Bitcoin Daily likely towards $100K1). Hit Trend-line resistance. 2). Dropping on a 5-wave sequence. 3). Dropping pitch is steep with momentum. 4). Trump's China Tariffs were the US$ strength catalyst, which is the other side of the equation!
Trade ideas
Monthly Analysis: Bitcoin (BTC), Issue 279 The analyst expects Bitcoin’s price to decline by the specified end time (countdown timer), based on quantitative analysis.
The take-profit level simply represents a potential price range during this period — it’s optional and not a guarantee that the price will reach it.
You don’t need to go all-in or use leverage to trade wisely.
Allocating only a portion of your capital helps keep overall risk low.
Our approach follows institutional portfolio management principles — not the “all-in or blow-up” style often promoted on social media.
Performance is evaluated over the entire time window, regardless of whether the take-profit level is hit.
The validity of this analysis is based on a specific time range (until 01 Dec 2025), and after this period, the analysis will be reviewed and updated (once every 28 days).
Today's Bitcoin Trading Strategy1.Big players are quietly selling
In the past few days, "wealthy individuals" who hold a large amount of Bitcoin (such as accounts that can transfer hundreds at a time) have been transferring more Bitcoin to the exchange - the exchange is where they sell the currency. This indicates that they may want to cash out at the current price. Meanwhile, small retail investors are buying. This "big players selling, small retail investors buying" situation often leads to a downward trend in prices.
1.The rebound stalls at a key position
Previously, the price couldn't rise further after rising from $107,000 to around $109,000. It tried several times but failed to break through $110,000. It's like climbing halfway up a mountain and being blocked by a big rock. The effort to climb higher becomes smaller and smaller, and it is likely to retreat.
1.Market sentiment is not so optimistic
Previously, everyone thought the price would continue to rise, but recently the number of people who wanted to "bet on the rise" has decreased - for example, some bought "contracts that can make money when the price rises", but now the number of such contracts is less than before, while the number of "contracts that can make money when the price falls" has increased, indicating that many people have started to think that the price may fall.
Today's Bitcoin Trading Strategy
sell：109000-110000
tp:108000-107000
sl：111000
Today's Bitcoin Trading StrategyUS stocks "lagged behind", and Bitcoin followed suit in decline.
The correlation between Bitcoin and US technology stocks has always been high. Recently, US technology stocks suffered a significant drop due to poor performance (the Nasdaq index fell by 2.8% in 3 days), and Bitcoin was also dragged down along with them. It's like two balloons tied together; if one falls down, the other cannot fly either. More importantly, expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts have weakened - previously, it was thought that there would be frequent rate cuts, but now it's believed that it might take longer, and slower rate cuts mean less "cheap money", making risky assets like Bitcoin more prone to being sold off.
Today's Bitcoin Trading Strategy
sell：108000-109000
tp:107000-106000
sl：110000
Today's Bitcoin Trading StrategyThe price trend has shown a "double top reversal"
When looking at the K-line chart, it is clearly visible that Bitcoin previously rose to a high of $12.6， then fell back and tried to rise again， but failed to exceed the previous high， forming an "M" shape (which is what people call a double top). This is like climbing a mountain. The first time reaching the top without stabilizing caused a fall， and the second time climbing， although close to the top, lacked the strength to go up, so it could only slide further down. Now the price has fallen below the middle low point of this "M" shape， indicating that the downward trend is very obvious.
The external environment has worsened， and Bitcoin cannot withstand it
Recently， the global market has been unstable. For example, trade policies have changed, and there are concerns that inflation will rebound. Everyone starts to buy gold， US dollars and other safe-haven assets, while they are less inclined to touch risky assets like Bitcoin. Moreover， the "expectation of interest rate cuts" that supported Bitcoin's rise has weakened. People are unsure if there will be further interest rate cuts in the future， and no one dares to buy Bitcoin boldly. The price naturally lost the momentum to rise and was more likely to be pushed down by selling pressure.
Today's Bitcoin Trading Strategy
sell：108000-109000
tp:107000-106000
sl：110000
BTCPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.
Enjoy Trading ;)
BTCUSD 15m – Breakout from Bullish FlagPrice tapped into a strong demand zone (106.7k – 107.3k)
Formed a bullish flag after liquidity sweep
Breakout confirmed with solid bullish momentum
Targeting 109.3k short-term
Setup valid above 107.0k
Bitcoin Trades Within Defined Channel — Liquidity Below $100KBitcoin continues to move within a well-defined trading channel, with the range high at $126,000 and the range low sitting just below $100,000. This clear structural formation highlights a period of controlled consolidation, where price oscillates between two major liquidity zones.
Given the current positioning, momentum favors a rotation toward the range low, as bearish liquidity builds below the current trading area. This potential sweep of downside liquidity would align with Bitcoin’s typical range behavior — taking out weak lows before initiating another expansion phase back toward the range high.
Key Points:
- Range Structure: Well-established channel between $126K (high) and sub-$100K (low).
- Liquidity Bias: Bearish liquidity beneath current levels increases probability of a move lower.
- Range Continuation: Liquidity sweep below $100K could fuel the next rotation upward.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains range-bound, but the next significant move will depend on how the market reacts around the $100K liquidity pocket.
What to Expect:
Expect a short-term dip toward sub-$100K levels as liquidity is cleared, followed by a potential rotation back toward $126K to maintain the broader range structure.
COULD BTC HAVE COMPLETED İTS MAJOR CYCLE?As can be seen from the BTC chart, the major expanding triangle pattern appears to be complete. On the chart, point 5-5 corresponds to point 2 on the Fibonacci timeframe. While a deep decline at point 1 on the Fibonacci timeframe doesn't necessarily mean a similarly deep decline at point 2, we can consider this as supporting our argument.
