NVIDIA – Enormous Pressure After Reaching the Stretch LevelBetween July 31 and August 13, price kept nagging at the white U-MLH,
but there wasn’t enough strength to break through.
From there, price began to drift lower, pressing against the red U-MLH.
The close last Friday failed to break below the red U-MLH –
a clear sign of weakness!
If the green mini-trendline gives way and the white ¼-Line moves above price as well,
NVDA could be ripe for a short setup.
Let’s stalk the trade.
Trade ideas
NVDA: Undervalued AI Chip Leader Amid #YoungInvestorPortfolio?NVDA: Undervalued AI Chip Leader Amid #YoungInvestorPortfolio? $209 Target in Sight? 🚀
NVDA trades at $178.19 (+1.45%), undervalued with dominant AI GPU demand tying into Reddit young investor buzz on portfolios—analysts forecast average $209 target, 17% upside from robust data center growth, questioning if Blackwell rollout sparks breakout. 📈
**Fundamental Analysis**
EPS $3.51 ttm with revenue $165.218B and 71.55% YoY growth; P/E 52.56 reflects relative undervaluation in high-growth tech, DCF models indicate 15-20% intrinsic premium on AI expansions.
- **Positive:** Leading AI market share; strong cash flow generation.
- **Negative:** High capex demands; supply chain vulnerabilities.
**SWOT Analysis**
**Strengths:** Innovative GPU technology; data center dominance.
**Weaknesses:** Valuation sensitivity to growth slowdowns.
**Opportunities:** Expanding AI adoption; strategic partnerships.
**Threats:** Regulatory scrutiny; intensifying competition.
**Technical Analysis**
Chart in uptrend with strong volume support. Price: $178.19, VWAP $177.
Key indicators:
- RSI: 53 (neutral, upside potential).
- MACD: Positive signal line.
- Moving Averages: Above 50-day $170, 200-day $150 (bullish).
Support/Resistance: $170/$185. Patterns/Momentum: Ascending triangle targeting $200. 📈 Bullish.
**Scenarios and Risk Management**
- **Bullish:** AI demand surge to $200; DCA on pullbacks below $175 for averaged gains.
- **Bearish:** Chip shortages drop to $160.
- **Neutral:** Consolidates at $180 awaiting earnings.
Risk Tips: Stops at 5% below entry, limit to 2% portfolio, diversify tech exposure, DCA to handle volatility. ⚠️
**Conclusion/Outlook**
Bullish if AI trends accelerate. Watch Q3 earnings. Fits tech theme with #YoungInvestorPortfolio upside. Take? Comment!
Global Green Energy Trading Trends1. What we mean by “green energy trading”
“Green energy trading” spans several related but distinct markets:
Physical electricity markets where renewable generation competes in wholesale power markets.
Corporate offtake markets / Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) — long-term contracts linking buyers (often corporates) and renewable project sellers.
Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) / Guarantees of Origin (GOs) — unbundled instruments that represent the environmental attribute of 1 MWh of renewable generation.
Carbon markets — both compliance (cap-and-trade) and voluntary carbon markets (VCM) for offsets/removals.
Trade in low-carbon fuels and commodities — early and fast-growing markets for green hydrogen, ammonia, and derivatives intended for shipping, industry, and storage.
Cross-border electricity and capacity trades, enabled by interconnectors and regional power pools.
Each sub-market has its own liquidity dynamics, price drivers, participants and integrity issues. Treating them as a connected ecosystem — where PPAs, REC supply, carbon pricing and hydrogen exports all interact — is essential to understanding modern green energy trading.
2. Market scale & capital flows: momentum, but uneven progress
Investment into clean energy technologies remains large and growing worldwide. Multiple 2025 trackers show record or near-record levels of investment in renewables and associated infrastructure, even while investment patterns differ by region. BloombergNEF and other trackers documented strong capital flows into solar, wind and storage in recent reporting, while public reports by the IEA and REN21 confirm renewables’ rising share of global generation.
