BTC AnalysisAfter breaking out its uptrend line, Bitcoin is completing the pullback to its trend line, while with the formation of an increasing angle pattern in the same direction with the main trend, we are witnessing fatigue in the trend. There is a possibility that the price will drop to the range of 41 to 43 thousand dollars.
Trade ideas
BTC/USD — Weak Recovery Within Downtrend Channel (Weekly OutlookBTC/USD continues to move within a descending channel.
• A breakout above 109,375.00 (Murray ), aligned with the midline of the Bollinger Bands, could trigger an upward move toward 115,625.00 (Murray ), 121,875.00 (Murray ), and 125,000.00 (Murray ).
• Conversely, a sustained break below 100,000.00 (Murray ) would likely extend the decline toward 93,750.00 (Murray , Fibonacci 61.8% correction).
Resistance levels: 109,375.00 — 115,625.00 — 121,875.00 — 125,000.00
Support levels: 100,000.00 — 93,750.00
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Technical Outlook
• Bollinger Bands: Sloping downward — consistent with continued bearish pressure.
• MACD: Stable in the negative zone — momentum favors sellers.
• Stochastic: Rising toward overbought territory, hinting at a possible near-term reversal.
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Trading Scenarios
Primary Scenario (Sell Stop)
• Entry: 99,960.00
• Take Profit: 93,750.00
• Stop Loss: 104,400.00
• Bias: Bearish continuation below 100,000.00
• Timeframe: 5–7 days
Alternative Scenario (Buy Stop)
• Entry: 109,400.00
• Take Profit: 115,625.00 / 121,875.00 / 125,000.00
• Stop Loss: 105,300.00
• Bias: Bullish reversal above 109,375.00
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💬 Bitcoin remains under selling pressure within its descending channel. A break below 100,000.00 could accelerate the move toward 93,750.00, while a close above 109,375.00 would mark the first sign of a potential bullish reversal.
Bitcoin Correction Eyes $108,800FenzoFx—Bitcoin rebounded from $99,300.00 and is now trading near $106,000.00. This upward move is likely a corrective phase, with potential to fill the liquidity void up to $108,800.00.
The equal lows at $99,326.00 remain vulnerable after repeated tests. We expect the downtrend to resume once BTC reaches the bearish fair value gap near $108,000.00. If confirmed, the next bearish targets are $100,000.00 and $90,000.00. The bearish outlook remains intact as long as the price stays below $116,576.00.
Bitcoin is looking like November in 2017Bitcoin’s current price action mirrors its 2017 cycle structure , suggesting potential for a major breakout.
Chart Structure and Pattern Recognition
This chart highlights the classic Elliott Wave five-wave pattern seen in Bitcoin’s 2017 bull run: a strong impulsive sequence (waves 1, 3, and 5) bracketed by healthy corrections (waves 2 and 4).
The move culminates in a dramatic breakout above key resistance, followed by an aggressive rally and sharp post-peak correction, capturing both trend acceleration and market psychology at a cycle top.
Implications for 2025
Bitcoin’s price structure today closely resembles the 2017 formation — both cases show a multi-month consolidation leading to breakout, followed by a parabolic fifth wave.
If this fractal repeats, Bitcoin may see another substantial rally after consolidation, echoing the euphoric breakout of Q4 2017. This suggests traders should watch for a decisive break above resistance and be mindful of rapid trend reversals near cycle highs.
BTCUSD⬆️ Buy Range: 100500 - 99000
⏹️ Stop Loss: 95900
*️⃣ Take Profit: 106200 - 109300
🔠 Due to a drop in liquidity in recent weeks, the Bitcoin price has fallen to the psychologically important 100000 mark. At this level, we expect short-term consolidation and a resumption of price growth and demand for the cryptocurrency above 106000–108000. Alternatively, the price could break through and firmly consolidate below 98000, paving the way for a price approaching 92000. We consider this scenario unlikely, but not impossible.
BTCUSD SELL 109730On the 4-hour chart, BTCUSD has stabilized and rebounded, and the short-term trend is expected to continue upward. Currently, pay attention to the area around 109730, which is a potential shorting entry point for a bearish bat pattern, and it also falls within the previous supply zone.
BTC/USD 109,150 | Fibo Confluence Setup Downtrend Analysis – BTC/USD 109,150 | Fibo Confluence Setup in Line with the Downtrend
Context:
The market is maintaining its main bearish trend.
Technical Analysis:
1️⃣ The overall trend remains consistently bearish, with no clear reversal signals.
2️⃣ When drawing the Fibonacci retracement in the direction of the trend, the 0.5–0.618 zone coincides with the key level around 109,150, forming a strong confluence between two major swing points (high and low).
3️⃣ This is a potential reaction area where price may continue to decline if the bearish structure remains intact.
Expected Scenario:
Monitor price action around 109,150. If price reacts weakly here or gives continuation signals, the bearish trend is likely to strengthen.
