BTC to the MOONIt has been observed that BTC is continuously struggling at the price because of upcoming and outgoing news...
This only increase the volatility
You just need to focus on your levels
BTCETH.P trade ideas
BITCOIN (BTCUSD): Bullish Rally Confirmed?!
As I said yesterday, Bitcoin managed to violate a key daily
resistance cluster, and we have a confirmed bullish Change of Character CHoCH now.
Analyzing intraday time frames, I see a strong bullish confirmation
after a retest of a broken structure on an hourly time frame.
We can expect growth now.
First goal will be 115000.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
BTCUSD – Fresh Short Setup Inside Supply Zone
Bitcoin has reached a confluence of Daily + 4H supply zones , marked in the red band, after a weak reaction from demand areas over the past two weeks. Instead of showing follow-through strength, the market is struggling to sustain higher levels – a classic indication of buyer exhaustion and renewed seller aggression .
On the 4H and Daily charts, structure has shifted towards weakness:
• Lower highs and lower lows remain intact.
• Supply zones are respected while demand zones are failing to generate momentum.
• Price is now testing overhead supply, offering a clear short entry opportunity.
Trade Plan:
• Bias: Short
• Entry Zone: Within the highlighted red supply band
• Stop-Loss: Just above the supply zone
• Targets:
• First objective: 106,500
• Extended target: 103,000
This setup provides a tight stop relative to the potential downside , creating a favorable risk-to-reward profile. With the path of least resistance currently tilted lower, sellers have the upper hand.
BTCUSD – Pyramiding Long into Strength
We are adding a second long position in Bitcoin around $111,000, after our initial entry near $100,000 earlier in June , continuing to pyramid into the prevailing uptrend.
The structure remains extremely constructive: each impulsive leg higher is being followed by a prolonged consolidation phase, showing strong absorption of supply and price acceptance at elevated levels. This type of price action typically reflects a healthy uptrend, where the market is sustaining higher value areas before the next expansion move.
As long as Bitcoin continues to hold our Daily & Weekly Demand Zone threshold levels of $105,000 , the momentum bias remains firmly bullish. The next measured target lies around $135,000, aligning with the upper extension zone of the current trend.
Risk management remains key, but the trend and consolidation behavior favor continuation to the upside.
Bitcoin – Trend Update Ahead of PPIBitcoin – Trend Update Ahead of PPI
Hello Traders,
The current picture for Bitcoin is unfolding broadly in line with expectations, with the uptrend continuing to build momentum. Price movements are backed by solid volume, and the overall structure is developing as anticipated.
Key Levels
The price has cleared the 113k area, confirming that the bullish trend remains intact. This strengthens the probability of completing the final leg of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern.
The next area to monitor is around 116k, where a modest reaction or short-term pullback could occur before the trend resumes towards the 121k region.
Close attention should be paid to the 117k level, as this represents the potential completion of the inverse head-and-shoulders structure. At this point, price may consolidate before establishing a fresh primary trend.
Trading View
For the moment, it remains important to follow the prevailing uptrend. Any shift in market structure will call for re-assessment, with updated strategies to be applied only once clear confirmation emerges.
This is my latest outlook on Bitcoin ahead of the PPI release. I trust this perspective will assist in shaping your trading approach.
US Federal Reserve Policy & Global Interest RatesPart I: The Role of the Federal Reserve
1. Origin and Mandate
The Federal Reserve was created in 1913 to stabilize the U.S. financial system after frequent banking crises. Today, its core mandate, often referred to as the dual mandate, is:
To maintain price stability (control inflation).
To achieve maximum employment.
Unlike some central banks (e.g., ECB, which focuses mainly on inflation), the Fed balances growth and stability.
2. Policy Tools
The Fed has three primary tools:
Federal Funds Rate (FFR): The short-term interest rate at which banks lend to each other. Adjustments to the FFR ripple through the economy, affecting borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, and corporate credit.
Open Market Operations (OMO): Buying or selling government securities to manage liquidity in the financial system.
Reserve Requirements: Minimum reserves banks must hold (rarely changed now).
Since the 2008 financial crisis, new unconventional tools have been added:
Quantitative Easing (QE): Large-scale bond purchases to inject liquidity and lower long-term interest rates.
Forward Guidance: Communicating future policy intentions to shape market expectations.
