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First Major Bounce 81.1kThe last Short was clearly premature, and was based purely on a technical level. Volume bust through it. Had I have waited for a stall and confirmed Distribution, the situation would have been better. Now that Shorts have been wiped, and the majority of the market is in a Long, I believe we can now drop to the first major bounce at 81.1k. When one side starts winning for an extended period of time, the losing side becomes "Unfavourable". Many who opened a Short and lost, fear opening another.
by reiiss7
Bitcoin: Key Levels to Watch at 118,312 and 112,500Bitcoin is showing early signs of weakness. If the price breaks below 118,312, it could confirm the beginning of a corrective move from the 109,000 level. The potential correction zone lies between 113,414 and 114,770, with a possible wick extension toward 112,500. However, for the broader bullish trend to remain valid, Bitcoin must hold above 112,500. 🔹 Trading Plan: A short position becomes viable if 118,312 is broken, but keep in mind this setup goes against the primary uptrend. In that case, it’s crucial to either take profits quickly or set the trade risk-free. If Bitcoin stays above 118,312, I will remain on the sidelines and wait for the market to build a clearer structure before entering any new positions. This is a market that rewards patience—don’t rush into trades without confirmation.
by CRYPTO_HUUNTER
BTC/USDT | BTC Rally +7% Gains – Bulls Still in Control (READ)By analyzing the Bitcoin chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that the price continued its rally as expected, hitting the $115K target and now reaching up to $117,200, just one step away from the next target at $118K. So far, this analysis has delivered more than 7% gains. I hope you made the most out of it! Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
by ArmanShabanTrading
7
BTC/USDT – Roadmap Toward $150K and BeyondIn previous analysis, we highlighted that BTC is in a re-accumulation phase, ranging above one of the most important trendlines of the current cycle. For more than 80 days, price has repeatedly tested this zone, each time showing strong bounces and rapid reactions, confirming the significance of this level. This sustained consolidation above the “magic trendline” is laying the groundwork for the next leg into price discovery. Should BTC achieve a decisive close above the red resistance box, the roadmap points toward a medium-term target of $150K, with the potential to extend further toward the $222K zone as liquidity unlocks and trend momentum accelerates.
Long
by Captain-MAO
1
Understanding Ichimoku Cloud In Trading🔹 1. Introduction What is Ichimoku Cloud? Ichimoku Kinko Hyo translates to “one‑glance equilibrium chart.” It is a rules‑based charting framework that maps trend, momentum, support/resistance, and forward projections in a single overlay so traders can make decisions quickly and objectively. What makes Ichimoku different? All‑in‑one system: Measures trend, momentum, and structure without adding separate indicators. Forward projection: The Cloud and Kumo twists project future support/resistance zones rather than only reacting to past price. Equilibrium logic: Midpoint calculations emphasize market balance over raw averages, often reacting more cleanly to range boundaries and trend pullbacks. Visual speed: Color/position relationships produce a high‑signal, low‑clutter read—hence “one glance.” 🔹 2. History Ichimoku was developed by Goichi Hosoda , a Japanese journalist who published under the pen name Ichimoku Sanjin. Between the 1930s and the 1960s, Hosoda and a team of assistants tested price and time relationships by hand, iterating toward a framework that could summarize market balance quickly without sacrificing structure. His work combined price, time, and wave ideas into a practical template that traders could learn and apply on paper charts. The well‑known numbers—9, 26, and 52—come from the historical Japanese trading calendar, which used a six‑day trading week. More importantly, they create a short‑medium‑long cadence that preserves the internal geometry of the system, helping Tenkan/Kijun interactions line up with Cloud behavior and Chikou confirmations across many market regimes. Ichimoku remains relevant because it projects future structure, scales across timeframes, and adapts well to liquid markets from equities and futures to forex and crypto. Even in a high‑frequency world, traders still respond to visible structure, and the Cloud makes that structure explicit ahead of time. 