CVS trade ideas
CVS set up for a couple of nice opportunities!So CVS looks to be in a pretty nice channel and trading pretty nicely inside it. I think two things could happen. 1, it could breakout of the channel in which I would buy in after the retest or 2, it could trade back down to support which I would buy at a really nice discount. Two entries on the chart, lets see what happens. It could also keep trading in this channel which wouldnt be all that bad because some serious pressure would be building up for a pretty nice pop bearish or bullish. Lets keep an eye on this one!
CVS Continues to Head Lower, Walgreens Remains in a Wedge $CVS $CVS ($CVS) Daily: $CVS appears to be on its wave 4 corrective move before starting and completing the final Elliot Wave, shown in this daily chart. Wave 3 retraced back to 0.618 fib level as it was expected, and appears to coil between $75-85 range for the time being. A break below the $75 level would indicate a move to its target of ~$60 price target.
Walgreens ($WBA) doing much better than its competitor, remains in a wedge for the past year and half, perhaps awaiting the outcome of the Rite Aid merger, at this point which remains very shaky. MACD appears to be rolling over a bit here, while RSI both on the weekly and daily proves to be inconclusive. A break below the wedge channel support would almost certainly show a test of the $75 support level, while a break above would probably retest the $97 highs. No reason to get greedy and flip a coin here and guess; being patient here and chasing momentum would prove to be the better course, as technicals do not provide a direction either way at this point in time.
CVS Bearish signalsCVS showing a gartley pattern. While I don't usually go in for harmonics on stocks, there's a lot of confirming signals here. Plus it just broke major support. Short this baby!
Look for anywhere between a $65 and $75 target depending on your timeframe and general trading strategy.
Buy CVS Apr17 85 Puts @ $4 ~ Swing short in DowntrendCVS is in a healthy downtrend and broke through the 200sma with strength. The RSI peaked with the prices retraced. Prices are now retracing with 34EMA and 200sma resistance. In addition, the 2nd leg of the retracement will be found @ 85.7. Multiple areas of resistance confluence.
Target a move to $80.50 for first profit stop and move to breakeven.
Rebounding off bottom: Buy.GOOD FUNDAMENTALS
Rated buy by analysts with 20% upside
Less volatile than the market (Beta 0.89)
Sensible valuation (P/E 15.72x, P/BV 2.18x)
Healthy growth (5 yr avg revenue +10%, ROE +14%)
TECHNICALLY IMPROVING
Has been on a downtrend since the historical top of July 2015
Long and medium term technical pictures still negative
Has retraced 53% of major move started in Dec 2011
Stock now appearing oversold (RSI<30)
Has found a temporary floor at $69.30 post disappointing earnings
This also corresponds to the 61.8% Fib retracement ($68.87)
FLOWS IMPROVING
After earnings sell-off on Nov 8 the stock traded up significantly on 5.5x average volume
PLAIN VANILLA LONG STRATEGY
Buy at the market
Stop loss $69.30
Time horizon year-end
Target 1 $81.25
R/R 1.73x
Target 2 $86.00
R/R 2.82x
CVS showing relative weakness, major support is broken Fundamentals:
Amazon’s growth has come at the expense of Wal-Mart, Target. Walgreens and CVS. Amazon’s key competitive advantage is its multiplatform approach with Amazon Prime, which includes same-day delivery for many goods, all of which should lead to rising number of consumers skipping the trip to the local supercenter, drug store or grocery market. For this reason, some old retailers may loose audience.
Technicals:
The price came off of the highs at $106.67, failed to hold support area around $102-103. And finally, broke major support on big volume that held since mid of March. ANd that happened during the rise of S&P - relative weakness.
Trade and Risk Management:
As the price went through my technical zone of entry on Friday, I will initiate short position at open price on Monday, with STOP above 21 EMA and measured target to $94.