My BTCUSD bias this weekExpecting BTCUSD price don drop more
I trade AMD chart pattern in price action using candlestick as my indicator
Trade ideas
Triangle pattern and Triple bottomThe price has formed a reversal pattern after a bearish move which was also a pullback on a larger timeframe, now the price looks to go long after a breakout and pullback
WE ONLY TRADE PULLBACKS
Comment your thoughts
Minimum buy to neutral MACD is flat and laying on the PVT resistance level at 101300 which coincides with CVD. Looks like we have exhausted the buy momentum found our bottom a transition to a neutral rating.
Buy to NeutralMACD is flat and laying on the PVT resistance level at 101300 with coincides with CVD. Looks like we found our exhausted the buy momentum found our bottom and we are transitioning to a neutral rating.
BTCUSD — Holding the Discount Zone Bitcoin (BTC/USD) continues to respect its 4H structure.
After tapping twice into the Discount Zone (98,900–99,000), price is holding firm, forming a potential short-term base.
Key Structure Levels:
• 🟩 Discount Zone: 98,900–99,000 (demand)
• ⚖️ Equilibrium: 107,800
• 🟥 Premium Zone: 115,500–116,300
If buyers defend the discount area, a move back toward equilibrium could follow, offering a clear reaction-based setup.
Invalidation occurs on a confirmed close below 98,900.
⚠️ Educational analysis — not financial advice.
#BTCUSD #Bitcoin #SilentScalpers #SmartMoneyConcepts #PriceAction #Crypto
#BITCOIN SUNDAY UPDATE $BTC is holding just above the 100K #BITCOIN SUNDAY UPDATE
CRYPTOCAP:BTC is holding just above the 100K support zone. If Bitcoin loses 99K with a confirmed daily close below it, we could see a drop toward the 92K–90K.
A small reversal around 106K or above is possible, but I’m not betting on it. I’ll hold short.
The scary part? When Bitcoin finally dumps, it does not give you chances to buy. The big moves happen in minutes, and by the time you react, it’s already gone.
Global markets are flashing red. Stocks are wobbling under heavy profit taking, major funds are trimming risk, and whispers about liquidity shortages are spreading fast. Wealthy investors are quietly rotating out of risk assets and into cash or gold. That’s never a bullish sign for Bitcoin. When institutions sell quietly and retailers keep buying loudly, history always ends the same way. Stay alert.
I’m still holding my short positions, waiting for confirmation below 100K. If I close or open any new longs or shorts, I’ll update you immediately.
Macro View: CPI volatility plus FOMC tone plus FAT liquidity shift equals high risk for a deeper BTC correction.
Key Levels:
🔹 Resistance: 106K 110K
🔹 Support: 100K 92K 90K
BTCUSD Daily: Watching for Post-ATH Correction Pattern to UnfoldPotential Local Bottom Ahead?
Overall Outlook: I'm tracking a recurring pattern in Bitcoin's price action following each all-time high (ATH), involving sharp drops, interactions with the 50-day and 200-day moving averages (MAs), and key Fibonacci levels. This has played out twice before in this cycle, and we're now in the midst of what could be the third iteration. The setup suggests a potential further drop of around 33.78% from the latest ATH, targeting the 100% Fib level for a local bottom, possibly timed near a death cross. If this holds true, it could signal a strong buying opportunity at the bottom, as price has historically reversed and rallied hard afterward. For now, the theory looks promising, but I'll update this idea as events unfold.
Key Pattern and Historical Observations: This analysis focuses on a consistent post-ATH correction structure that's emerged in Bitcoin's daily chart over the past couple of years. It typically involves: A new ATH breaking above a key Fib extension level.
A subsequent drop of 31-33%, crossing under the 50MA and 200MA.
Bottoming near a lower Fib level (often 2 levels below the ATH breakout point), with timing influenced by the death cross (50MA crossing under 200MA).
Post-bottom recovery: Choppy ups and downs, reclaiming MAs and Fib levels, leading to the next leg up.
Let's break it down by each ATH in the series: First ATH (March 2024): Peaked at $73,794, right above the 78.60% Fib level. This was followed by a 32.82% drop to a local bottom at $49,577. Price action dropped 2 Fib levels to land at the 50% Fib, after crossing under both the 50MA and 200MA. Notably, the local bottom formed just days before the death cross occurred, suggesting the cross could help time reversals. From there, recovery wasn't immediate, price pushed up, hit resistance at the 200MA, dropped, rallied again, and repeated this process. Eventually, it found support at the 50MA and pushed over the 200MA. This consolidation phase lasted from March to August 2024 before the uptrend resumed.
