Continuation of the "AI Bubble" A chart for NVDA that illustrates the parabolic curve on this very large timeframe
To expect a curve like this to break is unlikely
AI will have huge implications
The potential of AGI aswell is huge for humanity in general. I don't see a bubble at all.
Weekly timeframe
Trade ideas
Nvidia - Now is the time to go short!💣Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) is now creating a top:
🔎Analysis summary:
Just a couple of days ago, Nvidia perfectly retested a major resistance trendline. Always in the past, such a retest was followed by a major move towards the downside. Therefore, Nvidia is preparing for a major drop, which could lead to another -25% drop in the future.
📝Levels to watch:
$180 and $140 and $100
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
Tech Rally Sputters Ahead of Nvidia Earnings. What to KnowIs the powerful AI sector finally out of breath? With valuations that stretched, some investors fear if we all took it too far.
After months of seemingly unstoppable gains, the tech trade is finally showing signs of fatigue. Stocks are back in the red this week, with technology — the sector that’s carried the entire market on its silicon shoulders — leading the declines.
The S&P 500 SP:SPX , up more than 35% since its April lows and boasting 36 record closes this year, has been powered almost entirely by a handful of tech heavyweights.
The Magnificent Seven now make up nearly 40% of the index’s market value and roughly a third of its earnings.
But now, investors are wondering if the rally’s run too far, too fast. The question echoing across trading desks: Is AI finally out of breath?
💸 The Price of Perfection
It’s not that tech earnings have been bad — in fact, they’ve been stellar. Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT , Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN , Meta NASDAQ:META , and Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL all beat expectations last week and promised even more AI spending next year. Translation: more orders for Nvidia’s chips, more data centers, more server farms, more everything.
But good news isn’t moving the needle right now. When valuations stretch this far, even “great” can start to look “meh.” Investors are realizing that the higher you climb, the thinner the air gets.
The entire AI complex — from semiconductors to cloud computing — now trades at multiples that assume not just perfection, but sustained, exponential perfection. And that’s a tough sell when rates are still relatively high, inflation is sticky, and the Fed remains data-deprived thanks to a looming government shutdown (now the longest in history).
🧠 Nvidia: The Market’s Favorite Crystal Ball
Which brings us to Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA — the stock that can save the day. The chipmaker reports fiscal third-quarter earnings on November 19, and it’s shaping up to be a defining moment for the entire market.
Expectations are sky-high: analysts see earnings per share of $1.25, up from $0.81 a year ago , and revenue of $54.6 billion, a jaw-dropping 56% increase from last year’s $35 billion.
If Nvidia delivers (again), it could reignite the rally and remind investors why they fell in love with AI in the first place. But if there’s even a hint of deceleration — a cautious forecast, a whisper of supply constraints — the selloff could accelerate.
Simply put: as goes Nvidia, so goes the market. Fast fact: Nvidia washed out more than $450 billion from its valuation in just the last three days .
🔌 The Waiting Game
With two long weeks until Nvidia’s report, traders are stuck in a sort of limbo. Without a fresh catalyst, the market could decide to churn sideways — or drift lower — as profit-takers cash in on their massive gains.
The uncertainty isn’t helping either. A government shutdown delays key economic data, leaving the Fed flying in the dark just as investors are trying to gauge when rate cuts might actually arrive.
That means more guesswork, less conviction, and a good chance of exaggerated market swings.
So don’t be surprised if volatility ticks higher before Nvidia’s big reveal — the gem of the earnings calendar .
Off to you : How do you see the next two weeks unfolding? And, more importantly, are you bullish or bearish on Nvidia’s earnings report?
NVDA – First Signs of Stabilization After a Heavy Selloff (11/17NVDA finally showed the first real sign of stabilization after multiple days of controlled selling. The move off the lows wasn’t random — when you zoom into the different timeframes and combine it with the GEX landscape, the bounce actually makes a lot of sense. NVDA dropped right into a deep put zone, bottomed, and then climbed back with intent.
Let’s break down what’s really happening here.
1️⃣ 1-Hour Chart — Downtrend, but Buyers Finally Stepped Up
The 1H chart shows NVDA breaking every minor support for days, sliding cleanly down the descending channel. The selling pressure cooled only when price touched the 178–181 region. That’s where the trendline support met previous liquidity pockets, and buyers reacted instantly.
What’s notable is how quickly NVDA recovered back toward 190. That tells me two things:
1. Sellers covered aggressively at the low.
2. Buyers were waiting to step in near that trendline.
Important 1H levels:
* 190–192: First resistance test
* 194–195: Critical zone NVDA couldn’t reclaim last time
* 199–202: Bigger resistance if momentum expands
* 178–181: Strong demand zone that started the bounce
The 1H is showing the first shift from “straight down” to “controlled bounce.”
2️⃣ 15-Minute Chart — Momentum Turning Upward, but Needs Confirmation
The 15M chart shows NVDA reclaiming multiple small bullish FVGs on the way up. The most important part is how NVDA handled the intraday pullbacks — each dip was shallow and got bought quickly.