Still, important caveats exist: while installed capacity is growing fast, investment is increasingly focused on solar PV plus associated storage; grid and transmission investment lags; and some regions face investor retrenchment owing to policy or market risk. That re-risking shows up in slower PPA volumes or higher financing spreads in specific jurisdictions — the headline number (global investment) masks significant regional divergence.
3. Electricity trading and PPAs: corporates and utilities reshape demand
Corporate demand for long-term PPAs has been a major growth engine for green trading. Large companies continue to sign deals to meet procurement and net-zero goals, supporting project finance. In 2024 corporates signed tens of gigawatts of PPAs globally, and while volumes fluctuate quarter-to-quarter, 2024–2025 figures still show hundreds of terawatt-hours of contracted renewable energy across major markets. The PPA market has also diversified — shorter tenors, virtual PPAs (financial-only), sleeved structures, and hybrid PPA + storage deals are now routine. LevelTen and market reports highlight these shifts in price discovery and contract structure.
Market implications:
PPAs reduce merchant risk for developers, unlocking capital for new projects.
Financial PPAs (VPPA) allow companies in non-renewable grids to buy green attributes without physical delivery.
The combination of PPAs and REC purchases makes an increasingly liquid “corporate demand stack” that supports project economics, particularly in markets with weak or absent compliance instruments.
4. REC, GO and attribute markets: unbundling clean electrons
REC markets (called GOs in Europe, I-RECs in some markets) are maturing and expanding. Demand drivers include corporate procurement, renewable portfolio standards, and voluntary claims verification. The size of REC markets has ballooned where corporate offtake meets supportive policy; where policy is weak, VPPAs coupled with RECs are common.
Key dynamics:
Price dispersion — REC prices vary enormously across geographies depending on policy support and renewable penetration.
Unbundling vs. bundled — growing debate over whether simply buying RECs (without matching delivery) is sufficient for claims of “using renewable energy.” Many corporates now aim for time-matched and location-matched procurement to reduce “additionality” questions.
Market innovation — “time-tagged” or “hourly” certificates and blockchain pilots for traceability are becoming more common.
This market still faces integrity questions: standardization of vintage, additionality, double-counting avoidance, and the interplay with compliance regimes require ongoing governance.
5. Carbon markets: compliance growth and voluntary market reform
Carbon pricing and trading remain central to the economics of green energy. The World Bank’s 2025 carbon pricing report shows that carbon pricing covers an increasing share of emissions and is mobilizing fiscal resources — but coverage and price levels are highly uneven.
Two parallel trends matter for green trading:
Expansion and strengthening of compliance markets. More jurisdictions are adopting or tightening ETS (emissions trading systems) and carbon taxes, increasing demand for high-quality credits and driving corporate hedging strategies.
Reform of voluntary carbon markets (VCM). After volatility and integrity scandals, the VCM is undergoing standardization — improved registries, stricter methodologies, and a market tilt toward removals and high-integrity nature-based or engineered solutions. Ecosystem Marketplace’s 2025 SOVCM documents this transition.
Impacts:
Carbon prices (and the existence of credible compliance markets) materially affect the levelized cost calculus for low-carbon fuels (e.g., hydrogen) and for investments in add-on abatement technologies.
The VCM’s reform will shape corporate net-zero strategies — companies increasingly seek verifiable removals rather than cheap, low-integrity offsets.
6. Green hydrogen & traded molecules: the next frontier
Green hydrogen (electrolytic H₂ powered by renewables) and its derivatives (ammonia, e-methanol) are moving from pilots to nascent global trade. IRENA and other analysts highlight strong potential for cross-border hydrogen trade, with resource-rich, low-cost renewable regions set to become exporters and industrial consumers (EU, Japan, Korea) as importers. IRENA’s 2025 analysis maps techno-economic potential for hydrogen and derived commodities, showing realistic export/import corridors emerging by 2030–2050.
Why hydrogen trade matters for trading dynamics:
Hydrogen opens a new commodities market with different logistics (electrolyzers, compression, shipping of ammonia or LOHCs) and new price formation mechanisms tied to electricity costs, electrolyzer capex, and shipping.
Early trade will be bilateral and project-based (offtake contracts, tolling arrangements), transitioning to more liquid spot/forward markets as infrastructure and certification (low-carbon hydrogen certificates) develop.
