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Global Shadow Banking System in the World MarketIntroduction The global financial system is not confined to traditional banks and regulated institutions. A vast parallel network of financial intermediaries—commonly referred to as the shadow banking system—plays an increasingly important role in the allocation of credit, liquidity, and investment flows across the world. Unlike conventional banks, shadow banking entities operate outside the traditional regulatory framework, which makes them both a source of innovation and a potential systemic risk. The global shadow banking system has expanded significantly since the 1980s, especially after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC), when regulatory reforms tightened the space for traditional banks. This expansion has reshaped global capital markets, influencing liquidity, credit creation, and financial stability in both developed and emerging economies. In this article, we explore the definition, evolution, key players, economic significance, risks, and regulatory perspectives of shadow banking worldwide. What is Shadow Banking? The term “shadow banking” was popularized by Paul McCulley in 2007 to describe credit intermediation carried out by entities and activities outside the regular banking system. Characteristics of Shadow Banking: Outside traditional regulation – Unlike commercial banks, they are not subject to strict regulatory oversight. Maturity transformation – Borrow short-term (like money market funds) and lend long-term (like securitization). Credit intermediation – Facilitate loans, investments, and securities issuance without being a formal bank. Market-based funding – Depend heavily on capital markets rather than deposits. Examples include hedge funds, private equity firms, securitization vehicles, money market funds, structured investment vehicles (SIVs), and peer-to-peer lending platforms. Evolution of Shadow Banking Globally 1. Early Foundations (1980s–1990s) Liberalization of financial markets in the US and Europe created space for non-bank financial intermediaries. Development of securitization and derivative markets enabled institutions to bypass banking regulations. 2. Shadow Banking Before 2008 Crisis Rapid growth in securitization and off-balance-sheet vehicles by investment banks. Heavy reliance on short-term wholesale funding. Played a crucial role in housing bubbles and subprime lending. 3. Shadow Banking Post-2008 Traditional banks faced stricter rules under Basel III, which limited leverage. Non-bank intermediaries stepped in to provide credit and liquidity. Growth of fintech, peer-to-peer lending, and private debt markets. 4. Current Landscape (2020s) Shadow banking assets estimated at over $65 trillion globally (FSB estimates). Largest contributors: US, China, EU, and Japan. Increasing role in corporate bond markets, private credit funds, and asset management. Key Components of the Global Shadow Banking System 1. Money Market Funds (MMFs) Provide liquidity to corporations and investors. Offer an alternative to bank deposits. Vulnerable to “runs” during market stress (e.g., 2008 Reserve Primary Fund collapse). 2. Securitization Vehicles Pool loans (mortgages, auto loans, credit card receivables) and sell them as securities. Increase market liquidity but spread systemic risk (subprime mortgage crisis example). 3. Hedge Funds & Private Equity Engage in leveraged trading, arbitrage, and alternative financing. Play a role in distressed debt markets and private credit. 4. Structured Investment Vehicles (SIVs) Borrow short-term via commercial paper and invest in long-term securities. Collapsed massively during 2008 due to maturity mismatch. 5. Fintech & Peer-to-Peer (P2P) Lending New entrants disrupting credit markets. Provide credit access in regions underserved by banks (especially Asia & Africa). 6. Repo Markets (Repurchase Agreements) Allow institutions to borrow against securities. Critical for liquidity but highly vulnerable to shocks. Role of Shadow Banking in the World Market 1. Enhancing Credit Availability Shadow banks channel funds to sectors and borrowers often ignored by traditional banks, such as startups, SMEs, and high-risk borrowers. 2. Supporting Market Liquidity By engaging in repo transactions, securitizations, and asset trading, shadow banks provide crucial liquidity to global capital markets. 3. Diversification of Financial Intermediation Non-bank intermediaries add resilience by diversifying sources of credit, reducing dependency on commercial banks. 4. Innovation in Financial Products Structured finance, fintech lending, and alternative investments often originate in the shadow banking world. 5. Supporting Economic Growth in Emerging Markets In economies like China and India, shadow banking has filled gaps left by traditional banks, fueling entrepreneurship and private sector expansion. Global Distribution of Shadow Banking United States Largest shadow banking system, estimated at over $20 trillion. Dominated by money market funds, securitization vehicles, and hedge funds. Plays a crucial role in corporate debt and mortgage markets. European Union Asset managers, insurance firms, and pension funds are key players. Growth of investment funds post-crisis due to stricter banking rules. Concerns about systemic risks in bond markets. China Rapid expansion since 2010, driven by trust companies, wealth management products, and online lending platforms. Estimated shadow banking assets exceed $10 trillion. Important for private enterprises but also a source of hidden credit risks. Japan Smaller but stable shadow banking sector. Strong presence of insurance firms and pension funds in capital markets. Emerging Markets Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia seeing rapid rise in P2P lending and fintech-based shadow banking. Helps bridge financial inclusion gaps. Risks Associated with Shadow Banking 1. Systemic Risk & Contagion Interconnectedness with traditional banks can spread financial shocks. Example: 2008 crisis, where collapse of mortgage-backed securities destabilized global banking. 2. Liquidity Risks Heavy reliance on short-term funding can trigger “runs” during stress. 3. Leverage & Opacity Use of complex derivatives and leverage amplifies risk. Lack of transparency makes it difficult to assess exposures. 4. Regulatory Arbitrage Entities exploit gaps in regulations to bypass banking restrictions. 5. Credit Risk Shadow banks often lend to riskier borrowers. Defaults can create chain reactions. 6. Cross-Border Risks Global nature of shadow banking spreads financial risks internationally. Regulatory Responses to Shadow Banking 1. Financial Stability Board (FSB) Established frameworks for monitoring shadow banking globally. Tracks size, activities, and systemic risks. 2. Basel III & IV Regulations Tightened rules for banks to reduce dependence on shadow structures. 3. US Regulations Dodd-Frank Act imposed stricter oversight on securitization and hedge funds. SEC regulates money market funds. 4. China’s Crackdown Government tightened controls on wealth management products and online lending. Efforts to shift shadow credit back into regulated banks. 5. EU Initiatives European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) oversees investment funds. Implementation of reforms in repo and securitization markets. Opportunities & Benefits of Shadow Banking Financial Innovation – Expands new financing models like crowdfunding and digital lending. Economic Growth – Provides credit for small businesses and consumers. Investment Opportunities – Offers investors access to higher-yield products. Resilience to Banking Crises – Provides alternative funding channels when banks restrict lending. Future of Shadow Banking in the Global Market 1. Growth in Emerging Economies Shadow banking is expected to expand in Asia, Africa, and Latin America due to financial inclusion needs and fintech innovation. 2. Digital Transformation Fintech platforms, blockchain-based lending, and decentralized finance (DeFi) could become part of shadow banking 2.0. 3. Stricter Oversight Governments and regulators will likely tighten monitoring to reduce systemic risks. 4. Integration with Traditional Banks Many shadow banking activities are becoming more closely linked to commercial banks through partnerships and acquisitions. 5. Sustainable Finance & ESG Integration Shadow banks may play a role in financing green bonds, renewable energy, and sustainable projects. Conclusion The global shadow banking system has become a central pillar of modern financial markets. By providing credit, liquidity, and innovative financial solutions, shadow banks complement the traditional banking system. However, the very features that make them attractive—regulatory flexibility, market-based funding, and risk-taking—also create vulnerabilities. The world market depends on shadow banking for economic dynamism, but unchecked growth could destabilize financial systems, as witnessed in 2008. The challenge lies in balancing innovation with oversight, ensuring that shadow banking continues to support global economic growth without creating hidden systemic risks. As financial markets evolve with technology, shadow banking will continue to expand, especially in emerging economies. Policymakers, investors, and global institutions must remain vigilant to manage both its opportunities and threats in shaping the future of the world economy.
