Get started
US Dollar indexUS Dollar indexUS Dollar index

US Dollar index

No trades
See on Supercharts
Overview News
Ideas
Discussions Seasonals

DX.F trade ideas

Dollar Index - How Low Can We Really Go?The U.S. dollar is having the kind of year that makes you check if someone switched its medication — down about 10% so far in 2025, its worst showing since Richard Nixon murdered the gold standard. Momentum traders had a field day this week with low resistance from 98.100 to 97.500 within one trading session. This draw towards sell side liquidity was covered in the previous analysis and if you participated in the short play this week, you should be proud of yourself! GBPUSD and EURUSD (the only 2 FX pairs I track) rallied on dollar weakness, targeting premium arrays on the 1-hour timeframe. Although my overall bias for dollar index is bearish which will provide risk on scenarios, it does not mean every single week will print limit down. Retracements are expected. For this reason, I am playing it safe by being neutral.
TVC:DXY
by LegendSince
Okay, here is a brief analysis of the US Dollar Index (DXY). **Okay, here is a brief analysis of the US Dollar Index (DXY). **Fundamental Analysis:** The US Dollar Index (DXY) is a composite measure of the dollar's value against a basket of major currencies. Its trajectory is primarily driven by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance and the relative strength of the US economy. The dollar typically strengthens when the Fed adopts a hawkish stance (hiking rates or signaling hikes), US economic data outperforms (e.g., NFP, GDP, CPI exceeding expectations), or global risk-off sentiment sparks safe-haven demand. Conversely, it often weakens on expectations of Fed rate cuts, weak US data, or improved global risk appetite. **Technical Analysis:** From a technical perspective, after a prolonged rally fueled by an aggressive hiking cycle, the DXY has recently been consolidating at high levels. The 105-106 zone is a crucial pivot point. A decisive break and hold above 107 could signal a resumption of the uptrend. However, a sustained break below key support near 104 might indicate exhausted bullish momentum and risk a deeper correction. Traders should watch its correlation with US Treasury yields closely. **Summary and Outlook:** In the short term, the DXY's movement will remain highly volatile, closely tied to Fed policy expectations and economic data releases. Its longer-term direction depends on the growth and interest rate differential outlook between the US and other major economies (particularly the Eurozone). The market is still pricing in the Fed's rate cut path, keeping the dollar's near-term direction uncertain. *** *Disclaimer: The above content is market analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Markets are risky; invest with caution.*
INDEX:DXYShort
by trade1638
DXY4H Trading Outlook for the Upcoming Week In this series of analyses, we review trading perspectives and short-term outlooks. As can be seen, in each analysis there is a key support/resistance zone near the current price of the asset. The market’s reaction to—or breakout from—this zone will determine the next price movement toward the specified levels. Important Note: The purpose of these trading outlooks is to highlight key levels ahead of the price and the market’s potential reactions to them. The analyses provided are by no means trading signals!
TVC:DXY
by esmaeilesmaeilzade_fx
DXY Outlook: Volatility Dominates as Fed Uncertainty PersistsDXY Outlook: Volatility Dominates as Fed Uncertainty Persists DXY (US Dollar Index) Analysis Report 🔎 Technical Outlook The index recently moved in a clear upward cycle, followed by a sharp rejection, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to macro shifts. Price action has transitioned into volatile swings, with both bullish and bearish impulses shaping short-term structure. Current momentum shows cyclical corrections within a broader attempt to sustain bullish rhythm, but intraday moves remain reactive to news flows. Market behavior suggests traders are seeking liquidity both sides before choosing a decisive directional move. 🌍 Fundamental Outlook Federal Reserve Policy: Speculation around rate adjustments remains the dominant driver. Softer inflation data has kept expectations for gradual easing alive, while labor market resilience adds uncertainty. Global Risk Sentiment: Dollar demand fluctuates with equity market flows — stronger equities reduce safe-haven demand, while risk-off tones boost USD. Geopolitical Factors: Ongoing tensions in trade and global supply chain disruptions support occasional flight-to-safety flows into the dollar. Comparative Growth: While the US economy shows relative resilience versus peers, diverging central bank policies (ECB, BOJ, BOE) also influence dollar positioning. Investor Behavior: Large funds are rebalancing exposure — maintaining a neutral to cautiously bullish stance on USD until clearer macro signals emerge.
