Trade ideas
KWEB/VTI WHERE EAST MEETS WEST Hey guys,
Thank you for organizing this interesting competition.
If anyone is interested ! Join in the fun
Thanks for checking out my thesis and hope you guys enjoy it.
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Basically, i will be doing a TOP-DOWN analysis approach for my thesis between the two major economies. We will be looking at simple macro and very logically comparison.
After which, i will break down the chart into different sections with Momentum theory as the base and other confluence elements as supporting. We will trade what we see on the chart. Nothing speculative.
===================Macro=======================
Macro
$VTI - High inflationary environment / rate hikes / quantitative tightening / bull run for the last 2 years / stocks overvalued / might be looking at negative GDP + inflation = stagflation = risk off for stocks
$KWEB - Moderate inflationary environment / quantitative easing / correction for the last 2 years / low PE ratio / stocks undervalued
===================Technical analysis =======================
Technical analysis
1) Falling wedge formation
The initial momentum was very strong and diminish over time towards the end before breaking out. This shows that the momentum had extinguished and will be looking for a trend reversal. As seen on the break out and retest.
2) The price broke out from the 1 year downward trend line and did a retest / rejected with a engulfing candle forming the left shoulder and head of the inverse head and shoulders. We are no longer making lower lows.
3) As seen on the Momentum theory indicator, the bearish momentum had bottomed out and broke out from the neckline. An emerging bull momentum might emerge once the price action had proven its strength. Momentum will above 0 and will commence its run.
4) We are looking at a potential inverse head and shoulder or cup and handle formations. Both are bullish price action and trend reversal formation. This can be confirmed over the next 1-2 months after the right shoulder / or handle is formed.
Based on point 1,2 & 3. We can established that the $KWEB had ended its bear run / rejected the bottom. And once the right shoulder formed and price moved above the major support & resistance area and 200 moving average. A bull trend will emerge.
===================Entry=======================
Entry.
A multi confluence entry would enhance the confidence, increases the probability of success.
Depending on risk appetite, we have listed two possible entry scenario. Both scenarios have great risk to rewards ratio.
Entry 1
- Right shoulder or handle formed
- Price goes above major support and resistance neckline
- The 50/200 moving average golden cross = this will be the entry trigger. Stop loss can be % of your capital or the low of the inverse head and shoulders
- Exit will be either your preferred target % or ride with trailing moving average i.e 50/200 moving average death cross
Entry 2
- 30% position on bull flag of the cup and handle / or right shoulder formed
- 30% position on breakout of cup and handle / breakout of the major support & resistance neckline
- 40% position once 50/200 moving average golden cross
- Stop loss can be % of your capital or the low of the inverse head and shoulders
- Exit will be either your preferred target % or ride with trailing moving average i.e 50/200 moving average death cross
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Thank you for your time and hope you enjoyed my analysis.
Trade safe and always manage your risk !
" When you genuinely accept the risks, you will be at peace with any outcome.
- Mark Douglas "
WATCH $KWEBBullish
- Making higher lows since March / June / Sept 2022
- Broke downward trend line & retest
- Funds accumulating
- Great value
- Good R/R trade
Entry idea
- For members
Stop loss depending on entry and risk appetite. But always set meaningful stops.
"“I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.””
Cheers and happy trading!
KWEB: UNIQUE LONG TERM OPPORTUNITY?KWEB, Chinese internet ETF
Chinese techs have been in a bear market since February 2021, with the price of KWEB unable to break above the long trend line (in blue).
Kweb has found a bottom in March 2022.
Is Kweb bullish? Is it the end of the bear market for Chinese tech stocks?
Here is everything you need to know before making a decision:
- Currently the price is trying to create a bottoming base as we have seen higher lows (light black line) since March and the bearish trend line (blue) was broken.
- I see an ascending triangle with the top horizontal line of the triangle at 32.71. We tried to break this line 3 times but failed to maintain above. A sustainable break above 32.71 would be considered as bullish.
- We could backtest the rising black line of the ascending triangle before starting a bullish trend, but not sure.
- Mind the small gap around 28 that could also be filled.
- We're above the ichimoku cloud, which shows that the trend is changing. The lagging span (in green) still have to confirm the change of trend by crossing the bearish blue trend line.
- China in quantitative easing mode as western economies are tightening.
I'm long KWEB with a long term view. My buying zone is between 30 and 27.74 with a stop at 26.40 .
Trade safe.
$KWEB - possible buying opportunity around $29AMEX:KWEB seems to be holding decent support based on historic volume/supply levels of $29.20 (gray shaded box with gray arrow). Not only is KWEB holding support, but volume flow turned net positive around 1:30 pm EST on 6/13. We should see a fairly quick return to $32 next week or two. Stop loss if prices fall below $29 for more than two hours as major support would be breached. 1:3 risk reward.
6/12/22 KWEBKraneShares Trust CSI China Internet ETF ( AMEX:KWEB )
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $--
Current Price: $37.80-$39.60
Breakout price: $32.70
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $31.60-$26.35
Price Target: $37.80-$39.60
Estimated Duration to Target: 50-53d
Contract of Interest: $KWEB 8/19/22 35c
Trade price as of publish date: $2.38/contract
Karen Share ETF China USA Sun Storm Investment Trading Desk & NexGen Wealth Management Service Present's: SSITD & NexGen Portfolio of the Week Series
Focus: Worldwide
By Sun Storm Investment Research & NexGen Wealth Management Service
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Disclaimer: Sun Storm Investment and NexGen are not registered financial advisors, so please do your own research before trading & investing anything. This is information is for only research purposes not for actual trading & investing decision.
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Long when pullback20th March 2022
KWEB (Chinese internet ETF)
Since China says it will support Chinese IPOs abroad, calls for closure on tech crackdown last week, we can see most Chinese ADR shares shoot up. If KWEB fall below $20, will not be a good sign.
Otherwise, this ETF is good to enter for long term investor. As for trading, long whenever it pull back.
Closed: KWEB March 18th 35C/39P Short Strangle... for a 6.67 debit.
Comments: Took the opportunity to close out this inverted setup while I had the chance to scratch it out. Collected a total of 6.77, (See Post Below), so made a whopping .10 ($10) on it, which is better than a loss. Rank/implied remains decent at 62/53.6, so may re-up tomorrow depending on what underlyings float to the top of my screener.
Closing: KWEB March 18th 27 Short Put... for a .12 debit.
Comments: Added this for a .63 credit to my inverted 35C/39P short strangle to rapidify cost basis reduction and improve my break evens. (See Post Below). Since price is back between my short strikes and the short put is approaching worthless, I'm taking it off here. Total credits collected of 6.77 with break evens of 32.23 on the put side, 41.77 on the call.
Rolling: KWEB January 18th 38.42C/40.42P to February 18th ... 35.42C/39.42P short strangle for a 1.04 credit.
Comments: Another inverted that I'm rolling out a tad early and on which I've collected a total of 5.25 in credit. (See Post Below, to which the 1.04 credit received here should be added). Like ARKK, it also experienced a distribution, which ended changing the strike prices. In any event, it's a 4.00-wide inversion on which I've collected 5.25, so I can still make money on it, but will probably scratch it out if I get an opportunity and re-up with an unbroken setup if the implied volatility remains attractive.
KWEB: China tech bottomed?I think it's either the bottom or very close to it. Worth taking a punt here, risk 3 average ranges down and go for the gold .
Let's see how this one works out, I'm not risking big on China overall, but from a contrarian standpoint it is really interesting as to pass on it here. It will be more confirmed once the daily chart flashes a bottom signal, this would take a couple weeks, after not falling lower.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.






