NASDAQ:AMZNEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
Role of Derivatives Trading in Emerging Market Economies1. Understanding Emerging Market Economies Emerging market economies are nations that are in the process of rapid industrialization, modernization, and integration into the global economy. They often share certain characteristics: High but volatile growth rates Developing financial markets Growing participation of foreign investors Vulnerability to external shocks and capital flows Examples include India, China, Brazil, Russia, South Africa, Turkey, and Mexico. While these markets are attractive due to their growth potential, they are also riskier than developed economies because of factors such as political instability, regulatory weaknesses, and lower market maturity. Derivatives trading in such economies serves as a risk-management and capital-attraction tool that helps balance opportunities with vulnerabilities. 2. Evolution of Derivatives in Emerging Markets Historically, derivatives markets developed first in developed countries, particularly with agricultural and commodity futures trading in the 19th century (Chicago Board of Trade, 1848). In emerging markets, however, derivatives trading began much later—often after financial liberalization policies in the 1980s and 1990s. For example: India: Introduced exchange-traded derivatives in 2000 (NSE launched index futures). Today, India is among the largest derivatives markets by volume. Brazil: The BM&FBovespa (now B3) became a hub for derivatives on interest rates and commodities. China: Initially cautious, but now home to one of the world’s busiest futures exchanges, particularly for commodities like steel and oil. South Africa: Developed sophisticated derivatives markets tied to mining and energy. This evolution reflects both domestic demand (hedging currency, commodity, and interest rate risks) and international demand (foreign investors requiring instruments to manage risks in volatile markets). 3. Functions of Derivatives in Emerging Economies Derivatives trading plays a range of roles in EMEs, which can be grouped into several core functions: 3.1 Risk Management and Hedging Emerging markets are characterized by volatility in currency values, commodity prices, and interest rates. Derivatives allow businesses and investors to protect themselves: Exporters can hedge against currency fluctuations. Farmers and commodity producers hedge against price swings in agricultural or mineral products. Corporations hedge against interest rate risks in volatile debt markets. Example: An Indian IT company earning revenue in USD can use currency futures to lock in an exchange rate, ensuring predictable rupee earnings. 3.2 Price Discovery Derivatives markets often provide more accurate and forward-looking price information than spot markets. Futures and options reveal investor expectations of future prices, which helps businesses and policymakers in decision-making. 3.3 Enhancing Liquidity Derivatives attract both hedgers and speculators, which increases market activity. This liquidity makes it easier for participants to buy or sell assets, reducing transaction costs and market inefficiencies. 3.4 Access to International Capital A robust derivatives market signals maturity, attracting foreign institutional investors (FIIs) who seek to manage risk while investing in volatile markets. This helps channel global capital into EMEs. 3.5 Promoting Financial Innovation Derivatives markets often stimulate the creation of new products, risk models, and investment strategies, fostering overall financial sector development. 4. Benefits of Derivatives Trading for Emerging Markets 4.1 Stabilizing Volatile Economies EMEs are prone to sudden swings due to external shocks—commodity price changes, global interest rate hikes, or geopolitical risks. Derivatives allow participants to absorb shocks by distributing risks across the market. 4.2 Supporting Agricultural and Commodity Sectors In commodity-dependent economies (e.g., Brazil, Indonesia, Nigeria), derivatives protect farmers and producers from price crashes, ensuring sustainable incomes and investment. 4.3 Enhancing Investor Confidence Transparent and well-regulated derivatives markets boost confidence among domestic and foreign investors, as risks can be effectively managed. 4.4 Deepening Financial Markets Derivatives encourage greater participation from institutional investors, retail traders, and international funds, thus broadening and deepening local financial markets. 4.5 Driving Economic Growth By stabilizing markets, encouraging investments, and improving efficiency, derivatives contribute indirectly to economic growth and development. 5. Challenges and Risks of Derivatives in Emerging Economies While derivatives offer multiple benefits, they also carry risks that are particularly pronounced in EMEs: 5.1 Market Misuse and Speculation Derivatives can fuel excessive speculation, leading to bubbles and crashes, especially when regulatory oversight is weak. 5.2 Systemic Risk In economies with underdeveloped banking systems, poorly managed derivatives exposures can trigger systemic crises. Example: The 1997 Asian Financial Crisis was amplified by the misuse of derivatives in Thailand and South Korea. 5.3 Regulatory Weaknesses Many EMEs lack robust regulatory infrastructure to monitor complex derivatives products, making them vulnerable to fraud and manipulation. 5.4 Limited Awareness and Education Corporate treasurers, farmers, and retail investors often lack financial literacy about derivatives, which can lead to misuse. 5.5 Currency and Capital Flow Volatility Excessive reliance on derivatives for currency speculation can increase volatility rather than reduce it, making economies more fragile. 6. Case Studies 6.1 India India’s derivatives market has grown exponentially since 2000. NSE and BSE offer index futures, stock options, currency futures, and commodity derivatives. Positive impact: India’s IT exporters and oil importers actively use derivatives to hedge risks. Challenges: Retail investors often misuse options for speculation, leading to losses. 6.2 Brazil Brazil has one of the most liquid derivatives markets in Latin America. Interest rate futures and currency derivatives are heavily used. Positive impact: Allowed Brazil to attract foreign investors despite inflationary history. Negative impact: Speculative flows sometimes worsen currency volatility. 6.3 China China’s commodity futures markets (iron ore, oil, steel) are among the world’s busiest. Positive impact: Provided hedging tools for its massive manufacturing sector. Negative impact: Retail speculation has sometimes distorted markets. 7. Policy and Regulatory Framework To ensure derivatives benefit EMEs, strong policies are essential: Robust regulation to prevent misuse and protect investors. Transparent exchanges with strong clearinghouses to reduce counterparty risks. Investor education to improve awareness. International integration while safeguarding against speculative capital inflows. Regulators like SEBI in India, CVM in Brazil, and CSRC in China play central roles in shaping market safety and growth. 8. Future Outlook The role of derivatives in emerging markets is expected to expand further due to: Digital platforms and fintech increasing retail participation. Cross-border derivatives trading linking EMEs to global markets. Green finance and carbon credit derivatives in response to climate change. Crypto derivatives in some EMEs experimenting with digital assets. Emerging markets will likely see derivatives becoming integral to financial stability, though only if supported by strong regulation and financial literacy campaigns. Conclusion Derivatives trading plays a dual role in emerging market economies: it is both a stabilizer and a potential destabilizer. On one hand, it enables risk management, attracts international capital, supports commodity producers, and deepens financial markets. On the other hand, without strong regulatory oversight, it can amplify speculation and systemic risks. For EMEs, the challenge is to harness the benefits while mitigating the risks. This requires building robust financial institutions, improving market literacy, and ensuring transparent regulations. As globalization deepens, derivatives will remain central to the integration of emerging economies into the world financial system—acting as both a shield against volatility and a bridge to global capital flows.