TVC:DXYLong
by XAU_EMPIRE
DXY DOLLAR INDEX GOLD BULLS WINS ON ECONOMIC DATA REPORT . BREAKDOWN. Indicator Current Forecast Previous Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Non-Farm Employment Change 22,000 75,000 79,000 Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% Fed Interpretation: Average Hourly Earnings (0.3% m/m): In line with forecasts and previous data, showing steady wage growth. Stable wage growth suggests moderate inflation pressure from labor costs. Non-Farm Employment Change (22,000): Significantly below forecast (75,000) and previous month (79,000), indicating a sharp slowdown in job creation. This suggests labor market cooling, potentially reflecting economic slowdown or more cautious hiring by employers. The agency responsible for the US Non-Farm Employment Change data is the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which is part of the U.S. Department of Labor The report, often released on the first Friday of each month, measures the change in the number of people employed in the US excluding farm workers, private household employees, and nonprofit organization employees. It is based on the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey which covers about 141,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 486,000 worksites. The data provides detailed insights into employment, hours worked, and earnings across various industries. The report is closely watched as a key indicator of labor market health and overall economic performance. Unemployment Rate (4.3%): Slightly increased from previous 4.2%, matching forecast. A rising unemployment rate confirms some softening in labor market conditions. The agency responsible for measuring and reporting the Unemployment Rate in the United States is the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which is part of the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL). Key Points: The Unemployment Rate is part of the monthly Employment Situation Report produced by the BLS. It measures the percentage of the labor force that is jobless but actively seeking work. Data for the unemployment rate is collected through the Current Population Survey (CPS), which surveys approximately 60,000 households. The BLS releases the unemployment rate and other labor statistics on the first Friday of every month. The Department of Labor oversees the BLS, which is responsible for gathering and disseminating this critical labor market data that influences economic policy, including Federal Reserve decisions. Summary: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): the official source for the unemployment rate. U.S. Department of Labor (DOL): the parent department supervising BLS operations. The unemployment rate data helps assess economic health and guides policy decisions on employment and inflation. Overall Fed Takeaway: The marked slowdown in job growth combined with a slight rise in unemployment signals weakening labor market strength Stable wage growth limits upside inflation risks from labor costs. These signals suggest easing inflation pressures and a slowing economy, which might encourage the Fed to pause further rate hikes or consider cutting rates soon to support growth. The Fed will likely weigh this data alongside other inflation and economic indicators to decide the next policy step but may lean cautiously towards easing given the weaker jobs data. In summary, today’s data points to a moderating labor market with controlled wage inflation that supports a more dovish Fed approach in upcoming meetings. DXY DEFENDED 97,428 ON DATA RPORT AND CLOSE THE 4HR ABOVE KEY SUPPORT STRUCTURE TO 97.722 AS AT REPORTING. THE US 10Y BOND YIELD 4.056% SINKING TODAY BUT ON STRUCTURE THE US10Y IS ON DEMANDFLOOR AND BOND BUYING COULD OFFSET GOLS GAINS TODAY. OPEN OF NEXT WEEK GOLD WILL CORRECT BECAUSE ITS OVER BOUGHT. #GOLD #DXY #US10Y #DOLLAR
TVC:DXY
by Shavyfxhub
DXY Update📉 Outlook: USD remains under pressure as weak August NFP (22K jobs vs. 75K expected) reinforces bets on a Fed rate cut in mid-September. 📊 Key Levels: Support: 97.90 → 97.50 → 97.00 Resistance: 98.35 → 98.80 → 99.20 🎯 Scenarios: Bearish: Break below 97.90 → 97.50–97.00 Bullish: Recovery above 98.35 → 98.80–99.20 ⏱ Next Catalyst: US CPI (Sept 11) – a hotter print could trigger a USD rebound; soft data may extend the decline. Summary: DXY in medium-term downtrend. Short-term price trapped near critical support. Watch CPI for the next directional move.
