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BTC 4H – Range Support Holding, Waiting for BreakoutBitcoin continues to respect the major range support zone around $104,000 – $100,300, after a strong drop from the recent highs. Price is now consolidating inside the demand zone, showing early signs of accumulation. If buyers hold this level, we could see a potential relief move back toward the $111,400 – $113,100 resistance area. However, a clean 4H breakout and close is required for bullish continuation. Until then, BTC remains in a range-bound structure, and patience is key. Key Levels: 🔹 Support: $104,000 – $100,300 🔹 Resistance: $111,400 – $113,100 Bias: Neutral → Bullish (as long as support holds) BTC is open 24/7 — managing risk is more important than chasing moves. 📌
by trading_analyse03
BTCUSDT STILL LONG SWING-After holding the first entry from 4 days again & hitting TP.1; i re-analysed the market structure for another long swing opportunity without realizing that over the days there has been a liquidy pool which was below my original entry point. -The trade hit my SL & waited for a clear sweep & a clear close of a candle indicating that we are in the clear for our longs..hopefully.(its only been 2months analysing BTC) -I trade BTCUSD to swing the setups; the longest i held a setup before it reach target was 2-3 days (I trade gold for immediate setups to hold for a few hours) Its even longer when waiting for my setup to play out. -Lets see how we go.👍
Long
by TheeAnomaliKhai
BTC BREAKING NEWS OR BREAKING CHARTS?📰 BREAKING NEWS OR BREAKING CHARTS? TRUMP IMPOSES TARIFFS, CAUSING A BITCOIN BLOODBATH — $20,000 DRAWDOWN IN 2 HOURS! Bitcoin was sitting comfortably at $121,000, before a sudden macro shock — triggered by newly imposed U.S. tariffs — sent prices spiraling down to $100,000 in a matter of hours. Bulls were liquidated. Bears rejoiced. Now, the market stands at a crossroads: will this become a major dump continuation, or the foundation for a secret pump? Chart Overview & Structure On the high timeframe, BTC continues to trade within a rising wedge formation, with price now showing a significant wick rejection from the upper boundary. This move suggests a potential shift in market structure — a moment that’s likely to shake inexperienced traders. The chart reveals a clear supply and demand structure: Supply Zone: $123,452 – $130,000 D emand Zone: $98,826 – $101,400 These zones define the battlefield between bulls and bears. In addition, eight psychological levels dominate the chart — $100K, $105K, $110K, $115K, $120K, $125K, and $130K — each representing potential liquidity clusters and reaction points. Adding to the complexity, we can see a golden pocket (0.618–0.65 retracement) forming around $106,000, perfectly aligning with prior swing lows and the midpoint of a large Fair Value Gap (FVG) overhead. This zone could serve as a reversal or continuation point depending on whether price can reclaim and hold above the major support trendline. Technical Insights The market has now tapped the rising wedge resistance three times, with the last tap forming a wick above $125K, triggering liquidity before the sharp collapse. This aligns with the classical exhaustion behavior of wedges. Moreover, a potential Head and Shoulders structure is beginning to emerge, with the right shoulder aligning near $115K — a confluence area that may attract strong bearish attention. For now, price is testing the lower support trendline — a crucial pivot area for determining whether BTC continues to break down toward demand or consolidates for recovery. This structure creates a make-or-break zone that will define the next macro leg. Bullish Scenario Despite the panic, this could be a classic liquidity flush — a “flush candle” event designed to wipe out leveraged long positions before a larger move upward. If BTC can maintain structure above the major support line and close above $106K–$110K, it opens the door for a relief rally. A reclaim of $115K would confirm buyer strength. Sustained momentum could push BTC back into the $120K–$125K range to retest the broken supply zone. Breaking through $125K would invalidate the bearish wedge, potentially igniting a run toward $130K+ and even new highs in “Pump-tober.” In this scenario, the deep liquidation event becomes fuel for a massive short squeeze, driving momentum and reigniting bullish sentiment across crypto markets. Bearish Scenario On the flip side, if BTC fails to hold above $106K or decisively breaks below the demand zone at $98K, it would confirm a rising wedge breakdown. Below $100K, momentum could accelerate toward $95K–$92K — the next liquidity pools and volume gaps. The Head and Shoulders completion would confirm the bearish reversal structure, further strengthening the downside case. Macro sentiment, fueled by geopolitical and policy fears, could add weight to the bearish outlook. A rejection from $115K without sustained reclaim would also reinforce the bearish continuation pattern, with every psychological level above turning into resistance. Summary Bitcoin is at an inflection point — the $100K–$115K range will define the next macro move. The recent wick and structure breakdown hint at weakness, but the flush candle and liquidity sweep also suggest that a bullish rebound could be on the horizon. In short: Above $115K → Bullish continuation possible. Below $100K → Bearish expansion likely. With volatility at its peak, traders should expect massive liquidity hunts, fakeouts, and emotional traps on both sides. Whether this becomes the start of a macro correction or a secret accumulation phase before a major pump — the next few daily closes will tell the story.
