Tesla: Upward Momentum PersistsTesla’s upward momentum has persisted, with the beige wave x still having some room to run. However, we expect the corrective top to form well below resistance at $532.92, which should then trigger the final selling phase within the broader correction. Ultimately, wave y is projected to approach our blue Target Zone between $157.88 and $46.70, completing the large blue wave (II) in that range. Afterward, we anticipate a new wave (III) uptrend. That said, there remains a 40% probability that price may not reach the blue zone, as wave alt.(II) could have already completed at $215.01. In this scenario, TSLA would already be developing a magenta upward impulse and could break above the $532.92 level directly and sustainably.
TSLACO trade ideas
TESLA 500 BY EOY OR 2026 Why Tesla (TSLA) Could Hit $450 Then $500 by EOY 2025 or 2026: Key Catalysts Tesla's hovering around $315 today (as of Sept 23, 2025), down ~20% YTD amid sales dips, but the setup for a rebound to $450 (43% upside) and $500 (59% upside) is primed by execution on autonomy, EVs, and energy. Here's the bull case, blending fundamentals and forecasts:Robotaxi & FSD Rollout Momentum: Tesla's Cybercab unveil in Oct 2025 could catalyze a surge, with unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) v13 hitting highways by year-end. ARK Invest's base case eyes $4,600 by 2026 (driven 60%+ by autonomy), but even conservative models like CoinCodex forecast $453 avg in 2026, with highs to $664 on ride-hailing revenue potentially adding $10T market value.
2 sources
Piper Sandler just hiked their PT, calling TSLA the "top idea" for AV investing.
EV Delivery Rebound & Affordable Models: Post-2025 sales weakness (1.8M deliveries est.), expect 2.3M+ in 2026 with Model 2 launch (~$25K EV) ramping production to 3M+ annually. This counters China/EU headwinds, recaptures 20%+ US market share, and boosts EPS to $0.49 next quarter—fueling a $450 breakout per LongForecast's Q3 2026 path.
2 sources
Morningstar sees a 2026 revival echoing 2016's Model 3 surge.
Energy Storage Boom: Megapack deployments exploding (Q2 2025: 9.4 GWh), with 50%+ YoY growth projected through 2026, diversifying revenue to 15%+ of total. This hedges EV volatility, pushing margins to 20%+ and supporting $500 on 11% revenue growth to $130B.
Optimus Humanoid Robot Sales: External sales kick off late 2025/early 2026, targeting $20K/unit with factory pilots scaling to millions. This could add $1T+ valuation long-term, per ARK, but even modest adoption lifts sentiment to $500 by EOY 2026.
2 sources
Tesla: Robotaxi Hype and Breakout WatchNASDAQ:TSLA surged nearly +10% today, driven by growing anticipation around the upcoming robotaxi unveiling on August 8.
Investors are positioning early, speculating this innovation could open new revenue streams for Tesla and redefine mobility.
📊 Technical Setup:
• Price broke out of local resistance near $330
• Approaching major resistance at $370–371 (Bollinger Band + prior support)
• If $370 is broken and held, the stock could enter a new trading range: $370–$440
• RSI and Stochastic are heating up, but no signs of reversal yet
⚙️ Robotaxi Catalyst:
• Elon Musk confirmed the Robotaxi event set for August 8
• Analysts speculate this could boost valuation through AI and self-driving revenue potential
• Option volume and retail interest are rising fast
📌 Levels to watch:
• Breakout level: $370
• Target: $440
• Support zone: $330
• Invalidation: Close below $310
👀 Watch for pre-event momentum. A break above $370 could trigger a squeeze.
TSLA Sep 23 – Bulls Testing 440, Gamma Fuel Could Stretch This MPrice Action & Setup (1-Hour Chart)
TSLA pushed from the mid-420s and tagged 440 intraday before easing into a tight sideways drift around 436. Price is riding the lower rail of an ascending channel that started last week. Key intraday support is stacked near 433 and 426; a deeper flush could revisit 417.5. Holding above 433 keeps the short-term trend intact and gives bulls a clean springboard for the next leg.
Momentum Read
MACD on the 1-hour is still positive though histogram bars are tapering—classic sign of a healthy pause rather than a breakdown. Stoch RSI hovers near 80, so a quick reset or sideways chop would help build energy for another push.