NASDAQ:AMZNEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
The #1 Chart Pattern:Ascending Triangle - Amazon StockMan am doing my research and did you know that you can start a business using your trading skills? This is mind blowing to me i didn't think a skill like trading can actually be a full time professional career. So here i am banging my head against the wall thinking trading is a hustlers game with no professional career at the end of the tunnel. But this thought is so false.Guys trading is a real business infact its the highest form of business out here. If you take this thing serious it can lead to your financial freedom. Because of this am going to have a professional trading career in the future you guys. I didn't know that it gets this huge. Am so humbled by this. The fact that the government recognises trading as a skill has really humbled me And now am starting to appreciate people like Robert Kiyosaki. Who keep encouraging young people to take up financial education and change their lives. My life has changed or at least my mindset has seen beyond what my poor brain could imagine man. Anyway look at this chart. NASDAQ:AMZN Look at the stochastic..(14,3,3) When that blue line crosses above the orange line It will signal an entry signal. But dont be excited and expect the price to jump up immediately. The pattern is called "Ascending triangle" This means the price will bounce off the resistance. before it breakouts out.. That bounce from resistance will form higher lows which get closer to the breakout point. The Spinning Top White Is The Candlestick charting technique am using here Which i learnt from reading Steve Nison's Book On Japanese Charting Techniques, second edition. Rocket boost this content to learn more. Disclaimer: Trading is risky please risk management and profit taking strategies. Also feel free to use a simulation trading account. Also dont trade Zero day options that expire in one day, please take this as a serious warning.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by lubosi
AMZN – Coiling Snap Back as Gamma Signals Set the Range Sep 291-Hour Technical Outlook
Amazon is still moving inside a descending channel that’s been intact for over a week. Price has been repeatedly testing the $217.5–$218 support while carving out slightly higher lows—early signs of a basing attempt. Current price near $220 is rubbing against the channel’s downtrend line. MACD histogram is building positively and Stoch RSI is holding in bullish territory, hinting at upside momentum if buyers press through resistance.
Key upside levels are $221.5 and $222.5, followed by the major swing zone at $227.5–$230. Support rests at $218.1, then $216.5, where a decisive break could open a retest of the recent lows near $215. Gamma Exposure (GEX) Confirmation:

 Options positioning strengthens the map: * Highest positive GEX / Call Resistance sits at $225, aligning with the top of the recent structure. * A dense second call wall clusters at $222.5, which explains why price has stalled there. * On the downside, dealers show heavy put support at $217.5 and $215, matching the key channel floor. If AMZN can close above $222.5 with volume, gamma hedging could fuel a quick push to $227.5–$230. A sustained drop through $216.5 would likely bring dealer-driven pressure to $215. Trade Ideas & Option Plays for This Week * Bullish Play: Enter on an hourly close above $222.5, targeting $227.5–$230. Options: 1-week 222.5 calls or a 222.5/227.5 call debit spread for lower risk. * Bearish Play: Short below $216.5, targeting $215 and possibly $212.5. Consider short-dated puts or 217.5/212.5 put spreads. * IVR around 27.9 and IVx avg near 34 means premiums are moderate—good for defined-risk spreads. My Take
AMZN is setting up for a clean range expansion. A decisive breakout above $222.5 would turn the short-term tide bullish with room to $230. But if $216.5 cracks, sellers could quickly push to the $215 zone. Watch the open and first hour closely—gamma levels and volume will tell the story. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk before trading.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by BullBearInsights
Amazon Building Launch Pad - ABC Flat Appears as if this is forming a perfect ABC Flat correction, however tis market is so bull it may start next week from this price, if we can get some seasonal weakness in October hoping it fills the GAP. Leg into longs if it continues to decline. But interestingly enough, what I have found in the past , is that the stock seems to be weak in the 4th quarter, which seems contrary to the fact that it does so much retail business in those months, and actually bulls hard in 1st quarter. So i think its worth watching to see what happens this time around.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by azdevil
AMAZON STOCKS AMAZON stocks pulled out of trend and picked liquidity and back on bullish path, the key drivers for the uptrend will be the following investment into critical infrastructure its building with a strong diversified portfolio in the following Amazon Web Services (AWS) Growth: AWS remains Amazon’s largest and most profitable division, generating over $30 billion in quarterly revenue. Demand for cloud infrastructure, especially driven by artificial intelligence workloads and enterprise digital transformation, is fueling AWS growth. AWS’s market share is around 31%, making it the global leader, and new initiatives like AI chatbot Nova add to future growth potential. Advertising Revenue Expansion: Amazon’s advertising business is rapidly growing, reaching $15.7 billion in revenue in Q2 2025, up 22% year-over-year. Its robust platform, spanning e-commerce, Prime Video, Twitch, and partnerships with Roku and Disney, positions Amazon as a major digital advertising player. Innovation in Robotics and Logistics: Investments in robotics and warehouse automation, including deploying over one million robots and launching same-day grocery delivery, are improving operational efficiency, reducing costs, and supporting faster delivery. These innovations enhance Amazon’s competitive moat. E-commerce and Fresh Grocery Expansion: Amazon's push into fresh grocery and same-day delivery strengthens its retail presence against competitors like Walmart and Instacart, capturing growing consumer demand for convenience. Profitability and Margin Improvement: The company is showing rising operating income and improved profit margins in both North American and international operations due to operational efficiencies and disciplined cost management. International Expansion: Emerging markets present opportunities to increase digital retail penetration, expand Prime subscriptions, and grow AWS adoption. AI Integration and Products: Ongoing AI integrations across AWS, e-commerce, and devices (e.g., Alexa+) drive innovation and customer engagement. Strategic Partnerships: Collaborations with Disney, Roku, and others in advertising and streaming enhance ecosystem stickiness and revenue diversity. Large Market Cap and Financial Health: With a market cap around $2.5 trillion and strong cash flow generation, Amazon has robust resources to invest in growth. Potential New Market Entrants: Entry into new markets through acquisitions or innovations could unlock further upside. Amazon is doubling down on AI investments, especially through its cloud computing arm AWS, to develop generative AI capabilities. The company has invested billions in AI startups like Anthropic (over $8 billion), aiming to strengthen AI collaborations and embed AI-powered products across Amazon services. Top Companies and Shareholders Holding Amazon Shares in 2025 Jeff Bezos (Founder and Executive Chairman): Owns around 883 million shares (about 8.3% of the company). Despite recent sales of some shares, Bezos remains the largest individual shareholder with a stake valued at approximately $197 billion. Andrew Jassy (CEO): Holds about 2.2 million shares (a small fraction but significant insider holding), representing his commitment and confidence in the company. Major Institutional Investors and Asset Managers: The Vanguard Group: Holds approximately 7.4% of Amazon’s shares, making it one of the largest institutional investors by assets under management. BlackRock, Inc.: Owns about 6.1% of the outstanding shares and is another top institutional holder globally. State Street Corporation: A major institutional investor with multi-billion-dollar holdings. Fidelity Investments: Another top holder known for active management and long-term investments. Geode Capital Management: Significant institutional stake, often involved in indexing and fund management. Top Hedge Funds Holding Amazon: Coatue Management Adage Capital Management Tiger Global Management Skye Global Management Two Sigma Investments Major Companies Owned by Amazon Whole Foods Market: A leading organic grocery chain, acquired in 2017, expanding Amazon's footprint in physical retail and groceries. Zappos: An online shoe and clothing retailer known for exceptional customer service, acquired in 2009. Twitch: The popular live streaming platform, especially for gamers and e-sports, acquired in 2014. IMDb: The Internet Movie Database, an online repository for films, TV shows, and celebrity