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NAS100 trade ideas

Nasdaq 100 Eyes New ATH if CPI Undershoots ExpectationsUSNAS100 – Overview The Nasdaq will trade under CPI pressure today, with volatility expected around the release. 📉 Bearish scenario: While below 23,870, momentum favors a move toward 23,695, with further downside risk to 23,510 → 23,280. 📈 Bullish scenario: A reversal and stabilization above 23,870–23,940 would open the path toward 24,090 and a new ATH near 24,240. ⚠️ CPI impact: Below 2.9% → supports bullish continuation for indices. Above 2.9% → likely triggers bearish momentum. Key Levels Pivot: 23,870 Resistance: 24,090 – 24,240 Support: 23,695 – 23,510 – 23,280
OANDA:NAS100USD
by SroshMayi
Beyond the Chart – NAS100 Through Technicals & Fundamentals⚖️ CAPITALCOM:US100 Fundamental Impact today • The core driver is the US CPI (inflation) + Unemployment Claims at 3:30 pm. • Expect increased volatility on NAS100 around that time: • ✅ Lower CPI + weaker jobs → Bullish NAS100 (rate cut hopes). • ❌ Higher CPI + strong jobs → Bearish NAS100 (higher for longer Fed). 1. Bearish Continuation (Main Scenario) • Rejection from the bearish FVG + BB zone → downside continuation. • Targeting: • 23,750 short-term liquidity sweep. • Then 23,700–23,650 (discount FVG). • Extended target: 23,540 (major discount PD array). 2. Deeper Retracement / Liquidity Sweep (Alternative Scenario) • Price might push slightly above the bearish FVG / BB zone (~23,900–23,930) to sweep late shorts. • Then reversal down, same targets as scenario 1. 3. Bullish Recovery (Less Likely for Now) • If price reclaims above 23,950–24,000, structure shifts bullish again. • Potential revisit of 24,100+ liquidity above the HH. ⸻ ⚖️ Bias • For now, bias is bearish unless 23,950–24,000 is broken with strength. • Volume histogram also shows selling momentum increasing after the rejection.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by iamtradingdon
NSDQ100 Bullish breakout support at 23500Key Developments US labor market revisions: BLS cut payrolls by -911k through March 2025, implying weaker labor conditions than thought. Markets took it in stride, with rate cut pricing steady at ~27bps for next week (-1.5bps on day). Fed outlook: Treasury Secretary Bessent urged recalibration of policy, echoing Trump’s criticism of “choking off growth.” Governor Lisa Cook remains in her role after a court blocked Trump’s attempt to remove her, ensuring full FOMC participation next week. Geopolitics: Middle East: Israel’s strike on Hamas leaders in Qatar drew criticism from Trump, seen as not aiding conflict resolution. Europe: Poland shot down drones from a Russian strike on Ukraine, escalating tensions with Moscow. Market Takeaways Payroll downgrades confirm a weaker labor backdrop but don’t materially change Fed cut expectations for September. Political noise around the Fed could fuel uncertainty, but markets are treating it as background risk. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated but had limited immediate market impact. Conclusion for Nasdaq 100 The Nasdaq 100 is likely to remain steady to slightly supported: Weaker labor revisions reduce concerns about overheating, reinforcing the Fed cut narrative. Limited geopolitical spillover into tech equities so far. Bond yields and Fed pricing, not payroll revisions, remain the key driver. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 24200 Resistance Level 2: 24380 Resistance Level 3: 24600 Support Level 1: 23500 Support Level 2: 23320 Support Level 3: 23125 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:USTEC
by TradeNation
USNAS100 Holds Above 23,690 – Bulls Eye 23,870 ATHUSNAS100 – Overview The Nasdaq 100 remains in bullish momentum while trading above the pivot at 23,690, with the next target near the ATH at 23,870. Technical Outlook: 📈 As long as price holds above 23,690, bullish momentum is expected toward 23,860 → 23,940 → 24,090. 📉 A confirmed 1H close below 23,690 would shift bias bearish, opening the way to 23,600 → 23,500 → 23,280. Key Levels: Pivot: 23,690 Resistance: 23,860 – 23,940 – 24,090 Support: 23,600 – 23,500 – 23,280
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by SroshMayi
