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BTCMINI trade ideas
BTC Theoretical Forecast: Genesis Fib 111k > blow off top 130k?I am expecting one last pullback, targeting the 111,600 Genesis Fib - 108,500 is not out of the question either, before a possible charge towards 128k-130k. What happens after that is not certain, but I expect a sharp pullback.
This chart uses my 'Rayn Channels' system to explore this possibility. I hope everyone makes use of it in their own way and gets paid.
BTCUSD set to rise $124482?BTCUSD trade setup for today :
Before we look at potential entry in this pair first let’s look at multiple timeframe analysis in this market.
Monthly: 124482 Monthly resistance price has got rejection strongly from the top
Weekly: Price has just got just broken out of the support
Daily: Price on the daily significant support level
Entry timeframe 4H : Price has printed 4h has got rejected strongly from the daily support level.
Possible trade recommendation : Bullish trade with high probability set up
BTC daily chart with some historical stuff & moreSome major historical milestones since Covid, plus my current support and resistance levels.
Have you ever been, experienced? :)
BTC Analysis - August 20, 2025, 09:28 AM EDT 📊 Price: ~$114,016, consolidating after failing $120,000 resistance (24h).
Technical Analysis:
• Supports: $112,300, $108,000
• Resistance: $116,800, $120,000
• RSI: 46 (daily, neutral), 50 (4-hour)
• MACD: Bearish, histogram narrowing
• EMAs: Below 20-day ($117,300), above 50/200-day ($115K/$110K)
• Bollinger: Near mid-band ($115,400, daily)
Patterns:
• Ascending Channel: Retest of mid-channel ($114K–$115K, August 15–20)
• Bearish Pinbar: August 14
• Doji: August 19
On-Chain:
• MVRV Z-score: 2.2, neutral, nearing rally trigger
• Active Addresses: Up 3% (30d)
• CDD: Low, strong HODLing
• LTH Supply: 74% held >155 days
• STH Supply: Down 13% (30d), profit-taking
Fundamentals:
• M2: $107T (Feb 2025), 3.8% growth, 0.94 correlation with BTC
• ETFs: $15B inflows (2025), $0.8B weekly (August 15)
• Regulatory: GENIUS Act supports crypto (July 2025)
BTC Reserve: Exchange reserves down 10% (2025), low selling pressure.
Dominance: 61% (BTC.D), neutral, altseason if <63.2%.
Social Sentiment: 450K #BTC mentions on X, 55% bullish ( low volatility, dip-buying).
Trends: Neutral short-term, possible dip to $112,300. Long-term: $130K–$200K (2026).
Signal: Buy (60% confidence)
• Buy on dips: $112,300 or $108,000
• Stop-loss: <$108,000
• Target: $116,800 short-term, $130,000 (Q4 2025)
Disclaimer: Research before investing. #BTC
BTC support and resistance levels for recent swing tradingHourly chart. Just like anything else this can change depending on outside forces, but for the past 45 days or so it has served me well.
BTC 4hr back to beginning of 2024This goes with the other two charts I am publishing, it's kinda the "intermediate" one, the other two are the daily going back to pre-COVID and the hourly which I'm currently trading from.
BITCOIN BOTTOMING NOW ABC WAVE 4low The chart posted is that of bitcoin .Last week I stated atop can be counted once again .Now I see the high as wave 5 of 3 of 5 .This would mean that the last up leg is just ahead target 130 k plus or minus 2k this should end the bull run from 15,800 and much more serious decline is coming into OCT PANIC .Best of trades WAVETIMER
Bitcoin, Quick Update · Is The Retrace Over?We are looking at Bitcoin and we are tracking Bitcoin's movements but we trade mainly the altcoins. How Bitcoin behaves affects the altcoins market and how the altcoins market behaves reveals what Bitcoin intends to do next. The chart reveals what is happening and what is about to happen.
Bitcoin produced a low of $112,000 2-August. Today Bitcoin produced a low of $112,353. If $112,000 holds as support or remains unchallenged, we can have an early end to the present retrace. Several things to consider:
1) Trading volume is low and this can be considered good. It can happen that the retrace ends or the final flush is still upon us. In both scenarios everything unravels within the next few days. No more than a week.
2) Trading volume was really high on the bearish side late July but so far there is no follow through.
3) Seeing six days red yet only a small retrace is a positive signal. Again, it can happen that the final flush happens today and the market turns. Something to keep in mind; when a flash crash happens, we tend to think of this as the start of a major down-move but normally this is the end. It can happen that Bitcoin moves lower and that's it, it starts to grow again.
