BRIEFING Week #38 : Waiting for Something to Happen !Here's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
Kindly,
Phil
BTCETH.P trade ideas
ANFIBO | BTCUSD [update]Hello guys! It's me, Anfibo.
Here is my New Updated Strategy of BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
I agree with the view that BITSTAMP:BTCUSD is currently in a compression phase. The market seems to be waiting for a catalyst (potentially economic data or macro news) to break out of this consolidation zone.
>>> Key observations:
Trading volume has shown signs of decline over the past few sessions, reflecting investor sentiment of waiting on the sidelines rather than taking strong action.
Funding rates and overall market sentiment remain positive but not overly euphoric, which is a healthy signal supporting the case for a sustainable upward move.
On the Daily timeframe, the primary trend remains bullish, and the current sideways movement appears to be a technical correction within the broader uptrend.
>>> Strategic approach for today:
> For short-term traders: consider accumulating small positions around the support levels of 115,200 – 114,400, with stop-loss orders set below 114,000 to manage downside risk.
> For medium-term investors: it is more prudent to wait for a confirmed breakout above the 117,000 – 118,000 resistance zone before scaling into larger positions, targeting the 120,000 – 123,000 levels.
Have a beautiful weekend! :)
Crypto Market Weekly Review: Trend Structures and Key ExpectatioOverall trends continue to develop within the macro structures outlined in previous weekly reviews. Some assets (BNB, SOL, HYPE) are already in new uptrends, while others are only starting to form the first impulsive moves within broader bullish structures.
In the coming days, I expect local downside pressure to complete the ongoing September corrections, followed by a continuation of the uptrend toward target resistance zones. Another wave of Autumn consolidation is likely to follow afterward.
From a macro perspective, as long as prices hold above their key support zones, I continue to view the September lows as important macro higher-lows. Below these levels, most coins (possibly with the exception of ETH) are unlikely to fall and should instead continue forming higher lows ahead of a more sustainable rally into Q4.
⸻
BINANCE:BNBUSDT
Chart:
Support: 1000–930
Resistance: 1135–1150
⸻
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Chart:
Support: 115–113.3K
Resistance: 120–122K
⸻
BINANCE:XRPUSDT
Chart:
Support: 2.97–2.91 / 2.85
Resistance: 3.30–3.40
⸻
BINANCE:ETHUSDT
Chart:
Support: 3380
Resistance: 5060–5235
⸻
BINANCE:SOLUSDT
Chart:
Support: 230–223
Resistance: 285–310
⸻
$HYPEHUSDT
Chart:
Support: 52.5–51
Resistance: 67–73
Feel free to comment which coins and assets you’re most interested in, and I’ll prepare a separate review on them.
Thank you for your attention, and wishing you a successful week ahead!
BTC WARNING: Is the $150K Peak Just a Bull Trap Before a Major WThe current price structure of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) on the weekly chart clearly shows the formation of a long-term Rising Wedge. This pattern, occurring after an extensive rally, is classically interpreted as a strong Bearish Reversal signal. The primary forecast suggests an initial, final thrust to test the upper boundary of the wedge (the red arc), potentially culminating in a bull trap or short-lived peak in the $150,000 to $160,000 range. Following this exhaustion, the dominant scenario involves a decisive breakdown below the lower support trendline, triggering a significant and prolonged corrective phase with a bearish target likely set around $78,000 or lower. This analysis signals the anticipated end of the current bull cycle and the commencement of a new accumulation phase over the longer term.
the market trinity ( power of 3 )The Hidden Phases of Smart Money: Accumulation, Manipulation, and Distribution
Markets don’t move randomly, they move in cycles. Behind the price action, smart money (institutions, market makers, and big players) follow a playbook designed to take liquidity from retail traders. If you learn to spot these phases, you can stop trading against smart money and start aligning with it.
The three key stages are: Accumulation, Manipulation, and Distribution.
🔹 1. The Accumulation Phase
The Accumulation Phase is where smart money builds positions quietly. Price consolidates in a range, creating the illusion of indecision. To the untrained eye, this looks like “choppy sideways action,” but it’s a setup.
What happens here?
Price ranges sideways.
Stop-losses build up below range lows (for bullish traders) and above range highs (for bearish traders).
Liquidity pools form on both sides of the consolidation.
