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Bitcoin / Ethereum Perpetual Inverse Swap ContractBitcoin / Ethereum Perpetual Inverse Swap ContractBitcoin / Ethereum Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract

Bitcoin / Ethereum Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract

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BTCETH.P trade ideas

Bitcoin analysisAfter Friday’s news that came out negative for the U.S. dollar and boosted Bitcoin and altcoins, Bitcoin is currently moving within a range. In this situation, on the 15-minute timeframe, there are two possible approaches: 1. Trade based on the range strategy. 2. Wait for a channel breakout. **Note:** For a breakout, be very careful around the two zones marked with yellow circles, because you might think the range has broken and enter a position, while in reality there is strong support or resistance there, which can cause a fakeout and push the price back into the range. You must get solid confirmation before considering it a real breakout. **Note:** Since the Forex market is closed, the market may show many fake and illogical moves. Therefore, using a tight stop-loss is not recommended. ✅
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by PouyanFa
5
The Bear Market Compass: BTC's 2-Sigma Rejection# The Bear Market Compass: BTC's 2-Sigma Rejection Signal ## Proven Sellers Established (Points 1→3) The market structure crystallized when Point 2 closed below Point 1 , establishing proven seller territory. This breakdown to Point 3 confirmed sellers' control over the market. Now at Point 4 , price has returned to test these proven sellers' resolve. ## The Three-Month Bear Market Context We're not looking at an isolated pattern - this is occurring within a three-month bear market : • One month of sharp downtrend • Three months including sideways/down action • Clear lower highs and lower lows pattern This context transforms Point 4 from a potential breakout to a likely bull trap - a relief rally within a broader downtrend. ## The Oversold Paradox At Point 4, we see: • Price: Lower high formation • RSI/MFI: Both oversold This creates the "oversold paradox" - indicators showing exhaustion but at resistance rather than support. When oversold conditions can't push price to new highs, it reveals fundamental weakness. ## VWAP 2nd Deviation Rejection Anchoring VWAP at Point 1 reveals the critical signal: price closed outside the 2nd standard deviation then pulled back . This sequence suggests: • Initial thrust above 2-sigma failed to hold • Statistical extreme rejection (95% probability zone) • Unless price shows immediate strength, this marks a local top The pullback from 2-sigma without continuation higher is a classic reversal signature. ## Multiple Technical Warnings Bollinger Band Test: Price testing upper band in bear market context OBV Trendline Break: Potential break indicating selling interest increasing Volume Profile: Resistance cluster at Point 2 level ## Chaos Theory Probability Edge The Chaos Theory indicator provides a 59% probability of reaching 114,767 . This isn't just a target - it's a mathematical edge that: • Confirms the VWAP reversal signal • Provides clear stop above Point 2 • Offers exceptional 1:6 risk/reward potential ## Risk Management Framework Entry: Current levels (115,865) Stop Loss: Above Point 2 resistance (117,998) Target: 108,000 (Chaos Theory zone - approximately 1:6 R:R) Probability: 59% according to Chaos Theory Position Advantages: • Three-month bear market context • VWAP 2-sigma rejection • Mathematical probability edge • Clear invalidation above proven resistance ## The Bear Market Compass In bear markets, rallies to resistance are gifts for shorts. This setup combines: 1. Structural resistance (proven sellers) 2. Statistical extremes (VWAP 2-sigma) 3. Momentum exhaustion (oversold at resistance) 4. Mathematical edge (59% Chaos probability) 5. Trend alignment (three-month downtrend) --- Key Insight: When a three-month bear market produces a rally that reaches VWAP 2-sigma resistance while oversold, then immediately pulls back, you're likely witnessing the end of a relief rally, not the start of a reversal. The 59% Chaos Theory probability with 1:6 R:R makes this an asymmetric opportunity.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by jacesabr_real
BTCUSD Under Pressure! SELL! My dear friends, My technical analysis for BTCUSD is below: The market is trading on 11678 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 11582 Recommended Stop Loss - 11735 About Used Indicators: A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TRADENATION:BTCUSDShort
by AnabelSignals
1