Second ATH (January 2025): Hit $109,356, breaking above the 127.20% Fib level. Similar to the first, it dropped 31.93% to a local bottom at $74,434 and again, 2 Fib levels lower, landing close to the 78.60% Fib (which was key in the prior ATH). This time, the bottom came shortly after the death cross, flipping the timing slightly from the previous instance (after vs. before). Post-bottom, price reclaimed the next Fib level and the 50MA, then crossed the 200MA and held strong without looking back, all the way until October 2025.
Third ATH (Early October 2025): Reached $126,272, just above the 161.80% Fib level. Following the pattern, but accelerating faster this time, price has already dropped under the 200MA and found at least temporary support at the 127.20% Fib level.
Current Setup and Open Questions: Based on the prior two ATHs, this third one raises two key questions that could define the next move: Will price drop to the next lower Fib level? That would mean targeting the 100% Fib, implying a total drop of around 33.78% from the $126,272 ATH (putting the local bottom somewhere near $83,600, give or take based on exact Fib anchoring).
Will a death cross mark the bottom? In the first case, the bottom was days before the cross; in the second, shortly after. Watching for an impending death cross could help time the reversal in real time.
If the pattern repeats, we're likely in the early stages of the correction, with more downside before the bottom forms. This setup has a good chance to play out given the historical parallels, offering a prime spot to buy the dip once the local bottom confirms. I'll keep this idea updated as price action develops, especially monitoring Fib interactions, MA crosses, and any signs of reversal. Potential Trade Considerations: Watch Zones: Resistance: 161.80% Fib ($126,272, prior ATH) and 200MA for any failed retests.
Support Targets: 127.20% Fib (current temp support), then 100% Fib for the potential local bottom (~33.78% drop zone).
Entry Idea: No aggressive positions yet, wait for signs of bottoming near the 100% Fib or around a death cross. If confirmed, long entry on reversal signals (e.g., bullish candle above 50MA).
Risk Management: Set stops below key Fib supports. Target post-recovery upside to prior ATH or higher Fib extensions.
Invalidation: A quick reclaim of the 200MA without further drop could break the pattern, shifting to bullish continuation.
External Factors:
While the technicals are strong, BTC in late 2025 is heavily influenced by US macros, which could amplify or disrupt this post-ATH drop pattern.
For instance: Ongoing Government Shutdown: The US federal government has been shut down since October 1, 2025, making this the longest shutdown in history (now at 39+ days as of Nov 9). It's causing widespread disruptions, including halted SNAP benefits for millions, delays in airport operations due to air traffic controller shortages, increased reliance on food pantries by military families, and broader economic strain like reduced tourism and spending ahead of Thanksgiving. Negotiations are stalled, with Senate Republicans pushing for votes to reopen but Democrats holding out for extensions on ACA tax credits. This uncertainty could weigh on risk assets like BTC, potentially accelerating the expected 33.78% drop if it drags on and hurts consumer confidence or triggers a recessionary vibe. On the flip side, a quick resolution might spark a relief rally, shortening the correction phase.
Fed's Stance on Rate Cuts: There's no FOMC meeting in November, so no rate cut then. For December, Fed Chair Powell emphasized after the October 29 quarter-point cut (bringing the fed funds rate to 3.75%-4%) that another reduction is "not a foregone conclusion" and depends on incoming data. Internal divisions are evident: some officials like Beth Hammack and Lorie Logan question further easing, citing a resilient economy and risks of reigniting inflation.
The shutdown is complicating this by blocking key data releases (e.g., jobs reports), which Powell likened to "driving in the fog." If no cut happens in December, it could pressure BTC lower in the short term by signalling tighter policy, aligning with a deeper Fib target. But if data softens dramatically (e.g., due to shutdown effects), a surprise cut might catalyze the bottom and reversal.
Ending QT and Potential QE Shift: The Fed announced it will end quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1, halting the balance sheet runoff and instead rolling over maturing Treasuries to hold holdings steady at around $6.6 trillion. This addresses tightening money markets and funding strains, but it's not yet quantitative easing (QE), it's more of a pause to maintain ample reserves rather than active expansion. Some analysts speculate this could pave the way for QE resumption if economic conditions worsen (e.g., prolonged shutdown or labour market cooling), potentially starting in December or early 2026. For BTC, ending QT removes a liquidity drain, which is bullish long-term and could support post-bottom rally. If QE kicks in sooner, it might act as rocket fuel, shortening the correction and pushing toward new ATHs faster, but watch for inflation risks that could prompt hawkish pushback.
