BTCUSD.P trade ideas
btcWe are currently playing in the red and green zones. The promised day is near. Will we rise or fall?
BTC October MapScope: Neutral, educational context for $BTC. Not advice or a signal.
Context
• Seasonality: October often prints green for BTC; context, not a forecast.
• Policy/FX: Easing bias + softer USD supports risk; a USD spike or hawkish pivot is a headwind.
• Flows/Structure: Spot ETF net inflows persist; realized vol lower than pre-ETF regime.
• Positioning: Exchange balances sit below prior cycles; Q4 structure shows higher highs/lows.
• Primary risks: Policy shocks, regulation, geopolitics, broad risk-off.
Reference Levels (USD)
• Stretch support: 80,000
• Major support: 100,000
• Invalidation guide: 111,000 (daily close below = trend risk)
• Area of interest: 115,000–118,000 (reclaim + hold)
• Trigger band: 117,000–119,000
• Targets to study: 119,000, 136,500, 143,000
Note that “Entry” = area to monitor, not a market order. “Invalidation” = close beyond the level on your timeframe.
If/Then Map
Continuation
• If reclaim 117–119k -> hold on retest with stable volume -> map upside 136.5k -> 143k.
Pullback
• If reject 117–119k and lose 115–118k -> watch 100k.
• If 100k fails -> path opens toward 80k stretch.
Invalidation
• If daily close < 111k -> uptrend thesis at risk until reclaimed.
Method Notes
• Confirmation-first: Reclaim then hold before assuming continuation.
• Risk framing: Many cap single-idea risk at 1–3% to a hard stop.
• Scale plan: 40% at T1 -> 40% at T2 -> 20% runner; move stop to breakeven after T1.
• Global pause: Close below invalidation or sharp DXY spike -> reassess before new risk.
What Changes This View
• Macro: Clear hawkish shift or dollar surge.
• Structure: Loss of 111k on a closing basis.
• Flow: Sustained ETF outflows and liquidity deterioration.
Disclaimer: Informational only. No recommendations or guarantees. Verify data and follow platform rules, and please as always DYOR also.
Bitcoin Wave Analysis – 7 October 2025- Bitcoin reversed from the resistance zone
- Likely to fall to support level 117620.00
Bitcoin cryptocurrency recently reversed down from the resistance zone between the key resistance level 123240.00 (former strong resistance from July and August) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the earlier short-term impulse wave 3 from the end of September.
Given the strength of the resistance level 123240.00 and the overbought daily Stochastic, Bitcoin cryptocurrency can be expected to fall to the next support level 117620.00 (former top of wave 1 from September).
Bitcoin analysisIt’s true that Bitcoin’s overall trend is bullish, but I don’t think it’s the right time to buy just yet.If you’re trading on the lower cycle, the 120,400 level could be a good entry point for a short position.
Keep in mind that the higher cycle is strongly bullish, so there’s a high chance of a fakeout — proper risk management is essential, or you should enter with reduced risk. ✅
BTC/USD: Structure Shift Confirmed - Bearish CHoCH Break"The previous analysis highlighted the Minor and Major CHoCH levels as key lines in the sand for the recent uptrend. The market has now decisively broken BELOW both levels.
This action confirms a Bearish Change of Character in the market structure (on the chart), signaling a failure of the current bullish order flow.
1. Minor CHoCH Break: Confirmed the initial weakness and short-term pullback.
2. Major CHoCH Break: Confirms the structural shift, indicating that the corrective move is likely to be deeper than a simple consolidation.
We should now anticipate a shift in price action: making Lower Highs and Lower Lows. The previous support levels may now act as resistance. Looking for the next key demand zones for a potential bounce, but the immediate bias is now BEARISH."
BTC : REJECTION FROM CHANNEL TOPBTC is trading in a rising channel
Rejection from the channel top is clearly visible
Possibility to visit near channel bottom approximately 111000 zone
A risk to reward of 1:9
Keep SL near 125300
40% capital can be deployed.