information, acquired in 1998. PillPack: An online pharmacy that offers sorted medication delivery, acquired in 2018, marking Amazon's entrance into healthcare. Goodreads: A social platform for book lovers to review and discuss literature, acquired in 2013. Souq.com: A major e-commerce platform in the Middle East, acquired in 2017 to strengthen Amazon’s presence in that region. Ring: Manufacturer of smart doorbells and security cameras, acquired in 2018, integrated with Amazon's home device ecosystem. ComiXology: A digital platform for comics and graphic novels, acquired in 2014. Woot: An online deals retailer known for daily limited-time offers, acquired in 2010. MGM (Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer): Acquired in 2021, MGM is a legendary film and TV studio that bolsters Amazon Prime Video’s content library. Kuiper Systems: Amazon’s ambitious satellite internet project aimed at providing global broadband connectivity. Amazon's Subsidiaries also include: Amazon Web Services (AWS): The highly profitable cloud computing division offering infrastructure, software, and AI services. Amazon Robotics: Specializing in warehouse automation and robotics technology. Amazon Fresh and Amazon Go: Physical grocery and convenience stores specializing in fresh food and cashier-less shopping experiences. Zoox: An autonomous vehicle startup acquired to develop self-driving car technologies. This extensive network of companies helps Amazon diversify revenue streams, expand ecosystem lock-in, and innovate across multiple sectors. Wall Street analysts remain bullish on Amazon, with many maintaining a "Strong Buy" rating based on these catalysts. NOTE;218.52 BUY POSITION IS GOOD AND TARGET WILL BE 283.74. #AMAZON #STOCKS
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by Shavyfxhub
Introduction to Commodity Supercycle1. Understanding Commodities Commodities are basic goods used in commerce that are interchangeable with other goods of the same type. They serve as the foundation of the global economy and are divided into several categories: Energy commodities – oil, natural gas, coal Metals – gold, silver, copper, aluminum Agricultural commodities – wheat, corn, soybeans, coffee Livestock – cattle, pork, poultry Commodities are distinguished from manufactured products by their standardization and global demand. A barrel of crude oil, for example, is fundamentally the same regardless of producer, allowing it to be traded globally. 2. What is a Commodity Supercycle? A commodity supercycle refers to an extended period, often lasting 10–30 years, during which commodity prices trend above their long-term average due to structural changes in global demand and supply. Unlike regular commodity cycles, which are typically shorter (3–5 years), supercycles are driven by macroeconomic forces rather than temporary market fluctuations. Key characteristics of a commodity supercycle include: Prolonged high prices – commodity prices remain above historical averages for extended periods. Global demand drivers – typically fueled by emerging markets’ industrialization and urbanization. Supply constraints – limited capacity to quickly increase production. Inflationary pressures – rising commodity prices impact broader inflation trends. Investment opportunities – commodities and related assets tend to outperform other asset classes. 3. Historical Perspective of Commodity Supercycles Commodity supercycles are not a new phenomenon. Historical analysis highlights several key supercycles: 3.1 The 19th Century Industrialization Cycle The first recognized supercycle emerged during the Industrial Revolution. Demand for coal, iron, and other raw materials surged as Western Europe and North America industrialized. Key drivers included mechanization, railway construction, and urbanization. 3.2 Post-World War II Reconstruction Following WWII, Europe and Japan required massive reconstruction. Commodity demand, especially for steel, copper, and oil, rose sharply. This period also saw significant government investment in infrastructure, creating long-term demand pressures. 3.3 The 2000s China-Led Supercycle The most cited modern supercycle was driven by China’s industrial boom. Rapid urbanization, construction, and manufacturing required unprecedented volumes of metals, energy, and agricultural products. During this period: Copper prices increased fivefold between 2003 and 2007. Iron ore prices surged over 400% between 2003 and 2008. Oil prices reached historic highs, peaking above $140 per barrel in 2008. This supercycle illustrates the impact of a single economy’s rapid growth on global commodity markets. 4. Drivers of Commodity Supercycles Several structural and cyclical factors contribute to the formation of supercycles: 4.1 Economic Growth in Emerging Markets Emerging economies, particularly China, India, and Brazil, experience rapid urbanization and industrialization. Their growing demand for raw materials drives prices upward globally. 4.2 Population Growth and Urbanization Increasing population, especially in developing countries, creates long-term demand for energy, food, and construction materials. Urban infrastructure, housing, and transportation projects amplify this effect. 4.3 Technological Advancement and Industrialization While technology can sometimes reduce demand through efficiency gains, large-scale industrialization typically increases the need for steel, copper, and energy-intensive resources. 4.4 Supply Constraints Unlike demand, which can surge quickly, commodity supply often lags due to: Long lead times for mining and energy projects Geopolitical risks in resource-rich regions Environmental regulations limiting extraction This imbalance between rising demand and constrained supply sustains higher prices. 4.5 Inflation and Monetary Policy Periods of loose monetary policy and low real interest rates often coincide with commodity supercycles. Investors seek inflation hedges, and commodities become attractive, creating a self-reinforcing cycle. 5. Key Commodities in Supercycles Certain commodities are more prone to supercycle effects due to their strategic importance: 5.1 Energy Commodities Crude Oil: Critical for transportation and industrial production. Natural Gas: Heating, power generation, and chemical feedstock. Coal: Industrial power, especially in emerging markets. Energy demand rises with urbanization, industrialization, and global transport expansion, often driving supercycle trends. 5.2 Metals Copper: Integral for electrical systems, construction, and electronics. Iron Ore & Steel: Essential for infrastructure and heavy industry. Aluminum & Nickel: Key for manufacturing, transportation, and battery production. Technological advances like electrification and renewable energy further boost demand for certain metals. 5.3 Agricultural Commodities Grains (wheat, corn, rice): Food security concerns, population growth. Soybeans & Edible Oils: Rising protein consumption and industrial applications. Coffee & Sugar: Urban lifestyle changes and consumer demand. Weather patterns, climate change, and land scarcity can intensify supply constraints. 6. Investment Implications of Commodity Supercycles Commodity supercycles create both opportunities and risks for investors: 6.1 Asset Classes Benefiting Commodity Futures and ETFs: Direct exposure to price increases. Mining and Energy Stocks: Profit from rising commodity prices. Infrastructure Investments: Higher raw material demand can boost certain industries. 6.2 Risks Volatility: Despite long-term trends, commodities remain cyclical in the short term. Inflation and Currency Risk: Commodities often trade in USD, affecting returns for other currencies. Geopolitical Events: Resource nationalism, wars, and trade restrictions can impact supply. 6.3 Strategic Positioning Long-term investors often diversify across commodities and related equities to capture supercycle gains while mitigating risk. 7. Measuring and Identifying Supercycles Economists and market analysts use several tools to identify supercycles: 7.1 Real Price Trends Adjusting for inflation, analysts track long-term price trends to distinguish supercycles from temporary spikes. 7.2 Supply-Demand Gaps Persistent supply shortages relative to rising demand indicate potential supercycle formation. 7.3 Macro Indicators Urbanization rates Industrial production growth Energy consumption patterns These indicators signal structural demand trends that can drive supercycles. 7.4 Investment Flows Tracking institutional investment in commodities can reveal market expectations of long-term price growth. 8. The Role of Emerging Technologies Emerging technologies can both create and sustain supercycles: Electric Vehicles (EVs): Surge in copper, lithium, nickel, and cobalt demand. Renewable Energy Infrastructure: Increases need for steel, aluminum, and rare earth metals. Smart Agriculture: Efficient production can ease pressure on food commodities but also raises demand for fertilizers and energy. Technology-driven demand tends to be structural and long-lasting, aligning with supercycle characteristics. 9. Environmental and Geopolitical Considerations 9.1 Climate Change Extreme weather affects crop yields and energy supply. Stricter environmental regulations may restrict mining, oil drilling, and fossil fuel production. 9.2 Geopolitical Risks Resource-rich countries may leverage commodities for political influence. Trade wars and sanctions can disrupt supply chains, further impacting prices. 10. Future Outlook Many analysts believe a new commodity supercycle may be emerging due to: Post-pandemic industrial recovery Rapid energy transition to renewables EV and battery metal demand Geopolitical shifts and supply chain restructuring However, global economic slowdowns, technological breakthroughs, and policy interventions could temper or extend the supercycle’s trajectory. Conclusion Commodity supercycles represent one of the most significant long-term economic phenomena affecting markets, investors, and nations. Driven by structural demand growth, supply constraints, and technological innovation, they influence global trade, inflation, and investment strategies. Recognizing the signals of a supercycle allows governments, corporations, and investors to strategically position themselves to benefit from prolonged commodity trends. While predicting the exact duration and magnitude is challenging, historical patterns provide valuable guidance for navigating future supercycles.
