DXY(Dollar Index): This up wave will not last long.For TVC:DXY , don't be trapped with this up wave, it should not last long. What is happening now is only manipulation based on what we see.
Fed will continue to cut rates if not this year, next year and they are printing money, ending the QT and also things are not okay. Based on that, on the fundamental part of things and We Trade Waves wave analysis concept. Any sell setup we get for DXY we will go for it BUT:
Always remember WTW 4 Golder Rules:
1) Do not jump in
2) Do not over risk/trade
3) Do not trade without Stop Loss
4) Never ever add to a losing position!
Trade with care
We Trade Waves
WTW Team
Disclosure: We are part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in our analysis.
Trade ideas
USD Falling Wedge Breakout, 4-month Highs into PullbackUSD put in another rate cut rally after the Fed's move last week and that extends the Q4 theme that's seen a continuation of higher-highs and lows ever since the Fed's initial rate cut announcement in September.
Yesterday saw test of a big level at 100.22, which was the swing low from last year's start of FOMC rate cuts. That level printed at the rate cut announcement, held the lows for the next couple of weeks, and then price launched into a massive reversal that ran for all of Q4 and into the first couple weeks of 2025.
This year's iteration has been different and Treasury yields aren't jumping like they were last year, but the impact in USD is similar as the bullish sequence has been driven by the FOMC announcements and that keeps bulls in the driver's seat for short-term trends.
With some profit taking showing after that push up to fresh highs and test of a key resistance level yesterday, the question now is whether bulls come in to defend the move. There's three spots of support just below price that each set the stage for continuation.
The 99.40 level was resistance earlier in October, after having shown as resistance in June. Just below that, the 98.98 Fibonacci level still looms large, and there's another spot of resistance turned support at 98.60 that sits below that and currently functions as an 's3' area. - JS
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): Too Overbought Now
Looks like Dollar Index finally starts correction.
A test of a significant hisotric daily resistance triggered
a bearish movement and an intraday change of character
on a 4H time frame.
I think that the market may drop lower.
Goal - 99.8
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DXY Near 100 as Rate-Cut Odds Fade and Uptrend Remains IntactHey Traders,
In today’s trading session we are monitoring the US Dollar Index (DXY) for a buying opportunity around the 100.000 zone. The Index is trading in a broader uptrend and currently is in a correction phase, approaching the trend support/resistance area near 100.000.
Structure:
The prevailing trend remains bullish, though price is consolidating and retesting the support/resistance level at 100.000. A solid rebound here could signal a resumption of the upward trajectory.
Fundamentals:
Recent commentary from the Federal Reserve indicates that a rate cut in December is increasingly unlikely. This hawkish tilt supports the Dollar and reinforces the up-trend scenario.
Next move:
Watching how price behaves around 100.000 — if the level holds, the bias remains bullish; a break below would call structural risk into question.
Trade safe,
Joe.
DXY — London Session🧭 Market Context
Dollar capped down overnight from 99.762 to 99.704 but still trades above the key bullish structure point at 99.525. The structure remains bullish overall, yet price keeps failing to break through 99.875 — the current cap. London session has filled yesterday’s balance range, leaving us in neutral territory.
We’re sitting on zero deviation — meaning equal chance to push higher or rotate lower.
Before taking any position, we need confirmation.
📈 Technical Frame DSM + VFA
Structure stays constructive but momentum is fading.
Volume shows thinning participation near 99.875 — professionals aren’t chasing.
If we see clear volume conviction through that level, we likely drive higher and fill the capped zone. If price slips below 99.525, expect a liquidity sweep into the lower volume pocket near 99.40. Right now, this is observation mode — not engagement mode.
🌍 Fundamental Frame (Macro Logic)
Overnight softness came from mild risk-on sentiment — Asia equities up, yields down.
Still, the Fed’s tone stays restrictive, and dollar demand remains under the surface.
This move looks more like positioning ahead of NFP than any real shift in trend.
🏛️ Coach’s Lens
When the market sits in balance, patience becomes the edge.
Professionals wait for clarity; amateurs act on hope.
Bias follows structure — not emotion.
🎯 Operator Rule
Confirmation defines conviction.
— CORE5DAN
Institutional Logic. Modern Technology. Real Freedom.
Dollar index analysisAccording to our previous analysis, the Dollar Index finally managed to reach the 100 zone. Now we need to see whether it can close above the 100 level without making a fake breakout downward. If it can give a solid close above 100, then we can start considering long positions on the Dollar Index or sell positions on EUR/USD.
DXY Daily Outlook — Bullish Order Flow Toward Equal HighsHello traders 👋
On the DXY daily chart, we can clearly see that price showed a strong bullish reaction after grabbing liquidity below 96.37, initiating a bullish order flow that, in my view, is still in progress.
The equal highs above the current price act as a potential draw on liquidity and serve as my first bullish target.