That’s what early reversal behavior looks like.
Key things I see on the 15M:
* Bullish FVGs forming under price → buyers absorbing dips
* Short-term resistance at 191–192 → price hesitating here
* Trendline reclaim gives NVDA room to test higher
The 15M doesn’t confirm a strong uptrend yet, but it shows a clear shift in character from sellers dominating to buyers at least competing.
3️⃣ GEX (1-Hour) — Explains Exactly Why NVDA Bottomed Where It Did
This is the part that ties the entire move together.
NVDA bounced precisely at the deep PUT wall around 178–181, where hedging pressure spikes. That’s why the reversal there was so sharp.
Upside Gamma Levels
* 191: First GEX pull
* 194–195: Heavy GEX cluster
* 200–203: 2nd call wall
* 210: Large GEX10 + 3rd call wall
If NVDA can reclaim 194–195, the move toward 200–203 becomes much easier than it looks on the chart alone.
Downside Gamma Levels
* 182: Pivot zone
* 178: Main put wall — the exact level that stopped the selling
* 175–170: Only activates if NVDA loses 178 decisively
The GEX structure is clean:
* Sellers lose power above 192
* Buyers lose control below 182
* Real battle zone sits between 188–192
This is the kind of GEX map that makes traders ask:
“Why does NVDA always bounce or stall at the same weird levels?”
(And yes — GEX gives the answer.)
🎯 How I’m Trading NVDA for 11/17
🔼 Bullish Scenario (Preferred Only Above 192)
NVDA needs to clear 192 with strength. If that happens:
Stock Trade Idea:
* Entry: 192.20–192.50
* Targets:
* 194
* 195
* 198
* 200–203 (call wall zone)
Options Idea:
* 195C or 200C
* Momentum-based trade IF NVDA reclaims 192 with volume
* Scale at each GEX zone
This is the cleanest setup.
🔽 Bearish Scenario (Only Valid If NVDA Rejects 192 or Loses 182)
Entry #1 (Aggressive):
* Rejects 192 → short into 188
Entry #2 (Stronger Confirmation):
* Break below 182
Targets:
* 180
* 178 (strong put wall)
* 175 (if volatility spikes)
Options Idea:
* 185P for quick moves
* 180P for continuation
* Below 178 → downside accelerates sharply
⚠️ Chop Zone: 188–191
This is the balance area where NVDA is likely to pause, fake out, and trap both sides.
Best avoided unless you’re scalping with tight risk.
Final Thoughts
NVDA finally caught a real bid after a long series of lower highs and lower lows. The bounce wasn’t accidental — it aligned with deep GEX put walls and a structural trendline. Now NVDA sits right below a key resistance at 192. That’s the line that decides whether this becomes a real reversal or just another lower high inside the downtrend.
Above 192 → the chart opens beautifully.
Below 182 → the bears take back control.
Anything between is noise.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always trade with proper risk management.
NVDA Big Move Loading. TA for Nov. 12–15NVDA at a Critical GEX Compression Zone
NVDA has been moving like a stock caught between two worlds — heavy enough to stay suppressed, but supported enough to avoid a real breakdown. When you zoom out, the candles almost look like they’re waiting for someone to flip a switch.
In reality, NVDA is not being moved by momentum alone — it’s being shaped by something deeper:
gamma exposure (GEX) compression.
And this GEX structure is telling a very clear story about what’s coming next.
4H Chart — Structure Meets Hidden Liquidity
NVDA has been respecting a rising structural band that stretches across early November. Every major reaction — every sweep, every bounce — has happened along this diagonal liquidity path.
This is not random.
It’s where past BOS and CHoCH events have clustered, and it’s also where NVDA’s GEX shifts from defensive to neutral.
Price recently tapped this diagonal trendline again and stabilized right above the 178–180 GEX shelf. The reaction wasn’t explosive — but it was steady. That’s exactly what you see when larger players are quietly absorbing liquidity.
The story here is simple:
NVDA is compressing toward a decision.
1H Chart — Short-Term Drift Toward a Break
On the 1H timeframe, NVDA’s price is drifting inside a narrow pocket between 188–196. Sellers are pressing from above, but bulls are defending from below — and neither side is gaining ground.
This is classic GEX neutral-pocket behavior:
* Low volatility
* Wicks on both ends
* Lack of follow-through
* Clean candles but no conviction
The moment NVDA breaks OUT of this pocket, the move will be far more decisive than anything we’ve seen this week.
GEX Data — The REAL Battlefield
(Refer to screenshot below)
This GEX landscape is incredibly clear and incredibly important.
🔹 Positive GEX cluster at 200–210
This is the heavy CALL/GEX shelf that acts like a magnet AND a ceiling.
When NVDA pushes into this zone, hedging flows stabilize the move, but upside becomes controlled.
This is why the last rally failed at 202–205.
🔹 Neutral GEX zone between 188–196
This is the pocket where NVDA is trading right now.
Neutral pockets compress price and load energy for the next breakout.
