Bitcoin - Bitcoin Left Behind the Stock Market!?Bitcoin is in its descending channel on the four-hour timeframe, between the EMA50 and EMA200. In case of an upward correction towards the specified supply zone, it is possible to sell Bitcoin with a better risk-reward.
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy in the demand range.
A group of U.S. lawmakers has called on the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to enforce an executive order issued by President Donald Trump that opens the door for cryptocurrency investments within the $12.5 trillion 401(k) retirement fund market. Signed in August, the order authorizes 401(k) plans to offer cryptocurrencies as a new investment option.
Members of the House Financial Services Committee, in a formal letter, praised the order for its potential to help Americans boost their retirement savings. They urged the SEC to work with the Department of Labor to update existing rules and guidelines, with the aim of enabling millions of Americans to gain access to such investment opportunities for their retirement.
The letter further stated: “We also ask the SEC to review the bipartisan bills currently advancing in the 119th Congress regarding accredited investors. We hope these measures will allow the 90 million Americans who are currently excluded from alternative investments to secure a more dignified and comfortable retirement.”
Meanwhile, the Senate Finance Committee announced that it will hold a hearing this week on the issue of digital asset taxation, as industry stakeholders continue to press for greater clarity in federal regulations.
According to Committee Chairman Mike Crapo, the session—titled “Examining the Taxation of Digital Assets”—is scheduled for October 1. The official notice confirmed that Lawrence Zlatkin, Vice President of Tax at Coinbase, and Jason Somensatto, Policy Director at Coin Center, will testify at the hearing.
The committee had earlier invited public comments on how existing tax laws should apply to digital assets and whether new legislative frameworks are needed. The upcoming session is expected to draw heavily on the recommendations of the White House Digital Asset Working Group, which urged lawmakers to recognize cryptocurrencies as a distinct asset class and establish tailored tax rules separate from those applied to commodities and securities.
From a market perspective, liquidation heatmaps in the futures market highlight clusters of leveraged positions at key levels. When the price fell between $114,000 and $112,000, a wave of long liquidations occurred simultaneously, leading to heavy wipeouts and accelerating the downward momentum.
Risk pockets remain around the $117,000 level, making both sides of the market vulnerable to liquidity-driven volatility. Without strong demand at these levels, fragility persists, increasing the likelihood of another sharp downward move.
BTCUSD.PI trade ideas
Bitcoin · The Next Leg Is LoadingBitcoin has been in a long consolidation, and I want to share a few things that stand out to me right now.
The Fed is lining up for a rate cut in December. Odds are now above 80% that rates will move down toward the 3.50%–3.75% range. Whenever liquidity opens up, Bitcoin tends to benefit. That’s one piece of the puzzle.
Another piece is regulation. Since the start of Trump’s second term, the U.S. has taken a friendlier stance. A strategic Bitcoin reserve, the Clarity Act, and crypto-friendly leadership at the SEC all point to a shift that gives institutions more confidence.
And then there’s Gold. It’s already at all-time highs. Historically, Gold runs first, Bitcoin follows. If the pattern holds, Bitcoin could be setting up for its next move higher.
On the chart, BTC is sitting around $111k. Price is under the 50-day MA but still well above the 200-day at $104k. That’s not a broken trend, that’s a pause. The real battleground is $111k–$108k. Hold that zone, and the path to $118k–$124k opens. Lose it, and we could be testing $104k next.
Sentiment is still cautious, even leaning toward fear. Funny enough, that’s often when Bitcoin starts building strength in the background. Meanwhile, altcoins are still enjoying liquidity while BTC moves sideways — the usual rotation we’ve seen many times before.
For me, the plan is simple:
Keep the BTC core position steady.
Trade alts tactically, don’t overstay.
Watch $118k — if we break through, it’s likely the start of Bitcoin’s next major leg.
Medium term, I’m looking at $150k–$180k this cycle. Long term, $200k+ isn’t unrealistic if the trend holds.
For now, it feels like the calm before the storm.