GEX (Options Flow) Confluence
Options positioning leans bullish and matches the chart:
* Highest positive GEX / Call resistance: ~436
* 2nd Call Wall: ~450 (near 70% call concentration)
* 3rd Call Wall: ~457.5–460
* Main Put Defenses: 417.5, 410, 405 and a big floor at 400
If TSLA can stay north of 436, market makers may keep hedging upward, creating a gamma squeeze potential into 450 and beyond. A clean break below 433 would start unwinding that gamma and bring 417.5 into play.
Trading Plan
* Upside scalp: Buy strength on a 440 break with a first target at 450 and a trailing stop under 433.
* Retest entry: If we dip to 433–426 and bounce with volume, that’s a low-risk reload spot aiming again for 440+.
* Bear hedge: Below 426 with heavy sell volume, short toward 417.5 makes sense.
Option Angle
For bullish plays, short-dated calls around the 440–450 strikes look attractive if 436 holds and IV stays reasonable. For hedging or quick shorts, puts near 417.5 or 410 work if a breakdown confirms.
Bottom Line
Trend bias stays up as long as TSLA holds 433–426. A strong hourly close over 440 could pull in more gamma fuel toward 450–457. Fail that zone and expect a deeper check toward 417.
Disclaimer: This is for educational discussion only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk.
TESLA 989 IN NOVEMBER
🧩 Method in short
• Impulse + Midpoint → anchor the base geometry.
• Mirror slope → project equal angles forward.
• Octaves → copy slopes upward; price vibrates between them.
• Confluence → all red rails meet at the Rome date.
🔑 Sniper Rules
• ✅ Valid as long as TSLA stays above the white base slope.
• ✅ Bounces on the midpoint diagonal confirm strength.
• ❌ A close below the base slope cancels the 989 projection.
🎯 Targets
• Midpoint retest → acceleration.
• Upper octave → resistance.
• Final convergence → 989 by Nov 20, 2025.
⸻
All roads lead to Rome. For Tesla, that Rome is $989.
This is a geometry-based projection, not financial advice. Use your own confirmations and risk management.
Tesla: Bullish Momentum Points to $500 Breakout Current Price: $426.07
Direction: LONG
Targets:
- T1 = $450.00
- T2 = $500.00
Stop Levels:
- S1 = $410.00
- S2 = $395.00
**Wisdom of Professional Traders:**
This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify Tesla's high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that the aggregated views from professional traders often produce high-quality forecasts. Tesla’s position as one of the most active and closely monitored equities by institutional investors amplifies the importance of consensus-driven strategies in this stock.
**Key Insights:**
Tesla has benefited from its strong electric vehicle (EV) market leadership, underpinning its growth trajectory as the EV industry expands globally. Traders highlight Tesla's ability to maintain robust operational margins despite headwinds such as rising commodity and transportation costs. Tesla’s ambitious Full Self-Driving (FSD) vision and upcoming AI developments have sparked significant enthusiasm among tech-focused investors, bolstering its long-term growth outlook.
From a technical perspective, Tesla is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling upward strength. Recent trading volumes show consistent institutional accumulation, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below overbought levels, confirming room for continued upside. Professional traders expect Tesla to test the $450 level in the coming sessions, with the $500 mark identified as the next major extension point.
**Recent Performance:**
Tesla has demonstrated impressive resilience in 2025, rallying over 30% year-to-date while outperforming many of its peers in both the automotive and technology sectors. This upward momentum has been fueled by strong quarterly revenue growth and better-than-expected production numbers, despite macroeconomic concerns like inflationary pressures and volatile supply chains. Tesla’s recent price movement shows a robust support zone around $400, with increasing buying pressure pushing the price toward new highs.
**Expert Analysis:**
Market experts are largely optimistic about Tesla's future prospects, emphasizing the rapidly unfolding EV growth story and Tesla’s early entry advantages. As governments worldwide implement tighter emissions regulations and incentivize clean-energy adoption, Tesla stands out with its scalable production capacity and differentiated market position. Analysts also highlight catalysts such as the Cybertruck launch scheduled for late 2025 and margin expansion driven by cost-saving measures at key Gigafactories.
