Trade ideas
CADJPY: Important Bullish OutlookCADJPY is consolidating throughout the previous trading day, following a test of a significant daily support level.
The recent bullish momentum pushed the price up, and a breach above a minor resistance level within the prevailing sideways pattern may trigger a bullish reversal.
Further upward price movement is anticipated. The subsequent resistance level is projected at 107.66.
CADJPY Technical & Order Flow AnalysisOur analysis is based on a multi-timeframe top-down approach and fundamental analysis.
Based on our assessment, the price is expected to return to the monthly level.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis may change at any time without notice and is solely intended to assist traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no obligation to act on it, nor should you.
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CADJPY: Bullish Move After Liquidity Sweep 🇨🇦🇯🇵
It looks like we have a confirmed bear trap after a test
of a key intraday horizonta support on CADJPY.
A formation of a bullish imbalance candle indicates
a strong bullish sentiment now.
I expect a bullish move to 107.58
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Short Trade
📘 Trade Journal Entry – CAD/JPY
Pair: CAD/JPY
Timeframe: 1 Hour
Session Context: New York PM
🔻 Trade Setup
Type: Sell-side
Date: Wed 3rd Sept 25
Session: NY PM, 12:00 pm
Entry: 107.325
Stop Loss: 107.397 (0.31%)
Take Profit: 106.995 (0.07%)
Risk per Trade: 1.0%
R:R Ratio: 4.88
🔑 Observations
Trade executed after strong liquidity sweep above prior highs during London → NY transition.
Stop placed above intraday OB rejection, keeping risk defined.
Profit target aligns with PDL liquidity zone around 106.99.
Market structure shows shift after distribution phase; volume spike validates sell-side intent.
RR close to 5:1 makes this a high-probability setup if bearish continuation plays out.
5min TF overview
CAD/JPY – Technical & Fundamental AnalysisCAD/JPY – Technical & Fundamental Analysis
Fundamentals:
Canada: Q2 GDP contracted more than expected at –1.6% annualized, raising speculation that the Bank of Canada (BoC) may cut interest rates in the near term. While domestic demand showed resilience, external weakness weighed heavily on growth.
Japan: Japan’s Finance Minister recently expressed concern over speculative yen weakness. However, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) signaled tolerance of the depreciation for now, suggesting a softer stance on direct stabilization measures.
Technicals:
Price recently broke above a minor resistance. After such breakouts, institutions often create a false sense of security for retail traders by keeping price above resistance.
Once enough long positions and stop-loss orders build up, price often dips back below the broken level to trigger a liquidity hunt (stop-loss grab). If the bullish market structure holds, price typically reclaims the broken level and continues higher.
Trade Setup (4H Chart):
Entry (Buy Stop): 107.350
Stop Loss (SL): 106.890
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 108.310 → Risk:Reward ≈ 1:2
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 108.960 → Risk:Reward ≈ 1:3
Outlook:
The setup favors a bullish continuation if price successfully reclaims the liquidity zone after the stop-loss hunt. Traders should watch closely for confirmation around the reclaimed level before scaling positions.
📌 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always wait for proper confirmation before executing trades. Manage your risk wisely and trade what you see—not what you feel.
CADJPY (1H) - Swing Trading PlanThis trading plan outlines a swing trade opportunity on the CAD/JPY 1-hour chart, leveraging Smart Money Concepts to identify optimal entry points for a pending long position.
Market Structure Analysis:
The CADJPY pair has recently shown a strong upward trend, indicating a bullish bias. I observe a clear break of structure (BOS) to the upside, confirming the continuation of the bullish momentum. The market is currently undergoing a retracement, presenting an opportunity to enter at a discounted price within the overall bullish trend.
Key Entry Zones (Smart Money Concepts):
- HTF Order Block (Demand Zone): A significant Higher Time Frame (HTF) Order Block is identified around the 106.900 area. This zone represents an area where institutional buying occurred, making it a high-probability reversal point.
- Fair Value Gap (FVG): There is a Fair Value Gap (FVG) present just above the HTF Order Block, aligning with our potential entry zone. FVGs indicate an imbalance in the market, often attracting price back to fill the gap.
