Bulllish bounce off?EUR/CAD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.5897
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.58444
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.60623
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
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Trade ideas
EURCAD What Next? BUY!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for EURCAD is below:
The market is trading on 1.5784 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 1.5907
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Idea on a chart Patience.
EUR CAD we have a great set up on H4 time frame fib 78.6 zone for a sell patience.
The Dollar trims losses on Monday but remains far from last week's highs near 100.00.
The Greenback lost 1.6% on Friday as the US Nonfarm Payroll report revealed that job creation has been much lower than previously thought.
Friday's employment figures boosted hopes of immediate Fed cuts and undermined speculative demand for the USD.
The US Dollar is trimming some losses on Monday, as the market assimilates Fridayโs downbeat employment figures, but remains capped below 98.50, well below last weekโs highs near the 100.00 psychological levels.
BUY EURCAD 4.8.2025Confluence order: BUY at M15
Type of order: Limit order
Reason:
- The current top is not touching anything, expected to rise to the sub-key of H1 above.
Note:
- Management of money carefully at the last bottom (1,59310)
Set up entry:
- Entry buy at 1,59090
- SL at 1,58910
- TP1: 1,59310 (~1R)
- TP2: 1,59824 (~4R)
- TP3: 1,60200 (~6R)
Trading Method: Price action (No indicator, only trend and candles)
EURCAD 1H longEURCAD 1 H made a beatiful sharp drop, now stalling arround some good support levels.
When such a drop happens with no pullback formed yet I'm happy to buy the way down.
Because the pullback has to come soon buyers step in at the support levels.
My plan is simple I open a manual grid at the support levels I draw and aim for a 2R profit
Current grid 3 levels
1 market order
2 buy limits
Tp 2R
extra confirmation RSI is oversold
EUR/CAD: Shorting the Climactic Rally Near 1.6000The strong rally in EUR/CAD has pushed the pair into extreme territory, approaching a major psychological and structural resistance zone. While momentum has been strong, this looks like a potential climactic or "blow-off" top, offering a highly favorable risk/reward opportunity to short the pair in alignment with the weak underlying Euro fundamentals.
The Fundamental Why ๐ฐ
The core thesis remains bearish for the Euro. The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a distinctly dovish tone, signaling a willingness to ease policy further to support a slowing Eurozone economy. This fundamental headwind suggests that extreme rallies in Euro pairs are often exhaustive and present prime shorting opportunities.
The Technical Picture ๐
Major Supply Zone: The price is entering a critical multi-month supply zone between 1.5950 and the key psychological level of 1.6000. This is a major ceiling where significant selling pressure is anticipated.
Fibonacci Extension: This area aligns with a key Fibonacci extension level (1.272) from the last major impulse wave, a common zone where trending moves become exhausted and reversals begin.
Pronounced RSI Divergence: A clear bearish divergence is forming on the daily chart. As price makes this final push to a new high, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is making a significantly lower high, signaling a deep exhaustion of buying momentum.
The Counter-Trade Rationale ๐ง
This is a high-level fade. We are positioning for a reversal at a major, technically significant ceiling. The extreme price extension, combined with clear momentum divergence, indicates that the risk of buying at these highs is substantial. By shorting here, we are betting that the powerful technical resistance and weak fundamentals will trigger a significant correction.
The Setup โ
๐ Pair: EUR/CAD
๐ Direction: Short
โ๏ธ Stop Loss: 1.63230
๐ฏ Entry: 1.59490
โ
Take Profit: 1.52008
โ๏ธ Risk/Reward: โ 2:1
EURCAD is BearishPrice was in a strong uptrend, however now it seems that bulls are exhausted, the notion is further validated by a double top reversal pattern with bearish divergence. If previous higher low is broken with good volume, then we can expect a bearish reversal as per Dow theory. Targets are mentioned on the chart.
EUR/CAD Tests Resistance โ Bullish Breakout in Sight?EUR/CAD appears to be showing bullish momentum and is likely heading toward the 1.6110 level. Currently, the pair is testing a key resistance zone. If the price manages to break above this resistance with strong volume or confirmation, we could see further upside continuation toward the next target at 1.6110. Traders should watch for a clear breakout and possible retest of the broken level turning into support, which could provide a good entry point for long positions.
EURCAD LONG SETUP H4: 28 JULY - 1 AUGUST 2025โ
EUR/CAD Trade Plan (4H Timeframe)
๐ Bias: Bullish
๐ง Why Buy EUR/CAD?
Reason Details
๐ COT Data
Institutions are 66.9% long EUR and 80.19% short CAD
๐ฅ Retail Sentiment
87% of retail traders are short (contrarian signal = bullish)
๐ Technical Setup
Breakout + retest of descending trendline and resistance = bullish continuation setup
๐ Technical Analysis Summary
โ
Trend & Price Action
The pair broke out of a descending trendline, indicating a shift from a short-term downtrend to a potential uptrend.
๐ Key Levels
1. Resistance / Take Profit (TP) Target Zone:
Around 1.61500 โ 1.62000
Marked in red as the TP TARGET, this is a supply zone.
The market may face selling pressure at this point.
2. Current Price Levels:
Price is trading around 1.6088, slightly below the local resistance at 1.6108.
3. Support / Buy Zone:
Between 1.60701 โ 1.60884
This zone has previously acted as resistance and may now serve as support, aligning with the breakout retest.
4. Lower Support Levels:
1.59218 and 1.58883 are marked as potential deeper support if the breakout fails.
๐ Indicators and Patterns
Trendline Breakout: The descending black trendline has been broken, suggesting bullish momentum.
Pivot Levels (R1, R2, S1, etc.) are overlaid, providing additional confirmation of key support/resistance zones.
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๐ Trading Plan (as per the chart)
Bullish Bias: The breakout and retest imply a long entry from the BUY ZONE (1.607 โ 1.6088).
TP Target: Around 1.615 โ 1.620
Invalidation Level: A break below 1.6070, or especially below 1.5921, may invalidate the setup and turn bias bearish.
๐ COT Data Analysis
EUR (Euro):
Long Positions: 66.9%
Short Positions: 33.1%
ฮ Weekly: -1.11% (net longs reduced slightly)
๐ Interpretation:
Institutions are still heavily long on the Euro, showing confidence in its strength.
However, there's a slight weekly decrease, possibly a bit of profit-taking or caution ahead of upcoming data.
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CAD (Canadian Dollar):
Long Positions: 19.81%
Short Positions: 80.19%
ฮ Weekly: +1.22% (shorts increased further)
๐ Interpretation:
Institutions are extremely bearish on the Canadian Dollar.
The increase in short positions shows growing conviction that CAD will weaken.
๐งฎ Institutional Bias:
Bullish on EUR/CAD: Institutions are net long EUR and net short CAD, meaning they expect EUR/CAD to rise.
---
๐ฅ Retail Sentiment (EUR/CAD):
Long: 13%
Short: 87%
๐ Interpretation:
Retail traders are massively short on EUR/CAD.
This is a contrarian signal: retail traders are often on the wrong side of the market.
Smart money likely sees upside if retail is heavily short.
๐ Conclusion
All signals โ COT, retail sentiment, and technical structure โ point toward a bullish EUR/CAD outlook.
Institutions are buying EUR and shorting CAD, while retail traders are mostly short, potentially fueling a short squeeze if price rallies. Technically, the breakout and retest also support a bullish trade idea.






