🔹 3. Benefits Ichimoku reads trend, momentum, and structure in one glance. Trend shows in where price sits relative to the Cloud and in the ordering/slope of the spans (Span A over Span B and rising is healthy). Momentum appears in the Tenkan–Kijun relationship—their distance and angle—and in how quickly price reclaims Tenkan after a pullback. Structure is revealed by flat Kijun and flat Span B “magnet” levels that price gravitates to, plus Cloud thickness, which hints at how much “effort” the market needs to break through. Because states and invalidations are predefined, visuals become rules you can trade: a close back inside the Cloud flags rising risk; Chikou clearing past highs removes nearby resistance; and entries are higher quality when Tenkan and Kijun align with a supportive, rising forward Cloud (often after a Kumo twist). The method scales cleanly from intraday to weekly and across assets. Many traders set bias with the higher-timeframe Cloud—only looking for longs when price is above a rising Kumo—then drop a timeframe to time entries as Tenkan/Kijun cross or as price retests Kijun from above. 🔹 4. Components Tenkan‑sen (Conversion Line): midpoint of the last 9 periods In a healthy trend, price frequently “breathes” around Tenkan—pulling back to it, briefly piercing it, then resuming in the trend direction. The slope of Tenkan reflects the pace of the move: a rising, well‑angled Tenkan suggests persistent buying pressure, while a flattening Tenkan signals short‑term balance. Tenkan often acts as dynamic support/resistance; repeated successful retests are a sign of momentum continuity, and repeated failures warn of loss of impulse. Tenkan = (Highest High(9) + Lowest Low(9)) / 2 Kijun‑sen (Base Line): midpoint of the last 26 periods Where Tenkan tracks impulse, Kijun represents the balance point of the dominant swing. Price tends to revert to Kijun after expansions, making it both a magnet and a filter. A rising Kijun with price holding above it confirms trend maturity; a flat Kijun often marks the range midline and a probable retest level. Many traders trail partial risk below Kijun in uptrends (or above it in downtrends) because losing Kijun typically precedes deeper mean reversion. Kijun = (Highest High(26) + Lowest Low(26)) / 2 Senkou Span A (Leading Span A): average of Tenkan and Kijun, plotted 26 periods forward Span A represents one boundary of the Kumo and reflects the average of the Tenkan and Kijun lines, making it more responsive to recent price action and a dynamic indicator of short-term trend direction. Span A = (Tenkan + Kijun) / 2 → shifted +26 Senkou Span B (Leading Span B): midpoint of the last 52 periods, plotted 26 periods forward Span B forms the opposite edge of the Cloud and is calculated from a 52-period high-low average, creating a flatter, more stable line that often acts as strong support or resistance due to its representation of longer-term equilibrium. Span B = (Highest High(52) + Lowest Low(52)) / 2 → shifted +26 Kumo (Cloud): the filled region between Span A and Span B; thickness visualizes volatility/“equilibrium buffer.” The shaded area between Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B on the Ichimoku chart. This "cloud" represents areas of support and resistance, with its thickness indicating market volatility and the strength of the equilibrium zone. A thicker Kumo suggests greater uncertainty and stronger price buffers, while a thinner Kumo indicates weaker support/resistance levels and reduced volatility. Chikou Span (Lagging Line): current close plotted 26 periods back; confirms alignment between current price and past price structure. Chikou plots the current close 26 periods back. When Chikou is above prior price and above the Cloud, the path ahead is typically “clear,” confirming bullish conditions. When it collides with past highs, lows, or Cloud edges, those features often act as retroactive obstacles; trades pressed directly into them carry lower odds and may require reduced size or patience for a cleaner setup. Chikou’s value is in context: it keeps you from buying breakouts that immediately smash into last month’s resistance or shorting into well‑defined support. Alignment of Chikou with price and the forward Cloud turns a visual impression into a rule. 🔹 5. Interpretation How to rate signal quality? Tenkan–Kijun cross (TK cross). A bullish TK cross occurs when Tenkan rises above Kijun; a bearish cross is the reverse. Crosses above the Cloud are strongest (trend‑aligned), inside the Cloud are neutral (higher noise), and below the Cloud are weakest for longs (and strongest for shorts). Cross quality improves when the forward Cloud agrees (Span A over Span B for bullish) and when Chikou has clear space. Chikou confirmation of breakouts. A breakout through a level is more trustworthy when Chikou is through and beyond the corresponding historical barrier. If Chikou is pinned beneath old highs while price breaks out, expect retests or false starts. Cloud breakouts and edge‑to‑edge logic. Breaks into or out of the Kumo carry more weight when the Cloud is turning (twist forming) and sloping in the trade direction. After a confirmed entry, price often traverses from one Cloud boundary to the other—especially when Span B is flat and acts like a target. Kumo as future balance point. The forward Cloud is a projected equilibrium. Flat spans, especially Span B, frequently attract price; thick areas behave as buffers, thin spots as gates. Reading these shapes ahead of time lets you plan scenarios rather than react. Multi‑timeframe alignment. Expectancy improves when the higher‑timeframe Cloud sets the bias and the lower timeframe supplies timing. For example, seek longs only when the daily is above a rising Cloud, then use a 1‑hour TK recapture or Kijun retest as the trigger. 