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CAD/JPY: Thief’s Playbook or Trap Zone? A Full Technical + Macro🚨 CAD/JPY – “Loonie vs Yen” Bank Heist Plan 🏦💸 (Swing/Day Trade) 📊 Market Overview (02 Sept 2025, Real-Time Data) Daily Change: +0.26% ⬆️ 52-Week Range: 101.24 – 111.57 📈 Technical Snapshot RSI (14-Day): 47.9 (Neutral zone) Moving Averages: Price trading below 50 & 200 SMA → bearish bias on higher TF Volatility: Low (0.35%) = Possible breakout setup Technical Signal: Mixed, leaning SELL from MA cluster 🧠 Sentiment & Positioning Retail Traders: Split views (mixed long/short positions) Institutions: Increasing net-long JPY exposure for 3rd consecutive week Fear & Greed Index: 61/100 (Greed mode) 🏦 Fundamental & Macro Heist Briefing: Like every great “operation,” CAD/JPY’s moves depend on central banks, commodities, and macro flows: 🇯🇵 Bank of Japan (BoJ) Gradually exiting ultra-loose policy, supported by stronger wage growth & sticky inflation. A hawkish BoJ = stronger yen = tighter barricades for our heist 🚔. 🇨🇦 Bank of Canada (BoC) Balancing rate cuts with sticky inflation & housing concerns. CAD remains highly correlated with oil prices → if crude rallies, it reloads the Loonie’s ammo 🛢️💥. 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve Impact Markets pricing a 91% chance of September rate cut. A softer USD can spill into CAD pairs, but safe-haven flows may still favor JPY. Commodities & Oil Connection CAD has high sensitivity to oil. WTI stability above $75 supports the Canadian dollar. Falling crude = weak CAD = smoother entry route for JPY “detectives.” Risk Appetite / Global Macro Equities in greed mode (S&P 500 holding above 125-day MA). Low VIX (14.2) → calm environment, but lurking volatility traps ahead. Junk bond demand signaling investors willing to take risk → CAD benefits in risk-on. Macro Score → Neutral to slightly bearish for CAD/JPY, as JPY strength from BoJ policy may outpace CAD support from oil. Macro: BoJ staying hawkish ⚔️ (inflation + wage growth) Fed tilting dovish 🕊️ (rate cut odds ~91% in Sept) CAD/JPY Macro Score → Neutral to Slightly Bearish 🎯 Thief’s Playbook (Educational Trading Blueprint) This is a “layering / DCA style” plan 🧩 – using multiple limit orders like setting up escape routes in a heist: Layer Entries (Example levels): 💰 106.000 💰 106.500 💰 106.800 💰 107.000 (you can adjust & add more “layers” based on risk appetite) Risk Management: 🛑 “Thief Stop” suggested around 105.500 (always adjust to your own risk model) Profit Objective: 🎯 Potential upside checkpoint near 109.000 (take the bag & escape before the police barricade 🚔) 🌍 Macro & Outlook Short-Term → Bearish tilt (JPY strength risk) Medium-Term → Neutral range (106 – 111) Long-Term → Potential pressure from broader JPY cycles 🐂🐻 Final Take CAD/JPY sits in a cautious zone – sentiment is mixed, with short-term JPY strength possible. But with layered entries, disciplined SL, and planned exits, traders can map their “heist strategy” like a pro. 📌 Related Pairs to Watch FX:USDJPY OANDA:EURJPY OANDA:GBPJPY OANDA:AUDJPY OANDA:CADCHF #CADJPY #Forex #SwingTrading #DayTrading #PriceAction #Yen #Loonie #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingCommunity #MarketOutlook
Long
by The-Thief
CADJPY Fading the Rally Bears Target 105.40 After Sharp ReversalCADJPY surged to fresh highs near 109.70 but quickly lost momentum, with sellers stepping in and pushing the pair lower. This sharp rejection hints at a possible top formation, especially as oil prices soften and Canadian data highlight labor market slack. With the Bank of Japan still dovish but domestic politics increasing uncertainty, CADJPY now looks vulnerable to deeper retracements, bringing key support zones into focus. Current Bias Bearish – Recent rejection at resistance strengthens the case for a corrective move lower toward 107.30 and potentially 105.40. Key Fundamental Drivers Canada: September labor force survey showed employment gains (+60k) but unemployment steady at 7.1%, signaling economic slack despite wage growth cooling to ~3.3% y/y. Japan: BOJ policy remains accommodative, but political uncertainty and wage negotiations add a backdrop of yen volatility. Commodities: Oil, Canada’s key export, has softened from recent highs, weighing on CAD support. Macro Context Interest Rates: BoC seen as patient, with markets pricing slower easing despite elevated unemployment. BOJ stays dovish, but political pressures could gradually shift expectations. Economic Growth: Canada is slowing, while Japan’s growth remains modest but wage-driven improvements keep the yen in play. Geopolitics & Trade: Trump tariffs and global trade risks weigh more heavily on CAD than JPY, as Japan benefits from safe-haven flows. Primary Risk to the Trend A sharp rebound in oil or a dovish shift in BoJ communication could limit JPY gains and re-strengthen CADJPY. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event Canada CPI – inflation readings will determine how patient the BoC can remain. BOJ commentary – any shift in tone on policy normalization could lift JPY across the board. Leader/Lagger Dynamics CADJPY tends to be a lagger, following moves in oil and USDJPY. It often amplifies volatility seen in broader JPY crosses like EURJPY and GBPJPY. Key Levels Support Levels: 107.30 105.40 Resistance Levels: 109.20 110.10 Stop Loss (SL): 110.10 Take Profit (TP): 105.40 Summary: Bias and Watchpoints CADJPY has shifted into bearish territory after rejecting 109.70, with momentum now pointing to downside targets at 107.30 and 105.40. The fundamental backdrop favors JPY resilience amid global risk caution and CAD softness tied to weaker oil and labor slack. A protective stop sits at 110.10, while take profit aligns with the 105.40 zone. Keep an eye on Canada CPI and BOJ rhetoric, as either could trigger sharp swings.
Short
by ultreosforex
Could we see a bearish reversal?CAD/JPY is reacting off the pivot and could potentially drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 109.28 1st Support: 107.99 1st Resistance: 109.75 Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by IC Markets
1
CADJPY Is Going Up! Long! Here is our detailed technical review for CADJPY. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 107.608. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 109.447 level soon. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
CADJPY - Expecting Bullish Continuation In The Short TermH1 - Strong bullish momentum. No opposite signs. Until the two Fibonacci support zones hold I expect the price to move higher further. If you enjoy this idea, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌, and COMMENT ✍! Drop your thoughts and charts below to keep the discussion going. Your support helps keep this content free and reach more people! 🚀 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by VladimirRibakov
CADJPY 4H shortI started already selling CADJPY at 107.704, because the the price gap is huge and also makes the trend super extended and oversold on the 1H. Price gaps tend to fill often. The first resistance level is at 107.998, the second resistance level is at 108.937. I believe on of the two levels will trigger the selloff big time to the gap possibly. So in between I'm happy to sell. I placed 4 sell limit orders with 30 pips difference each see the chart. There is also high impact news for JPY and CAD so let's see if that can fuel the party. Combined with my rules it looks like a good story that is coming togheter: Rules: extended trend no pullbacks / consillidation support or resistance zone rsi oversold or overbought PS: CADJPY is simmilar as USDJPY btw but I like CADJPY more because there are more resistance levels visible on the 4H chart.
Short
by FX-Diaries
CADJPY | BullishHTF: Strong bullish momentum continues, with price maintaining higher highs and clear upside intent. Looking to catch the continuation ride, so focus shifts to mid timeframes to see if key areas hold. MTF: Price swept sell-side liquidity and delivered a deep mitigation into a key OB zone. Another layer of confirmation is needed for the zone to solidify — once that happens, attention shifts to the LTF for precise confirmation. LTF: When price taps the point of interest, I’ll wait for the final LH flip followed by a pullback into discounted areas to take long positions along the bullish leg — targeting 5M, 30M, and potentially 2H or 4H highs depending on market delivery. 📦 Patience until alignment — precision entries only when the story completes. ⚔️
Long
by Juicemannn
CAD/JPY – Institutional Short Setup (H4 + Macro Bias)Macro Context The pair remains under a long-term bearish structure. After completing the most recent short swing, price has started a potential contraction phase, possibly leading to a retracement toward the premium zone around 107. All higher-timeframe dealing ranges continue to align with a bearish macro bias. COT Institutional View Institutions remain net short on CAD (-114.8K) and net long on JPY (+79.5K) — clear macro pressure favoring JPY. CAD shows structural weakness, while JPY continues its accumulation and recovery phase. Technical Setup We are waiting for price to approach the premium zone (75%) and the round number 107, where a fresh supply area overlaps with the POC concentration — a key region of potential institutional activity. Execution Plan Trigger: Mini redistribution or rejection pattern within the supply zone. Entry: Once price reaches the upper premium / supply area. Stop: Above 107.20 (invalidates the short bias). Target: -25% swing projection / 104.50 zone. Summary “The market has just completed its short swing and is likely entering a contraction phase. If price retraces into the 107 supply area, institutional selling could resume, reinforcing the macro bearish context.”
