Coinrule

Coinrule

The probably most often repeated saying in this newsletter is that history does not repeat but it rhymes. This is even more true when it comes to markets. November and December 2023 have treated Crypto markets exceptionally well. Bitcoin is well above the $40k and many Altcoins have been following. It also does not just feel like 'empty' euphoria. Actual...

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After nearly a year of swirling rumours, the threat of US regulatory and criminal enforcement against Crypto’s biggest Exchange Binance was still hanging over the market. These rumours can now finally be put to bed. The US Justice Department fined Binance $4.3bn (£3.4bn) in penalties and forfeitures. The exchanges’ iconic CEO CZ pleaded guilty to money laundering...

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In a week marked by substantial financial developments, none have captivated the attention of investors quite like the unfolding saga of BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF. The focus began to shift back onto the ETF topic after the iShares Bitcoin Trust was officially listed on the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), a crucial component of the U.S. market...

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As the market enters the final stretch of 2023, the cryptocurrency market—once considered a paragon of high-risk, high-reward investing—is sending mixed signals that defy traditional market logic and leave even seasoned investors scratching their heads. Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to show vulnerability to negative market forces. This vulnerability has been...

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Over recent weeks, a powerful trend known as bear steepening has been making waves in bond markets. Bear steepening occurs when long-dated yields, such as those on 10-year bonds, rise more aggressively, causing the yield curve to tilt steeper. It's helpful to visualise these 10-year yields as a continuum of the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rates for the...

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In a financial world where every decimal counts, today’s markets seem unfazed, displaying a calm stance amidst an onslaught of economic news. On the one hand, Bitcoin has taken impressive leaps in recent days, echoing trader sentiment as they navigate through a somewhat mixed U.S. inflation report. With the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) ticking up by 3.7%...

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Amidst a generally bearish month for cryptocurrencies, there was a glimmer of hope as bitcoin experienced a notable 6.7% rebound within a single day. This positive turn of events comes in the wake of the news of Greyscale's legal victory against the SEC concerning Bitcoin ETFs. Conversely, this week's developments also encompassed Powell delivering a hawkish...

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In a world where the pulse of global finance never rests, a seismic shift ripples from the heart of the U.S. monetary system. 2022 witnessed the Federal Reserve's audacious move to slim its colossal $9 trillion balance sheet, heralding the dawn of Quantitative Tightening (QT). But contrary to expectations, the effects of QT on asset prices were subtler than...

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On Tuesday, in a dramatic and unexpected move, renowned rating entity Fitch made the decision to downgrade the U.S. government's supreme credit rating. The U.S. was demoted to an AA+ status from its previously pristine AAA rating. The downgrade was driven by the projected fiscal decline over the coming three years, and the now-recurring last-minute debt ceiling...

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As we step into the riveting theatre of this week's markets, we find ourselves in a world where contrasts paint the canvas. Equity markets have been on a downward slide since Friday, while in contrast, cryptocurrency markets have seized the spotlight and made a remarkable upward shift with Bitcoin at the forefront. The surge seems to be fueled by renewed hope...

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Last Wednesday, inflation prints (CPI) came in below expectations of a ‘hot’ print which would have likely indicated that the Federal Reserve will continue tightening rates. Cryptocurrency and equities markets reacted positively while bond yields dropped. These numbers are expected to persuade the Fed to lean more towards a "pause" stance for its next FOMC meeting...

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In recent days, a variety of technology stocks have surged as a result of robust earnings reports. Microsoft's impressive cloud and AI performance have been particularly noteworthy, leading to a ~8% increase in its stock value. The company was on the verge of breaking its single-day record for market capitalization growth. In contrast, cryptocurrency markets...

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Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) went ahead with the 25bps hike that many expected, causing a spike in the U.S. dollar and a temporary halt to the rally that equities and risk-on assets were experiencing. This rate hike has come under scrutiny from market analysts. In the past two weeks since Silicon Valley Bank ( SVB ) and Silvergate Capital collapsed, there...

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Two financial institutions, Silvergate Capital and Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), collapsed early last week due to a series of ill-fated investment decisions which were exposed by global interest rate tightening. The collapses came after the institutions invested large amounts of capital in long-dated US government bonds, which were considered relatively low risk....

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Since the start of January, most leading macro markets have experienced a reversal around their 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels. However, BTC has shown resilience and fought the cross-asset sell-off. This divergence is likely driven by the fact that there has been over $1 trillion in net liquidity added to the market since the bottom in October, primarily...

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U.S. CPI inflation data was published on Tuesday. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, inflation data came in hot at 0.21% above expectations. Despite inflation slowing YoY, expectations had been that current data would come out lower. Consequently, risk assets and equities have taken a short-term hit whilst the dollar gained some bullish momentum as this data...

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On February 1st, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a widely-expected 25bps rate hike. This was the rallying cry for the current market rally to continue. Is this confidence warranted? An interesting note is that the FOMC meeting minutes and the associated press conference appeared contradictory in nature because there was not a straightforward hawkish or dovish...

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On February 1st, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes were released, and the Fed announced a 25bps rate hike. As such, markets started to rally. An interesting note is that the FOMC meeting minutes and the associated press conference appeared contradictory in nature because there was not a straightforward hawkish or dovish narrative across...