Countries with cheap renewables + coastal infrastructure (Australia, parts of the Middle East, North Africa, Chile) are positioning to be exporters; heavy industrial demand centers (EU, Japan, Korea) are positioning to be importers.
Risks: cost trajectories for electrolyzers, the timeline of dedicated shipping/port infrastructure, and the need for an international certification framework to avoid greenwashing.
7. Cross-border electricity trading and grid issues
As renewable shares rise, regional interconnections become more valuable: geographic smoothing of supply, optimized dispatch across time zones, and better utilization of variable renewables. Projects to expand interconnectors (Europe, Africa-Europe links, emerging interregional links in Asia) are gaining priority, but progress is constrained by permitting, financing and political coordination.
Market design consequences:
Larger, interconnected markets can reduce curtailment and lower system costs, but they also require harmonized market rules, congestion management and mechanisms to allocate transmission costs.
High penetration of renewables increases the importance of ancillary service markets (frequency, inertia, fast reserves) and the monetization of storage services through trading platforms.
8. Technology & digitalization shaping trade
Trading infrastructure, data and software are changing how green energy trades are executed:
Hourly / granular attribute certificates. Time-matched RECs and hourly settlement help link generation and consumption more credibly.
Trading platforms and marketplaces. Platforms for PPAs, RECs, and carbon credits (including tokenized assets and marketplace aggregators) improve liquidity and price discovery.
Advanced forecasting and AI. Better wind/solar forecasts reduce short-term imbalance costs and improve the value of battery-coupled projects; AI also optimizes scheduling and trading strategies for aggregated distributed energy resources (DERs).
Blockchain / registries. Pilots for immutable registries aim to reduce double counting and improve provenance — particularly important in voluntary markets and hydrogen certification.
These innovations lower transaction costs and allow new market entrants (aggregators, VPP operators) to participate, broadening liquidity.
9. Policy, geopolitics and industrial policy: winners and losers
Green trading does not happen in a vacuum: geopolitics and industrial policy decisions shape the supply chains and competitive advantages.
Industrial policy matters. Countries that invest in electrolyzer manufacturing, battery supply chains, and port/infrastructure for hydrogen can capture export value chains. IRENA and other analysts point to likely exporters and importers through 2050.
Trade frictions and ‘green industrial policy’. Governments are using tax credits, domestic content rules, and subsidies (e.g., IRA in the U.S., similar programs in the EU and Asia) to lock in upstream manufacturing — this can distort trade flows and prompt retaliatory measures.
Energy security arguments. The energy transition coexists with strategic concerns — countries are wary of dependence on single suppliers for critical inputs (batteries, rare earths, hydrogen), and that shapes trade and contracting patterns.
Geopolitical disruptions (e.g., shifts in trade alliances, sanctions) can quickly change routing and price dynamics for green commodities.
10. Corporate behaviour & financial innovation
Corporates are major demand drivers through PPAs, on-site generation, and REC purchases; financial markets are responding with new instruments:
Green bonds and sustainability-linked financing have become standard to fund projects.
Hedging structures: corporate hedges, merchant storage arbitrage, and hybrid contracts (capacity + energy + attribute) are being packaged to manage revenue volatility.
Insurance & de-risking products are maturing to address construction and merchant risk for green projects — critical to mobilize institutional capital.
Investor due diligence has also matured: financial crates now scrutinize grid access, congestion risk, and REC/offset integrity before underwriting deals.
NVDA – Coiling Tight for a Big Move on Gamma Levels . Sep 29NVDA – Coiling Tight for a Big Move as Gamma Levels Draw the Battle Lines ⚡️
1-Hour Technical Outlook
NVIDIA has been grinding inside a narrowing descending channel after its recent selloff, with intraday price now stabilizing around $177–$178. A series of higher lows over the last two sessions hint at basing, but the short-term downtrend line from the $185 zone still caps upside. MACD histogram just turned positive and the Stoch RSI is pointing higher, signaling an early shift in momentum.