TVC:DXYShort
by Nasim-Etemadi
Non-Farm Employment ChangeHonestly, today it’s hard to make any solid analysis because of the major news that’s about to be released. That news will definitely create a big candle and make all our analyses look fake. In situations like this — right before news time and on the last day of the market — taking a position isn’t really logical, unless we open a 50/50 trade with risk management and just bet on whether the news goes in our favor or against us. To be honest, I don’t like these kinds of trades that feel like flipping a coin. I prefer to stay on the sidelines during the news and wait until next week, once the chart finds its direction, and then go with the trend.
TVC:DXY
by PouyanFa
1
LIQUIDITY SWEEP ON DXY BEFORE FALLINGIn this weekend dollar index analysis presentation, my thesis is sideways liquidity sweep before a daily bear flag breakout to the downside. Momentum and RSI on the higher timeframe are still to downside suggesting more selling. Price is still trapped below all our moving averages confirming our trend bias. On the weekly time frame we have a couple of inverted candles at a fib 0.618 support zone suggesting a likely reversal from a higher low but I think these inverted candles are liquidity sweeps from the 0.382 fib retrace resistance level. The daily chart has a strong shooting star which initiated selling pressure to the current trendline support level at 97.432 where our last daily candle was a doji indecision or pause. In the coming first trading week of September, I will be watching for clear break of the trendline on the daily chart and a confirmed breakout of the fib 0.618 support zone at 97.187 for an initial target of 96.702 and final target of 96.155. Thank you and have a great profitable trading new month. Cheers!!
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by RICHINVESTOR
Dollar Index Surges:Bullish Momentum Sparks New OpportunitiesThe DXY Dollar Index Futures kicked off the new week with a strong bullish candle, signaling renewed upward momentum. According to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data, non-commercial traders are reducing their bearish bets, indicating a shift in market sentiment. Meanwhile, commercial traders are holding positions at levels not seen since 2021, suggesting confidence in the dollar’s strength. Retail traders, on the other hand, continue to push against the trend, maintaining bearish pressure. Recently, the price retested a key demand zone at the end of last week, which could present a strategic buy opportunity at a discounted level. What are your thoughts on this setup? ✅ Please share your thoughts about DXY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
TVC:DXYLong
by FOREXN1
1
DXY Strategy Unlocked — Will Bulls Control the Next Swing?⚡ US Dollar Index (DXY) Swing/Day Trade Setup ⚡ 💹 Asset: DXY (US Dollar Index) 📈 Plan: Bullish — Pending Order Strategy 📊 US Dollar Index (DXY) Real-Time Data Daily Change: +0.55 (+0.56%) Day's Range: 97.62 – 98.60 52-Week Range: 96.38 – 110.18 🔔 Trade Setup (Thief Plan) Breakout Entry: 98.800 ⚡ (Set TradingView alarm to catch the move in real time) Stop Loss: “Thief SL” @ 24,000.0 (only after breakout confirmation). 📝 Adjust your SL based on your strategy & risk appetite, Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s). Target: Resistance/overbought zone at 100.20 🎩 Escape target: 100.000 (take profits before market flips). 😰 Fear & Greed Sentiment Index Level: 64 (Greed) Market Mood: Moderately greedy, driven by: 📉 Net new 52-week highs vs. lows (bullish) 📊 VIX near averages (neutral) 🛡️ Bonds underperforming stocks (risk-on) 📈 Junk bond demand narrowing spreads (greed signal) 🌍 Fundamental & Macro Score Fed Rate Cut Probability: 90% (Sept 18 FOMC, 25 bps cut expected) Key Drivers: ✅ Labor Data: NFP (Sept 5) is crucial for direction. ⚠️ Trade Policy: Court ruled Trump tariffs illegal (appeal pending). ⬇️ Consumer Confidence: Michigan Index at 3-month low (58.2). ⬆️ ISM Manufacturing: Ahead of release, possible USD support. Safe-Haven Demand: Geopolitical tensions supporting USD. 🐂 Overall Market Outlook Score Bullish (Long): 60% Bearish (Short): 40% Bias: Short-term bullish as long as 97.60 holds. USD rebound + bond yield strength + equity weakness backing USD. ⚠️ Risk: Break below 97.60 → next target 96.55 (bearish). 💡 Key Takeaways 🎯 NFP Report (Sept 5) = decisive catalyst. ⚖️ Fed debates + trade policy = medium-term uncertainty. 📉 Breakout above 98.80 is the key to bullish continuation. 🔍 Related Markets to Watch FX:EURUSD FX:GBPUSD FX:USDJPY OANDA:XAUUSD CAPITALCOM:US30 ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” #DXY #USD #DollarIndex #Forex #DayTrading #SwingTrading #BreakoutStrategy #ThiefTrader #TradingSetup
