Amazon (AMZN) BUYAmazon (AMZN), through AWS, is a hidden giant in AI. Its cloud division provides everything from custom AI chips to scalable machine learning platforms, which are used by start-ups and Fortune 500s alike.
AMZNC trade ideas
Amazon Is Up 44% Since April, But Its Chart Looks ProblematicAmazon NASDAQ:AMZN has been in an upward-sloping trend since early April, but the e-commerce giant is trailing the S&P 500 SP:SPX year to date and has fallen some 4% since its February all-time peak. Let's look at what the stock's chart says.
Amazon and the Macro Environment
Many would find it difficult to take on a short position or liquidate a long one on a major tech stock like Amazon just as Wall Street expects the Federal Reserve to pivot toward a significantly more-dovish policy stance.
But remember, Amazon is more than just a tech stock. It's also a major online retailer, the owner of a high-end brick-and-mortar grocer (Whole Foods), parent of a major consumer-discretionary product (Amazon Prime Video) and more.
Would it be as difficult to take a short position or liquidate a long one in such a name as the Fed goes into a dovish stance amid a U.S. labor market that's markedly weaker than anyone knew?
After the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics recently issued as massive downward annual to its Apil 2024/March 2025 job-creation numbers, Chief Bloomberg U.S. Economist Anna Wong argued that America could already be in a recession.
"When all the revisions for 2024 and 2025 are complete -- we won't get the final revisions until early 2026 and 2027 -- we expect they'll show the business cycle peaked around April 2024," she said.
"It's possible the economy is either still in recession, or is in the early phase of a new business cycle," said Wong, who formerly served as principal economist for the Federal Reserve Board.
It's not every day that a highly respected economist talks about backdating a recession by a year and half. That would be potentially bad news for a consumer-focused company like Amazon.
Amazon's Technical Analysis
Now let's look at Amazon's year-to-date chart as of Wednesday:
There are two patterns under development, both potentially bearish.
Readers will first note the potential development of a very large "double-top" pattern of bearish reversal, marked with two red boxes in the chart above.
This pattern's downside pivot would be way down at $161 vs. the $232.54 that AMZN was trading at Tuesday morning.
That would be a long way to go just to reach a pivot, and would also put a so-called "double-bottom" pattern into play.
Meanwhile, Amazon's chart also shows another potentially bearish set-up in the works with a more realistic pivot:
This chart shows an almost-completed "rising-wedge" pattern of bearish reversal with a realistic downside pivot that just happens to be Amazon's 50-day Simple Moving Average (or "SMA," marked with a blue line above).
Th 50-day SMA line is currently running alongside the rising-wedge pattern's power trendline. Amazon is also seeing potential support at its 200-day SMA (the red line above) as well.
However, the chart above shows what happened the last time AMZN came out of a rising wedge this past February, as marked with a purple-shaded area at the chart's left.
The stock fell nearly 30% from about $225 during February's third week to a $161.38 52-week low on April 7.
Meanwhile, Amazon's other technical indicators in the above chart don't tell us much just yet.
For instance, the stock's Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the chart's top) is still better than neutral, but sliding towards mediocrity.
Separately, AMZNs daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or "MACD," marked with black and gold lines and blue bars at the chart's bottom) is still technically postured bullishly -- but has some issues.
The histogram of Amazon's 9-day Exponential Moving Average (or "EMA," marked with blue bars) is still positive, but the 12-day EMA (the black line) is curling down towards the 26-day EMA (the gold line). A cross-under there would be a short- to medium-term bearish signal for the stock.
(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle had no position in AMZN at the time of writing this column.)
This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.
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AMZN Shorts are Losing GripHello I am the Cafe Trader.
Today we’re looking at Amazon
If you have followed my last couple Idea's on AMZN, we have really pegged down where these players are in the market.
This month I wanted to highlight the bullish sentiment with AMZN.
This chart shows us something important — shorts are losing grip. Every time they’ve tried to step in, the moves have been getting weaker and weaker. From the sharp -10% drop in early August, to the most recent -1.7% retracement, sellers are showing less conviction. Adding to this, there is a new Aggressor, a new buyer on the market looking to defend their position. This is putting a lot of pressure on the Strong supply, which is a key seller, and really the last one.
Green Scenario
If AMZN can push through this Strong Supply zone (around 235–240) and hold, then we open the door to a breakout higher. A close above the Strong Supply by the end of the week would really signal the beginning of shorts covering, and an extension toward the 250 area and beyond.
NOTE
If sellers manage to hold the line here one more time, I expect a dip back into the New Aggressor demand zone around 227–230. If these new buyers fail, we may be in for months of bear territory for AMZN.
Watch out for ATH's!
Follow and Boost, comment on some stocks you would like to see forecasted.
Happy Trading,
@thecafetrader
Amazon making it's way to next support $280Amazon seems to be overlooked at the moment, but it should start making bigger moves as it approaches $280 resistance (next support).
I see a lot of things that lead me to believe next year will have a big pullback in tech. Until then AMZN looks to have really good risk reward as it's still so close to it's long term trend line with revenue growth steadily increasing.
Good luck!
History of International Trade & Finance1. Early Civilizations and Barter Trade
1.1 The Origins of Trade
Trade began as simple bartering—exchanging one good for another. Ancient tribes swapped food, tools, and raw materials. Over time, trade networks extended across rivers, deserts, and seas.
Mesopotamia (3500 BCE onwards): Known as the “cradle of civilization,” Mesopotamians traded grain, textiles, and metals. Cuneiform tablets recorded trade contracts.
Indus Valley Civilization (2500 BCE): Had advanced trade with Mesopotamia; seals found in Mesopotamia prove this.
Ancient Egypt: Exchanged gold, papyrus, and grain with neighboring kingdoms.
China: Silk production started around 2700 BCE, later leading to the legendary Silk Road.
1.2 Rise of Currency
Barter had limitations—value mismatch and lack of divisibility. To solve this, money emerged:
Commodity money like salt, shells, and cattle.
Metallic coins (Lydia in 7th century BCE) became a global standard.
Precious metals like gold and silver gained universal acceptance, laying the foundation for finance.
2. Classical Empires and Trade Routes
2.1 The Silk Road
The Silk Road (200 BCE – 1400 CE) was the greatest ancient trade route, linking China, India, Persia, and Rome. It carried silk, spices, glassware, and ideas. More than goods, it spread culture, religion, and technology.
2.2 Roman Trade Networks
Rome imported grain from Egypt, spices from India, and silk from China. Roman finance developed banking houses, credit, and promissory notes. Roman coins (denarii) were used across Europe and Asia.
2.3 Indian Ocean Trade
Arab merchants dominated sea routes. Dhows carried spices, ivory, and textiles. The monsoon winds made seasonal navigation predictable. Indian and Chinese merchants thrived here, creating one of the earliest examples of global maritime trade finance.
3. The Middle Ages and Islamic Finance
3.1 European Trade Revival
After the fall of Rome, Europe faced decline. But by the 11th century, trade revived:
Medieval fairs in France became major trade hubs.
Italian city-states (Venice, Genoa, Florence) dominated Mediterranean trade.