If you like this idea, feel free to leave a comment, boost, or share your thoughts.
Remember, this is not financial advice; trade responsibly!
Always take profits and manage risk!
Interaction is welcome in the comments!
Bitcoin Trend lines tell same story as all the complicated TA
There are things to be said for complicated and highly technical TA using in dicators that read all the online data available.
But at the end of the day, Trend lines can very often tell you exactly the same thing.
The Chart above simply shows the lines of support and Resistance.
The Current line of support comes off a line made in May / June this year
The line of resistance comes from a line created in October this year
These 2 lines meet towards the end of the month and if PA remains between these 2 till then, that will create the expected RED month candle.
If we drop below this area, we arrive at 2 other trend lines that habe an intersection around 96K.
This is a Zone quoted by any analysts including myself, as an area of Make or Break.
But also nothe the line of support below that too....around 88K - 90K
This is also an area quoted by highlt technical indicators.
And just a quick Zoom out to see the whole picture.
btcusdThis pattern is also very similar to the 5 waves at the end of an uptrend, which makes it a little difficult to identify for further guidance.
Our previous analysis was based on the assumption that a running correction was taking place. However, this does not seem to be the case and Bitcoin is increasing its price with low volume in the indicators, which will probably stop a decline towards lower levels in the 90, 80 and 70 ranges in the next few months and gain enough momentum to continue.
Objectives and Functions of the Federal ReserveIntroduction
The Federal Reserve System (commonly called “the Fed”) is the central banking system of the United States. Established in 1913 by the Federal Reserve Act, it was created in response to financial panics and instability that plagued the U.S. economy during the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Over time, the Fed has evolved into one of the most powerful financial institutions in the world, influencing not only the American economy but also global financial markets. Its primary purpose is to ensure a stable financial system, maintain price stability, and promote sustainable economic growth.
Objectives of the Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve operates under what is known as the “dual mandate,” given by the U.S. Congress. However, in practice, it pursues three broad objectives: maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. Additionally, maintaining financial stability and ensuring the safety of the banking system are implicit objectives that guide its policies.
1. Price Stability
Price stability means controlling inflation—keeping it low and predictable. High inflation erodes purchasing power, distorts investment decisions, and creates uncertainty, while deflation (falling prices) can lead to reduced consumer spending and economic stagnation.
The Fed aims for an average inflation rate of around 2% per year, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. By maintaining price stability, the Fed helps create an environment conducive to sustainable growth and stable employment.
2. Maximum Employment
Another key objective is to achieve maximum employment, meaning that everyone who wants to work can find a job at prevailing wage levels. While the Fed cannot control employment directly, it influences labor markets through monetary policy. For instance, when the economy is weak and unemployment is high, the Fed can lower interest rates to stimulate borrowing, investment, and consumption, which increases job creation.
3. Moderate Long-Term Interest Rates
By controlling inflation and supporting employment, the Fed indirectly maintains moderate long-term interest rates. Stable rates encourage investment in productive assets like housing, infrastructure, and business expansion. This, in turn, promotes economic growth and stability.
4. Financial System Stability
The Fed also seeks to maintain the stability of the U.S. financial system. During times of economic crisis—such as the Great Depression (1930s), the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, or the 2020 pandemic—the Fed steps in to prevent systemic collapses by providing liquidity to banks and financial markets. It acts as a lender of last resort, ensuring confidence in the banking system.
5. Supervisory and Regulatory Objectives
Beyond monetary policy, the Fed regulates and supervises banks to ensure they operate safely and soundly. It aims to protect consumers’ financial interests, prevent excessive risk-taking, and uphold public confidence in the financial system.
Functions of the Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve carries out its objectives through a range of critical functions that impact every aspect of the U.S. economy and global financial system.