4) Seeing how the market lacks bearish pressure—and also how the small altcoins are performing—we are going with the bulls.
5) As long as Bitcoin trades above $110,000, we are bullish long-term. Above $112,000, ultra-bullish including the short-term. When Bitcoin is trading above $100,000, the bullish bias is confirmed. It doesn't matter how you slice it, the bulls have control of this chart. The trading price is the most important data point and right now Bitcoin's price is really strong.
If $112,000 holds, expect Bitcoin to grow.
Namaste.
BTC/USD – 1H | From Rejection Block to Breaker BlockBTC is consolidating around a rejection block at the lows while liquidity is sitting above at breaker block levels. Price is building for a decisive reaction.
📈 **Bullish Scenario**
* Hold above **112,800 – 112,400 rejection block**
* Push into **114,000 swing high**
* Break toward **115,600 OB zone → 116,900 breaker block / P1D High** 🚀
📉 **Bearish Scenario**
* Failure to hold rejection block
* Breakdown below **112,400 → 111,800 swing low**
* Further liquidity draw toward **111,200 lows** 📊
**Key Levels**
* Rejection Block: 112,800 – 112,400
* Swing High: 114,000
* OB: 115,600
* Breaker Block / P1D High: 116,900
* Swing Low: 111,800
* Strong Low: 111,200
💬 Will BTC respect the rejection block for a bullish drive, or break lower into deeper liquidity?
BTCUSD Trendline Break SetupThis chart presents a potential bullish scenario for BTCUSD on the 1-hour timeframe. After testing support around 112,821, the price looks ready to break above the descending trendline, which could trigger an upward move targeting key liquidity levels near 116,774 and beyond. The stop loss is set below recent lows to control risk, offering a favorable risk-to-reward setup.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading cryptocurrencies involves significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making any trading decisions.
From Record Highs to Fear: Bitcoin’s $113K Test!Bitcoin’s sharp decline below $113,000 has unsettled investors, coming just a few days after reaching new record highs. This drop was driven by a combination of global economic pressures, regulatory concerns, and weakening risk appetite. U.S. tariffs, investigations by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and disappointment in corporate artificial intelligence performance all weighed on market sentiment.
While fear dominates in the short term, the key question remains: does this mark the beginning of a deeper correction, or is it merely a temporary pullback within Bitcoin’s broader upward trend?
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is trading in a general downtrend on the 4-hour chart, forming lower highs and lower lows, which confirms the bearish momentum. The rebound from the 113,656 and 112,551 levels is considered corrective, targeting the 116,069 level, which represents an important resistance area with selling pressure that could push the price lower again toward 113,608 in the medium term. The bearish scenario, however, would be invalidated if the price rises above 117,033 and a 4-hour candle closes above this level.
Bitcoin - Between DXY Stagnation and S&P Support.⊣
⟁ BTC/USD – BINANCE – (CHART: H1) – (Aug 20, 2025).
◇ Analysis Price: $113,658.22.
⊣
⨀ I. Temporal Axis – Strategic Interval – (H1):
✴️ The framework integrates (BTC/USD, DXY, and S&P500), synchronized on the daily scale, with the objective of capturing macro-structural correlations between dollar strength, global risk appetite, and internal Bitcoin flows.
▦ EMA9 – $113,686.19:
∴ Serves as the immediate momentum barometer, reflecting short-term order flow;
∴ Currently below both EMA21 and EMA50, indicating bearish micro-structure dominance;
∴ Acts as the first dynamic resistance for intraday mean reversion attempts.
✴️ Conclusion: Bitcoin remains capped under the short-term pulse barrier, restricting upside elasticity.
⊢
▦ EMA21 – $113,831.53:
∴ Functions as the transitional equilibrium line, bridging short and mid-term dynamics;
∴ Price is consistently trading below, validating sustained bearish pressure;
∴ Convergence of EMA9 attempting to retest EMA21 suggests an imminent decision point.
✴️ Conclusion: Mid-term equilibrium remains bearish-biased unless price closes above EMA21 with volume confirmation.
⊢
▦ EMA50 – $114,642.27:
∴ Serves as the macro structural wall, separating correction from reversal;
∴ With BTC positioned significantly below EMA50, broader trend control remains with sellers;
∴ EMA50 flattening indicates exhaustion of downward acceleration, yet no bullish transition.
✴️ Conclusion: EMA50 is the critical pivot-structure stays bearish until reclaimed.
⊢
▦ BB (21, 2, basis = EMA9) – Basis: $113,831.53 / Upper: $114,436.52 / Lower: $113,226.53:
∴ Bands compressing, signaling imminent volatility expansion;
∴ Price oscillating at the lower half, underscoring downside pressure;
∴ Lack of expansion suggests market is in “coiled spring” mode.