Remaining position can be built slowly on lower low formation in hourly timeframe
Educational purpose only ..
BTC Probable price movement1. breaking the trend line may pull the price down
2. if sustains above may push the price up
Gold $4,000 - BTC $120,000Gold at $4,000 an ounce and Bitcoin at $120,000
It may take time or there may be a temporary price correction, but reaching this price is on the way for these two assets.
Sasha Charkhchian
BTCUSD Bullish Breakout supported at 122.414The BTCUSD remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective consolidation within the broader uptrend.
Support Zone: 122,414 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level.
A bullish rebound from 122,414 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at:
127,600 – initial resistance
130,040 – psychological and structural level
132,480 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break and daily close below 122,414 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward:
121,090 – minor support
119,140 – stronger support and potential demand zone
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact while the BTCUSD holds above 122,414. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
2030 BTC 1M Bitcoin is still trading near the bottom of its long-term logarithmic regression channel, representing asymmetric upside potential.
Each prior cycle bottom coincided with a similar deviation below the regression midline, followed by 10–20× expansions.
The market is structurally maturing, with institutional adoption, ETF inflows, and state-level custody discussions reinforcing the thesis that BTC is transitioning from a speculative asset to a global macro reserve asset.
From a probabilistic standpoint, the risk-reward asymmetry remains compelling.
BITCOIN’S $125K BREAKOUT · Is This the Real Cycle Top?Fundamental analysis:
Bitcoin just broke a new all-time high at $125,689, and unlike 2021, this move isn’t built on retail hype—it’s being driven by institutional force.
Massive ETF inflows flipped the trend completely, with nearly $7 billion entering U.S. spot funds in a single week. At the same time, exchange reserves have dropped to a seven-year low, and public companies now hold over 4 percent of total supply.
On-chain data shows that whales and corporates are accumulating, not trading, while stablecoin liquidity has surged by more than $6 billion, bringing fresh capital into crypto.
Technical analysis:
Bitcoin’s daily chart shows a textbook continuation of the long-term uptrend. After a mid-year consolidation, BTC broke decisively above the $120K–$123K resistance zone and is now establishing that range as support.
The 50-day moving average remains well above the 200-day, maintaining a golden cross formation that signals sustained bullish momentum. Price action has stayed comfortably above both trend lines, confirming strong market structure.
The next key resistance lies between $130K and $135K, followed by the major psychological target near $150K. On the downside, support sits around $114K, marking the line that would need to break to shift this trend.
Momentum indicators continue to favor the bulls. The MACD is climbing after hitting its lowest point since March, hinting at renewed upward energy, while the RSI is stabilizing above 50—indicating balanced but positive momentum.
The Fear & Greed Index currently reads 62 (Greed), up from 43 just a week ago, showing that investors are no longer skeptical. This time, market psychology is aligned with the charts: optimism is growing, not fading.
Historically, Bitcoin tends to peak roughly 18 months after each halving. With the most recent halving in April 2024, that timing points squarely to late November 2025 for a potential cycle top, coinciding with the current trend line projection near $150K.
Here is my recommendation:
EP 1: $123,443
EP 2: $124,475
EP 3: $120,000
Target 1: $130,000
Target 2: $135,000
Target 3: $150,000
Best,
The Crypto Fire
Bitcoin creating a higher high to confirm the UptrendAfter being surprised by a double bottom, I can now confirm that Bitcoin is now in Uptrend on the dominant trend direction chart
De-Dollarization and the Global Currency WarIntroduction: The Shifting Sands of Global Finance
For decades, the United States dollar (USD) has reigned supreme as the world’s dominant reserve currency — the central pillar of global trade, finance, and economic stability. From oil transactions to international debt settlements, the dollar became more than just a currency; it was the bloodstream of globalization. But in recent years, a strong wave of economic nationalism, geopolitical rivalry, and strategic diversification has begun to challenge this hegemony — a process known as “de-dollarization.”