Part II: How Fed Policy Shapes Global Interest Rates
1. The Dollar’s Dominance
The U.S. dollar is used in over 85% of global foreign exchange transactions and is the world’s leading reserve currency. This means when the Fed changes rates, it directly impacts the global cost of capital.
2. Capital Flows and Emerging Markets
When U.S. interest rates are low, investors look abroad for higher yields, often pouring money into emerging markets (India, Brazil, Indonesia, etc.). When the Fed raises rates, capital tends to flow back into the U.S., pressuring emerging market currencies and raising borrowing costs.
Example: The 2013 Taper Tantrum, when the Fed hinted at reducing QE, triggered massive outflows from emerging markets, weakening their currencies and forcing many to raise domestic interest rates to protect stability.
3. Global Bond Yields
U.S. Treasury bonds are the global benchmark for “risk-free” assets. If U.S. yields rise (due to Fed tightening), global bond yields also tend to rise as investors demand comparable returns. This impacts corporate debt, mortgages, and sovereign bonds worldwide.
4. Exchange Rates and Trade
Higher U.S. rates make the dollar stronger. This hurts exporters in countries like Japan, South Korea, and India (whose currencies weaken), but helps U.S. consumers by making imports cheaper.
Part III: Historical Case Studies
1. The Volcker Era (1979–1987)
Paul Volcker, then Fed Chairman, famously raised interest rates to nearly 20% to combat runaway inflation. This caused a U.S. recession but restored price stability. Globally, developing nations faced debt crises because their dollar-denominated loans became unpayable at higher rates.
2. Dot-Com Bubble and 2001 Recession
After the dot-com crash, the Fed cut rates sharply to support the economy. Low global interest rates encouraged borrowing and fueled asset bubbles in housing markets around the world.
3. 2008 Global Financial Crisis
The Fed slashed rates to near zero and launched QE. This flooded the world with cheap liquidity, boosting global markets but also encouraging excessive risk-taking in emerging economies.
4. 2013 Taper Tantrum
When the Fed signaled an end to QE, global markets panicked. Emerging market currencies crashed, and many central banks had to raise interest rates defensively.
5. COVID-19 Pandemic (2020–2022)
The Fed again cut rates to zero and launched massive QE, injecting trillions into the system. This stabilized markets but also fueled inflation globally.
6. Inflation and Rate Hikes (2022–2024)
As inflation surged to multi-decade highs, the Fed raised rates aggressively from near zero to over 5%. This had global consequences:
Borrowing costs rose worldwide.
Currencies like the Indian Rupee and Japanese Yen weakened.
Dollar-denominated debt in developing nations became more expensive.
Part IV: Global Interdependence of Interest Rates
1. Major Central Banks and Fed Influence
ECB (Eurozone): Often follows Fed moves but balances inflation with fragile growth in southern Europe.
BoJ (Japan): Maintains ultra-low rates due to deflationary pressures, but Fed hikes force it to intervene to protect the yen.
PBoC (China): Sets its own path but faces currency depreciation when the Fed tightens.
RBI (India): Often compelled to adjust policy to stabilize the rupee and control imported inflation when Fed acts.
2. Interest Rate Differentials
Investors exploit differences between U.S. and global rates through carry trades (borrowing in low-yielding currencies like yen, investing in higher-yielding assets). Fed policy shifts can reverse these flows quickly, destabilizing markets.
3. Debt Vulnerability
Many emerging nations borrow in U.S. dollars. When Fed hikes occur:
Dollar strengthens.
Debt servicing costs rise.
Sovereign default risks increase (e.g., Sri Lanka in 2022).
Part V: Current Global Dynamics (2024–2025 Context)
High U.S. Rates: As of 2025, Fed policy remains restrictive, keeping rates elevated to ensure inflation is under control.
Divergence Across Economies:
U.S. and Europe are tightening.
Japan is only slowly exiting negative interest rates.
Emerging markets are balancing between growth and inflation pressures.
Global Debt Stress: Record-high global debt (over $300 trillion) makes the world highly sensitive to Fed policy.
Dollar Liquidity Premium: With global uncertainty, investors continue to seek U.S. assets, reinforcing the Fed’s influence.
Part VI: Risks and Challenges
1. Inflation vs. Recession
The Fed’s challenge is to cool inflation without causing a deep recession. If it overtightens, global growth suffers.
2. Currency Wars
Countries may intervene in foreign exchange markets to protect competitiveness when the dollar strengthens.