🔹 6. Understanding the Kumo (Cloud) Kumo as Support/Resistance The Kumo is formed by the space between Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B projected 26 periods into the future. When price approaches the upper edge from below in a bearish regime, that boundary acts like resistance; when price descends onto the lower edge from above in a bullish regime, it often acts like support. Markets frequently hesitate, wick, or retest at these edges because they represent the consensus midpoint of prior swings carried forward in time. A thick Kumo implies a broad equilibrium buffer: price needs more energy to pass through, so reactions, pauses, or partial rejections are common. A thin Kumo implies a narrow buffer: price can pierce and switch sides with less effort, which increases the odds of swift transitions. Flat sections—especially where Span B is flat—often behave like shelves that attract price before it decides the next leg. Kumo Twist (Senkou Span A crosses B) A Kumo twist occurs when Span A crosses Span B in the forward projection, flipping the Cloud from bullish to bearish or vice versa. Because the spans are derived from midpoints, the twist is an early signal of changing balance rather than a guarantee of immediate reversal. It often appears while price is still inside the prior regime, and its reliability improves when accompanied by Kijun flattening, Tenkan/Kijun compression, or a Chikou approach to historical barriers. Trading before the twist can offer better entries but carries the risk of false starts if momentum doesn’t follow through. Trading after the twist sacrifices the first part of the move but benefits from confirmation—especially if the forward Cloud begins to slope in the new direction and price is already reclaiming or rejecting Kumo edges. Kumo Breakouts A Cloud breakout occurs when price closes out of the Kumo and holds that side on retests. A bullish breakout is a close above the upper boundary; a bearish breakout is a close below the lower boundary. Quality improves when the forward Cloud agrees (Span A over Span B for bullish, the reverse for bearish), the Cloud is thinning or already thin at the breakout point, and Chikou is simultaneously through the corresponding historical structure. False breakouts are common when the Cloud is thick and flat or when Chikou immediately collides with past highs/lows. Requiring a retest of the breached edge (turning resistance into support or vice versa) greatly improves expectancy, as does ensuring that Kijun is supportive (price holding above it in bullish contexts). Thin vs. Thick Kumo Thin Kumo generally reflects compressed ranges, fast transitions, and fragile trends. Breaks through thin spots tend to be quick but can reverse just as quickly if the rest of the system (TK alignment, Chikou, forward slope) doesn’t confirm. Thick Kumo reflects broader ranges and sturdier trends; passing through requires more energy, but holding the new side is more durable once achieved. You can think of width as a volatility filter: thin zones favor momentum pops and tactical trades; thick zones favor patience, staged entries, and giving the market room to breathe. Many traders normalize Cloud width by price or compare it to ATR to judge whether conditions suit breakout‑style entries or mean‑reversion fades. 🔹 7. Strategies Using Ichimoku Kumo as Support/Resistance This strategy uses Cloud edges as forward support/resistance. In an uptrend, pullbacks into the upper Kumo edge or into a flat Span B shelf often create decision zones; if price rejects the edge and recaptures Tenkan, the trend is likely intact. The opposite applies in downtrends. Entries typically trigger on a rejection close away from the edge or on the next bar that reclaims Tenkan. The stop sits outside the Cloud (beyond the pierced edge) to account for wicks. Expectancy improves when the forward Cloud thickens and rises (showing durable support) and when Kijun is rising beneath price. First targets are the recent swing extreme or the next flat Span B; if the bounce begins inside the Kumo, an “edge‑to‑edge” move toward the opposite boundary is a reasonable objective. High‑probability conditions: clear trend, supportive forward slope, and a bounce forming near