Potential bearish drop off?The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is reacting off the pivot, which is a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support, which is a pullback suport.
Pivot: 117,517.82
1st Support: 106,827.77
1st Resistance: 125,464.41
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Trade ideas
Planetary lines of BTC - no sign of reversalThe planetary lines of the Mars/Pluto synodic cycles—the most influential in BTC's natal chart—show no sign of reversal. The rejection is more strong than the slow move towards the liquidity of 107, which was taken.
I would wait until around November 19-20-21 for more confirmation of whether there will be a reversal of the downtrend, even if there is a short bounce due to the CME gap.
At this stage, I am monitoring the areas around 101 and the area above 99500.
Bitcoin Reverses off Previous Support Turned ResistanceBitcoin’s recent decline has brought price action back toward the crucial $100,000 psychological and horizontal support zone, an area that has held firm multiple times since May. The daily chart shows that price briefly dipped below this level but quickly recovered, forming a potential short-term base.
The 50-day SMA (blue) has turned lower and now sits above current price, suggesting weakening medium-term momentum, while the 200-day SMA (red) continues to act as dynamic support near $103,900. A sustained close below the latter could shift the broader structure toward a more prolonged consolidation phase.
From a momentum standpoint, the MACD remains below the signal line and in negative territory, reflecting persistent bearish pressure, although histogram bars are showing early signs of contraction. The RSI is currently near 38, hovering just above oversold conditions, indicating that sellers may be losing strength in the short term.
Overall, Bitcoin remains in a neutral-to-bearish phase, trading between $100,000 support and $107,300 resistance. A decisive breakout beyond either boundary could define the next directional move.
-MW
BTC/USD 1D Chart🧭 Overall Market Picture
Bitcoin is in a medium-term downtrend, as confirmed by:
a descending channel (marked with white lines),
lower highs and lower lows,
price below the key EMA and SMA.
The price is currently testing the upper boundary of this channel, so it will be crucial whether it manages to break out of it to the upside or rebounds further down.
🔹 Key Price Levels
Support:
$100,650 — short-term support, previously seen price reactions.
$98,550 — next demand level from late October.
$96,950 — lower boundary of the descending channel, potential target for continued declines.
Resistance:
$106,300–$106,500 — current resistance (upper boundary of the channel + SMA100).
$109,700–$110,000 — strong resistance converging with the EMA200 and SMA200.
$112,000+ — channel breakout and trend change.
🔸 Technical Indicators
1. MACD
The histogram is starting to turn positive (descending red).
The MACD line is attempting to cross the signal from below — a potential bullish signal, but not yet confirmed.
➡️ Indicates a possible short-term upward correction within a downtrend.
2. RSI (14)
Value: ~40.5 — low, but has rebounded from oversold levels.
No bullish divergence, but the RSI is rising from below, suggesting a potential technical bounce.
➡️ Still more upside than downside before entering the overbought zone.
🔹 Moving Averages
EMA50 (~109,970 USD) and EMA200 (~110,380 USD) are above the price, confirming the downtrend.
The EMA50 < EMA200 cross holds – a classic death cross.
SMA100 (~106,300 USD) has just been tested – a key level that could determine the direction of the coming days.
🔸 Short-Term Scenarios
🟩 Bullish (30–40% chance)
Breakthrough of the upper channel line (~106.5k USD) + daily close above 107k USD.
Confirmation of the MACD and RSI signal > 50.
Targets: 109,700 → 111,500 → 113,800 USD.
➡️ A medium-term trend reversal is then possible.
🟥 Bearish (60–70% chance)
Bounce from the upper channel line and fall below 102k–101k.
Continuation of the downtrend.
Targets: 100,600 → 98,500 → 96,900 USD.
➡️ In this scenario, the market will maintain a lower high/lower low structure.
⚙️ Summary
Trend: Down, but with a short-term rebound attempt.
Key moment: reaction to the 106k–107k USD level.
If the channel with volume breaks, a bullish reversal.
If a rebound, a new low around 97k–99k USD is very possible.
$BTCUSD: targets for pullbackBITSTAMP:BTCUSD : looks like the up wave completed and reached the target of $107K mentioned in an earlier post, although it didn't touch the trendline.
It appears to me that this pullback is Wave 5 -- the very last leg of this correction. Wave 3 usually exceed Wave 3 (i.e., making a new local low), however, Wave 5 can truncate (i.e., not making a new local low).
