THIRD REBOUND OFF SUPPORT: HOW SUSTAINABLE?
VIX is better analyzed on the D chart, as opposed to longer time frames.
On this time frame, the volatility barometer has completed a triple-bottom.
It now looks ready to rebound off its support at 13.50, a long-awaited event.
Meanwhile, SPX is indicated below its 2,820 resistance, for the 6th consecutive...
MARKET DIRECTION UP, CAUTION STILL REQUIRED
The index crossed and closed above its 2,820 resistance last Friday.
Momentum has understandably slowed since, and ahead of Fed announcement today.
Some mixed action: Mixed SPX technicals, Fedex profit warning and trade talk deception rumors.
Meanwhile, volatility (VIX) has registered an intermediate triple bottom at...
The S&P has cleared its MA200 resistance to the upside.
It now heads towards its 2,840 glass ceiling (see chart below).
A break of 2,840 would put us in straight view of the historical 2,940.
All the while, volatility remains low and near meaningful support levels.
This week is starting, and will likely end, in an interesting fashion.
Keep longs. Keep tight stops....
Both SPX and NASDAQ closed the day/week below their MA200 support, now turned resistance.
Market looks a bit oversold after last week’s weakness. Could see a bounce from here.
Will consider that the trend is to the downside until we break and close again above MA200.
FEW CATALYSTS AHEAD, MIND THE DROP
The technical backdrop of the SPX is shaky on most time frames, with indicators turning downwards.
With earnings’ season behind us and trade discussions largely over-telegraphed, the great big rebound could be coming to a pause.
Since December 26, the market is up 16.9% in a straight line: 49 sessions up and 14 sessions down, of...
The VIX ETF has just formed a perfect H&S pattern (see chart)
- Broke neckline to the downside at c. $38
- Bottomed yesterday nearly exactly at the price target of $31.75
- Rebounded yesterday in good volume after hitting the target
- Looking up this morning, seems wants to continue to rebound
In addition, most tech indicators seem to have...
Brokers -even low margin ones- strive on volatility
The more volatility, the more transactions
This augurs well for earnings at IBKR
Go/stay long into earnings
Technicals: Upward Looking
Stock has been showing good relative strength
Short/Med term technicals strong
Good support at 50
Has been consolidating on low...
Flows and fundamentals weak
The stock lost $75bn yesterday on disappointing sales guidance
Fundamentals (growth slowdown) and market flows (-40% in 12w) remain questionable
The stock currently looks oversold on most time frames
It closed yesterday at $142.19, resting on strong resistance at $140:
- SMA 50 on the monthly chart (140.33)
Outside day on Wednesday
Follow-through on Thursday
VIX failing at the 35 resistance
Temporary selling exhaustion after 13/15 down days
Where to next?
Overall trend still down on most time frames
Unclear yet how much this rebound will last
Could be a temporary pause at the weekly SMA 200 (2,350)
Could be a proper reversal after the recent price...
Positive fundamental and technical backdrop
KL Has been bucking the trend of the general market
Going up in good volume in a down-trending market
Currently looking positive on all time frames
Has broken out of recent historical high just below 24
Following the visible rebound in Gold
Buy the breakout
It's looking a little extended here, however:
Still time to buy...
Coming out of a cup-and-handle formation on the daily chart
Currently sitting on SMA 200 support ($34.03/share)
Has held up very well in the correction
Technicals looking strong
Build position above 34
After intense selling on Wed, we had intense buying on Thu in expanding volume.
This suggests that the 2640 support has efficiently played its role.
Good probability of a continuation, subject to payroll numbers.
The market remains fragile due to harm done in October.
A breach below 2640 is unlikely for now in my opinion.
Such breach would...
October: A Damaging Month
Serious technical damage was done to the index in October
11.5% downfall from the high of Sept 21 to the low of Oct 29
Equity markets adjusting to new reality of higher interest rates
Rebound from Oversold Condition
Oct 29 seemingly marked the (temporary?) end of the current correction
Rebounded at 2640 which represents the 23.6% Fib...
Questionable considering the current regulatory issues faced by Social Media stocks
Poor on most time frames
Look at the potentially beautiful H&S formation on the weekly chart (potentially negative)
Negative for now, could be getting a boost/rebound this week after holding and closing the 50 SMA last week
Will very much depend on...
Been warning about the SPX hitting a strong resistance towards the top of the current upward trending channel.
Been suggesting to BUY GOLD and VOLATILITY (see other posts below).
Correction now clearly engaged with Tech leading us down faster, after its beautiful run.
How long this will last is unknown. However, please note the following:
- Long term uptrend...
Clear VIX pattern emerging:
- Volatility has been forming regular waves between every spike or market correction;
- Average duration of a wave over the past 3 years has been 107 days + or - 19 days;
- Significant spikes between waves;
- Current wave duration has been 119 days, suggesting a correction is imminent;
- Volatility spike has properly started this...
After multiple breakouts above historical highs, SPX is hitting its upper trend line resistance.
While the run might continue from here, this resistance creates uncertainty and the index might take a breather or stall altogether.
I would keep long positions with strict stop losses and hedge any upcoming correction in the following manner:
1. Buy volatility (VXX)...
GBP negative on all time frames. Long-term trend down.
Multiple death crosses on the daily chart.
Currently in the middle of the descending long term wedge.
Brexit uncertainty not helping it turn around.
As uncertainty continues, look for it to fall further towards the 1.20 level - Bottom of the wedge forming support.
Short term rebound possible in light of the...