TVC:DXYLong
by The-Thief
DXY Intraday Overview- US Dollar Index (DXY) breached the symmetrical triangle downwards and sustained downwards. - It indicates that sellers are still strong, hence the structure remains downwards. 🔽 If the immediate support level of 97.80 (fib level 0.786) is broken again, then the price will continue its fall to the next support zone between 97.56 - 97.50 🔼 However, if the price manages to recover and break through the resistance level of 97.90, we can expect a further rise to the level of 98.00.
FXOPEN:DXYShort
by Nadia_farhat
Do you believe that the US dollar will continue to fall or not?Recently, there has been a lot of discussion about the US dollar losing its status as a reserve currency. If you look at the chart of the USD index, you can see that it has decreased from its peak in 2022 (114.77) to its current level (96.37), which is a drop of around 16% over the past two and a half years. From a technical perspective, this drop makes sense, as the dollar's popularity had grown before, and it gained more than 62% between the lows of 2008 and the peaks in 2022. It would be difficult to list all the reasons why this increase occurred, but the main question now is whether the US currency will continue to decline or if it has a chance to recover. Before we answer that, let's first determine which wave the USD index is currently in. Based on my calculations, the growth cycle began at a level of 70.70 in the year 2008. Wave 1 represented an increase from 70.70 to 89.62 and took approximately two years to form. This wave was followed by Wave 2, which almost fully corrected Wave 1. Wave 3 went from 72.69 to 103.82 (and, as expected, the third wave beats on five waves of a lesser order), with Wave 3 representing 1.618% of Wave 1. Wave 4 gave a correction of 50% to the wavelength of Wave 3, in the short term, Wave 4 went beyond the maximum of Wave 1. But this rule makes sense only for non-marginal markets. Futures markets, with their high margins, can lead to short-term price spikes that would not occur in markets without borrowed funds, so an intersection is allowed, which is usually limited to daily or intraday price changes. Wave 4 lasted approximately 4.5 years, after which growth was continued by Wave 5. This raised the US dollar index to a level of 114.77, representing 1.272 percent of Wave 1. Therefore, it took approximately 14 years for the entire index to grow. At the moment, the current growth of 70.70-114.77 has been adjusted by approximately 38.2%, and visually, the ABC structure appears complete. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index has made a third contact with the support line, which has been in place since April 2011. Based on this, it is likely that we can anticipate some recovery in the position of the US currency. However, there is an important nuance that could overshadow medium-term predictions for the growth of the dollar. Specifically, it relates to the temporary adjustment parameter. As can be seen within the impulse wave, waves 2 and 4 were quite long in time, and therefore, the entire ABC pattern, in my view, occurred too quickly relative to the overall 14-year growth trend. And the following conclusions follow from this: 1) Yes, we can expect a rebound from the long-term upward support, and it is even possible that we will see a move in the US Dollar Index to 105-105.5 or 108, but it is unlikely to be higher. 