TheCryptoFire
Bitcoin: dip before the surge? BTC holds the lineBTC price entered into a stronger correction during the previous week as a combination of several topics. News is mentioning that whales (large holders) offloaded a significant volume of BTC which amplified downside momentum. At the same time, forced liquidations of leveraged positions additionally added to the downside. On the US macro side, posted PCE data of 2,7% y/y in August continues to build up investors expectations of two rate cuts till the end of this year. From the analysts point of view, this correction represents a normal move on markets, which is necessary in order to build a momentum to BTCs return toward the higher grounds.
Although BTC started the week around the $114K level, it soon reverted down, ending the week above the $109K level. The long term support stands at $110K, which is currently tested. The RSI dropped down to the level of 37. Clear oversold market side has not been reached on this occasion, indicating that there is still space for a price of BTC to move a bit lower, till the clear oversold market side is reached, where its reversal will start. The MA50 slowly converges toward the MA200, however, due to the distance between lines, the cross is still not in plan.
Monday trading session will set the sentiment for the trading week ahead. From the current point of charts, BTC might move toward the $108K to test this supporting line. This would also mark the end of the cycle, from where a new reversal toward the upside might start. On the opposite side, a break of $110K resistance would indicate a further move to the higher grounds, at least till the level of $112K. It should be also considered that Friday brings JOLTs job openings and Unemployment data in the US, which might be another volatile day on financial and crypto markets.
BTCUSD - Bullish Bias🔹 Pair: Bitcoin (BTCUSD)
🔹 HTF Overview: Price remains strong and bullish, respecting higher-timeframe structure with clear upward momentum.
🔹 MTF Outlook: Waiting for midterm alignment—once a lower-high (LH) breach occurs, we’ll position for continuation with fresh OB areas.
🔹 LTF Setup: Currently in a deep anchor OB. Waiting for the hold and CHoCH switch before committing to long entries.
🔹 Targets: Higher liquidity zones above recent highs, aligned with bullish intent.
🔹 Mindset Note: Let smart money lead—patience ensures optimal timing and execution.
BTC (daily)- The second half of September has shown stronger red candles compared to the green candles in early September, indicating increased downward momentum.
- Based on the descending channel pattern, the price appears to be approximately halfway through its downward movement.
- The price is likely to clear the liquidity zones in Zone 1 and Zone 2 before advancing toward an order block.
- My target is where the lower border of the descending price channel converges with the price zone of the order block.
BTC Bias - HTF - Plan - 29.09-05.10BTC’s done basically nothing. We had a big reset on Thursday, then sideways into today. From here (Sunday) I’m expecting either more downside or a nasty pump into Monday that doesn’t take the lows - just enough to keep the hopeium alive. End of month and quarter make this tricky.
Bitcoin - MACD SignalLets look at the current bull run in Bitcoin from the Nov 2022 low around 16,000.
Major Support resistance - identified at 16000-20000 and at 66000-70000
Waves - there have been 4 impulsive waves and 4 corrective. The last 3 impulsive moves resulted in roughly 50K rise. The corrective moves have been Rectangles or Bull Flags.
Trendline - a supporting trendline can be identified , that has been touched on 3 occasions to date.
Moving Averages - since price has moved above the 200 period moving channel, the 20/50 MAV has stayed in a golden relationship. Note the more responsive 9 MAV has momentarily crossed below the 20 MAV at the low of the corrective cycle. Price also has tested the 50 MAV at each low.
MACD - The slow/fast signal lines crossed the Zero axis in March 23 and has stayed above for the duration. Each golden cross and dead cross approximates 4 weeks from a high or low in price. Additionally, if price moves outside the bollinger bands (signified by grey bars) , a consolidation soon follows. The bearish divergence of price and MACD signal is noted.
Where are we now ?
Primary Trend - Dow would suggest we are still in a Bull Market.
Signals - The MACD had a weekly dead cross on the 25th August 2025. Price been in consolidation since the 14th July 2025. The 9ema space to 20 ema is contracting, but it has not had a dead cross as yet. The 50 MAV sits at 98000. Trendline support 102000-107000.
Where to next ?
