2025 – The Year of the Normalized Dollar (Episode 2)2025 – The Year of the Normalized Dollar (Episode 2) 📉💵
📆 Feb 25 was just the beginning — and now we’ve got confirmation.
DXY couldn’t hold above structure, and the drop is on. What began as a quiet theme is turning into the macro headline:
The King Dollar is softening... on purpose.
🔍 Chart Context
• 🔴 Rejection at 112.3 — clean and brutal**
• 🔁 100.95 now flipped into resistance**
• 📉 Heading toward Target: 94.37** — the long-term structure low
The structure hasn’t changed — only the velocity has.
This isn’t a flash move. This is policy-meets-price.
🧨 Fundamentals: Trump’s Soft Dollar Doctrine
Back on January 23, Trump told the world exactly what he wanted:
“I’d like to see interest rates come down… a lot.”
“Oil down, prices down, inflation gone — and then rates down.”
Translation?
💵 A weaker dollar to fuel exports, ease debt loads, and juice the real economy.**
This is not weakness — it’s a recalibration.
Add in:
• Tariffs + labor policy inflation
• Pressure on Powell
• Geopolitical chess moves (Putin negotiations, Middle East detente)
→ and you’ve got a coordinated softening playbook.
📉 What’s Next?
• 🔹 Break 98 = Target 94.37 opens wide
• 🧱 If 94 cracks, we’ll re-assess — but for now, that’s the magnet
• DXY needs a miracle to reclaim strength without Fed resistance easing
2025 could be the year the dollar gets normalized by force — not finesse.
🔄 Perspective Shift 🔄
This isn’t dollar death — it’s dollar diplomacy.
Strong enough to hold global weight, soft enough to boost Main Street.
You think this isn’t coordinated? Look again. 📡
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
First episode:
⚠️ I’m not a financial advisor — just a philosopher with better chart vision than 99% of the noise out there. What I share is my view, not a signal. You trade? You’re responsible. Just don’t blame me when I’m right again.
Trade ideas
US Dollar: Look For Buys As The Pullback Ends!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Nov. 17 - 21st.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: USD Dollar
The USD was in retracement last week. It looks like that may be ending, and a new bullish leg could potential start early this week.
Wait patiently for the bullish shift in the market at a key poi... like the Weekly +FVG highlighted in the video. The 1H TF should make this obvious, and look to long the USD against its currency counterparts.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
$DXY $BTCHope all is well and wishing you a wonderful 2025 Holiday Season.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC & TVC:DXY
In recent news, Bitcoin and the Dollar are currently priced at $86,466 & $100.26.
I believe the Dollar will increase through 2026-2027, as the economy reflects current labor markets, deflation, and "risk-off" equities, as investors seek safe harbor during troubling times.
From the historical price action, you can see the Dollar gaining strength, as CRYPTOCAP:BTC falls relative to the Dollar demand.
Vice versa, as the Dollar weakens, risk profile turns on and price action increases for CRYPTOCAP:BTC and other speculative assets.
I'm estimating TVC:DXY to reach $110-$115 (Average $112.50), which can place CRYPTOCAP:BTC around $62,000-$46,000 (Average $54,000).
God Speed,
JR
DXY | Testing Major Resistance — Break or Rejection?The dollar is pressing into a key resistance zone just as real yields continue to firm and the Fed quietly steps back from the “early-cuts” narrative. Inflation is still running above the comfort band, and the market is repricing the path of rates upward.
That combination keeps USD carry attractive and supports a potential breakout through this level.
The only thing that turns this into a rejection area is a sharp shift lower in inflation or a clear softening in growth data. Until then, the bias stays with a topside extension rather than a reversal.
PRE-NY CONDITIONS Dollar is pressing into a major cross-asset high, recognized across FX, yields, and risk assets. London kept DXY inside a tight structure with no clean breakout, which turns this level into stop-time: the point where liquidity pauses and the market decides whether the move extends or fades.