Technically, experts highlight Tesla’s bullish setup, formed by a series of higher lows and higher highs. Fibonacci retracement analysis places the next major resistance at $450, with $500 highlighted as the psychological and technical breakout point for long-term investors. Tesla’s MACD indicator remains strong, supporting an extended bullish trend.
**News Impact:**
Recent news regarding Tesla's continued success in expanding its market share in Europe and Asia has positively influenced sentiment. Additionally, CEO Elon Musk's statement outlining new advancements in robotics and AI platforms has sparked excitement about non-automotive revenue streams. Tesla's upcoming Investor Day, scheduled for Q4 2025, is likely to introduce updates on strategic innovations, driving higher investor confidence.
**Trading Recommendation:**
Based on Tesla’s technical setup, strong fundamentals, and favorable news flow, a long position is recommended. Traders should consider targeting the $450 level as the first resistance, while $500 serves as the medium-term price objective. Stops should be placed at $410 and $395, reflecting prudent risk management. Tesla’s continued momentum in 2025 makes this trade a compelling opportunity for growth-focused investors.
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TSLA Sep 22 Game Plan – “Charging Toward 433 or Stalling at 425?1️⃣ Big Picture on the 1-Hour Chart
* Price action: TSLA finished around 425.60, riding a rising channel that’s been building since last week. Price tested the mid-channel line and is now sitting slightly above the lower trend support.
* Key levels:
* Resistance: 430–433.25 (recent top & call wall)
* Support: 416.8 → 412.5 (channel support & high-volume level)
* Indicators:
* MACD is flattening but still positive, suggesting momentum is cooling but not gone.
* Stoch RSI near mid-range (~62) leaves room for a push higher or a deeper dip if sellers show up.
The structure leans mildly bullish as long as price respects the lower trendline, but TSLA needs to clear 430+ with conviction for the next leg up.
2️⃣ GEX / Options Flow
* Big call concentration sits near 433–435, then again up at 450 and 465.
* Strong put support shows around 402–400, with a key HVL near 412.5 that often acts like a magnet if selling accelerates.
* Options positioning shows about 83% calls vs puts, with an IVR of 20.3—liquidity is good and premiums are moderate.
This options picture supports the idea that market makers could keep TSLA boxed between 420 and 433 early in the week. A decisive break over 433 could invite a gamma-driven squeeze toward 440–450.
3️⃣ Trading Thoughts & Suggestions
* Scalp / day trade: A clean break above 430–433 with volume can target 440 quickly. Keep a tight stop under 426.
* Support bounce: If the open dips toward 416–412.5 and holds, look for a bounce back to 425+.
* Fade setup: A hard rejection at 433 with heavy sell volume opens room back toward 416 → 412.5.
4️⃣ Bottom Line
TSLA is coiling inside a rising channel. Bulls want a decisive move over 433 to unlock higher levels, while bears need a break below 416 to gain control. The first hour Monday should set the tone for direction.
Disclaimer: This is just market opinion for educational discussion. It’s not financial advice. Always manage your own risk before trading.
TeslaIf you recall, last week I mentioned that I think Tesla gives us another high before it is all said and done. That would complete what I am calling an ED to finally finish off intermediate wave (B). Currently, price is trading @ $434.32 in the overnights according to Robinhood. This creates the new high I was looking for, and if correct, would conclude this move higher. Also, if this is an ED, then once it finally completes, it will move swiftly towards the $400-$405 area as that is where it started. That move lower would be considered the start of wave (C) and would either be wave a, or the start of wave 1.
In short, I believe the high we got in the overnights should be the last leg of this move higher. Rather it finishes tomorrow or sometime in the upcoming week, I do believe this move higher is finally coming to an end. If this is correct, it would be a good area to short the stock...with stops of course.
The ALT that I am watching for is that this high we're getting now in the overnights is just the last leg of micro-wave 3 with 4 & 5 yet to come. The strength in which it moves lower after completion will answer that question for us. A swift move to the above-mentioned price level = completion. A choppy lackadaisical move lower would likely mean the turquoise count is coming to fruition.
Is it time for TSLA to come down?First thing first, I do not own nor trade this stock. So do take it with a pinch of salt.
From the weekly chart, it seems to display a triple top formation which is bearish in nature. However, market is irrational and though it is highly overvalued, it could still continue to rally if the demand from buyers is there.