BTCUSDBullish Arguments for BTC/USD Institutional adoption Bitcoin ETFs and regulated investment vehicles are attracting steady inflows, creating consistent demand. Large asset managers are gradually increasing allocations, giving BTC legitimacy in traditional finance. Macro backdrop (monetary policy) Expectations of Fed rate cuts weaken the dollar and lower bond yields, which tends to benefit alternative assets like BTC. In a low-yield environment, investors search for higher-beta assets, and BTC often rallies. Supply dynamics The halving event earlier this year reduced new supply issuance by 50%. Historically, halvings are followed by multi-month to multi-year bullish cycles, as supply shrinks while demand continues. Digital gold narrative BTC increasingly behaves as a hedge against inflation, fiscal deficits, and currency debasement. Growing central bank debt and fiat skepticism fuel interest in scarce assets. Technical structure BTC remains in a long-term uptrend with higher lows forming. Key resistance levels near recent highs are being tested; a breakout could open the way to new all-time highs. ❌ Bearish Arguments for BTC/USD Regulatory risks Governments could tighten rules on exchanges, wallets, or crypto transactions. Legal or compliance issues around stablecoins, DeFi, or taxation could weigh on sentiment. Liquidity / risk appetite In risk-off markets (stock selloffs, flight to safety), BTC often drops alongside equities. If global risk sentiment deteriorates, BTC may struggle despite long-term fundamentals. Stronger USD / higher yields If US inflation stays sticky and the Fed delays cuts, a stronger USD could hurt BTC. Rising bond yields reduce the appeal of speculative assets. Volatility & profit-taking BTC often sees sharp corrections after big rallies. Profit-taking from institutions and whales can trigger 20-30% retracements even in a bull trend. 🎯 Technical Zones to Watch Support: Around $58K–60K (short-term), deeper support near $52K–55K. Resistance: $68K–70K (recent highs); if broken, $75K+ could open as next psychological target. Trend: As long as BTC holds above $58K, the medium-term structure remains bullish. 📌 Summary Bull case: ETF inflows, halving supply shock, Fed easing expectations, and strong adoption narrative keep BTC in an upward bias. Bear case: Stronger USD, regulatory uncertainty, and profit-taking could trigger sharp but possibly temporary pullbacks. Trade approach: Buy dips into strong support zones, with stops below major swing lows. Upside targets include retests of highs and potential new all-time highs if momentum continues.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Trading-Addicts
On-Chain Analysis: Understanding the Real Behaviour of BTC & ETHHello everyone, trading crypto isn’t just about looking at charts. To stay ahead, you need to understand the actual behaviour of holders, large capital flows, and buying/selling pressure – and that’s the power of on-chain analysis. 1️⃣ MVRV – Profits Reveal Market Sentiment MVRV = Market Value / Realized Value. Simply put, it shows the average profit/loss of holders. High MVRV → many holders are in profit → risk of selling increases. Low MVRV → many holders are at a loss → the market is more likely to bounce. Practical example: BTC dropping to a low MVRV zone during a long-term uptrend is often a good entry, because weaker holders are less likely to sell and price can rebound. 2️⃣ NUPL – Market Psychology in a Single Number NUPL = Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, measuring total unrealized gains or losses of holders. NUPL > 0.6 → market is greedy, pullbacks likely. NUPL < 0 → market is fearful, cheap buying opportunities emerge. Combining NUPL with price action and volume helps you choose buying/selling moments wisely and avoid FOMO. 3️⃣ Whale Activity – Tracking Big Players Monitor large wallets (usually ≥1,000 BTC/ETH). Moving coins to exchanges → potential selling → price under downward pressure. Moving coins to private wallets → supply decreases → price may rise. Watching whale activity ahead of major moves helps spot real trends, which ordinary charts might not reveal. 4️⃣ Exchange Inflow/Outflow – Let the Money Speak Large inflow → more BTC/ETH on exchanges → higher selling pressure, price drops. Large outflow → coins withdrawn → supply tightens, price tends to rise. Combine this with trend, breakout points, and crypto news to confirm upcoming moves. 5️⃣ Application Tips No single on-chain metric is a guaranteed signal. The strength lies in combining them: MVRV + NUPL + whale activity + inflow/outflow + price action + volume. Example: BTC enters a low MVRV zone, NUPL < 0, whales withdraw → potential buying zone, confirmed by H4/D1 chart breakout. Wishing you all successful trading and profitable sessions!