✴️ Conclusion: Volatility compression precedes directional breakout-likely aligned with macro catalyst.
⊢
▦ RSI (21, 9) – 43.09:
∴ Sub-neutral, below the 50 threshold, denoting lack of bullish momentum;
∴ Recent stabilization around 40–45 implies consolidation rather than capitulation;
∴ Divergence checks show no strong bullish divergence yet.
✴️ Conclusion: RSI reflects persistent weakness; structure requires break above 50 to regain bullish momentum.
⊢
▦ MACD (9, 21, 9) – Line: 146.49 / Signal: –145.34 / Histogram: –291.83:
∴ Negative histogram, confirming momentum pressure remains bearish;
∴ Early convergence between line and signal suggests weakening downside impulse;
∴ Momentum is not yet shifting-still transitional.
✴️ Conclusion: Bearish momentum intact but with signs of deceleration.
⊢
▦ ADX (9, 21) – 39.36:
∴ Near the 40 level, confirming presence of a strong active trend;
∴ Directional movement favors the sellers, with dominance still intact;
∴ Slight ADX easing signals weakening conviction but not invalidated.
✴️ Conclusion: Bears remain in structural control, though trend intensity may soon wane.
⊢
🜎 Strategic Insight – Technical Oracle:
∴ The triangular interplay of macro (DXY flat, S&P mildly positive), technicals (BTC below EMA50, with compression in BB), and on-chain (short-term inflow pressure, elevated Open Interest, slightly positive funding) outlines a fragile structure;
∴ BTC is bearish in short-term structure, trading under all three EMA thresholds;
∴ Macro backdrop offers no relief (DXY neutral, equities only mildly supportive);
∴ On-chain flows highlight imbalance: exchange inflows suggest sellers may pressure further, while long-term reserves confirm structural scarcity.
⚔️ Oracle’s Seal: Unless Bitcoin decisively reclaims EMA50 with volume, the probability favors continued downside probes toward ($111,500 / $112,000). A break of inflow dominance paired with Open Interest flush would be required to reverse this structural bias.
⊢
⨀ Macro Support & Resistance (BTC/USD – H1):
Immediate Support: $113,200 – aligned with Bollinger Band lower boundary;
Secondary Support: $111,500 – historical liquidity cluster;
Immediate Resistance: $114,450 – BB upper boundary and EMA50 confluence;
Macro Resistance: $116,000 / $118,000 – prior weekly rejection zone.
⊢
∫ II. On-Chain Intelligence - (Source: CryptoQuant):
▦ Exchange Inflow: Elevated activity clusters, signaling potential sell pressure;
▦ Exchange Outflow: Neutral-to-mild accumulation, not offsetting inflows;
▦ Funding Rate: (+0.007), indicating slight long bias persists, vulnerable to liquidation;
▦ Open Interest: ($40.8B), elevated, increasing risk of amplified moves via derivative liquidations;
▦ Exchange Reserve: (2.531M Bitcoin), structural downtrend, indicating long-term supply depletion.
⊢
🜎 Strategic Insight - On-Chain Oracle:
Despite long-term structural bullishness from falling reserves, short-term inflow spikes and elevated OI signal vulnerability to further corrections.
⊢
𓂀 Stoic-Structural Interpretation:
∴ The (BTC/USD) - ( hourly and daily structure remains in a compressed bearish phase ) - price is pinned beneath the EMA9, EMA21, and EMA50, all aligned downward, a trinity of resistance sealing momentum;
∴ Bollinger Bands reveal coiled volatility; pressure accumulates as if within a vessel of silence before rupture;
∴ RSI at 43 lingers in weakness; MACD histogram negative but converging - the storm slows but has not dispersed; ADX near 40 testifies the trend is still strong, though waning.
∴ On-Chain flows (CryptoQuant) whisper caution:
Inflows -> Outflows -> latent sell-pressure;
Funding slightly positive -> longs exposed to purge;
Open Interest elevated near $40B -> leverage imbalance;
Exchange Reserves declining -> long-term scarcity intact.
∴ Macro field - (DXY flat, S&P500) - provides no decisive impulse, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to its internal flows.
✴️ Conclusion within the Arcanvm Technical Framework:
∴ Bitcoin stands at the threshold of choice: beneath structural EMA's, with inflow pressure tightening the noose, yet with reserves eroding in the background - a paradox of short-term fragility, long-term scarcity;
∴ The Oracle speaks: only a reclaim of EMA50 with volume and Open Interest flush can transmute this silence into bullish expansion. Otherwise, descent toward the ($111,500 / $112,000) support remains the path of least resistance.