1. Conducting Monetary Policy
Monetary policy is the Fed’s most important function. It involves managing the supply of money and credit to achieve its macroeconomic objectives. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is responsible for setting monetary policy.
a. Open Market Operations (OMO)
Open market operations are the primary tool for controlling short-term interest rates. When the Fed buys government securities, it injects liquidity into the economy, lowering interest rates and encouraging spending. Conversely, selling securities withdraws money from circulation, raising interest rates to control inflation.
b. Discount Rate
The discount rate is the interest rate charged to commercial banks that borrow directly from the Federal Reserve. Lowering this rate makes borrowing cheaper for banks, stimulating lending, while raising it tightens credit conditions.
c. Reserve Requirements
Banks are required to hold a certain percentage of their deposits as reserves. By adjusting this requirement, the Fed can influence how much money banks can lend. Though rarely used today, it remains a powerful monetary policy tool.
d. Interest on Reserves
Since 2008, the Fed pays interest on the reserves banks hold at the central bank. Adjusting this rate helps the Fed manage short-term interest rates and control liquidity in the financial system.
2. Supervising and Regulating Banks
The Federal Reserve ensures the soundness of the banking system through supervision and regulation. It oversees bank holding companies, state-chartered banks that are members of the Federal Reserve System, and certain foreign banking organizations.
Its regulatory functions include:
Monitoring bank capital adequacy and liquidity.
Enforcing consumer protection laws (like the Truth in Lending Act).
Conducting periodic stress tests to ensure banks can withstand economic shocks.
Preventing excessive risk-taking that could endanger financial stability.
This oversight protects both depositors and the broader economy from banking crises.
3. Maintaining Financial System Stability
The Fed plays a crucial role as a lender of last resort. During financial crises, it provides liquidity to prevent bank runs or market freezes.
For example:
In 2008, the Fed injected trillions into the banking system to stabilize credit markets.
In 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, it implemented emergency lending programs to support businesses, state governments, and households.
Through these actions, the Fed helps prevent the collapse of the financial system and restores market confidence.
4. Providing Financial Services
The Federal Reserve acts as a bank for banks and the U.S. government. It provides various financial services, including:
Clearing and settling interbank payments.
Distributing and maintaining the supply of U.S. currency and coins.
Managing the Treasury’s accounts and issuing government securities.
Operating the Fedwire Funds Service, which handles large-value transfers between banks.
These services form the backbone of the nation’s payment and settlement system, ensuring smooth financial operations.
5. Managing the Nation’s Payment Systems
The Fed plays an essential role in ensuring the safety, efficiency, and accessibility of payment systems in the U.S. It manages systems that process electronic payments, checks, and funds transfers. Additionally, it works with private financial institutions to modernize payment technologies, such as the development of the FedNow instant payment system launched in 2023.
6. Serving as the Fiscal Agent for the U.S. Government
The Federal Reserve assists the U.S. Department of the Treasury in various ways:
Issuing and redeeming Treasury securities.
Processing government payments, such as Social Security and tax refunds.
Managing the federal debt efficiently.
By doing so, the Fed supports the fiscal operations of the government and ensures the smooth execution of public financial activities.
7. Conducting Economic Research and Data Analysis
The Federal Reserve System employs thousands of economists who analyze economic data, study financial trends, and forecast future developments. Their research supports monetary policy decisions and provides valuable insights for the public, academic institutions, and policymakers.
Each of the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks contributes to this research function, offering a localized perspective on economic conditions across the U.S.
Conclusion
The Federal Reserve stands at the heart of the U.S. and global financial systems. Its objectives—maintaining price stability, achieving maximum employment, and ensuring moderate long-term interest rates—form the foundation of economic stability and prosperity. Through its multifaceted functions, including monetary policy, bank supervision, financial system stability, and payment services, the Fed ensures that the U.S. economy operates smoothly even in the face of domestic and global challenges.
In an increasingly interconnected world, the Federal Reserve’s actions extend beyond American borders, influencing exchange rates, global capital flows, and international economic stability. Its careful balancing of inflation, employment, and growth makes it one of the most significant institutions shaping the global financial landscape.
BTCUSD Intraday Trading Levels for today 9/11/25BTCUSD Intraday Trading Levels for today 9/11/25. Anyone can trade on both sides.
$BTCUSD charting the complex correctionBITSTAMP:BTCUSD : Price action since July 2025 high (at the time) has been chopping, not impulsive. We can see a complex correction XWY. We're in Y since the top at $126K. A zigzag correction can be seen for this Y leg. For this ABC zig zag, that final wave C needs to be 5 waves. We have completed 3 waves and is now in Wave 4, which looks like it's forming a triangle.
