Fundamentals USD: Light volume during the pre-Thanksgiving trading day - any weak US data can potentially move the market. The miss on Manufacturing PMI triggered a short-term bearish sentiment, another excuse to follow the narrative that the Fed is done hiking rates. EUR: Although the economic data wasn't so appealing, I stick with the strong EUR seasonals (EUR...
Fundamentals GBP: Dovish outlook (Market is pricing BoE to cut rates in June 2024. The pound is also overpriced based on its yield differenial. Although the currency is quite stretched to the downside in the COT report, there's still some room to decline. JPY: BOJ is currently the most hawkish central bank. JPY is testing lows in COT report, so some rebound is...
Fundamental USD: Yesterday's weak US CPI data provided a strong foundation for shorting US dollar, as the miss in inflation reaffirms the dovish view of the Fed. The expectations of todays labor data (more jobless claims) keeps the sentiment bearish for the USD. The seasonals suggest USD weakness. CAD: Loonie slumped due to big inventories yesterday. I believe...
Fundamentals EUR: Today Germany posted weak Trade Balance data, so the sentiment is bearish. GBP: Although the rate hike cycle is looming, BoE is probably the only bank that still aims to hike rates. The market is pricing over a 90% chance of raising rates at the next meeting. Technical & other Setup: TC(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term:...
Fundamentals AUD The slowdown of the Chinese economy drags down Australia which heavily exports to China, thus bearish sentiments in the AUD. Today economic data on China is mixed: even though there were some improvements in Manufacturing PMI, the markets couldn't hold gains in the next few hours. Such minor improvements are just a drop in the sea of current...
Fundamentals AUD: Economic slowdown in China and issues in the real estate sector drag risk assets in the region down, including Australian ones. USD: "Higher rates for longer narrative" Technical & other Setup: TC(RTF) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Down Long-term: Down Min target: Aug lows Risk: 0.36%; 2 parts: 1st one - sell limit
Fundamentals USD: The US data and Fed's rhetoric hints the US hiking cycle is near the top. CAD: Opec oil cuts along with a few other factors provide bullish bias for oil. Technical & other Setup: TC(RTF) Setup timeframe: D Trigger: 4h Medium-term: Up Long-term: Down Min target: DMA(50) Risk: 0.5R
Fundamentals USD: The market sentiment changed, with declining US inflation and Fed's rhetoric of an approaching end of the hiking cycle. Thus, USD declined significantly and likely became overcrowded with bears. JPY: Ueda's remarks - he doesn't sound like he's going to change YCC soon. Technical & other Setup: TR(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger:...
Fundamentals EUR: Hawkish rhetoric from the ECB and rates pricing in a 95% chance of raising rates is an appropriate sentiment environment for the short-term long. USD: Lower than expected inflation release yesterday can be a trigger for the euro surge in the short-term. Technical & other Setup: S(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Down Long-term:...
Fundamentals AUD: Recent hike and expectations of further hikes to tame inflation, recent hawkish comments of Lowe. NZD: Although RBNZ hiked the rate, the bank declared it's the last hike in the cycle - NZD should be weak on dovish expectations for a while. Technicals & other TC(B) Medium term: Up Long term: Range Min. Target: Channel boundary + next technical level
Fundamentals EUR: There are indeed hawkish expectations as ECB officials reiterated the need for further hikes in June-July to tame sticky inflation. However, most if not all leading indicators' latest readings point to a decrease in economic activity. I believe yesterday's spike is the result of pricing in those hawkish expectations, which is overdone. The...
Overview: What's happening? The risk assets have been confirming their short-term weakness and the need to correct and digest recent gains. We can see that most of the stock indices are in negative territory these days. The big technical picture of DXY also suggests possible upward momentum. We can expect the increased volatility in the Forex market in the...
Global view: What's happening? While global coronavirus cases rise to 100 million, the risk assets keep rising as well! DXY remains relatively neutral, as it's range-bound between ~90.75 local resistance area and ~88.75 long-term support. I'd confidently consider trades in USD related pairs once DXY breaks either of the range borders. For now, it's better to...
What happened Now it got clear that the Dollar is correcting, as DXY closed the week strongly with a full-body weekly candle. At the same time, risk assets reacted negatively, tumbling on Friday. Be patient with USD I'm still reluctant to buy DXY anyhow. However, if there is a good long setup in safe-havens, I'd rather buy JPY, which has been historically...
What happened? The year has started with mixed DXY price action. It got pretty choppy lately, didn't it? It seems like the downtrend in USD loses its steam as we're approaching the long-term support on the monthly DXY chart. Many stock indices also tested their respective resistances. Wanna pick the bottom? From first sight, it's tempting to start...
My stance hasn't changed This week started with the DXY decline, as it's breaking down the local level 89.75, continuing the long-term downtrend. I expect a further decline, so I stay bullish on risk assets. How the market reacts to the virus As I expected, the market quickly recovered after the virus mutations news on December 21. I expect more short-term...
What's happening We've been consolidating for two weeks already, with the last week being more of downward pressure. The broad markets are consolidating near their respective resistance/support areas. The ultimate event I'm waiting for is the breakdown of 90.50 support and the continuation of the downtrend in DXY. I believe when we see that breakdown, the trend...