Bull Case - primary trend is up and until it bends down, Bitcoin appreciates. Support likely above 95000 and next leg to 150000. MACD golden cross comes in timely, so waiting for this confirmation would assist.
Bear Case - possibly a major correction if the trendline is broken comprehensively to the downside. MACD signal lines crossing below Zero would be the confirmation . The swing low of 75000 and the major support at 70000 would be the obvious projections.
LONG ON BITCON BTC/USDBitcoin has started its (New Downtrend) after it completed a change of character on the Daily on Aug 25th.
I am looking to catch the pullback to the next key level of supply before turning around and selling bitcoin to the next swing low.
On this buy trade I will be looking to make 5000 points.
BTCUSD Short/Sell SignalBitcoin (BTC/USD) – Tactical Short/Sell Positioning Framework
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently presenting a compelling short-side opportunity as the structure unfolds. After multiple failed attempts to sustain momentum above the $110,000 handle, price action has carved out a sequence of lower highs and retests of the same horizontal zone, a classic sign of weakening bullish conviction and potential distribution at elevated levels.
The current chart reveals several critical dynamics:
1. Stop-Loss Placement (Risk Management Discipline)
A prudent protective stop (SL) I have set at $112,800, just above recent resistance. This ensures adverse upside volatility is capped while preserving favorable risk-to-reward asymmetry.
2. Initial Breakdown Trigger
Bitcoin’s repeated interactions with the 200-day moving average highlight the significance of this level as both psychological and structural support. A clean break beneath it could catalyze accelerated downside flows, inviting systematic selling and liquidations.
3. Downside Targets (Profit Objectives)
Take Profit 1 (TP1): $100,070
This marks the first tactical support level, aligning with prior consolidation and offering a conservative initial profit capture.
Take Profit 2 (TP2): $89,566
A more ambitious level, representing the mid-range support where prior accumulation took place. A breach of this zone would likely confirm a broader bearish continuation pattern.
Take Profit 3 (TP3): $76,193
The ultimate downside objective in this framework, corresponding to deep structural support. Achieving this would imply a full retracement of the bullish leg initiated earlier in the year.
4. Strategic Interpretation
This sequence of measured downside targets aligns with a tiered scaling-out methodology, ensuring that profits are progressively locked in as price declines. Such an approach maximizes capital efficiency while allowing flexibility to ride the broader bearish trend should momentum persist.
My Conclusion
The technical confluence of repeated resistance rejection, weakening market structure, and clear downside liquidity targets positions Bitcoin as a sophisticated short candidate at current levels. Risk is well-contained above $112,800, while downside projections toward $100K, $89.5K, and ultimately $76K create a compelling asymmetric opportunity.
BTC Possible Scenarios for the WeekPossible Scenarios for the Week
Bullish scenario: BTC holds support at $110,000, breaks through $120,000, and heads toward $125,000-$130,000.
Sideways/consolidation: Movement between $110,000 and $120,000 without a clear direction.
Bearish scenario: Break below $110,000 — test of $105,000 and below.
Risks and factors to monitor
Fed policy and rate announcements can significantly influence the trend (as a driver for the USD).
Trading volumes: Weak volumes during breakouts may be false.
US macroeconomics, inflation, geopolitics — increased tensions could trigger volatility.
Patience is Profit: The Unseen Poetry of Forex Risk Management⚠️ Shocking Truth in Forex Trading ⚠️
Most traders lose not because their strategy is wrong… but because they ignore risk management.
🛡️ Mastering Risk Management in Forex Trading
Risk management is the foundation of long-term success in Forex. Many traders spend their time perfecting entries and strategies, but the real edge comes from how well you manage risk, emotions, and capital. Without these, even the best strategy will fail.
📌 Position Sizing
📉 Never risk more than 1–2% of your account on a single trade.
📏 Adjust lot size according to your stop-loss distance.
⏳ Small, controlled risks keep you in the game long enough to let your strategy work.
🎯 Risk-to-Reward Ratio
⚖️ Always aim for 1:2 or higher risk-to-reward.