There is a confluence of trendlines at around $103.2K to end the triangle. Wave 5 of C can take prices to the green support line. For a zigzag, A=C projects to 93.6K range. Can it nuke down there? absolutely. But I expect the green support line to hold.
Short-term Bitcoin Corrections are not the end🌀 Bitcoin and the Wave of Rest: An Elliott Wave Perspective for Late 2025
“Markets don’t fall because of bad news —
they fall because buying power runs out.”
This line perfectly captures the rhythm of Bitcoin’s current movement.
After an extraordinary rally that lifted BTC/USD beyond $120,000, peaking near $125,000, the market began to cool — signaling the exhaustion of Wave (5), the final thrust of a major bullish cycle.
Now, Bitcoin enters a corrective phase that most traders dread — but seasoned Elliott Wave analysts recognize as the birthplace of the next great wave.
________________________________________
🌊 The Big Picture: Five Waves of Expansion
Looking back to mid-2024, Bitcoin completed a textbook five-wave impulse structure — a full bullish cycle in Elliott Wave theory.
1. Wave (1) — The first spark, rising from $25,000 to $40,000
2. Wave (2) — A shallow consolidation, fueling momentum
3. Wave (3) — The powerhouse wave, driven by ETF inflows and institutional adoption
4. Wave (4) — A mild correction without breaking prior structure
5. Wave (5) — The final push to $122,000–$125,000, completing the major uptrend
After touching the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the Wave (3) move, price reversed sharply — confirming the end of the impulsive phase and the beginning of an A–B–C corrective pattern.
________________________________________
📉 The A–B–C Correction: A Healthy Pause
Corrections are the market’s way of catching its breath.
Following the parabolic climb, Bitcoin is now tracing out a Zigzag correction (5–3–5), guided by Fibonacci projections:
Fibonacci Ratio Target Level (USD) Significance
0.769× $98,900 First support zone (Wave c minor)
1.000× $93,600 Standard A–B–C completion target
1.618× $79,500 Extended correction / deep bottom
This decline isn’t a collapse — it’s a realignment of market psychology:
greed fading into fear, short-term traders exiting, while long-term capital quietly waits to accumulate near structural supports.
________________________________________
⚖️ Reversal Levels and Risk Boundaries
• Resistance: $114,000–$116,000 (Wave b top zone)
• Primary Support: $93,000–$95,000
• Major Support: $79,000–$80,000 (Fibonacci 1.618 & lower channel trendline)
• Invalidation: A confirmed close below $78,000 → signals the end of the long-term bullish cycle
Conversely, a daily close above $118,000 would invalidate the correction count, marking the emergence of a new impulse wave into 2026.
________________________________________
🎯 Trading & Investment Strategy
1️⃣ Short-Term Traders: Riding the (c) Wave Down
• Sell Zone: $114K–$116K (failed rebound area)
• Stop Loss: $118K
• Targets:
o TP1 → $98,900
o TP2 → $93,600
o TP3 → $79,500 (extended target)
• Style: Swing/position trade within the ongoing corrective structure
“Trade the fear — not the hope.”
________________________________________
2️⃣ Long-Term Investors: Accumulating the Next Cycle
For strategic investors, this correction is not danger — it’s opportunity.
• Accumulation Zone: $93K–$80K
• Positioning: ⅓ allocation per entry level
• Stop (optional): Below $78K
• Next Bull Targets:
o Medium-term → $135K
o Long-term → $160K–$180K (Wave 3 of the next major cycle)
This is where strong hands replace weak hands — the essence of market evolution through wave theory.
________________________________________
🧠 Psychology Behind the Waves
Each wave reflects collective emotion:
• Wave (3) was optimism turned into euphoria.
• Wave (5) was greed masked as confidence.
• Wave (A) is the shock of realization.
• Wave (C) — the cleansing wave — restores balance and opportunity.
By understanding these emotional cycles, investors don’t just read charts — they read human behavior.
________________________________________
💬 Insight
“Bitcoin isn’t dying; it’s breathing.”
After completing Wave (5) near $125K, BTC is undergoing a natural A–B–C correction —
likely finding support between $93K–$80K before launching the next major impulse.
For traders, this is the season to sell rallies.
For investors, this is the season to accumulate value.
The storm will pass — and when it does, Wave 1 of 2026 may rewrite history.