3. Financial Stability
High rates can trigger bank collapses (as seen in Silicon Valley Bank 2023) and strain weaker economies.
4. Geopolitical Factors
Wars, trade tensions, and energy crises interact with Fed policy, complicating interest rate alignment globally.
Conclusion
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s policies are the anchor of the global financial system. Whether through rate hikes, cuts, or balance sheet operations, Fed decisions ripple across borders, influencing global interest rates, capital flows, exchange rates, and debt sustainability.
History shows that when the Fed tightens, global borrowing costs rise and emerging markets feel the pinch. When it loosens, liquidity floods the world, sometimes fueling bubbles.
As of 2025, the Fed’s balancing act between inflation control and economic stability continues to define the trajectory of global interest rates. For investors, policymakers, and businesses worldwide, keeping a close eye on the Fed is not optional—it is essential.
Bitcoin targets liquidity at 117K before CPI data impact📊 On the daily timeframe, BTC has broken above the key resistance zone around 113K–114.5K, showing strength. Currently, the market is eyeing the 117K liquidity zone as the next potential target.
🔍 On shorter timeframes, the structure suggests momentum is tilted upward, while the longer timeframe still hasn’t confirmed a higher high. This makes the upcoming move critical in deciding whether BTC can finally establish a new higher high or not.
💡 The outcome hinges on today’s CPI inflation data. A favorable CPI print could fuel a rally toward 122.5K, while a neutral or weak print might only push BTC to test liquidity near 117K.
⚡ All eyes are now on September 17th when the Federal Reserve interest rate decision will follow this CPI release. That verdict will set the broader direction for BTC and the entire market.
As of now, probability leans toward liquidity grab around 117K, with extended potential toward 122.5K if macro data aligns bullishly.
BTCUSD – Post-ATH ABC Correction, Upside Push in Play(Unfortunately, my original post with the exact entry was hidden due to a house rule violation. This repost only shows a later entry, as I had to publish it again after the fact.)
After reaching its all-time high, BTCUSD formed an ABC retest on the daily, with an internal ABC correction inside the daily C-wave. This structure may trigger a new upside push to retest ATH areas.
For now, I’m only interested in a quick long setup on the 4H chart:
• Target: 1 ATR
• Stop loss: 2 ATR
Confluences supporting the setup:
• Trend breaks confirming upside momentum
• Major support levels (not drawn here, but aligned in analysis)
• Elliott wave count aligning with bullish continuation
• Oscillators (RSI, MACD, Stoch) pointing to market strengthening
This bias gives me a high-probability entry, with my 0.5R target strategy consistently delivering over 80% win rate.
Disclaimer: This idea is for educational purposes only. Please do not place trades solely based on this setup.
BTCUSD BUY IDEAPrice is bullish from the H1 timeframe. I expect a retrace to the already market support level in the chart. Which from there, I anticipate more bullish price action to develop.
BTCUSD POSSIBLE BUY SETUP -----118K Break of Structure (BOS): Multiple bullish BOS indicate a trend reversal from bearish to bullish.
Change of Character (CHoCH): Confirmed trend shift early on.
Descending trendline broken: Signaling the end of bearish momentum.
Price broke above resistance (~$113,250): Now acting as a support zone (highlighted in green).
Current price: ~$114,272
Bullish target zone: Between $116,000 – $118,000, marked in maroon.
Range-Bound Rocket: BTC’s Coiled Spring Between S1 and R3-ATHRange Bound Rocket: BTC Loaded and Coiled for $120k Retest
Description:
BTC is now trading around $114,260, still inside the range I’ve flagged earlier. We reloaded at our previously posted support zones between $110k and $111k. That gives us a strong base.
I’m watching for acceptance above the $113k to $114k red box, which overlaps with the neckline of a potential reverse Head & Shoulders on the 4‑hour chart. It hasn’t triggered yet but we are in validation mode. (expecting a retest to 113k and then a break up) If we get a breakout with volume expansion and wide‑bodied candles, I’ll treat that as a valid activation. Target remains $119k and above.
This table shows how likely BTC is to stay above certain price levels over the next two weeks based on current volatility. These are not predictions, they represent statistically expected ranges based on price behavior.
2WK/Probability, Price Level, Meaning
90%, ~$96,700 BTC is very likely to stay above this level
75%, ~$103,200 BTC has a strong chance of staying above here
50%, ~$111,000 This is the midpoint, BTC has equal chance of being above or below
25%, ~$119,400 BTC has a one in four chance of closing higher than this
10%, ~$127,400 Only a small percentage of outcomes put BTC above this level
Key takeaways:
BTC is currently trading around $114,260, sitting just above our red resistance zone at $113,000 to $114,000.