If the correction completed at the prior low of $98.9K, then the pullback is Wave 2 of a new uptrend. Then it is likely to end between 50% retracement and 61.8% retracement. If this is Wave 5 to complete the entire correction, then it should go to at least 78.6% retracement (if truncated) and possibly touch the green trendline (if not truncated).
My trading plan: I sold some IBIT shares during the overnight market. However, most of my IBIT are held in accounts that don't have overnight access so I'm still holding the majority of my shares. My plan is to hold through this pullback because if this is Wave 2, it should resume the uptrend pretty soon.
#Bitcoin in Buy mode in this support level 12NOV25 _#buy@low #sell@high Simple trading strategy support & resistance
The past few days, I have been posting that #BTC is at a good support level to enter the market. If you go back to my past posts and videos, you can see the support level I am more interested in entering the market at.
#BTC #forex #supportortandresistance #tradinging #swingtradingstrategies #buy #sellll #EURUSD #goldd #niftyy #s&p #etf #qqq #iwm #future #options #longterm
#btc #forex #etf #option #money #earning #dollars #bitcoin,#btc,#spy,#forex,#bitcoin,#supportlevel,#RESISTANCELEVEL,#TESLA,#S&P500,#NVDIA,#APPLE,#AMAZON,#NIFTY,#META,#RSI,#STOCKMARKET,#SHAREMARKET,#GOLD,#OIL,#SILVER,#INTRADAY,#SWINGTRADE,#LONGTERM,#INVESTMENT,#SELL,#BUY,#BID,#ASK,#MARKET,#INVESTORS,#IWM,#OPTION,#FUTURES,#US,#ALIBABA,#CASH,#CASHFLOW
$BTC bounce before further selloffAs you can see from the chart, BTC formed a falling wedge and looks set to breakout to the upside from it.
I've marked off areas of resistance, but I think if we do get a breakout, the areas you'll want to take profit are $117k and $121-122k as the most likely areas for price to reject.
I think at those levels, you'll want to derisk or set stop losses, because I think it's likely that we can fall a lot further.
The trigger to go short would be losing the diagonal trend line that goes all the way back to October 2023 when the start of the bullish move happened. A move below that trend line should indicate the bullish move is finished and I think that we could potentially move down to the $60k-72k support levels.
I've marked off a lower resistance at $30k, just incase we see an extreme move in the worst case scenario.
Let's see how it pans out over the coming months.
Backtesting on TradingViewBased on the massive feedback from our previous article about backtesting we decided to make a follow up on how to backtest your strategy.
Every trader talks about strategy.
Few actually test it.
Backtesting is where ideas meet data — and TradingView makes it surprisingly simple.
Whether you code your own system or use built-in tools, backtesting shows you how your logic performs before you risk a single dollar.
1. Open the Strategy Tester
Start by opening the chart of the asset you want to test.
Click “Strategy Tester” at the bottom of the screen.
This activates TradingView’s built-in engine that simulates your system’s historical trades automatically.
You’ll see three tabs appear:
Overview: a summary of your results.
Performance Summary: key stats like profit, drawdown, and win rate.
List of Trades: every single historical trade your strategy executed.
2. Load or Create a Strategy
Go to the Indicators & Strategies tab.
TradingView separates indicators from strategies — only strategies can trigger trades for backtesting!
You have two options:
Use a built-in or public strategy: like “MACD Strategy” or “Moving Average Crossover.”
Paste your own Pine Script strategy: under “Pine Editor,” then click “Add to Chart.”
Once applied, TradingView automatically calculates historical trades based on your logic.
Tip: Indicators are for signals, strategies are for testing execution.
3. Adjust the Test Parameters
To make your test realistic, click the ⚙️ icon next to your strategy name.
In the Properties tab, you can define:
Initial capital (e.g. $10,000)
Position size (fixed or percent-based)
Commission and slippage
Pyramiding (how many positions can stack)
Then set your date range in the Strategy Tester — for example, test from 01-01-2022 to 01-01-2024.
The goal is to simulate what your system would have done under real conditions.
4. Analyze the Results
Once the test runs, TradingView gives you a detailed breakdown:
Net Profit (%) — your total gain or loss.
Max Drawdown — your biggest loss from peak to trough.
Win Rate & Profit Factor — how often you win and how much you win versus lose.
