Bitcoin Analysis – November 25 | Key Levels & Clean Scenarios
Good morning traders!
Hope you’re having an amazing day so far.
The Fear & Greed Index is sitting at 15, which still places the market deep in Extreme Fear territory.
Let’s jump straight into today’s analysis—no extra fluff.
Quick Recap
Yesterday I mentioned that Bitcoin might reject and push upward, and that altcoins could offer better setups if BTC.D wasn’t aligned with Bitcoin’s move.
That’s exactly what happened — and I also took my entries on altcoins, not BTC.
If you’re currently in profits, I highly recommend taking partials or securing gains.
When the market has no clear higher-timeframe trend, holding positions for too long generally isn’t a great idea.
Today’s Plan
⚠️ First reminder:
The daily trend is still bearish.
Don’t forget where the bigger momentum is.
Scenario A – Bullish Reaction
If the market wants to push upward again,
$88,338 is a clean level to look for a risky long entry after a 15-minute candle close above it.
Volume is supporting this short-term move,
but candles are not confirming strongly — and that’s exactly why altcoins currently look stronger than BTC.
So:
If BTC breaks $88,338 + BTC.D shows strength,
→ Bitcoin becomes a solid long option.
If dominance disagrees,
→ I’ll personally stick with altcoins for longs.
Scenario B – Bearish Rejection
If BTC rejects and forms a failed breakout,
any valid short trigger within your strategy becomes playable.
My personal level for shorts:
$86,000
If both BTC price + BTC dominance drop together,
this becomes an excellent short setup.
If not?
Again… I’ll move to altcoins.
-->Important Note – Possible Range Week
There’s a high chance this entire week turns into a range.
If that happens:
Take profits quickly
After reaching 2R, full close or close partials
Momentum-based systems might take more stop-losses this week
→ so risk management becomes even more important.
Final Words
Thanks for reading today’s analysis!
Remember:
🚫 Don’t FOMO
🎯 Stick to your strategy
💰 The goal is consistent profitability, not one lucky trade
Have a profitable day ahead!
Stay safe, stay disciplined. 💙📈
Trade ideas
BTC Buy?
Trend has been down, now a bounce is trying to form a higher low.
Price is sitting at the POC/HVN ~87.6–87.8k (heavy traded area). This is the decision point.
First supply is 88.0–88.7k. Acceptance above it = cleaner path up. Rejection = likely rotation lower.
Structure
Support: 87.1k (thin shelf), 86.3–86.4k (last clear higher‑low / invalidation), 84.2k.
Resistance: 88.0–88.7k, 90.8–91.2k (prior shelf), 96.6k (0.382 retrace).
The dashed downtrend line has been tested; bulls need hold above POC to show control.
Indicators (4H unless noted)
RSI: around 50–55 → neutral to slightly bullish.
EMAs (20/50/200): still bearish stacked; 20 EMA is trying to curl up. A reclaim of 50 EMA would help the bounce.
Volume: breakout needs rising buy volume; a weak poke above 88k without volume often fails.
ATR(1D): ~1.7k → room for 2–3% swings.
Scenarios
Bullish: 4H close > 88.1k, then hold above ~87.95k on retest. Targets: 90.8k → 94.9k → 96.6k.
Bearish: Clear rejection at 88k with growing sell volume, or 4H close back < 87.3k. Downside magnets: 86.3k, then 84.2k.
My Take
I do not buy directly into the POC. I want either acceptance above 88.1k or a clean reaction at 86.9–87.1k. Simple plan, simple invalidation.
Not financial advice. Manage risk.
btcusdt**Technical Analysis of Bitcoin - Weekly Timeframe**
**Analysis Framework: Multi-Scenario System with Advanced Risk Management**
---
### **Scenario 1: Bullish Trend Recovery (Bullish Revival)**
- **Mechanism:** Price retracement to the bottom of the primary bullish trend and formation of a support base
- **Entry Point:** $83,040 (Key support and demand zone)
- **Stop Loss:** $79,518 (Below recent low to avoid false breakout)
- **Profit Targets:**
- First Target: $89,000
- Main Target: $93,158 (Dynamic resistance)
- **R/R Ratio:** 1:3.2
---
### **Scenario 2: Support Breakdown and Bearish Dominance (Bearish Breakdown)**
- **Mechanism:** Decisive breakdown of the $79,500 support level and activation of structural selling pressure
- **Entry Point:** $77,511 (Support breakdown and pullback confirmation)
- **Stop Loss:** $79,520 (Above breakdown level to guard against bear traps)
- **Profit Targets:**
- First Target: $74,000
- Main Target: $71,334 (Major support and new range low)
- **R/R Ratio:** 1:2.8
---
### **Scenario 3: Rejection from Resistance (Rejection)**
- **Mechanism:** Price reaction to resistance zone and formation of reversal patterns
- **Entry Point:** $93,604 (Strong selling zone and static resistance)
- **Stop Loss:** $94,170 (Above resistance high to account for volatility)
- **Profit Targets:**
- First Target: $87,000
- Main Target: $83,950 (First support in downtrend)
- **R/R Ratio:** 1:4.1
---
### **Scenario 4: Breakout Continuation (Breakout Continuation)**
- **Mechanism:** Decisive breakout above resistance and consolidation in new price territories
- **Entry Point:** $99,154 (Resistance breakout with pullback confirmation)
- **Stop Loss:** $97,124
- **Profit Targets:**
- First Target: $100,000 (Psychological level)
- Main Target: $103,340 (Fibonacci extension projection)
