$TSLA | Medium-Term Elliott Wave Outlook (2025–2026)🔮 NASDAQ:TSLA | Medium-Term Elliott Wave Outlook (2025–2026)
Price action shows a mature 5-wave structure approaching completion.
The next probable phase is a corrective ABC retracement before a new expansion leg begins.
🧭 Base Case (Most Probable ~60%)
End of current impulse around $527–$540
Correction to $380–$400 region (Wave A–B–C)
Mid-to-long-term expansion toward $615 → $705 → $869+ by late 2026
⚙️ Technical & Macro Confluence
RSI + volume divergence confirming wave exhaustion
Macro liquidity compression aligns with corrective phase
Institutional demand re-entry near $395–$400 zone
Fibonacci & structure symmetry consistent with this projection
📊 Bias: Short-term bearish → Medium-term accumulation → Long-term bullish.
📅 Cycle Horizon: 2025–2026
“Correction isn’t collapse — it’s the reload before expansion.”
#TSLA #ElliottWave #Macro #VolanXDSS #WaverVanir
Trade ideas
TSLA – Calm Before the Storm or Just Another Dip Buy?Tesla (TSLA) is trading around $315, bouncing off recent lows, but this isn’t just a clean technical setup. With Elon Musk’s political drama escalating (hello, “America Party”) and ongoing tension with Trump, TSLA is becoming a battleground stock with serious volatility.
As swing traders, that’s exactly where we thrive.
📍 Entry Plan
✅ Entry #1 – $315
✅ Entry #2 – $300
• Previous breakout zone — ideal for dip buyers
✅ Entry #3 – $265
• Strong macro support; only activated if market correction deepens.
🎯 Profit Targets
• TP1: $335
• TP2: $355
• TP3: 400+ – if sentiment + volume align with narrative momentum (think: Robotaxi or AI catalyst)
If $265 gets hit, I’m not panicking, I’m preparing for high-reward setups.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I’m just sharing my plan and technical zones. Always do your own research and manage your risk.
📌 Follow for more ideas based on price, narrative, and timing. Trade smart — not loud. 🧭📈
Tesla reports Wednesday; analysts expect EPS of $0.55Tesla reports third-quarter earnings Wednesday after the close, with analysts expecting EPS of $0.55, down from $0.72 a year earlier, on revenue of $26.2B — up 4%. There’s room for an upside surprise after record Q3 deliveries of 497,099 vehicles, boosted by the now-expired $7,500 U.S. EV tax credit, which also trimmed inventories. Analysts will focus on Elon Musk’s plans for robotaxi scaling, autonomy progress, and upcoming models through 2026, along with updates on new “Standard” Model 3 and Y trims. Wall Street projects about 450,000 deliveries in Q4.
Tesla is holding firm near $418, with its RSI turning higher to signal improving momentum. A positive EMA crossover — along with clear angle and separation between the averages — would confirm a strengthening bullish trend.
Take a bullish position on Tesla as price action shows strong up
Current Price: $413.49
Direction: LONG
Targets:
- T1 = $437.00
- T2 = $459.00
Stop Levels:
- S1 = $405.00
- S2 = $396.00
**Wisdom of Professional Traders:**
This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts who closely monitor Tesla’s performance and future outlook. Collective wisdom heavily emphasizes Tesla’s innovative edge in the electric vehicle (EV) industry and its expanding lead into key growth sectors such as autonomous driving and energy storage. Traders see Tesla not only as a market leader but as a company with significant upside driven by its ability to announce game-changing technological advancements and strategic global expansions. The consensus suggests that Tesla’s ongoing operational improvements and rising demand have positioned it as a solid buy.
**Key Insights:**
Tesla’s robust fundamentals continue to drive optimism among professional traders. The company has successfully increased production capacity in 2025. Recent updates regarding its next-generation vehicle platform, dubbed "Project Titan", have reinforced confidence in long-term growth potential. The expanded Gigafactory projects in Mexico and Indonesia are helping to reduce unit costs, which traders believe will scale profitability and sustain earnings growth over several quarters. Analysts are also eyeing Tesla’s significant advancements in artificial intelligence applications, particularly its Full-Self Driving (FSD) suite, which might unlock tremendous recurring revenue streams like subscriptions.
