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Enjoy the ride if that comes to fruition, but don't mistake it for genuine demand.
If the MBA purchase index shows weakness tomorrow, then I expect
TLT to challenge its September highs.
After taking profits on
TLT ahead of the Fed announcement, I've reloaded today, and will add on weakness. I really struggle to think of a realistic scenario that would lead to higher long-term rates in the near future.
Since the Fed rate cut on the 17th just one week ago,
TLT has declined by over 1%. Continued curve steepening as time wears on is a strong possibility.
tradingview.com/x/JEXtgz1J
tradingview.com/x/JEXtgz1J

Load up ladies and gentlemen!
Rate cuts aren't going to help
TLT, especially if the Fed starts cutting before reaching their original 2% objective on inflation.