SL above 480 and aim for profit target at 299
TSLA: High R/R Bounce Play Off the Cloud EdgeTesla NASDAQ:TSLA is sitting at a decision point — testing the edge of the Ichimoku cloud while momentum resets. The setup isn’t confirmed, but the risk/reward is compelling for those watching structure.
🔍 Technical Breakdown
Cloud Support: Price is holding right at the top of the cloud. A breakdown would signal trend weakness, but for now, it's a potential bounce zone.
MACD: Momentum has cooled off, but no bullish crossover yet. Early signs of a flattening histogram could suggest a pivot.
Structure: Horizontal support near $292–295 has held multiple times. If this zone holds again, the upside target opens up quickly.
🎯 Trade Specs
Entry: $296.88
Target: $385.50 (+29.93%)
Stop: $274.21 (–7.66%)
Risk/Reward: 3.91 — solid asymmetry
💡 Trading Insight:
This isn’t about calling bottoms — it’s about defining risk. When price compresses at known support, and you’ve got a 3.9 R/R profile, you don’t need to be right often to be profitable.
Bullish and Bearish Macro wave patternsThis chart provides a bullish and bearish wave pattern for Tesla. Even though the recent move was very impulsive, both bullish and bearish scenarios are equally possible. This is because the impulsive move seems to be wave C of either X wave or ending diagonal (E of ABCDE).
White represents Bullish scenario and Yellow represents bearish scenario.
Minimum Target reached for the C wave.
Note
**Disclaimer** : All details shared here is for educational purpose only. Please do your own research and consider appropriate risk management before making short term or long-term investment decisions.
Approach Market always with probabilities and make sure risk management in place.
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TSLA: Mild Pullback but Uptrend Remains IntactHello everyone,
Tesla’s share price (TSLA) slipped slightly today, closing at 416.66 USD, down 5.78 USD or 1.37% compared to the previous session’s high. After a strong rally earlier, the market is now watching closely to see whether Tesla can sustain its upward momentum or enter a deeper correction.
The main driver of this dip has been profit-taking after the stock approached the 430 USD level, creating selling pressure. Alongside this, Tesla’s prior upward moves have left several Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), which may serve as support zones if price revisits them, helping traders identify potential entry levels. In addition, trading volume has picked up significantly in recent sessions, showing strong inflows and active participation from major investors.
Looking ahead, despite the current mild pullback, Tesla shares are expected to extend their uptrend if they can hold above the 416 USD support. This is a crucial threshold—if it holds, price could revisit 430 USD and potentially move toward 440 USD in upcoming sessions.
The reasoning lies in the sustained capital inflows, the supportive role of FVG zones, and the Ichimoku cloud structure, which continues to back the bullish trend as long as price stays above it.
So, what’s your view? Will Tesla keep pushing higher toward 430–440 USD, or is a deeper retracement likely?
Tesla on Track – Golden Zone Respect Leading to $867 TargetAs we discussed in the earlier setup, Tesla retraced beautifully into the golden zone (62–79% retracement area) after sweeping sell-side liquidity. This zone aligned with a higher-timeframe order block, providing strong confluence for a bullish reaction.
The price has since respected that golden zone, confirming buyers stepped in aggressively and validating the bullish bias. From here, the market structure points toward continuation to the upside, with immediate targets at prior buy-side liquidity pools, eventually extending toward the $867 region, a level that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection and liquidity resting above previous highs.
This setup illustrates a textbook ICT/SMC play:
Liquidity Sweep ✅
Golden Zone Respect ✅
Strong Bullish Reaction ✅
Clear Buy-side Targets Ahead ✅
If momentum holds, Tesla remains positioned for a multi-month expansion leg toward the $867 target zone.
⚠️ DYOR: Not financial advice. Always confirm setups with your own framework and risk management.
Ok TSLA.... holding or pullback?TSLA rocked & today it printed a dark cloud candle. Pullback perhaps?
Tesla typically can rally when things look bleak for the rest of the market. However, after that billion dollar move up, maybe we have a pull back before earnings. Or will we range?
<420/420 maybe retest the gap?
That's what I'm looking for.
TSLA Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP) LONG When TSLA breaks above 350 and closes, the price will launch to $390 very quickly.
A VCP is a technical pattern, showing lessening declines in a range bound formation. A bull flag showing higher-lows is the best, as seen with TSLA.
