BItcoin: Recent history relative to priorOn the basis of earlier probabilistic map (which captured how price is being governed by golden rule on a bigger scale) , I'd look for same relationship to interconnect the chart on the short-term too. So at this point it's also important
One of the earlier significant price developments would include the fact of bottoming late 2022 after the fall of -77%. Since currently the price is way above those levels, it allows the use of the line which connect covid and 2022 bottom. We also established that connection of two bottoms defines the wavelength 983 Days, thus the direction of that line can be used as axis of deviation plotted with fibs.
The direction of the fall of -77% can be used to define the frequency of cycles from late 2022.
Together they produce another interference patten that defines the uncertainty of the market. (Just to recap: The direction of fibs with shallow angle defines Price Deviation. Steep angle of direction defines the Time aspect of the waves. The steeper the angle the more it relates to timing.)
BTCETH.P trade ideas
BUY BTCUSD now for bullish trend continuation BUY BTCUSD now for bullish trend continuation ...............
STOP LOSS: 114,393
This buy trade setup is based on hidden bullish divergence trend continuation trading pattern on the daily time frame ...
Always remember, the trend is your friend, so whenever you can get a signal that the trend will continue is good for you to be part of it...
TAKE PROFIT : take profit will be when the trend comes to an end, feel from to send me a direct DM if you have any question about take profit or anything...
Remember to risk only what you are comfortable with...
Still Bullish on Bitcoin — Loading the Dip at 98KBitcoin Long-Term Bull Thesis with Accumulation Perspective
From a macro perspective, Bitcoin continues to demonstrate its role as the premier hard asset in the digital age. The long-term structural trend remains intact — higher highs, higher lows, and a steady expansion of institutional adoption all reinforce the bullish thesis. As capital flows into the space and Bitcoin cements its narrative as “digital gold,” I remain a firm supporter of its trajectory toward significantly higher valuations over the coming cycles.
That being said, no uptrend is without healthy corrections. Markets breathe, and Bitcoin is no exception. Should we see a pullback, my eyes are firmly on the $98,000–$100,000 zone. This level aligns with a key confluence of prior trendline support and mid-range accumulation structure on both the higher-timeframe weekly chart and the lower-timeframe 4H structure. In professional trading terms, this is where value buyers are likely to step in, absorbing supply and reloading positions for the next leg higher.
In essence, my stance is unchanged: I remain a long-term Bitcoin bull. A correction, if it comes, is not a threat to the bigger picture — it is an opportunity. For those who understand the long-term story, the $98K area represents a strategic accumulation zone, a chance to strengthen positioning in an asset that I believe is only in the early chapters of its global adoption curve.
Summary: Long-term bullish, unwavering in conviction. If the market grants a correction, the $98K zone is where smart money will be waiting.
BTC Elliott wave analysis 9/16 /2025Is Bitcoin’s Cycle Ending, or Just Another Correction?
BTC made a new all-time high last month, followed by significant selling pressure. This raises the question: Has the BTC cycle ended, or is this just another corrective wave before another push higher?
In my view, BTC has already completed its cycle since the bear market ended in November 2022, based on the following factors:
1. Wave Structure Suggests Completion of Wave 5
From my primary scenario, the 5-wave cycle beginning after the November 2022 bear market is as follows:
Cycle Wave I: Nov 21, 2022 – Apr 14, 2023
Cycle Wave II: Apr 14, 2023 – Sep 11, 2023
Cycle Wave III: Sep 11, 2023 – Jan 20, 2025
Cycle Wave IV: Jan 20, 2025 – Apr 9, 2025
Cycle Wave V: Apr 9, 2025 – Aug 14, 2025
Within Cycle Wave V, we can clearly see wave 1 and wave 3 of the initial impulse, followed by a correction (wave 4), and then a final 5-wave sequence. This last push shows signs of exhaustion: although wave ④ (part of wave 5) lasted nearly a month, the market struggled to achieve new highs. This behavior suggests that buying pressure is exhausted and Cycle Wave V may have ended.
2. Post-High Wave Structure
The decline after BTC’s all-time high could be interpreted as the start of a new impulse down, or as part of a complex corrective structure such as WXY or WXYXZ.