CRYPTO:BTCUSDEducation
by EmmaChartist
7
BTC chart analysis – my assessment Wave A was completed on September 1, 2024, and we are currently in wave B. Wave C within the B structure is currently being extended. I expect a correction (wave 4) down to the green support zone, which also contains important Fib levels and a lot of liquidity. I then expect a final upward movement to around USD 120,000. If this mark is broken on a sustained basis, I believe there is a high probability that we are no longer in a B correction, but already in wave 1 of the final wave 5. Until then, however, I expect a correction in the coming days or weeks. Why a correction is likely: The interest rate decision is due on September 17. I expect a cut, as the economy is weakening and inflation remains an issue. Historically, markets have tended to react bearishly to interest rate cuts, as these steps are seen more as a rescue measure. My scenario: First, there will be an increase to around $120,000 (market maker move), followed by a pullback to the range between $107,000 and $98,000. There is a lot of liquidity there. My first planned purchase range is between $107,000 and $106,000. From there, I expect a recovery and the formation of the final wave 5 by the end of the year. This could be followed by a major correction, partly in response to the late interest rate policy. What do you think—could this scenario be plausible? Best regards, Trading Architecture
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Jorgebatista8twcp
1
BTCUSD: Consolidation will ContinueHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Bitcoin setup. Market Analysis From a broader perspective, the market for Bitcoin has shifted from a trending phase into a wide consolidation Range. This occurred after the price broke down from a prior Upward Wedge, signaling a pause in the bullish momentum and establishing the current boundaries between the 107700 Support and the 119000 Resistance. Currently, the price has completed a full rotation from the bottom of this Range and is now approaching the major horizontal Resistance at the 119000 level. This is a historically significant area that has repeatedly capped rallies and acted as a strong barrier for buyers. My Scenario & Strategy I'm anticipating that the price will make a final push into the 119800 - 119000 Resistance Zone. The key signal I'm watching for is a clear rejection from this area, confirming that sellers are still in control at these prices and that another rotation downwards is likely. Therefore, the strategy is to watch for this rejection at the top of the Range. A confirmed reversal would validate the short scenario. The primary target for this downward rotation is 111000 points, an intermediate level within the Range where a price reaction could be expected. That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by Ratner
10
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 12, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the preceding trading session, the Bitcoin market demonstrated an upside resurgence, ultimately completing Inner Coin Dip 116500. Subsequently, the cryptocurrency is experiencing a recommencement of intermediary Primary Down-Trend rebound with the main target being Mean Support 113500, and additional extensions marked as Mean Support 111500 and 108300, respectively. Current analysis suggests a slight possibility that the Intermediate Primary Rebound may extend towards Key Resistance at 123500, potentially leading to a retest of the completed Outer Coin Rally at 124500. It is crucial to emphasize that the Semi-completed Outer Coin Dip at 102500 signifies the principal ongoing downtrend and accurately reflects the prevailing market sentiment. Upon the completion of this phase, it is anticipated that Bitcoin will resume its bullish trajectory.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
BTCUSD 4H – Demand Zone Swing Long SetupBTCUSD is holding at a strong demand zone near 114,000, where buyers previously stepped in. This area offers a possible long swing opportunity with upside potential toward 117,300, while risk is managed below the demand zone. The reasoning comes from market structure, demand–supply dynamics, and visible buyer reaction. Key Levels: Buy Entry: 114,000 Take Profit 1: 115,200 Take Profit 2: 117,300 Stop Loss: 111,000 Reason for Trade: BTCUSD has broken out of its sideways consolidation and flipped 114,000 from resistance to support. The structure shows higher lows and bullish momentum, suggesting continuation to the next liquidity zones at 115,200 and 117,300. Disclaimer: Educational purpose only. Not financial advice.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by SwingTrade_Concept