Simultaneously, we’re witnessing an intensifying “currency war” — a global competition among nations to protect their economic sovereignty, control exchange rates, and reduce dependency on U.S.-led monetary influence. Together, de-dollarization and currency warfare are reshaping the financial map of the 21st century, with implications that reach from the energy markets of the Middle East to the central banks of Asia and Latin America.
This 2000-word analysis dives deep into the rise of de-dollarization, explores its causes and strategies, examines the mechanics of currency wars, and forecasts the potential shape of the next global monetary order.
1. The Roots of Dollar Dominance
After World War II, the 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement established the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency, pegged to gold at $35 per ounce. Other global currencies were tied to the dollar, making it the foundation of postwar economic stability. Even after President Richard Nixon ended the gold standard in 1971, the dollar retained its dominance because of its stability, liquidity, and the economic might of the United States.
By the late 20th century, the dollar had become:
The primary reserve currency, held by central banks worldwide.
The medium of international trade, particularly in oil (the “petrodollar” system).
The currency of global finance, underpinning stock markets, bonds, and derivatives.
In short, control of the dollar meant control of the global economic bloodstream — and this financial power translated into political leverage.
2. What Is De-Dollarization?
De-dollarization refers to the deliberate process of reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar in international trade, finance, and reserves. It’s not about completely abandoning the dollar, but about diversifying away from it to limit vulnerability to U.S. monetary policy and sanctions.
Countries and blocs leading this movement include:
China, promoting the yuan (renminbi) in global trade.
Russia, moving away from dollar-based settlements after sanctions.
BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, now joined by others) working toward a shared currency system.
Middle Eastern countries, exploring non-dollar oil transactions.
Latin America and Africa, forming regional trade agreements in local currencies.
The motivation? A mix of economic independence, geopolitical resilience, and strategic competition.
3. The Key Drivers Behind De-Dollarization
(a) U.S. Sanctions and Weaponization of Finance
The U.S. uses its control over global payment systems (like SWIFT and dollar-clearing banks) as a geopolitical tool. Nations such as Iran, Venezuela, and Russia have faced financial exclusion through U.S. sanctions.
This has sparked fear among emerging economies that dollar dependency exposes them to political risk — accelerating efforts to create alternative payment systems (e.g., China’s CIPS, Russia’s SPFS, and India’s RuPay/UPI cross-border systems).
(b) Rise of China and the Yuan
China’s economic growth and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have given the yuan increasing global exposure. Beijing aims to internationalize its currency by encouraging trade in yuan and developing offshore yuan markets (especially in Hong Kong, Singapore, and London).
(c) The BRICS Challenge
The BRICS alliance has emerged as a collective front against Western economic dominance. The bloc’s discussions around a BRICS common currency or a gold-backed trade settlement system indicate a long-term ambition to challenge dollar supremacy.
(d) U.S. Debt and Inflation
The U.S. government’s rising national debt (over $34 trillion) and the repeated use of quantitative easing have weakened confidence in the dollar’s stability. Countries fear that excessive dollar printing could erode their reserves’ value, prompting diversification into gold, the yuan, and other currencies.
(e) Digital Currencies and Blockchain
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) offer new pathways for global payments. China’s digital yuan is leading this race, aiming to bypass the traditional dollar-based banking infrastructure entirely.
4. The Mechanics of a Global Currency War
A currency war, also known as “competitive devaluation,” occurs when countries intentionally lower the value of their own currencies to boost exports, attract foreign investment, and reduce trade deficits.
How It Works:
By devaluing their currency, a country’s goods become cheaper abroad.
This can strengthen exports but also increases import costs and inflation.
When multiple countries engage in this simultaneously, global financial instability can follow — hence the term “war.”
Historical Examples:
1930s Great Depression: Nations devalued currencies to recover from economic collapse.
1980s U.S.-Japan tension: Japan’s yen appreciation reshaped global trade.
