Cherry94

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment NDX: - Tesla disappoints; Google EPS Beat, but the slowdown in advertising (NDX 8.2%, SPX 4.3%); tech sector is weak USD: Fundamentals & Sentiment - PMIs: Serv. up (although Mfg down) - Latest CPI printed down Technical & Other Setup: TR(B) Setup timeframe: D Trigger: 4h Medium-term: Up Long-term: Up Min target: ~3:1; DMA(100) Risk: 1.17%

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment GBP: - Services Inflation is at 5.7% (BoE exp. 5.1%; the BoE watches the metric) Cons: GBP is stretched to the upside according to CFTC USD: - Fed's stance is stable: wait and see - Weak Services PMI, Employment, Factory Orders - Disinflation overall Technical & Other Setup: TC(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term:...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment USD: - Fed's stance is stable: wait and see - Weak Services PMI, Employment, Factory Orders SPX500: - Pre-election debates: seasonals are skewed to the upside - General resistance of stocks lately Technical & Other Setup: TR(B) Setup timeframe: 1hh Trigger: 15m Medium-term: Up Long-term: Up Min target: local highs Risk: 0.47%

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment USD: - Fed's stance is stable: wait and see - Weak Services PMI, Employment, Factory Orders - Expectations of lower NFP number tomorrow SPX500: - Nvidia leads, AI theme - Pre-election debates: seasonals are skewed to the upside - General resistance of stocks lately Technical & Other Setup: TC(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger:...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment USD: - Weak Services PMI, Employment, Factory Orders - Expectations of lower NFP number tomorrow - Fed's stance is stable: wait and see AUD: - Policy meeting: "Policymakers stressed the need to remain vigilant about upside risks to inflation, adding that a material rise in prices could require significantly higher rates." - Interest...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment USD: - The Fed is still in "wait and see" mode - Recent US data has been weak (except JOLTS) - Services PMI is expected to come out weak today XAU: - both USD and XAU are stretched to the upside Technical & Other Setup: S(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 4h Medium-term: Range Long-term: Range Min target: local highs Risk: 0.84%

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment JPN225: - Final data showed that business activity in Japan turned contractionary in June for the first time since November. Technology stocks led the advance, triggering the index to pop higher. The tech sector is the third by weight in Nikkei (~15%). USD: - The Fed is still in "wait and see" mode - Recent US data has been weak...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment USD: - "Wait and see" stance of the Fed - Few positive data triggers CNH: - Not enough positive hard data to support China recovery narrative - PBoC is ok with some depreciation of Yuan as long as it's gradual. Technical & Other Setup: TCB) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 4h Medium term: Sideways Long-term: Down Min target: Risk: 0.28%

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment NZD: - Overbought according to CFTC EUR: - Market internals - CFTC - Euro has been holding despite the looming elections in France Technical & Other Setup: TR(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 4h Medium term: Sideways Long-term: Down Min target: 1.785 / DMA(100) Risk: 0.43%

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment SEK: Dovish rhetoric from the regulator: 3 cuts this year instead of 2 EUR: - Market internals - CFTC - Euro has been holding despite the looming elections in France Technical & Other Setup: TR(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 4h Medium term: Sideways Long-term: Down Min target: Risk: 0.28%

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment USD: - PMI is expected higher - Risk reversals GBP: - CFTC Overbought locally Technical & Other Setup: S(RTF) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium term: Down Long-term: Up Min target: local lows Risk: 0.2%

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment USD: - Fed's stance is stable: wait and see SPX500: - Nvidia leads, AI theme - Pre-election debates: seasonals are skewed to the upside - General resistance of stocks lately Technical & Other Setup: S(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium term: Up Long-term: Up Min target: 3:1 Risk: 0.28%

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment SPX500: - Earnings were strong - Nvidia is in uptrend USD: - Yields are falling - Big miss on PPI data + previous cold CPI Technical & Other Setup: TC(B) Setup timeframe: 1h Trigger: 5m Medium-term: Up Long-term: Up Min target: Fib ext Risk: 0.38%

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment NASDAQ100: - Nvidia holds a strong uptrend USD: - Yields & USD are underperforming from yesterday - The upcoming CPI consensus is lower than the previous Technical & Other Setup: TC(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 4h Medium-term: Up Long-term: Up Min target: Fib ext Risk: 1.04% *Pretty wide SL as I expect attempts to flush out...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment China: - Good PMI readings - Overall recovery narrative USD: - Bearish sentiment due to latest weak data(Mfg PMI, Labor) Technical & Other Setup: TR(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium term: Down Long-term: Up Min target: local highs Risk: 1.09%

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment EUR: - Cuts have been >80% priced in for a while - Latest French & German PMIs are higher than previous (although, not higher than consensus) - Numerous Market internals point to the upside AUD: - Expected GDP Growth Rate YoY is below the consensus - Copper prices are falling Technical & Other Setup: S(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger:...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment EUR: - Cuts have been >80% priced in for a while - Latest French & German PMIs are higher than previous (although, not higher than consensus) GBP: - Yield differential Technical & Other - very good technical setup on D Setup: TR(B) Setup timeframe: D Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Down Long-term: Range Min target: near DMA(200) Risk: 0.2%

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment NZD: - Hawkish comments from RBNZ - Positive carry - AUDNZD is in the mean reversion to the downside CHF: - SNB: "The SNB has already cut rates but it certainly sounds like there is more to come." - Market is pricing in the cut with some more room to go (<60% chance) Technical & Other Setup: TC(B) Setup timeframe: 1h Trigger:...