BUY trade ideas
HUGE BUYING opportunity on Best Buy (BBY) for a move up to $150
We've just opened a LONG position on $BBY using 5.38% of our equity.
Fundamental Analysis
Best Buy's (NYSE:BBY) latest earnings report delivered better-than-expected results and signaled that the company’s business remains remarkably strong across all segments. It was expected to spark investors’ interest considering the fact that we usually see an increased demand for the retail stocks heading into the holiday season. Sales trends beat expectations again thanks to strong demand in both the online and in-store channels. What’s even more important is that the profitability of the company increased again despite the rising supply chain costs that the senior management has had to battle with. Both, the company’s CEO – Corie Barry and Best Buy’s CFO – Matt Bilunas confirmed for a 3rd consecutive time this year their positive outlook for the huge growth opportunities ahead for the business.
So you might be wondering - “Well, if the earnings report was so great, why has the stock sold off so dramatically?”. The thing is, it’s normal to be confused as in reality it does not make any sense for the average person. However, as trained market professionals we have the ability to dig deeper and apply a multi-varied analysis to a situation like that in order to find out what is really going on and if the selloff like that is not actually an opportunity in disguise.
What tends to happen very often on Wall Street is – when a certain company continues to deliver better-than expected results and raises its guidance quarter after quarter, then this reaches to a point when analysts, investors, journalists, fund managers etc. become overly bullish on the stock and start placing unrealistic expectations for the future growth of the company. It’s all sunshine and rainbows until these expectations become completely detached by what’s actually possible to be accomplished by the company. At one point the positioning in the stock simply becomes heavily one-sided, and a seemingly good earnings report and/or announcement by the company can become the trigger for a massive selloff in the stock, just because it was not "good enough", even though the business is solid, the stock is attractive and the future for the company is bright. That’s exactly what we are seeing happening right now with Best Buy’s stock BBY. Following management's delivery of the report on Nov. 23, Best Buy share prices slumped immediately by more than 10% due to traders' unjustified fears that the boom times are ending for the retailer.
Even if conditions for the retailer are going to shift, however, that's not likely to derail Best Buy's ability to deliver strong returns.
The recent post-Q3 earnings selloff is heavily overdone and investors are unjustly punishing the stock.
The business is strong. Revenues are increasing. The earnings continue to grow. The Senior Management has been outstanding in capturing the surge in online shopping and establishing a leading position in the sector. New services with a relatively high profit margin like the Best Buy Total Tech Support powered by Geek Squad are offering a unique solution to the tens of millions of people who prefer to work from home, thus opening a whole new subscription based revenue stream for the company, which is definitely going to drive the company growth for the years to come!
Technical Analysis
From a technical standpoint, the stock managed to break out of its 18-month sideways channel on the daily chart in early November, 2021 as a result of the great business prospects for the company and it’s strong financial performance. After breaking above the strong horizontal resistance line lying at the $121.49 level (black horizontal line), the price rallied all the way up to the $142 mark, thus setting a new all-time high and also recording a remarkable 40% rally in less than 4 weeks. The optimism in the stock reached its peak level right before the company announced its Q3 Earnings report, as it seemed that investors already knew that the stock has substantially overextended to the upside and that a correction was imminent. We saw a reversal daily candle (shooting star) on Nov. 22Nd, which confirmed the shift in the market sentiment. The crash that followed was mainly driven by one-sided positioning and over speculation by market participants. The current corrective movement has brought the stock back down at the lower end of its prior multi-month sideways channel and we expect buyers to start coming back into the stock at these levels. All three key market indicators that we use RSI, Bollinger Bands and the Stochastic oscillator are showing that the price is extremely oversold and that a normalization of price action is imminent.
Our analysis shows that the stock will return back to its all-time highs of around $140 in the next 2-4 months and will potentially push higher towards the $150-175 region. This presents a tremendous opportunity for generating more than a 30% return on our investment in the company.
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Potential Long Entry For Best BuyBBY recently broke out of a long standing channel into this most recent earnings report, after which it experienced a significant price drop. However, this drop was still not enough to push price outside of its pitchfork channel, validating support and leaving a huge gap to fill. Paired with an RSI bottom on the 1D chart, this be an excellent setup for a long position.
BBY Fib Retracement and Prediction BBY had a heavy drop for earnings on Tuesday. I was lucky enough to have grabbed some lotto puts before close and ended up making 600%. After that, I added $125 calls 12/17 around the $117.50 area at 1.95 once I saw a reversal confirmation and that it was bouncing off the 200ma on the daily. What I expect to happen tomorrow is BBY to push up to the 124.38 area and then go back down from there. If I see it resisting at the fib, I will sell my calls for profit and switch to puts. If it is able to break 124.38 and the mental barrier of 125, I will continue riding my calls until I see a reason to exit.
Best Buy Cup & HandleBest Buy is setting up a cup and handle pattern as we close out October.
Displayed in the chart the same setup happened last year from end of November through January and bounced off the 50 day EMA early February. Price consolidated, broke down over a 22 day span then bounced up for a 12% increase after forming the handle.
The same exact setup is forming in the chart again this year accept a little earlier from August through October. Watch price over the next 3 weeks, or 21 days to retreat to the neckline and bounce off the 200 day EMA around the beginning of December shortly after earnings for another 12% increase after breaking above neckline. BBY has reported positive earnings 4 out of the last 5 Qtrs.
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`Happy Trading
Best Buy may be heading down near-termBased on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on August 9, 2021 with a closing price of 112.54.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 111.3 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 4.2515% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 8.478% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 15.7105% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 35 trading bars after the signal. A 1% decline must occur over the next 35 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 3.0 trading bars; half occur within 13.0 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 25.5 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
At the time of this publishing, the stock has already reached the top of the small red box and may be in the early stages of the short-term forecasted decline.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
BBY - PT 142Have an obvious C&H pattern here and as long as we can hold above the neckline of 121, the implied price target for this setup is 142. If we get a break down below the neckline and a push below the handle (swing low), this pattenr will be invalid. Good risk/reward here with the right stop loss. GL
BBY Bestbuy Trades to watch for this week #1I am going to post about 5 trades or more to watch for every week.
Rules are simple.
Step 1-Watch price action wait for it to respect the trendline...Preferably the bottom trend line.
Step 2-When price stops, bounces, wicks back up over the trend line. That would be your first sign to get in.
Step 3-If you are more patient or skeptical, wait for price to move away from the trendline and then come back to it. When it repeats the Step 2, that's your trigger to get in.
Step 4-Make sure you have at least 30 days on whatever option you are picking.
Step 5- Try to pick a strike price that is at least the last previous High or the top of the candle after a gap down. (AkA in the money or slightly out of the money no more than that.)
if you have any questions please feel free to comment below on whatever it is and I will be sure to answer. If you aren't asking questions you aren't learning.
by iCantw84it
05.24.2021