We need further confirmation, but one thing is clear: after the upward correction completes, another downward wave should follow, either to complete the correction or as wave 3 of a larger bearish impulse.
Micro Analysis
Based on my Elliott Wave count, it seems BTC has completed wave II or wave b.
This is confirmed not only by Gann fan resistance, but also by the divergence on the abrupt wave 5 in the 4-hour chart, which was followed by a strong downward move. This implies BTC has already entered wave III, or has at least completed its correction.
If this current impulse is indeed wave 3 of a larger downtrend, the target for wave V would be around $81,000, supported by a Crab harmonic pattern projection.
Forex market opening and its impact on BitcoinAs we mentioned in our analysis, Bitcoin had entered a range, and we said that we could trade inside it using the range strategy. We also noted that whichever side the range breaks, the price would encounter one of the zones marked with yellow circles, and we should be careful about fakeouts and a possible return into the channel. Now the price has reached that zone, and at the moment it’s not suitable for a short position until we get strong confirmation. My personal opinion is that the price will go up and then return back into the range. ✅
BTC PERPETUAL TRADE SELL SETUP Short from $113,950BTC PERPETUAL TRADE
SELL SETUP
Short from $113,950
Currently $113,950
Targeting $112,800 or Down
(Trading plan IF BTC go up to $115k
will add more shorts)
Follow the notes for updates
In the event of an early exit,
this analysis will be updated.
Its not a Financial advice
Bit Coin Short Term bearishThis chart presents an Elliott Wave analysis of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) on a 4-hour timeframe, shared by Wave Count Pro. The pattern shows a complex corrective structure unfolding within a well-defined channel, with key turning points labeled as A, B, C, D, and a projected E.
Currently, price action is approaching a critical decision zone around $117,211.36. The analysis suggests two potential scenarios:
Bullish Breakout: If the price breaks above the $117,211.36 resistance, it could trigger a strong bullish move toward the upper trendline, targeting around $140,218.55 (labeled as point E).
Bearish Rejection: A failure to break above this level could lead to a pullback toward the lower boundary of the channel, possibly completing a wave (e) before a potential rally.
Key Levels:
Buy Above: $117,211.36
Sell Below: $113,966.84
WaveCount Pro
Gautam Khanna
BTC Pullback Before ATHBTC had a great run and needs to cool off a bit before further continuation to the upside. I suspect a retracement to the ~101k .618 fib, which will act as strong support. If we lose this level, I predict that we fill the FVG and put in a higher low around ~97-98k. After that, we're off to the races; expect to see a new ATH for BTC.
BTCUSD – Watching 114 774 Support After Weekend TP HitWeekend bearish target was met and the first profit zone is complete.
Now the key is whether price can keep the 4-hour candle body above 114 774.
That level is the line in the sand.
I’ll look for 15-minute confirmation before any long entry.
New York open could give a sharp spike in either direction—stay alert.
Trade the reaction, not the prediction.
BTCUSD-BUY PROJECTIONBTC looks quite bullish on the daily timeframe after we saw a successful break above the $112k zone. Technically, we can see a clear trend reversal from daily bearish trend to bullish trend after the market formed an inverse head and shoulder pattern around the $108k level. I anticipate more bullish price action to develop once we get a break and close above 116782.74 I believe more buyers are likely to step in.
BTCSome more TA that should last longer than two days. maybe to the end of the week.
lets watch.
Remember when price is above the (FS) FrontSide levels, they have an expectation to hold as support until an accumulation trend can be created. This means we are looking for engulfing accumulation candle (Inv.BS level) to create the accumulation range and trend. If those candles are struggling to form, the liquidity isn't in the range or not on the timeframe shown.
when price is above a BackSide level, it has an expectation to strongly impact price. If not, then liquidity is likely at the FrontSide Level.
Same goes for the Inverse BS and Inverse FS levels but they act as resistance when price is below them.
BTC 2017-2018 Bull Run Overlay on 2025-2026At first when I was projecting the BTC bull run for this round ('25 - '26) I was expecting around 120k. Once we hit 120k it didn't feel like euphoria, not even close. Also, considering the RSI we are not over bought. I was expecting the RSI to hit 90 before this bull run was on the decline. I don't use fractals that much, but I did this for fun to see what could possibly happen. What I believe is pretty compelling is the 70k bottom of support. I do strongly feel that the last 69k bull run top will be the new support. Will we hit 450k with BTC this round? I do believe it's entirely possible.
