DE40.F trade ideas
Germany 40 Index – Ukraine’s Future and All-Time Highs in FocusThe Germany 40 index registered its last record high at 23639 on July 9th and since that date has struggled to regain the upside momentum that took it there, with general sentiment towards European indices taking a dip after the EU agreed to a trade deal imposing 15% tariffs on exports to the US, the ECB decided to pause cutting interest rates to assess incoming economic growth and inflation data, and Q2 earnings from European corporates disappointed when measured against analyst expectations.
However, things have started to improve in August, with the Germany 40 experiencing a rally of 5% from its August 1st lows of 23378 to last Friday’s highs at 24544. So, what’s changed? , well general risk sentiment has been boosted by increased trader hopes of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September, and perhaps more importantly for European indices, and the Germany 40 in particular, anticipation that last Friday’s (August 15th) Alaskan summit between President Trump and Russian President Putin could be the first tentative step to agreeing an extended ceasefire in Ukraine, potentially even a peace agreement.
Early trading in European indices this morning has reflected guarded optimism that progress is being made regarding Ukraine, with the Germany 40 index currently up 0.2% at 24,418 (0630 BST).
Whether this move can extend further, may now depend on the outcome of a meeting scheduled for later today in Washington between President Trump, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy and key European leaders, including German Chancellor Merz, UK PM Starmer and French President Macron.
According to Bloomberg, talks are expected to focus on US security guarantees, territorial issues and continued support for Ukraine in its defence against Russian aggression.
Technical Update: Focus on All-Time Highs
Since early June, the Germany 40 index has failed to establish a sustainable trend, be it to the up or downside. As the chart below shows, this has resulted in sideways price activity between resistance marked by 24639, the July 9th all-time high and support offered by the uptrend connecting the 23013 June 19th and 23378 August 1st lows. This trendline currently stands at 23494.
This type of sideways activity can extend over a prolonged period, with only a closing break above resistance or below the support levels suggesting a more prolonged phase of price movement, in the direction of the break.
However, with the on-going discussions regarding Ukraine increasing the potential for Germany 40 index volatility, traders may be asking if a breakout from the current range is possibly about to materialise, and if so, where the next support or resistance levels may then stand.
Possible Resistance Levels:
Having already found selling interest at 24639 and it being the current all-time price high, there is a possibility that if strength re-emerges, sellers may once again be found at this level. As such, 24639 could be a resistance focus for traders in the near term.
While not a guarantee of price strength, daily closes above 24639, could reinforce the upside potential for the Germany 40 index. If confirmed breaks materialise, prices may continue their advance to the next possible resistance at 25138, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci extension.
Potential for a further phase of price strength could in turn be suggested by closing breaks above this 25138 level, which may bring the higher resistance at 25436 (61.8% extension) into play.
Potential Support Levels:
To the downside, during periods of price strength, the Bollinger mid-average can be a potential support. For the Germany 40 index, this currently stands at 24134.
Should prices manage closing breaks below 24134, it may prompt further attempts to extend any weakness to test the 23494 trendline support, which may prove to be a more important focus for traders.
With this 23494 level representing the lower extremes of the current sideways range, it might be closes below here that prompt further weakness towards 23378, the August 1st low, possibly even 23013, a support level equal to the June 19th extreme.
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GER40 Holding Despite Macro — Here's the Level I'm WatchingGER40 holding strong despite weak local data. Most names here earn globally — Siemens, SAP, the heavy hitters. With €1T stimulus and rate cuts likely, bulls still have fuel.
I’m watching 24,260.5 — if we flip bullish into that early week, I’m in.
Invalidation at 23,949.4 — clean stop.
If that breaks, mid-range likely gets hunted.
Risk-on, but solid RR if it clicks. Simple plan.
Technical Analysis for GER40 (DAX) Closing Price: 23,372.80 (15th Aug 2025, 11:50 PM UTC+4)
Analysis Methods: Japanese Candlesticks, Harmonic Patterns (ABCD, M/W), Elliott Wave, Wyckoff, Gann Theory (Time/Square of 9/Angles), Ichimoku, RSI, Bollinger Bands, VWAP, Moving Averages (MA/EMA/SMA/WMA).
