The sentiment for the drillers at this point is still slightly bearish overall. NE is also perceived as being a little weaker comparing to RIG etc in terms of backlog. That's why I think it has a good change to revisit $6.0 or even lower. The chart is just a reference and could be totally wrong.
The market also ...
The FOMC December meeting is putting so much pressure on PMs that once it's over, PMs will bounce no matter what decision FOMC makes.
This will be very similar to SPX500's behavior before election. Once the uncertainly was over with election, SPX rallied hard, no matter who won.
For this setup to work, AG has to regain $10 quickly, ideally by the end of next week. Otherwise this setup is likely to be invalid.
If the FED only raises by 0.25, then I would say there is a 60% chance AG can reach this $12 target by the end of Jan 2017.