Let me know your thoughts.
Bitcoin - Will Support Hold?📢 NFX Market Update – COINBASE:BTCUSD
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD bullish rally recently hit resistance at $116,500, and price is now testing the $114,800 support zone. This level is acting as a strong psychological support, following the earlier break through the block order.
The key question: Will this support hold, or will price dip further toward the ascending channel support and the 200-day SMA?
My outlook: I believe support will hold. Price may briefly test lower levels - likely just a few wicks - before resuming higher.
🎥 More details in the video.
BTC BIG SHORT Why Bitcoin Might Fall: Potential Risks and Market DynamicsBitcoin (BTC), the flagship of the cryptocurrency market, has long captured the attention of both investors and speculators. However, Bitcoin’s price does not always follow an upward trend and can experience significant declines. So, what are the reasons behind a potential drop in Bitcoin’s price? In this article, we will explore the key factors that could trigger a downturn in Bitcoin’s value.1. Macroeconomic Factors and Global Economic UncertaintyBitcoin, often referred to as "digital gold," is heavily influenced by global economic conditions. For instance:Interest Rates and Monetary Policies: When central banks, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), raise interest rates, demand for risky assets tends to decrease. Higher interest rates may push investors toward cash or fixed-income assets, reducing the appeal of volatile assets like Bitcoin.
Inflation and Recession Concerns: During periods of high inflation or economic downturns, investors may need liquidity and sell off Bitcoin to convert their portfolios to cash, creating downward pressure on its price.
Strengthening U.S. Dollar: Bitcoin often exhibits an inverse correlation with the U.S. dollar. When the U.S. dollar index (DXY) rises, Bitcoin’s value may face pressure.
2. Regulatory PressuresCryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, are under the scrutiny of global regulators. Bitcoin’s price is directly affected by regulatory developments:Restrictive Laws: Some countries may impose restrictive regulations on cryptocurrency usage. For example, China’s 2021 bans on crypto trading and mining led to significant drops in Bitcoin’s price.
Tax and Reporting Requirements: Increasing tax regulations or transparency requirements for crypto transactions could cause individual and institutional investors to exit the market.
Stablecoin and Exchange Regulations: Regulations targeting stablecoins or major crypto exchanges could lead to liquidity issues and panic selling in the market.
3. Technical Factors and Market ManipulationBitcoin’s market is heavily influenced by technical analysis and trader behavior:Large-Scale Sales (Whale Movements): Large Bitcoin holders, known as "whales," can trigger price drops by selling significant amounts, often sparking chain-reaction sales.
Liquidity Crises: Low liquidity in crypto exchanges can amplify the impact of large sell orders, causing sharp price declines.
Exited BTC 08/25/25Fully exited position by the end of August. According to my last idea on 9/5/24, the exit window was targeted from November 11, 2024 through October 20, 2025. We're a little shy of the closing date, but I sold a heavy first fraction of the entire bag on November 12, 2025 and then again in December with that initial spike to my sell target line around 94k at the top of the bull flag drawn on the September 5 idea. Failure to hold above 120k is close enough to that upper trend line for me. I'm fully out, and need to adhere to my original accumulation/distribution strategy regardless of how much further up this might go through the end of the year.
I will note that I have not seen a Pi-Cycle top signal, and the Fed is beginning to cut rates with the meeting today. Likely several other cuts to interest rates in the coming in the next 12 months. This could favor risk-on assets, but I think BTC looks weak, and will likely be a "sell the news" event. There is NO projected cross of the 111DMA and 350MAx2 price.
Because of this, I've copied this year's bull cycle (inversed) for a possible play through the end of next year. This is in keeping with the flattening of cycles and increased adoption into traditional financial vehicles. Next cycle strategy should see a new idea for accumulation by the end of 2026.
BTC/USD (4H chart Pattern).BTC/USD (4H chart) with Ichimoku cloud, breakout from a descending trendline, and projected targets marked.
