Treasury bond TLT has been trading lower since the start of 2024, but after an impulsive rally at the end of 2023, we believe it's just making and finishing a deep A-B-C corrective decline. It's actually now coming into key strong support zone at 61,8% - 78,6% Fibo. retracement and channel support line, from where we should be aware of bounce, recovery and...
Alot of chatter about bonds breaking upward. But I'm thinking there may a short term bounce on the tlt - Looking at May 10 $89 - $89.5 - $90 Calls Lotto contrarian play - Ill see what they do in the morning
NASDAQ:TLT runs inverse to the 10YTreassury note. The gap just below $85 should be filled when the 10Y goes back to 4.9%. When the gap closes and yields come back down, NASDAQ:TLT will be the place to park your money... NFA.
NASDAQ:TLT seems to be setting up for one last move higher. I think we're likely to see a bottom of the short term move between around here at $92. Then I think post fed meeting, we'll get a move in TLT up to the $98 resistance, that's where you'd want to be a seller of TLT or buy puts. After that, I think largely the remainder of this year will be bearish...
TLT to $86 and 20 year yield to 5.2% by 5/3/24? I think the current break out by long bonds into the 5%'s has enough momentum to take the 20 year to 5.2% and TLT to $86. Bought into TMV on 4/24/24 and will hold until we reverse. The PCE report on 4/26/24 will confirm this move or invalidate it.
... for a .98 credit. Comments: Adding to my TLT position on weakness here, targeting the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. I already have rungs on in April/May/June, so am adding a smidge out in July. With QQQ and SPY knocking on ATH's, holding off on my usual broad market plays to await weakness and/or higher IV.
... for a 1.09 credit. Comments: Looked at all my options here for the rolling of the short call aspect of my covered calls -- rolling down, rolling down and out, rolling out as is, rolling to shorter duration and down ... . Going with rolling down in the same expiry for a 1.09 credit. Resulting cost basis: 89.11. It still remains a bet that the Fed will cut...
Inflation ratios for spotting fed rate trend part 7
Watching this red box area as highlighted on chart, if TLT starts to trade above this area again this sets up a beautiful failed breakdown setup for a move into 94, 100 and then 105-114. Need to clear 90 for the pattern to trigger/activate and then we go from there.
TLT is back on level which took the liquidity on left side and impulsed a massive bullish movement, there is and identified breaker block before the liquidity was taken and also a fair value gap in yellow.
Good R/R for a long down here, especially with a potential for a weekly hammer to set up a higher low from the 2023 bottom. Especially with a seeming "risk off" in the markets could be an attractive place to look for returns. Been bleeding for a long time... plus take a look at the volume since the bottom.. highest volume since inception at the bottom of the chart
We have a nice convergence on week chart. Normally, bonds start rise half year before recession, so I expect in next 2-4 weeks it will start rising. 1 target - 115$ 2 target - 121$ 3 target - 135$ But it`s long term investing - 180-360days, so better to wait when it will start rise.
This could be forming a H&S bottom. Zero talk about it. Could reflation move be peaking? Are we in a recession or soon to be?
Don't forget that another man's trash, is another man's treasure. Volume speaks volumes, pun intended. You know what to do...
Nassim Taleb's: “My lesson from Soros is to start every meeting at my boutique by convincing everyone that we are a bunch of idiots who know nothing and are mistake-prone, but happen to be endowed with the rare privilege of knowing it.” He also said: "The only economic research that seems to replicate out-of-sample is the work of Daniel Kahneman on behavioral...
... for a .28 credit. Comments: Rolling out the short call aspect of my covered calls (See Post Below) a month for a small credit. Cost basis/break even in the setup is now 90.20. The small consolation prize is that this keeps my break even right around with the underlying is currently trading.
Comments: Getting in at strikes better than what I currently have on in July and August. July 19th 83: Filled for an .85 credit August 16th 83: Filled for a 1.11 credit I'm fine with potentially getting assigned with shares at 83, since they're way below the cost basis of the covered calls I currently have on. I knew this might end up being a very, very long...
For TLT, I just wanted to share my own ideas, which are not investment advice, about the interaction of recent geopolitical events and expectations, as a note to history. In the pre-trading hours, I expect 88.3 with the opening and maybe 86.9 with reaction sales. Since I foresee a movement around 1.045 in terms of Euro / Dollar parity, I suspect that there will...