This is where NVDA is stuck — for now.
🔹 Negative GEX zone below 185
This is the danger zone.
If NVDA breaks below 185, hedging pressure flips aggressively bearish.
That’s why 185 is your key line in the sand.
🔥 Trading Suggestions Based on Structure + GEX
📌 Bullish Scenario (Higher Probability)
ONLY valid if NVDA holds above 188–190 and breaks above 195.
ENTRY ZONE:
193–195 (1H reclaim)
TARGETS:
* 197.50 (first GEX magnet)
* 202.50 (second GEX shelf)
* 210.00 (major GEX wall / highest positive NET GEX)
STOP-LOSS:
Below 188
(Below this, NVDA re-enters GEX compression = chop)
WHY IT WORKS:
As soon as NVDA clears 195, it enters a staircase of positive GEX levels. These levels act like magnets and guide price toward the CALL walls.
📌 Bearish Breakdown Scenario
ONLY valid if NVDA loses 185 with conviction.
ENTRY:
Break below 184.80
TARGETS:
* 181.00
* 178.90 (big negative GEX shelf)
* 175.00
STOP-LOSS:
Above 188
WHY IT WORKS:
Below 185, NVDA enters a negative GEX zone, where dealer hedging accelerates selling.
🔥 Options Trading Suggestions (GEX-Based)
📌 Bullish Options Play (if NVDA reclaims 195)
Buy:
NVDA 200C or 205C (1–2 weeks out)
Reason:
These levels sit directly in the positive GEX zone, where price often drifts upward in controlled channels.
Safer Play:
195/205 Call Debit Spread
Perfect for GEX-guided upside.
📌 Bearish Options Play (if NVDA breaks 185)
Buy:
NVDA 180P or 175P
Reason:
Once NVDA enters the negative GEX field, volatility expands downward and puts gain value quickly.
Safer Bearish Spread:
185/175 Put Debit Spread
📌 Neutral Play (if price stays stuck 188–196)
This is a premium-decay zone.
Sell Premium Strategy:
* Short Strangle
* Iron Condor
* Credit Spread
Neutral GEX = low volatility = high time decay.
My Thought
NVDA is sitting in one of the cleanest GEX compression structures we’ve seen all month. Price is wedged between a rising liquidity structure and a neutral gamma pocket that’s choking volatility.
This kind of setup usually leads to a single explosive move, not a slow grind.
The roadmap is simple:
* Above 195 → NVDA targets 202–210
* Below 185 → NVDA slides into negative gamma
* Inside 188–196 → chop and premium decay
The next breakout is going to be clean — and GEX is already showing where the path of least resistance lies.
This outlook is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always manage your risk and trade your plan.
NVDA Rebounds From Demand Zone, Eyeing $210 Supply AreaNASDAQ:NVDA has shown a strong rebound from the $177–$180 demand zone, signaling potential bullish momentum after a steep correction. The 1-hour chart shows a shift in structure, with higher lows beginning to form, suggesting renewed buyer interest.
As long as the price holds above $182, the short-term outlook remains constructive. A breakout above $190 could accelerate the move toward the $210–$213 supply zone, where sellers previously regained control.
However, if NVDA fails to maintain above $182, the bullish setup may be invalidated, and price could revisit the $177 support.
🟢 Entry: $186–$188
🔴 Invalidation: Below $177
🎯 Target: $210–$213
NVDANVIDIA is still in an uptrend. Last week, the price hit a new high of $210, but the price was unable to break through this level, so it adjusted down. It is expected that the price will likely test the important support zone at $167-155. If the price cannot break through $155, the price still has a chance to rise.
However, if the price continues to rise in the near future, a correction may also occur.
Long-term trading plan: Wait for the correction to complete before buying.
** This is not financial advice.
🔥Trading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you.
>>GooD Luck 😊
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Ahead of Nvidia’s (NVDA) Earnings: How the Price Could MoveAhead of Nvidia’s (NVDA) Earnings: How the Price Could Move
On Wednesday, after the close of the main US trading session, Nvidia will release its quarterly results — a report seen not merely as another batch of corporate data but as a crucial test for the entire AI-driven bull run.
NVDA shares are up more than 40% since the start of the year, and the company must now prove that this surge is justified and that the AI revolution is still accelerating. According to media reports, Wall Street analysts remain optimistic:
→ Revenue: forecast around $54.9bn, implying roughly 56% year-on-year growth.
→ Earnings per share (EPS): about $1.25 (previous quarter: $1.05).
What should investors focus on?
Of particular importance will be:
→ data on Data Centre revenue, a key indicator of whether the AI boom remains intact;
→ forward guidance, as the market is looking for reassurance that Big Tech will continue to spend heavily on AI.
Technical Analysis of the Nvidia (NVDA) Chart
Recent price action in NVDA points to a sequence that can be interpreted as bearish:
→ 28 October: a strong rally above the psychological $200 level;
→ a failure to hold above that barrier;
→ a pullback on rising volumes (Nasdaq data) with expanding candles in early November.