Short
by philipemav
CADJPY shortThe Canadian economy is and will be in trouble until they get an agreement with their American partner on trade deals. There is a 50% chance of cut at their October meeting. IT is not a done deal, since they cut last meeting, but unless we get some good data, a cut is possible. The Boj has a 40% chance of a hike at their next meeting. They had a few members voting for a hike at their last meeting, which was hawkish for the Yen. I won't write an essay on the reasons why I take the trade but let's just say, CAD is weak and Yen could get stronger on next meeting hike probability. We got the 38 fib, retest of the broken structure and the 200 daily MA waiting at the zone. 106-106.20 is my zone to sell. Good luck!
Short
by NomadTrader999
CADJPY Set for October Crash? Institutions Bet Big on Yen 📊 Multi-Factor Analysis – CADJPY COT Data JPY: Net long positions are strongly increasing → Non-Commercial long +14.7K, Commercial long +12K. Institutional flows favor the Yen, confirming a bullish bias on JPY. CAD: Heavy liquidation → Commercial longs -49K, shorts -59K, Non-Commercial longs decreasing (-2.9K). Net positioning shows bearish sentiment on CAD, with a clear prevalence of short exposure among speculators. 👉 Interpretation: Institutional flows point toward a strong JPY and weak CAD → bearish bias on CADJPY. Seasonality CAD: Historically weak in October (negative averages in 20Y and 15Y, worsening in 5Y and 2Y). JPY: Historically strong in October, especially on short-term frames (5Y and 2Y very bullish). 👉 Interpretation: Seasonality supports a bearish scenario on CADJPY during October. Retail Sentiment 90% Long vs 10% Short on CADJPY. 👉 Extreme retail long positioning = contrarian bearish signal → potential for further downside pressure. Technical Analysis CADJPY broke below the descending trendline. Currently trading inside the weekly demand zone (105–106), acting as short-term support. RSI oversold → likely technical bounce toward 106.8–107.2 (supply + trendline) before continuation lower. Primary structure remains bearish, with medium-term targets at 104.80–105.00.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
7
CAD/JPY: Recovery in Progress with Key Resistance Levels AheadCAD/JPY has bounced from the 105.25 low following a recent selloff and is now climbing back within the ascending channel. Price action is forming a recovery structure, with momentum building toward the 106.50–107.00 resistance zone. Maintaining support above the 105.60–105.80 area is crucial for the bullish outlook to remain intact. If momentum holds, the pair may extend the move into a broader reversal, targeting the higher 107.90 resistance level in the sessions ahead.
Long
by RTED_Investing
2
Lingrid | CADJPY Oversold Bounce Long OpportunityFX:CADJPY has bounced off the 105.25 bottom after the recent selloff and is now reclaiming ground inside the channel. Price action is forming a recovery structure with the upward projection aiming toward 106.50–107.00 as the next resistance zone. Holding above the 105.60–105.80 area is key for the bullish outlook to remain valid. If momentum continues, a broader reversal toward 107.90 resistance could unfold. ⚠️ Risks: Failure to hold above 105.60–105.80 would weaken bullish momentum. Strong JPY demand from risk-off sentiment or BoJ intervention could cap upside. Weak CAD fundamentals such as lower oil prices could trigger renewed selling. If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!
Long
by Lingrid
2
CADJPY 4H – Reversal Watch (Patience Mode)• Context: Sharp drop into demand. • Structure: Want a hammer or clear multi-wick rejection off the zone. • Volume: Need upside expansion on/near the trigger candle (no pop = no entry). • Momentum: Currently strong with divergence—good if it confirms with structure + volume. Trigger: Engulfing/hammer confirmation from the AOI with rising volume. Invalidation: Fresh LL that erases the zone or a bounce on weak volume. Bottom line: Waiting for alignment—otherwise, no trade. #VMS #VolumeMomentumStructure #CADJPY
by darlwright
CADJPY Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell! Here is our detailed technical review for CADJPY. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 107.266. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 106.211 level soon. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1