BTC/USD - Market Structure & Price Action Setup (4H)Currently, Bitcoin is trading within a clear downtrend, forming Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL). Price is consolidating around a key support zone after rejecting from the recent supply area.
Two potential scenarios:
✅ Bullish case: If price breaks above the minor lower high and reclaims the 106K–108K resistance zone, we could see continuation toward the major supply zone near 115K–116K, forming a possible structure shift.
❌ Bearish case: If price rejects from the current zone and fails to break structure, a continuation to the downside is likely, targeting the next major demand area around 94K–95K aligned with the descending trendline.
Bias: Neutral until structure confirms a breakout.
Focus: Watch for reaction and candle confirmation around key structure levels.
Trade ideas
Bitcoin Macro Structure – Next Cycle Projection to $180K (Fract)This chart proposes a new Bitcoin macrostructure model, suggesting that the current cycle will not follow the traditional 4-year halving rhythm.
Instead, the geometry of the chart and the expanding time structure point toward a 6-7 year supercycle — a longer accumulation and expansion phase that may redefine Bitcoin’s historical rhythm.
The price action continues to respect the long-term ascending trendline since 2017, forming broader impulses and corrections with each cycle.
Targets remain at $130K, $150K, and up to $180K, where the top of this extended structure might complete.
After that, a multi-year correction could bring BTC back to the $70K–$80K range before the next long accumulation.
This projection suggests that Bitcoin’s volatility and growth waves are stretching over time, creating a slower but larger-scale cycle compared to the previous ones.
It’s a macro perspective, not financial advice — intended to illustrate how Bitcoin might evolve as the market matures.
BTC/USD – Head and Shoulders Breakdown in ProgressBitcoin is showing a classic Head and Shoulders pattern on the 12H chart, signaling potential bearish momentum. The neckline around $107,000 has been broken, and price is now retesting this area as resistance. If sellers maintain control below this level, a continuation toward the $100,000–$98,000 zone could follow.
Neckline / Resistance: $107,000
Support Zone: $100,000 – $98,000
Bias: Bearish below neckline; potential reversal only if price reclaims $107K.
This chart highlights structure-based analysis only — not financial advice. Wait for confirmation before any trading decisions
Bitcoin Rebound from Support Toward Key Resistance TargetsBitcoin is showing a potential rebound from the support zone near $103,200. Price may target the $104,800 (Target 1) and $105,400 (Target 2) resistance levels if bullish momentum continues. The Fair Value Gap (FVG) suggests possible upward movement after recent correction.
$BTC/USD looking for this bullish harmonic to finishBITSTAMP:BTCUSD : Bitcoin is close to the trendline touch. It would also correspond to NASDAQ:MSTR completing an ABC flat correction.
If the BTC bull market is to continue, this trendline needs to hold. The Elliot Wave count would be having completed Waves i, ii of Wave IV, completed wave (i) of Wave iii of Wave V and we're in wave (ii) correction of Wave iii of Wave V.
Wave (ii) have retraced 50% of Wave (i), which is pretty standard. It is an expanded flat.
Things do line up and I expect BTC to bounce from the trendline. And NASDAQ:MSTR may also have bottomed from sub $230 spiking down.
BTCUSD | Liquidity void toward institutional zone (65k)Bitcoin has been showing extremely high volume around the previous high at 109,308, which has been rejected so far. A potential retest followed by a deeper pullback remains likely.
Volume analysis suggests the current leg up is liquidity-driven rather than supported by active participation, leaving a significant liquidity gap below.
The last leg up appears liquidity-driven rather than supported by active participation, leaving a significant liquidity void extending toward the major high-volume concentration near 65,730, where multiple confluences - including institutional positioning, EMA200 (1W), and EMA50 (1M) align. This remains the primary rebalancing zone should the market continue to unwind.
However, if 111,140 holds as near-term support, potential upside targets stand at 123,275, 135,220, and 147,345, representing progressive re-entries into prior distribution zones. Sustained acceptance above 111,140 could shift near-term sentiment toward bullish structure rather than continuation of distribution.
This is not a buy or sell signal. These observations are for market-study purposes only and should not be interpreted as trade instructions.