a flat Span B rather than in the middle of a thin, twisting Cloud. Tenkan–Kijun Crossovers (TK Cross) in Context Crossovers are context tools, not standalone signals. A bullish TK cross (Tenkan above Kijun) that occurs above the Kumo with a bullish forward slope and Chikou clearance is the strongest variant. The same cross inside the Cloud is neutral, and below the Cloud is weak for longs (but strong for shorts in the opposite case). Early traders may take a cross below the Cloud when a twist and reclaim are imminent, but expectancy is lower without Cloud support. A practical sequence is: establish bias from the Cloud, wait for the TK cross in that direction, then demand either Chikou clearance or a clean retest before committing full risk. Stops belong beyond Kijun or the most recent swing that defined the cross. 🔹 8. Key Takeaways Ichimoku is a market framework, not a signal tool Ichimoku is designed to map equilibrium and project structure forward. Read it as a context engine: the Cloud sets regime and bias, Tenkan/Kijun express momentum and mean reversion, and Chikou verifies that the path ahead is clear. Decisions come from states and transitions—price vs. Kumo, span ordering and slope, TK alignment, and Chikou clearance—rather than from any one line crossing another. This is why the same template scales from intraday to weekly charts and across asset classes: you are reading the same language of balance, impulse, and structure. The synergy between components is the edge Edge emerges when the system agrees with itself. A TK cross is more than two lines intersecting; its quality depends on where it occurs relative to the Cloud, how the forward Kumo is sloped, and whether Chikou has cleared historical obstacles. Kijun provides risk structure and often serves as a dynamic stop or trailing guide; flat Span B and flat Kijun act as magnets and targets. When these elements line up—Cloud bias, TK timing, Chikou clearance, supportive forward slope—you have a trade worth taking. When they don’t, the right move is usually patience. Best practices checklist Use this short checklist to standardize your process and reduce discretion. Start with bias: Price relative to the Kumo and forward slope sets long/short/neutral. Demand confluence: Take signals when TK aligns with forward Cloud and Chikou shows clearance. Trade level‑to‑level: Plan entries/exits around flat Span B/Kijun shelves; they are natural magnets. Prefer break‑and‑retest: After a Cloud or key‑level break, wait for a retest and hold before sizing up. Avoid thick/flat Kumo: Stand aside or de‑risk when the Cloud is thick and horizontal; that’s chop territory. Use multi‑timeframe logic: Let the higher timeframe set bias; take lower timeframe triggers in that direction. Place stops beyond structure: Use Kijun or the Kumo edge instead of arbitrary ticks; give room for wicks. Scale and trail methodically: Take partials at Span B/Kijun targets; trail from Kijun → Tenkan as momentum builds. Size by volatility: Calibrate with ATR or relative Cloud width; widen stops and reduce size around twists. Let Chikou veto: If Chikou is about to collide with past highs/lows, delay or reduce risk. Treat Ichimoku as a map — the Cloud defines the terrain, TK tells you when to move, and Chikou checks that the road is clear. When the framework is not aligned, stand down. Trade only when the map, the timing, and the clearance agree; manage risk using the Kijun and the Cloud edges; and let neutrality be an acceptable outcome when the forecast is foggy.
Education
by CandelaCharts
Bitcoin: Possible ScenariosBTC daily has closed above 119k, keeping the probability of a breakout to a new high. I suggest possible scenarios: Failure to break above 124k from current levels and the formation of a Head & Shoulders right shoulder. Reasons: monthly timeframe divergence, overbought conditions, open interest imbalance, longs clearly outnumber shorts. Move to 130k from current levels. Reasons: crypto hype is still very strong, global recognition, government reserves, ETFs, strong pressure toward the 120k level, higher lows being formed. Breakout to a new high via a short squeeze, but sustained growth will be lacking. In this case, buyers will mostly be short-sellers being liquidated, with insufficient real demand to support price at higher levels. The move would wipe out the remaining weak shorts, after which a correction back to 108k–100k could follow. Reasons: monthly timeframe divergence, overbought conditions, open interest imbalance, excessive number of longs, too much hype and euphoria, political chaos in the US, overheated markets in general, especially the stock market. Crypto can surprise, but the technical picture still suggests a correction is approaching. This does not change my belief in Bitcoin’s long-term growth to seven-digit valuations — but not in a single rocket move, and not tomorrow.