However, keep an eye on the trendline liquidity forming below the current price — there’s a possibility that price may sweep this liquidity before continuing higher.
Overall, my bias remains bullish for now.
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💡Wait for the update!
DXY Bullish Continuation Risks Challenge the 100.20-ResistanceOn the daily chart, the DXY’s rebound from its 17-year support near 96 resembles an inverted head-and-shoulders breakout, currently testing the 100.20 resistance.
A confirmed close above this level would complete the pattern, targeting the 101.80 and 103.40 levels — moves that could potentially pressure GBPUSD toward 1.2940 and 1.2740, as detailed in the following charts.
From the downside, if the DXY retreats below 99.40, the selling pressure on major currencies may ease. In that scenario, the DXY is expected to retest the neckline and validate the inverted head-and-shoulders formation, with the trendline connecting consecutive lower highs from May to August, between 98.50 and 98.00.
- Razan Hilal, CMT
DXY FRGNT Daily Forecast -Q4 | W45 | D6| Y25 |📅 Q4 | W45 | D6| Y25 |
📊 DXY FRGNT Daily Forecast
🔍 Analysis Approach:
I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on:
Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️
Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐
Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎
Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅
This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price.
💡 My Motto:
"Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge."
A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐
⚠️ Losses?
They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲
They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️
🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast.
Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital
— FRNGT 🚀
TVC:DXY
dxy 1h🔹 Overall Outlook and Potential Price Movements
In the charts above, we have outlined the overall outlook and possible price movement paths.
As shown, each analysis highlights a key support or resistance zone near the current market price. The market’s reaction to these zones — whether a breakout or rejection — will likely determine the next direction of the price toward the specified levels.
⚠️ Important Note:
The purpose of these trading perspectives is to identify key upcoming price levels and assess potential market reactions. The provided analyses are not trading signals in any way.
✅ Recommendation for Use:
To make effective use of these analyses, it is advised to manually draw the marked zones on your chart. Then, on the 5-minute time frame, monitor the candlestick behavior and look for valid entry triggers before making any trading decisions.
Bullish continuation setup?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 99.53
1st Support: 98.55
1st Resistance: 101.46
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DXY Weekly Outlook – Two Key Scenarios AheadAs expected in the previous review, the price has reached the local point B.
Now the market stands at a crossroads, so let’s look at the possible scenarios for the upcoming week.
Plan A – Correction Within the Daily Order Flow
The first scenario suggests a slight correction.
The price may move into a small pullback within the daily order flow, find support there, and continue the movement toward point B.
As long as the market structure remains bullish, this scenario stays the main one.
Plan B – Possible Decline
However, we don’t cancel the bearish scenario.
Right now, the price is trading inside the weekly key level, and taking out the fractal high often acts as an indicator of a possible trend reversal.
That’s why, if the price breaks below the lower boundary of the daily order flow, I’ll start considering short setups.
Summary
Overall, the structure is still under pressure from major levels, and the coming week will show who takes control — buyers or sellers.
I’ll continue to monitor the reaction within the daily order flow zone and update the outlook in the next review.
DXY-USD Game PlanDXY-USD Game Plan
📊 Market Sentiment
On 29/10, the FED lowered rates by 25BPS as expected. However, Powell’s remarks introduced uncertainty regarding December’s potential cut, stating that decisions will depend on upcoming data.
One FED member dissented, preferring no cut, a shift from September’s unanimous decision.
As a result, rate cut expectations dropped from 95% to 68%, sparking short-term bullish sentiment for the USD, as traders adjusted portfolios toward defensive positioning.
📈 Technical Analysis
The Dollar Index (DXY) hit its HTF Weekly Bullish Trendline and got rejected, forming a structural reversal pattern.
We’ve now seen a break of short-term daily bearish trend, confirming strength and a potential leg higher toward 102.00 (Monthly FFVG).
📌 Game Plan / Expectations
Expecting price to wick or close above 100.25, then potentially retrace before resuming the bullish leg.
Primary upside target: Monthly FFVG zone at 102.00.
Sentiment remains bullish for the dollar short term, which may pressure risk assets (stocks and crypto) temporarily.
💬 If this DXY breakdown supports your macro view, like, comment, and follow.
For deeper insights and liquidity-based macro models, subscribe to my Substack (free access available).
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before trading or investing.
DXY & final liquidityFundamental Analysis :
Based on the current macroeconomic backdrop, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) appears to be entering a short-term corrective move to the upside, potentially toward the 100–101 liquidity zone, before resuming its broader bearish trend.
This aligns with the visible Head & Shoulders structure and the small Quasimodo (QM) zone that’s likely to attract liquidity before a larger downside move.
Short-Term View (Correction Toward 101):
Recent U.S. employment and retail sales data have shown relative strength, leading markets to delay expectations for Fed rate cuts.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have seen a mild recovery, prompting short-term dollar demand as investors rebalance risk exposure.
