Hey guys,
Thank you for organizing this interesting competition.
If anyone is interested ! Join in the fun
Thanks for checking out my thesis and hope you guys enjoy it.
==========================================
Basically, i will be doing a TOP-DOWN analysis approach for my thesis between the two major economies. We will be looking at simple macro and very logically comparison.
After which, i will break down the chart into different sections with Momentum theory as the base and other confluence elements as supporting. We will trade what we see on the chart. Nothing speculative.
===================Macro=======================
Macro
$VTI - High inflationary environment / rate hikes / quantitative tightening / bull run for the last 2 years / stocks overvalued / might be looking at negative GDP + inflation = stagflation = risk off for stocks
$KWEB - Moderate inflationary environment / quantitative easing / correction for the last 2 years / low PE ratio / stocks undervalued
===================Technical analysis =======================
Technical analysis
1) Falling wedge formation
The initial momentum was very strong and diminish over time towards the end before breaking out. This shows that the momentum had extinguished and will be looking for a trend reversal. As seen on the break out and retest.
2) The price broke out from the 1 year downward trend line and did a retest / rejected with a engulfing candle forming the left shoulder and head of the inverse head and shoulders. We are no longer making lower lows.
3) As seen on the Momentum theory indicator, the bearish momentum had bottomed out and broke out from the neckline. An emerging bull momentum might emerge once the price action had proven its strength. Momentum will above 0 and will commence its run.
4) We are looking at a potential inverse head and shoulder or cup and handle formations. Both are bullish price action and trend reversal formation. This can be confirmed over the next 1-2 months after the right shoulder / or handle is formed.
Based on point 1,2 & 3. We can established that the $KWEB had ended its bear run / rejected the bottom. And once the right shoulder formed and price moved above the major support & resistance area and 200 moving average. A bull trend will emerge.
===================Entry=======================
Entry.
A multi confluence entry would enhance the confidence, increases the probability of success.
Depending on risk appetite, we have listed two possible entry scenario. Both scenarios have great risk to rewards ratio.
Entry 1
- Right shoulder or handle formed
- Price goes above major support and resistance neckline
- The 50/200 moving average golden cross = this will be the entry trigger. Stop loss can be % of your capital or the low of the inverse head and shoulders
- Exit will be either your preferred target % or ride with trailing moving average i.e 50/200 moving average death cross
Entry 2
- 30% position on bull flag of the cup and handle / or right shoulder formed
- 30% position on breakout of cup and handle / breakout of the major support & resistance neckline
- 40% position once 50/200 moving average golden cross
- Stop loss can be % of your capital or the low of the inverse head and shoulders
- Exit will be either your preferred target % or ride with trailing moving average i.e 50/200 moving average death cross
=====================END=====================
Thank you for your time and hope you enjoyed my analysis.
Trade safe and always manage your risk !
" When you genuinely accept the risks, you will be at peace with any outcome.
- Mark Douglas "
Thank you for organizing this interesting competition.
If anyone is interested ! Join in the fun
Thanks for checking out my thesis and hope you guys enjoy it.
==========================================
Basically, i will be doing a TOP-DOWN analysis approach for my thesis between the two major economies. We will be looking at simple macro and very logically comparison.
After which, i will break down the chart into different sections with Momentum theory as the base and other confluence elements as supporting. We will trade what we see on the chart. Nothing speculative.
===================Macro=======================
Macro
$VTI - High inflationary environment / rate hikes / quantitative tightening / bull run for the last 2 years / stocks overvalued / might be looking at negative GDP + inflation = stagflation = risk off for stocks
$KWEB - Moderate inflationary environment / quantitative easing / correction for the last 2 years / low PE ratio / stocks undervalued
===================Technical analysis =======================
Technical analysis
1) Falling wedge formation
The initial momentum was very strong and diminish over time towards the end before breaking out. This shows that the momentum had extinguished and will be looking for a trend reversal. As seen on the break out and retest.
2) The price broke out from the 1 year downward trend line and did a retest / rejected with a engulfing candle forming the left shoulder and head of the inverse head and shoulders. We are no longer making lower lows.
3) As seen on the Momentum theory indicator, the bearish momentum had bottomed out and broke out from the neckline. An emerging bull momentum might emerge once the price action had proven its strength. Momentum will above 0 and will commence its run.
4) We are looking at a potential inverse head and shoulder or cup and handle formations. Both are bullish price action and trend reversal formation. This can be confirmed over the next 1-2 months after the right shoulder / or handle is formed.
Based on point 1,2 & 3. We can established that the $KWEB had ended its bear run / rejected the bottom. And once the right shoulder formed and price moved above the major support & resistance area and 200 moving average. A bull trend will emerge.
===================Entry=======================
Entry.
A multi confluence entry would enhance the confidence, increases the probability of success.
Depending on risk appetite, we have listed two possible entry scenario. Both scenarios have great risk to rewards ratio.
Entry 1
- Right shoulder or handle formed
- Price goes above major support and resistance neckline
- The 50/200 moving average golden cross = this will be the entry trigger. Stop loss can be % of your capital or the low of the inverse head and shoulders
- Exit will be either your preferred target % or ride with trailing moving average i.e 50/200 moving average death cross
Entry 2
- 30% position on bull flag of the cup and handle / or right shoulder formed
- 30% position on breakout of cup and handle / breakout of the major support & resistance neckline
- 40% position once 50/200 moving average golden cross
- Stop loss can be % of your capital or the low of the inverse head and shoulders
- Exit will be either your preferred target % or ride with trailing moving average i.e 50/200 moving average death cross
=====================END=====================
Thank you for your time and hope you enjoyed my analysis.
Trade safe and always manage your risk !
" When you genuinely accept the risks, you will be at peace with any outcome.
- Mark Douglas "
Comment:
And i must add
US inflation rate last 3 months
8.5%, 8.3%, 8.6%
China inflation rate last 3 months
1.5%, 2.1%, 2.1%
Trade what you see.
US inflation rate last 3 months
8.5%, 8.3%, 8.6%
China inflation rate last 3 months
1.5%, 2.1%, 2.1%
Trade what you see.
Comment:
Making higher lows since Mar / May / Aug 2022
A new trend will emerge once broke above neck-line!
A new trend will emerge once broke above neck-line!
$KWEB : -7.46%
$VTI : -19.91%
It is not hard to see who will be the emerging leader for the next few quarters.