Average Trade — the mean result per trade.
Equity Curve — how your balance evolved over time.
Scroll through the List of Trades to see how each entry and exit behaved.
If you spot clusters of losses, note the pattern — that’s where improvements start.
This is the part where you analyze and think why did a trade fail and how can I avoid it.
TradingView also enables you to export data in excel so its super easy to analyze and look for improvement.
5. Refine and Forward-Test
Once you’ve seen how your system performs historically, make small adjustments.
Change one parameter at a time — like EMA length, RSI threshold, or stop-loss distance — and rerun the test.
When you find consistent results across timeframes or markets, move to paper trading mode.
Forward-testing confirms your backtest logic under real conditions, including live volatility and execution timing.
If your live and backtested results align closely, you’ve built something solid and you are ready to make money.
A big tip here, even a small thing such as a change in stop loss or timeframe change from 15 minutes to 14 minutes can make a huge difference so try out different conditions.
Bitcoin Cooked if RSI makes a lower LowGood Days Folks,
Over the past weeks Bitcoin has been ranging from 100K-116K, however if we lose this range we can confirm the bearish pattern on the RSI something that mark the 2021 top.
I strongly suggest everyone take a rest from trading and wait to see what happen here but this is not financial advise just what I am doing now.
Bitcoin Short: Staying in Primary count (down)As I discussed in my previous video, there are 2 ways to count the EW for Bitcoin: 1 long and 1 short. I also mentioned that my bias is to the short side which is why Bitcoin short is the primary count while the long is the alternate count.
Over in this idea, I am updating the counts based on the short primary counts. The stop loss for this idea will be above sub-wave 2, or above $107,800. The Take Profit Target will be cycle wave 4 low, or around $74,400.
Good luck!
Sell Setup – BTC/USD (1D)Sell Setup – BTC/USD (1D)
Price is currently retracing upward after forming a lower high. The plan anticipates a potential sweep of short-term liquidity resting above the recent high (marked X) before a continuation lower.
Premium Zone (Red Area): Expected area where price could deliver into before bearish continuation.
Monthly FVG (Blue Zone): Acts as an intermediate draw on liquidity and potential first target area.
2025 Open Price: Serves as a key magnet level, aligning with the draw on liquidity below.
Liquidity Pool (Orange Zone): Final downside objective, where price may rebalance and collect long-term liquidity.
Narrative:
After the short-term retracement into the premium zone, watch for signs of rejection (e.g., bearish FVG formation or a break of structure). Once confirmed, anticipate a continuation toward the monthly imbalance and below the yearly open price.
BTC = hourly chartPrice has left the Daily box in red and is now in weekly box territory in grey.
Trend reversed and price is accumulation on lower timeframes. I added some hourly levels and a 15min level. I also extended some old but, irrelevant levels so if and when they become relevant, the level is there to see in the replay better.
T.A explained -
BackSide (BS)
FrontSide (FS)
Inverse BS (Inv.BS)
Inverse FS (Inv.FS)
BS & FS levels are expected support when dashed lines, tested when dotted and resistance when solid lines.
The inverse is true for the Inv. BS Inv. FS levels, they are resistance as dashed lines, tested as dotted and support as solid lines.
Monthly timeframe is color pink
weekly grey
daily is red
4hr is orange
1hr is yellow
15min is blue
5min is green if they are shown.
strength favors the higher timeframe.
2x dotted levels are origin levels where trends have or will originate. When trends break, price will target the origin of the trend. its math, when the trend breaks, the vertex breaks too so the higher timeframe level/trend that breaks, the more volatility there could be as strength in the orders flow in to fuel the move.
yesterday
Trade closed manually
price followed the candle science and timeframes from the 5min green levels to the weekly grey level. Price has left behind some inverse frontside and inverse backside candles which look to be forming the bridge to flip the script if price manages to gain those levels and start accumulation. That liquidity will "unlock" and fuel price action.
BITCOIN WYCKOFF accumulationscenariocast!
IF that is what is occuring ... the #BTC price over the next few months could follow something similar to what I have drawn in a #Wyckoff re-accumulation range and breakout.
With the recent price action being a false breakdown before recapturing the range and proceeding to reach previous levels of resistance.
Let's see if this occurs, sentiment reached rock bottom last week.
SO I would not be surprised!