NASDAQ:AMZNEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
Amazon analysisRight now, I believe price is trading inside the distribution area that I’ve highlighted. The recent break of the trendline suggests momentum may be shifting, with the risk of a reversal into a downtrend. From an investor’s perspective, this is not the most attractive area to be buying. A more favorable entry could come if price moves back down into the accumulation area I’ve marked on the chart. 🎯 Conclusion: My view is cautious — I think AMZN may leave the distribution phase and head lower toward the accumulation area. As an investor, patience here may prove wiser than chasing current levels.
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by abo0o
Amazon (AMZN) shares fall around 3% in a single dayAmazon (AMZN) shares fall around 3% in a single day As the chart shows, Amazon (AMZN) shares fell by roughly 3% yesterday after reports that the US Federal Trade Commission has launched a probe into the company over alleged “dark patterns”. According to the allegations, Amazon may have deliberately complicated the process of cancelling Prime subscriptions in order to retain customers. Should the charges be proven, this could result in significant fines and have a major impact on one of Amazon’s key revenue streams. Amazon’s share price dipped below $220 yesterday for the first time since 12 August. Could the decline continue? Technical analysis of Amazon (AMZN) chart In our 5 September analysis, we: → used AMZN stock price swings to plot an ascending channel (shown in blue); → suggested the price could extend its bullish structure after breaking through resistance R (shown in red). Indeed, in the following days there was some bullish momentum: peak B was higher than peak A. However, this appears more a sign of weakness when judged by the nature of the reversal: → on 10 September, the price edged only slightly above the summer peak, → before tumbling sharply, with bearish candles widening. This move, showing clear signs of a Double Top pattern (A–B), may suggest that buyers at September’s high were trapped, with stop-loss closures adding to the downward pressure. The previously plotted ascending channel remains valid, but Amazon stock price has dropped (shown by the red arrow) into its lower half. In this context, the channel’s midline and the $227.70 level could now act as resistance. Bulls, however, still have grounds to expect support from: → the bullish reversal zone formed in early August, when a narrowing triangle appeared on the chart with its axis around $215; → the QL line, which divides the lower half of the channel into quarters. Although the negative sentiment from FTC-related news may eventually fade, what remains concerning is AMZN’s relatively weaker performance in 2025 compared with the broader market: while the S&P 500 set a fresh all-time high this week, Amazon shares have barely moved since the start of the year. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by FXOpen
Top Healthcare Stocks to Watch in Today’s Market🏥 Industry Overview: Healthcare in 2025 The healthcare sector has experienced a period of volatility in 2025, with the S&P 500 healthcare index rising just 4% since early 2023, compared to a 52% surge in the broader market. Factors contributing to this underperformance include policy uncertainties, regulatory challenges, and pricing pressures. Despite these headwinds, the sector remains resilient, driven by demographic trends such as an aging population, technological advancements, and increasing healthcare expenditures. 📈 Top Healthcare Stocks to Watch 1. Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) Johnson & Johnson continues to be a stalwart in the healthcare sector, with a diversified portfolio spanning pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and consumer health products. The company's robust pipeline and consistent dividend payouts make it a reliable choice for long-term investors. 2. Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) Eli Lilly has been at the forefront of innovation, particularly in the diabetes and oncology spaces. The company's recent advancements in weight-loss therapies have garnered significant attention, positioning it as a leader in metabolic health. 3. Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK) Merck's oncology drug, Keytruda, remains a cornerstone of its portfolio, with ongoing clinical trials expanding its therapeutic indications. The company's strategic partnerships and global reach enhance its growth prospects. 4. AbbVie Inc. (NYSE: ABBV) AbbVie's acquisition of Allergan has bolstered its presence in the aesthetics and eye care markets. The company's strong pipeline, particularly in immunology and neuroscience, provides a solid foundation for future growth. 5. Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) Amgen's leadership in biologics and biosimilars positions it well in the evolving pharmaceutical landscape. The company's focus on cardiovascular and oncology therapies aligns with current healthcare priorities. 6. AstraZeneca plc (NYSE: AZN) AstraZeneca's commitment to oncology and respiratory treatments has driven its recent growth. Strategic acquisitions and a strong R&D pipeline support its long-term prospects. 7. Novartis AG (NYSE: NVS) Novartis continues to innovate in gene therapies and ophthalmology. The company's focus on high-value treatments and strategic divestitures streamline its operations, enhancing shareholder value. 8. Sanofi (NYSE: SNY) Sanofi's emphasis on immunology and rare diseases has strengthened its market position. Collaborations and acquisitions in the biotech space expand its therapeutic reach. 9. Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: VRTX) Vertex's leadership in cystic fibrosis treatments has been complemented by its expansion into gene editing technologies. The company's innovative approach positions it as a key player in precision medicine. 10. Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG) Intuitive Surgical remains a pioneer in robotic-assisted surgery. The company's expanding global footprint and continuous technological advancements sustain its competitive edge. 🔍 Emerging Opportunities Obesity Treatment Market The global obesity epidemic has spurred demand for effective treatments. Companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are capitalizing on this trend with their weight-loss therapies. In India, Fortis Healthcare plans to expand its network of obesity clinics, reflecting the growing importance of metabolic health in emerging markets. Biotech Innovations Biotechnology firms are making significant strides in gene therapies and personalized medicine. Companies like Vertex Pharmaceuticals and Scholar Rock are at the forefront of these innovations, offering potential breakthroughs in treating genetic disorders. 📊 Market Trends and Considerations Regulatory Landscape: Policy changes, such as drug pricing reforms and reimbursement adjustments, can impact profitability. Technological Advancements: The integration of AI and robotics in healthcare delivery enhances efficiency and patient outcomes. Global Health Initiatives: International collaborations and funding for global health challenges present growth opportunities. 💡 Investment Strategies Diversification: Investing across various subsectors—pharmaceuticals, medical devices, biotechnology—mitigates sector-specific risks. Long-Term Horizon: Focusing on companies with strong pipelines and robust financials ensures resilience against market fluctuations. Thematic Investing: Targeting trends like aging populations, digital health, and personalized medicine aligns investments with macroeconomic shifts. 🧾 Conclusion The healthcare sector in 2025 offers a plethora of investment opportunities, driven by innovation, demographic trends, and evolving market dynamics. By focusing on companies with strong fundamentals, strategic initiatives, and alignment with global health trends, investors can position themselves for long-term success in this vital industry.