Additionally, Tesla’s energy storage division is performing better than anticipated in 2025, directly contributing to revenue diversification. Traders argue that Tesla’s valuation is underpinned by its ability to integrate vertically across EV manufacturing, charging networks, and energy grids, making it more resilient to potential sector-wide downturns than its peers such as Rivian or Ford. Finally, technical indicators suggest bullish momentum reinforced by positive institutional inflows.
**Recent Performance:**
Over the last month, Tesla’s stock price has seen a notable rally. The stock has climbed approximately 10% since early September 2025, fueled by improving investor confidence from both retail and institutional participants. On the earnings front, Tesla’s Q3 2025 report released last week showed a 32% year-over-year increase in operating margins, surpassing consensus estimates. Key growth figures included over 20% jump in total vehicle deliveries and strong revenues from energy products. Such impressive performance confirms Tesla’s ability to scale production efficiently even while grappling with broader macroeconomic challenges.
**Expert Analysis:**
From a technical analysis perspective, Tesla appears poised for further upside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 62, just on the cusp of being overbought, which suggests sustained bullish sentiment without yet showing overextension. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals strong upward momentum, while Tesla is trading comfortably above its 50-day moving average of $398.25 and 200-day moving average of $376.00. Market observers are targeting a breakout above $420 as a critical resistance point, after which the stock could potentially push towards the $450 level.
Experts are also discussing Tesla’s valuation, which trades at a forward P/E multiple of 41—a premium to other automakers but justified by its superior growth trajectory. Analysts believe this premium valuation reflects Tesla’s several-layered optionality, including its disruptive position in both industry-leading technology and renewable energy solutions.
**News Impact:**
Recent headlines further bolster positive sentiment around Tesla. In early October 2025, Tesla announced final upgrades to its battery technology, revealing a solid-state prototype that could significantly extend range and durability compared to lithium-ion alternatives. Moreover, CEO Elon Musk’s comments during the last conference call pointed toward laser-focused execution on its next-gen product lineup and growth in emerging markets like Latin America. Further, discussions around government subsidies for EV adoption in Europe and tax incentives in the U.S. continue to create a more favorable electoral outlook for Tesla as it remains a pivotal player in the global EV race.
**Trading Recommendation:**
Based on Tesla's strong fundamental performance, bullish technical indicators, and its ability to expand capably in multiple verticals, taking a LONG position is recommended. The stock’s momentum suggests potential growth over the coming weeks, especially with Q3 earnings validation and positive news flow supporting investor sentiment. Traders should look for a breakout above $420 with a short-term upside target of $437 followed by $459 in the next leg of its rally. Implementing stops at $405 and $396 ensures risk management against market volatility, while remaining positioned for sizable gains.
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TSLA Breakdown or Bear Trap? Oct. 13TSLA Breakdown or Bear Trap? Watch This Zone Before the Next Big Move
Tesla just had one of its hardest sessions in weeks — dropping over 5% on Friday and closing near $408, right on the edge of a major technical breakdown.
But here’s the thing: while the chart looks heavy, there are signs that sellers might be losing steam. Let’s unpack what’s happening from both the 15-minute price action and the 1-hour options (GEX) landscape so you know what to expect when the market opens Monday.
15-Minute Intraday Technical View
Friday’s price action was pure capitulation. After losing $430, Tesla slid straight down the channel and found temporary footing near $405–$408.
The 15-minute chart shows a clean descending structure with a trendline connecting lower highs — every bounce so far has been rejected.
But now, for the first time in two days, the MACD histogram is turning light blue, and Stoch RSI is curling up from deep oversold territory near 20. That means momentum is trying to flip, even if price hasn’t confirmed it yet.
The immediate level to watch at Monday’s open is $410–$415. If Tesla reclaims that area with strength, it could start an intraday reversal move toward $420–$425, where the breakdown started.
However, if it rejects there and breaks below $405, the next support isn’t until $395–$390, and that’s where the next flush could hit fast — especially if VIX spikes above 22 again.
