1. Green path: almost straight to another all time high and then drop.
2. Blue path: after a decent drop then back to all time high and then drop.
3. Red path: market has already seen the top. Mostly sideways and down from here.
1. a weakened economy and heavy debt load limit Fed's ability to tighten too much down the road. When things get really bad, QE might even be restarted
2. US-China trade war resolution could help the RMB and in turn lift gold