2010s “Currency War 2.0”: After the financial crisis, countries used ultra-loose monetary policy and quantitative easing to stay competitive.
Today, the modern currency war involves not just exchange rates but geopolitical influence, payment systems, and financial infrastructure.
5. De-Dollarization and Currency Wars: The Modern Battlefield
In the 2020s, de-dollarization and currency competition have become two sides of the same coin. The following arenas illustrate this growing conflict:
(a) Energy Markets
The traditional petrodollar system — oil sold in U.S. dollars — is under strain.
China and Russia have signed major energy contracts in yuan and rubles, while Saudi Arabia has hinted at accepting non-dollar payments for oil. The India-UAE rupee-dirham trade settlement is another example of regional diversification.
(b) Central Bank Reserves
According to IMF data, the dollar’s share of global reserves has declined from 70% in 2000 to around 58% in 2024, marking a slow but steady erosion. Central banks are increasing holdings in gold, yuan, and euro, signaling a rebalancing of trust.
(c) Cross-Border Settlements
Nations are exploring bilateral trade agreements in local currencies — for instance, India-Russia rupee-ruble trade, China-Brazil yuan settlement, and ASEAN nations’ local currency framework.
(d) Digital Currency Warfare
With the U.S. lagging in CBDC development, countries like China are pioneering digital payment systems that can function independently of SWIFT and U.S. banking oversight. This could redefine how international money moves in the next decade.
6. Winners and Losers in the De-Dollarization Era
Winners:
Emerging Economies – Greater autonomy over monetary policy and trade settlements.
China and BRICS Members – Enhanced global financial influence and regional cooperation.
Commodity Exporters – Ability to price goods in multiple currencies.
Gold and Digital Asset Markets – Investors view these as alternative stores of value amid dollar uncertainty.
Losers:
U.S. Financial System – Reduced demand for U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar may weaken the U.S. fiscal position.
Dollar-Debt Dependent Nations – Countries heavily indebted in dollars could face volatility.
Global Investors – Increased currency risk and reduced liquidity in traditional markets.
7. Is a New Global Currency Order Emerging?
While de-dollarization is gaining traction, a complete end to dollar dominance is unlikely in the short term. The U.S. still has unmatched advantages:
The deepest financial markets in the world.
Global trust in its institutions and legal system.
Military and geopolitical clout backing the currency’s credibility.
However, the trend is unmistakable — the world is slowly transitioning toward a multipolar currency system, where the dollar, euro, yuan, and possibly regional digital currencies coexist in a competitive balance.
Future trade blocs might operate on multi-currency platforms, and international reserves could become more diversified.
8. The Future: Cooperation or Confrontation?
The next decade could unfold in one of two broad scenarios:
Scenario 1: Cooperative Multipolarity
Nations collaborate through institutions like the IMF, BRICS Bank, and AIIB, building systems that support currency diversity while maintaining global liquidity. In this world, de-dollarization doesn’t mean destruction — it means balance.
Scenario 2: Financial Fragmentation
Geopolitical rivalry intensifies, creating currency blocs (USD-based, yuan-based, euro-based). Trade becomes more regionalized, and financial flows become fragmented. This could lead to volatility, capital flight, and higher transaction costs worldwide.
In either case, technological innovation — from digital currencies to blockchain trade settlements — will play a defining role in shaping monetary competition.
Conclusion: The Dawn of a New Financial Era
De-dollarization and the currency war are not isolated economic trends; they are strategic transformations redefining how power is distributed across nations. What began as a defensive move by a few sanctioned countries has evolved into a systemic global recalibration of monetary order.
The dollar will likely remain powerful, but its monopoly is fading. The 21st-century global economy may no longer be built around a single currency but around a network of competing and cooperating monetary systems.
For traders, policymakers, and investors, this means one thing: the world of finance is entering a new era — more decentralized, more digital, and more dynamic than ever before.