NASDAQ:AMZNEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
Amazon Stock Heist: Thieves Targeting 247 Escape Point🔐💰 AMAZON HEIST PLAN – STOCK MARKET ROBBERY STYLE 🚀📈 👋 Hey Thief OG’s, Money Grabbers & Market Shadows! Today’s mission is inside the vault of Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) – and we’re planning a Bullish Heist. 🎯 ENTRY – Layering the Break-In 💎 The vault doors are always open for the thief gang! Place multiple Buy Limit Orders (layer entries) at 🏦: 230.00 / 227.00 / 225.00 / 222.00 You can add more layers to your heist plan based on your own risk appetite. Thief strategy = stack the entries, wait for the pullback, strike big. 🛑 STOP LOSS – Thief Escape Route 🚔 This is the official Thief SL: @219.00. But remember OG’s – adjust your SL based on your own strategy & bag size. We don’t all run with the same loot. 🎯 TARGET – Police Barricade 🚨 Before the sirens ring, our escape bag is ready at @247.00. That’s where we dump the loot and vanish into the shadows. 🏃💨💼 🕵️‍♂️ THIEF STYLE STRATEGY ✅ Layering entry method (multiple buy limits = thief stacking plan). ✅ Risk management = key to survival. ✅ Exit before the market police catches you. 💥 Remember OG’s: This is not financial advice – this is a robbery simulation in the stock market. Support the gang 👉 Smash the Boost Button 💥 so our heist team gets stronger! 🤑💼💰 Every day, every chart, every loot = Thief Trader Style. Stay sharp. Stay hidden. Stay profitable.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by The-Thief
6
Amazon Wave Analysis – 23 September 2025 - Amazon broke support zone - Likely to fall to support level 217.45 Amazon recently broke the support zone between the support level 225.90 (low of the earlier impulse wave i), support trendline of the daily up channel from April and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse C from the start of August. The breakout of this support zone continues the active impulse wave 3 which belongs to the intermediate downward impulse sequence (C) from September. Amazon can be expected to fall to the next support level 217.45 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3).
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by FxProGlobal
AMAZON Has it found a bottom?Amazon Inc. (AMZN) has been trading within a 4-month Channel Up and is currently pulling back on a Bearish Leg. The 1D MA100 (green trend-line) is just below and last time a similar Channel Up found support on it (May 31 2024), it rebounded for a -0.382 Fibonacci extension top. As you can see, both patterns are identical, even making their first Higher Lows on their respective 0.618 Fib. Even their 1D RSI fractals are similar and right now we are headed of the 2nd Low (green circle). As a result, we expect a bullish reversal there, targeting a little under $250 (Fib -0.382 ext). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by TradingShot
1
AMZN Sep 23 – Bears Drive the Tape, Eyes on 227 SupportPrice Action & Setup (1-Hour Chart)
Amazon slid hard today, breaking a string of higher lows and printing a clear lower-high, lower-low sequence. Price is sitting right at 228 support after a steady fade from the 235 area. This is now the pivot to watch. A clean hourly close below 227.5 opens the door toward 225 and possibly 222. Momentum Read
MACD is firmly negative and widening, which confirms downside pressure. Stoch RSI is buried near oversold territory, hinting that any bounce is likely to be more of a dead-cat reaction unless momentum sharply shifts. GEX (Options Flow) Confluence
Gamma exposure lines up with the bearish chart: * Highest positive GEX / Call resistance: around 232.5 and 237.5 * Big Call Walls: 237.5 and 242.5 — strong upside caps if AMZN tries to rebound * Heavy Put Walls: 228 (major support), 225, 222 (next magnets)
A decisive break under 227.5 could trigger dealer hedging to the downside, intensifying the move to 225 and even 222. Trading Plan * Short setup: Look for a clean hourly break under 227.5 with volume. First target 225, stretch target 222. Tight stop above 230. * Bounce scalp: Only if price reclaims 230 with conviction; target 232.5–235, but treat it as a counter-trend trade. Option Angle
Puts around 225 or 222 strikes can work for short-dated bearish plays if breakdown confirms. Call buyers should stay cautious until a firm reversal above 232.5 materializes. Bottom Line
Trend bias is down. Losing 227.5 sets a clean path toward 225–222. A surprise reclaim of 230 would be the first sign bears are losing grip. Disclaimer: This is for educational discussion only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by BullBearInsights
2
Emerging Market Impact1. Defining Emerging Markets The term “emerging markets” (EMs) was first coined in the 1980s by Antoine van Agtmael of the International Finance Corporation to describe developing countries that offered investment opportunities. Key Features of Emerging Markets: Rapid Economic Growth – Higher GDP growth rates compared to developed economies. Industrialization – Transition from agriculture-driven economies to manufacturing and services. Urbanization – Large-scale migration from rural to urban areas. Expanding Middle Class – Rising income levels and consumer demand. Financial Market Development – Stock exchanges, bond markets, and banking systems are evolving. Volatility & Risk – Political instability, weaker institutions, and external dependence. Examples: China & India: Asia’s powerhouses, shaping global trade and technology. Brazil & Mexico: Latin American giants with commodity and manufacturing influence. South Africa & Nigeria: African leaders in mining, oil, and population growth. Turkey & Poland: Bridging Europe and Asia with strategic significance. 2. Economic Impact of Emerging Markets Emerging markets are no longer just the “junior players” of the global economy—they are becoming growth engines. Contribution to Global GDP In 2000, EMs accounted for about 24% of global GDP. By 2025, they contribute nearly 40–45% of global GDP, with China and India leading. Consumption Power By 2030, EMs are expected to account for two-thirds of global middle-class consumption. Rising disposable incomes mean demand for cars, housing, technology, and branded goods. Labor & Demographics EMs often have younger populations compared to aging developed economies. India, for instance, has a median age of around 28, compared to 38 in the U.S. and 47 in Japan. This “demographic dividend” fuels productivity and innovation. Industrial & Tech Transformation China became the “world’s factory” over the past three decades. India has emerged as a global IT hub. Countries like Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Mexico are rising as new manufacturing centers. 3. Financial Impact Emerging markets play a huge role in global financial markets, attracting foreign investment while also creating risks. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) EMs attract trillions in FDI, driven by cheaper labor, large markets, and natural resources. For example, multinational giants like Apple, Tesla, and Unilever rely heavily on EM production bases. Stock Market Growth Exchanges like Shanghai, Bombay, São Paulo, and Johannesburg have grown rapidly. MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a benchmark followed by global investors. Volatility & Risk EM currencies (like the Indian Rupee, Brazilian Real, Turkish Lira) are prone to fluctuations. Debt crises (Argentina, Turkey) show vulnerabilities. Political instability often creates market shocks. Capital Flows EMs depend heavily on global liquidity. U.S. interest rate hikes often lead to capital outflows from EMs, weakening currencies and causing crises (e.g., 2013 taper tantrum). 4. Trade & Globalization Emerging markets are deeply tied to global trade flows. Supply Chains China dominates electronics, steel, and textiles. Vietnam and Bangladesh are global clothing suppliers. Mexico and Poland are key auto manufacturing hubs. Commodities Brazil and Argentina are agricultural superpowers. Russia, South Africa, and Nigeria export oil, gas, and minerals. This creates a commodity cycle linkage: when EM demand rises, commodity prices soar globally. Trade Balances Many EMs run surpluses due to strong exports (China, Vietnam). Others run deficits due to import dependency (India, Turkey). 