I see the BOJ dumping treasuries this summer, which'll force down the USDJPY pair, and increase inflation here at home. When rates go down, borrowing money is easier, especially for junk corporations avoiding default due to decades high interest rates. Could AMEX:HYG fall back into the box one last time? Absolutely, if the dollar ticks higher after FED...
HYG broke its' 200 mda - RUT is following HYG down. RUT will likely follow it through the 200mda unless the Plunge Protection Team at the Federal Reserve comes to save it.
Corporate Bonds continue in their Bull Flag Channel. Bond market keeps telling us that the Fed cannot remain higher for longer. Not sure on timing, however, it wouldn't surprise me if we see the Fed reverse course in the some what near future.
I trade options so I look for the cheapest way to make the most amount of money. The most Delta for the least Theta. Last year it was MSTR, this year it is HYG and JNK. Record short positions on HYG started in March 2023 and it still continues today.... for example there are 20,000 puts on HYG expiring this Friday the 29th and 1370 puts.... that's a P/C of 14.54/1...
High yield corporate bonds show a significant correlation with the risk-on/risk-off sentiment for the S&P 500 (SPX). As we can observe, the current market structure resembles a wedge, which can technically serve as both support and resistance. To add complexity, we're currently at a channel resistance level, which also happens to be a historic trendline. This...
This comparison of High Yield (via $HYG) against TSY of similar maturities ($IEI). As the ratio starts to turn down, market gravitates towards risk off environment. Notice how it touches the trend line but doesn't break thru it.
Last squeeze before the eventual breakdown for risk assets.
The high-yield market (HYG) High yield and stocks are normally highly correlated and the HYG ETF often acts as a barometer for strength in the Stock market.. As you can see things have gotten tight here in the pennant and HYG not surprisingly has chopped around just like the Spy. Bears will see a H&S Long only over 75 (Weekly 50sma).. Short under 74.00...
HYG will have to be resolved in the coming two months, setting the stage for equities.
HYG daily bullish hammer above 100 day moving average if we break above we can run into 200
$HYG looks like it's about to fall. There's a H&S pattern forming on the 4Hr timeframe and price just rejected the 200DMA. Should price break support at $73.05, I think we'll see a quick move down to the $69 region, maybe even lower. I've taken some puts just incase this plays out.
daily frame....minor 1 completed with minor two starting towards 75
HYG hourly chart TIME is running OUT for the rally in SPY QQQ I have now moved back to 100 % cash sold the 75 % net long at 4144
The chart is what I have felt is the most important chart to watch for sometime . We rallied and stopped right at the trend line . I have watching this as to it will become an issue for the sp 500 going forward . best of trades WAVETIMER
Flashing big warning signs. You guys need to be really carful. All the gains can get wiped out in just a few days. Covid is proof where most stocks got halted while the prices are dropping like a stone.
Orange Line = SPX Blue Line = HYG/IEI = High Yield/U.S. Treasury Bonds Strong Correlation between HYG/IEI and SPX. Ascending Triangle pattern for HYG/IEI indicates more upside --> SPX to the moon.
HYG has made an inverse H-S-H pattern with an upward potential of approx. 10%, if the current break-out of its neckline is sustainably confirmed. In case this confirmation comes, we will have a valid confirmation of another bullish move of the S&P 500 towards 4400 points. Good to watch out and not to become bearish too early without enough evidence.
Nice breakout for junk bonds but had similar move before more weakness in last market downturn