NASDAQ NAS100 at a Crossroads: Riding Nvidias Surge with CautionThe immediate reaction to Nvidia's stellar earnings has been decidedly bullish, propelling the NASDAQ higher. We saw a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" event where the "news" was so powerful it triggered a "fear of missing out" (FOMO) rally with a healthy correction on Friday. In the next one to two weeks, the near-term bias is bullish, but with extreme caution. The market has received the fundamental "all-clear" it was waiting for from its most important company. However, the index is now technically overextended and sentiment is euphoric, making it vulnerable to a short-term pullback or consolidation. The primary trend, however, remains bullish IMO. 1. The Catalyst: Nvidia Earnings Nvidia didn't just beat expectations; it shattered them and raised future guidance, validating the entire AI investment thesis. Revenue & EPS: Significant beats on both the top and bottom lines. Guidance: Q2 revenue guidance of ~$28B was vastly higher than analyst estimates of ~$26.6B, demonstrating unprecedented demand for its Blackwell and Hopper architecture chips. Data Center: Revenue of $22.6B, up 427% year-over-year, is the core of the story. This shows that AI infrastructure spending is not slowing; it's accelerating. Stock Split: The announcement of a 10-for-1 stock split adds a psychological boost for retail investors, improving accessibility and reinforcing bullish sentiment. Analyst Interpretation: This wasn't just a quarterly report; it was a fundamental confirmation that the AI revolution has tangible, massive earnings power. It alleviated fears that the AI trade was a bubble. For the NASDAQ, which is market-cap weighted and heavily influenced by NVDA, this was rocket fuel. 2. Technical Analysis (One-Day Timeframe Post-Earnings) Price Action: The NASDAQ gapped up powerfully at the open, breaking cleanly above its previous consolidation range. This was a strong bullish signal. Volume: The rally was accompanied by massive volume, confirming broad institutional participation. This wasn't a low-volume grind; it was a conviction move. 3. Macro & Fundamental Backdrop Interest Rates: The market is currently pricing in a higher-for-longer stance from the Fed. However, recent economic data (PMIs, jobless claims) has shown slight signs of softening, which keeps hopes alive for a potential rate cut later in the year. A stable, non-accelerating rate environment is acceptable for tech stocks, especially those like Nvidia with explosive earnings growth that outweighs rate concerns. Geopolitics: While always a risk (U.S.-China tensions, elections), the market has largely shrugged off these concerns for now, choosing to focus on the stellar corporate fundamentals. Market Breadth: A key watch-out. The rally has been narrow, led primarily by the "Magnificent 7" (now perhaps the "Fab 1" - Nvidia). For the rally to be sustainable, we need to see broader participation from other sectors and smaller-cap stocks within the NASDAQ. 4. Likely Outcome for the Next 1-2 Weeks: Bullish with a Caveat Bullish Scenario (60% Probability): The momentum from Nvidia is likely to carry the NASDAQ higher in the very near term. We could see a continued "melt-up" towards 17,400-17,500 as underinvested funds are forced to chase performance and add equity exposure. Any dip will likely be shallow and bought aggressively, with the 17,000 level holding firm. Consolidation/Pullback Scenario (35% Probability): This is the most likely healthy outcome. After such a massive, emotion-driven surge, the market is likely to need a period of digestion. We could see the NASDAQ chop sideways for a week or two to work off the overbought conditions. This would reset the momentum indicators and allow the market to build a new base for the next leg higher. This is not a bearish signal; it is a strengthening signal. Bearish Reversal Scenario (5% Probability): A sharp reversal below the 17,000 support level and a fill of the earnings gap (~16,900) would be a significant warning. This would likely require a new, negative macro catalyst (e.g., unexpectedly hot inflation data, a major geopolitical escalation) that forcefully changes the interest rate narrative. Trading & Investment Implication For Bulls / Existing Longs: Hold positions. Consider taking partial profits on extreme strength, but avoid selling your entire position. The trend is your friend. Use any pullback to the 17,000 support as a potential buying opportunity. For New Entrants: Chasing the green spike is high-risk. Be patient. Wait for the inevitable pullback or period of consolidation to establish a position. The risk/reward is poor on the day after a massive gap up. For Bears: Fighting this tape is exceptionally dangerous. The fundamental news from NVDA is a game-changer for the index. Shorting based solely on overbought conditions is a quick path to losses. Final Analyst Call: The next week is likely bullish with high volatility, potentially extending gains. However, the following week is highly susceptible to a consolidation or pullback as the initial euphoria settles. The overall trajectory for the next two weeks is cautiously bullish, with the understanding that a 2-4% pullback is a normal and healthy part of a strong uptrend. The burden of proof is now on the bears to prove they can wrestle control back from a market that just received the best possible news from its most important constituent. Not financial advice, this is just my opinion.
FX:NAS100Long
by fxtraderanthony
The #1 Trading Skill: Controlling Your RiskThe secret to trading isn’t winning every trade - it’s about managing risk. Risk management and trading. This is one of the most important topics if you’re serious about becoming a profitable trader. Risk management is the foundation of trading. If you don’t manage your risk you won’t make it. Simple as that. No one can predict whether the market will go up or down with 100% certainty. That’s why as traders we can never fully control how much profit we make. But we can control one thing. How much we lose. And that brings us to the first step in risk management. Understanding the power of the risk-reward ratio. When choosing a trading strategy that suits you one of the factors to consider is its risk-reward ratio. Every strategy has its own balance between risk and potential reward and understanding this is key. This is where we need to put our math brains to work. What is the risk-reward ratio? Simply put it tells us how much we stand to gain for every unit of risk we take. It’s a straightforward but powerful metric that helps determine whether a strategy can be profitable over time. Let’s break it down with a simple example: • If your strategy has a 1:1 risk-reward ratio it means that for every $100 you risk you aim to make $100 in profit. Win or lose the potential gain and loss are the same. • If your strategy has a 1:2 risk-reward ratio you risk losing $100, but if the trade goes your way you make $200. This means your potential reward is twice as big as your risk. • If your strategy has a 1:5 risk-reward ratio for every $100 you risk you have the chance to make $500. Here the possible reward is much greater than the risk you take. Your risk-reward ratio has a big impact on your overall profitability. But the risk-reward ratio alone doesn’t tell the full story. To know if a strategy is truly profitable you also need to consider another key factor: Win rate. Your win rate is the percentage of trades that end in profit. This is where math and probabilities come into play. • If your strategy has a 50% win rate it means that out of 10 trades 5 are winners and 5 are losers. • If your win rate is 40% 4 out of 10 trades will be profitable. The key to long-term success is finding the right balance between risk-reward and win rate. • If you have a 1:1 risk-reward ratio and a 40% win rate your strategy won’t be profitable. Over 10 trades you win 4 times and lose 6 times. Since you win and lose the same amount per trade your losses will be bigger than your gains in the long run. • But with a 1:5 risk-reward ratio and the same 40% win rate your strategy becomes profitable. That’s because your winning trades make far more than you lose on your losing trades. The takeaway? There’s no such thing as a right or wrong strategy only ones that are profitable or unprofitable. The key is to find a strategy that gives you a mathematical edge over time.