- **R/R Ratio:** 1:3
---
### **Key Observations:**
1. Scenarios 1 and 4 align with the primary bullish trend.
2. Scenarios 2 and 3 are counter-trend and require stronger confirmations.
### **Execution Recommendations:**
- Use Limit orders for entry at specified levels
### **Critical Warnings:**
- Scenario 4 carries elevated risk due to extremely tight stop loss
- Overlapping levels between Scenarios 1 and 2 require precise position management
**Final Note:** This analysis is based on key technical levels and requires continuous monitoring of market developments and news.
BTCUSDT.P - November 25, 2025Bitcoin is in a corrective phase within a longer-term downtrend, with price recently rejected from the 89,500 resistance area and now trending lower. The chart highlights a short trading range between a defined stop level near 89,500 and a profit level at 85,721, aligning closely to horizontal support and resistance. Current price action and momentum favor sellers, as the market presses toward lower support with weak upward retracement. A break below support could accelerate selling toward the next downside target, while reclaiming resistance might shift bias to a short-term reversal.
Bitcoin 4h Update – Elliott Wave View
The bigger picture is still playing out exactly as expected. The entire drop from the 126k region continues to unfold as a higher degree Wave C, and the subdivisions on the 4h chart support that perfectly.
We’ve completed the first impulsive leg down as wave (i), then printed a clean corrective retrace for (ii). From there, price has continued stepping lower in a clear i–ii–iii sequence. The current movement looks like the beginning of wave iv before a final v completes the larger wave (iii).
If this path holds, Bitcoin still has more downside to finish the broader Wave C. The fibs line up around the 69k level for the final termination of the move, which matches the 1.618 extension of the A leg. That’s the area where the structure would ideally wrap up Wave 2 of the entire bull cycle.
Until the channel breaks and impulsive buying steps in, this remains a controlled and orderly decline inside a textbook C wave. The structure is clean, the proportions fit, and nothing suggests a lasting low has formed yet.
Let the last legs finish. A proper bottom should come once the full five-wave sequence of C completes.
$BTC signs of life flagging a LTF inverse H/S On the low time frame, there is what looks to be an inverse head and shoulders on the 15 minute. If the neck line breaks (dotted line), its likely we see a relief rally and rise to the 00k region. I am currently long so like everyone, looking for signs of life.
While many don't consider inverse H/S - especially on the 15 minute time frame significant, after trading for 7 years I can tell you this - TA is TA.
Macro reversal? who knows
Short term reversal? looks likely
BTC under pressure as market fear growsBitcoin retraces from the intermediate-term low, volatility is rising but not aggressively: VIX ~25.
NVDA earnings were fine, so no major tech-driven risk-off. Feels like crypto is the main driver here. MSTR is adding pressure: down 50% since September, large holders are unloading. Since MSTR was added to Nasdaq in 2024, its selloff is indirectly weighing on the index — and on BTC as well.
This week, BTC will likely set the tone for broader market dynamics.
The possible short trade would be from the pullback to the 50-day moving average area or lower with a target area below the recent low.
Don't forget - this is just the idea, always do your own research and never forget to manage your risk!
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
The volatility period has ended.
The key is whether it can rise above 89294.25.
If not, we need to check for support near 69000-73499.86.
(1W chart)
The following are important areas as the price falls below the third range:
- 116259.91-119086.64
- 87814.27-93570.28
- 69000-73499.86
A decline below the 69000-73499.86 range can be considered a long-term downtrend, so this is a very important area for now.
Therefore, as the price approaches the 69000-73499.86 range, we need to check for increased trading volume or the emergence of a new HA-Low indicator on the 1W chart.
If the HA-Low indicator is formed, it's important to determine whether there's support near it.