⚠️ Risk Note:
It is recommended not to overleverage your positions. Overexposure is the main killer of portfolios. Position sizing directly impacts mental clarity: excessive size can cloud judgment and trigger emotional reactions, while appropriate sizing supports composure and disciplined execution. It is better to collect steady breadcrumbs than to risk giving away your capital.
Trading risk can be managed but never eliminated.
❗Disclaimer:
This content is provided for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, tax, or investment advice. The author does not provide trading signals, portfolio management, or any services regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
BTCUSD testing the channel's resistance, potential decline seenBitcoin prices hovered near recent lows as onchain data showed that the Total Supply Held by LTHs has declined by around 390k BTC since Jul's peak, signaling ongoing distribution.
ETF outflows have persisted through Nov, with only minor inflows offering a limited offset, underscoring waning demand.
Bitcoin prices may remain under pressure as risk appetite softens and investor conviction weakens.
From a technical perspective, BTCUSD is testing the upper bound of the descending channel, which coincides with the 106,500 resistance. The Ichimoku cloud is also indicating bearish pressure. If BTCUSD breaks the psychological support level at 100,000, the price may extend its decline toward the 93,000 support level. Conversely, a bullish breakout of the channel may prompt a retest of the resistance at 115,000.
By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness
Four-dimensional perspective reconfigures upward support1.Macroeconomic Environment: Rate Cut Expectation Pullback Doesn’t Alter Dovish FundamentalsWhile the probability of a Fed rate cut in December has fallen from 90% to 68%, the implicit easing trend remains unbroken. The sell-off in risk assets triggered by the short-term strength of the US dollar index has entered its final phase. Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has dropped to a historical low of -0.54, highlighting asset independence as it no longer fluctuates solely with traditional safe-haven assets. Current valuations have pulled back over 20% from historical highs, and the enhanced attractiveness after bubble squeezing creates conditions for capital inflows.
2.Technical Pattern: Double Bottom Formation + Gap Support Build a Safety CushionA dense order zone has formed on the daily chart between $98,100 and $102,000, jointly constructing a preliminary double bottom pattern with the current price of $103,100. The 4-hour chart shows price has pulled back to the lower edge of the previous consolidation range, with an unfilled CME gap between $103,100 and $104,000 creating a technical resonance effect of gap filling and support. The RSI indicator has retreated from the overbought zone to neutral territory, while MACD green bars are contracting, indicating fading bearish momentum.
3.Capital Flow: ETF Outflows Peak + Institutions Deploy Against the TrendThe outflow trend of Bitcoin ETF funds is easing. After the previous withdrawal of $2 billion, selling pressure has been significantly released. Recent trading volume has remained above $50 billion, reflecting ample market liquidity. Selling pressure from whale holders is nearing an end, while institutional investors are deploying against the pullback. Asset management giants like BlackRock maintain core positions, and Coinbase data shows institutional capital inflows have rebounded to 32% of total volume.
4.Supply-Demand Structure: Halving Effect Combined with On-Chain Tightening Provides SupportAfter the 2024 halving, Bitcoin’s daily output dropped to 900 coins, while daily demand from spot ETFs remains high, forming a sustained supply-demand gap. On-chain data shows illiquid supply accounts for 65%, exchange balances continue to decline, and selling pressure from long-term holders has exhausted—providing fundamental support for price stability.
Bitcoin trading strategy
buy:102000-103000
tp:104000-105000
sl:101000
Btc update .Here’s a short, clear description you can use for your Bitcoin chart 👇
“Bitcoin is rebounding from the lower support zone near $102K after testing the 61.8% Fibonacci level. The RSI indicates potential recovery momentum, suggesting BTC could aim for the $103.5K–$104K resistance area if bullish pressure continues.”
Have a good day
BTCUSD | Consolidating Below $110K Amid Bearish Pressure ₿BTCUSD – MARKET OVERVIEW | Consolidating Below $110K Amid Bearish Pressure ₿
Bitcoin continues to show a bearish momentum, having stabilized below $110.36K, which supports the outlook for a potential move lower toward $106.20K.
