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ARGENTINE PESO / U.S. DOLLAR

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USDARS: Target is 18.744We are at a very critical juncture in the market, and it's possible to see increased chances of a rally in oil and equities, and probably a dollar decline against emerging markets currencies, at least vs the yen, aussie and canadian. Argentina's monetary policy might make the selling pressure persist though, and we might see this target hit in little time. The consequences might be harsh, with price increases, and increased costs for employers, with improbable raises in the minimum wage, or at least not enough to accomodate basic expenses any middle class or lower family might have. That being said, I will update this chart if I change my view, for now, this is the setup on chart, and what makes sense with my country's fundamentals. Energy costs increase, despite falling crude, add to it rising crude, and it's even worse, so let's see how it pans out. This was a very rough adjustment, after years of holding a ceiling artificially, which did have its costs too. Good luck, fellow Argentinians. Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
ARSUSD: Long pesos, yes...long.Here I am with a little contrarian idea. There's a nice 15% spread to be filled when comparing the Argentine peso to the other South American economies. The stock market also took a nose dive and is poised to retrace, since it's possible that live cattle and soybeans will head up from this point (and the Merval has a healthy correlation with those two among other agriculturals, for obvious reasons). That being said, to my fellow countrymen, this is a nice low risk trade, upside is 15%, downside is merely 2%. Sell dollar for 13, buy back at 10-11, give or take, and or invest in other assets once we reach that target. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
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