Coinrule

Coinrule

One often-shared myth among crypto traders is that of 'Uptober'. After a slow summer, markets tend to pick up in October. This is somewhat based on historical data. October is the third-best best performing month for crypto assets after November and April going all the way back to 2012. Expectations for this current October are set high after the long-awaited...

Coinrule

This week, the Federal Reserve delivered a highly anticipated 50 basis point interest rate cut, the first of its kind in over four years. Crypto markets, as expected, reacted swiftly, with Bitcoin jumping over 4% and breaking past the $62,000 level. The broader cryptocurrency market followed, with Ethereum, Solana, and others posting gains as investors...

Coinrule

The current market setup can be described as 'Waiting for Godot'. But in contrast to the Samuel Beckett play, markets are awaiting the Federal Reserve to finally start cutting interest rates. And hopefully, also unlike in the actual play, the wait will not be eternal. Over the past week, market sentiment dropped even further. Jitters about the slowing US economy...

Coinrule

Not terribly much has happened in terms of price action or news over the past week or so. The majors such as Bitcoin have mostly been moving sideways. The markets are in the grip of late summer slowness. The eventfulness of some recent weeks has subsided. But if you think that traders are using this calm period to catch some breath, you would be wrong. The overall...

Coinrule

The Widowmaker trade became famous in the 1990s and 2000s. It was a bet on the price of Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) going down. Given the Japanese government's ever growing debt levels, many traders assumed that the Bank of Japan would not be able to maintain 0%, or even negative interest rates, permanently. Yet, anyone who bet against JGBs lost for over 3...

Coinrule

With some exceptions, Ethereum has been a pain trade throughout most of this cycle. Major rallies for Bitcoin, Solana and various meme coins saw the majority of gains this cycle. Ethereum is still up considerably from its 2022/23 lows but relatively less. But this was about to change, or so the expectation of many went. Ethereum Spot ETFs finally began trading on...

Coinrule

It is easy to tell the story of Bitcoin’s price movement this year. We first saw a nearly parabolic rise in price following the ETF approval. Bitcoin's value then fluctuated between $60,000 and $70,000 for several months. Momentum was building up for a breakout either upwards or downwards. The more the traditionally slower summer months approached, the less likely...

Coinrule

The bull market of 2024 has lost steam. Bitcoin's price, which was initially pushed up by ETF flow and the momentum surrounding its halving, has been slowly retreating since it briefly reached a new All Time High in March this year. Altcoins are mostly experiencing a depressing market in 2024. Except for a brief memecoin frenzy, the prices of most projects are...

Coinrule

An Echo Bubble is not a concept familiar to traditional finance traders. In Crypto, the concept was popularised by the famous trader known as GCR. It's the idea that a mini-bubble 'echoes' a previous big bubble in a subsequent time period. In 2019, Crypto markets saw a short-lived echo bubble that followed the 2017 rally. Given how immense the 2021 market grew,...

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A few weeks of limited volatility and ranging between the $60k and FWB:67K range for Bitcoin are keeping traders in suspense. This was well captured by a few days of relatively low inflows/outflows to the Bitcoin ETFs over the last week. The trend seems to have turned however as this week saw $726m of inflows so far. In times of little price action, crypto...

Coinrule

After rallying to a new Bitcoin all-time high in March, markets had looked without momentum for weeks. New catalysts such as an Ethereum ETF approval look very unlikely. The launch of new Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Hong Kong has not attracted meaningful volumes. The much-anticipated announcement of the Eigenlayer token in the Ethereum ecosystem led to more...

Coinrule

When you are reading this, Bitcoin's fourth halving is imminent. The reward that miners will receive for each block every 10 minutes will drop from 625 Bitcoins to 3,125 Bitcoins. Bitcoin's halving will result in a reduction of the annual Bitcoin supply from 1.6% to 0.8%. But this halving will also bring the launch of the highly anticipated protocol and Bitcoin...

Coinrule

The last few months have been a spaceship for those of us lucky enough to be trading crypto. The Bitcoin ETF has been approved. Markets have gone up multiples. Bitcoin hit a new all-time high. Airdrops of newly launched projects like Celestia, Dymension, Jupiter, Ethena and Wormhole have filled the pockets of power users. On top of it all, so-called memecoins such...

Coinrule

Ethereum has had some very turbulent weeks. For one, its price has finally been rallying. After months of underperforming versus new-narrative chains like Solana, Ethereum had started to steadily approach its All-Time High. One of the drivers of the excitement: The Dencun upgrade was introduced last week. The upgrade reduced the transaction costs for Ethereum...

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There is one thing that beginner traders rarely understand about bull markets. Traders can lose money in a bull market as much as in a bear market. This week reminded us about the brutal volatility that makes crypto both loved and feared. The market briefly went into a tailspin after a rejection just above the $69,000 previous all-time high. The Bitcoin price then...

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Last week OpenAI CEO Sam Altman expressed his desire to raise $7 trillion or 3.5 times the total crypto market capital to fund chip design and manufacture to meet increasing demand for artificial intelligence (AI) technology. This investment is so large that it has inspired participants to think more in terms of exponential growth. Why are we talking about this in...

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It is rare that this column starts with a chart of Ethereum. On first glance, now seems to be an even stranger time to do so. While BTC has seen a >2x run-up and projects like Solana grew multiples, ETH stood out as the so-called 'most hated coin' of the cycle so far. However, it seems that the time for this narrative to change is approaching fast. Four main...

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A popular market saying advises to buy the rumour and sell the news. Much of the debates prior to the Bitcoin Spot ETF approval centred on the question whether the eventual approval will turn out to be such a sell the news event. With Bitcoin's drop to below $40k, after a brief peak when it touched $50k, the ETF rally has clearly run out of pace. At least in the...