by King_BennyBag
27
BTC testing key support levelBitcoin is now testing a key support zone between $107,000 and $109,000. This area has been tested three times in the last weeks, each time producing a bounce, which suggests that buyers are ready to step in around this price. Large on‑chain wallets are accumulating near $108k, adding hidden buying pressure that helps defend the level. Volume‑profile analysis shows a high‑volume node at the same price, another classic sign of strong support. If the daily candle closes cleanly above this range, the floor is likely solid and the next target becomes the $115k–$120k resistance band. Conversely, a daily close below $107k–$109k would flip the narrative from defended floor to broken support. A break of the support would open the path toward $96,000, a psychologically important round‑number zone and the next major point of interest. A sizable cluster of stop‑losses and pending sell orders sits just above $95k, so price could accelerate once that barrier is breached. Should price fail to hold at $96k and keep falling, the next structural test is the downward trend line that converges near $91k. In short, today’s critical signal is the daily close: stay above $107k for a bullish continuation, fall below for a move toward $96k, and watch the $91k trend line for a longer‑term structural shift. Risk management is essential; the $96k area offers a favourable risk‑to‑reward profile for long‑term holders.
by CapitalHubs
Bitcoin – Corrective Structure Developing#Bitcoin – Corrective Structure Developing Current price: $110,350 Bitcoin continues to trade inside a corrective structure, suggesting the market may be preparing for another downward leg before a potential recovery. 🧩 Technical Overview • Price failed to hold above the $112,000 resistance zone and has since formed a descending pattern, likely part of an ABC correction. • The local structure shows repeated lower highs and compression around $110,000, confirming seller control in the short term. • The correction remains active while price stays below $112,000–$112,500. 📉 Scenario • The market is forming a short-term bearish continuation pattern, with potential extension toward deeper Fibonacci supports. • Stop-loss: above the $112,000 resistance zone. • Downside zones to watch: – $108,900–$107,300 — initial support area (0.5–0.618 Fib range) – $105,000 — critical pivot zone – $99,000–$100,000 — key Fibonacci cluster and potential short-term bottom – $93,000–$88,000 — extended target range if pressure intensifies ⚙️ Market Context • BTC remains in a corrective pullback phase following a strong September rally. • Broader sentiment shows reduced risk appetite across crypto and macro assets. • A sustained break below $105,000 could accelerate selling pressure, while recovery above $112,000 would invalidate the bearish scenario. 🧭 Summary Bitcoin continues to consolidate within a corrective pattern, leaning bearish below $112,000. Short-term momentum favors further downside toward $105,000–$99,000, with deeper extensions possible near $93,000–$88,000. Until a breakout confirms otherwise, the bias remains cautiously bearish in the near term.