📊 Even with just a 40% win rate, a positive RRR keeps you profitable.
🔑 Focus on consistency rather than chasing quick wins.
🧠 Psychology of Risk
😨 Fear makes traders exit winning trades too soon.
💰 Greed convinces them to hold onto losing trades too long.
📝 Build a personal rule: “I follow my plan, not my emotions.”
✔️ Accept losses as part of the business—risk is simply the cost of trading.
📉 Drawdown Control
🚫 Avoid over-leveraging—it magnifies both profits and losses.
🛑 Cap your risk per trade to protect account equity.
🔄 Remember: a 50% loss requires 100% gain to recover. Capital protection comes first.
🔄 Consistency Over Perfection
🎲 No strategy wins every time.
🏦 Risk management allows you to survive losing streaks.
🎰 Think like a casino: edge + probability + discipline = profit.
🧘 Trading Psychology Habits
📖 Keep a trading journal to track results and emotions.
🧩 Detach from outcomes and focus on executing your plan.
☕ Trade only when your mindset is calm and focused.
⚖️ Golden Rule
💎 Protect your capital first—profits will naturally follow.
Discipline, patience, and controlled risk are the keys to turning short-term survival into long-term success.
✅ Final Thought: In Forex, your greatest weapon is not predicting every move but mastering risk management and emotional control. The market always rewards patience, discipline, and consistency—not reckless gambling.
📢 Follow me for more Forex insights, strategies, and trading psychology content.
BTCUSDT weekly target get more link in bioBTC/USD | Short-Term Analysis
Bitcoin has bounced off the support zone and is now trading in an upward channel. Bullish momentum is expected in the next few hours after price consolidation.
Key Levels:
Support: 109,250 USD
Resistance / Weekly Target: 110,200 USD
✅ Trading Idea: Consider a buy setup when the price touches the lower channel, with a stop loss below support. Follow the upward trend to the weekly target.
Note: Be sure to apply risk management; the market is volatile.
$100,000 Bitcoin Might Not Be Far From Reality....“Fed Cut” was Already Expected
The 25bps cut had 99.7% probability priced in, so there was little surprise. Bitcoin needed more dovish forward guidance, not just a single cut.
This led to a “sell the news” effect: BTC jumped ahead of expectations and then hesitated.
Weak Spot Flows / ETF Pullbacks
Futures markets are active and leveraged, but spot volume is lagging, suggesting weaker real demand.
Although ETFs once fueled gains, some weeks show professional asset managers pulling back, slowing the rally.
BTCUSD Short Idea: Bearish Rejection at Former SupportHello fellow traders,
This is a technical analysis of a potential short setup on the BTCUSD 15-minute timeframe.
Analysis:
The chart shows that after a notable downward trend, the price of Bitcoin has been consolidating in a tight range. We are currently observing a retest of the key horizontal level around $110,425. This level previously acted as support, and the current price action suggests it may be flipping into a new resistance level.
The expectation is for the price to be rejected from this resistance and continue the prevailing bearish trend.
Trade Setup:
Based on the short position tool placed on the chart, the parameters for this trade idea are as follows:
Entry: Approximately $110,423.09
Stop Loss: $112,626.92 (This is placed above the recent consolidation high, providing a buffer against volatility).
Take Profit: $103,822.05 (This targets a lower price point, potentially a new swing low).
This setup presents a clear risk-to-reward profile.
Disclaimer: This is a trading idea for educational and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research and manage your risk appropriately before making any trading decisions.
Saturday Bitcoin analysisSo far, Bitcoin’s trend is bearish, and the price is stuck in a range that seems to be getting tighter by the moment. Of course, in the next day or two we shouldn’t expect much movement because the Forex market is closed — unless some sudden major news comes out.
If the range breaks to the upside, we need to wait for a strong trigger, meaning clear signs of a trend reversal. But if the range breaks to the downside, we can enter a position even without a trigger, as long as risk management is applied. One important point: since the price has already dropped a lot, in case of a downside breakout we shouldn’t expect a high RR, because the trend could reverse at one of the support levels. ✅