3.2 The Rise of Islamic Finance
Islamic empires (7th – 13th centuries) expanded trade from Spain to India. Key contributions:
Bills of exchange (suftaja) allowed merchants to travel without carrying gold.
Hawala system enabled money transfers through trust networks, avoiding risks of theft.
Introduction of credit instruments helped finance caravans and voyages.
4. The Age of Exploration (15th – 17th Century)
4.1 Maritime Expansion
European powers—Portugal, Spain, later Britain and the Netherlands—launched voyages for spices, silk, and gold.
Vasco da Gama reached India (1498).
Columbus discovered the Americas (1492).
Magellan circumnavigated the globe (1519–22).
4.2 Mercantilism and Colonial Trade
The mercantilist system dominated: nations sought to maximize exports, minimize imports, and accumulate gold. Colonies became suppliers of raw materials and consumers of finished goods.
4.3 Birth of Modern Finance
To finance risky voyages, new institutions emerged:
Joint-stock companies (e.g., Dutch East India Company, British East India Company).
Amsterdam Stock Exchange (1602) – world’s first modern stock market.
Insurance (Lloyd’s of London) protected ships and cargo.
This era established the deep link between trade, finance, and empire-building.
5. The Industrial Revolution (18th – 19th Century)
5.1 Transformation of Trade
The Industrial Revolution (1760–1840) changed everything:
Steam engines, textile machines, and iron production boosted manufacturing.
Mass production required raw materials (cotton, coal, iron ore) and expanded markets.
Global trade networks intensified.
5.2 Finance in the Industrial Age
The gold standard emerged, fixing currencies to gold reserves.
Banks expanded credit to industries.
London became the financial capital of the world.
Railroads and steamships were financed through international capital markets.
5.3 Colonial Exploitation
European empires extracted resources from colonies—India, Africa, Southeast Asia. The colonial economy was designed to feed Europe’s industrial growth, shaping global trade imbalances that persist even today.
6. Early 20th Century: Globalization and Crises
6.1 Pre–World War I Globalization
By 1900, global trade was booming:
Free trade policies spread.
Telegraphs and steamships made commerce faster.
Capital flowed across borders, mainly from Britain and France to colonies.
6.2 The Great Depression (1929–39)
The Wall Street Crash led to worldwide financial collapse:
Global trade shrank by two-thirds.
Countries imposed tariffs (e.g., Smoot-Hawley Act in the U.S.).
Protectionism deepened the crisis.
6.3 World Wars and Finance
Both World Wars disrupted trade but also advanced technology. Finance shifted towards war bonds, government borrowing, and central bank intervention. The U.S. emerged as a financial superpower after WWII.
7. The Bretton Woods System (1944 – 1971)
7.1 Establishing New Institutions
In 1944, world leaders met at Bretton Woods (USA) to design a new economic order. Key outcomes:
Creation of IMF (International Monetary Fund) to stabilize currencies.
Creation of World Bank for reconstruction and development.
U.S. dollar linked to gold ($35 per ounce), other currencies pegged to the dollar.
7.2 Expansion of Global Trade
GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, 1947) reduced tariffs.
Europe rebuilt under the Marshall Plan.
Japan and Germany emerged as industrial powers again.
8. Collapse of Bretton Woods & Rise of Global Finance (1971 onwards)
8.1 Nixon Shocks and Floating Exchange Rates
In 1971, U.S. President Richard Nixon ended dollar-gold convertibility. Result:
Shift to floating exchange rates.
Rise of foreign exchange markets (Forex).
8.2 Oil Shocks and Petrodollar System
The 1973 oil crisis reshaped global finance. Oil was priced in dollars, reinforcing U.S. dominance. Oil-rich nations invested surplus revenues into Western banks—known as petrodollar recycling.
8.3 Financial Deregulation (1980s–90s)
Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan promoted free markets.
Liberalization allowed capital to flow freely.
Growth of multinational corporations (MNCs).
Stock markets, derivatives, and hedge funds expanded dramatically.1. Early Civilizations and Barter Trade
1.1 The Origins of Trade
Trade began as simple bartering—exchanging one good for another. Ancient tribes swapped food, tools, and raw materials. Over time, trade networks extended across rivers, deserts, and seas.
Mesopotamia (3500 BCE onwards): Known as the “cradle of civilization,” Mesopotamians traded grain, textiles, and metals. Cuneiform tablets recorded trade contracts.
Indus Valley Civilization (2500 BCE): Had advanced trade with Mesopotamia; seals found in Mesopotamia prove this.
Ancient Egypt: Exchanged gold, papyrus, and grain with neighboring kingdoms.
China: Silk production started around 2700 BCE, later leading to the legendary Silk Road.
1.2 Rise of Currency
Barter had limitations—value mismatch and lack of divisibility. To solve this, money emerged:
Commodity money like salt, shells, and cattle.
Metallic coins (Lydia in 7th century BCE) became a global standard.
Precious metals like gold and silver gained universal acceptance, laying the foundation for finance.
2. Classical Empires and Trade Routes
2.1 The Silk Road
The Silk Road (200 BCE – 1400 CE) was the greatest ancient trade route, linking China, India, Persia, and Rome. It carried silk, spices, glassware, and ideas. More than goods, it spread culture, religion, and technology.
2.2 Roman Trade Networks
Rome imported grain from Egypt, spices from India, and silk from China. Roman finance developed banking houses, credit, and promissory notes. Roman coins (denarii) were used across Europe and Asia.
2.3 Indian Ocean Trade
Arab merchants dominated sea routes. Dhows carried spices, ivory, and textiles. The monsoon winds made seasonal navigation predictable. Indian and Chinese merchants thrived here, creating one of the earliest examples of global maritime trade finance.
3. The Middle Ages and Islamic Finance
3.1 European Trade Revival
After the fall of Rome, Europe faced decline. But by the 11th century, trade revived:
Medieval fairs in France became major trade hubs.
Italian city-states (Venice, Genoa, Florence) dominated Mediterranean trade.
3.2 The Rise of Islamic Finance
Islamic empires (7th – 13th centuries) expanded trade from Spain to India. Key contributions:
Bills of exchange (suftaja) allowed merchants to travel without carrying gold.
Hawala system enabled money transfers through trust networks, avoiding risks of theft.
Introduction of credit instruments helped finance caravans and voyages.
4. The Age of Exploration (15th – 17th Century)
4.1 Maritime Expansion
European powers—Portugal, Spain, later Britain and the Netherlands—launched voyages for spices, silk, and gold.
Vasco da Gama reached India (1498).
Columbus discovered the Americas (1492).
Magellan circumnavigated the globe (1519–22).
4.2 Mercantilism and Colonial Trade
The mercantilist system dominated: nations sought to maximize exports, minimize imports, and accumulate gold. Colonies became suppliers of raw materials and consumers of finished goods.
4.3 Birth of Modern Finance
To finance risky voyages, new institutions emerged:
Joint-stock companies (e.g., Dutch East India Company, British East India Company).
Amsterdam Stock Exchange (1602) – world’s first modern stock market.
Insurance (Lloyd’s of London) protected ships and cargo.