The key is to watch volume and confirmation. A weak bounce without strong participation likely fails, but a reclaim above $415 with rising volume could catch shorts off guard and trigger a fast squeeze.
1-Hour GEX Analysis — Options Sentiment
The 1-hour GEX chart paints the bigger picture: this entire drop was dealer-driven.
The HVL (Highest Volatility Line) sits near $417–$420, which means that’s the line separating calm from chaos. Staying below it keeps TSLA in negative gamma territory — where every move feeds volatility instead of containing it.
Below the current price, there’s a massive Put Wall sitting around $395–$390, marking the highest negative GEX zone. That’s the “danger zone” where market makers start shorting more to hedge, which can accelerate a drop.
Above that, there’s heavy Call Resistance stacked around $445–$450, so even if Tesla bounces, it’ll hit resistance hard once it gets near $440+.
IVR sits around 29.4 with IVX at 70, showing that implied volatility is still very high. That means options are expensive — traders are paying up for protection, not confidence.
Right now, GEX positioning suggests Tesla’s price is trapped between $405 and $425, waiting for direction. If price holds and climbs above $420, gamma flips neutral and a short-term rally could unfold fast.
My Thoughts and Trade Ideas
Tesla is stuck in a volatility choke zone — but it’s not dead.
The 15-minute chart shows potential momentum reversal, while the 1-hour GEX confirms that option flows are balanced on a knife’s edge. Bulls need to push above $420 to break the cycle of dealer hedging and start a relief wave toward $430–$440.
If you’re scalping, watch for:
* Long setup above $415–$418 with volume confirmation — target $425–$430.
* Short setup if it fails $410 or breaks $405 — target $395, then $390.
For option traders, the 420C or 425C strike could work for a short-dated bounce play if volatility cools. But if fear continues, the 400P or 390P offers a safer directional hedge.
The real pivot for Tesla isn’t price — it’s sentiment. Once VIX calms below 20 and liquidity returns, Tesla usually leads the rebound. Until then, this remains a day trader’s battlefield.
Final Take
Tesla is coiled inside a descending channel but showing early divergence. Monday will determine if this is just another leg down or the first real reversal from oversold territory.
Above $420 = short-covering bounce.
Below $405 = more pain ahead.
Volatility will decide who wins.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always trade your own plan and manage your risk carefully.
TeslaFriday was a rough day for anyone that was long...pretty much anything lol. There were a few tickers like MP that posted a green day, but they were far and few between. Tesla was no exception to this and closed down over $22. This should not have come as a surprise for anyone though. Maybe the magnitude in which the market turned downwards, but not that it did. I have been saying for 2-3 weeks that the top was near. that being said, although price tanked the way that it did, we technically do not have the confirmation needed for a top. Do I think it likely we have a top in place? Yes, I do. However, one cannot definitively say it is in for a fact. The absolute confirmation doesn't come until we can breach $368.33 unfortunately.
We will get clues and data pointing to a top on the way down though. The first thing I want to point out is that we have officially breached the last TWO wave 4's of a lesser degree. This in itself is a very good sign the top is in. Also, MACD made a new local low. When you look at the yellow fibs tracking the possible abc down, the 1.382 is just below that minor A wave top. This means over half of the standard target area for minute ((c)) of minor A is below the minor A high.
Another thing I want to point out is that in the overnights, Robinhood is showing Tesla trading @ $423 currently, and has raised as high as $425. This could be pointing to a couple things. The first is that the minute ((c)) wave is just subdividing into a smaller 3-wave pattern that will ultimately end within the target box to conclude minor A wave. The other is that Friday's low was the minute ((a)) wave low with ((b)) currently underway. Then lastly, it could be pointing to my ALT turquoise count that suggests another high to the low $500's is needed.
I do not like the turquoise count, but I cannot rule it out with 100% certainty yet, so it stays for now. The count that I favor is the white count, and ((c)) being carved out in three waves. Hopefully we get some clarifying data tomorrow, but if not, we should get some this week. For now, we continue observing. Should you not be able to help yourself and want to enter into a trade...use TIGHT stops. I am not a gambling man, so I will remain on the sidelines. Ultimately, I believe it is only a matter of time until we see price back into the $100's...