⊢
✦ Structure:
∴ Trend Alignment: (BTC/USD) remains beneath EMA9, EMA21, and EMA50 - a stacked bearish configuration confirming short-term, mid-term, and structural momentum aligned to the downside;
∴ Volatility Compression: Bollinger Bands (21,2) contract, signaling that volatility is storing potential energy - the market is in coil phase, awaiting a trigger;
∴ Momentum Profile: RSI lingers at 43, sub-neutral, reflecting lack of bullish force; MACD histogram negative but converging, portraying bearish momentum in deceleration; ADX at 39 validates that the bearish trend is still dominant, though losing intensity;
∴ Macro Overlay: (DXY flat, S&P500) marginally positive - no decisive macro catalyst to override BTC’s structural weakness;
∴ On-Chain Dynamics: Exchange inflows slightly outweigh outflows, funding rate positive, and open interest elevated near $40B -> a leveraged market with fragile long positioning. Exchange reserves continue structural decline -> long-term scarcity intact.
✴️ Conclusion: The structure is locked in short-term bearish fragility, confined under EMA barriers, with inflow pressure and leveraged longs creating risk of liquidation cascades. Only a decisive reclaim of EMA50 can shift the framework; otherwise, the gravitational path points toward ($111,500 / $112,000) supports.
⊢
· Cryptorvm Dominvs · MAGISTER ARCANVM · Vox Primordialis ·
· Dominivm Cardo Gyratio Omnivm · Silence precedes the next force. Structure is sacred ·
⊢
Bitcoin will bounce up from wedge to 117K pointsHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. The recent price action for Bitcoin has been complex, marked by a significant breakout from a prior downward channel that failed to produce a sustained trend, leading instead to the current corrective structure. This new market phase has taken the form of a large downward wedge, a pattern of contracting volatility that often resolves to the upside. The price has been making a series of lower highs and lower lows within this wedge, with the major buyer zone around the 113000 support level acting as a foundational floor. Currently, the price is in the final stages of this consolidation, making another descent towards the apex of the wedge. The primary working hypothesis is a long scenario, based on a potential 'fake breakdown' or liquidity grab below the established support. It is anticipated that the price may briefly dip below the 113000 support level to trap sellers before staging a sharp reversal. A swift reclaim of this level would be the ultimate confirmation of the bullish thesis, validating the wedge as an accumulation pattern and likely triggering a powerful breakout to the upside. Therefore, the TP for this reversal scenario is logically set at 117000 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
BTC/USD History Repeating Itself?Full disclosure, I'm not a huge fan of fractals, especially those resulting from black swan events over 4 years ago.
That being said, the BTC/USD weekly chart is starting to look worryingly similar to the 2021 top, as I'm sure many other analysts have also spotted.
The strong bearish RSI divergence is also cause for concern, as BTC heads down to retest its long-standing support level (white line).
Do I personally think history will repeat/rhyme this time? Mmm, I don't think so. Yes, we should anticipate further downside in the short-term. It is Summer after all. But with potential rate cuts due in September, war peace talks underway, and plenty of headroom left above in this cycle (according to the current MVRV score and Pi Cycle indicator), we could potentially see renewed optimism return end of September (NFA).
For the immediate term, a lot hangs in the balance of the upcoming Jackson Hole conference.
$BTC — I’ve entered a short position as the September rate cut CRYPTOCAP:BTC — I’ve entered a short position as the September rate cut looks more like a sell-the-news scenario than a bullish catalyst. I expect price to slide toward 110K first, with potential continuation down to 100K if sellers keep control. Market makers might still spike price into the 120K–125K zone before the dump, but overall structure suggests lower levels ahead.
🎯 BTC Downside Targets:
110K → 105K → 100K → 95K → 90K
BTCUSD 1H BULLS HAVE UNFINISHED BUSINESS :)Very strong area of SUPPORT/RESISTANCE @ around 115-116K. Bulls STRONG refuse to let this area go
With market now start to CREATE HIGHER LOWS (small time frame) give me good case for buying this dip
Hopefully we hit our target
Bitcoin's decline will continueBitcoin's recent trend is quite clear, clearly within a weak, narrow range. Ethereum, however, exhibits relatively greater volatility, offering greater room for maneuver.
Currently, Bitcoin is expected to maintain this range until at least the end of this month. Regarding Ethereum, the overall trend hasn't reversed. While there have been rebounds, the strength of these rebounds has been noticeably weak. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum prices remain within a downward trend. For short-term trading, we prioritize short positions on rebounds.