In the broader market context, it is notable that early November has seen NVDA underperforming major equity indices, signalling firm resistance from sellers around $200.
From a bullish perspective, the decline from the all-time high resembles a correction pattern (shown in red) within a larger uptrend.
However, there is a risk that the market’s high expectations will not be met when the earnings report is published. If that happens, NVDA could extend its decline towards the lower boundary of the rising channel, where support lies near $165.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
nvidia is rangeThe inability of the price to break the 140 area and return to the 91 dollar area can be imagined in three scenarios:
1. The market will suffer in this area until the decision is reached
2. Breaking the 140 area and continuing the upward trend
3. Breaking the $75 support area and trying to reach the $53 area is out of the question at the moment.
$NVDA | The Next Big Leg?NVIDIA has been a textbook case of Smart Money structure this cycle.
✅ Break of Structure (BOS) confirmed
✅ Trendline + MA confluence support at ~$177
✅ Strong premium zone rejection near $195
✅ Fibonacci extension eyeing $231.80
🔑 Levels to Watch:
$177 = Key support (trendline + MA)
$195 = Resistance zone (premium supply)
$231 = Next target if bullish momentum continues
💡 Game Plan:
Above $177 = Long bias toward $195 → $231
Break below $177 = Retrace toward $153 equilibrium
⚡️ Tech + AI flows remain strong; NVDA could be gearing up for another explosive move.
📢 Question to the community:
👉 Do you think NASDAQ:NVDA pushes through $195 straight to $231, or do we retest $153 first?
#NVDA #TradingView #Stocks #Fibonacci #SmartMoneyConcepts #AI #Bullish
Concerns on market specifically NVDA - Not financial adviceSome thoughts and concerns watching the market as an amateur investor looking at historical shifts and trends. This is not a prediction and not to be considered financial advice in any manner shape or form. It is simply a personal opinion based on my impression of the market. Please discuss any choice you make in the market regarding trades with a financial advisor or planner as this opinion is just an uneducated perspective to be taken with a grain of salt from someone who does not work in the financial industry. There are several factors I have taken into account regarding the economy, job losses, looming Debt Wall, real estate market concerns, tariff pain points for US, recession chatter, dollar weakness, US debt and my personal gut check.
Disclosure - I do not currently hold NVDA but I have a standing buy order for my personal account for NVDA at $50. I do not know the market well enough to short.
NVDIA - Earnings Setup for This WeekHello Everyone , Followers,
NVDIA will release its financial reports on Wednesday after market closed. I would like to share my view and follow up level depends on good and bad reports
Bullish Scenario
If earnings beat + guidance strong → next target: 221 - 222
Bearish Scenario
Weak numbers → potential drop to between 173.00 - 176.00
🔹 Key Support Zones
First support: 184.00
Deeper support: 173.00
🔹 Resistance Levels
Main resistance: 199.00 - 200.00
Breakout target: 221 - 222
🔹 Outlook
As long as It stays above 190.00 , momentum remains bullish.
A breakdown below that level could open the door for a deeper pullback. This is depends on Results of financial reports.
🔹 My Plan
I will wait for the financial report before i buy it . With a bearish scenario my buy level is between 176-173 then probably i will hold it for next 5 years.
If it can achive to stay above 190 and if you like to take a risk then you can buy it above this level .
If you enjoy and like clean, simple analysis — follow me for more.
Have a lovelly and Sunny Weekend to all.
Nvidia Is +115% Since April. Here's What Its Chart SaysNvidia NASDAQ:NVDA has gained some 115% since its April low and recently hit an all-time high. Let's see what the chip giant's chart and fundamental analysis can show us ahead of NVDA's fiscal Q3 earnings release next week.
Nvidia's Fundamental Analysis
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang this month traveled to Taiwan to attend the annual sports day held by integrated-circuits maker Taiwan Semiconductor NYSE:TSM , which he called NVDA's "forever partner."
Although Nvidia has deals in place with firms like Intel NASDAQ:INTC , TSM is Nvidia's primary foundry when it comes to manufacturing high-end AI-capable GPUs.
Huang said in public remarks that he asked TSM for additional chip supplies because "the business is very strong and it's growing month by month, stronger and stronger."
I can't wait to see if next week's earnings release tells the same tale.
Nvidia plans to roll out its latest results after the closing bell next Wednesday (Nov. 19).
Wall Street's consensus view calls for the firm to report $1.25 in adjusted earnings per share on roughly $54.8 billion in revenue. That would represent a 54.3% gain from $0.81 in adjusted EPS the same period last year, as well as better than 56% top-line growth from the $35.1 billion that NVDA saw a year earlier.
While many investors would see that as incredible growth, Nvidia's sales have actually been decelerating from almost unheard-of levels in recent years due to the law of large numbers. However, a print like that would be in line with Nvidia's fiscal Q2 result released in August.
Meanwhile, 32 of the 39 sell-side analysts that I know of who cover NVDA have revised their estimates higher since the quarter began, while six have reduced their forecasts. (One estimate has been left unrevised.)