Short
by NewOneCrypto
Bitcoin forms a clear bear flag patternBTC forms a clear bear flag pattern with a confirmed breakout below the lower boundary, signaling potential continuation of the downward move BTC has clearly formed a bear flag, breaking through the lower boundary. According to the pattern, a downward movement will form Current price: $110,872 The downward movement according to the pattern could continue to $109,880 and lower... A rebound to the upper boundary of the pattern, around $114,550 , is also likely More detailed analysis, additional charts, and key levels to watch are available on our site
Short
by c_views
Bitcoin September 2025 Outlook: a/b/c price fractal structureBTC enters September post-ATH with a seasonal headwind. Base case: a ~10% A-leg dip toward $108k, a B-bounce into ~$122k, then a C-flush near ~$94k—echoing April’s ABC rhythm. Once complete, the uptrend should re-assert into year-end. 📉🔁📈 #Bitcoin #Seasonality #Crypto 🟠 Bitcoin September Outlook: Seasonality vs. Structure After a fresh ATH, September’s historical bias skews mildly red. Base case is a ~10% A-leg dip that develops into an A/B/C correction before trend continuation. Think controlled pullback → consolidation → next markup. 📉➡️🔁➡️📈 ________________________________________ 🗓️ Seasonality Snapshot (2015–2024) • Mean (10-yr): −2.55% · Median: −4.52% • Red months: 6/10 • Worst September: 2019 (−13.88%) • Best September: 2024 (+7.39%) • Last 3 yrs avg: +2.8% (2024 +7.39%, 2023 +3.99%, 2022 −3.09%) • Last 5 yrs avg (2020–2024): −1.3% Read: September has tended to be weak, but the last two years printed green. Seasonality is a headwind—not a handbrake. 🌬️ ________________________________________ 🧩 Structure Thesis (Fractal Analog) You’re looking for a repeat of April 2025’s A/B/C rhythm—scaled up: • April 2025 reference: A ≈ $92k → B ≈ $106k → C ≈ $80k • Now (projected): o A ≈ $108k (≈ 10% pullback from recent highs) 📉 o B ≈ $122k (relief rally / lower high) 🔁 o C ≈ $94k (final flush into demand, completing the correction) 🧱 Interpretation: A measured September fade aligns with the A-leg. A reflexive B-bounce can follow as funding resets and late longs get cleaned up, with a C-leg completing the pattern before the next expansion. 🚀 ________________________________________ 📊 How Seasonality Supports the Call • Typical drag: Median −4.5% and multiple red Septembers justify a down-bias. • Volatility window: The historical 21-point spread (best +7.39% vs worst −13.88%) means a 10% dip sits well within normal bounds. • Cycle context: With a new ATH just printed, a shallow corrective phase is constructive—not bearish regime change. ________________________________________ 🧭 Levels & Triggers • Bias line: Momentum cools into $108k → watch for seller absorption and open interest reset. • Relief cap: $122k acts as B-rally resistance; sustained closes above $122k would invalidate the ABC idea and argue for immediate continuation. ✅ • Completion zone: $94k (C) is the buy-the-dip completion area; clean breaks below raise risk of a deeper time correction rather than a swift V-reversal. ⚠️ ________________________________________ 🧪 What to Monitor (Confirmation/Invalidation) • Liquidity & OI: De-leveraging into A, controlled OI rebuild into B, washout into C. • Spot-ETF flows / stablecoin issuance: Weakening into A, stabilizing by late month supports B→C rhythm. • Funding/basis: Overheated → normalize during A; negative spikes near C often mark capitulation. • Breadth (alts): Underperform into A/C; broad risk-on breadth usually returns post-C. ________________________________________ 📝 Base Case Path (Textbook) September: drift to $108k (A) → bounce toward $122k (B) → final tag of ~$94k (C) → reset + markup into Q4. (If price reclaims and holds above $122k early, treat that as trend continuation—not a correction.) ________________________________________ 🔒 Risk Notes • Seasonality is a tendency, not a rule. Macro catalysts (CPI, policy, liquidity) can dominate calendar effects. • This is market commentary, not financial advice. Manage risk and invalidation levels. 🛡️
Long
by ProjectSyndicate
40
BTC 5-Wave Drop Complete — Watching 114K–117K ZoneLast week, we continued the downward movement. Looking at the CME chart now, we can see a completed 5-wave bearish structure — meaning the price is entering an upward correction phase. This correction could potentially turn into a new uptrend, so it’s important to watch the price action in the 114K–117K zone. The risk level for this week is 107,575 — if it breaks without a quick recovery, the chances of continued decline increase significantly. Until then, the goal is to reach and break the previous peak at 116K .