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1. Long-Term Trend (Weekly/Monthly)
Elliott Wave:
GER40 is likely in Wave 3 of a broader bull cycle (Wave 1 peak: 22,800, Wave 2 dip to 21,500).
Wave 3 Target: 24,000–24,500 (1.618 extension of Wave 1).
Gann Price Forecasting:
Square of 9: √23,372.80 ≈ 152.90 →
Resistance: 153² = 23,409 (immediate), 154² = 23,716 (swing target).
Support: 152² = 23,104 (daily pivot), 151² = 22,801 (Wyckoff accumulation zone).
Ichimoku (Monthly):
Tenkan/Kijun: Bullish (Tenkan: 22,900 > Kijun: 22,400).
Cloud: Price above thick Senkou Span (22,000–22,500) – structural bullishness.
Moving Averages:
Weekly SMA(100): 22,200 (major support).
Swing Outlook: Bullish. Wave 3 rally targets 24,000–24,500.
2. Medium-Term Swing (4H/Daily)
Harmonic Patterns:
Bearish ABCD on Daily:
A: 23,800 → B: 23,100 → C: 23,550 → D: 23,380–23,420 (1.272 BC extension).
Bullish Crab (W Pattern) forming near 23,100 (0.886 XA retracement).
Wyckoff Phase:
Testing at 23,400:
Upthrust rejection at 23,450 (15th Aug) on low volume.
Spring potential near 23,100 (accumulation signal).
Gann Theory:
Time Window: Aug 18–20 (Square of 9 date cluster) for breakout/reversal.
Price-Time Squaring: 23,372 aligns with Aug 15 – consolidation expected.
Gann Angle: 1x1 angle at 23,300 – close below accelerates selling.
Indicators:
RSI(14) + Bollinger Bands (Daily):
RSI: 64 (neutral, no divergence).
Price testing upper BB(20,2) at 23,450 – expansion hints at volatility.
VWAP (Weekly): 23,250 (swing support).
Swing Trade Setup:
Short near 23,400 (ABCD target) → Target 23,100. Stop-loss: 23,500.
Long near 23,100 (Crab + Gann 151² support) → Target 23,800. Stop-loss: 22,950.
3. Intraday Outlook (5M–4H)
Key Levels:
Resistance: 23,400 (Gann 1x1), 23,450 (weekly high).
Support: 23,300 (VWAP), 23,200 (Ichimoku cloud), 23,100 (psychological).
Indicators:
Ichimoku (1H):
Tenkan: 23,360, Kijun: 23,330 → Price above both (short-term bullish).
Cloud: Bullish (23,280–23,320) – strong support zone.
RSI + Bollinger Bands (4H):
RSI(14): 58 (neutral).
Price near mid-BB(20,2): 23,350 – break below signals bearish momentum.
VWAP + MAs:
VWAP: 23,340 (intraday pivot).
EMA(50): 23,310 (dynamic support).
Candlestick Patterns:
4H Shooting Star at 23,450 (15th Aug) → Bearish reversal confirmed.
1H Bearish Engulfing below 23,380 – adds downside pressure.
Gann Intraday Squaring:
Time Cycle: 8:00–10:00 AM CET (European open) for volatility.
Price Harmony: Close below 23,350 targets 23,300 → 23,250.
Intraday Trade Plan:
Sell below 23,350 → Target 23,300 (VWAP) → 23,250 (Ichimoku cloud).
Buy above 23,400 only with RSI <60 → Target 23,450.
Stop-Loss: 25–30 points risk.
Summary of Key Signals
Time Frame Bias Entry Target Stop-Loss
Intraday Bearish <23,350 23,340–23,350 23,250–23,300 23,380
Swing Bullish 23,100–23,150 23,600–23,800 22,950
Swing Bearish 23,390–23,420 23,100–23,200 23,500
Critical Events Ahead:
Gann Reversal Window: Aug 18–20 (watch for Eurozone CPI/GDP data).
Daily Close >23,450 invalidates bearish ABCD and targets 23,716.
Risk Note: GER40 is sensitive to EU political/energy risks. Use tight stops during news events.
Disclaimer: Technical analysis is probabilistic and based on historical patterns. Fundamental drivers (e.g., ECB policy, German industrial data) may override technical signals. Always use risk management.