________________________________________
🪙 Quick Recap
Aspect Details
Market Phase Post-Wave (5) Correction (A–B–C)
Key Supports $98.9K / $93.6K / $79.5K
Resistance $114K–$116K
Long-term Outlook New bullish cycle in 2026–2027
Core Strategy Sell short-term rallies, accumulate near deep support
________________________________________
🧭 Final Thought
Corrections are not the end — they are the reset button for the next bull market.
Every decline inside an Elliott Wave is an invitation to observe, prepare, and position.
Bitcoin is not losing momentum — it’s recharging.
BTCUSD: Overall trend is moving downwardLooking at the candlestick chart, Bitcoin has formed a potential M-top or double top pattern, which is a typical top reversal signal. Currently, the price has broken below all short-term moving averages, indicating obvious weakness.
Yesterday, it is consistent with my analysis. BTC broke below the short-term support at 102,000, fell to around 100,000 where it found support and rebounded. However, this also showed an overall downward shift in the trend, with yesterday’s short-term support at 102,000 having turned into today’s resistance.
Overall, I predict that Bitcoin will continue its overall downward trend today. The short-term support is at 100,000, and a break below this level would target 98,000.
For resistance above, we still focus on 105,000 in the short term, with key attention on 108,000. Only a breakthrough and a firm hold above 108,000 could lead to sustained gains.
Buy 100,000 - 100,500
SL 99,000
TP 102,000 - 102,500 - 103,000
Sell 103,500 - 104,000
SL 104,500
TP 102,000 - 101,500 - 101,000
BTCUSD: Consolidation is the main theme todayYesterday, BTC saw intense battles around the psychological threshold of 100,000. During the session, it once broke below the key support at 99,500, then rebounded to around 104,000.
Today, it pulled back to around 102,000 at the opening of the Asian session and began to consolidate again.
On the upside, the 105,000-105,500 zone forms a crucial resistance range. Only a daily close firmly above this level can confirm the reversal of the short-term downtrend. For today's short-term support, we still focus on 100,000. If it breaks below 100,000, we need to pay key attention to the supporting role of 98,000.
Buy 100,500 - 101,000
SL 100,000
TP 102,000 - 102,500 - 103,000
Sell 103,000 - 103,500
SL 104,000
TP 101,500 - 101,000 - 100,500
$BTC - Critical Support at $100K | Trendline RetestCRYPTOCAP:BTC is sitting at one of the most important levels we’ve seen this year — the $100,000 psychological support zone.
After a multi-month consolidation and a sharp retest of the bullish ascending trendline that has held firm since mid-2024, Bitcoin is once again testing the structure that has defined the uptrend for over a year.
This level will determine whether the next move is a rebound back toward $109K–$126K, or a deeper pullback toward the $92K–$95K horizontal channel below.
🧭 Technical Overview
Support: $100K (key trendline) → $95K → $92K
Resistance: $109,358 → $120K → $126,296
Trend Structure: Rising wedge channel intact since 2024
Momentum: RSI hovering near neutral; previous rebounds from this trendline have led to 20–30% rallies
Volume: Declining on recent pullback — suggesting correction, not reversal
So far, every retest of this yellow ascending support has resulted in higher highs. If this pattern holds, the next target zone is between $126K–$139K, aligning with the November seasonal cycle projection.
📅 Projection Targets
November 8, 2025: $139,000 (as tracked on @Stocktwits Calendar)
January 1, 2027: $145,000 long-term extension target
This would align with the macro halving-cycle rhythm — consolidation, mid-cycle shakeout, and renewed acceleration into the next demand phase.
💬 My Take:
If CRYPTOCAP:BTC holds this $100K base and confirms a rebound above $104K, I expect renewed momentum across majors — with CRYPTOCAP:ETH , CRYPTOCAP:SOL , and CRYPTOCAP:XRP likely following.
Failure to hold $100K could open the door to a flush toward $92K before resumption, but bulls have defended this channel repeatedly for nearly 18 months.
ElDoradoFx – BTCUSD ANALYSIS (09/11/2025, WEEKEND EDITION) (09/11/2025, WEEKEND EDITION)
⸻
1. Market Overview
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) remains under bearish pressure around $101,500, extending its correction from the recent $103,800 recovery peak. Price action confirms a sustained rejection at the $102,600–$103,000 supply zone, with downside continuation now favored as sellers maintain control.
The broader market context shows BTC trapped between the $102,600 ceiling and $99,200 floor, forming a descending channel. Unless bulls reclaim $102,600+, momentum remains bearish heading into next week’s macro calendar (CPI & PPI releases).
