HAL9000

PRO
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Joined Ameritoh
Trade for dollars, not for cents.
Markets Allocation
71 % stocks 20 % indices 9 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
SPX 18% | 12 GPRO 6% | 4 FB 6% | 4 LULU 4% | 3
HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO DAL, D,
DAL: DAL: Removing earnings risk while keeping upside exposure.
49 0 8
DAL, D
DAL: Removing earnings risk while keeping upside exposure.

This post takes over from the previous one (see below), as we propose to take full profits ahead of earnings publication on July 13. The logic is to entirely remove any risk related to earnings disappointment, while keeping full upside exposure. The cost of this strategy will be < 2% (to be put in perspective with the 22.5% we have achieved so far on the long ...

HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO WPM, D,
WPM: WPM: Sell OTM puts for 9% p.a.
70 0 8
WPM, D
WPM: Sell OTM puts for 9% p.a.

On Friday, June 16, we successfully closed our previous short-put trade on WPM (see previous post below). Today WPM is showing continued signs of weakness, in an otherwise strong market. It is currently trading towards the lows of its trading range. It could continue to show weakness if the broader market continues its journey upwards. However, in the context of ...

HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO IBM, D, Long ,
IBM: IBM: A better future ahead?
93 0 4
IBM, D Long
IBM: A better future ahead?

Breakout confirmed over 154.26 in good volume, as expensive technology stocks continue to correct downward and the market continues to chase better value. IBM can now be purchased with a stop-loss at 150 and targets of 158/162/168/180. Blended reward-to-risk of 1.5x to 2.5x depending on where the momentum on the stock takes us. In the best case scenario of IBM ...

HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO RDSA, W,
RDSA: RDSA Short Straddle brings in significant yield
29 1 3
RDSA, W
RDSA Short Straddle brings in significant yield

The current dividend yield on Royal Dutch Shell is 7.22% - Some of the highest yields out there. Combining this with a similar yield on the 7% OTM put, and topping it off with additional income from selling an OTM call, brings in an exceptional annualized yield in excess of 15%. The risk is to be long an oil asset in an uncertain oil environment. However, this is ...

HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO GOOGL, D, Long ,
GOOGL: GOOGL: Buy the (rare) breakout above 1,000!
76 0 5
GOOGL, D Long
GOOGL: Buy the (rare) breakout above 1,000!

GOOGL yesterday broke out of its resistance at $1,000/share and closed above it. This is a noticeable and rare feat. The quality of the fundamentals/growth and the strength of the momentum on this stock are such that there should be few remaining short sellers (1.2% of free float) at the current stratospheric heights. While many would argue that “the valuation is ...

HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO SPX, D, Long ,
SPX: SPX: All systems in the green
114 0 3
SPX, D Long
SPX: All systems in the green

This comment takes over from the previous one (“SPX: Hesitation at the top, breakout at stake” - See link below). MAIN US EQUITY INDEX REMAINS VERY STRONG On a good day, this market goes up. On a bad day, it stays flat. This is the particularity of a very strong market backed by significant liquidity (QE) and an improving global macro backdrop. Add to that a ...

HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO SPX, D,
SPX: SPX: Hesitation at the top, breakout at stake
86 0 5
SPX, D
SPX: Hesitation at the top, breakout at stake

The index closed above its previous 2,400 resistance twice in a row, in what could be construed as a positive, breakout formation. However, and as I said in an earlier post (see below), this took place in low volume and therefore requires confirmation. US market futures are looking down today. Should the market slide below 2,400 today (which looks likely), this ...

HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO IBM, D,
IBM: IBM: WHAT TO DO WITH BIG BLUE?
148 0 7
IBM, D
IBM: WHAT TO DO WITH BIG BLUE?

FUNDAMENTAL PICTURE: CHALLENGING With a consensus recommendation to HOLD and an average consensus price upside of only +10%, it seems the average analyst is not too keen on owning this name. This could be explained by the diminishing topline (5-yr CAGR -5.65%) or the decreasing bottom line (5-yr CAGR -1.0%), or a combination of both reinforced by ROE trending down ...

HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO DAL, D, Long ,
DAL: DAL: Buy on good earnings
80 0 4
DAL, D Long
DAL: Buy on good earnings

FAILED BREAKOUT OF HISTORICAL TOP MEETS MOVING-AVERAGE SUPPORT DAL is currently trading 15% below historical high, after it repeatedly failed to break out since late last year, on what looks like a quadruple-top at the historical high. However, the corrective move seems to have met a decent support at the MA100, $44 level. I would venture to say that the stock has ...

HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO SPX, D, Short ,
SPX: The market has turned... Until when?
167 0 6
SPX, D Short
The market has turned... Until when?

BULLISH, OVERBOUGHT BACKDROP The SPX remains in a bullish medium/long term configuration. However, it technically continues to look overbought on most time frames, and will have to work out this condition if it is to continue upwards. A correction has been widely expected, but has not properly materialized for now. VISBILE TERM TURNING NEGATIVE since Wed March ...

HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO SLW, D,
SLW: Sell puts on volatility spike
81 1 3
SLW, D
Sell puts on volatility spike

The precious metals sector was down hard yesterday on anticipation of further equity market upside post Trump Congress speech today. In this context, SLW was down most on twice average volume. While this would normally make us stay away from the shares, it offers excellent yields on the volatility spike, and a potential opportunity to build a position on the ...

HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO TSLA, W,
TSLA: Beautiful run, high expectations... Watch out!
150 0 9
TSLA, W
Beautiful run, high expectations... Watch out!

THE GOOD Still showing positive momentum on most time frames, after a solid 51.23% rally in < 3 months. This is the type of behavior only such a momentum stock can produce. THE BAD Looking overbought on most time frames. Has been trying to work out this condition, as is visible on the daily chart (below): Hammer reversal at the historical high on Feb 14 followed ...

HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO NESN, D,
NESN: Sell puts on volatility spike post earnings
54 0 4
NESN, D
Sell puts on volatility spike post earnings

SIMPLE STORY Stock down on the back of disappointing earnings Expect further weakness closer to the US open, as US institutions adjust their portfolios This remains a quality defensive stock, quite compelling in the current toppish market context SIMPLE OPTIONAL STRATEGY Selling the June 16 puts with a EUR 69 strike indicatively brings in some EUR 2.00/share, or ...

HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO SIG, D, Long ,
SIG: Bad news in the price? Buy the earnings break.
81 0 2
SIG, D Long
Bad news in the price? Buy the earnings break.

SUFFERING LIKE ALL US RETAILERS Signet is a US mid cap with a leading position in mid-market jewelry retail. It has most recently been impacted negatively by the dull holiday season, and has generally paid the price of the weak US retail environment. EVERYTHING HAS A PRICE? The shares have been suffering, and are consequently trading at inexpensive multiples ...

HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO LM, D, Long ,
LM: LM: More upside after breakout, stay long
83 0 6
LM, D Long
LM: More upside after breakout, stay long

This thread takes over from the preceding one, where we suggested to go long at 30 with a target at 34.50 - REACHED. FUNDAMENTALS IMPROVING Over the course of the past quarter, we have seen slow sequential improvement in AUMS The industry overall is doing better, in an environment where market conditions have been improving EXCELLENT TECHNICAL BEHAVIOR The stock ...

HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO DAI, D,
DAI: Sell puts on orderly consolidation
43 0 3
DAI, D
Sell puts on orderly consolidation

Consolidating after disappointing earnings Stock down a little in an orderly fashion Approaching oversold levels on daily chart Rebounded off support of main up channel Long term trend still looking up Take advantage of the volatility and sell short-dated, close to the money puts... SELL DAIMLER 17MAR17 E66 PUTS = 1.35 (Ind.) and make some 17% annualized

HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO STX, D, Long ,
STX: STX: A beautiful breakout to be bought
118 0 4
STX, D Long
STX: A beautiful breakout to be bought

SHORT TERM POSITIVE STX broke out in July 2016 and again yesterday on the back of stronger than expected earnings. The volume on breakout day (7.8x average daily volume) makes it a very significant move - One of the main invitations to buy the shares even after they have propelled upwards. Yesterday's shooting star could be construed as a bearish reversal, but it ...

HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO GPRO, D, Long ,
GPRO: Short squeeze at play
169 0 7
GPRO, D Long
Short squeeze at play

TOO MUCH BAD NEWS IN THE PRICE? All it took was a positive comment from the Pacific Crest analyst yesterday, about the upcoming earnings and the prospects for Karma, to take the stock 10% up in 3x average volume. Short interest has been so high on GPRO and the stock has been so neglected in the recent rally that any marginally positive presumption (not even news) ...

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