Volatility is going to breakout sharply to the upside. If you TSLA above 350 just buy and hold, you’re too late trying to get a better deal.
🚀🚀🚀🌖
TSLA path to 550/650 USD Breakout Still Pending🔥 What specifically drives TSLA into 550–650
📦 Deliveries + mix surprise
If unit volumes beat whisper numbers and mix favors higher-trim/FSD attach, you get more gross profit per vehicle without needing price hikes. Watch the cadence of regional incentives and shipping vectors; strong NA/EU mix plus improving China utilization is the sweet spot.
🛠️ Margin stabilization → operating leverage
Gross margin base effect + opex discipline = powerful flow-through. Even a 100–150 bps lift in auto GM, coupled with energy GM expanding as Megapack scales, can push operating margin into low-mid teens. That alone recodes the multiple market is willing to pay.
🔋 Energy storage stepping out of auto’s shadow
Megapack/Powerwall growth with multi-GW backlogs turns “side business” into a credible second engine. As deployments and ASP/contract mix normalize, investors begin modeling $10–$15B annualized energy revenue with attractive GM — this is multiple-expanding because it looks more like infrastructure/software-tinted industrials than cyclical autos.
🤖 Autonomy & software monetization bridges
Two things move the needle fast: (1) clear progress toward supervised autonomy at scale (drives FSD attach + ARPU), and (2) licensing (FSD stack, charging/NACS, drive units). Even modestly credible paid-miles/seat-based models (think $50–$150/month vehicles on fleet) transform valuation frameworks.
🦾 Optimus/robotics as a real option, not sci-fi
The market doesn’t need commercial ubiquity — it needs line-of-sight to pilot deployments and unit economics where labor-substitute ROI < 3 years. A few high-credibility pilots (warehousing, simple assembly, logistics cells) can tack on optionality premium that pushes the multiple toward the top of the range.
💹 Options-market reflexivity
Flows matter. Elevated call demand near ATH turns dealers short gamma, forcing delta hedging that lifts spot, which triggers more call buying → a familiar feedback loop. On breakouts, watch open interest skew to short-dated OTM calls, and put-call ratios compressing; these magnify upside in a tight float day.
🌍 Macro & liquidity
If indices hold highs and the rate path doesn’t tighten financial conditions, growth duration gets rewarded. TSLA’s beta + story premium thrives in that regime.
________________________________________
🧠 Outside-the-box accelerants
🛰️ “Software day” packaging
A coordinated showcase that bundles FSD progress, energy software (fleet, VPP), service/insurance data, and Optimus pilots into a single capital-markets narrative could reframe TSLA as a platform. The Street responds to packaging; it compresses time-to-belief.
🤝 Third-party FSD/charging licensing headlines
A single blue-chip OEM announcing software licensing + NACS deep integration reframes the competitive landscape. The equity market pays a software multiple for recurring seats.
🏗️ Capex signaling for next-gen platform without GM hit
Announcing a modular, high-throughput manufacturing scheme (cell to structure, gigacasting tweaks, logistics compression) with proof that unit economics are accretive from ramp can flip skeptics who anchor to past ramp pain.
⚡ Grid-scale contracts + financing innovation
If Tesla pairs utility-scale storage with project-level financing (think repeatable ABS-like channels for Megapack), you de-risk cash conversion cycles and unlock a new investor constituency (infrastructure/green income). That tightens the multiple.
________________________________________
🏎️ Comparative playbook: RACE (Ferrari) & NVDA (NVIDIA)
👑 RACE — the scarcity & brand ROIC lens
Ferrari’s premium multiple rests on scarcity, orderbook visibility, and brand pricing power. TSLA doesn’t have scarcity, but it can borrow the RACE lens via (a) limited-run, ultra-high-margin trims that anchor halo pricing, (b) waitlist-like energy backlogs that create visibility, and (c) bespoke software packages that mimic “personalization” margin. In bull phases, RACE trades as a luxury compounder rather than an automaker; TSLA can earn a slice of that premium when the energy + software story dominates.