Short
by Juliia
BTC 1H Analysis - Key Triggers Ahead | Day 51☃️ Welcome to the cryptos winter , I hope you’ve started your day well. ⏰ We’re analyzing BTC on the 1-Hour timeframe . 👀 On the 1-hour timeframe for Bitcoin, we can see that after this recent bullish leg, price has now reached its resistance at $120,827. If this resistance breaks — a zone packed with short orders — Bitcoin could start an extremely sharp and powerful upward leg, essentially triggering a short squeeze. At the moment, Bitcoin is entering a corrective phase; with the start of this correction, price could head down toward its Fibonacci retracement supports, bounce from one of those levels, and then form a new trading structure. 🧮 Looking at the RSI oscillator, price has been ranging around the 70 zone and briefly entered overbuy. It is now moving toward the 50 area, its oscillation mean. A break below 50 could deepen the correction, but if support holds, RSI could again head toward the resistance zone near 70 and re-test the overbought boundary. 🎮 The Fibonacci retracement drawn from the breakout at $114,562 to $120,827 highlights several strong support areas. The most important zones for Bitcoin are the 0.236 and 0.382 retracement levels. Support here, followed by a fresh structure, could set up strong trading opportunities. 🕯 The size and volume of buy candles have been exceptionally strong and increasing — something rarely seen in Bitcoin with such a one-sided move to the upside. Now, during this corrective phase, even as selling pressure appears, roughly 70% of that sell volume is being absorbed by buyers. What we must watch closely is how buyers decide to allocate capital from here. If the key Fibonacci levels are lost, we respect the market’s decision and only then consider new trades. 🧠 For a Bitcoin position If you don’t have an open position, I recommend waiting for a new structure to form at critical Fibonacci levels, and only enter after a breakout of that structure. If you already hold a position, consider partial profit-taking, since USDT dominance has also reached an important support zone. ❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .
by CryptosWinter
BITCOIN BTCUSDT BITCOIN ,the structure of the market tell us its direction.in the case of bitcoin the buy was clear on ascending trendline line as posted last week. now we are at daily resistance at 121,019.84 ,if we get rejected we will see temporary correction into 118-117k zone we will look for buy opportunity and target 122,800-123k zone and the next target will be 126800-127000 zone . full break of 126,800-127,00k will be holding till 147k-137k zone . #bitcoin #btcusdt #btc
Long
by Shavyfxhub
Next Volatility Period: Around October 14th Hello, traders! Follow us to get the latest information quickly. Have a great day! ------------------------------------- (BTCUSDT 1D Chart) This volatility period is expected to last until October 4th. Accordingly, the key question is whether it can find support near 119,177.56 and rise. If not, and the price declines, support near 115,854.56 will be crucial. If it finds support near 119,177.56 and rises, it is expected to challenge the Fibonacci ratio of 2.618 (133,889.92). The key areas for maintaining an uptrend are: - Short-term: 115,854.56-119,177.56, - Medium-term: 104,463.99-108,353.0, - Long-term: 87,814.27-93,570.28. - Thank you for reading. We wish you successful trading. -------------------------------------------------- - ​​Here's an explanation of the big picture. (3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern) I'll explain more in detail when the bear market begins. ------------------------------------------------------
by readCrypto
2
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) Technical Analysis – 3H ChartWave Structure Outlook Bitcoin is currently trading near $119,300, where the wave structure suggests a possible Ending Diagonal formation. This leaves us with two bearish scenarios to monitor: Scenario 1 – Immediate Downside After 1–5 Completion The 1–5 wave sequence may already be completed. If so, the market could trigger an immediate downside move, breaking wedge support. First critical level is $117,600. A clean break below this level would confirm the start of a deeper correction, opening the way toward $115,000 – $113,000. Scenario 2 – Choppy Ending Diagonal (Light Red Arrows) Alternatively, BTC may still extend within an Ending Diagonal. This would mean choppy, back-and-forth price action (small up-and-down moves) before the final breakdown. In this case, price may retest the $119,800 – $120,000 zone, but the structure remains corrective, and the eventual expectation is still bearish reversal. Key Levels to Watch Resistance: $119,800 – $120,000 (upper wedge boundary) Support: $117,600 (first breakdown level) Bearish Targets: $115,000 → $113,000 Conclusion BTC is losing momentum at the end of a 5-wave structure. Whether the market follows Scenario 1 (immediate breakdown) or Scenario 2 (choppy diagonal ending before reversal), the overall outlook is bearish in the short term.
Short
by CakirInsights
1
Bitcoin Faces $120K Resistance – Bull Trap or Breakout?Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) continued its uptrend of the last 2-3 days as I expected in my previous idea . Today, the announcement of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change index worked like a catalyst for Bitcoin . Bitcoin is currently surrounded by Resistance zones and a Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) , and is near the important price of $118,400(Volumetric importance) and the $120,000(Round Number) . From the perspective of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that Bitcoin could be in corrective waves and that the increase of the last few days could only serve as a Bull Trap . I expect Bitcoin to decline at least to the Support lines . Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $113,590-$111,900 Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $115,823-$115,087 Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $120,000-$118,000 Note: If Bitcoin falls below the Support zone($114,820-$113,180), we should expect further declines. CME Gap: $111,355-$109,915 Stop Loss(SL): $120,103 Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
52