For those interested in further developing their trading skills based on these types of analyses, consider exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya dot Trade . (world wide web shunya dot trade)
I welcome your feedback on this analysis, as it will inform and enhance my future work.
Regards,
Shunya.Trade
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⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
German / DEU40 / GER 40 - Heading SouthThe DAX (GER40) is hovering just around 24500 – not far from recent highs – but momentum is fading and Friday’s typical “profit-taking weakness” is already setting in.
From a technical perspective, the index is stuck near VWAP with flat RSI and decreasing volume. Price has failed to convincingly break higher this week and is starting to roll over. Buyers look tired, and Friday is not usually their strongest day.
Fundamentally, things aren’t looking too solid either:
- European data continues to underwhelm.
- Global risk sentiment is shaky as everyone waits for potential fallout from the Trump–Putin meeting today.
- Inflation ghosts are creeping back in, and central banks remain as noncommittal as ever.
Conclusion for me:
I’m leaning short into into the day. If we start slipping below 24,400 with volume, I expect some acceleration.
T1: 24,410
T2: 24,300
T3: 24,100
The one unpredictable variable? Again - The world's leaders. Their random decisions can obliterate any setup in seconds. Markets follow structure... until a politician wakes up and chooses violence. Today is a special day with the upcoming Meeting - Be careful. On the other hand, - one negative news regarding this upcoming event can nuke all the high expectations that are already priced in, which, in my opinion, strenghtens this trade!
No trading advice – just how I see it.
DAX Wave Analysis – 14 August 2025
- DAX reversed from the support level of 23500.00
- Likely to reach resistance level 24625.00
DAX index recently reversed up from the support level of 23500.00 (which has been reversing the price from May), standing near the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level of 23500.00 started the active short-term impulse wave B.
Given the clear daily uptrend, the DAX index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 24625.00, which stopped the previous impulse wave (3).
Trendline breakThe price broke a larger trendline followed by a pullback and smaller trendline to mark the end of the pullback and now the price is making a bullish impulse
WE ONLY TRADE PULLBACKS
DAX uptrend continuation breakoutThe DAX remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action indicating a potential oversold rally within the broader uptrend.
Support Zone: 23790 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level.
A bullish rebound from 23790 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at:
24540 – initial resistance
24670 – psychological and structural level
24980 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break and daily close below 23790 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward:
23610 – minor support
23400 – stronger support and potential demand zone
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact while the FTSE holds above 23790. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
DAX ORBAnother beautiful dax ORB moment. Dax continues to impress with its amazing ORB movement and rarely fails, allowing good rr and high win rate. Easiest strategy EVER!
Potential bearish breakout?GER40 is falling towards the support level, which is a pullback support. A potential breakout from this level could lead the price to fall towards our take-profit.
Entry: 24,005.71
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 24,405.92
Why we like it:
There is a multi swing high resistance.
Take profit: 24,498.13
Why we like it:
There is a multi swing low support.
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Both Technical and Valuation Signals Points Incoming VolatilityThe DAX has been moving sideways since May, with this flat movement evolving into a triangle formation since June. Price action is contracting, and the index appears to be waiting for a catalyst to determine its next direction.
The DAX is currently near the regression line from the November dip, which keeps both upward and downward possibilities open, consistent with the neutral signal from the triangle pattern.
From a valuation perspective, the DAX’s forward P/E ratio stands at 16.95x, roughly one standard deviation above its 2009-to-date regression line, making it relatively expensive compared to its own history. The S&P 500 trades at a much higher forward P/E of 24.25x, but that figure is near its own long-term regression line. Since early June, the DAX/S&P 500 ratio has fallen by nearly 10%, significantly reducing the DAX’s relative overvaluation and potentially giving it room for another leg higher.
Ultimately, the triangle formation may be the deciding factor. The current upper boundary is at 24,500, and the lower boundary is at 23,490. A break of either could bring volatility back to the DAX, with momentum likely to follow the breakout direction. An upward break could target the 24,400–24,500 zone.