Immediate resistance sits at $180.2, followed by the heavy supply zone between $182.5 and $185. Key support levels are $175 (short-term pivot) and $172–$170 (structural demand).
Gamma Exposure (GEX) Confirmation
The options landscape reinforces these technical pivots:
* Major Call Wall / Max positive GEX is stacked at $185, with ~45% of call positioning concentrated there.
* Secondary call concentration: $182.5 (~39% call wall).
* Strong put support: $172.5 and $170, matching the lower trend channel and recent lows.
This setup suggests a gamma squeeze could ignite if NVDA breaks and holds above $180.2, where dealer hedging may accelerate upside toward $182.5–$185. Conversely, a loss of $175 would expose $172 and potentially $170 as downside magnets.
Trade Ideas & Option Plays for This Week
* Bullish Setup: Long above $180.2 with targets at $182.5 and $185. Ideal options: 1-week 180 or 182.5 calls, or 180/185 debit spreads to lower premium.
* Bearish Scenario: Breakdown below $175 opens room to $172 and $170. Traders can look at short-dated puts or vertical spreads such as 175/170.
* With IVR around 5.3 and IVx near 39, premiums are still modest—an advantage for debit spreads.
My Take:
NVDA is in a classic coiling pattern. Momentum oscillators are leaning bullish, but price must clear $180.2 to validate a trend reversal. The gamma map perfectly matches these breakout levels, giving confidence to the setup. Keep a tight stop below $175 if going long, and be ready to flip short if sellers reclaim control.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk before trading.
Bullish Momentum Builds as Nvidia Exits Consolidation Phase🚀 Nvidia Nears Breakout: Strong uptrend with volume profile support. Consolidation phase close to completion. Entry $172.95 | SL $167 | TP $255.65 → Attractive risk/reward setup for continuation higher. Let the bulls do their work — update to follow.
⚠️ Not financial advice.
NVDA: Potential Long Opportunity at Key Support LevelHello, fellow traders.
This analysis looks at a potential bullish setup on the 15-minute chart for NVIDIA (NVDA).
A key horizontal level has been identified around the $175.24 mark. As seen on the chart, this price has acted as a significant area of both support and resistance in recent trading sessions, indicating its importance to the market.
The price has recently pulled back to this level and appears to be holding, suggesting that it is currently acting as strong support. This bounce from a critical level could present a potential buying opportunity.
Here is a breakdown of the trade idea illustrated on the chart:
Entry: A long position is considered around the current price of $178.19.
Stop Loss: The stop loss is placed at approximately $172.22. This is set below the key support line and the recent swing lows, aiming to protect against a false breakout to the downside.
Take Profit: The target for this trade is set at $191.00, aiming for a significant move higher.
This setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. The trade thesis is valid as long as the price remains above the key support zone around $175.24. A firm break below this level would invalidate this bullish idea.
Disclaimer: This is a technical analysis idea for educational and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always conduct your own research and risk management before entering any trade.
NVDA Is Setup to Break New All-time Highs2025-09-26: NVDA Bullish Setup is Ready
1). Higher Lows Thursday ($173.13), Friday ($174.93). Will be perfect setup if next Monday close higher than $174.93.
2). Today vs Startup date Volume 23% Decrease 09-18: 191.76M vs 09-26 148.47M
3). Support Doji (Lower wig longer)
4). Close above all Moving Averages
$NVDA Reverse cup and handle on 15 & 45 m...After a brutal day today in the Market. I am seeing a reverse cup and handle form on the 15- and 45-minute frames. There is huge Gap that has yet to be filled in the Liquidity zone at 172 & 171.
It would need to touch or break below $171 in order to close the Gap.
Personally, I would wait for that Gap to close and load up on Call options in Call Debit Spread for those who can't afford call premiums. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.
I think if closes red tomorrow we could potentially see a Gap down next week Monday. Fib Retracement shows that it will duck down below. Potentially will see another red day tomorrow into next week.
AS ALWAYS THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, I AM A SELF-TAUGHT MARKET ANALYST THIS IS MY OPINION. GODBLESS YOU ALL, JESUS LOVES YOU.