BTC 1DThe uptover was a month ago, in September when it was 109k. Now, I'm going short, I have my take profits in their liquidation positions
BTC USDHI GUYS
btc usd broke previous high around test area. i expected an (Hs) head shoulder pattern as confirmation for continuation sells.
currently btc is forming the Hs and i expect sells on level 1.414 / (127082.98)btc
Note. The monthly structure which i have never posted is begging for an Hs on its cup and handle Rt monthly .however the Daily and H4 Rt has a lot to accomplish .
lets focus on what is happening right now.
my idea suggests strong sells soon. whats yours?
BTC targets Different fib price targets. now its sitting at 1/8 of a million 125k . its also 2.5 trillion market cap. Above this price i see 131200 from 2x the yearly wick. then next would be 150k which is 3x the yearly down wick and also is 3 trillion market cap
Down side targets shown on the chart.
BTC OutlookPotential Move Toward 140K in the Long-Term Channel Expansion
BTC is currently trading inside an expanding ascending channel.
From my perspective, price is currently pushing toward a new local high, and there’s a strong probability we see continuation toward the 140K region in the mid-to-long term – assuming no major shift in macro or market sentiment.
Note: This is not financial advice. Always manage your risk and trade based on your own strategy.
BTCUSD DOWN FAILLHEllo I love you all and I love BTC too I thought that tis would be the way its going like the rest of my ideas come true.Im so tired to type so I will just leave this here.
NEW BITCOIN SET UP This is the latest bitcoin set up once the price hit back the green zone for a retracement the trend will continue bullish , let's stay focus
TA on BTC will go to 135k then down to 115 again...may be a bull flag to 135k with a rising wedge and as we know the rising wedge is berish, then it will go back down to 115k
Bitcoin - BTC - 4HBTC — 4H Chart 📊
Price is forming a reversed Double Bottom.
If the neckline breaks, I expect a bullish move with a new Higher High (HH).
However, if price fails at the neckline and breaks below the current resistance, there are two demand zones below that could hold and support a bullish continuation.
CAPITALCOM:BTCUSD
Bitcoin hits all-time high, altcoins follow suit!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has smashed a new all-time high, reaching $125,700! The rally is fueled by steady inflows into spot ETFs, rising institutional interest, expectations of a softer Fed policy, and growing demand for safe-haven assets. Additional tailwinds include tech upgrades across networks and a revival in trading activity. This historic milestone for Bitcoin has lifted the entire crypto market. Investors are turning their attention back to top-10 altcoins — names with strong recognition, loyal communities, and clear development roadmaps.
Ethereum (ETHUSD) — trading around $4,558.76. The network has undergone major upgrades, making wallets more user-friendly and transactions faster and more stable. Layer-2 solutions are gaining traction, fees are becoming more predictable, and the network load is better distributed. As a result, investor interest in ETH-based tools and its ecosystem continues to grow. If Ethereum’s roadmap stays on schedule, it could further strengthen its position as the go-to platform for decentralized applications.
Solana (SOLUSD) — around $233.30. The ecosystem is preparing a high-performance validator module aimed at significantly boosting speed and resilience. This is critical for high-traffic use cases like exchanges, gaming, and micro-payment services. Solana is also set to gain the spotlight during a major industry conference later this year — a typical launchpad for new partnerships, grants, and product announcements. If improvements are implemented successfully, Solana could gain more ground in the fast and low-cost transactions segment.
BNB (BNBUSD) — approximately $1,208.83. The network continues to cut costs for users and developers, expand its toolkit for launching apps, and maintain price stability through regular supply control. The easier it becomes to build and scale on BNB Chain, the greater the volume — and the stronger the token demand. With security and performance updates expected on schedule, BNB remains a top-tier infrastructure asset.
FreshForex analysts believe Bitcoin’s record high reaffirms the global appetite for digital assets, while strong developments across major altcoins add depth and resilience to the market. Q4 2025 could deliver solid returns for active buyers — with the most powerful surge expected in Q1 2026.