2) However, it is also worth noting that the US dollar is likely to continue its downward trend for the foreseeable future. Because a 2.5-year pullback is clearly not enough to correct a 14-year growth, temporary movements should also be comparable, and the external zigzag may well become a double or triple zigzag and continue the pullback towards the 50-61.8% Fibonacci level to the growth wave of 70.70-114.77. That is, either towards 92.80-93, or towards 87.60. 3) Recently, analysts at deVere Group, one of the world's largest independent financial advisory and asset management organizations, suggested that the US currency will decline by another 10% over the next 12 months. This forecast is supported by similar predictions from other major financial institutions, which foresee a decline in the US currency due to slower growth, aggressive rate cuts and disruptions to global trade. www.tradingview.com
TVC:DXY
by scavoanastasiia
DXY - Dollar Could Rise if Fed's Cook Wins Fight Against Her DiDollar investors would express relief if U.S. courts thwart President Trump's attacks on the Federal Reserve, Commerzbank's Thu Lan Nguyen says in a note. A court on Friday heard Fed Governor Lisa Cook's request for a temporary retraining order to block Trump from removing her from the role. The hearing ended without a ruling. Trump faces the threat of a defeat as it seems questionable whether the grounds for Cook's dismissal are legally valid, Nguyen says. If the Fed's independence holds firm and the court rules against Cook's dismissal, the dollar could rise. "However, the courts' final ruling is still pending. It's "by no means guaranteed" that Trump would accept a ruling against him, she says.
ICEUS:DXYLong
by DynamicCapital-FX
US Dollar: Upside Price Target vs. GoldSince the historic print low of 70.69 in 2008, the US dollar has risen more than 55% to its current levels north of 110. There is no telling just how high the dollar can run amid the parabolic move upward from its 2021 low. An inverse head and shoulder pattern suggests a minimum upside price target of 117.64 or around 7% north of current levels. Fibonacci time cycles portend potential turning points this October and in November 2023. Despite all the headline inflation, the rise in the dollar is, by definition, deflationary. This suggests that given inflation remains steadily on the rise, the dollar needs to go significantly higher for its deflationary effects to manifest in the real economy. One item of particular note is the dollar-based price of gold today vs. at the dollar lows in 2008. At the all-time lows of 2008, Gold was trading in the $800-$1000 range. Contrast that to today, with a dollar that is 55% higher, and we see Gold trading at $1700. That says a lot about Gold's ability to hold its value amid a rising dollar, which is typically bearish for Gold.
INDEX:DXY
by Wave-Tech
2
DXY Neutral -BearishCAPITALCOM:DXY Quick read / bias Near-term neutral → biased bearish. Price has failed to produce a clean reversal from the large consolidation at the top, shows a series of lower-highs and liquidity hunts (marked ellipses / Imbalance repairs on the chart), and a visible “downside pressure” supply region above. The path of least resistance is down unless price reclaims the supply/consolidation zone above ~98.6–99.2. ------------------------------------------------ Key levels (from the chart) Major consolidation / supply: ~99.2 – 99.8 (big-picture resistance). Downside pressure / mid supply: ~98.5 – 98.8 (area to sell into). Recent micro highs: 98.39, 98.19, 97.99 (loci for liquidity). Current price (chart right): ~97.18. Recent local low/liquidity grab: 96.834. Weekly void / structural bottom to watch: 96.478 (labelled on chart). Invalidation for bearish thesis: close/hold above 99.2 (reclaim of consolidation). ------------------------------------------------ How I read the structure (step-by-step) Price spent time in a higher consolidation zone and then failed to reverse higher — that is a distribution / supply footprint rather than demand. The chart shows several short liquidity hunts above swing highs (grey ellipses) and subsequent strong selling — classic stop-hunts into supply then continuation lower. Imbalances / small supply boxes on the chart mark places the market tends to retest before continuing — these are high-probability sell zones