Nvidia's Technical Analysis
Next, let's check out NVDA's year-to-date chart through Monday afternoon:
Readers will see that NVDA this spring blasted out of a cup-with-handle pattern, as denoted by the green box and purple curving line at the chart's left. This is a bullish technical set-up.
The shares then rallied in late summer in an ascending-triangle pattern, marked with a green box and black lines at the chart's right.
That's normally a pattern of bullish continuance, which is exactly what Nvidia saw until the U.S. government shutdown impacted markets as October moved into November.
That said, Nvidia managed to find support at its 50-day Simple Moving Average (or "SMA," marked with a blue line at $183.90 in the chart above). That's where investors would look for professionally managed money to potentially defend the stock.
Conversely, the $212.19 intraday record high that NVDA set on Oct. 29 might serve as the stock's upside pivot.
Looking at Nvidia's secondary technical indicators, the stock's Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the chart's top) appears to have found some support recently at the neutral line and began moving higher again.
Meanwhile, Nvidia's daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or "MACD," marked with black and gold lines and blue bars at the chart's bottom) isn't bullishly postured, at least not yet.
However, the histogram of the stock's 9-day Exponential Moving Average (or "EMA," denoted by blue bars) could be poised to move back into positive territory soon.
And while Nvidia's 12-day EMA (the black line) recently moved below the 26-day EMA (the gold line), the black line seems to be curling upward and might soon re-cross over the gold one. The bulls would be rooting for that.
An Options Option
As I write this, the options market is pricing in a roughly $16 move in Nvidia (or 8%) in relation to next week's earnings.
Option traders who expect Nvidia to rise in response to next week's earnings and who would rather use leverage than lay out to purchase the stock might employ a simple bull-call spread in this situation.
This strategy involves purchasing one call while simultaneously selling a second call at with higher strike price, but the same expiration date. Here's an example:
-- Long one NVDA $200 call with a Nov. 19 expiration date (i.e., after next week's earnings release). The cost is about $7.85 at recent prices.
-- Short one Nov. 19 NVDA $215 call, generating a $2.85 premium.
Net Debit: $5
The trader in this example is risking the $5 net debit, which would represent his or her maximum theoretical loss in the above spread.
But if NVDA rises as the trader in this example expects and both options are exercised, the person would realize $15 of proceeds minus the $5 debit for $10 net profit (the maximum gain).
(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen "Sarge" Guilfoyle was long NVDA and INTC at the time of writing this column.)
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Nvidia Denies $1B Mexico Plan, Eyes Key SupportNvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:NVDA ) came under brief scrutiny on Wednesday after reports suggested a $1 billion investment in a new data center project in Nuevo León, Mexico. The tech giant has since denied any financial involvement, clarifying that its role in Latin America remains limited to collaborative initiatives, research, and talent development, not direct infrastructure spending.
The confusion began when the state’s governor, Samuel García, publicly announced the investment alongside individuals presented as Nvidia representatives. However, later corrections confirmed that the green hydrogen data center would actually be built by CIPRE Holding, utilizing Nvidia’s technology rather than capital.
Despite the miscommunication, the news had little fundamental impact on Nvidia’s long-term growth narrative. The company remains the dominant force in AI semiconductors, with global demand for GPUs powering everything from data centers to generative AI models. However, short-term volatility persists amid global tech supply pressures, tighter U.S.–China chip export controls, and broader market repricing ahead of potential U.S. interest rate cuts in December.
From a technical perspective, NVDA recently hit resistance near the $212 high before retracing. The chart suggests potential for a healthy correction toward the $155 support range, which coincides with a strong accumulation zone from mid-2025. A rebound from this level could fuel a continuation toward $230–$240, resuming Nvidia’s dominant uptrend.
Investors remain focused on upcoming quarterly earnings and the broader market’s reaction to monetary easing expectations. A confirmed rate cut could renew institutional appetite for high-growth tech names, keeping Nvidia positioned as one of the most favored equities in the AI sector.
Buffett says buy when everyone else is selling, right?Long at 188.08. Even if you assume that NVDA and the whole market are correcting, I say so what. There are lots worse places to ride out a market correction than NVDA.
And not for nothing, but I've posted 7 ideas on NVDA here so far. 6 of them were during its 36% drop from Nov '24 to Apr '25. All 12 trades that were part of those ideas paid me. Every. Single. One. The average gain on those 12 trades was nearly 6%. You can make money long while stocks drop. I do it all the time.
Those were also times when people were saying the AI bubble was popping, that AI was over hyped. Michael Burry was shorting NVDA during at least part of that. I don't care. Those kinds of things don't have much to do with day to day stock movements, and what I do has mountains of data behind it that show that kind of thing isn't relevant to what I do.
Going to zero quickly is the big risk to what I'm doing here, and I assure you, if NVDA goes to zero quickly, there will be nowhere to hide. I'll take my chances with the company that takes in $500M a DAY in revenues. This stock's fall is extremely overdone currently, in my opinion, adding to this trade's allure for me.