Bitcoin #BTC The key level to launch the Bull market...is $34500
The 50% drawdown level from the previous cycle laugh
let see if it can repeat the 3rd time
We assume this is going to happen leading up and post #halvening
But open to a quickening of this timeline because #ETF news driving the hype even quicker
Long Strategy GuideReconstruction of the macro monetary environment provides support
The US dollar index has dropped below the 100 mark. The US debt/GDP ratio exceeding 130% has weakened the creditworthiness of the US dollar, providing valuation support for risky assets. Although expectations for the Fed's rate cut in December have fluctuated, the trend of implicit liquidity easing has not changed, reducing the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin. At the same time, the global central bank gold-buying trend highlights the need for hedging, and the high correlation of Bitcoin with the Nasdaq index of 0.8 will benefit from the return of funds from the technology sector simultaneously.
Bitcoin trading strategy
buy:105000-105500
tp:106500-107500
sl:104000
Bitcoin Rebounds — channel breakout signals!Have a good day, Traders! It's Leo. Let's look at the current BTCUSDT chart
Valid Support Zone: 98,000 – 102,000 — Price has formed a clear double-bottom structure here.
Breakout confirmation: Price has broken above the descending channel and both EMA20/50.
Next resistance / target: 115,000 — previous supply area aligning with major liquidity.
→ Short-term structure favors a bullish continuation as long as support holds.
Despite short-term volatility, Bitcoin remains supported by improving risk sentiment as U.S. yields retreat and Fed officials hint at a potential policy pause.
Scenario: A successful retest of the breakout zone could trigger momentum toward the 115K resistance. Holding above 102K keeps the bullish structure intact.
Bulls seem to be regaining control — will this momentum extend toward 115K? What’s your outlook for BTC this week?
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) – 4H Bias OverviewCurrent price: around 104,657
Trend context: recent recovery after a downward move
Sell Zones
Sell Zone HTF (107,500–110,000): This area acts as near-term resistance. Price could face selling pressure here and may offer short entry opportunities if rejection candles appear.
A+ Level (122,500–125,000): This is a major resistance or higher-timeframe supply zone. It is a likely target for extended rallies but also a strong area for swing short setups if upward momentum weakens.
Support and Reaction Levels
Short-term support is around 98,700–100,000, which aligns with the recent low. The price is currently bouncing upward, potentially moving to retest the first sell zone.
Bias Summary
Short-term bias: bullish retracement as price moves up toward the sell zone.
Medium-term bias: bearish to neutral, watching for rejection near 107,500–110,000.
Confirmation: a clear rejection or bearish structure near the first sell zone could indicate continuation of the broader downtrend.
BTC and Macro Environment · Optimism Creeps Back InThe macro environment is warming up again. Traders are slowly adding risk as Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD holds above $100K and Ethereum COINBASE:ETHUSD shows rising retail activity. Altcoins are regaining liquidity, and sentiment feels like cautious optimism.
What’s driving this shift? Money.
Talk of new stimulus checks and potential rate cuts are fueling bullish expectations. The idea is simple: more liquidity means stronger risk appetite. But this comes with a catch. Fiscal math doesn’t add up cleanly. With tariffs bringing in $224.7B and proposed stimulus near $400B, inflation fears could return fast if spending isn’t balanced.
The U.S. government’s reopening adds another layer. Once the Treasury starts releasing the $1 trillion parked in its account, liquidity will flow again into agencies and contractors. This real injection supports a bullish tone across markets, including crypto.
On the chart above, Bitcoin’s 50-week simple moving average (50W SMA) is the key signal. BTC closing above it suggests the long-term uptrend remains intact. Historically, this level marks early bullish phases, not tops. If it holds, traders may stay long but cautious, watching for shifts in Fed tone or inflation data.
Overall, the crypto market is showing signs of recovery. Liquidity is improving, technicals look stable, and optimism is back, but not overheated. It’s not 2021 euphoria, just steady confidence built on real macro shifts.
Stay focused, manage risk, and don’t rush. The setup looks bullish for now, but caution still pays.
TheCryptoFire
ETHUSD H1 | Bearish Drop OffMomentum: Bearish
Price has rejected the sell entry level, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Sell Entry: 106,514.04
Strong pullback resistance
61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Stop Loss: 108,576.28
Pullback resistance
78.6% Fibonacci retracement
Take Profit: 102,418.60
Pullback support
61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.






