TSLA Week Ahead - ShortTSLA looks like a classic post-rally consolidation after that sharp pop from late September lows around $340. The candlesticks show solid volume on the upside thrusts (those red-to-green hammers mid-September), but we're seeing some profit-taking wicks lately, with the price hugging that rising EMA channel (orange line) around $410 support. That unfilled gap down at $396-$402 (from early October open?) is screaming "magnet" if we get any broader market weakness—gaps like that on high-beta names like TSLA often fill on light-volume Fridays, especially with no major catalysts this week.
The gap is likely to close 70% of the times in 30 day span.
What to Expect by EOD Friday (Oct 17)
No earnings till Oct 22, so this week's all about macro vibes (Fed chatter, CPI print Wed) and TSLA-specific noise like Robotaxi buzz or delivery whispers. Q3 deliveries hit 462k on Oct 2 (beat estimates), so that's baked in—focus shifts to affordable model teases.
Base Case (60% odds): Sideways grind to $415-425. We're in that expected move band of ±6% (~$388-438 from here). Light volume mid-week could keep us coiling in the channel; that gap stays open unless we dump on risk-off. Analysts are meh short-term (avg target $361, but that's 1Y noise), but one shop just hiked to $483. I'd fade any spike above $420 for a quick scalp—RSI's overbought on 1H.
Bull Case (25% odds): Push to $430+. X crowd's frothing—folks calling ATH break by 10/17 on "unstoppable momentum" and 5Y consolidation snap to $500. If CPI undershoots and Elon tweets FSD gold, we tag resistance. One forecast pegs exactly $425 EOW.
Bear Case (15% odds): Gap fill to $400. Volatility spikes if yields rip higher or China EV FUD hits (ZEV credit chatter ending soon). That purple MACD histogram's flattening—watch for divergence.
TESLA: Long Signal Explained
TESLA
- Classic bullish formation
- Our team expects pullback
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Long TESLA
Entry - 413.27
Sl - 406.92
Tp - 427.53
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Tesla (TSLA) - Weekly Battle Before The BreakoutTicker : NASDAQ:TSLA
Timeframe : Weekly
Bias : Neutral (Awaiting breakout confirmation)
Range : $410 - $470
🧠 MARKET CONTEXT
Tesla is stuck in a wide weekly range as macro uncertainty and earnings expectations collide.
Buyers defend the $410 zone while Sellers keep rejecting $470 - a classic coiling phase before expansion.
🔎 TECHNICAL OVERVIEW
* Structure: Choppy / Distribution phase ( failed breakouts, heavy wicks, indecision )
* Resistance Zone: $465-$475 ( needs clean close above for breakout confirmation )
* Support Zone: $410-$425 ( critical area maintaining bullish structure )
* Major Support Below: $320-$360 ( long term value area where buyers historically stepped in )
📈 SCENARIOS
🟢 Bullish Case:
* Weekly close above $470 with strong volume = breakout signal.
* Targets : $500+ zone, potential retest of 2024 highs.
🔴 Bearish Case:
* Weekly close below $410 = structure break.
* Targets : $360 - $320 zone.
⚪ Neutral / Range Play:
* Between $410 - $470, range strategies work best (fade extremes, tight risk).
🌍 MACRO CONTEXT
* The FED's higher-for-longer stance keeps pressure on growth stocks.
* Q3 deliveries were strong, supporting long term sentiment.
* Competition & margin compression (China & Europe) remain risk factors.
* Tech sector volatility + geopolitical headlines amplify TSLA's swings.
📊 WEEKLY OUTLOOK SUMMARY
* Short Term (2-4 weeks) : range bound between $410-$470 - watch for volume spikes / breakout confirmation.
* Medium Term (1-3 months) : direction depends on Fed & earnings - macro + delivery data key catalysts.
* Long Term (Q1 2026+) : bullish bias intact if fundamentals hold - expect volatility during macro tightening.