This era established the deep link between trade, finance, and empire-building.
5. The Industrial Revolution (18th – 19th Century)
5.1 Transformation of Trade
The Industrial Revolution (1760–1840) changed everything:
Steam engines, textile machines, and iron production boosted manufacturing.
Mass production required raw materials (cotton, coal, iron ore) and expanded markets.
Global trade networks intensified.
5.2 Finance in the Industrial Age
The gold standard emerged, fixing currencies to gold reserves.
Banks expanded credit to industries.
London became the financial capital of the world.
Railroads and steamships were financed through international capital markets.
5.3 Colonial Exploitation
European empires extracted resources from colonies—India, Africa, Southeast Asia. The colonial economy was designed to feed Europe’s industrial growth, shaping global trade imbalances that persist even today.
6. Early 20th Century: Globalization and Crises
6.1 Pre–World War I Globalization
By 1900, global trade was booming:
Free trade policies spread.
Telegraphs and steamships made commerce faster.
Capital flowed across borders, mainly from Britain and France to colonies.
6.2 The Great Depression (1929–39)
The Wall Street Crash led to worldwide financial collapse:
Global trade shrank by two-thirds.
Countries imposed tariffs (e.g., Smoot-Hawley Act in the U.S.).
Protectionism deepened the crisis.
6.3 World Wars and Finance
Both World Wars disrupted trade but also advanced technology. Finance shifted towards war bonds, government borrowing, and central bank intervention. The U.S. emerged as a financial superpower after WWII.
7. The Bretton Woods System (1944 – 1971)
7.1 Establishing New Institutions
In 1944, world leaders met at Bretton Woods (USA) to design a new economic order. Key outcomes:
Creation of IMF (International Monetary Fund) to stabilize currencies.
Creation of World Bank for reconstruction and development.
U.S. dollar linked to gold ($35 per ounce), other currencies pegged to the dollar.
7.2 Expansion of Global Trade
GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, 1947) reduced tariffs.
Europe rebuilt under the Marshall Plan.
Japan and Germany emerged as industrial powers again.
8. Collapse of Bretton Woods & Rise of Global Finance (1971 onwards)
8.1 Nixon Shocks and Floating Exchange Rates
In 1971, U.S. President Richard Nixon ended dollar-gold convertibility. Result:
Shift to floating exchange rates.
Rise of foreign exchange markets (Forex).
8.2 Oil Shocks and Petrodollar System
The 1973 oil crisis reshaped global finance. Oil was priced in dollars, reinforcing U.S. dominance. Oil-rich nations invested surplus revenues into Western banks—known as petrodollar recycling.
8.3 Financial Deregulation (1980s–90s)
Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan promoted free markets.
Liberalization allowed capital to flow freely.
Growth of multinational corporations (MNCs).
Stock markets, derivatives, and hedge funds expanded dramatically.
9. Globalization Era (1990s – 2008)
9.1 WTO and Free Trade
In 1995, the World Trade Organization (WTO) replaced GATT, enforcing trade rules. Globalization accelerated:
Outsourcing and offshoring.
China became “the world’s factory.”
NAFTA and EU expanded regional trade blocs.
9.2 Rise of Emerging Markets
India, Brazil, Russia, and China (BRIC nations) became major players. Foreign direct investment (FDI) surged.
9.3 Asian Financial Crisis (1997–98)
Currency collapses in Thailand, Indonesia, and South Korea exposed risks of free capital flows. IMF bailouts highlighted tensions between sovereignty and global finance.
10. The 2008 Global Financial Crisis
The collapse of Lehman Brothers triggered the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Causes:
Excessive lending, subprime mortgages.
Complex derivatives (CDOs, credit default swaps).
Weak regulation.
Impact:
World trade contracted sharply.
Governments rescued banks with bailouts.
Central banks adopted quantitative easing (QE)—printing money to stabilize economies.
11. The 21st Century: Digital Trade and Fintech
11.1 Rise of Digital Economy
E-commerce giants (Amazon, Alibaba) revolutionized trade.
Services trade (IT outsourcing, digital platforms) grew faster than goods trade.
Data became a new form of currency.
11.2 Fintech and Cryptocurrencies
Mobile payments (PayPal, UPI, Alipay) expanded financial inclusion.
Blockchain and Bitcoin challenged traditional banking.
Central banks began exploring CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies).
11.3 China vs. U.S. Rivalry
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) reshaped global trade finance. The U.S.-China trade war (2018 onwards) revealed deep tensions in globalization.
12. COVID-19 Pandemic and Supply Chain Shocks
The 2020 pandemic disrupted global trade:
Supply chains collapsed.
Oil prices turned negative temporarily.
Governments injected trillions into economies.
Digital trade accelerated massively.
The crisis highlighted the risks of overdependence on global supply chains.
13. Future of International Trade & Finance
13.1 Green Trade and Sustainable Finance
Climate change is shaping global trade policies:
Carbon taxes on imports.
Green finance for renewable projects.
13.2 Multipolar Trade World
India, ASEAN, and Africa rising as key players.
Decline of Western dominance.
13.3 AI, Automation & Decentralized Finance (DeFi)
Artificial intelligence is transforming logistics, stock markets, and risk management. Blockchain-based DeFi could replace traditional banking intermediaries.
Conclusion
The history of international trade and finance is a story of innovation, expansion, crisis, and adaptation. From Mesopotamian barter to today’s AI-driven digital finance, humans have constantly sought ways to connect across borders.
Key lessons:
Trade thrives on trust, finance, and institutions.
Every era of expansion faces crises that reshape the system.
The future will be defined by sustainability, digital innovation, and geopolitical shifts.
In essence, trade and finance are not just economic activities—they are engines of civilization, shaping politics, culture, and human destiny.
Using Amazon as an example to write about intrinsic valueThe beautiful thing about equities, is that we can determine what the stock should be worth based on the future cash flows the company generates. It is called intrinsic value and professional investors often use this calculation to help them make higher quality decisions. The primary method of calculation is called discount cash flow. When building a DCF model is is recommended to use Wall Streets estimates to keep an unbiased opinion.
Understanding the concept of discount cash flow, is like understanding the calculations behind any technical indicator, the thing about intrinsic value is that it is a fundamental indication not just technical. Equities go up, because companies are generating cash flows. Unlike commodities, which are only valued based on the general consensus of voters.
It was Benjamin Graham the father of value investing who said, in the short term the market is a voting machine, but in the long term the market is a weighing machine. There is a fantastic book I read called The Intelligent Investor written by Benjamin Graham I highly recommend giving it a read if your serious about making money in the market over the long term.
Intrinsic value is the fundamental, true worth of an asset or business, as determined by an objective analysis of its financial performance and future cash flow potential. It is a crucial concept for investors, especially value investors, who use it to identify assets that are undervalued or overvalued by the market.
Focusing on fundamentals helps investors avoid overpaying for assets and reduces the risk of permanent capital loss. If a stock's market price is significantly lower than its calculated intrinsic value, it may be undervalued and a good buying opportunity. The difference is often called a "margin of safety". Intrinsic value is based on an asset's long-term potential, encouraging a focus on sustainable growth and stability rather than short-term market noise.