I will exit here fairly quickly - no need to give back what the market gives me. I'm no HODLer. I take my money and run. If I can do it in one day, so much the better. If I'm forced to hold, tactically adding and selling until I close the position overall will be done according to price action.
As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
I'm betting for a big pullback in NVDANVDA is still strong in the broader sense, but the shorter-term internal strength (momentum, volume) is waning. If it busts above ~$190-195 with volume, it could resume big.
If it doesn’t, beware the risk of a pullback or consolidation.
Choose your option path accordingly.
NVDA is still strong in the broader sense, but the shorter-term internal strength (momentum, volume) is waning. If it busts above ~$190-195 with volume, it could resume big.
If it doesn’t, beware the risk of a pullback or consolidation. Choose your option path accordingly.
NVDA (NVIDIA) – Buy PlanNVDA (NVIDIA) – Buy Plan
📊 Market Sentiment
On October 29, the FED lowered rates by 25bps as expected. However, Powell’s remarks introduced uncertainty around further cuts in December, emphasizing that future policy will depend on incoming data.
One FED member dissented, preferring no cut this cycle — a notable shift from September’s unanimous decision.
Additionally, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change came at 42K versus 32K expected. It’s slightly higher, but since other macro data are missing due to the U.S. government shutdown, the overall sentiment remains mixed.
For now, macro sentiment leans bearish, as rate cuts may be delayed into 2026.
However, with NVDA earnings approaching, we could see a short-term bullish sentiment building around the stock.
📈 Technical Analysis
NVDA is currently trading around the 0.5 equilibrium zone, which aligns with the HTF bullish trendline.
This area could provide temporary support and a potential bounce setup.
However, it’s crucial to watch the SPY structure as it may influence NVDA’s short-term movement.
📌 Game Plan / Expectations
I’ll be watching the $185–$180 range as a key HTF support zone.
This area also aligns with a possible trendline deviation, where price could manipulate below the trendline to trap sellers before reclaiming it.
I plan to buy call options within this range, targeting a continuation of the bullish leg post-earnings.
💬 If this breakdown aligns with your outlook, like and comment below.
For deeper sentiment and strategy insights, subscribe to my Substack — free access available.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before trading or investing.
NVDA Weekly Options SignalNVDA Weekly Options Analysis – 2025-11-12
Current Price: $192.38
Trend: Neutral (Weekly Momentum: Bearish -1.73%)
Confidence: 58% | Conviction: Low
Expiry: 2025-11-14 (2 days)
Recommended Strike: $192.50
Technical Overview:
Price in the middle of weekly range ($178.91–$200.05)
EMA alignment confirms bearish weekly trend
VWAP at $190.89 offers near-term support
Volume spike (26.4x previous week) indicates potential capitulation
Options Flow:
Extremely bullish, PCR 0.42 → heavy call buying
Max volume at $262 call shows institutional positioning
High gamma risk, volatility potential elevated
Trade Setup:
Direction: Buy Calls (Long)
Entry: $2.74
Target 1: $3.70 (+35%)
Target 2: $4.50 (+64%)
Stop Loss: $2.05 (-25%)
Position Size: 2% portfolio (Low conviction)
Summary Insight:
Katy AI shows neutral/bearish signals, but options flow suggests bullish institutional interest
High-risk, low-conviction setup; small position recommended
Mixed technicals and news sentiment → use tight risk management
⚠️ Risk Warning:
Conflicting signals → only small size recommended
Not financial advice; educational commentary for QS Premium members
NVDA to $170? AI Bubble Risk, Big Money Exits & Heavy Shorts !I f you haven`t bought NVDA before the previous earnings:
Now you need to know that NVIDIA has dominated 2023–2025, becoming the face of the global AI boom. But the higher the climb, the harder the fall. While NVDA is still seen as “untouchable,” several major signals suggest the stock could revisit levels near $170 — a healthy correction of 10–15% from here.
1. Major Investors Are Exiting — SoftBank Dumped Everything
SoftBank, one of Nvidia’s earliest and most influential institutional backers, sold its entire stake in late 2025, worth roughly $5.8 billion.
Smart-money exits near all-time highs should never be ignored.
SoftBank rarely sells unless it believes:
- the sector is overheated
- the valuation has run too far
- risk/reward becomes asymmetric
This mirrors their strategy in 2021–2022 when they unloaded overvalued tech before the correction.
SoftBank’s full exit is a red flag for anyone ignoring the possibility of an AI bubble.
2. Michael Burry Bought Massive Puts — A Direct Bet Against the AI Mania
Michael Burry — famous for predicting the 2008 crisis — has quietly increased his put positions on NVIDIA and other AI names.
Why does this matter?
Because Burry doesn’t short “normal” overvaluations.
He shorts bubbles.
His AI thesis:
- expectations are unrealistic
- revenue growth is priced as infinite
- companies are spending billions on AI with no short-term monetization
- chip demand could normalize faster than markets expect
When a contrarian with Burry’s track record bets against a trend, it’s worth paying attention.