5. Social & Development Impact Emerging markets impact society in profound ways. Poverty Reduction: Millions lifted out of poverty in China and India. Urbanization: Creation of megacities like Shanghai, Mumbai, São Paulo. Education & Skills: Expanding universities and digital adoption. Technology Leapfrogging: Africa moving directly from no-banking to mobile payments (M-Pesa). Health Improvements: Longer life expectancy and reduced infant mortality. However, inequality persists—rapid growth often benefits urban elites more than rural poor. 6. Geopolitical & Strategic Impact Emerging markets are not just economic stories—they influence geopolitics. China’s Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) expands infrastructure and political influence. India plays a balancing role between the U.S. and China. BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) aims to counter Western dominance. EMs often act as swing players in global institutions (IMF, WTO, UN). Their rising clout is shifting the balance of power from West to East and South. 7. Environmental & Sustainability Impact Emerging markets are at the heart of the climate challenge. They are major contributors to carbon emissions (China is #1). At the same time, they are most vulnerable to climate change—floods, heatwaves, droughts. Many EMs are investing in renewables (India’s solar parks, Brazil’s ethanol, China’s EVs). ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) investing is influencing EM companies to adopt greener practices. 8. Risks of Emerging Markets While EMs offer opportunities, they also carry risks: Political Instability – Coups, corruption, weak institutions. Currency Volatility – Sharp depreciations can trigger crises. Debt Burden – External borrowing creates vulnerability. Trade Dependency – Heavy reliance on exports makes them vulnerable to global slowdowns. Regulatory Uncertainty – Sudden changes in policies discourage investors. Geopolitical Conflicts – Wars, sanctions, and trade wars hit EM economies hard. 9. Opportunities in Emerging Markets For investors, EMs present high-growth opportunities: Consumer Markets: Rising middle class drives demand for luxury goods, smartphones, healthcare, and education. Infrastructure Development: Roads, ports, power plants—huge investment needs. Digital Economy: E-commerce, fintech, mobile banking booming. Energy Transition: Renewable energy projects are scaling fast. Venture Capital: Startups in India, Africa, and Latin America are attracting global funding. 10. Future Outlook By 2050, many emerging markets could dominate the global economy. China: May remain the largest economy. India: Could surpass the U.S. in GDP by mid-century. Africa: With the fastest population growth, could be the new frontier. Latin America: If political stability improves, it could rise as a major supplier of food and energy. However, the path will not be smooth. EMs must balance growth with sustainability, strengthen institutions, and manage geopolitical tensions. Conclusion The impact of emerging markets is one of the most important forces shaping the 21st century. They are no longer passive participants but active shapers of trade, finance, technology, and geopolitics. Their rise has created new opportunities for businesses and investors but also introduced new risks and uncertainties. In simple terms, the story of emerging markets is the story of the future of the global economy. They bring growth, innovation, and dynamism—but also complexity and volatility. Anyone interested in trade, finance, or policy must pay close attention to these rising economies, because their impact is already being felt everywhere—from Wall Street to Silicon Valley, from African villages to Asian megacities.
NASDAQ:AMZNEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
Derivatives Trading in Emerging Markets1. Understanding Derivatives in Simple Terms A derivative is essentially a financial contract whose value is derived from an underlying asset. That asset could be anything — stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, or even interest rates. Think of it like this: If you and your friend bet on whether the price of gold will go up or down next month, you’ve entered into a type of derivative contract. The bet itself has no standalone value; it derives its worth from the movement of gold prices. The most common types of derivatives include: Futures Contracts – Agreements to buy or sell an asset at a fixed price on a future date. Options Contracts – Rights (but not obligations) to buy or sell an asset at a specific price before a given date. Forwards Contracts – Custom, over-the-counter (OTC) agreements similar to futures, but privately negotiated. Swaps – Agreements to exchange cash flows, such as fixed interest for floating interest. In developed economies, derivatives trading is massive. The notional value of global derivatives markets runs into hundreds of trillions of dollars. But in emerging markets, the journey is still evolving. 2. Why Derivatives Matter in Emerging Markets Emerging markets — like India, Brazil, China, South Africa, Mexico, and Turkey — are characterized by fast economic growth, higher volatility, and developing financial institutions. Here’s why derivatives play such a crucial role in these economies: Risk Management (Hedging) Commodity producers (like farmers in India or oil exporters in Brazil) face price volatility. Derivatives allow them to lock in prices and reduce uncertainty. For example, an Indian farmer can use a futures contract on wheat to protect against falling prices during harvest. Price Discovery Derivatives markets help determine fair prices of commodities and financial assets. Futures on stock indices or currencies often reflect real-time demand-supply expectations. Liquidity & Market Depth They increase participation in markets. A liquid derivatives market often boosts liquidity in the cash (spot) market as well. Investment Opportunities For global investors, derivatives provide exposure to emerging market growth stories without needing to directly own local stocks or bonds. Integration with Global Finance Derivatives connect emerging markets with global capital flows, making them part of the broader financial ecosystem. 3. Historical Development of Derivatives in Emerging Markets The journey of derivatives in emerging economies is relatively recent compared to the U.S. or Europe. Let’s take a quick tour: India India banned derivatives trading in 1952 due to speculation risks. In 2000, it reintroduced derivatives on stock indices and later expanded into single-stock futures, options, and commodity derivatives. Today, India has one of the largest derivatives markets in the world by volume. Brazil BM&F Bovespa (now part of B3 exchange) has been a pioneer in Latin America. It introduced futures contracts on commodities like coffee and later expanded into financial derivatives. China Initially cautious due to speculation risks, China opened derivatives trading in the 1990s. Today, the Shanghai Futures Exchange and China Financial Futures Exchange trade a wide range of contracts. South Africa The Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) has a robust derivatives segment, including agricultural futures. Turkey & Mexico Both countries have developed active currency and interest rate derivative markets, driven by macroeconomic volatility. The common thread? Derivatives in emerging markets often start with commodities (agriculture, metals, or energy) and later expand into financial products. 4. Key Types of Derivatives in Emerging Markets a. Commodity Derivatives Farmers, miners, and exporters rely heavily on futures and options. Example: Brazil’s coffee futures, India’s gold futures, and South Africa’s maize futures. b. Equity Derivatives Stock index futures and options are increasingly popular. India’s Nifty50 futures are among the most traded globally. c. Currency Derivatives Emerging markets often face currency volatility due to capital flows. Currency futures (like USD/INR in India) help businesses hedge exchange rate risks. d. Interest Rate Derivatives Less developed compared to developed nations, but growing fast. For example, Mexico and Turkey have active interest rate swap markets due to inflation risks. 