$BTC: C wave completed?CRYPTOCAP:BTC : classic Elliott Wave theory calls for the C wave to have 5-waves. However, some have argued it can be 3 waves -- an ABC.
We have complete 3 waves at the $98ish bottom. If it's going to be 5 waves, then prices will turn down after hitting the trendline. The 5th wave of the very last leg can truncate, however. So it can be a small pullback and big Wave iii up will ensue.
However, if the correction can end with a 3-wave sequence as the last leg, then we're already in Wave 1 of (iii). After this wave completes, Wave 2 of (iii) pulls back.
Either way, both counts can project the same price movements so there is no need to worry about which count is correct.
--This wave up to the trendline or thereabouts, then pullback.
Chart Pattern Analysis Of Bitcoin.
K5 close below the neck line of a potential bearish head-shoulder pattern.
K5 also close below the long-term uptrend line.
If I bought it earlier,
I will try to cut off all my long-term positions and even try to short it.
If K6 is a green candle like K3 and close upon K5,
K5 will be a fake down,
And the consolidation around the neck line will keep expanding.
Even a bull run will start here.
But the possibility is relatively low now.
I don’t think the market will keep accelerating to fall down,
And ,if the following candles return back to test 0.5fib area,
It will be a potential good place to short it there.
Short-111.2K/Stop-116.6K/Target-90K
#BTC Simple S&R strategy will be more than enough to trade in an#BTC STILL IN #BUY@LOW Level #BTCUSD
Check my previous post where it started
#buy@low #sell@high
Simple trading strategy support & resistance
All trading methods will give only 49% or 51% - #money Management is the key
Your money management only decides your profit
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@low #sell@high
Any trade money management is a tool to help you grow your portfolio.
Simple trading strategy support & resistance
All trading methods will give only 49% or 51% - #moneyManagement is the key
Your money management only decides your profit
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PATTERN logic + MACD LOWS/POTENCIAL = High probabilities.If you combine basic FACTORS of Patterns + MACD (weaknesses or Lows/Highs) you get pretty straightforward probability.
Weekly MACD above zero (and daily macd above zero) mean strong impulse, trend. But sometimes deep corrections in negative territory (bears) are not negative, because every chart pattern require strong "push" to break the pattern. I think you can see if there's smoke, in advance.
BTCUSD – Short Setup from Daily Supply Zone | R:R 5.59Price has retraced and we can expect if price rejects the daily supply zone (around 109,354–111,246 USD) after a strong bearish impulse. This zone aligns with prior imbalance and bearish order flow, offering a high-probability sell limit opportunity.
Trade Setup Details:
Type: Sell Limit
Entry: 109,354
Stop Loss: 111,246
Take Profit: 98,780
Risk-Reward: 5.59R
Technical Context:
Daily structure remains bearish with lower highs forming.
The 30m supply zone confluences with the daily supply, reinforcing the rejection area.
Target set near previous demand base and liquidity sweep around 98,780.
Trade Plan:
Wait for price to tap into supply and show confirmation of rejection before executing. Manage risk responsibly and trail stop once price clears 1R.
BTCUSD — Holding the Discount Zone Bitcoin (BTC/USD) continues to respect its 4H structure.
After tapping twice into the Discount Zone (98,900–99,000), price is holding firm, forming a potential short-term base.
Key Structure Levels:
• 🟩 Discount Zone: 98,900–99,000 (demand)
• ⚖️ Equilibrium: 107,800
• 🟥 Premium Zone: 115,500–116,300
If buyers defend the discount area, a move back toward equilibrium could follow, offering a clear reaction-based setup.
Invalidation occurs on a confirmed close below 98,900.
⚠️ Educational analysis — not financial advice.
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#BITCOIN SUNDAY UPDATE $BTC is holding just above the 100K #BITCOIN SUNDAY UPDATE
CRYPTOCAP:BTC is holding just above the 100K support zone. If Bitcoin loses 99K with a confirmed daily close below it, we could see a drop toward the 92K–90K.
A small reversal around 106K or above is possible, but I’m not betting on it. I’ll hold short.
The scary part? When Bitcoin finally dumps, it does not give you chances to buy. The big moves happen in minutes, and by the time you react, it’s already gone.
Global markets are flashing red. Stocks are wobbling under heavy profit taking, major funds are trimming risk, and whispers about liquidity shortages are spreading fast. Wealthy investors are quietly rotating out of risk assets and into cash or gold. That’s never a bullish sign for Bitcoin. When institutions sell quietly and retailers keep buying loudly, history always ends the same way. Stay alert.
I’m still holding my short positions, waiting for confirmation below 100K. If I close or open any new longs or shorts, I’ll update you immediately.
Macro View: CPI volatility plus FOMC tone plus FAT liquidity shift equals high risk for a deeper BTC correction.
Key Levels:
🔹 Resistance: 106K 110K
🔹 Support: 100K 92K 90K






















