DXY trade ideas
Dollar Headed Higher?Looking at the price of the dollar from a daily perspective, we can see that price accumulated for about 3 full trading weeks. Manipulation took place soon after, followed by 3 strong bullish candles.
Now that bulls have entered the market after the manipulation, I fully expect the distribution to take place after retesting the bullish FVG.
Since this is the dollar we're talking about, this price movement will most likely affect the price of other assets including Gold and dollar pairs.
Targeting the daily POI/Medium BSL.
MIXED SIGNALS ON THE DOLLAR INDEXThe dollar index has beautifully retraced 100% of a bearish Butterfly pattern that was identified between July 1st and August 13th 2025, hitting the monthly support target of 95.911. There has been a strong bounce from this support zone into the weekly closing range.
What we currently have now is also a bullish Butterfly pattern on the daily chart and the bounce from the support zone has retraced to exactly the 0.382 fib level (97.336). The weekly hammer candle suggests that bulls will attempt to reach the 0.5 fib level, however lower time frames shows that the bulls are losing their strength. As such, I am not expecting DXY to continue grinding up next week without a major pullback to retest the weekly candle wicks. Basically expecting a lot of volatility in both directions.
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First day of the week and Dollar dropWith the market opening, the Dollar Index continued its decline and reached a key support level. However, I think it could bounce from this area and move up toward the middle of the range. We’ll have to see how long this level can hold the price, since the Dollar Index has been bearish for quite some time. ✅
US DOLLAR War Map stays simple right nowThe dollar’s been sliding for months, but we finally saw the range lows taken out after the FOMC spike, and that sets up the next move.
Here’s how I’m reading it:
Rotation lower is still the logical path unless politics or surprise news change the game.
On the DXY chart, I’m watching for a heavy-volume node to act as a target for a short-term pullback higher.
For cross-pairs, that means I’ll look for short setups while using the recent bullish dollar lows as day-to-day reference points.
Key level to watch: around 98.7, where heavy bearish order-flow has been building.
If the market keeps moving, it’s a straightforward trade plan: stay positive, take intraday signals, and let the bigger down-cycle play out.
MY VIEW ON THE DXY - 22 / 26 SEPTEMBER 2025Last week we saw the Index testing a new low, continuing its downward trend, cause by the Feds cutting interest rates.
On the major frames the Index is in fact bearish unless we have a clear move above 101.400.
This week I expect a pullback to the 98.300 - 98.750 critical area of resistance by Tuesday, Powell speech could push the index up to 101.050 - 101.350 or down to new lows in the 96.000 - 95.220 area of support.
dxy 4hTrading Perspectives for the Upcoming Week
In this series of analyses, we have reviewed short-term trading perspectives and outlooks.
As can be seen, in each analysis there is a significant support/resistance zone near the current asset price. The market’s reaction to or break of this level will determine the future price trend up to the next specified levels.
Important Note: The purpose of these trading perspectives is to examine key price levels and the market’s potential reactions to them. The analyses provided are by no means trading signals!
DXY: Next Move Is Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 96.860 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 96.957 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Dollar Index Holding Up But GBPUSD Might Change That...Dollar = Relative Game, Not Absolute
Dollar Index isn’t just the USD — it’s USD vs a basket (mainly EUR, JPY, GBP).
If the Fed cuts but ECB, BOE, and BOJ are also leaning dovish, the relative advantage doesn’t change; USD stays steady.
The dollar has been consolidating because macro signals are mixed (Fed easing vs US resilience, inflation uncertainty, global growth divergence), and the euro/yen/GBP balance out.
The market is waiting for a clear catalyst — usually a Fed decision, inflation report, or geopolitical shock to break the range.
DXY Weekly Fundamental factors: The US domestic economy and the imposition of additional tariffs on consumer goods from China and Russia, as well as the confidence building of global opinion that the US will not start a war, all of these factors can help the index grow.
Technical factors: The oversold situation and the gap between the Keysin and Tensin lines increased, as a result, there is a possibility of price growth.
Bearish reversal off 61.8% Fibonacci resistance?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 98.11
1st Support: 97.36
1st Resistance: 98.47
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Dollar index downtrend continuationOn the daily timeframe, we could observed a downtrend movement impact of the NFP news.
The market then, made a healthy retracement.
When will this retracement end?
Lets zoom-in in a lower timeframe.
This chart is m30. We could observed a complete H&S pattern hint for down movement is about to start.
I believed it can go further down but lets aim as what H&S pattern suggest,
Distance from 'Head' to 'Neckline'= Distance from 'Neckline' to 'Target'.
This is analysis is for my future reference.
If you want to follow, make sure calculate your own risk & reward.
This analysis will have corelation with other currencies:-
USDXXX : Down trend
XXXUSD : Up trend
Good Luck
Will history repeat for Dixie and TrumpThe Wild Card: The US Dollar (Dixie) Trend. A sustained Trump-led drop in the Dixie (as we had seen in his first term) is still a significant downside risk for the dollar.
Potentially lifting majors further even despite the woes of European currencies and most risk assets. This is the "smart money buys dips" trend we've seen across Cable and Euro. However, this is a bet on a US story, not a Euro Zone one and could reverse temporarily before eventually go lower and taking Sterling and the Euro with it as the multi-polar world arises.
For now, Dixie has enjoyed a boost from better than expected Treasury sales, last month seeing massive inflows and strong demand. Especially from indirect buyers (foreign investors) with the primary dealers, buyers of last resort, given some respite (seeing lowest participation on record).
Perhaps a catalyst for a swift dollar rally into more aggressive downward pressure.
With the US potentially dipping into a recession. The dollar generally does well in economic slowdowns. But can it stop the drop to 93.6 ?