The Federal Reserve’s “data-dependent” stance keeps the market uncertain ahead of the next inflation releases, providing a temporary bid for the dollar.
➤ This corrective phase corresponds to the small QM zone (100–101) where liquidity collection and retesting of previous resistance are likely.
Medium- to Long-Term View (Bearish Reversal After 101):
Core inflation (PCE) continues to trend lower, approaching the Fed’s 2.5% target range.
Labor market softness is becoming more visible through higher unemployment and slowing wage growth.
The probability of rate cuts beginning in early 2026 is increasing, which would significantly reduce the dollar’s yield advantage.
Meanwhile, other major economies (Europe, China, Japan) are stabilizing, which could rebalance global demand away from the USD.
Additionally, rising U.S. government debt and fiscal deficit concerns are weighing on real yields and long-term dollar sentiment.
➤ These factors suggest that once liquidity is collected near 101, DXY could begin a new bearish leg toward the 95–92.5 demand zone.
The current upward move in the dollar is likely a final liquidity grab before the next major decline.
From a fundamental perspective, this aligns with short-term resilience in economic data, followed by an eventual shift toward monetary easing and weaker growth momentum — perfectly in line with technical scenario.
Dollar Rises Amid Record US Shutdown and Liquidity ShortageThe dollar index is climbing as the US faces its longest government shutdown on record. The FRED:SOFR rate is trading 0.23 percentage points above the FRED:IORB , signaling a liquidity shortage. Unfortunately, TradingView data doesn’t cover the 2019 liquidity crunch, but the current situation looks similar.
Earlier this week, Logan highlighted the elevated repo rate and noted that the Fed may need to step in and purchase assets if conditions persist. The liquidity shortage is putting upward pressure on the dollar index. A breakout above 101 could accelerate that pressure further.
If the US shutdown ends, renewed government spending could ease the liquidity strain, allowing the dollar to retreat. Until then, upward momentum is likely to continue.
DXY — London SessionThe Dollar reached its 99.8 target and closed the day above it, confirming short-term strength. Price now trades stretched on the daily chart, well above its normal rhythm. As long as daily lows keep printing higher, structure holds — but with both weekly and monthly charts in correction, momentum could fade quickly. This is a day-by-day market where clarity matters more than conviction.
On the technical side, DXY shows rhythm exhaustion — clear deviation from its average range. When price moves this far from balance, professionals stop chasing and wait for rhythm to reset. The key signal now is whether the next daily low holds or breaks; that decides who controls the tape.
Macro conditions still support the Dollar. The Fed’s tone stays cautious on further cuts, while the U.S. government shutdown keeps data flow limited. Investors prefer safety over yield, and capital continues to park in USD for clarity and liquidity. It’s not a growth story — it’s a stability story.
When a target hits, professionals re-map before acting again. The next decision comes from structure, not emotion.
Operator Rule: After targets hit, think — don’t chase.
- Institutional Logic. Modern Technology. Real Freedom.
The Dollar Index Near a Key HighThe Dollar Index Near a Key High
As shown on the Dollar Index (DXY) chart, the strength of the US currency is currently hovering near an important high reached in August. Market sentiment is being influenced by:
→ the ongoing government shutdown, which has already become the longest in history;
→ traders’ assessment of last week’s developments, including the Fed’s interest rate cut, the meeting between the US and Chinese presidents in South Korea, and quarterly earnings reports from major corporations.
Adding to the turbulence is the political factor: according to media reports, Democrats have achieved victories in several local elections. Notably, Zohran Mamdani – a Muslim candidate from the Democratic Party – has been elected Mayor of New York for the first time.
Technical Analysis of the DXY Chart
It is worth recalling that on 19 September we published an important analysis of the DXY chart, in which we:
→ highlighted the false breakout of the 1 July low;
→ suggested a bullish scenario.
Following this, the price rose to the upper boundary of the red channel. In our earlier analysis, we:
→ constructed an ascending channel;
→ anticipated that the upward trajectory would remain relevant.
That scenario played out – demand proved strong enough to overcome:
→ resistance around the 95-point level, where a double-top pattern (a–b) had previously formed;
→ the psychological barrier at 100 points.
It is possible that the 3.7% rise in the Dollar Index over roughly one and a half months could attract sellers. The main intrigue now lies in whether we will see an aggressive reversal accompanied by a false breakout – similar to what occurred in September, but this time in a downward direction.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
DXY FRGNT Daily Forecast -Q4 | W45 | D5| Y25 |📅 Q4 | W45 | D5| Y25 |
📊 DXY FRGNT Daily Forecast
🔍 Analysis Approach:
I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on:
Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️
Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐
Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎
Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅
This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price.
💡 My Motto:
"Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge."
A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐
⚠️ Losses?
They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲
They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️
🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast.
Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital
— FRNGT 🚀
TVC:DXY






