Think of this phase as the “loading zone.” Institutions want to accumulate without driving price too high too quickly. The range traps traders into thinking the market is stagnant, while in reality, it’s building energy for the next move.
🔹 2. The Manipulation Phase
Once enough orders are sitting around the range, smart money springs the trap.
A false breakout occurs:
If price breaks below the range → it triggers stop-losses of longs and tempts new shorts to enter.
If price breaks above the range → it traps shorts and invites fresh longs to jump in.
This is where retail traders get shaken out. The breakout looks convincing, but it’s engineered to harvest liquidity.
Why does this happen?
Markets need liquidity to move. By manipulating price beyond obvious levels, smart money collects the orders they need to fuel the real move.
🔹 3. The Distribution Phase
After manipulation, the real direction of the market becomes clear. Smart money now drives price in the intended direction, often opposite to what retail traders expect.
If the manipulation was a false downside break, the distribution phase will be a strong bullish rally.
If the manipulation was a false upside break, distribution unfolds as a bearish decline.
This is where the largest and cleanest moves happen. Retail traders who fell for the trap are either stopped out or forced to chase the market at worse prices, fueling the move further.
🎯 Why Understanding These Phases Matters
Most traders lose because they trade the manipulation, not the distribution. They see a breakout and jump in exactly when smart money is unloading positions.
If you want to flip the script:
Identify Accumulation: Watch for tight ranges where liquidity builds.
Anticipate Manipulation: Don’t get baited by the first breakout.
Ride Distribution: Once the trap is set and reversed, that’s your chance to align with the smart money move.
Nerdy Thoughts
Trading isn’t just about indicators or chart patterns, it’s about psychology and liquidity. The Accumulation → Manipulation → Distribution cycle reveals the hidden structure behind price action.
Next time you see a range, don’t just ask, “Which way will it break?” Instead, think, “Where is smart money likely to trap the crowd before the real move begins?”
That shift in perspective could be the difference between trading against the tide and riding with it.
💡 Nerd Note: If you start spotting these cycles on multiple timeframes, you’ll notice how fractal the market really is, the same phases repeat inside bigger phases. The market is a story of traps within traps, and your job as a trader is to read the script, not fall for it.
put together by : Pako Phutietsile as @currencynerd
Halving Seasonality Index Fires on BTC.One of the two seasonality indicators included in the BTI have fired off...the Halving Seasonality Index (HSI). The HSI mindlessly triggers 538 days after the Bitcoin halving. I personally believe we are not near a top (in terms of time) and would take the indicator trigger with a grain of salt. But it has worked in the past to just sell when this triggers.
BTCUSD | Weekly FVG Rejection – Bearish Outlook Targeting SSLHello Billionaires!!
We All know that Bitcoin has tapped into a weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG) after sweeping Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) and reacting from the Order Block (OB). Current price action shows rejection, suggesting bearish continuation.
🔹 Key Points:
BSL swept, confirming liquidity grab.
Price rejected from FVG + OB zone.
Short-term structure break hints at downside momentum.
Targeting Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) and the weekly FVG demand zone around 90,000 – 92,000.
Outlook remains bearish unless price reclaims and sustains above the FVG rejection zone.
BTCUSD support retest at 108,590The BTCUSD remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective sideways consolidation within the broader uptrend.
Support Zone: 108,590 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level.
A bullish rebound from 108,590 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at:
112,340 – initial resistance
113,760 – psychological and structural level
114,730 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break and daily close below 108,590 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward:
108,000 – minor support
107,360 – stronger support and potential demand zone
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact while the BTCUSD holds above 108,590. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
bitcoin one more push up on the tableBitcoin- looks like we might have another long entry on the table, which I will take . On the other hand, I will hold my shorts until we reach bear market lows or I'm stopped out. I will take a long position as a hedge to my short, just in case it wants to try and go for new highs. Entry 107247 as soon as we take the lows and try and get back above that level, otherwise we just crash and never get back above the level- which I prefer
Bitcoin Top DilemmaHistorical Context:
Previously, my prediction for bitcoin bottom based on the MACRO indicator played out as expected here:
The MACRO indicator has been back tested and has consistently predicted S&B bottoms and it's rallies as you can see here:
In simple terms, when MACRO indicator flashes bull signal (Vertical Blue line), it has historically created the bull markets.