Our first upside target, $118,000, lines up with the top 25 to 30 percent range of expected outcomes. This is reachable if the broader market stays supportive.
$120,000 sits closer to the top 20 percent threshold. BTC would need strong momentum and favorable macro data to push there in the next two weeks.
Downside probabilities
While the structure looks bullish, we should still consider these potential retracement levels:
Around 46 percent chance BTC dips below $110,000
Approximately 43 percent chance it drops under $109,000
Roughly 30 percent chance BTC trades below $105,000
These downside paths are consistent with our S2 and S3 support zones, which were successfully defended during the last major pullback.
What I'm doing and suggest :
Breakout confirmation:
I’m looking to add above $113k to $114k only if volume expands and candles show conviction, meaning minimal wicks and strong closes. Weak volume or upper wicks mean the breakout could fail. Main stop is back inside the range. Scalpers can use a tighter invalidation below $112.2k.
Reload zone:
A move into $110k to $109k is a statistically common retest. I’ll look for buyer defense and fading downside pressure to reload.
Volatility risk:
I'm already positioned long from our previously posted support zones around $110k to $111k, so I’m not actively adding or hedging right now. Into CPI and the Fed, I’m staying hands-off unless we get a clear breakout or strong market signal.
For those not in position:
Avoid chasing breakouts before the event
Look for confirmation or reaction post-data
If we get a volatility spike, retests of $110k to $109k are still statistically common and may offer a better entry
The goal is to avoid being overexposed heading into binary catalysts. I’m holding my current spot exposure and letting the trade breathe.
If no breakout forms:
I expect BTC to remain in a range between $111k and $118k. Support zones from prior posts maintained a bullish bias. If BTC consolidates below $114k but keeps forming higher lows, I’ll consider that ongoing accumulation.
Catalysts to monitor:
Nasdaq or NQ breakdown
• Tech strength: Nvidia up ~30% YTD on strong Blackwell Ultra demand, ADI and MX showing strength despite macro headwinds.
Jobless claims rising again
• U.S. jobless claims are rising to 237K, signaling labor market cooling. Continuing claims are easing but job additions in August were weak at just 22K. Recent wide downward revisions (~911K fewer jobs year-to-date) reinforce rate‑cut bets.
Geopolitical risk
• Geopolitical tensions remain tail‑risks.
Fed rate tone and CPI reaction
• Fed tone and CPI outputs are increasingly important as data is tilting soft and markets are pricing in easier policy.
• The USD’s trajectory matters. Further weakness helps BTC and tech space gain more cushion.
Tech remains a key driver. AI and semis continue to lead Nasdaq strength, and BTC still tracks equity moves closely. A soft dollar also reduces market drag and supports upside potential.
Don't miss the final BTC Rocket of this cycle !!!When it dips, get ready to jump in! BTC is about to moon this cycle 🚀 See you at $124k!
No more retesting $104k — even breaking below $107k looks tough now. Get ready to ride the final wave of this cycle!!! 💰
If you don’t have any position yet, now's a good time to enter your first one. BTC just broke through the legendary EMA200.
As for me, I’ve been buying and selling along the way, locking in profits during this uptrend.
Spot portfolio’s running, options are live, and the futures with x20 leverage — I’m running it, but trying not to get too reckless 😛
For those already holding — stay strong and enjoy being rich.
#BePatientStayCalm #LifeHackTrader
BITCOIN Will Move Higher! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for BITCOIN.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 114,261.88.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 115,993.92.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
BTC-USD Trade Insight 📢 NFX Trade Alert – Swing Setup
💹 Instrument: BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Bitcoin (BTCUSD.r)
🛒 Trade Type: Swing – Buy at Market
📍 Entry: $113,750
⛔ Stop Loss: $112,500
✅ Target Profit: $123,000
Analysis:
BTC has reclaimed bullish momentum, forming a bullish flag right above the key ascending triangle breakout level. Price structure remains strong, with buyers stepping in around the $114k zone. These dynamics reinforce our trade bias, keeping the upside toward $123k firmly in play.
BTCBitcoin is expected to move higher, with the next bullish target around the 123,000 level. Traders should follow the momentum and watch for confirmation signals.