For now, the price is expected to consolidate between $110.30K and $106.20K until a breakout occurs.
A confirmed 4H candle close below $106.20K would signal further bearish continuation toward $102.64K.
However, if Bitcoin closes a 4H candle above $110.37K, the structure would shift to bullish, targeting $113.80K initially.
📊 Key Technical Levels
Pivot Line: $110.36K
Support: $106.21K · $102.64K · $98.95K
Resistance: $113.80K · $116.47K · $120.60K
💡 Outlook:
BTCUSD remains bearish while below $110.36K, with potential downside toward $106.20K.
A confirmed 4H close below $106.20K would extend the correction to $102.64K,
while a 4H close above $110.37K would shift the bias to bullish toward $113.80K and beyond.
We are NOT finished.Weekly close has come in and, as expected, BTC has closed above the band once again.
Since the start of this cycle, Bitcoin has had the following pullbacks:
September 2023: 21%
August 2024: 34%
April 2025: 33%
November 2025: 21%
Tell me, people—what has changed? Has Bitcoin done anything different from what it’s been doing all cycle?
NO!
Yet 95% of sentiment is extremely bearish. The other 5% who aren’t bearish are patting themselves on the back because they “called the top”—you know, the same “top” everyone is staring at, the same top that can be calculated using basic math from the last two cycles.
Since I joined this space, I have NEVER seen sentiment this bad after only a 20% pullback. Complete madness. The only time I saw emotion this raw was during the COVID crash.
This level of bearish sentiment is what you find at the BOTTOM of rallies, not the top.
The idea that the top is in just because of “cycle length” is invalid—especially when EVERYONE is thinking the exact same thing. It’s never that easy with Bitcoin.
Mark my words: it WILL rally above 200k in 2026, and everyone who sold this year will be buying back in higher. That’s the nature of these markets.
Every cycle, you have to stay grounded, stick to the technical data, and ignore all the noise.
The technical are still holding strong—we are NOT finished!
BRIEFING Week #45 : Growth made the TopHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
Kindly,
Phil
Bitcoin and the Bullish Bat Pattern—But It Might Need a SupermanBitcoin is forming a bullish harmonic Bat pattern right at one of the most critical price zones. But it seems like we might need a “Superman” to push it higher! Everyone’s talking about OG whales dumping, but that’s not entirely true — many of those big moves aren’t actual selling at all. In this video, we’ll break down what’s really happening on-chain, what the power law says about Bitcoin’s next big move, and whether the bulls still have a chance to take off.
Bitcoin’s Decentralization Is a Lie - Here’s the ProofYou’ve Been Fooled For Years
The narrative: Bitcoin is "decentralized money," free from banks, governments, and corporate control. A financial revolution for the people.
The reality: Bitcoin is one of the most centralized, surveilled, and manipulated financial systems in existence, and the public has been sold a decade-long con.
Let’s break down why Bitcoin fails as decentralized money and how the system is controlled by a tiny elite, with more surveillance than traditional finance.
1. The Mining Oligarchy: 90% of Bitcoin’s Supply Controlled by a Handful of Players
Bitcoin’s security and transaction processing rely on miners—but this isn’t a distributed network of mom-and-pop operators. A few massive mining pools dominate the entire system:
Just 4 mining pools (Foundry USA, Antpool, F2Pool, and ViaBTC) control over 60% of Bitcoin’s total hash rate (Blockchain.com).
The top 10% of miners control 90%+ of the mining power—meaning a small group of entities can censor transactions, manipulate fees, or even collude to attack the network.
Mining is centralized in a few countries (U.S., China, Kazakhstan), where governments and corporations can shut it down at will (see: China’s 2021 mining ban, which wiped out 50% of the network overnight).
Hardware centralization: Only ASIC manufacturers (like Bitmain) can profitably mine Bitcoin. No average person can compete—this is industrial-scale control, not decentralization.
→ If 4 companies control the network, how is this "decentralized"?
2. The Validator Dictatorship: Bitcoin’s "Trustless" System Runs on Trust in a Few
Bitcoin’s nodes (computers that validate transactions) are supposed to be the backbone of decentralization. But:
Over 50% of Bitcoin nodes run on just 3 hosting providers (Amazon AWS, Hetzner, OVH) (Bitnodes).