- 50% Discount (Equilibrium): The 50% retracement of the recent price swing (often referred to as equilibrium) aligns closely with the identified HTF Order Block and FVG, adding confluence to our entry area, signifying a discounted price.
CADJPY - Expecting Bullish Continuation In The Short TermH1 - Strong bullish momentum.
No opposite signs.
Until the two Fibonacci support zones hold I expect the price to move higher further.
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Potential CADJPY downside
🚨 Potential Forex trade: CADJPY short 🚨
TA:
The weekly chart is forming lower swing highs
The daily has broken diagonal support and is testing the area as resistance
FA:
The BOC's rate cutting may continue. Unemployment remains high and is continuing to rise, while GDP growth is low.
The yen may strengthen if stock markets continue to fall, or if the bond yield crisis continues, due to its safe-haven status.
I'm looking for confirmation on lower time-frames.
Lingrid | CADJPY Potential Short at the Confluence ZoneFX:CADJPY has recently rebounded from the support zone near 106.00 and surged back toward the resistance structure. The chart shows a breakout from a triangle pattern that shifted momentum upward, but the confluence of trendline and channel border signals a possible rejection at resistance. As long as price remains capped below 108.30–108.50, downside retracement risk increases. A rejection here could send the pair back toward the 107.00 support area, aligning with the broader consolidation phase.
📉 Key Levels:
Sell trigger: Rejection at 108.30 resistance zone
Sell zone: 108.20–108.50 region
Target: 107.05 support
Invalidation: Break and close above 108.95
💡 Risks:
Unexpected strength in CAD fundamentals could fuel a bullish breakout.
JPY weakness from BOJ policy stance could limit downside.
Broader risk-on sentiment in global markets may push price higher despite technical rejection.
If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!
Bullish bounce?CAD/JPY is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 107.20
1st Support: 106.66
1st Resistance: 108.24
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
CAD/JPY – 4H ChartRecently, the pair has shown weak bearish movements, forming a descending wedge pattern, with prices now approaching a potential breakout to the upside.
The pair has rebounded from the key support zone around 106.00, and considering that prices are trading within a broader upward trend, the bullish outlook remains valid.
A confirmed breakout above the wedge, supported by a clear breach of 107.20, would strengthen expectations of further upside momentum.
Therefore, the outlook remains bullish as long as the pair holds above 105.30, targeting 108.05 followed by 109.70.
CADJPY SHORT Market structure bearish on HTFs DW
Entry at both Weekly and Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Weekly EMA Retest
Previous Weekly Structure Point
Daily Rejection at AOi
Daily EMA retest
Previous Structure point Daily
Round Psych Level 107.000
H4 EMA retest
H4 Candlestick rejection
Levels 3
Entry 100%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
CAD/JPY BEARISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| SHORT
Hello, Friends!
CAD/JPY is trending down which is clear from the red colour of the previous weekly candle. However, the price has locally surged into the overbought territory. Which can be told from its proximity to the BB upper band. Which presents a great trend following opportunity for a short trade from the resistance line above towards the demand level of 105.850.
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CADJPY Will Go Higher From Support! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for CADJPY.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 106.995.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 108.913 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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The Two Pillars That Changed My TradingAfter years of trial and error, I shifted my focus from searching for signals to building a foundation. For me, that foundation rests on two pillars:
Pillar 1: Risk Management
Risk per trade: Fixed % of account. Currently, mine is 0.5%
Minimum Risk/Reward: 1:2. I try as much as possible to make this minimum a rare occasion; I try to aim for higher, but it all depends on other factors of the setup.
Position sizing: Calculated precisely before every entry. I base it on three factors: the current account balance, risk per trade, SL distance.
Pillar 2: The Trading Plan
A written, unambiguous set of rules for every action.
Based on price action and market structure.
Designed to be followed without emotion or deviation.
These pillars work together. The plan gives me confidence, and the risk management gives me the longevity to be wrong. This mindset shift made all the difference. I document my journey applying these principles in detail elsewhere.
What's one rule in your trading plan you won't break?






