NVDA buy order
Price sold off at 178.04 the broke out showing that price is bullish the next time price is above 178.04
We see bullish structure (higher highs higher lows)
We see the textbook price action
Indication
Correction
Continuation
Good RR (1:3)
We also have Nvidia wanting to invest $100B into Chatgpt (Bit of fundamentals for ya)
$NVDA Cracks were already showing.NASDAQ:NVDA Cracks were already showing.
Momentum stalled, buyers hesitated, and the tape began to lean heavy.
That’s the trap.
Structure tells a different story.
When lower highs started stacking, the short wasn’t a guess — it was the only logical play.
The edge comes from seeing what others ignore:
That hesitation is often the first domino.
That failed breakouts fuel the breakdowns.
By the time the flush came, it looked obvious.
But the decision was made long before — risk mapped, bias clear, execution ready.
Most chase the move.
The prepared step into it.
NVIDIA – Bumping Up Against Record HighsNVIDIA’s share price is experiencing an interesting run into the end of September as traders try and work out whether it can extend its run of gains through all time highs sitting just above the 184 level (184.55 Sept 22nd), a line in the sand that has capped the upside since the start of August (more on this in the technical update below).
With NVIDIA being the biggest company in the world by market capitalisation, currently sitting at a huge $4.34 trillion (No.2 Microsoft, $3.79 trillion), and it being the bellwether for AI performance, it’s not short of news flow to create periods of volatility.
Only on Monday, the company announced a $100 billion link up with Open AI to build new data centres and expand AI infrastructure together, which sent its stock price up 4% towards that 184 resistance, only for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in a speech on Tuesday to send it back lower again as investors banked profits, when he offered a more cautious outlook towards future Fed rate cuts into the end of the year.
Looking into the end of the week, the focus may be on US economic data again, with the release of the final US Q2 GDP reading at 1330 BST today, and perhaps more importantly, the PCE index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, due tomorrow at 1330 BST. Traders seem to be very sensitive to these inflation readings, given that they could determine whether the Fed is able to cut interest rates again before the end of 2025. Any deviation from expectations, to the up or downside could have an outsized impact on sentiment towards the NVIDIA stock price into the Friday close.
Technical Update: Watching Record Highs
Since reaching its 184.48 high on August 12th, NVIDIA has twice attempted to break and close above this resistance, on August 28th and September 22nd. The latest attempt did set a new intraday high of 184.55, but as the chart below shows, resistance held again by the close, triggering another sell-off from that level.
This price action confirms the 184.48/184.55 range as a potentially key resistance area. A successful close above it could lead to a further phase of price strength.
While not a guarantee of continued upside, a closing break above 184.48/184.55 could open the path to 192.14, a level equal to the 38.2% Fibonacci extension. If this level were to also give way on a closing basis, the next resistance may prove to be 196.91, which is the higher 61.8% extension.
Of course, with resistance at 184.48/184.55 still capping price strength, there's also the risk that support levels could give way, possibly suggesting further downside in price activity.
Initial support may now be marked by 175.11, the Bollinger mid-average, which is currently containing the latest pullback in price. While a close below here may not confirm extended price weakness, it might open the door to test lower supports at 168.41, which is the September 17th low, possibly even 164.07, a level equal to the September 5th extreme.
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NVDA NVIDIA Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought NVDA before the previous earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of NVDA NVIDIA Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 150usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-9-19,
for a premium of approximately $13.35.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
$NVDA: The River Changes Course - A Mean Reversion IdeaThe Technical Landscape
Our prior long setup on NASDAQ:NVDA was invalidated, providing us with the invaluable information that the bullish momentum has stalled. Following the Fed's announcement, the market's breath has changed. We now see a potential downtrend forming on the daily chart, with price creating lower highs and respecting a new descending trendline. The bears, who have been slumbering, appear to be waking up.
Instead of fighting this new current, we look to flow with it. The thesis is no longer about bullish continuation, but about a potential reversion to the mean. Price has a memory, and we are targeting a return to the scene of the previous major breakout, the demand zone around the $152 level. This is simply one piece of the puzzle, viewed without bias or ego.