GER30 shows a bullish momentum GER30 has just formed a bullish flag and we expect prices to continue pushing towards the upside
GER30 is very bullishGER30 has just formed a bullish flag and we expect prices to continue to push to the upside
GER30 H4 | Bullish bounceGER30 has bounced off the buy entry at 23,987.27, which is an overlap support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could potentially rise from this level to the upside.
Stop loss is at 23,741.98, which is a pullback support that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 24,642.79, which is a swing high resistance that lines up with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
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GERM30It's been a long time since I shared my idea.
Here we go; the market has collected enough liquidity to push up. It has bounced on the psychological area on the horizontal trend line where money gets pumped. Now that I missed the entry, I am waiting for a small pullback, then I'm in, taking my 1st TP in the 1st key level, and so on and so on.
DAX: Will Go Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DAX together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 24,048.10 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 24,154.31 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
DAX At Resistance Aiming for Lower Lows.Hi there,
The DAX looks bearish at the M30, aiming for the 23923.3 support area. It looks like it needs to be watched because the price could spike higher.
Happy trading, wishing you a lovely week.
Khiwe.
Not trading advice
Chop for Germany but imminent breakout luring Ok we are not supposed to make predictions but only reactions to trading right?
Well this time I am making a prediction.
Since the chop sideways box has been forming, a breakout is imminent.
Either it will break up and head to the initial target of 25,113.
Or it will breakdown and the market will have a correction.
Either way, the breakout will occur because Germany can't just stay in this range forever right?
So why the chop?
🌍 DAX strong abroad, weak at home
🐌 Earnings lag behind U.S. peers
🏛️ Bureaucracy & labor shortages drag
Let's hope for some optimistic news with DAX and that we do get a breakout and up to 25,113.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
GER40As mentioned before, dax is going to go down, then recover. So far on the 4H chart we can see it has already started its move down.
DAX40 Bullish Flag forming The DAX remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action indicating a potential oversold rally within the broader uptrend.
Support Zone: 23790 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level.
A bullish rebound from 23790 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at:
24540 – initial resistance
24670 – psychological and structural level
24980 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break and daily close below 23790 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward:
23610 – minor support
23400 – stronger support and potential demand zone
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact while the FTSE holds above 23790. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Technical Analysis WeeklyGermany 40 is in a range-bound environment, currently trading at 24,061, exactly at its VWAP of 24,061. RSI at 50 reflects balanced momentum. Support lies at 23,540 and resistance is seen at 24,657.
UK 100 continues its bullish trend, undergoing a small pullback. Price is at 9,131, just above its VWAP of 9,120. RSI at 61 indicates steady bullish interest. Support is at 9,026 and resistance is at 9,188.
Wall Street remains bullish but is now in a corrective phase. Price has dropped to 44,264, right below its VWAP of 44,300. The RSI of 51 suggests a neutral outlook with mild bullish undertones. Support is at 43,563 and resistance is at 45,160.
Brent Crude continues in a choppy range but has broken down to a 2-month low, trading at 6,659, below its VWAP of 6,840. The RSI at 42 highlights new downside pressure. Support sits at
6,453 and resistance at 7,226.
Gold remains in a neutral range, with price at 3,361, matching its VWAP and right in the middle of the range. The RSI at 50 shows a balanced market outlook. Support is at 3,283 and resistance is at 3,435.
EUR/USD holds a bullish trend but is correcting within a short term trading range. The pair trades at 1.1624, exactly at its VWAP. RSI at 50 reflects a balanced market. Support is at 1.14291 and resistance at 1.18296.
GBP/USD has rebounded within a downtrend to test the downtrend line. It trades at 1.3422, slightly above the VWAP of 1.3389. The RSI of 51 signals a balanced tone with possible upside. Support is at 1.3187 and resistance at 1.3592.
USD/JPY remains neutral in a range phase. A sharp reversal from above 150 has seen the price drop to 147.85, equal to its VWAP. RSI at 53 suggests a balanced outlook. Support is at 145.78 and resistance stands at 149.66.
DAX testing supportCould the DAX bounce back here after starting the day lower?
At the time of writing, the German benchmark index was testing key short-term support between 23,928 to 24,041. This area was previously resistance while the 21-day exponential average also comes into play here.
if we see a bounce here then a new all-time high could be on the cards. Else, a potential break down could target the old support and resistance range around 23,500.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