Now onto Amazon stock, according to my model the intrinsic value of Amazon is as of this writing $260 meaning that fundamentally it is still undervalued. Take this with a grain of salt because if you create a model using the discount cash flows of the company over the next 5 or 10 years you might get wildly different results. This is why it is essential to understand the calculation for yourself instead of just taking my word for it. This is a highly speculative calculation, it can also become relatively complicated.
Lets compare two individuals performance over the course of their career, I would like to write about Dr. Al Brooks, often referred to as the king of price action by CME group, and Warren Buffett, one of the most successful investors and richest men in the world. Al Brooks, the day traders net worth is about $750 million dollars over the course of his career in the market. Warren Buffett has a net worth of about $150 billion dollars. One is a trader, the other an investor. So where am I going with this?
Everyone wants to get rich quick, everyone starts thinking they will be a trader. 90% of traders permanently lose their capital never to make it back and often times quitting participating in the market. The 10% of traders who are actually profitable, aren't making as much money as you would think, as per the comparison above. The average investor over the course of their lifetime will make 150x more money than the best traders. For me, I fell into the 90% category, trading didn't work for me, after reading The Intelligent Investor, the money starting coming into my account almost effortlessly.
Dear reader, this article was written by me for my own entertainment. Please do not take anything I have written too literally, always do what works best for you and always remember, whatever your doing, you should be having fun. Cheers
$AMZN - bottom of the channel bounce hereAMZN - Stock bouncing off bottom of the channel. on high watch if move higher here we can see top of the channel at $250. Stock has all time highs at $242.52 area. could see that break soon post Rate cut.
AMAZON STROCK MOVING IN BULLISH TREND STRUCTUREBased on a clear bullish trend structure, Amazon stock (AMZN) is demonstrating sustained upward momentum. The price action is currently situated within what is technically identified as a secondary trend phase. This phase often represents a healthy consolidation or a brief pause within the larger primary uptrend, allowing the market to gather strength before its next potential leg higher. Consequently, price is expected to maintain its bullish bias in the upcoming trading session, with buyers likely to remain in control.
The broader outlook remains optimistic following a significant bullish trend reversal. This reversal has established a firm foundation for a continued rally, with a key upside price target projected at the $242.00 level. This objective represents a substantial resistance zone that the market may test if the prevailing momentum continues.
On the downside, any short-term pullbacks are expected to find a strong layer of defense near the $210.00 price level. This area is anticipated to act as a crucial support floor, a point where renewed buying interest could emerge to propel the price back upward within the dominant bullish framework. This creates a scenario where the path of least resistance remains pointed north, supported by a well-defined risk level.
How to recognize the Fundamentals Support in a stock chart.Candlesticks are more than just a buy entry signal or a sell short entry signal. Candlesticks offer far more information such as where are the fundamentals of a company in relation to its stock price? The chart of AMZN shows the current level of fundamentals at this time which is within the outlined price level. AMZN is an excellent example of a company that is prospering during a time of rising tariffs and trade wars.
AMZN chart also show Buy Side "Support the Market" activity and quiet accumulation for much of this year. The steady rise of Accum/Dist is a pattern in the indicator that represents quiet accumulation over time.
Reminder: When Dark Pools are in accumulation mode they do not move price in huge price action. The candles will be small, uniform, and periodic. TWAP orders, Time Weighted at Average Price are used to set an automatic ping to buy when a stock falls below the fundamental level of a sideways trend. Fundamentals are always sideways trends.
If the stock moves beyond the high price set for the TWAP order, then the accumulation buying ping halts and waits.
Therefore, you can see the area where the majority of Dark Pool TWAP orders are buying and when the orders pause.
This is very useful information as Professional Independent Traders are monitoring the Dark Pool Buy Zone and will buy with the Dark Pools in anticipation that the liquidity draw is going to drive price upward suddenly as HFTs AI suddenly find the liquidity draw which occurs slowly over time, often several months.
AMZN 1H + GEX Game Plan for Tue, Sep 16AMZN Compressing Under 239 Gamma Wall — Breakout or Reversal? 🚀
Market Structure (1-Hour View)
* Current action: Amazon is consolidating inside a mild rising channel after rebounding from ~225 support.
* Trend context: Price is holding above short-term trendline support near 228–229, but momentum is flattening after an early push.
* Momentum: MACD rolling over with shrinking histogram; Stoch RSI near the lower zone — suggesting a pause or small dip before the next move.
Key Levels to Watch
* Resistance: 233.7–234.0 (intraday lid), 239.0 (big gamma wall / call resistance), and 244.0 (stretch target).
* Support: 228.1–226.3, with stronger demand around 225.0 (major gamma pivot).
GEX Read (Sep 16)
* Highest positive NETGEX / Gamma resistance: 239.0
* 2nd Call Wall: 244.0, 3rd near 250–255.
* Put walls / magnets: 225.0 (big HVL and gamma support), then 215.0–210.0.
* Options sentiment: Calls ~24%, IVR ~8.9, IVx ~31 → moderate implied volatility, option premiums relatively low.
Implication:
* Dealers may aim to pin AMZN between 225 and 239 unless a fresh catalyst breaks the range.
* Break above 234 with strong volume sets up a squeeze toward 239 and potentially 244.
* Lose 226 and price can drift toward 225 and possibly 215.
Trade Scenarios
1) Bullish Breakout
* Trigger: Hourly close >234 with clear momentum uptick.
* Entry: 234–235 on retest.
* Targets: 239 → 244.
* Stop: Below 231.5.
Options: 235/239 call debit spread for this week.
2) Range Fade
* Trigger: Failure to hold above 233.5 with a rejection wick.
* Entry: 233 short.
* Targets: 228 → 226.
* Stop: Above 235.
Options: 233P or 233/226 put spread for a quick fade.
3) Breakdown
* Trigger: 1H close <226 with failed retest.
* Entry: 225.5 short.
* Targets: 222 → 215.
* Stop: Above 228.
Options: 225/215 put spread if momentum accelerates.
Scalping & Swing Notes
* Early session watch 231–233: acceptance above leans long; repeated rejection favors short scalps back to 228.
* EMA/VWAP retests that hold above 229–230 offer low-risk long entries.
Risk & Management
* Low IV makes debit call spreads efficient.
* Use tight stops if fading near 234–239, as a break above 239 can trigger fast gamma-driven upside.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always manage risk and trade your own plan.
AMZN: Eyeing 240 After a Healthy Pullback – Swing & Scalp Sep 171-Hour Chart Technical View
Amazon’s 1-hour chart shows a well-defined rising channel after breaking out from a mid-September base near $226. The stock tagged $234 and is now easing off slightly—a normal pullback inside a fresh uptrend. MACD momentum is flattening but still positive, and Stoch RSI is cooling from overbought levels, signaling a short-term breather rather than a trend change.
* Immediate Support: $232.5 and $231.4 (key intraday demand)
* Major Support: $226.3 HVL (Sept 19 zone)
* Upside Zone: $237.5 to $240 is the near-term target area; a breakout could carry to $242.5–$245
The 9 EMA remains above the 21 EMA, confirming bullish structure as long as $231.4 holds.