by trading_mura
Bitcoin wave ology:)Hi dears As you see I have determined a sequence :1_2_3_4 1 stands for up wave of 50k to 110k which followed by 2 as a correction about 50%. 3 was 74k wave up to 125k then corrected 38% down to 104k. To be logic I see bullish signs.Why? That I told you shows lesser correction which means bullish power over market. Keeping 99k to 104k intact is great but Bearish signs just appear whenever bitcoin likes trading below 99k! First of all try to know what markets are doing. This is where you do better. Good luck all🙏🏼
Long
by cba2020
Eurodollar Secrets: The Hidden Engine of Global FinanceIntroduction The Eurodollar market is one of the least understood yet most powerful forces in the global financial system. Despite its name, the Eurodollar has nothing to do with Europe’s single currency, the euro. Instead, it refers to U.S. dollar deposits held in banks outside the United States, primarily in Europe but also across the world. The Eurodollar system operates largely beyond the control of U.S. regulators, making it a key component of the global shadow banking system. It underpins international trade, corporate borrowing, global liquidity, and even central bank policy — all while functioning outside traditional monetary oversight. In this article, we will uncover the origins, mechanics, advantages, risks, and modern relevance of the Eurodollar market, revealing why it remains the hidden backbone of global finance. 1. Origins of the Eurodollar Market The Eurodollar market traces its roots back to the 1950s Cold War era. The term “Eurodollar” was coined because large dollar deposits were held by European banks outside the jurisdiction of the United States. The origins are tied to two main developments: a. Post-War Dollar Dominance After World War II, the U.S. dollar emerged as the world’s reserve currency under the Bretton Woods system. Global trade and reconstruction efforts required vast amounts of dollars, leading many foreign banks to hold U.S. dollar deposits for international transactions. b. Avoiding U.S. Regulation During the Cold War, the Soviet Union and Eastern Bloc nations wanted to keep their dollar holdings outside the U.S. banking system to avoid potential asset freezes. Thus, they placed their dollars in European banks — particularly in London. By the late 1950s, British banks began actively accepting and lending these offshore dollars, creating the Eurodollar market. London’s light regulation and time zone advantage made it the ideal hub. Over time, this market exploded in size, becoming the center of global dollar liquidity. 2. Understanding What a Eurodollar Is A Eurodollar is simply a U.S. dollar deposit held outside the United States — whether in a London bank, a Swiss financial institution, or a Singapore branch. These deposits are not subject to U.S. Federal Reserve reserve requirements or U.S. banking regulations. That means banks can offer higher interest rates and greater flexibility. Example: A Japanese corporation might deposit $50 million in a London bank account denominated in U.S. dollars. That deposit is a Eurodollar. The London bank may then lend those dollars to a Canadian energy company — all in dollars, but outside the U.S. banking system. This offshore system has created a parallel dollar-based economy, vast in scale and largely invisible to the average investor. 3. How the Eurodollar Market Works The Eurodollar market functions through a network of offshore banks, corporations, and financial institutions engaged in borrowing and lending U.S. dollars. a. Depositors Corporations, governments, and investors deposit their U.S. dollars in offshore banks to earn interest or finance international operations. b. Borrowers Multinational corporations, hedge funds, and even governments borrow Eurodollars to fund trade, investment, or speculative activities. c. Interbank Market Much of the Eurodollar trading occurs between banks themselves — known as the interbank market — where banks lend and borrow dollars to manage liquidity. Interest rates in this market are often benchmarked to the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) (now replaced by SOFR and other benchmarks). For decades, LIBOR served as the heartbeat of Eurodollar lending. 