In the current situation, I believe it would be inappropriate to talk about a new rise unless the upper band is broken. In light of all these wave principles, price accumulation at support levels should be observed.
Please note that this projection, created for professional traders, is a probability based on new wave scenarios and carries the risk that the price may move outside our expectations. This is not investment advice.
BTC UpdateDaily indicators are still bearish but the 3 hr says RSI is oversold so we should see a bounce today. BTC hit the support zone. Not to mention DAX is up.
Maybe daily MFI doesn't work? Certainly didn't match the direction last week.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin vs USD) chart Pattern..BTC/USD (Bitcoin vs USD) chart 👇
🧭 Timeframe:
I'm using the 1-Day (D1) chart — so this is a medium-term setup, not intraday.
---
📊 Technical Overview:
Price is currently around $107,400.
A major ascending trendline (support) has been broken downward — bearish signal.
Ichimoku Cloud shows resistance above price, confirming bearish pressure.
I have blue arrows and “Target Point” levels marked below current price — indicating a downside projection.
---
🎯 Target Zones (as shown in my chart):
1. First Target Point: around $100,000 – $101,000
→ This is my initial bearish target after the trendline break.
2. Second Target Point: around $94,000 – $95,000
→ This is my extended target zone if the bearish trend continues.
---
⚠ Key Levels:
Type Level (USD) Comment
Resistance 114,000 – 115,000 Strong rejection area inside cloud
Break Zone / Entry Below 107,000 Confirms bearish continuation
Target 1 100,000 – 101,000 First take-profit zone
Target 2 94,000 – 95,000 Final target zone
Stop-Loss 115,000 – 116,000 Above Ichimoku cloud
---
📉 Summary:
Trend: Bearish
Entry Idea: Sell below $107,000 daily close
TP1: $100,000
TP2: $94,000
SL: $115,000
BITCOIN 's worst Uptober in 11 years. Will selling continue?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just closed October on a -3.89% loss, marking only the second red October since 2018 (-3.83%) and the worst since 2014 (-12.95%). This comes against the popularized 'Uptober' moniker, which relates to BTC's historically strong gains for this month.
So what's next? Things may get even worse if BTC repeats the Jan - Feb 2025 fractal and breaks below its current Higher Lows trend-line. As you can see, since the August 14 2025 High, the market has been on a similar pattern as December 2024 - February 2025.
Right now we are on the rejection made on the Lower Highs 2 trend-line (blue circle) on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. With the first Lower Highs 2 rejection being similar among the two fractals (around -17%), we can expect an equally symmetrical sell-off if the Higher Lows break.
On February 24 2025, that break-out completed a -32% fall from its All Time High (ATH) just below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. If the Higher Lows break-out does happen on the current sequence as well, we may see another -32% decline, which this time is exactly on the 2.0 Fib ext. This time we have the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) to be mindful of, where we can expect contact to be made around $87000.
Do you think BTC can dip this low? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Bitcoin Market Cycle Outlook – My Personal View (2025–2026)I believe the bull market is not over yet.
We’re currently in a mid-cycle correction / consolidation phase, not the start of a bear market.
The most probable scenario in my view:
Cycle peak around December 2025 – January 2026,
with a potential top in the $150 000 – $180 000 range before the market transitions into a new downtrend.
This is not financial advice, just my personal analysis and opinion based on cycle behavior and macro context.
Trade safe and manage risk!
The digital gold - BTC weekly update Nov 03 - 09thBitcoin shows a pretty similar structure to the alts, just in another context. The overall picture is that we are now in a larger corrective movement where we could drop to 40k again. The structure in the lower timeframes, as shown on the chart, show that a short-term rise is possible in the next days and weeks. Over the past week and the drop today we completed the flat pattern of the primary wave B with the completion of the intermediate wave C. For now therefore I expect the Bitcoin to perform a turn and a rise to the fibonacci extension levels shown on the chart. This scenario is supported by the correlation with other coins, the liquidation heatmap showing a bunch of liquidity above the current price and funding rates being lower than normal. RSI shows itself also near the oversold range and MACD turned only slightly negative during this drop. Overall this shows us a good environment to rise to 117k.
Alternatively a further drop below the low of the intermediate wave A would be possible, but as fibonacci levels of the elliott wave principle do not support these deep niveaus anymore, I think a turn is probable.
Bear market incoming, confirmation below the 200 EMAThe bear market has arrived, right on schedule according to historical cycle timing. We’re now 566 days post-halving—previous cycles peaked at 548 and 525 days—making this an impressive run with 681% gains from the market bottom. For the first time since the last bear market, accumulation is dropping, mirroring prior cycle patterns. BTC has repeatedly failed to break long-term resistance and now appears set to retrace toward the $40,000 trendline over the next 18 months. The rise in short positions, combined with surging long interest, signals the last phase of optimism before likely liquidations. Stocks and commodities are hitting all-time highs but are beginning to show signs of retreat, especially amid the AI bubble narrative. Non-AI stocks, such as Games Workshop (NFA), may present stronger opportunities. Bearish divergence on the BTC chart, declining trading volume, and stable exchange balances suggest low liquidity could trigger a sharp sell-off. ETF holders are taking profits and will likely continue as the bear market confirms itself. Another short-term rally could happen, but history shows BTC’s four-year cycles are deeply entrenched in market psychology. Trade safely. NFA.
Time to Valhalla or Hell!?!?Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading within a rising wedge, which is a bearish pattern—but only if it breaks below the lower trendline.
Crucially, we are currently trading below the 200-day Moving Average (MA), which is a very dangerous signal.
If we break below the rising wedge's support line and confirm that breakdown, we could see a massive and fast drop in the BTC price. Hell could open up, with the price dropping to $85k in just a few days.
We urgently need a bounce, and we need it now!