GEX & Options Flow
Options positioning shows constructive call-side pressure:
* Call Walls: $237.5 (3rd call wall), $240 (highest positive NET GEX / gamma resistance), then $242.5–$245.
* Put Support: $222.5 and $217.5 mark major downside hedges.
* GEX Bias: Positive gamma with 25.4% calls and IVR at 8.8 (IVx ~31.3) indicate moderate premium costs and a controlled upward bias.
This configuration generally encourages dip-buying and limits sharp downside unless $231 gives way.
Trade Thoughts & Suggestions
* Swing Idea: Buy pullbacks into $232.5–$231.4 with a stop below $230, aiming for $237.5–$240, with $242.5–$245 as a stretch target.
* Scalp Idea: Focus on quick reversals near $231.4 for long entries, or scalp a breakout if $237.5 is taken out with strong volume.
* Bearish Scenario: A decisive break under $230 could shift bias toward $226.3 and lower.
Quick Take
AMZN’s trend is firm and supported by bullish gamma. For Sept 17, dips toward $232 are attractive for intraday scalps and swing entries aiming for a retest of $240 and beyond.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk before trading.
Amazon Long towards $250 - $280Amazon’s price is currently testing $228, near a key resistance at $242.52 — aligning with its 2023 high and the upper boundary of an 18-month ascending channel. A sustained breakout above $242.52 would confirm bullish momentum, backed by strong 2025 fundamentals: AWS operating income projected to exceed $30B (up from $23.7B in 2023), advertising revenue targeting $60B+ (vs. $44.8B in 2023), e-commerce sales expected to surpass $500B, and operating margins expanding to 7.5–8.0% from 6.7%, driven by AI efficiency, Prime growth, and cost discipline. With $40B+ in cash and no near-term debt, Amazon is financially resilient. A breakout could trigger a move to $270–$280, based on a 20x forward P/E applied to 2025 EPS estimates of $13.50–$14.00. Failure to clear $242.52 risks a retest of $220 support; a break below $210 would signal deteriorating sentiment. Price action must confirm the fundamentals — the target remains $270–$280 only on a confirmed, volume-backed breakout.
AMZN Ascending Triangle + Inverse Head and ShouldersAmazon has been bouncing off the trendline several times in the last couple weeks. It's formed an inverse head and shoulders last couple months and the last couple weeks has formed an ascending triangle. 235-245 area has had a bit of resistance last couple months, and AMZN recently rejected off the 240 this week. There is a potential for a double top, but with the right volume and momentum it can break through it just like Google did not too long ago (had a similar setup). Rate Cuts could be coming soon, and there was some put (bearish) flow on SPY and QQQ so there is a possibility for another looming rejection for amazon. However, I'm leaning bullish long as there's been strong Amazon Call flow, and its due for its breakout with the rest of the mag7s. The patterns are bullish, EMA's bullish, market sentiment overall could be bullish, options flow is bullish, AMZN has potential... nfa.
International Payment Gateways1. Introduction
In today’s digital economy, global trade is no longer limited to large corporations. From small businesses to freelancers, millions of people engage in cross-border transactions every day. A consumer in India can order a gadget from the U.S., a freelancer in Africa can work for a client in Europe, and a retailer in Asia can sell to buyers worldwide. The lifeline that makes all this possible is the International Payment Gateway (IPG).
At its core, an international payment gateway is the digital bridge that securely facilitates financial transactions between buyers and sellers across borders. It ensures that when a customer pays in one country, the funds are processed, converted, and settled appropriately in the seller’s account, regardless of geographic location.
This article explores the concept of international payment gateways in detail—what they are, how they work, their benefits, challenges, and future outlook.
2. What is an International Payment Gateway?
An International Payment Gateway (IPG) is a technology platform that allows merchants and businesses to accept payments from customers around the world. It acts as a middleman between the merchant’s website (or app) and the bank or financial network that processes the payment.
Key Functions
Authorization – Verifies whether the customer has sufficient funds or credit.
Authentication – Confirms the legitimacy of the transaction and prevents fraud.
Processing – Transmits transaction details securely to banks or card networks.
Settlement – Transfers the funds to the merchant’s bank account.
Currency Conversion – Converts customer payments into the merchant’s preferred currency.
In simple words, a payment gateway is like a virtual cash register for online businesses, but with global reach.
3. Evolution of International Payment Gateways
The journey of payment gateways has evolved alongside the growth of e-commerce:
1990s – Early days of online shopping, simple credit card processors emerged.
2000s – Rise of PayPal and other digital wallets made cross-border payments easier.
2010s – Mobile payments, API-driven gateways (like Stripe), and global reach.
2020s and beyond – Blockchain-based solutions, AI-driven fraud prevention, and seamless multi-currency wallets dominate the market.
Today, gateways not only process payments but also provide fraud protection, analytics, compliance, and global settlement infrastructure.
4. How International Payment Gateways Work
Let’s simplify the complex flow of cross-border transactions into steps:
Step 1: Customer Initiates Payment
A customer selects a product/service and chooses a payment method (credit card, debit card, digital wallet, UPI, PayPal, etc.).
Step 2: Encryption
The gateway encrypts sensitive information (card details, banking info) to ensure security.
Step 3: Routing to Processor
The data is sent to the acquiring bank (merchant’s bank) via the gateway.
Step 4: Communication with Card Networks
The acquiring bank sends the request to the card network (Visa, Mastercard, Amex, etc.), which then routes it to the issuing bank (customer’s bank).
Step 5: Authorization
The issuing bank checks funds, fraud risks, and authenticity before approving or declining.
Step 6: Response Sent Back
The authorization result is sent back through the same chain—card network → acquiring bank → gateway → merchant website.
Step 7: Settlement
If approved, funds are deducted from the customer’s account, converted into the merchant’s currency if needed, and deposited into the merchant’s bank account (usually within a few days).
5. Features of International Payment Gateways
Modern international gateways offer a wide range of features:
Multi-Currency Support – Customers can pay in their own currency.
Multiple Payment Methods – Credit cards, debit cards, wallets, bank transfers, cryptocurrencies.
Fraud Prevention – AI-driven monitoring, 3D Secure authentication, tokenization.
Compliance – Adheres to PCI DSS (Payment Card Industry Data Security Standard) and regional regulations.
Recurring Billing – Useful for subscriptions and SaaS businesses.
Mobile Integration – Seamless payments on apps and mobile sites.
Analytics & Reporting – Insights into transactions, chargebacks, and customer behavior.
6. Types of International Payment Gateways
There are several categories of gateways based on their functionality and business models:
1. Hosted Gateways
Redirect customers to the gateway’s payment page (e.g., PayPal, Razorpay checkout).
Easy to integrate, but less control over user experience.
2. Integrated Gateways
Customers enter payment details directly on the merchant’s site.
Requires PCI compliance but offers better branding and user experience.
3. API-Based Gateways
Offer advanced flexibility, customization, and direct integration with apps/websites.
Examples: Stripe, Adyen.