5. Opportunities in Derivatives Trading in Emerging Markets Emerging markets present unique opportunities for traders, investors, and institutions: High Growth Potential As economies grow, demand for derivatives rises. Market Inefficiencies Emerging markets often display mispricing due to less competition, creating arbitrage opportunities. Commodity Exposure Emerging economies are major commodity producers. Derivatives give exposure to commodities like oil, metals, and agriculture. Retail Participation In markets like India, retail investors are driving growth in equity derivatives. Global Diversification International investors can diversify by accessing emerging market derivatives. 6. Risks and Challenges While the opportunities are strong, derivatives in emerging markets come with risks: Volatility Emerging markets often face sharp price swings due to political or economic shocks. Regulatory Uncertainty Policies can change overnight, restricting or liberalizing derivative trading. Liquidity Issues Some contracts lack depth, making it hard to exit positions. Counterparty Risk In over-the-counter markets, the risk of default is higher. Speculation vs. Hedging Regulators often worry about excessive speculation destabilizing markets. Lack of Awareness Many small businesses or retail traders in emerging markets don’t fully understand derivatives, leading to misuse. 7. Regulatory Landscape Regulation plays a defining role in shaping derivative markets. India: The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) oversees derivatives trading. It has gradually opened the market but remains cautious about speculation. Brazil: B3 Exchange operates under the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM). China: The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) keeps a tight grip, limiting speculative contracts. South Africa: The Financial Sector Conduct Authority regulates derivatives under the JSE. A common theme is balancing market development with financial stability. Too much speculation could cause systemic risks; too much control could stifle growth. 8. Case Studies Case 1: India’s Nifty Derivatives Boom Nifty index futures and options dominate global trading volumes. Low margin requirements and high retail participation fueled this growth. Case 2: Brazil’s Coffee Futures Brazil is the world’s largest coffee producer. Coffee futures contracts in São Paulo provide global benchmarks for pricing. Case 3: China’s Cautious Path China introduced stock index futures in 2010 but imposed heavy restrictions after the 2015 market crash. This shows the delicate balance regulators maintain. 9. The Future of Derivatives in Emerging Markets The next decade could see explosive growth in emerging market derivatives: Digital Platforms & Fintech Online trading apps will democratize access. ESG & Green Derivatives New contracts may emerge around carbon credits and renewable energy. Cross-Border Trading Greater integration with global exchanges. Blockchain & Smart Contracts Could reduce counterparty risks and improve transparency. Retail Power Just like in India, retail traders will drive volume growth in many countries. 10. Conclusion Derivatives trading in emerging markets is both a story of promise and caution. On one hand, these instruments help farmers, exporters, and investors hedge against volatility, improve price discovery, and connect to global finance. On the other, misuse and over-speculation can destabilize fragile economies. For investors, derivatives in emerging markets are not just about chasing profits — they are about understanding the heartbeat of fast-growing economies. As regulations mature, technology spreads, and education improves, these markets could very well become the engines of global derivatives growth.
NASDAQ:AMZNEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
Short AMZN finished with pinbar candleThe market is in position for a correction. There is a similar pinbar pattern on the weekly, like the previous drop. Expecting a drop in AMZN to materialize. Look at the daily, there was a gap down on earnings, a warning of what is coming ahead. If long, we would expect after the gap close, to continue higher, especially after Fed announcement about the interest rate. Since it did not materialize to the long side, then the hypothesis of long, is now invalid. Hence, the hypothesis of short, is more likely.
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by ZoharCho
Using Amazon as an example to write about intrinsic valueThe beautiful thing about equities, is that we can determine what the stock should be worth based on the future cash flows the company generates. It is called intrinsic value and professional investors often use this calculation to help them make higher quality decisions. The primary method of calculation is called discount cash flow. When building a DCF model is is recommended to use Wall Streets estimates to keep an unbiased opinion. Understanding the concept of discount cash flow, is like understanding the calculations behind any technical indicator, the thing about intrinsic value is that it is a fundamental indication not just technical. Equities go up, because companies are generating cash flows. Unlike commodities, which are only valued based on the general consensus of voters. It was Benjamin Graham the father of value investing who said, in the short term the market is a voting machine, but in the long term the market is a weighing machine. There is a fantastic book I read called The Intelligent Investor written by Benjamin Graham I highly recommend giving it a read if your serious about making money in the market over the long term. Intrinsic value is the fundamental, true worth of an asset or business, as determined by an objective analysis of its financial performance and future cash flow potential. It is a crucial concept for investors, especially value investors, who use it to identify assets that are undervalued or overvalued by the market. Focusing on fundamentals helps investors avoid overpaying for assets and reduces the risk of permanent capital loss. If a stock's market price is significantly lower than its calculated intrinsic value, it may be undervalued and a good buying opportunity. The difference is often called a "margin of safety". Intrinsic value is based on an asset's long-term potential, encouraging a focus on sustainable growth and stability rather than short-term market noise. Now onto Amazon stock, according to my model the intrinsic value of Amazon is as of this writing $260 meaning that fundamentally it is still undervalued. Take this with a grain of salt because if you create a model using the discount cash flows of the company over the next 5 or 10 years you might get wildly different results. This is why it is essential to understand the calculation for yourself instead of just taking my word for it. This is a highly speculative calculation, it can also become relatively complicated. Lets compare two individuals performance over the course of their career, I would like to write about Dr. Al Brooks, often referred to as the king of price action by CME group, and Warren Buffett, one of the most successful investors and richest men in the world. Al Brooks, the day traders net worth is about $750 million dollars over the course of his career in the market. Warren Buffett has a net worth of about $150 billion dollars. One is a trader, the other an investor. So where am I going with this? Everyone wants to get rich quick, everyone starts thinking they will be a trader. 90% of traders permanently lose their capital never to make it back and often times quitting participating in the market. The 10% of traders who are actually profitable, aren't making as much money as you would think, as per the comparison above. The average investor over the course of their lifetime will make 150x more money than the best traders. For me, I fell into the 90% category, trading didn't work for me, after reading The Intelligent Investor, the money starting coming into my account almost effortlessly. Dear reader, this article was written by me for my own entertainment. Please do not take anything I have written too literally, always do what works best for you and always remember, whatever your doing, you should be having fun. Cheers
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by Capitalist_Zach