💬 FINAL TAKE
Tesla is coiling between $410 and $470. Whichever side breaks first will likely define Q4's direction. Watch weekly closes and volume confirmation - "The Big Move Is Loading"
TSLA Short1. May/June Inside Bar: Broke to the upside on September with no re-test of break.
a. Higher timeframes take longer for this to re-test.
b. I have found that 18 days is an average re-test, but this is not 100%.
2. Daily chart shows pullback, but its extremely important to understand that the weekly and monthly show bullish momentum.
3. I have started a TSLQ short position adding slowly, with TSLA shares targeting ATH's.
4. The target is for TSLA to move back into the 5% buffer, where I will start looking for a long position. The inside bar is usually re-tested. If bullish momentum is still there, which the weekly and monthly still show, then the 5% buffer and 25% quadrant are entry zones. However, if something changes, then 50% quadrant should be the target.
Happy trading!
TSLA: ShortNASDAQ:TSLA ⚡ Coiling up in a symmetrical wedge right under equilibrium — a textbook indecision zone before expansion.
Still trading below premium structure → bias remains bearish unless we see a clean breakout and hold above 434.5.
Volume contracting, RSI midline hovering → pressure building for next leg.
🎯 Breakdown targets: 427 → 422 → 416
🚀 Bull case invalidation: Close above 434.5, targeting 444–450
🧠 VolanX DSS Bias: Bearish continuation, awaiting volatility trigger
#TSLA #VolanX #SmartMoney #LiquidityZones #PriceAction #AITrading #WaverVanir
Not Investment Advice
TSLA Slips Despite Record Q3 Deliveries AI Growth Play?TSLA – Financial Performance & SWOT Analysis
TSLA Slips Despite Record Q3 Deliveries AI Growth Play?
(1/9)
Good Morning, folks! TSLA is pulling back 📉, at $ 436.33 up 7.85% YTD per October 10, 2025. AI integration shakes up this EV play , let’s dive in! 📊🔥 Tag a friend who needs this investing hack!
(2/9) – PRICE PERFORMANCE
• Last day: $ 436.33, down slightly pre-market 📉
• YTD 2025: up 7.85%, lagging S&P 500 🔄
• Q3 2025: record deliveries, but stock dips 🚀
This EV stock’s volatility, AI hype pops! 💥
(3/9) – MARKET POSITION
• Market Cap: $ 1.45T, industry giant 🏆
• Avg Volume: 88.96M shares, high liquidity 💧
• Trend: high P/E amid growth expectations 👑
This asset’s dominance, holding tight! 🔒
(4/9) – KEY DEVELOPMENTS
• Q3 deliveries: record highs, beat estimates 💰
• Stock dip: despite beats, tax credits end 🏭
• AI focus: Robotaxi event Oct 22, autonomy push 📈
This EV move, AI-driven surge! ⚡
(5/9) – RISKS IN FOCUS
• High volatility: beta 2.09 swings ⚠️
• Subsidies end: EV tax credit phaseout 🆚
• Market liquidations: $700M crypto-wide impact 📉
This ticker’s exposure, watch these twists! ⚠️🔄
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS
• EV leadership (deliveries.): market share 🌟
• AI integration (FSD/Robotaxi.): growth edge 🤖
• Institutional demand (ETFs.): sentiment boost 👥
This asset’s edge, built tough! 💪
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES
• Weaknesses: high valuation, subsidy reliance ⚖️
• Opportunities: AI boom, EV rebound 🌍
Can this ticker beat the odds? 🎲 Reply with your take!
(8/9) – POLL TIME!
TSLA’s $ 436.33 value, your vibe?
• Bullish: $500+ soon, AI beats 📈🚀
• Neutral: Steady, risks balanced ⚖️🛡️
• Bearish: $400 looms, subsidy hits 📉⚠️
Chime in below! 💬 Tag a friend for this poll!
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY
TSLA’s $ 436.33 position shows resilience 💪, AI fuels it ⚡. Risks bite 🦈, yet dips are DCA gold 💎. We grab ‘em low, climb like pros! Gem or bust? not advice, just our spin!