The basic trading strategy is to buy in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range and sell in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range.
If the price rises near the HA-Low indicator and moves toward the HA-High indicator, the wave should be considered closed (reset).
Conversely, if the price falls near the HA-High indicator and moves toward the HA-Low indicator, the wave should also be considered closed (reset).
A closed (reset) wave means that the trend has been reestablished.
Therefore, as mentioned earlier, the basic trading strategy is created.
However, if the price rises in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range, a stepwise uptrend is likely, while if the price falls in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range, a stepwise downtrend is likely.
The end of a stepwise uptrend is a decline, and the end of a stepwise downtrend is a rise.
Therefore, a decline after encountering the HA-Low indicator is different from a decline after encountering the HA-High indicator.
Therefore, a stepwise downtrend indicates a period of truncation buying, while a stepwise uptrend indicates a period of truncation selling.
During a stepwise downtrend, even if the price declines, there's an expectation that a price increase will occur soon, so you can increase the number of coins (tokens) representing profit.
This method involves trading at each purchase price and selling the same amount of coins (tokens) when the price rises, thereby increasing the number of coins (tokens) representing profit.
The coins (tokens) representing profit are those with a purchase price of 0, which can lead to significant profits later.
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A bullish trend can be considered when the price rises above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart and holds.
However, the point where you should actually buy is when the price rises above 108353.0.
Based on the current trend, the next volatility period is expected around December 23rd.
Therefore, you should check to see if the price holds above 89294.25 during the next volatility period.
Therefore, it appears likely that the price will move sideways to reverse the trend.
Based on the price movement, the start of a major bear market is expected to begin after the first quarter of next year.
However, if the price falls below 69000-73499.86, you should consider this a bear market and consider a response plan.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
- Here's an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
I'll explain more in detail when the bear market begins.
------------------------------------------------------
BTC/USDT 4H Chart Review1. Local trend
The chart shows:
✔️ Clear upward trend - the price respects the rising trend line (black diagonal).
✔️ The last candle broke strongly upwards, which suggests bullish momentum.
⸻
🟢 Key resistance levels (green lines)
1. 90,352 USDT - the first stronger resistance (it looks like the price is just reaching it).
2. 93,271 USDT - another strong resistance; there may be a clearer sell-off here.
➡️ If it breaks 90,352 with high volume, the path to ~93k is open.
⸻
🔴 Key support levels (red lines)
1. 86,890 USDT - Local Support/Trendline Retest.
2. 84,989 USDT - Stronger support.
3. 82,545 USDT - key support for the growth structure.
➡️ Loss of 86,890 + breakout from the trendline may mean a correction to around 85,000.
⸻
📉 RSI / Stochastic (bottom of the chart)
Stochastic RSI is:
✔️ In the growth phase
✔️ Approaching overheating level (80-100)
➡️ This often means that the upside momentum continues, but a local correction may be imminent, especially at the 90,352 resistance.
⸻
📌 Summary
🔼 Bullish Signals:
• Uptrend intact
• Breakout with an upward impulse candle
• The price is rebounding from the trend line
🔽 Bearish Signals:
• Stochastic RSI is approaching the “high” zone
• The price is under important resistance at 90,352
• Local pullback possible if resistance is not broken
⸻
⭐ Short-term scenarios (4H)
👉 Bullish scenario
• Maintaining price above 88,800-89,000
• Breakout 90,352
➡️ Target: 93,000 – 93,300 USDT
👉 Bears scenario
• Rejection from 90,352
• Back below 88,900
➡️ Downside target: 86,900 → 85,000 USDT
$BTC Approaching Red Box ~ This Is the Make or Break Moment!CRYPTOCAP:BTC is moving exactly as expected it’s now approaching marked red box.
We got the pump, prev high broke, retest came in, and another push followed.
This red box is a key supply zone.
If CRYPTOCAP:BTC gives a strong candle close above it, then we can expect more upside move ahead. 📈🔥
BTCUSDT Price Action Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline last week, falling to the $80,000 level before rebounding to close the week around $86,850. The price is currently encountering strong support near $84,000, with bulls aiming to defend this area in the days ahead. If this support fails, subsequent zones to watch include $75,000 and the high-volume region between $72,000 and $69,000. On the upside, the key resistance levels are $91,400 and $94,000, which will need to be reclaimed for bullish momentum to resume.
