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Current setup We are currently in the third attempt of the commodity to break the 1750 resistance to the upside. The breakout form the high, symmetrical, triangle formation is still in play. Our stop-loss at 1680 is still valid and has not been breached. Any dollar weakness would help this trade further. Recommended action If you own it, hold it with stop-loss...

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It did not take long for Gold to confirm my expected breakout Please see my previous post below, from May 15 UPTREND CONFIRMED Gold still looking positive on all time frames Symmetrical high triangle breakout confirmed Healthy uptrend confirmed, reinforces bullish stance Takes place in increasing volume, another positive sign Gearing up for Golden Cross...

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Technically: Strong Gold looking good on most time frames (D/W/M). Nearing previous mid-term resistance at 1747.74. Broke yesterday out of a high symmetrical, ascending triangle. Fundamentally: Strong USD at a high, momentarily holding back dollar-denominated assets. QE and rates down should weigh on dollar over the next few quarters. Futures already pricing...

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THIRD REBOUND OFF SUPPORT: HOW SUSTAINABLE? VIX is better analyzed on the D chart, as opposed to longer time frames. On this time frame, the volatility barometer has completed a triple-bottom. It now looks ready to rebound off its support at 13.50, a long-awaited event. Meanwhile, SPX is indicated below its 2,820 resistance, for the 6th consecutive...

HAL9000 Updated 

MARKET DIRECTION UP, CAUTION STILL REQUIRED The index crossed and closed above its 2,820 resistance last Friday. Momentum has understandably slowed since, and ahead of Fed announcement today. Some mixed action: Mixed SPX technicals, Fedex profit warning and trade talk deception rumors. Meanwhile, volatility (VIX) has registered an intermediate triple bottom at...

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The S&P has cleared its MA200 resistance to the upside. It now heads towards its 2,840 glass ceiling (see chart below). A break of 2,840 would put us in straight view of the historical 2,940. All the while, volatility remains low and near meaningful support levels. This week is starting, and will likely end, in an interesting fashion. Keep longs. Keep tight stops....

HAL9000 Updated 

Both SPX and NASDAQ closed the day/week below their MA200 support, now turned resistance. Market looks a bit oversold after last week’s weakness. Could see a bounce from here. Will consider that the trend is to the downside until we break and close again above MA200.

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FEW CATALYSTS AHEAD, MIND THE DROP The technical backdrop of the SPX is shaky on most time frames, with indicators turning downwards. With earnings’ season behind us and trade discussions largely over-telegraphed, the great big rebound could be coming to a pause. Since December 26, the market is up 16.9% in a straight line: 49 sessions up and 14 sessions down,...

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TECHNICALLY PERFECT The VIX ETF has just formed a perfect H&S pattern (see chart) - Broke neckline to the downside at c. $38 - Bottomed yesterday nearly exactly at the price target of $31.75 - Rebounded yesterday in good volume after hitting the target - Looking up this morning, seems wants to continue to rebound In addition, most tech indicators seem to have...

HAL9000 Updated 

Backdrop Outside day on Wednesday Follow-through on Thursday VIX failing at the 35 resistance Temporary selling exhaustion after 13/15 down days Where to next? Overall trend still down on most time frames Unclear yet how much this rebound will last Could be a temporary pause at the weekly SMA 200 (2,350) Could be a proper reversal after the recent price...

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Fundamentals: Positive Brokers -even low margin ones- strive on volatility The more volatility, the more transactions This augurs well for earnings at IBKR Go/stay long into earnings Technicals: Upward Looking Stock has been showing good relative strength Short/Med term technicals strong Good support at 50 Flows: Supportive Has been consolidating on low...

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Flows and fundamentals weak The stock lost $75bn yesterday on disappointing sales guidance Fundamentals (growth slowdown) and market flows (-40% in 12w) remain questionable Technicals compelling The stock currently looks oversold on most time frames It closed yesterday at $142.19, resting on strong resistance at $140: - SMA 50 on the monthly chart (140.33) -...

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Positive fundamental and technical backdrop KL Has been bucking the trend of the general market Going up in good volume in a down-trending market Currently looking positive on all time frames Has broken out of recent historical high just below 24 Following the visible rebound in Gold Buy the breakout It's looking a little extended here, however: Still time to...

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Backdrop Coming out of a cup-and-handle formation on the daily chart Currently sitting on SMA 200 support ($34.03/share) Has held up very well in the correction Technicals looking strong Strategy Build position above 34 TARGET 36/38/42 STOP 34 /32/30 R/R 1.35-1.50

HAL9000 Updated 

The Good After intense selling on Wed, we had intense buying on Thu in expanding volume. This suggests that the 2640 support has efficiently played its role. Good probability of a continuation, subject to payroll numbers. The Bad The market remains fragile due to harm done in October. A breach below 2640 is unlikely for now in my opinion. Such breach would...

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October: A Damaging Month Serious technical damage was done to the index in October 11.5% downfall from the high of Sept 21 to the low of Oct 29 Equity markets adjusting to new reality of higher interest rates Rebound from Oversold Condition Oct 29 seemingly marked the (temporary?) end of the current correction Rebounded at 2640 which represents the 23.6% Fib...

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Fundamentals Questionable considering the current regulatory issues faced by Social Media stocks Technicals Poor on most time frames Look at the potentially beautiful H&S formation on the weekly chart (potentially negative) Flows Negative for now, could be getting a boost/rebound this week after holding and closing the 50 SMA last week Will very much depend...

HAL9000 Updated 

Clear VIX pattern emerging : - Volatility has been forming regular waves between every spike or market correction; - Average duration of a wave over the past 3 years has been 107 days + or - 19 days; - Significant spikes between waves; - Current wave duration has been 119 days, suggesting a correction is imminent; - Volatility spike has properly started this...