CAD/JPY SELLERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
CAD/JPY pair is in the uptrend because previous week’s candle is green, while the price is clearly rising on the 1D timeframe. And after the retest of the resistance line above I believe we will see a move down towards the target below at 108.605 because the pair overbought due to its proximity to the upper BB band and a bearish correction is likely.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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CADJPY: Trade Plan Pullback Setup Targeting External Range HighsTaking a closer look at CAD/JPY, the pair continues to hold a bullish trend structure, with higher-timeframe price action breaking to the upside 📈. When we look left on both the daily and weekly charts, we can clearly see two external liquidity targets — the external range highs, which remain the logical draw on price 🎯.
At this stage, I’m anticipating a retracement on the 30-minute timeframe. If price pulls back into discount and we then see a bullish market structure break, I’ll be looking for a long setup from that point 🚀.
Stop-loss placement is discussed in detail in the video.
Not financial advice. ⚠️
Bullish momentum to extend?CAD/JPY is declining toward the pivot level, which has been identified as a pullback support. A rebound from this area could target the first resistance level, aligning with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Pivot: 109.24
1st Support: 108.8
1st Resistance: 111.03
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CADJPY Downtrend Continuation - WavesOfSuccess MethodologyTrade Execution:
Wednesday, 11th November 2025 @ 09:35 GMT
Entry triggered after price closed below the Momentum Low bar at 110.01, confirming downtrend continuation.
Trade Management:
Entry: 110.01
Stop Loss (Invalidation): 110.08
Risk: -8.6 pips
Target: 109.73 (Fibonacci 76.4% retracement to -23.6% extension)
Risk: Reward Ratio: 3.06:1 (Risking 8.6 pips to capture 26.1 pips)
Result:
Target achieved at 13:28 GMT after New York session open. ✅
The Psychological Edge - How to Behave While in Trade
This is MORE important than technical analysis. Master these five fundamental truths:
1️⃣ Anything can happen in the market
2️⃣ Every moment is unique
3️⃣ An edge is just an indication of higher probability
4️⃣ There will be random distribution between wins and losses
5️⃣ I don't need to know what happens next
The key: Follow your mechanical rules, manage your risk, and let probability work in your favour over time.
This is mechanical trading. This is the WavesOfSuccess methodology.
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CADJPY: Bearish Continuation is Expected! Here is Why:
Our strategy, polished by years of trial and error has helped us identify what seems to be a great trading opportunity and we are here to share it with you as the time is ripe for us to sell CADJPY.
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CAD/JPY at Key Weighted Support – Is the Next Wave Up?💹 CAD/JPY – Bullish Layer Trap Setup | Weighted Power Play! 💥
Asset: CAD/JPY (Canadian Dollar vs Japanese Yen)
Market Type: Forex Market Profit Pathway Setup (Swing / Day Trade)
🎯 Plan: The Bullish Thief’s Weighted Move
The bullish plan is confirmed after a Weighted Moving Average (WMA) pullback — a classic thief-style momentum catch! 😎
We’re stalking the zone where price respects the WMA curve and bounces higher, hinting a continuation to the upside.
💡 Why Weighted MA?
Because it gives sharper precision and reacts faster to price volatility, giving us the edge in timing our entries before the crowd jumps in.
💰 Entry Zone (Layer Strategy Style)
The Thief Strategy uses a layered limit order entry method — stacking multiple buys to average a prime position during pullbacks:
Buy Limit Layers: 108.000 | 108.200 | 108.400 | 108.600
(You can adjust or add more layers based on your risk appetite)
🛡️ Stop-Loss: @ 107.700 (Thief SL Zone)
📈 Target Zone: @ 110.200 – 110.500
🧠 Trade Logic & Insight
🔹 Why Bullish?
The recent momentum shows buyers defending key structural lows near 108.000.
Weighted MA crossover supports bullish momentum continuation, backed by strong CAD fundamentals and stable oil prices (CAD often correlates positively with crude).
🌐 Correlated Pairs to Watch
💵 USD/JPY: Similar JPY-side weakness can confirm CAD/JPY upside.
💰 CAD/CHF: Often mirrors CAD strength in risk-on sentiment.
🛢️ XTI/USD (WTI Crude Oil): Rising oil prices can fuel CAD gains, providing extra confirmation for bullish CAD/JPY bias.
⚠️ Notes from the Thief OG’s Desk
Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OGs) — this setup is my personal style of entry planning.
Not a recommendation. You’re the driver — your profit, your risk, your rulebook! 📜
Police barricade near 110.500 is a trap zone — act smart, escape with profits before the correction hits.
Always manage risk wisely and use your judgment — that’s the real thief’s code! 🕶️
✨ If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!