Technically, several indicators such as RSI are exhibiting oversold conditions, suggesting a potential for a short-term bounce, but overall market sentiment remains bearish following the downside break of a broadening wedge pattern. The medium-term target from this breakdown points toward a possible retest of the $70,000 zone, even if temporary rallies occur above $84,000. High volatility persists, with significant volume and price swings expected as traders react to macroeconomic and regulatory factors influencing the entire cryptocurrency market. The directional index (ADX), stochastic, and moving average metrics all reinforce the presence of a strong downtrend, with any sustained recovery requiring a notable shift in buyer demand above resistance
Bitcoin (BTC): Bullish Reversal Forming | Good R:R SetupThe zone liquidity came out much deeper than we thought, which resulted in the EMAs shifting far away from the current market price.
With the current reversal forming up and EMAs being far away (which usually act as good magnets in such a case), we are expecting a good upside movement from here.
Swallow Academy
There is a chance BTC can return the 80K zone - Data should confEven with the increase from 80K zone to up 86.7K, BTC is able to return from this zone into the breakdown trend, where this will go exactly the coming time frames, which should be confirmed with time. We need to confirm this, the data change, and the last data shows a bitcoin that can get a correction again.
e will have a heavy bitcooin drop in next few months Bitcoin Analysis Over the next few weeks, note that it has experienced heavy selling pressure and the market will most likely find itself in a long range-like phase. The reason is that after every heavy drop, we will have an upward correction phase or simply fluctuate within a time range until the big players decide for it. I have identified two ranges for you. If the price fails to break these limits, we will have a 100% continuation of the downtrend.
BITCOIN SIGNAL: BUY NOW!!!!!!!? (trap) Yello Paradisers! Enjoy the video!
And Paradisers! Keep in mind to trade only with a proper professional trading strategy. Wait for confirmations. Play with tactics. This is the only way you can be long-term profitable.
Remember, don’t trade without confirmations. Wait for them before creating a trade. Be disciplined, patient, and emotionally controlled. Only trade the highest probability setups with the greatest risk to reward ratio. This will ensure that you become a long-term profitable professional trader.
Don't be a gambler. Don't try to get rich quick. Make sure that your trading is professionally based on proper strategies and trade tactics.
BTCUSDTThe chart illustrates Bitcoin’s recent price action on the 30-minute timeframe, showing a steady recovery inside an ascending channel after a sharp prior sell-off. Price has been consistently respecting the green trendlines that define the channel, forming higher highs and higher lows as it climbs toward overhead resistance zones.
A broad blue consolidation zone occupies the middle of the chart, representing a region where price previously ranged before breaking upward. The latest candles are positioned near the upper boundary of this zone, suggesting a potential breakout. The chart highlights two major resistance levels, the first around $89,007, and a higher target near $91,044. Two upward arrows indicate a bullish projection, showing a possible continuation toward these resistance levels if momentum holds.
Below, the shaded red zones mark significant demand/support areas where buyers have previously stepped in—particularly around $84,739, and much lower near $81,000–$80,400. These areas act as safety nets should price pull back.
Multiple trendlines from earlier price action intersect above the current candles, showing previous downward pressure that has now been broken. The overall structure suggests an ongoing transition from a bearish drop to a controlled bullish climb within the channel.
In summary, the chart signals a constructive bullish setup: price is holding the ascending channel, attempting to break above local resistance, and eyeing higher targets if it can maintain strength.
Bitcoin (BTC): Bullish Start of The Week | Expecting Good PumpThe start of the week looks very promising on BTC, where last week we had a touch to 100 EMA, and now we are seeing a decent reversal to form. If all goes as planned, then this had to be the last dip around the 100 EMA, and now we should see a decent reversal to form, which then would give us a movement toward upper zones.
Currently aiming for the $100K area, but do not rush; this is just the start of the week.
Swallow Academy
BTCUSDT trade on a small 4-hour timeframeI've seen the latest news and funds may continue to reduce their positions in Bitcoin through spot ETFs, which will push old OG investors to another sell-off. Anyway, I think we are almost on the way to finish this huge correction and it's just a matter of the time when BTC will get back to growth, one thing I can say confidently is that we aren't in the bearish market yet, there will be at least another pump and huge growth until we dive into a bearish market. Seeing what Trump is doing right now and how much he is going to giveaway, we just have to be patient.
Bitcoin is falling via the Descending channel As observed in typical market behavior, a descending channel often emerges as a corrective structure following significant upward movements—precisely the pattern currently visible on the Bitcoin chart. This channel reflects a near-term consolidation phase, allowing the market to absorb previous gains and establish a new equilibrium.
A decisive breakout above the upper boundary of this channel, particularly when supported by increasing volume, would signal the resumption of the primary bullish trend. In such a scenario, a renewal of upward momentum could propel the market toward new all-time highs, aligning with the broader bullish market structure.
DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision))
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