Front-end yields remain firm, anchoring the Dollar’s support. The 10-year is indecisive, offering no confirmation and keeping the curve without a clear macro signal. ES holds its overnight gap on Nvidia strength, but volatility near 21 keeps risk fragile. Gold remains neutral, reflecting a balanced but uncertain safety tone into the U.S. session.
DXY: Testing a major high; range-bound after London; structure stretched but supported by 2Y strength.
US10Y: Indecisive daily structure; long end is not confirming Dollar strength; macro tone remains unclear.
US2Y: Firm short-end repricing; maintains policy pressure and supports Dollar tone.
ES: Holding gap; risk appetite supported but shallow; volatility still limiting follow-through.
Gold: Neutral safety tone; neither attracting nor rejecting flows; reflects cross-asset indecision.
VIX: Near 21; elevated volatility keeps conditions reactive and reduces trend reliability.
Cross-asset alignment remains mixed. The Dollar is firm, but only the front end confirms it. Long-end yields hesitate. ES shows controlled appetite, but volatility denies conviction. Gold confirms the indecision. Liquidity conditions lean cautious, shaped more by bond market signals than by clean macro drivers.
Pillar Focus: PEM — Confirmation Entries
Today's environment aligns with PEM logic. A stretched Dollar at a major level, split yields, and elevated volatility mean operators should rely on confirmation-based triggers, shorter engagements, and strict timing. High-frequency windows (NY open → 10:00 → London fix) carry more clarity than directional assumptions.
Follow higher-timeframe direction
Ignore noise from earlier sessions
Wait for structure + flow alignment
Act only on confirmation
Summary: NY opens into a cautious environment defined by a stretched Dollar, mixed yields, and elevated volatility — a clear PEM day.
— CORE5DAN
Institutional Logic. Modern Technology. Real Freedom.
NOV.9,2025 ANALYSIS ON DXY, BTC, NAS100, SPX500, XAUUSD & XAGUSDDXY CAUTION trading Below 55 EMA on 4H however 4H divergence at support zone is promising for uptrend continuation. Trend is still up on the daily chart and currently getting push back from the 200SMA. There are indicators supporting uptrend continuation such as the MACD histogram still up on weekly chart and unconfirmed RSI Bullish divergence on the 4H timeframe. A breakdown below 99.029 could target the 98.700 level next. However if the current support holds then our next target is 100.608 for the coming week and confirmation signal is a candle open and close above the 55 EMA on the 4H timeframe.
BTC BEARISH SIDEWAYS consolidating on the weekly 55 EMA support. While the weekly 55 EMA has acted as a support during previous rallies on BTC, I think this time is different until proven otherwise by the chart as there is no RSI divergence, MACD momentum signal similar to previous signals on the current weekly chart. A breakdown of the 55 EMA on the weekly chart is very likely to reach the triple tops target of $88,016. Trade cautiously until we breakout of the daily sideways channel described in the video presentation.
NAS100 & SP500 BEARISH with 4H mom trending down. There is a support on the daily 55 EMA or weekly 9 EMA, but evidence supporting the bearish case is the MACD crossover and bearish histogram bars on daily charts. Weekly MACD and RSI signals serious divergences since July, 2025. My conclusion is that based on Bullish engulfing candle on 4H, I think there will be a bounce to the rise targets on the charts before dumping.
GOLD & SILVER SIDEWAYS: both consolidating in a pennant triangle on the 12H timeframe and I suggest it's best to wait for a breakout of the triangle for either a re-test of the all time highs to create a weekly divergence on the indicators or below the pennant triangle lows for the lower targets.
I did also examine the US10Y Yields as it affects both the dollar index and the equites market. The US10Y Yield seem to have bottomed it's downtrend on the 4H chart and currently consolidating above the 200 EMA and 55 EMA. I will be monitoring an uptick or a breakdown from this support zone.
These are my observation on the market this week and I thank you for visiting my publications.
Please give the publication a boost, comment with your insights and share with a trader you care about. They will thank you when it saves them from a bad trade or a missed opportunity. Have a profitable and great trading week. Cheers .