Short positions can be established around 113,500 for Bitcoin, with a target of 112,600.
Short positions can be established above 4250 for Ethereum, with a target of 4120.
Interesting Fib retrace info could help understand the next bear
Nessy chart initily but I have broken it down here and it will be easy to understand
Also, to make it ckearer to see, I have used a line for the PA..the retracements and % pull backs are accurately placed using the candles....
So, an interesting thing appeared when I was laying with Fib Replacements.
Simply put,
From 2013 ATH to the next Low was a -78.27 % pull back to the 0.236 Fib retracement
From 2013 ATH to the next Low was a -82.20 % pull back to the 0.382 Fib retracement
From 2013 ATH to the next Low was a -76.40 % pull back to the 0,5 Fib retracement
So, after each ATH, PA pulled back to the next step down from previous fib retracement, while pulling back approx the same %
Shuold Bitcoin do the same again, whichh would Scare a Lot of people, we could expect to see a pull back to the 0.768 Fib retracement...and using a near -80 % pull back, we would end up around 24K Low in Nov 2026
Will this happen ?
Who know and I doubt it but until things and patterns change in the way Bitcoin runs its 4 year cycles, then it is a possibility.
But I found it fasinating how yet anoterh sequence occured in the last 3 cycles that Bitcoin has performed.
Nothing else has ever done this.....
So, Lets see if it repeats
BTC RANGINGFirst, yesterday was one of the statistically rare times that bullish divergence fails on the Bitcoin chart, but it obviously happens. There was only a small bounce and both price and RSI made lower lows on the 4-hour chart.
Bitcoin has pulled back sharply from its recent local high at $123,231, where sellers stepped in aggressively and rejected price with a long wick to the upside and bearish divergence. That rejection has now pushed BTC below the 50-day moving average, flipping it into resistance for the first time since June.
The immediate battle is at $112,000 – a key level that served as resistance during the July breakout and is now being tested as support. If this level holds, bulls can regroup and make another push toward the highs. If it fails, the next major demand zone doesn’t come in until around $100,700, a level that absolutely must hold to preserve the broader bullish structure.
The good news – this still looks like a healthy correction within an uptrend. The market had run hot after July’s breakout, and profit-taking at resistance was inevitable. For now, the bull market structure remains intact as long as Bitcoin stays above six figures.
In short – the trend is still your friend, but the $112K line is the battleground. Lose it, and we’re likely staring at a deeper correction. Hold it, and $123K comes back into play quickly. We are ranging between those two levels.
BTCUSD Pressure Continues to the downsideMore bearish continuation patterns and an extension of the resistance trendline as price continues to fall. Keeping it simple with just basic price action confluence.
Keep Buying Bitcoin till BTC Reaches 1 Million USDNot a investment advice
As of August 20, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $113,800 with recent price drops of about 4-5% over the past week. Market sentiment appears cautious as long-term holders have started taking profits, which often happens when the price hits resistance levels. On-chain data shows significant movement from large holders and increased selling volumes in futures contracts, signaling some bearish pressure in the short term.
Expert analysis suggests that August might be a challenging month for Bitcoin, with sideways trading expected before momentum resumes. Some analysts project a mild price rebound going into late August and beyond, but overall the market is showing mixed signals with some uncertainty. The outlook suggests caution and waiting for a clearer trend before heavy buying.
"Buy the dip" strategies could benefit those with a high risk tolerance and a long-term outlook, but it carries risks given the current volatility and uncertain momentum. As always, investors should carefully consider their risk appetite and time horizon, given these mixed signals in the Bitcoin market currently
BTC/USD) Technical analysis Read The captionSMC Trading point update
Technical analysis of BTC/USD daily chart analysis you shared:
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Analysis Idea – Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
1. Key Resistance Zone (Yellow Box):
BTC faced multiple rejections from the highlighted resistance area (shown by red arrows), indicating strong selling pressure.
2. Trendline Break:
A clear break below the ascending trendline confirms weakness in bullish momentum and suggests a shift toward bearish structure.
3. EMA 200 (Blue Line):
The 200-day EMA at 103,179 acts as a dynamic support. If price continues downward, it will likely test this area.
4. Target Zone:
Bearish continuation points toward the 100,720 – 100,419 support zone, marked as the target point on the chart.
5. RSI (42.74):
RSI is trending lower, supporting bearish momentum but not yet oversold — indicating more room for downside before a potential bounce.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Idea Summary:
Bitcoin is showing signs of a bearish reversal after repeated resistance rejections and a trendline break. Price is likely to head lower toward the 100,700 region, with the 200 EMA providing possible short-term support.
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