4. Advantages of the Eurodollar Market The Eurodollar system provides several key benefits that made it indispensable to global finance: a. Regulatory Freedom Eurodollars exist outside U.S. banking regulation. Offshore banks are not subject to Federal Reserve requirements, allowing them to operate with greater leverage and flexibility. b. Higher Yields Because offshore banks face fewer regulatory costs, they can offer higher interest rates to depositors. This attracted vast inflows of funds from corporations and investors. c. Global Liquidity The Eurodollar market acts as a global liquidity pool. It ensures that U.S. dollars are available around the world, facilitating trade, investment, and financial transactions. d. Efficient Funding Corporations and banks can access dollar-denominated loans without needing to go through U.S. institutions, making cross-border finance more efficient. 5. The Hidden Power: Eurodollars and Global Monetary Policy Perhaps the most important — and least understood — aspect of Eurodollars is their influence on global monetary policy. While the Federal Reserve controls the supply of base dollars inside the U.S., the Eurodollar market creates offshore dollars through bank credit expansion, effectively multiplying the global dollar supply beyond the Fed’s control. a. Shadow Money Creation When a London bank makes a $100 million Eurodollar loan, it is essentially creating dollar credit outside the U.S. system. This credit functions like real dollars in global trade and finance. b. Implications for the Federal Reserve The Fed’s control over global dollar liquidity is limited. Even if it tightens domestic policy, offshore banks can continue to expand dollar credit abroad, influencing global interest rates and capital flows. c. Global Dependence on Dollar Liquidity Countries, corporations, and banks worldwide rely on Eurodollar funding for transactions and debt servicing. When Eurodollar liquidity tightens (as in 2008 or 2020), the entire world feels the squeeze. 6. Eurodollars and the Rise of the Shadow Banking System The Eurodollar market is a cornerstone of what economists call the “shadow banking system” — financial institutions and instruments that perform bank-like functions without traditional regulation. Offshore banks, money market funds, and repo markets all interconnect with Eurodollar flows. This system provides immense liquidity but also systemic risk, since it operates largely outside regulatory oversight. Key Shadow Components: Eurodollar deposits Offshore repo agreements Eurobond markets Synthetic dollar funding via derivatives Together, these elements create a web of global credit that underpins everything from corporate loans to emerging market debt. 7. The Eurodollar Futures Market To manage interest rate risk, traders developed Eurodollar futures — standardized contracts that allow participants to hedge or speculate on future U.S. dollar interest rates. These contracts, traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) since 1981, became one of the world’s most liquid financial instruments. How It Works: Each Eurodollar futures contract represents a $1 million three-month deposit. The price moves inversely to interest rates — when rates rise, the futures price falls. Uses: Banks hedge funding costs. Corporations manage borrowing exposure. Speculators bet on central bank policy changes. Even after LIBOR’s phaseout, Eurodollar futures remain crucial for managing short-term dollar rate exposure. 8. Eurobonds and Eurocredit: Expanding the Ecosystem The Eurodollar market paved the way for Eurobond and Eurocredit markets — global debt instruments denominated in foreign currencies but issued outside the issuer’s home country. For example, a Japanese company might issue a Eurodollar bond in London to raise dollar funds. Investors love such bonds for their higher yields and flexibility. Eurocredit loans These are large, syndicated loans in the Eurodollar market — often used by governments or multinational corporations. The Eurocredit market boomed in the 1970s and 1980s, financing everything from oil projects to emerging market infrastructure. 9. Risks and Crises in the Eurodollar System Despite its efficiency, the Eurodollar system carries significant risks, primarily due to its opacity and lack of regulation. a. Lack of Central Bank Backstop Unlike U.S. banks, offshore Eurodollar institutions cannot access the Federal Reserve’s emergency lending facilities. In crises, they face funding shortages. b. Contagion Risk Because the system is interconnected, a liquidity crunch in one part (e.g., London) can quickly ripple through Asia or Latin America. c. 2008 Global Financial Crisis The 2008 crisis exposed the fragility of the Eurodollar system. When U.S. funding markets froze, offshore banks could not roll over short-term dollar debt, leading to a global dollar shortage. The Fed had to intervene with swap lines to supply offshore liquidity. d. Regulatory Blind Spot Since Eurodollars are created outside the U.S., no single regulator tracks their total supply or leverage. Estimates suggest the offshore dollar system could exceed $15–20 trillion, but the true figure is unknown. 