⸻
2. Technical Breakdown
🔹 Daily (D1):
• BTC continues trading below the 20EMA, 50EMA, and 100EMA — confirming sustained bearish structure.
• RSI ~38, indicating weak momentum and no signs of trend reversal.
• MACD histogram continues printing red bars, showing continuous sell-side pressure.
• Price remains within a macro range between $99,000–$108,000, with downside favored until structure shifts.
🔹 H1:
• Strong rejection from descending trendline at $102,300–$102,600.
• CHoCH confirmed to the downside below $101,800.
• EMAs aligned bearish (20 < 50 < 200).
• RSI below 45; MACD momentum fading — signals bearish continuation likely.
🔹 15M–5M:
• Structure shows lower highs and weak pullbacks.
• Minor demand zone at $101,000–$100,900; break of this level could trigger a liquidity sweep toward $99,200.
• RSI near 36 with weak MACD cross — short-term bounce possible but unsustainable without strong volume.
⸻
3. Fibonacci Analysis (Last Swing: 103,896 → 99,249)
Level Price (USD) Comment
38.2% 101,037 First retracement / initial resistance
50.0% 101,570 Mid-zone equilibrium
61.8% 102,090 Key reaction level within supply zone
🎯 Golden Zone: 101,000 – 102,090 → Acting as intraday supply zone for high-probability sells.
⸻
4. High-Probability Trade Scenarios
📉 Bearish Continuation Setup (Main Bias)
• Entry Zone: 101,900 – 102,400 (Golden Zone retest)
• TPs: 101,000 → 100,000 → 99,200 → 98,800
• SL: Above 102,600
• Confirmation: Rejection candle + RSI failure to cross 50
• Rationale: Retest of former support turned resistance within descending structure; EMAs and momentum indicators favor continuation.
💥 Breakout SELL Setup
• Trigger: 1H candle close below 100,900
• Retest Zone: 101,100 – 101,300
• TPs: 100,000 → 99,200 → 98,500
• SL: Above 101,600
• Rationale: Structural break of key demand; confirms continuation of broader downtrend.
📈 Countertrend BUY Setup (Low Probability)
• Entry Zone: 99,200 – 98,900 (Liquidity Sweep Zone)
• TPs: 100,800 → 101,600 → 102,400
• SL: Below 98,700
• Confirmation: Bullish divergence on RSI or MACD + absorption wicks
• Rationale: Potential liquidity collection zone where short covering may occur; low conviction long setup.
⸻
5. Fundamental Watch
• Weekend volatility remains thin; potential for stop-hunts before Monday’s open.
• DXY holding above 105 supports bearish sentiment in BTC.
• No major macroeconomic catalysts until early next week — expect range-bound but reactive price behavior.
• CME futures gap near $102,800 could attract a brief fill before resumption lower.
⸻
6. Key Technical Levels
Type Levels (USD)
Resistance 102,400 / 102,600 / 103,000 / 105,800
Support 101,000 / 100,000 / 99,200 / 98,900
Golden Zone 101,000 – 102,090
Break Buy Trigger > 102,600
Break Sell Trigger < 100,900
⸻
7. Analyst Summary
BTC is consolidating under the 102K–103K ceiling, showing clear exhaustion from buyers and renewed strength from sellers. The Golden Zone (101,000–102,090) offers the highest-probability sell opportunities for continuation to 99K.
Momentum, EMAs, and trend alignment all support a bearish outlook unless price cleanly reclaims 102,600+ on H1 structure.
⸻
8. Final Bias Summary
✅ Primary Bias: Bearish below 102K — selling rallies within the 101–102K zone targeting 99K.
⚠️ Secondary Bias: Bullish recovery only if 102,600 breaks with volume and structure shift confirmed.
⸻
— ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 3.0 Team 🚀
BtcusdHmmm 🤔what do you guys think because anyways its going down...
Which entry will be best?
I think the last one is more secure and less risky because its a breakout confirmation on a falling wedge📉second one it is 💡
Where bitcoin will going?Here is my outlook that i saw this chart is very interested. Now, Bitcoin has been going down to the support then trynna to back to the resisctance again. How can we know on the future? Actually i dont really said it will true but tbh i am a netral person. So after the going back to the resistance mmay be he will go to the next step (160k)
What's next fro BTCLooking through from a harmonic perspective this is what I have.
Trade safe, not financial advice