4. Localized Gateways
Cater to regional markets with local currency and payment methods.
Example: Alipay (China), Paytm (India).
5. Cryptocurrency Gateways
Enable payments via Bitcoin, Ethereum, or stablecoins.
Examples: BitPay, CoinGate.
7. Major Players in the International Payment Gateway Industry
Some leading international payment gateways include:
PayPal – Global leader in cross-border digital wallets.
Stripe – Popular with startups and developers for API-based integration.
Adyen – Enterprise-focused, used by companies like Uber and Spotify.
Worldpay – Long-standing provider with global reach.
Authorize.Net – One of the earliest online payment gateways.
2Checkout (now Verifone) – Multi-currency global payments.
Alipay & WeChat Pay – Dominant in China.
Payoneer – Widely used for freelancer payments worldwide.
Razorpay, PayU, CCAvenue – Strong players in India.
8. Benefits of International Payment Gateways
For businesses and consumers, these gateways bring immense advantages:
For Businesses
Access to global customers.
Increased sales through diverse payment methods.
Automated conversion and settlement in preferred currency.
Fraud protection and security compliance.
Easy integration with websites, apps, and e-commerce platforms.
For Customers
Convenience of paying in local currency.
Wide choice of payment methods.
Secure and fast transactions.
Global access to products and services.
9. Challenges of International Payment Gateways
Despite their benefits, IPGs face challenges:
High Transaction Fees – Cross-border fees, currency conversion, and settlement charges can be expensive.
Regulatory Compliance – Different countries have varying rules (KYC, AML, data protection).
Fraud & Chargebacks – International transactions are riskier and prone to disputes.
Currency Volatility – Exchange rate fluctuations affect settlements.
Technical Integration – API complexity and ongoing maintenance can be challenging.
Limited Accessibility – Some regions lack reliable banking or digital infrastructure.
10. International Payment Gateway Regulations
To operate globally, gateways must adhere to strict rules:
PCI DSS Compliance – Ensures cardholder data protection.
KYC (Know Your Customer) & AML (Anti-Money Laundering) – Prevents illicit financial activities.
GDPR (General Data Protection Regulation) – Governs data privacy in the EU.
Local Regulations – RBI (India), FCA (UK), SEC (US), etc.
Conclusion
International Payment Gateways are the unsung heroes of the digital economy. They ensure that whether you’re a small Etsy seller in India, a freelancer in Africa, or a corporation in America, you can send and receive payments globally with just a few clicks.
While challenges like high fees, fraud risks, and regulatory hurdles remain, the benefits far outweigh them. As technology advances—with blockchain, AI, and digital currencies—payment gateways will become even faster, cheaper, and more secure.
In essence, International Payment Gateways are not just about payments—they are about enabling global trade, financial inclusion, and the future of borderless commerce.
AMZN $240 Weekly Call — Tactical Play for Quick Gains
🚀 **AMZN Weekly Options Alert — \$240 Call Could Double in 4 Days!**
**Directional View:** **Strong-to-Moderate Bullish** 💹
**Confidence:** 75%
**Trade Setup:**
* **Instrument:** AMZN
* **Strategy:** BUY CALL (single-leg)
* **Strike:** \$240
* **Expiry:** 2025-09-12 (4 DTE)
* **Entry Price:** \$0.68 (ask at open)
* **Size:** 1 contract
**Targets & Risk:**
* **Profit Target:** \$1.36 (100% gain)
* **Partial Profit:** \$1.02 (50% gain)
* **Stop Loss:** \$0.34 (50% of premium)
* **Exit Rule:** Close everything by Thursday 15:30 ET to avoid gamma/theta risk
**Why This Trade?**
✅ Weekly RSI rising (71.5) + expanding weekly volume (1.3x) → bullish momentum
✅ Strong call skew (C/P 1.99) → institutional positioning
✅ Low VIX (\~15.2) → cheaper premiums, directional edge
✅ Strike \$240 slightly OTM with **high liquidity** (OI 24,202)
**Key Risks:**
⚠️ Falling daily RSI (59.9) → short-term consolidation possible
⚠️ 4-DTE weekly → high gamma/theta; strict stop mandatory
⚠️ Unexpected news or sector moves could spike IV or widen spreads
⚠️ High OI may create pinning behavior near \$240
**Quick Takeaway:**
* Tactical **short-term bullish weekly trade**
* Exploits **momentum + options flow + liquidity**
* Strict **risk management**: stop at 50% and exit by Thursday
* Partial profits at 50%, full target at 100% gain
---
📊 **TRADE DETAILS (JSON)**
```json
{
"instrument": "AMZN",
"direction": "call",
"strike": 240.0,
"expiry": "2025-09-12",
"confidence": 0.75,
"profit_target": 1.36,
"stop_loss": 0.34,
"size": 1,
"entry_price": 0.68,
"entry_timing": "open",
"signal_publish_time": "2025-09-08 10:11:13 UTC-04:00"
}
```
I am buying AMAZONI am buying AMAZON
Amazon's stock lost over 10% last week, marking a significant decline within just one week.
I will start buying using dollar cost averaging (DCA) with $240 as my long-term to mid-term target.
I will hold
Please like, share, comment and follow.
I look forward to connecting with you
Next week to $230 or $235. Long Term it wants $200 again...Gex levels as seen in my chart show that we are very over sold to the down side (UNLESS GEX LEVELS COMPLETLY CHANGE) we will see $230-$235 by end of this month.
The entire tech market and equities are a buy the dip and sell the rip before September.
Buy calls and sell at $230 & $235, boom money made.
8/1/25 - AMZN: new SELL mechanical trading signal.8/1/25 - AMZN: new SELL signal chosen by a rules based, mechanical trading system.
AMZN - SELL SHORT
Stop Loss @ 234.11
Entry SELL SHORT @ 214.75
Target Profit @ 181.53
Analysis:
Higher timeframe: Prices have stayed below the upper channel line of the ATR (Average True Range) Keltner Channel and reversed.
Higher timeframe: Victor Sperandeo's (Trader Vic) classic 1-2-3/2B SELL pattern...where the current highest top breakout price is less or only slightly peaking higher than the preceding top price.
Global Soft Commodity Trading1. What Are Soft Commodities?
Soft commodities are agricultural products that are cultivated, harvested, and consumed globally. They are often seasonal, perishable, and dependent on climatic conditions. The main categories include:
Grains & Oilseeds
Wheat
Corn (maize)
Soybeans
Barley
Rice
Tropical Products
Coffee (Arabica, Robusta)
Cocoa
Sugar
Fibers
Cotton
Wool
Livestock & Others
Orange juice
Lumber
Dairy (in some markets)
These commodities are not only traded for consumption but also serve as raw materials for industries (e.g., cotton for textiles, soybeans for animal feed, sugar for ethanol production).
2. Historical Evolution of Soft Commodity Trading
Soft commodity trading is as old as civilization itself. The rise of agriculture allowed communities to specialize and trade surplus harvests for other goods. Some key historical milestones include:
Ancient Civilizations: Wheat and barley were traded in Mesopotamia, rice in Asia, and cotton in India and Egypt.