Signals:
Vertical - Blue lines: S&P/MACRO indicator bottom
Vertical - Red dotted lines: 80 weeks after halving
Vertical - Green dotted lines: 40 weeks after halving
Dilemma:
In no point in bitcoin's history, the MACRO indicator has flashed a bull signal (Vertical Blue line) at the end of a bitcoin halving cycle.
The question then is - will you rely on the MACRO indicator or the bitcoin halving cycle? To make it even simpler, would you trust the assets like bitcoin correlate to liquidity (MACRO indicator) or the time (4 year halving)?
If we believe in the 4 year Bitcoin's halving cycle, we should expect this cycle's end by Nov 3, 2025 (Vertical - Red dotted line) or sooner.
If we believe in the 4 year Bitcoin's halving cycle, but now lean towards the MACRO indicator (i.e., liquidity), we will have to say the most hated verse 'This time is different'.
If we don't believe in the 4 year Bitcoin's halving cycle (i.e., time), and say the 4 year bitcoin cycle has been nothing but a coincidence to the MACRO indicator (i.e., liquidity) all along, we trust liquidity over halving cycles.
Time will tell, but I lean towards the liquidity (i., MACRO indicator) even though it feels like bitcoin is almost about to top this cycle.
Which one do you lean on?
BITCOIN Drop back towards 100k or rise to $130k? What's next?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is at critical crossroads as it is pulling back today towards its 1W MA20 (red trend-line). We've discussed before of the importance of this level as a technical Support that has fueled the final BTC rallies during past Cycles. As this held on August 25 and closed the candle above it, we expected that to be this confirmation.
Today's decline however jeopardizes this model, in fact the Parabola pattern of the current (2023-2025) Bull Cycle, has always been tested when Bitcoin closed below its 1W MA20. As you can see it has always declined and touched its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) to form a Support and start the next Bullish Leg.
The 1W MA50 is currently just below the $100k level so an aggressive drop below the 1W MA20 (candle closing) can take us around that area in a matter of 2-3 weeks. If however the 1W MA20 holds, it is more likely to see a rise to $130000 at least. And that is what the Sine Waves Tops imply (red Rectangle peak formation, with a 1W MA50 test more likely to occur in late January 2026.
So what do you think? Is $100k or $130k next for Bitcoin? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
BTCUSD: Downtrend remains dominant after EMA rejection(1h chart)Yesterday, the price followed the bearish scenario as it was rejected at the EMA and resistance zone.
Trend: The short-term downtrend remains intact, with the EMA sloping downward.
Nearest support: 111,800 – 112,000. A break below could extend the move toward 110,000 – 109,000.
Nearest resistance: 113,500 – 113,800. A breakout here would invalidate the bearish outlook
.
📌 Outlook for today : Bearish continuation is the primary scenario. Wait for a candle close below support for confirmation. Alternatively, if price breaks strongly above the EMA Ribbon, a short-term corrective rally may develop.
Please like and comment below to support our traders. Your reactions will motivate us to do more analysis in the future 🙏✨
BTC Hopium based on 2024 PAThe time frame was much larger in 2024, but we had a big impulse move met by hard resistance at ATH, followed by another failed attempt or very weak ATH. Then we had a move down to around the 20 week, had a very weak bounce, went back to the 20 week then proceeded up in the november pump. This seems to be similar to current PA if bulls can hold the line here.
BTCUSD Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 DIP has begun!I see strong confirmations to back up a massive dip to 95 - 80k. Currently price is only pulling back to retest that bearish continuation pattern and head and shoulders.
I will send updates on LTFs on this trade idea as price continues to move to the downside.
BTCUSD – Dealing with Surprise Pockets of VolatilityCryptocurrency markets can be susceptible to large swings in sentiment that can arrive out of nowhere and lead to outsized moves with potentially little rational behind why they have happened. These moves may be due to large one-off flows, reaction to news events, or just the liquidation of excessive positioning when a move may have run its course in the short term.
It seems that yesterday’s drop could have been one of those days. BTCUSD opened Monday around 115500, right in the middle of its recent 110-118k trading range of the last 3 weeks. Then, at the start of trading in Europe the price dropped quickly to touch a low of 111533 before rebounding. This type of surprise move can catch traders unaware or worse can evoke an emotional response that can lead to making a rash decision regarding the execution of a new or existing position.