on rallies. The sequence of lower highs and a recent push down to ~96.83 (buyer defence) gives a local support but not yet a valid reversal signal. Until price chops through the weekly void (96.478) or reclaims the supply, expect range/biased-down behavior. ------------------------------------------------ Trade setups (actionable — use your 5-min/1-min workflow) I’ll give two primary setups: a higher-probability short (sell the rally) and a contrarian long (mean-reversion). Use 5-min to identify displacement into the zone and 1-min for the exact micro reversal entry. ------------------------------------------------ Setup A — Primary: Short on rally into supply (preferred) Why: Market structure + downside pressure + Imbalance above make rallies into supply favourable. Area to enter (limit or wait for 1-min reversal): 98.00 – 98.20 (ideal limit ~98.10). Stop loss: 98.45 (just above the 98.39 / structure swing and above the Imbalance top). Targets (scale): T1: 97.00 — first logical demand and psychological level. T2: 96.50 — deeper swing support / mid structural level. T3: 96.478 — weekly void bottom (big target if momentum continues). Risk / reward (example entry 98.10 → stop 98.45): Risk = 0.35 index points. R:T1 ≈ 1.10 / 0.35 ≈ 3.14:1. R:T2 ≈ 1.60 / 0.35 ≈ 4.57:1. R:T3 ≈ 1.622 / 0.35 ≈ 4.63:1. Trigger: 5-min displacement into the 98.0–98.2 zone, then 1-min rejection pattern (pin bar / engulf / two-bar reversal) and ideally a filled Imbalance or wick extension that fails. Enter limit at Imbalance top or use a short after 1-min confirmation. ------------------------------------------------ Setup B — Secondary: Mean-reversion long (countertrend) Why: Buyers defended the 96.83 area previously; a clean, verified micro reversal at lower support can produce a quick retrace. This is lower probability vs the sell-the-rally plan and should be sized smaller. Area to enter (limit/1-min confirmation): 96.75 – 96.95 (example limit 96.85). Stop loss: 96.45 (below the 96.48 weekly void and the local wick). Targets (scale): T1: 97.40 (near recent chop / first structure). T2: 97.99 (previous micro high). T3: 98.39 (if momentum shifts to reclaim structure). Risk / reward (example entry 96.85 → stop 96.45): Risk = 0.40. R:T1 ≈ 0.55 / 0.40 ≈ 1.38:1. R:T2 ≈ 1.14 / 0.40 ≈ 2.85:1. R:T3 ≈ 1.54 / 0.40 ≈ 3.85:1. Trigger: Look for a 5-min exhaustion and 1-min clean micro reversal (two-bar bullish rejection) ideally with buy volume or a wick that holds. Keep size smaller than on shorts. ------------------------------------------------ Intraday scalp idea (quick) Long scalp on a 1-min reversal after a displacement down to ~96.83 with tight stop under the wick (e.g. 5–8 ticks) and target 97.20–97.40. Use only if price shows clean microstructure and momentum. Trade management rules Positioning: Risk a fixed % per trade (e.g., 0.5–1% of account) and size accordingly. The short setup has high RR — size to risk tolerance. Partial take: Take ~50% at T1, move stop to breakeven, let remainder run to T2/T3. If price stalls at T1: tighten stop to lock profit or exit if structure shows weakness. If price breaks and holds above 98.60 / 99.2: exit shorts and flip to neutral/bullish plan — the initial bearish thesis is invalidated. Use your timeframe combo: identify the displacement on 5-min, execute 1-min entry confirmation. ------------------------------------------------ Invalidation / alternative scenario Bearish invalidation: clean, sustained close above 98.6–99.2 (consolidation re-claim) — if that happens, the market likely shifts to bullish and short ideas should be abandoned. Bullish trigger: rally above 99.2 with follow-through and a higher low -> targets back toward 99.8. ------------------------------------------------ Final prediction Over the next sessions I expect failed rallies into 98.0–98.6 to be sold, which should gravitate price toward 97.00 → 96.50 → 96.48 if momentum confirms. Countertrend longs are possible as scalps/swing trades off 96.8–96.48, but they should be treated as lower-probability and sized smaller. If price instead reclaims and holds >99.2, the bearish bias is invalidated.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by JP_Tru