The Philosophy - Listening When The Market Speaks
The trend is your friend, until it isn't. Our job is not to predict when the friendship will end, but to recognize when the dynamic has changed and act accordingly.
Our previous attempt at a long wasn't a failure; it was the market telling us, at a very small cost, that our hypothesis was incorrect for the current conditions. A limitless trader embraces this information with gratitude, for it protects us from the much greater cost of being stubborn. We are not "flipping" from bull to bear out of emotion. We are simply listening, adapting, and aligning with the price action that is presenting itself right now. Don't be a salmon, stubbornly fighting a new and powerful current. A limitless trader considers all outcomes, and right now, the path of least resistance appears to be pointing down.
An Illustrative Setup
Style: Short / Mean Reversion
Entry: An area of confluence around $175, near the descending trendline resistance.
Stop Loss: A defined stop above recent highs and trendline resistance at $178.75. If price breaks this level, our bearish thesis is invalidated.
Take Profit: Targeting the area of prior breakout, around $152.50.
Risk/Reward: Approximately 1 : 5.9
A safer, more conservative entry could be sought on a break and hold below the $168 support level, but always remember to manage your own risk based on your personal strategy.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. It is for educational and informational purposes only. Please conduct your own research and manage your risk accordingly.
bull flag and inverse head and shoulder breakout retestOn monday 22sept we broke the bullflag/ descending channel and also inverse head and shoulders on the 4hour chart with high volume.
Yesterday we went for a retest of the breakout as expected to 177.6
the 4hours candle closed as a bullish hammer candle.
Todays expectation is nvidia to retest or break its ATH at 184.
If we break 184 today we are lookig at the target of the inverse head and shoulder by end of week wich is 195.
if you look at the rsi ,the rsi is not overbought anymore and made a higher high so no signs of the bears.
Origins and Causes of the US–China Trade WarIntroduction
The trade war between the United States and China has become one of the most defining economic conflicts of the 21st century. It is not merely about tariffs or trade imbalances but represents a broader clash of economic models, political systems, and global ambitions. To truly understand why this trade war began, one must look beyond the headlines and consider the deep historical, economic, and geopolitical contexts that shaped U.S.–China relations over the past five decades.
The U.S.–China trade war formally erupted in 2018 under President Donald Trump’s administration, but its roots stretch back much further—to China’s economic reforms in the late 1970s, the U.S. decision to integrate China into the global trading system, and the growing perception in Washington that Beijing’s rise posed both economic and strategic challenges. The conflict was therefore the culmination of decades of tensions regarding trade deficits, intellectual property theft, industrial subsidies, and the role of state power in shaping markets.
This essay explores the origins and causes of the U.S.–China trade war in detail, examining historical background, economic dynamics, political factors, and the deeper strategic rivalry that underpins the confrontation.
1. Historical Context of U.S.–China Trade Relations
1.1 Early Isolation and Opening Up
For much of the 20th century, China was economically isolated. Following the Communist Revolution in 1949, China adopted a centrally planned economic system with little interaction with global markets. The U.S. had minimal trade with China, especially during the Cold War, when the two countries were ideological and geopolitical rivals.
Everything began to change under Deng Xiaoping’s economic reforms in 1978. China began opening up to foreign trade and investment, allowing special economic zones and market-driven policies. American companies saw enormous opportunities in China’s cheap labor and expanding consumer base.
1.2 Rapprochement and Normalization
The normalization of diplomatic relations in 1979 under President Jimmy Carter paved the way for commercial ties. Over the 1980s and 1990s, trade grew rapidly, and the U.S. increasingly viewed China as both a manufacturing hub and a market for exports.
1.3 WTO Accession and Its Consequences
A crucial turning point came in 2001, when China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO). The United States supported China’s accession, believing it would liberalize China’s economy, reduce state intervention, and bring Beijing closer to Western norms of free markets.
Instead, China used WTO membership to expand its export-led growth strategy. Its manufacturing capacity boomed, and U.S. companies moved large parts of their supply chains to China. While this benefited U.S. corporations and consumers with cheap goods, it also contributed to job losses in American manufacturing, fueling political resentment.