To help protect against this type of reaction, from a risk management perspective it can be helpful to assess the charts at the start of each day to get a feel for market sentiment and positioning, as well as to try and identify some relevant support and resistance levels to monitor, alongside the current BTCUSD trend on the particular timeframe that you are trading.
In the technical assessment below, we provide examples of this type of approach that you could adapt to fit your own style.
While, BTCUSD prices have edged back higher again this morning, this pre-trading routine can become a quick and useful way to assess cryptocurrency markets.
Technical Update: Assessing the Technical Backdrop
Monday’s sharp decline might well have caught many traders off guard, prompting emotional reactions and potentially rash decisions. As experience shows, emotion-driven trades often lead to poor timing - buying near session highs or selling near market lows.
While sharp price moves are unpredictable, preparing ahead of the trading day or week may help manage the emotional challenges that come with trading.
Forearmed is Forewarned
Before starting your trading day, build a routine that includes reviewing charts across multiple timeframes, such as 15 minute, 1 hour, 4 hour, daily or even weekly, for the assets you plan to trade. This broader perspective might help you spot key trends and make more informed decisions.
This doesn’t need to be a deep analysis, just note the trend direction across different timeframes to get a clearer picture before trading.
For a quick trend check, you can consider using the Bollinger Band mid-average (typically the 20-period moving average). If it’s rising, the asset is likely to be in an uptrend; if its falling, a downtrend; and if flat, it suggests a sideways range.
When analysing multiple timeframes, keep in mind that longer-term trends may carry more weight. For example, a trend on a 1 day chart is perhaps more significant than one on a 5 minute chart. Short-term trends can reverse quickly, while longer-term moves tend to be more stable and influential.
Consider using your trend assessment to shape your trading bias for the session. You may find it’s more effective to trade with the dominant trend rather than against it, at least until there's clear evidence of a price reversal.
Be Aware of Support and Resistance Levels
In addition to identifying the current trend direction, it's important to pinpoint key support and resistance levels for the session. These levels can help guide entry and exit decisions, highlight potential turning points, and provide structure to your trading plan.
Keep these levels close to you throughout the day. Perhaps identify one key support and one resistance level, if either is breached, it may signal your initial assessment was incorrect and a trend reversal is underway.
Support is often marked by prior lows or areas where buyers previously halted a price decline and helped restore the prevailing uptrend. Consider placing sell stop losses below a support level you have identified.
Resistance is typically identified by prior highs or areas where sellers previously capped a rally and reinforced the prevailing downtrend. Think about placing buy stop losses above a resistance level you have outlined.
A rising Bollinger mid-average also often serves as support, while a falling mid-average can signal resistance.
Fibonacci retracement levels - 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% - can also highlight potential support levels during pullbacks in an uptrend or resistance levels during recoveries in a downtrend. These may also be useful additions to be included in your pre-trading routine.
The chart above highlights examples of possible support and resistance levels for Bitcoin within the daily timeframe.
Let’s now look at what might be the current daily trends and support/resistance levels for Bitcoin for the daily perspective
Potential Daily Trend:
Monday’s sharp sell-off did see a break below what at the time was potential support, marked by the Bollinger mid-average, and price action staying below the average may suggest risks of a downtrend.
However, as shown in the above chart, the daily Bollinger mid-average is currently flat, indicating Bitcoin may be in a daily sideways range. A downturn might suggest a developing downtrend, while an upward shift in the average could signal a renewed uptrend.
Potential Daily Support and Resistance Levels:
The Bollinger mid-average currently at 114057 may suggest an initial daily resistance. A break above this level might lead to further strength, with the September 20th high at 116205 and the September 18th peak at 117989 as potential next resistance levels.
The recent low at 111533 may now be considered as an initial daily support level. A close below here could shift the focus to the September 4th low at 109325 as the next support to monitor.
You can of course refine these levels by analysing shorter timeframes to match your trading style and perhaps spot near-term opportunities.
However, by understanding key trends and support/resistance zones across various timeframes before the trading day begins, you may well find you are better equipped to deal with unexpected price swings with more balance and less emotion.
The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
Bearish drop off?The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support that lines up with the 100% Fibonacci projection.
Pivot: 111,257.18
1st Support: 107,260.23
1st Resistance: 113,469.79
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.