🧮 NVDA — the flywheel & supply-constrained S-curve
NVIDIA’s explosive run blended (1) clear demand > supply, (2) pricing power, (3) ecosystem lock-in. TSLA’s battery and compute stacks can echo that dynamic: limited 4680/cell supply + Megapack queues + proprietary autonomy data moat. The moment the market believes TSLA is supply-gated (not demand-gated) in energy/AI, it will award NVDA-like scarcity premia. Add toolchain stickiness (training data, fleet miles, Dojo/AI infra), and you get ecosystem multiples rather than auto multiples.
📊 What the comps teach for TSLA’s 550–650 zone
• RACE lesson: visibility + pricing power boost the quality of earnings → higher P/E durability.
• NVDA lesson: credible scarcity + platform control turbocharge EV/Sales and compress the market’s time-to-future state.
• Translation for TSLA: blend of luxury-like quality (energy contracts + premium trims) and platform scarcity (cells/AI stack) → multiple rerate into our target band.
________________________________________
🧾 Valuation outlook
🧮 Earnings path
• Units up mid-teens % Y/Y; ASP stable to slightly higher on mix; energy + software up strongly.
• Auto GM +100–150 bps; Energy GM expands on scale; opex +SMC disciplined → op margin 12–15%.
• Share count glide modest. Forward EPS ≈ $9–$11.
• Multiple: 50× (conservative growth premium) → $450–$550; 60× (software/autonomy visibility) → $540–$660.
• Why the market pays up: visible recurring high-margin lines (FSD, energy software, services) + AI/robotics optionality.
📈 EV/Sales path
• Forward revenue $130–$150B (auto + energy + software/services).
• Assign blended EV/Sales 6.5–7.5× when energy/software dominate the debate.
• Less net cash → equity value per share in $550–$650.
• Check: At 7× on $140B = $980B EV; equity ≈ $1.0–$1.1T with cash, divided by diluted shares → mid-$500s to $600s. Momentum premium and flow can extend to upper bound.
________________________________________
🧭 Technical roadmap & market-microstructure
🧱 Breakout mechanics
A decisive weekly close above prior ATH with rising volume and a low-volume retest that holds converts resistance to a springboard. Expect a “open-drive → pause → trend” sequence: day 1 impulse, 2–5 sessions of rangebuilding, then trend resumption.
🧲 Volume shelves & AWVAPs
Anchored VWAPs from the last major swing high and the post-washout low often act like magnets. Post-break, the ATH AVWAP becomes first support, then the $500 handle functions as the psychological pivot. Above there, $550/$590/$630 are classical measured-move/Fib projection waypoints; pullbacks should hold prior shelf highs.
🌀 Options & dealer positioning
On a break, short-dated OTM calls populate 1–2% ladders; dealers short gamma chase price up via delta hedging. Expect intraday ramps near strikes (pin-and-pop behavior) and Friday accelerants if sentiment is euphoric. A steepening skew with heavy call open interest is your tell that supply is thin.
________________________________________
🧨 Risks & invalidation
🚫 Failed retest below the breakout shelf (think: a fast round-trip under the $4-handle) downgrades the setup from “trend” to “blow-off.”
🧯 Margin or delivery disappointments (e.g., price-war resumption, regional softness) break the EPS/EV-Sales bridges.
🌪️ Macro shock (rates spike, liquidity drains) compresses long-duration multiples first; TSLA is high beta.
🔁 Flow reversal — if call-heavy positioning unwinds, gamma flips to a headwind and accelerates downside.
________________________________________
💼 Trading & portfolio expressions for HNWI
🎯 Core + satellite
Hold a core equity position to capture trend, add a satellite of calls for convexity. If chasing, consider call spreads (e.g., 1–3 month $500/$600 or $520/$650) to tame IV.
🛡️ Risk-managed parity
Pair equity with a protective put slightly OTM or finance it with a put spread. Alternatively, collars (write covered calls above $650 to fund downside puts) if you’re guarding a large legacy stake.
⚙️ Momentum follow-through
Use stop-ins above key levels for systematic adds, and stop-outs below retest lows to avoid round-trips. Size reduces into $590–$630 where target confluence lives; recycle risk into pullbacks.
💵 Liquidity & slippage
Scale entries around liquid times (open/closing auctions). For size, work algos to avoid prints into obvious strikes where dealers can lean.
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🧾 Monitoring checklist
🔭 Delivery run-rate signals (regional registration proxies, shipping cadence).
🏭 Margin tells (bill of materials trends, promotions cadence, energy deployment updates).