Most full nodes are controlled by exchanges, institutions, and mining pools—not regular users.
If you’re not running a full node (and 99% of users aren’t), you’re trusting someone else’s version of the blockchain. That’s not trustless, that’s blind faith in a centralized elite.
→ If you’re not validating transactions yourself, you’re just a user in their system.
3. The Exchange Trap: Your Bitcoin Isn’t Yours (And Never Was)
95% of Bitcoin is held on exchanges (Coinbase, Binance, Kraken, etc.), not in self-custody wallets.
Exchanges freeze, seize, and censor transactions all the time (e.g., Coinbase banning Tornado Cash users, Binance freezing accounts at government request).
If your Bitcoin is on an exchange, you don’t own it. You own an IOU—just like a bank.
Withdrawal limits, KYC, and government pressure mean your Bitcoin is only as free as the exchange allows.
→ Sound familiar? This is just digital banking with extra steps.
4. The Blockchain Surveillance State: Bitcoin Is the Ultimate Financial Panopticon
Bitcoin was supposed to be private money. Instead, it’s the most transparent financial system ever built:
Every transaction is public forever—no deletions, no do-overs.
Chain analysis firms (Chainalysis, TRM Labs, Elliptic) work with governments, banks, and exchanges to track, deanonymize, and blacklist users.
Once your wallet is linked to your identity (via an exchange, merchant, or IP leak), every transaction you’ve ever made is exposed.
Law enforcement loves Bitcoin because it’s easier to trace than cash. The FBI has recovered billions in Bitcoin from criminals—not because it’s secure, but because it’s trackable.
→ Cash leaves no trail. Bitcoin leaves a permanent, public record of your entire financial life.
5. The Whale Problem: 2% of Wallets Control 50% of Bitcoin
Just 2% of Bitcoin addresses hold over 50% of the supply (BitInfoCharts).
The top 100 wallets own more Bitcoin than the bottom 100 million combined.
Whales manipulate the market with pump-and-dump schemes, while retail investors get rekt in every cycle.
→ This isn’t decentralized money. This is a rigged casino where the house always wins.
*6. The Irony: Bitcoin Is More Surveilled Than Traditional Finance
Bitcoin was supposed to be an escape from the banking system—but it’s just a worse version of it:
Slower (10-minute blocks vs. instant cash).
More expensive ($50 fees vs. $0 for cash).
Less private (public ledger vs. untraceable cash).
More centralized (mining pools, exchanges, whales vs. local banks).
→ You traded real financial privacy for a digital illusion of freedom.
7. The Ultimate Scam: "Decentralization Theater"
Bitcoin’s real decentralization is a marketing gimmick to keep you invested while:
Miners, exchanges, and whales extract wealth from retail.
Governments and corporations use the blockchain to track and control financial activity.
The narrative of "freedom" keeps you holding the bag while the insiders cash out.
→ You were sold a revolution. You got a surveillance network with a ticker symbol.
What’s Actually Decentralized? (Hint: Not Bitcoin)
If you want real financial sovereignty, here’s what beats Bitcoin:
✅ Physical cash – No ledger, no tracking, no middlemen.
✅ Gold & silver – No transaction history, no KYC, true store of value.
✅ Privacy coins (Monero, Zcash) – Actually untraceable transactions.
✅ Local barter & trade – No blockchain, no surveillance.
Bitcoin is not the future of money. It’s a centralized, surveilled experiment that enriches the few while fooling the many.
Final Verdict: Bitcoin Is a Centralized, Censored, and Controlled System
Mining? Controlled by a few corporations.
Validation? Run by cloud providers and exchanges.
Ownership? Most Bitcoin is held by whales and custodians.
Privacy? Worse than a bank account.
You’ve been fooled. The "decentralized revolution" was just another Wall Street trap—and the joke’s on you.
→ Wake up. The emperor has no clothes.
NASDAQ:COIN NASDAQ:MSTR TVC:GOLD TVC:SILVER NASDAQ:MARA TVC:DXY






