2. Economic Causes
2.1 U.S. Trade Deficit with China
One of the most visible triggers of the trade war was the massive trade imbalance. By the mid-2010s, the U.S. trade deficit with China exceeded $375 billion annually. Washington saw this as evidence of unfair practices, while Beijing argued it was the natural result of global value chains where final assembly took place in China.
2.2 Intellectual Property Theft and Technology Transfer
American firms long complained about forced technology transfer, intellectual property (IP) theft, and restrictions on market access. U.S. companies operating in China often had to form joint ventures with local firms, effectively handing over proprietary technology. Additionally, cyber espionage campaigns allegedly backed by the Chinese state targeted American corporations to steal industrial and military secrets.
2.3 Industrial Policy and State Subsidies
China’s economic model is built on significant state involvement in industry. Programs like “Made in China 2025”, launched in 2015, aimed to establish dominance in high-tech sectors such as semiconductors, robotics, and artificial intelligence. The U.S. saw these policies as unfair because Chinese firms received state subsidies, cheap loans, and protection from competition, giving them an edge over foreign rivals.
2.4 Currency Manipulation Accusations
For years, U.S. policymakers accused China of artificially undervaluing its currency (the yuan) to make exports cheaper and imports more expensive, thereby boosting its trade surplus. While this practice diminished after 2010, the perception remained influential in Washington’s decision-making.
3. Political and Strategic Causes
3.1 U.S. Domestic Politics and Populism
By the 2010s, public opinion in the U.S. had shifted. The loss of manufacturing jobs was often attributed to globalization and specifically to trade with China. Politicians began campaigning on promises to bring jobs back and stand up to Beijing. Donald Trump, elected in 2016, tapped into this sentiment with his “America First” agenda.
3.2 Rising Chinese Ambitions
China’s rapid economic rise also translated into greater global influence. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), military modernization, and technological leadership ambitions challenged U.S. dominance. Washington grew concerned that China was not just a trading partner but a strategic competitor seeking to reshape global power structures.
3.3 Clash of Economic Models
At the core of the conflict lies a fundamental clash of economic philosophies. The U.S. system emphasizes free markets, private enterprise, and limited government intervention, while China relies heavily on state capitalism and party-driven industrial policy. This structural difference fueled mistrust and accusations of unfair competition.
3.4 National Security Concerns
Trade and technology are increasingly intertwined with national security. The U.S. worried that dependence on Chinese supply chains—particularly in areas like telecommunications (Huawei, 5G), semiconductors, and rare earth minerals—posed security risks. Restrictions on Chinese technology firms were thus framed not only as trade issues but also as matters of national defense.
4. Escalation into a Trade War
4.1 Trump’s Tariff Strategy
In 2018, President Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese imports worth billions of dollars, citing Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act of 1974. China retaliated with its own tariffs on U.S. goods, particularly targeting politically sensitive industries like agriculture.
4.2 Negotiations and Breakdown
Although several rounds of negotiations were held, fundamental differences remained unresolved. The U.S. demanded structural reforms in China’s economy, while Beijing refused to abandon state-led policies it considered essential for development.
4.3 Global Economic Fallout
The trade war created uncertainty in global markets, disrupted supply chains, and led to slower economic growth worldwide. Multinational corporations had to rethink sourcing strategies, with some shifting production to countries like Vietnam and Mexico.
5. Deeper Structural Causes
5.1 Thucydides Trap and Power Transition Theory
Some scholars frame the trade war as part of the “Thucydides Trap”—the idea that when a rising power (China) threatens to displace an established power (the U.S.), conflict becomes likely. From this perspective, the trade war is just one manifestation of a broader rivalry for global supremacy.
5.2 Technological Dominance as the New Battleground
The real competition is not about traditional manufacturing but about who leads in emerging technologies—AI, 5G, quantum computing, and biotech. The U.S. fears losing its edge to China, which invests heavily in these areas with state backing.
5.3 Globalization Backlash
The trade war also reflects a broader backlash against globalization. In the U.S., many communities felt left behind by outsourcing and global supply chains. The trade conflict thus became a way to politically channel domestic frustrations.