⚖️ Disclaimer
This is a Thief-style trading strategy shared just for fun and educational purposes.
Not financial advice — trade responsibly and always do your own analysis.
🔖 #CADJPY #Forex #SwingTrade #DayTrade #ThiefStrategy #TechnicalAnalysis #FX #WMA #WeightedMovingAverage #CAD #JPY #ForexSetup #RiskManagement #TradingCommunity #TrendTrader
CADJPY Massive Short! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the CADJPY next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 109.12
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 108.83
My Stop Loss - 109.30
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
CADJPY LONG ΩMarket structure bullish on HTFs 3
Entry at both Weekly and Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Daily Rejection at AOi
Previous Daily Structure Point
Around Psychological Level 109.500
Touching EMA H4
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
TP: WHO KNOWS!
Entry 105%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
CADJPY November 2025 fundamental analysisCanadian Dollar (CAD): Economic Headwinds and Continued Easing
Bank of Canada Policy
The Bank of Canada delivered another 25 basis point rate cut at its October 29 meeting, bringing the policy rate to 2.25%. This continues an aggressive easing cycle that has seen rates reduced by 225 basis points since June 2024, from a peak of 4.50% to the current 2.75%. Markets are pricing in current easing for the October meeting despite recent data showing 60,000 employment gains and headline inflation rising to 2.4%.
Economic Challenges
The BoC's dovish stance is driven by persistent concerns about the Canadian economic outlook. The third-quarter Business Outlook Survey showed that uncertainty around trade policy continues to weigh heavily on investment and hiring plans. The "future sales" indicator dropped back into negative territory for the first time in 2025, and 63% of firms expect either unchanged or reduced workforce levels—levels historically associated with unemployment rates of 7.3% or higher.
Canada's terms of trade have deteriorated significantly, with crude oil prices falling to multi-month lows. WTI crude is trading around $59-60 per barrel, down from earlier highs, removing a key pillar of support for the loonie.
November Outlook: Bearish
The Canadian Dollar faces a challenging November. USD/CAD has moved higher to the 1.40 handle, and while some analysts expect a return to 1.38 by year-end driven primarily by USD weakness, the path may be slow with potential spikes to 1.41. The loonie is expected to underperform against most G10 currencies, given the BoC's continued easing path and Canada's vulnerability to weak energy prices.
Japanese Yen (JPY): Political Dovishness Delays Normalization
Bank of Japan: Divided Board, Delayed Tightening
The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark short-term rate unchanged at 0.5% at its October meeting, as widely expected, but the decision revealed significant internal division. The vote split 7-2, with board members Naoki Tamura and Hajime Takata advocating for a hike to 0.75%, repeating their stance from the September meeting. Takata argued that "now is the appropriate time to raise interest rates," noting that inflation has remained above the bank's target for three and a half years, while Tamura called for moving toward neutral rates.
Despite these hawkish voices, Governor Kazuo Ueda maintained a cautious approach, emphasizing that the BoJ would continue with policy normalization "once its economic projections are met" but warning that global trade policies could slow growth and hurt corporate profits. The central bank reiterated its inflation outlook, projecting core CPI at 2.7% in 2025, 1.8% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while raising 2025 growth forecasts slightly to 0.7%.
Political Constraints: The Takaichi Factor
The election of Sanae Takaichi as Prime Minister in mid-October significantly altered the trajectory of BoJ policy expectations. Takaichi, known as a fiscal dove who favors expansionary fiscal measures and loose monetary policy, has complicated the path toward further tightening. Following her election, the yen depreciated more than 2% against the USD, and market expectations for an October rate hike evaporated.
The new government's support for accommodative policy creates a political constraint on the BoJ's normalization efforts, even as some policymakers argue for immediate rate hikes. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has urged the BoJ to accelerate rate hikes to prevent excessive yen depreciation, adding external pressure to the central bank's considerations. Markets now assign only a 47% chance of a December rate hike, with consensus building around a delayed move to early 2026.
November Outlook: Persistent Weakness Despite Normalization Promise
The Japanese Yen carries a weak fundamental outlook for November, reflected in its trading near 154 per USD—nine-month lows and close to the 37-week low of 153.28. The currency has weakened more than 4% in October alone, making it one of the worst G10 performers. Despite some hawkish board members and the BoJ's stated intention to continue normalization, the dovish political environment and cautious central bank approach leave the yen vulnerable.
The 3.25% interest rate differential with the USD remains a key driver supporting USD/JPY carry trades, though this spread is expected to compress toward 2.5% as the Fed continues cutting while the BoJ only gradually raises rates. While this compression could eventually support the yen, the timeline remains uncertain—potentially extending into 2026 rather than materializing in November. Technical analysis suggests immediate support near 151.73 (21-day average) with the next level around 150.11 (50-day average), but resistance looms at 154.80 and potentially 155 if the BoJ remains dovish. For November, the yen is expected to remain under pressure against most major currencies, while showing marginal strength only versus the aggressively easing NZD.
