HAL9000

PRO
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Last visit Joined 2 years ago Ameritoh
Trade for dollars, not for cents.
Markets Allocation
70 % stocks 23 % indices 7 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
SPX 21% | 12 GPRO 7% | 4 FB 7% | 4 LULU 5% | 3
HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO SPX, D, Short , 20 days ago
SPX: The market has turned... Until when?
111 0 6
SPX, D Short
The market has turned... Until when?

BULLISH, OVERBOUGHT BACKDROP The SPX remains in a bullish medium/long term configuration. However, it technically continues to look overbought on most time frames, and will have to work out this condition if it is to continue upwards. A correction has been widely expected, but has not properly materialized for now. VISBILE TERM TURNING NEGATIVE since Wed March ...

HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO SLW, D, a month ago
SLW: Sell puts on volatility spike
62 1 3
SLW, D
Sell puts on volatility spike

The precious metals sector was down hard yesterday on anticipation of further equity market upside post Trump Congress speech today. In this context, SLW was down most on twice average volume. While this would normally make us stay away from the shares, it offers excellent yields on the volatility spike, and a potential opportunity to build a position on the ...

HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO TSLA, W, a month ago
TSLA: Beautiful run, high expectations... Watch out!
143 0 9
TSLA, W
Beautiful run, high expectations... Watch out!

THE GOOD Still showing positive momentum on most time frames, after a solid 51.23% rally in < 3 months. This is the type of behavior only such a momentum stock can produce. THE BAD Looking overbought on most time frames. Has been trying to work out this condition, as is visible on the daily chart (below): Hammer reversal at the historical high on Feb 14 followed ...

HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO NESN, D, a month ago
NESN: Sell puts on volatility spike post earnings
47 0 4
NESN, D
Sell puts on volatility spike post earnings

SIMPLE STORY Stock down on the back of disappointing earnings Expect further weakness closer to the US open, as US institutions adjust their portfolios This remains a quality defensive stock, quite compelling in the current toppish market context SIMPLE OPTIONAL STRATEGY Selling the June 16 puts with a EUR 69 strike indicatively brings in some EUR 2.00/share, or ...

HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO SIG, D, Long , a month ago
SIG: Bad news in the price? Buy the earnings break.
70 0 2
SIG, D Long
Bad news in the price? Buy the earnings break.

SUFFERING LIKE ALL US RETAILERS Signet is a US mid cap with a leading position in mid-market jewelry retail. It has most recently been impacted negatively by the dull holiday season, and has generally paid the price of the weak US retail environment. EVERYTHING HAS A PRICE? The shares have been suffering, and are consequently trading at inexpensive multiples ...

HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO LM, D, Long , 2 months ago
LM: LM: More upside after breakout, stay long
78 0 6
LM, D Long
LM: More upside after breakout, stay long

This thread takes over from the preceding one, where we suggested to go long at 30 with a target at 34.50 - REACHED. FUNDAMENTALS IMPROVING Over the course of the past quarter, we have seen slow sequential improvement in AUMS The industry overall is doing better, in an environment where market conditions have been improving EXCELLENT TECHNICAL BEHAVIOR The stock ...

HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO DAI, D, 2 months ago
DAI: Sell puts on orderly consolidation
39 0 3
DAI, D
Sell puts on orderly consolidation

Consolidating after disappointing earnings Stock down a little in an orderly fashion Approaching oversold levels on daily chart Rebounded off support of main up channel Long term trend still looking up Take advantage of the volatility and sell short-dated, close to the money puts... SELL DAIMLER 17MAR17 E66 PUTS = 1.35 (Ind.) and make some 17% annualized

HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO STX, D, Long , 2 months ago
STX: STX: A beautiful breakout to be bought
109 0 4
STX, D Long
STX: A beautiful breakout to be bought

SHORT TERM POSITIVE STX broke out in July 2016 and again yesterday on the back of stronger than expected earnings. The volume on breakout day (7.8x average daily volume) makes it a very significant move - One of the main invitations to buy the shares even after they have propelled upwards. Yesterday's shooting star could be construed as a bearish reversal, but it ...

HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO GPRO, D, Long , 2 months ago
GPRO: Short squeeze at play
154 0 7
GPRO, D Long
Short squeeze at play

TOO MUCH BAD NEWS IN THE PRICE? All it took was a positive comment from the Pacific Crest analyst yesterday, about the upcoming earnings and the prospects for Karma, to take the stock 10% up in 3x average volume. Short interest has been so high on GPRO and the stock has been so neglected in the recent rally that any marginally positive presumption (not even news) ...

HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO SPX, D, Long , 2 months ago
SPX: Another breakout above historical highs
140 0 7
SPX, D Long
Another breakout above historical highs

Yesterday's session produced yet another intraday breakout above the previous historical high. This market remains very strong and refuses to go down, notwithstanding a rich valuation and still supported by abundant central bank liquidity. We have had a noticeable "time consolidation" for the past month, where the index did nothing since December 20. This new ...

HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO FB, D, 2 months ago
FB: Earnings upcoming: Get options exposure
237 0 10
FB, D
Earnings upcoming: Get options exposure

THE BACKDROP ON FB: A STOCK WE LIKE TO OWN The stock is up some 7.5% since we recommended to buy at $118.69. We are currently in the middle of the up-channel and the stock looks overbought and ready for a consolidation, probably until earnings are out (expected Feb 1). Owners should hold on to positions (see earlier idea "Three times lucky?") Non-holders of the ...

HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO MOY0, D, 2 months ago
MOY0: Consolidation Time
34 0 3
MOY0, D
Consolidation Time

After a +22.6% performance since late June 2016, this index has been looking stretched and bound for a consolidation. The long and medium term pictures are still looking positive, a testimony of the general bullish configuration we are still in. However, the short term (daily) has been consolidating form an overbought condition. Would not put new money to work ...

HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO SPX, D, 2 months ago
SPX: Hanging High
32 0 4
SPX, D
Hanging High

THE TECHNICAL SITUATION: BREAKOUT ON Index still in bullish breakout mode, technically positive on most time frames. There is a general view -which I share- that a consolidation is long overdue. "Time consolidation" for now: Index flat while it works away its overbought condition. Valuation currently 50% > historical average... MANY POSITIVE INDICATIONS Still ...

HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO TWTR, D, 2 months ago
TWTR: Confusing fundamentals, attractive technicals => ?!
125 0 6
TWTR, D
Confusing fundamentals, attractive technicals => ?!

MIXED PICTURE ON TWTR Fundamentals are still poor But the stock could be technically appealing TECHNICALS FIRST Up-channel in place since late May 2016 Short-term currently positive: Trading at the bottom of the channel Traders could trade the channel: Long around 16.50, short around 20.50 HOWEVER stock near historical low ($13.91) is insufficient to trigger ...

HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO IBKR, D, Long , 2 months ago
IBKR: A trade for 2017...
102 0 2
IBKR, D Long
A trade for 2017...

Banks -> Asset Managers -> ?? ==> BROKERS ! SECTOR THEME FOR 2017 ? Main street banks flew first, and we are betting that asset managers will follow (LM, BX). And then what? The logical step down the sector will be the brokers: Smaller, less visible, less owned, yet sure to benefit from the pickup in trading volume of the bull market. They will be equally served ...

HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO BIDU, D, Long , 2 months ago
BIDU: Back in fashion?
92 0 2
BIDU, D Long
Back in fashion?

GOOD FUNDAMENTALS Consensus = Buy Valuation = Appealing (PE 13.42x) Growth and profitability = Exceptional (ROE 44%, 5yr growth +53%) Only target price is weak (flat), but could it be revised upwards? TREND PICKUP Sitting on the long-term MA50 support Closed just below the medium-term MA100 resistance Looks like it is possibly turning positive on the LT ...

HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO KSS, D, 2 months ago
KSS: Another volatility spike
59 0 1
KSS, D
Another volatility spike

Same story as Macy's: - Disappointing Christmas sales - Disappointing, revised guidance - Double broker downgrade Stock indicated down 15% Wide gap (46-49) to be bridged Volatility should spike accordingly Opportunity to sell 10% OTM puts on the 20 Jan maturity

HAL9000 HAL9000 PRO M, D, 2 months ago
M: Sell volatility on the spike post numbers.
63 0 4
M, D
Sell volatility on the spike post numbers.

POOR FUNDAMENTALS CONFIRMED Macy's just released disappointing sales figures and guidance. Announcing 68 store closures and the layoff of 10,000 employees. The stock is indicated 10% down to 32.20. Consensus is already quite down-beat on the story, and likely to become even more so. Expect downgrades on the back of the news. VOLATILITY PICKUP EXPECTED The ...

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