Based on the chart I have shared:
Immediate support zone: around 113,500 – 114,000 (aligned with cloud support).
First target point: around 120,000 USD.
Second extended target: around 124,000 USD.
So, the bullish path shown is:
👉 Support at 113,500 → Break above 116,000 → First target 120,000 → Next target 124,000.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin vs USD).BTC/USD (Bitcoin vs USD)
Timeframe: 2-hour (2H)
Indicators: Ichimoku Cloud, Trendline, Support/Resistance zones
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📊 Indicators Used
1. Ichimoku Cloud
Price recently broke above the descending trendline and is pushing into the cloud.
If it sustains above the cloud, that signals a potential trend reversal from bearish to bullish.
2. Support Zone (Green box)
Around 109,000 – 110,000 USD.
This is the base where buyers are stepping in.
3. Trendline Breakout
A downtrend line has been broken, suggesting the end of the short-term bearish momentum.
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🎯 Targets (Based on my chart)
Target 1 (short-term): 117,173 USD
This is the first major resistance level.
Target 2 (medium-term): 123,000 USD
Next strong resistance zone and the final target marked on my chart.
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⚠ Stop-Loss Suggestion
Below the support zone: ~108,500 – 109,000 USD
This protects against a false breakout.
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✅ Summary
Breakout above downtrend line and moving into Ichimoku cloud = bullish signal.
First target: 117,173 USD
Second target: 123,000 USD
Stop-loss: Below 106,000 USD
Bitcoin Whales Selling at $115K–$125K: Market OutlookBitcoin Whales Selling at $115K–$125K: Market Outlook
The crypto market has entered a critical stage as Bitcoin consolidates in the $115K–$125K zone. On-chain data shows whales unloading massive amounts of BTC, ETF inflows slowing, and retail traders stuck underwater. The big question: is this distribution or accumulation?
Whale Distribution in the $115K–$125K Zone
Recent on-chain data confirms wallets holding 1,000–10,000 BTC sold around 116,000 BTC in the last 30 days, worth nearly $13B. This marks the largest whale sell-off since July 2022.
Whales use sideways chop to distribute gradually without triggering panic.
Market makers unload in the $115K–$125K zone, hiding footprints on charts.
Without strong new inflows, demand cannot absorb this selling pressure.
This sideways action matches the Wyckoff distribution phase, where whales offload supply to retail.
Retail Traders Still Underwater
Most retail longs and spot entries are between $117K–$122K over the past 3 months. Many remain in mild loss but haven’t capitulated yet.
Small panic sells occurred near $107K in early September, but not a major shakeout.
This leaves a dangerous setup: retail holds, whales sell, and once support breaks, cascading liquidations are likely.
Are Altcoins a Real Rally or Exit Liquidity?
While Bitcoin chops sideways, altcoins have pumped aggressively. The so-called “altcoin season” has sparked excitement, but evidence suggests a trap:
Over 70% of alts are outperforming BTC temporarily.
The strongest gainers are newly listed, exchange-driven tokens with no fundamentals.
High leverage in alts makes them fragile.
History shows alt rallies during Bitcoin distribution often serve as exit liquidity for whales.
Technical & On-Chain Evidence
Accumulation/Distribution Indicator
The A/D line is falling despite stable price action → clear distribution pattern.
ETF Inflows and Market Liquidity
After strong July inflows, Bitcoin spot ETF demand has slowed to ~500 BTC/day. Without consistent inflows, whales dominate supply.
Whale Netflows to Exchanges
Exchange inflows spiked in late August → whales are actively sending coins to sell.
Key Strategic Takeaways
Zone Implication Strategy
$115K–$125K Heavy whale distribution Take profits or hedge shorts
$110K–$106K Weak support, liquidity zone Risk of cascading sell-offs
$90K–$100K Major liquidity pool Potential long-term buy zone
Final Market Outlook
The $115K–$125K range is not accumulation — it’s distribution. Whales are unloading into retail optimism, while altcoin pumps provide distraction.
Unless ETF inflows return strongly, BTC risks a correction below $110K, with liquidity extending down to $90K. Retail celebrating small bounces in this zone may be acting as exit liquidity.
⚠️ Not financial advice. Educational content only.