🧠 Autonomy milestones (software releases, safety metrics, attach/ARPU hints).
🔌 Licensing/partnership beats (NACS depth, FSD/AI stack interest).
📊 Options dashboard (short-dated call OI ladders; put-call ratio shifts; gamma positioning).
🌡️ Macro regime (rates, liquidity, risk appetite).
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✅ Bottom line
🏁 The 550–650 tape is not a fairy tale — it’s a stacked-catalyst + rerate setup where energy/software/autonomy rise in the narrative mix, margins stabilize, and options-market reflexivity does the rest. Execute the breakout playbook, respect invalidation lines, and use convex expressions to lean into upside while protecting capital.
esla (TSLA) — Breakout Playbook
🎯 Core Thesis
• Insider conviction: Musk’s ~$1B buy.
• Risk-on macro: equities at highs, liquidity supportive.
• Options reflexivity: call-heavy flows can fuel upside.
• ATH breakout (~$480–$490) = gateway to price discovery.
________________________________________
🚀 Upside Drivers to $550–$650
• Deliveries & Mix: Surprise beat + higher trim/FSD attach.
• Margins: GM stabilization + energy scaling → op margin 12–15%.
• Energy: $10–15B rev potential with infra-like multiples.
• Autonomy/Software: FSD attach, ARPU, licensing.
• Optimus/Robotics: Pilot deployments → ROI < 3 yrs adds optionality.
• Licensing Headlines: OEMs adopting NACS/FSD stack.
• Capital Markets Narrative: Packaged “software + energy + robotics” story reframes Tesla as a platform.
________________________________________
🏎️ Comparative Bull Run Lens
• Ferrari (RACE): Scarcity, orderbook, luxury multiples.
• NVIDIA (NVDA): Scarcity + ecosystem flywheel → EV/Sales premium.
• Tesla Parallel: Blend of luxury quality (energy backlogs, halo trims) + AI scarcity (cells, fleet data, Dojo).
________________________________________
📊 Valuation Bridges
• EPS Path: $9–$11 EPS × 50–60× = $450–$660.
• EV/Sales Path: $130–150B revenue × 6.5–7.5× = $550–$650.
________________________________________
📈 Technical Roadmap
• Breakout > $490 → retest holds → next legs:
o $550 / $590 / $630 / stretch $650–$690.
• Watch anchored VWAPs; ATH shelf flips to support.
• Options chase accelerates above round strikes.
TSLA Breakout Watch for Sept 18 – Bulls Testing Key Supply LevelHere’s my fresh read on Tesla heading into Wednesday’s session
1️⃣ Market Structure & Price Action
* Clean breakout attempt: TSLA pierced the descending trendline drawn from last week’s highs and closed around $429, holding above the 9 EMA and reclaiming short-term momentum.
* Support shelf: $421–422 zone (prior supply) flipped to support. This is the first line of defense on any early dip.
* Upside pivot: Price is grinding along an ascending intraday trendline that points toward the $435–440 area if momentum keeps up.
2️⃣ GEX (Options Flow) Insight
* Call dominance: Call flow is heavy with ~90% call premium, IVR ~19.6 (low), and IVx ~65.3 (normalizing).
* Big call walls: $432.5 and $436 show strong gamma with 67%+ call concentration, which can attract price if bulls stay in charge.
* Put defense: Major put support sits at $412–417.5. A break below $412 would flip sentiment and invite a fast move to $400.
3️⃣ Trade Thoughts
* Bullish swing / scalp: Buy pullbacks into $423–426 with a stop under $421. Targets $435, stretch $440+.
* Bearish fade: Only if TSLA loses $421 and the hourly closes below it. First target $409, extended $400.
4️⃣ Option Angle
* With call interest stacked and IV still moderate, short-dated call spreads or debit spreads around $430/$440 look attractive for a measured upside shot.
* Aggressive traders could sell puts below $410 for premium, but that’s only if you’re comfortable owning shares on a breakdown.
5️⃣ Personal Take
I like the constructive action. Tesla cleared a multi-day squeeze and is running with the broader tech bid. As long as $421 holds, the path of least resistance is up. I’m watching volume on any morning retest—if buyers show up, I’ll lean long.
Disclaimer: This commentary is for educational discussion only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk before trading.