Medieval Period: The spice trade connected Asia to Europe, paving the way for global trading routes.
Colonial Era: European colonial powers exploited tropical regions for sugar, cotton, cocoa, and coffee plantations, fueling global demand.
Industrial Revolution: The textile boom drove massive cotton demand, while sugar and cocoa became staples in Western diets.
20th Century: Modern futures exchanges like the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) formalized grain trading, creating standardized contracts.
21st Century: Technology, globalization, and financialization have turned soft commodities into highly liquid and globally traded assets.
3. Key Global Soft Commodities and Their Markets
3.1 Coffee
Second most traded commodity after crude oil (by value).
Grown mainly in Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, and Ethiopia.
Traded on ICE Futures U.S. (Intercontinental Exchange).
Prices are highly sensitive to weather, pests, and demand from developed countries.
3.2 Cocoa
Primary ingredient in chocolate.
Grown mainly in West Africa (Ivory Coast, Ghana), with smaller producers in Indonesia and Latin America.
Highly volatile due to labor conditions, political instability, and climate.
3.3 Cotton
Integral to the textile industry.
Major producers: India, China, USA, Pakistan.
Traded on ICE Cotton No.2 futures.
Sensitive to weather, pests, and industrial demand.
3.4 Sugar
Dual use: food consumption & biofuel (ethanol).
Brazil is the largest producer and exporter.
Weather patterns (El Niño/La Niña) impact global supply.
3.5 Grains (Wheat, Corn, Rice, Soybeans)
Staple foods for billions worldwide.
U.S., Russia, Ukraine, China, and India dominate production.
Corn is also used for livestock feed and biofuels.
Soybeans are critical for animal protein and vegetable oils.
4. Global Trading Hubs for Soft Commodities
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) – grains and oilseeds.
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) – coffee, cocoa, cotton, sugar.
New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) – certain agricultural futures.
Euronext (Paris) – milling wheat.
Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) – India – cotton, sugar, and agricultural futures.
Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) – China – soybeans and related products.
These exchanges provide futures contracts that allow producers, traders, and investors to hedge risks and speculate on price movements.
5. Participants in Soft Commodity Trading
5.1 Producers
Farmers, cooperatives, and agricultural companies.
Seek to hedge against falling prices by selling futures contracts.
5.2 Consumers
Food companies, textile firms, and beverage manufacturers.
Hedge against rising input costs.
5.3 Traders
Middlemen who connect producers with consumers.
Examples: Cargill, Louis Dreyfus, Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), Bunge.
5.4 Speculators
Hedge funds, institutional investors, and retail traders.
Provide liquidity but increase volatility.
5.5 Governments
Regulate exports, impose subsidies, or control food inflation.
6. Trading Mechanisms
Soft commodities can be traded in several ways:
6.1 Spot Market
Immediate delivery at current prices.
Common for physical buyers like millers, roasters, or exporters.
6.2 Futures Contracts
Standardized contracts traded on exchanges.
Allow hedging and speculation. Example: CBOT Wheat Futures.
6.3 Options on Futures
Provide the right, not obligation, to buy/sell futures.
Used to manage risks.
6.4 Over-the-Counter (OTC) Contracts
Customized private agreements between parties.
6.5 ETFs & Indices
Investors can gain exposure without physical delivery.
Examples: Teucrium Wheat ETF, iPath Coffee ETN.
7. Factors Influencing Soft Commodity Prices
Weather & Climate
Droughts, floods, hurricanes, and frost can devastate harvests.
El Niño & La Niña cycles strongly impact global production.
Geopolitics
Wars (e.g., Russia-Ukraine conflict impacting wheat exports).
Trade policies, tariffs, and export bans.
Currency Movements
Commodities are priced in USD, so fluctuations in dollar value affect global prices.
Global Demand & Consumption Trends
Rising middle class in Asia → higher demand for coffee, chocolate, meat, and processed foods.
Health trends and biofuel demand shape consumption patterns.
Technology & Productivity
GMOs, irrigation, and fertilizers increase yields.
Mechanization reduces costs but can lead to oversupply.
Speculation & Financialization
Hedge funds and ETFs increase price swings.
8. Risks in Soft Commodity Trading
Price Volatility: Sudden weather events or political decisions can cause sharp movements.
Perishability: Storage costs and risks are higher than for hard commodities.
Market Manipulation: Concentrated players can distort prices.
Geopolitical Instability: African cocoa-producing nations often face coups or civil unrest.
Climate Change: Long-term risk as shifting patterns affect traditional growing regions.
9. Opportunities in Soft Commodity Trading
Portfolio Diversification: Provides a hedge against inflation.
High Liquidity: Futures markets are highly liquid, offering trading opportunities.
Emerging Market Demand: Rising populations in Asia and Africa drive demand growth.
Technological Advancements: AI, blockchain, and satellite monitoring improve forecasting and transparency.
Sustainable Investing: ESG-focused funds look at ethical sourcing of coffee, cocoa, and cotton.
10. Case Studies
10.1 Coffee Price Shock (2014)
Brazil’s drought severely reduced coffee output, leading to a 70% surge in Arabica prices. Traders who anticipated the weather-driven shortage made huge profits.
10.2 Cocoa Market (2020–2022)
Political instability in Ivory Coast and Ghana disrupted supply chains, while rising demand in Asia pushed prices higher.
10.3 Russia-Ukraine War (2022–2023)
Ukraine, a top wheat exporter, was blocked from shipping through Black Sea ports, causing a global food crisis. Futures spiked, and developing nations faced shortages.
Conclusion
Global soft commodity trading is a vital, dynamic, and complex part of the international economy. It touches everything from the morning coffee in your cup to the bread on your table and the cotton in your clothes. Unlike hard commodities, soft commodities are more unpredictable, influenced by weather, politics, and human consumption habits.
For investors and traders, soft commodities present both opportunities for profit and risks of volatility. For policymakers, they represent a tool of food security and geopolitical leverage. For producers, they are a lifeline tied to livelihoods and survival.
As climate change, technology, and shifting consumption patterns reshape the world, soft commodities will remain at the heart of global trade, shaping the balance between supply, demand, and sustainability.
AMAZON PULLBACK AHEAD|SHORT|
✅AMAZON has retested a key
Resistance level of 236.60$
And as the pair is already
Making a bearish pullback
A move down to retest the
Demand level below at 230.00$
Is likely on Monday
SHORT🔥
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
Risk vs Reward: How Positional Traders Manage Market SwingsChapter 1: The Nature of Positional Trading
1.1 Defining Positional Trading
Positional trading is a strategy where traders hold positions for extended periods, often ranging from several weeks to several months, with the goal of capturing larger price movements. Unlike intraday or swing traders, positional traders are less concerned with short-term noise. Instead, they rely on broader fundamental themes, technical trends, and macroeconomic cycles.
1.2 Characteristics of Positional Trading
Time Horizon: Longer than swing trading but shorter than long-term investing.
Analysis: Combination of technical indicators (trendlines, moving averages, volume profile) and fundamental analysis (earnings, global events, monetary policy).
Risk Tolerance: Moderate to high, since positions are exposed to overnight and weekend risks.