Verdict
Despite its potential fundamental strength the JPY remains one of the weakest amongst the major currencies thanks mostly to continued dovish policy. And even though CAD is not really on the winners' side itself it still has the stronger foothold going into November which makes CAD/JPY a BUY .
CADJPY - The Trio Retest Setup!📈CADJPY has been on a strong bullish run lately, but price is now approaching a critical confluence zone, the perfect Trio Retest Setup.
The red circle highlights the intersection of two upper trendlines (the rising channel and the short-term wedge) together with a major horizontal resistance at 111.00.
⚔️This trio intersection creates a powerful technical barrier, suggesting that the pair is overbought in the short term. From here, I’ll be looking for signs of exhaustion or reversal patterns to catch the next corrective leg down.
🔎A potential retracement could send CADJPY back toward the 106.00–105.00 support zone, which also aligns with the lower boundary of the main ascending channel.
Until the trio zone is broken decisively to the upside, the bears might step in to cool off the momentum.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📊All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
CAD/JPY Profit Plan – How to Layer Entries Professionally!🎯 CADJPY: The Maple Syrup Robbery Setup 🍁💴 | Multi-Layer Entry Zone Active!
📊 Market Overview
Asset: CAD/JPY (Canadian Dollar vs Japanese Yen)
Trade Type: Swing/Day Trade Hybrid
Strategy: "The Thief Method" - Multi-Layer Limit Order Accumulation
Bias: 🐂 BULLISH
🔍 Technical Analysis
The CADJPY pair is showing bullish confirmation following a textbook triangular moving average pullback and successful retest. The price structure suggests accumulation before the next leg up, making this an optimal zone for strategic layered entries.
Key Technical Confluences:
✅ Triangular MA pullback completed
✅ Support zone retest confirmed
✅ Higher lows forming on the daily timeframe
✅ Bullish momentum building above key support
💰 The Thief's Playbook: Multi-Layer Entry Strategy
Instead of a single entry point, this setup utilizes multiple limit orders (layering strategy) to build positions at favorable levels while managing risk.
🎯 Entry Layers (Limit Orders):
Layer 1: 106.800
Layer 2: 107.000
Layer 3: 107.250
Layer 4: 107.500
Layer 5: 107.750
Note: You can add more layers or adjust based on your account size and risk appetite. The beauty of this method is flexibility—enter at ANY price level within this range.
🛡️ Risk Management:
Stop Loss: 106.500
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is the Thief's suggested SL. However, YOU are the captain of your own ship! Set your stop loss based on YOUR risk tolerance. Trade at your own risk and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
🎯 Profit Targets:
Primary Target (TP1): 108.600 (+100 to +180 pips depending on entry)
Secondary Target (TP2): 109.600 (+190 to +280 pips depending on entry)
💡 Pro Tip: Consider scaling out at TP1 (take 50-70% profit) and letting the rest ride to TP2 with a trailing stop.
⚠️ Reminder: These are suggested targets. Lock in profits when YOU feel comfortable. It's YOUR money—make money, take money! 💸
🔗 Correlated Pairs to Watch
Keep an eye on these related pairs for confluence and broader market context:
OANDA:USDCAD 🇺🇸🇨🇦 - Inverse correlation (CAD strength indicator)
FX:USDJPY 🇺🇸🇯🇵 - Direct correlation (Yen weakness/strength gauge)
OANDA:AUDJPY 🇦🇺🇯🇵 - Similar risk-on/risk-off dynamic
OANDA:EURJPY 🇪🇺🇯🇵 - Cross-yen pair sentiment
BLACKBULL:WTI Crude Oil 🛢️ ( NYMEX:CL1! ) - Strong positive correlation with CAD (Canada = oil exporter)
Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) - Safe-haven correlation with JPY (inverse to CADJPY)
Key Point: If crude oil rallies and USD/JPY shows strength, it confirms the bullish CADJPY thesis. Watch for risk sentiment—risk-on = JPY weakness = CADJPY strength! 🚀
📈 Trade Summary
ParameterValueEntry Zone106.800 - 107.750 (Multi-layer)Stop Loss106.500TP1108.600TP2109.600Risk/RewardApproximately 1:2 to 1:4+
🎬 Final Words from The Thief
Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG's) 🎩✨,
This setup is about patience, precision, and proper position sizing. Layer in, manage risk, and let the market come to you. Remember: professional thieves don't rush—they plan, they execute, and they disappear with the bag! 💼💨
Stay sharp, stay strategic, and happy hunting! 🎯
✨ If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!
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