6. Conclusion
The U.S.–China trade war did not arise overnight. It was the product of decades of economic integration combined with unresolved tensions over trade imbalances, intellectual property, state subsidies, and market access. At its core, the conflict represents not just a dispute over tariffs but a struggle between two economic systems and visions of world order.
The United States seeks to preserve its global dominance and protect its industries, while China aims to secure its rise as a technological and geopolitical power. The trade war is therefore less about soybeans and steel and more about the future of global leadership.
Whether the two countries can find a sustainable coexistence will shape not only their bilateral relationship but also the trajectory of the world economy in the decades ahead.
Nvidia and OpenAI Announce Partnership, NVDA Shares SurgeNvidia and OpenAI Announce Partnership, NVDA Shares Surge
Yesterday it was revealed that leading chipmaker Nvidia and leading artificial intelligence research laboratory OpenAI have announced a strategic partnership, under which Nvidia will invest $100 billion in OpenAI.
A network of data centres will also be created to train and operate the most advanced artificial intelligence models:
→ the network will be based on Nvidia’s next-generation platform, Vera Rubin;
→ the network’s total capacity is unprecedented, reaching 10 gigawatts;
→ the first phase of the project is expected to launch in the second half of 2026.
Nvidia (NVDA) shares reacted sharply to the news. During Monday’s trading, 22 September, the company’s stock price jumped by roughly 4%, climbing at yesterday’s high above $184.30 (marking a new all-time record, as shown on the chart). The chipmaker’s market capitalisation closed in on $4.5 trillion, cementing its status as the most valuable company in the world.
Technical Analysis of Nvidia (NVDA) Chart
Previously, in our 1 September analysis of NVDA, we:
→ plotted an ascending channel describing NVDA’s price movements following the bullish impulse at the end of June;
→ noted unsuccessful attempts by the bulls to break resistance at $183, which provided grounds to view the chart in the context of a Triple Top pattern (1-2-3);
→ assumed that the bears were exerting pressure on an overvalued stock and considered a correction scenario.
Since then, the Nvidia stock price corrected to $165, from where it resumed its upward trend (shown with a broken arrow).
The new data provide grounds to:
→ expand the channel (shown in blue) without changing its slope, adding the QH and QL lines to divide the wider channel into quarters;
→ plot the trajectory of the correction (in red).
Within this context, it is reasonable to assume that:
→ the stock price of NVDA found support at the QL line and moved up towards the midline;
→ the red lines form a Bullish Flag pattern;
→ yesterday’s rise broke out of this corrective pattern, with the bulls attempting to resume the upward trend, though the $183 level still provides resistance.
It is not excluded that the strong fundamental background, the development of AI technologies, and the supportive driver of the Fed’s rate cut may ultimately enable the bulls to overcome the $183 level, paving the way for NVDA’s share price to approach the psychological $200 mark.
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NVIDIA’s Decisive Battle at the $185 Resistance🔹 Short-Term Outlook (1–3 Weeks)
Current Situation:
NVIDIA (NVDA) is trading around $183.6, right below the critical $185 resistance—a level that has repeatedly capped the stock’s rallies.
Momentum & Pattern:
The price has reclaimed the 50-day moving average ($175.9) with a strong bullish candle, signaling renewed buying interest.
Bullish Scenario:
If NVDA breaks and holds above $185:
🎯 Target 1: $195
🎯 Target 2: $205
Bearish Scenario:
If the stock fails to break $185 and closes below $175:
❌ Short-Term Stop Loss: below $175
🎯 Downside Target: $165
🔹 Long-Term Outlook (2–6 Months)
Overall Trend:
The medium-term trend remains bullish, and a decisive breakout above $185 could ignite a new rally.
Bullish Scenario:
🎯 Medium-Term Target: $220
🎯 Long-Term Target: $250
Bearish Scenario:
If the stock loses the $160 support:
❌ Long-Term Stop Loss: below $160
🎯 Downside Target: $140
✅ Summary:
NVDA stands at a pivotal level. A breakout above $185 could open the door to $200 and higher, while rejection at this level risks a pullback toward $165.