3. NVIDIA’s Valuation Is Stretched Even for a Hyper-Growth Company
Even bulls agree: NVDA’s multiples are once again aggressively priced.
Key issues:
• Price-to-Sales historically elevated
NVDA is trading at a P/S ratio that would be insane for any company approaching a $5 trillion market cap.
• Revenue growth expectations assume perfect long-term AI adoption
If AI monetization slows or plateaus even slightly, NVDA’s valuation collapses fast.
4. Are We in an AI Bubble? Many Indicators Say Yes
Top analysts, academics, and even bullish investors admit:
AI has bubble-like behavior.
Evidence of a bubble:
- Stock prices rising faster than actual earnings growth
- Companies buying GPUs “because everyone else is doing it”
- Zero clarity on monetization for many AI firms
- AI startups valued at billions with no revenue
- Media hype similar to 1999 dot-com sentiment
Harvard Business Review, Wired, and Investopedia already discuss the “AI bubble thesis.”
If AI expectations don’t materialize fast enough, NVDA becomes the single most vulnerable stock on the market.
Nvidia Stock Fails to Return to the $200 LevelAlthough Nvidia seemed poised to start the week with an optimistic bias, partly driven by the end of the U.S. government shutdown, which has generated a short-term confidence boost, the stock has begun to show a bearish tone in the current session, posting a decline of more than 2%. This weakness is mainly due to recent comments from the SoftBank Group, which sold its entire stake in Nvidia for approximately US$ 5.8 billion, raising concerns about a possible reduction in exposure to the semiconductor industry in the short term. This event has led to growing investor caution toward the stock and currently maintains a notable selling bias in the market.
Uptrend Tries to Hold
Despite recent downward corrections that have halted the stock’s steady advance, Nvidia has yet to show a decisive bearish move that would end the long-term uptrend line. In the broader picture, buying momentum continues to hold firm. However, if selling pressure continues to strengthen, the uptrend could be at risk, especially if the price falls below the 50-period moving average.
RSI
The RSI indicator line is gradually approaching the neutral level of 50, suggesting a balance between buying and selling forces over the last 14 trading sessions. As long as this equilibrium remains, the stock is likely to continue showing indecisive movements in the coming days.
TRIX
The TRIX indicator remains above the neutral level of 0, indicating that in the long-term outlook, bullish strength continues to dominate the average of exponential moving averages. As long as the TRIX stays above this level, the bullish bias may remain intact, allowing the uptrend line to continue defending its position over the coming weeks.
Key Levels to Watch:
208 USD – Major Resistance: Corresponds to the area of recent highs. Price movements breaking above this level could trigger stronger buying pressure, reinforcing the current uptrend.
200 USD – Nearby Resistance: A key psychological level. Price action above this zone would reactivate a short-term bullish bias and reduce the risk of a trendline breakdown.
184 USD – Key Support: This is the most relevant support area, coinciding with the 50-period moving average and the Ichimoku cloud, which increases its significance. Downward movements reaching this zone could end the long-term bullish structure and lead to a period of indecision or the formation of a short-term consolidation range.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
Nvda- Er this week I believe it has more in the tank!!Nvda smashes ER were going to see a massive inpulse! I don't see in heavy volume selling on the daily.. I think this one will be the last big pop we see before a major correction.. All other hyperscalers have performed and had major gaps on er.. Nvda is next bookmark this!!
Elliott Waves Don’t Lie: NVDA’s Path to $26,000Summary: “Elliott Waves, Fibonacci, and Smart Money align perfectly — NVIDIA’s long-term chart points to an AI-powered Supercycle with massive upside." 💎📊
🚀 NVDA | The Supercycle of the AI Era! 💚
🌀 Elliott Wave Supercycle Breakdown
NVIDIA’s price action over the past two decades is a textbook example of a multi-decade Elliott Wave Supercycle — where technical , fundamentals , and Smart Money flows perfectly align to form a once-in-a-generation structure 🌎
Let’s break it down step-by-step 👇
Super Cycle Wave (1) — launched in the early 2000s, marking NVDA’s first growth phase during the birth of consumer GPUs 🎮.
Super Cycle Wave (2) — deep correction into 2002, retracing a 0.786 Fibonacci, cleansing early euphoria and creating the foundation for institutional accumulation 💼.
Then began the Super Cycle Wave (3) — the most powerful phase of all. Within it, we have distinct macro sub-waves:
1️⃣ Macro Wave (1) — ended in 2007 , aligning with the first institutional wave of adoption.
2️⃣ Macro Wave (2) — retraced 0.618 in 2008 , coinciding with the global financial crisis (perfect Smart Money shakeout).
3️⃣ Macro Wave (3) — the current dominant leg, fueled by exponential AI and data center growth . It’s extending toward the 3.618 Fibonacci extension (~$256) , confirming wave strength and institutional conviction.
4️⃣ Macro Wave (4) — expected between 2026–2027, likely retracing 0.236–0.382, a natural cooling period before the next breakout.