10. Modern Evolution: From LIBOR to SOFR and Beyond In recent years, the Eurodollar market has undergone transformation. The phaseout of LIBOR (due to manipulation scandals) led to new benchmarks like the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) in the U.S. and SONIA in the U.K. While these reforms aim to improve transparency, the Eurodollar ecosystem remains resilient. Offshore dollar deposits and loans continue to dominate international finance, especially as global trade and digital banking expand. 11. Eurodollars in the 21st Century: Digital and Decentralized Future The next evolution may involve digital Eurodollars — tokenized U.S. dollar deposits or stablecoins like USDT and USDC. These digital assets function as modern Eurodollars, circulating globally outside U.S. regulation but denominated in dollars. a. Stablecoins as New Eurodollars Stablecoins backed by U.S. dollar reserves essentially replicate the Eurodollar structure — offshore, unregulated dollar liquidity. b. Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) In response, central banks are exploring CBDCs to regain control over global dollar flows. The digital dollar could one day reshape how Eurodollar liquidity operates. 12. Why the Eurodollar Still Matters The Eurodollar market remains the lifeblood of global trade and finance. Over 80% of international trade is invoiced in U.S. dollars. Emerging markets depend on Eurodollar funding for growth. Global corporations borrow and lend in this market daily. Even though it operates outside official channels, the Eurodollar market’s health directly affects interest rates, liquidity, and financial stability worldwide. Conclusion: The Invisible Dollar Empire The Eurodollar system is one of the greatest financial innovations — and enigmas — of modern capitalism. Born from geopolitical necessity, it evolved into a vast offshore network that creates and circulates U.S. dollars beyond U.S. borders. Its power lies in its invisibility: it influences global liquidity, shapes monetary policy, and fuels international trade, all without direct oversight. However, with great power comes great risk. The Eurodollar market’s opacity and lack of regulation mean it can amplify crises when liquidity dries up. Understanding its mechanics is crucial for grasping how global finance truly operates beneath the surface. In essence, the “Eurodollar secret” is that the world runs not on official U.S. dollars alone, but on a shadow network of offshore dollars — a system both indispensable and dangerously fragile. As global finance shifts toward digital assets and decentralized networks, the spirit of the Eurodollar — global, flexible, and unregulated — may continue to define the next era of money itself.
Education
by GlobalWolfStreet
BTC/USDT Analysis. Inside the Range Hello everyone! This is the trader-analyst from CryptoRobotics, and here’s the daily analysis. Yesterday, unfortunately, buyers failed to regain market activity, and today we’ve once again moved down to the lower boundary of the range. After a false breakout of the local low, the price bounced back and tested a small demand zone at $112,000–$113,000 formed yesterday. The cumulative delta continues to decline, showing ineffective buying pressure. On the other hand, the price is being squeezed tightly toward the $109,500 low, suggesting a possible liquidity sweep soon. In case of a false breakout, the move could extend up to $115,000. However, if we see a clear breakout and consolidation below, the scenario shifts toward short positions. Buy Zones: • $109,500 (false breakout level), • $97,000–$93,000 (volume cluster). Sell Zones: • $112,000–$113,000 (local volume zone), • $114,400–$115,600 (local volume zone), • $120,900–$124,000 (major volume zone). This publication does not constitute financial advice.
by Crypto_robotics
BITCOIN STRUCTUREBitcoin is currently showing strong support around the 110K level. As long as the price remains above this zone, buyers are likely to stay in control. A potential short-term upside move could target the $116K area first. If bullish momentum continues, the next target would be around 122k However, if BTC breaks below the $110,000 support, it could signal weakness and trigger a bearish reaction, possibly leading to a deeper correction before any recovery. "Thank you for your support! If you found this idea valuable or learned something new, please consider liking and leaving a comment. I’d really appreciate hearing your feedback and thoughts."
Long
by Pintu_sahu01