#TSLA #Investing #Markets #Trading #Finance #ETF #Commodities #DCA #Trends
TSLA is mixed as of October 10, 2025, at $ 436.33, up 7.85% YTD per TradingView. Q3 deliveries shape its path in the EV space. Here’s a factual financial and strategic breakdown.
**Financial Performance**
Price Movement: YTD at $ 436.33, up 7.85%. Broader period shows pullback from highs. Q3 adds upside, with record deliveries.
Volume & Market Cap: Avg volume 88.96M shares. Market cap at $ 1.45T.
Key Metric: Trailing P/E 256.20, forward P/E 172.41.
**SWOT Analysis**
Strengths:
- Record Q3 deliveries.
- AI and autonomy integration.
- Institutional interest.
Weaknesses:
- High valuation multiples.
- Subsidy phaseout impact.
- Recent stock pullback.
Opportunities:
- AI and Robotaxi growth.
- EV market rebound.
- New model launches.
Threats:
- Intense competition.
- Market corrections.
- Regulatory changes.
**TSLA vs. SPY: Key Comparisons**
| Aspect | TSLA | SPY |
|--------|------|-----|
| Purpose & Scope | EV and AI focus | Broad market index tracking |
| Dynamics | Beta 2.09 volatility vs. lower 1.00 | Steady benchmark |
| Market Position | Up 7.85% YTD, high P/E vs. S&P gains | Stable exposure |
**Investor Considerations: DCA**
Dollar Cost Averaging: TSLA’s volatility suits dip-buying. At $ 436.33, $10,000 buys ~23 shares; a 10% dip to $ 393 nets ~25 shares. Time in the market, not timing it, wins.
**Outlook & Risks**
TSLA’s $ 436.33 position shows AI edge, with delivery beats. Subsidy ends loom, yet dip grabs turn volatility into gains. AI or EV growth could sway it, but time’s our edge. Gem or fade? Depends on autonomy adoption.
Why Most Prop Traders Fail (Even the Skilled Ones)When speaking with Prop Traders, we have found the issue was not about
bad setups; it’s emotions under pressure that is the problem
Fear after a loss. Greed after a win.
That’s when discipline slips and accounts die.
Here’s what helps:
Before each session, ask ?
“Would I take this trade if I weren’t trying to prove something?”
This one question has saved more accounts than any indicator
I’ve been helping traders stay calm when it matters most.
If you’ve ever blown up knowing exactly what you should’ve done, DM me and I’ll show you what’s been working.
Breakout Incoming!Tesla remains within a well-defined channel range, consolidating near lower channel support on declining volume, which reflects healthy consolidation after prior momentum. The recent action has formed a symmetrical triangle, with price compressing between rising support and descending resistance — a classic setup for a volatility squeeze and potential breakout.
Despite short-term weakness, TSLA has consistently held above prior support levels within the channel. With bullish sentiment building ahead of earnings, it’s unlikely the stock breaks below existing support (~$416–$420).
The key resistance to watch is at $455, aligning with the upper boundary of the current structure. A decisive breakout above this level could trigger a move toward $470, which coincides with the previous high and marks a potential continuation of the bullish trend.
Notably, the price breakout between September 11 and September 22 offers a useful reference; that move demonstrated TSLA’s ability to accelerate rapidly once volume returns and resistance levels are cleared - this stock is a freight train once it gets moving.
Given the technical compression, low-volume consolidation, and improving sentiment, I’d expect a breakout as early as tomorrow or early next week, especially as we lead into earnings.
Key Levels:
• Support: $416–$420
• Resistance: $455 (breakout trigger)
• Target: $470+ (prior high / upper channel objective)
• Future Target: Liftoff?
A Blow Off Top/Double Top on TESLA?Tesla's move since 9/11/25 has characteristics of a Blow Off Top
Parabolic price rise
Extremely high trading volume
Widespread optimism or “fear of missing out”
Sudden reversal and heavy selling
The high appears to match prior highs from last year, making this a double top.
Near the top, there was a period of distribution, as shareholders exited positions, creating new bagholders.






