5️⃣ Macro Wave (5) — projected to rally toward 4.618 extension (~$2,500) , completing Super Cycle Wave (3) near 2029 🏁
From there, a larger Super Cycle Wave (4) correction could unfold before the final parabolic Super Cycle Wave (5) run to the 5.618 Fibonacci extension (~$26,000) — the climax of NVDA’s decades-long AI expansion super-trend 🌕
💰 Smart Money Concept (SMC) Perspective
The chart structure clearly shows Smart Money accumulation patterns in every correction phase:
Re-accumulation ranges appeared at every 0.618 retracement level 📊
Liquidity grabs below previous swing lows before strong impulsive moves ⚡
Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) filled during corrections, creating perfect liquidity imbalances that institutional players exploit
Currently, NVDA trades near a premium zone of Macro Wave (3), but Smart Money will likely reaccumulate during the upcoming Macro Wave (4) discount phase (2026–2027).
Expect Order Block re-tests and liquidity sweeps around discounted Fibonacci retracement zones (0.236–0.382) before the next major rally 📉➡️📈
📈 Price Action Structure
NVDA’s macro structure remains strongly bullish:
The multi-decade trend has respected every higher high and higher low sequence since 2008.
Each impulse is followed by a healthy re-accumulation range, never breaking long-term structure.
Expect distribution near the $250–$300 (split-adjusted) region as Wave (3) matures, followed by a macro correction that offers generational entries for long-term investors 🧠
🔢 Fibonacci Confluence & Technical Harmony
Fibonacci has been the invisible hand guiding NVDA’s growth 👇
0.786 retracement (2002) → deep liquidity reset
0.618 retracement (2008) → institutional re-entry
3.618 extension (256) → current macro resistance target
4.618 extension (2500) → Super Cycle Wave (3) final target
5.618 extension (26K) → ultimate Super Cycle Wave (5) projection
Each impulse and retracement aligns perfectly with Fibonacci’s geometric rhythm , proving the power of confluence between time, price, and sentiment.
🧠 Fundamentals — The Energy Behind the Waves
Behind the technicals lies unmatched fundamental growth :
💾 AI & Data Centers: NVIDIA is the core infrastructure for modern AI compute and cloud training workloads.
🧩 CUDA Ecosystem: A software moat that ties developers and enterprises directly to NVIDIA’s architecture.
🌐 Omniverse & Robotics: Positioning NVDA as a leader in 3D simulation, robotics, and digital twins — future trillion-dollar markets.
⚙️ Strategic Partnerships: Expanding across hyperscalers, automotives, and enterprise AI.
Each innovation wave fuels a new Elliott Wave impulse , with the AI revolution now driving the strongest macro leg in NVDA’s history.
⚡ Macro Outlook & Timeline
✅ Now (2025): Completing Macro Wave (3) of Super Cycle (3) → heading toward $256 target
⚠️ 2026–2027: Macro Wave (4) correction to 0.236–0.382 (Smart Money entry)
🚀 2028–2029: Macro Wave (5) push → Super Cycle (3) peak near $2,500
🌊 2030–2032: Super Cycle (4) correction — consolidation phase
💎 2035–2040+: Super Cycle (5) → ultimate 5.618 target near $26K
💬 Final Thoughts
"Every correction is a setup for the next expansion. Smart Money buys fear — not euphoria."
NVIDIA is the heartbeat of the AI revolution , the core of data-driven computing , and a living Fibonacci sequence in motion.
As long as fundamentals stay aligned with the wave rhythm, NVDA’s Supercycle will continue to redefine what’s possible in long-term growth. 🌌
#NVDA #ElliottWaveAnalysis #SmartMoneyConcept #PriceActionTrading #FibonacciMagic #AIRevolution #StockMarket #Investing #TradingViewCommunity #TechSupercycle #NVDAtoTheMoon #LongTermInvesting
💬 Traders, analysts, and wave watchers — your insights matter!
Have you spotted NVDA’s next move? Drop your Elliott Wave counts, confirmations, or constructive critiques below 👇 Let’s discuss NVIDIA’s structural evolution, AI-driven Supercycle, and long-term growth potential together 🚀💚
Every comment adds perspective — let’s decode this massive wave as a community! 🌊📈
— Team FIBCOS ⚡💎
NVIDIA Technical Breakdown – November 2025Structure : Price broke out of a descending channel, retested the breakout zone, and is now hovering near a double top resistance.
Fibonacci Confluence: Price is reacting near the 50–61.8% retracement zone, a key decision area for continuation or rejection.
Liquidity Grab: A red-marked zone below shows where stop-losses were likely triggered before reversal — classic accumulation behavior.
Volume & RSI: Volume faded post-breakout, and RSI shows early signs of divergence — momentum is slowing, but not yet reversing.
Scenario Planning:
Bullish: Break and hold above double top zone with volume → target $206–$214.
Bearish: Rejection + RSI divergence → pullback to $183–$178 support.
Watching for confirmation above the double top zone. Liquidity grab + fib confluence suggest potential continuation, but momentum needs to align.
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