FPMARKETS:US100Education
by Kathrine_Sofie
US100 Technical Analysis! SELL! My dear friends, My technical analysis for US100 is below: The market is trading on 23633 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 23440 About Used Indicators: A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by AnabelSignals
2
NAS100 - Potential outcome this week.Dear Friends in Trading, “I share only my perspective. In this industry, learning never ends, but progress comes when we learn from mistakes without repeating them.” - ANROC 1) Can trend hold? 2) I believe risk appetite is diminished due to unstable geopolitical tensions. Keynote: The potential for an IR cut this month is good - Is this good or bad for shares in Equities? 📈 Why a rate cut can be good for stocks: Cheaper borrowing → Companies can finance expansion, buybacks, or refinance debt at lower costs, boosting profitability. Encourages spending → Consumers borrow more cheaply (credit cards, mortgages, auto loans), which can lift company revenues. Asset reallocation → Lower yields on bonds make stocks look more attractive, so investors may shift capital into equities. Weaker dollar → Helps U.S. exporters because their goods become more competitive abroad. 📉 Why a rate cut can be bad for stocks: Signal of economic weakness → Often, the Fed cuts rates when growth is slowing or risks are rising (recession fears, financial stress). Stocks may fall if investors focus on the reason for the cut. Diminished confidence → If markets think the Fed is “behind the curve,” sentiment can worsen. Sector differences → Financial stocks (banks, insurers) may get hurt because their net interest margins shrink. I sincerely hope my point of view offers a valued insight. Thank you for taking the time study my analysis.
TRADENATION:USTECShort
by ANROC
1
QQQ Concentration RiskSince mid-2023, the gap has steadily widened - it doesn’t mean an immediate reversal, but it does mean QQQ is very top-heavy (the NDX/NDXE ratio tends to oscillate in bands; rather than, trend infinitely higher) Strong NDX vs weak NDXE suggests a fragile rally If mega-caps stumble, the whole index could pull back hard However, if breadth improves (NDXE starts outperforming), that would strengthen the rally base Current leadership concentration favors short-term bullish momentum (45%), but the rally is fragile, if mega-caps falter, the downside could open quickly (30%) 1. FAANG + NVDA/TSLA Leadership Persists Ratio keeps rising (NDX > NDXE) Leaders continue to attract flows (AI, cloud, semis). QQQ pushes to new highs with narrower breadth Rally vulnerable if just one or two leaders stumble (NVDA, AAPL, etc.) +5–10% upside near term if momentum holds 2. Pause & Rotation (25%) Ratio stalls near highs Equal-weight (NDXE) starts to catch up Breadth improves modestly, but QQQ as a whole chops sideways QQQ consolidates in a 5%–7% band 3. Breadth Divergence Resolves Lower (30%) Concentration risk unwinds Leaders mean-revert (profit-taking, earnings disappointments) NDX underperforms NDXE, ratio falls from highs QQQ could correct −10% or more The ratio at 2.88 is stretched relative to historical balance A “reasonable” medium-term range would be closer to 2.3–2.5 (15% to 25% on percentage scale) Implies QQQ pause/correction while NDXE holds steady or outperforms, or broadening participation (small/mid Nasdaq catching up)
NASDAQ:NDX
by pakoumal
NAS100 Bearish Reversal from Supply Zone – Short SetupThe NAS100 (1H chart) is trading within a channel structure marked by a rejection line (resistance) and a support line. Price recently broke below the EMA (70 & 200), showing bearish momentum. Supply Zone (POI): 23,524 – 23,637, where price may retest before further decline (potential short entry zone). Trend: Current momentum is bearish after rejection from channel resistance. Support/Target: Main downside target is 22,979 – 22,905, aligning with previous swing low and Fibonacci extension area. EMA Strategy: Price below both 70 & 200 EMA indicates bearish trend continuation. Structure Break: Breakdown of channel support suggests sellers are in control. 📌 Trading Plan: Entry (Sell Zone): 23,524 – 23,637 (POI Supply Zone) Stop Loss: Above 23,640 (channel resistance) Target: 22,979 – 22,905 Conclusion: Market is in bearish structure. Wait for pullback to supply zone for a high-probability short entry, targeting the lower support zone.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by MR_JOHN144