Cherry94

Cherry94

Fundamentals & Sentiment USD: - USD is overbought according to CFTC, and CAD is oversold; Even if the buck is going higher in the medium term, it's time to cover some longs! - love USD short exposure in case of BoJ intervention CAD: - Inflation Expectations Differential - Decent PPI data - Canada is one of the strongest economies for the last Q + next month's...

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Fundamentals & Sentiment GBP: Yes, today's UK CPI release printed slightly above consensus. Does it change the inflation downtrend? Doesn't seem so. The readings couldn't even beat the previous ones. Moreover, the GBP swayed upward for instance until the market realized that disinflation persists - many GBP pairs seem eagerly absorbing any GBP demand. Overall,...

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Fundamentals & Sentiment USD: The sentiment has been bullish for a while as US CPI remains sticky. As the dollar gained strength. However, it became overpopulated with buyers, as evident from CFTC reports. So, it should take some trigger for those buyers to start covering their longs - a good potential for dollar downside. The CESI differential for USDCNH has...

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Fundamentals & Sentiment EUR: The euro has been strong compared to the franc as a lot of bad news for the Eurozone has already been priced in. There are already many bears on board supposedly unwinding their shorts, while the economic conditions in the EU are improving. Arguably, for the first time, the ECB started explicitly expressing possible rate cuts, while...

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Fundamentals & Sentiment ChinaA50: The pop higher yesterday didn't have any viable reason behind it. The data came out mixed. Technical & Other Followed the price action trigger to guess how the market interpreted the data. USD: The trade is meant to be very short-term, while USD paired with index shouldn't be that sensitive to forex volatility. Hence, the...

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Fundamentals & Sentiment WTI: In general, there are global drivers for oil demand, amongst them is supply curbs from OPEC. More recently geopolitical risks in Middle east create bias for oil upside. USD: The dollar has been overbought according to CFTC reports. The risk of BoJ intervention is still there, so it's better not buy dollars anyhow as long as USDJPY...

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Fundamentals & Sentiment AUD: Australia has beaten its neighbor in terms of robustness of the economy, with Services PMI and Avg Cash Earnings sustaining upward momentum best. Such economic performance also translated into better GDP QoQ growth paving the way for AUD to outperform NZD for the last 2 months and propelling the pair higher. It's also vividly...

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Fundamentals & Sentiment EUR: Contrary to the direction of this trade idea, the Eurozone economy has been doing quite well for the last few months. However, is it time for a technical correction? Risk reversals suggest that. NZD: Kiwi has been supported by good Building Permits from New Zealand and strong readings from Australia at the beginning of the...

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Fundamentals & Sentiment EUR: There was a lower than consensus Inflation data and a bad Unemployment print. I use these as triggers for a short-term momentum trade. CAD: Canadian economy is doing better than EU based on the main economic indicators. CAD is undervalued based on a few market internals (not EURCAD pairs though) Technical & Other Setup:...

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Fundamentals This is the second attempt to take advantage of the medium-term expected strength in AUD and dovish stance of SNB. The weak home sales data from the US can be a trigger for further risk-on upside momentum. Technical & Other Setup: S(B) Setup timeframe: 1h Trigger: 1h Risk: 0.26% Entry: buy stop

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Fundamentals & Sentiment USD: The sentiment has been bullish in the short-term as market is leaning towards 2 cuts instead of 3 from the Fed this year. The trigger to buy dollar is a solid beat in ISM Mfg PMI. GBP: Pound is overextended according to CFTC reports, while the UK fundaments hasn't really been backing such a growth - take a sluggish GDP for...

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Fundamentals & Sentiment The outlooks of SNB and RBA go in opposite directions, with SNB staying one of the most regulators and RBA not considering cutting rates until August. On the triggers side, we've got strong employment data from Australia today. From the other side, the SNB has cut the interest rate, while the market expected Hold with 63% odds. Finally,...

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Fundamentals USD: Light volume during the pre-Thanksgiving trading day - any weak US data can potentially move the market. The miss on Manufacturing PMI triggered a short-term bearish sentiment, another excuse to follow the narrative that the Fed is done hiking rates. EUR: Although the economic data wasn't so appealing, I stick with the strong EUR seasonals (EUR...

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Fundamentals GBP: Dovish outlook (Market is pricing BoE to cut rates in June 2024. The pound is also overpriced based on its yield differenial. Although the currency is quite stretched to the downside in the COT report, there's still some room to decline. JPY: BOJ is currently the most hawkish central bank. JPY is testing lows in COT report, so some rebound is...

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Fundamental USD: Yesterday's weak US CPI data provided a strong foundation for shorting US dollar, as the miss in inflation reaffirms the dovish view of the Fed. The expectations of todays labor data (more jobless claims) keeps the sentiment bearish for the USD. The seasonals suggest USD weakness. CAD: Loonie slumped due to big inventories yesterday. I believe...

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Fundamentals EUR: Today Germany posted weak Trade Balance data, so the sentiment is bearish. GBP: Although the rate hike cycle is looming, BoE is probably the only bank that still aims to hike rates. The market is pricing over a 90% chance of raising rates at the next meeting. Technical & other Setup: TC(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term:...

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Fundamentals AUD The slowdown of the Chinese economy drags down Australia which heavily exports to China, thus bearish sentiments in the AUD. Today economic data on China is mixed: even though there were some improvements in Manufacturing PMI, the markets couldn't hold gains in the next few hours. Such minor improvements are just a drop in the sea of current...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals AUD: Economic slowdown in China and issues in the real estate sector drag risk assets in the region down, including Australian ones. USD: "Higher rates for longer narrative" Technical & other Setup: TC(RTF) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Down Long-term: Down Min target: Aug lows Risk: 0.36%; 2 parts: 1st one - sell limit