Capital Allocation: Positions are often larger than swing trades, requiring strict risk management.
1.3 Why Traders Choose Positional Trading
Ability to capture big moves in trending markets.
Lower stress compared to day trading (fewer trades, less screen time).
Flexibility to balance trading with other commitments.
Opportunity to benefit from structural themes such as interest rate cycles, technological disruptions, or geopolitical developments.
Chapter 2: The Core Principle – Risk vs Reward
2.1 Understanding Risk
In trading, risk is not just the possibility of losing money—it also includes the uncertainty of outcomes. For positional traders, risk manifests as:
Price Volatility: Sudden swings due to earnings reports, macroeconomic data, or geopolitical events.
Gap Risk: Overnight or weekend news causing sharp market gaps.
Trend Reversal: A strong uptrend suddenly turning bearish.
Opportunity Cost: Capital locked in a stagnant trade while better opportunities emerge elsewhere.
2.2 Understanding Reward
Reward refers to the potential gain a trader expects from a trade. For positional traders, rewards typically come from:
Riding long-term trends (e.g., a bullish rally in technology stocks).
Capturing multi-month breakouts in commodities or currencies.
Benefiting from sectoral rotations where capital shifts between industries.
2.3 The Risk-Reward Ratio
A foundational tool for positional traders is the risk-reward ratio (RRR), which compares potential profit to potential loss. For example:
If a trader risks ₹10,000 for a possible gain of ₹30,000, the RRR is 1:3.
A higher RRR ensures that even if several trades go wrong, a few winning trades can offset losses.
Most positional traders aim for a minimum of 1:2 or 1:3 risk-reward ratios to sustain profitability.
Chapter 3: Market Swings – The Double-Edged Sword
3.1 What Are Market Swings?
Market swings refer to sharp upward or downward price movements over short to medium periods. They are caused by factors like:
Earnings surprises
Central bank announcements
Political instability
Global commodity price shocks
Investor sentiment shifts
3.2 Friend or Foe?
For positional traders, market swings can be:
Friend: Accelerating profits when positioned correctly.
Foe: Triggering stop-losses and eroding capital when caught off-guard.
3.3 The Positional Trader’s Dilemma
Market swings often force traders into a psychological tug-of-war:
Should they hold through volatility in hopes of a larger trend?
Or should they exit early to preserve gains?
The right answer depends on risk appetite, conviction in analysis, and adherence to strategy.
Chapter 4: Tools of Risk Management
4.1 Stop-Loss Orders
The most basic and effective tool for limiting downside risk.
Hard Stop-Loss: A predefined price level where the position is exited.
Trailing Stop-Loss: Moves upward (or downward in shorts) as the trade becomes profitable, locking in gains while allowing room for continuation.
4.2 Position Sizing
Deciding how much capital to allocate per trade is crucial. A common rule is risking no more than 1-2% of total capital on a single trade. This prevents a single loss from wiping out the account.
4.3 Diversification
Holding positions across different asset classes or sectors reduces exposure to idiosyncratic risks. For example, combining technology stocks with commodity trades.
4.4 Hedging
Advanced positional traders may use options, futures, or inverse ETFs to hedge risks. For instance, buying protective puts while holding long equity positions.
4.5 Patience and Discipline
No tool is more important than discipline. Sticking to pre-defined plans and resisting the urge to overreact to market noise often separates successful traders from the rest.
Chapter 5: Strategies to Maximize Reward
5.1 Trend Following
Using moving averages, MACD, or ADX to identify strong directional trends.
Entering trades in alignment with the broader trend rather than against it.
5.2 Breakout Trading
Entering trades when an asset breaks through a key resistance or support level with high volume.
Positional traders often ride multi-month breakouts.
5.3 Fundamental Catalysts
Aligning trades with earnings cycles, government policies, or macroeconomic themes.
Example: Investing in renewable energy stocks during a policy push for green energy.
5.4 Sector Rotation
Shifting positions as capital flows between sectors.
Example: Moving from banking to IT during periods of rate cuts.
5.5 Pyramid Positioning
Adding to winning trades gradually as trends confirm themselves.
Ensures exposure grows only when the market supports the thesis.
Chapter 6: Psychology of Positional Trading
6.1 The Fear of Missing Out (FOMO)
Traders often chase after rallies late, increasing risk. Successful positional traders resist this urge and wait for setups aligned with their strategies.
6.2 Greed vs. Discipline
Holding too long for extra gains can turn profits into losses. Discipline ensures profits are booked systematically.
6.3 Handling Drawdowns
Market swings inevitably lead to losing streaks. Accepting drawdowns as part of the journey helps maintain mental balance.
6.4 Patience as a Weapon
Unlike day traders, positional traders must often endure long periods of stagnation before trends materialize. Patience is not passive—it is an active tool in their arsenal.
Chapter 7: Lessons for Traders and Investors
Risk is inevitable but manageable – Market swings cannot be eliminated, but tools like stop-losses and diversification reduce their impact.
Reward requires patience – Larger profits are earned by holding through volatility, not by constantly jumping in and out.
Discipline beats prediction – Following rules matters more than correctly forecasting every swing.
Adaptability is key – Global events can shift markets suddenly; traders must be flexible.
Psychology is half the battle – A calm, patient mindset sustains traders through market storms.
Conclusion
Positional trading is not about avoiding market swings—it is about managing them. Every swing presents both a threat and an opportunity. The difference lies in how traders handle them. Those who respect risk, apply disciplined strategies, and patiently wait for reward tend to emerge stronger, while those swayed by fear, greed, or impulsiveness often fall behind.
The essence of risk vs reward in positional trading is best captured as a dance: risk sets the rhythm, reward provides the melody, and discipline keeps the trader moving in sync. In a world where markets will always swing—sometimes violently—the art lies not in predicting every move but in managing exposure, aligning with trends, and staying calm in the face of uncertainty.
For anyone seeking to thrive as a positional trader, the golden rule remains: protect your downside, and the upside will take care of itself.
Amazon Wave Analysis – 11 September 2025- Amazon reversed from the resistance area
- Likely to fall to support level 225.00
Amazon recently reversed from the resistance area between the strong resistance level 240.00 (which stopped the sharp uptrend at the start of 2025) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from support level 240.00 stopped the previous extended ABC correction (2) from the start of April.
Given the strength of the resistance level 240.00, Amazon can be expected to fall to the next support level 225.00.
AMZN 2Hour Time frameAMZN 2-Hour Snapshot
Current Price: $238.24 USD
Change: +1.02% from the previous close
Intraday High: Not available
Intraday Low: Not available
🔎 Technical Indicators
Relative Strength Index (RSI): Neutral
Moving Averages:
5-period MA: Not available
10-period MA: Not available
20-period MA: Not available
50-period MA: Not available
📈 Market Sentiment
Pivot Points:
Resistance: Not available
Support: Not available
📅 Outlook
Bullish Scenario: A breakout above the current price could lead to further gains.
Bearish Scenario: A drop below the current price may test support levels.
Overall Bias: Neutral, with mixed signals from moving averages and momentum indicators.