USD trades north of 200-day SMAFrom the monthly timeframe, price action is attempting to manoeuvre north of key resistance from 99.67. In fact, this is the highest the USD Index (DXY) has traded since May this year. Assuming buyers can hold the fort above the noted resistance line, this could give the greenback some legs to run to the 50-month SMA at 102.83. Ultimately, though, given the lower low formed in September at 96.22 – helping to reaffirm a downtrend – a move to the 50-month SMA could be viewed as a pullback to sell.
Drilling down to the daily timeframe, USD bulls lifted price above the 200-day SMA at 99.92. In addition to the 50-day SMA turning higher (98.71), most technical analysts will view the close above the 200-day value as a bullish cue. However, to gain more conviction in the break of the monthly resistance mentioned above and the 200-day SMA, I would like to see the daily resistance at 100.54 taken out. Once/if this level is absorbed, the river north is relatively ripple-free to daily resistance at 101.92. This level, combined with the 50-month SMA, provides a clear medium-term upside objective for USD bulls.
Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill
Turning pointThe DXY may have bottomed out on September 17. The subsequent price action could be a series of first and second waves. It either could be simply ABC.
We will get confirmation of this hypothesis next week. If the DXY fails to fall below 97.75, it will confirm that the EURUSD is on the verge of its most significant price movement since 2022.
If to look at the EURUSD SMA 1M TF, we can see that they are bending downward, which is a clue.
The bottom of EURUSD wave 4 is the target - 0.94 per single EUR unit
In addition, gold confirmed the end of the fifth wave intermediate degree this Friday. Gold and the US Dollar usually correlate with each other, usually.
In the short term two cases are probable:
1) DXY may break resistance 100.7 - 102%
2) Coll down to 97,795%
Most likely, both events will occur.
DXY 1D - dollar waking up, but patience is keyOn the daily chart, the US Dollar Index is showing the first signs of recovery: a falling wedge breakout and trendline breach hint that bulls are slowly reclaiming control. Price has moved above the EMA, a short-term bullish signal.
Still, MA200 remains above, reminding us that the broader trend is not yet flipped. The ideal play here - wait for a retest of the breakout trendline to confirm buyers’ strength before jumping in.
If price holds above 99.70, the next upside targets sit around 100.19, 101.31, and 102.63.
But keep in mind - DXY loves to test patience. False breakouts are its favorite sport.
Right now, the dollar looks ready to wake up, but maybe hit the snooze button one last time before the real move begins.
Dollar Index: Bullish Structure + Fed Expectations AligningDXY remains inside a well-defined ascending channel and is currently building structure above mid-channel support. With the Dec 10 Fed meeting approaching, the macro narrative may soon favor additional USD strength.
According to CME FedWatch, markets are pricing:
55.6% probability the Fed holds rates
44.4% probability of a cut
A hold keeps U.S. yields supported and has historically provided short-term upside pressure on the Dollar Index.
Technical Outlook
Price is respecting the ascending channel
Current pullback sits on a key demand zone + channel support
Higher-timeframe supply is above, but continuation structure is intact
The October rate cut reaction formed a clean bullish trend leg — this could be the next impulsive wave
My Bias
I’m anticipating USD strength into — and potentially after — the December Fed meeting, especially if the Fed reiterates cautious, data-dependent language rather than confirming more cuts.
Bullish Thesis:
A Fed hold + risk-off repricing → upside continuation on DXY
Key Levels to Watch:
🔼 100.80
🔼 101.50 (major supply break target)
🔼 102.20+ if momentum accelerates
Invalidation:
A clean break below channel support + demand zone.
DXY Bearish Setup- USD Weakness in Play..FINALLY! The DXY is showing a bearish bias, signaling potential USD weakness this week. Expect the following moves:
Bearish USD pairs:
USD/JPY (UJ): Selling pressure continues as USD loses momentum.
USD/CHF (UCHF): Weak USD drives the pair lower.
USD/CAD (UCAD): USD softness supports further downside.
Bullish non-USD pairs:
AUD/USD (AU): Strength in AUD pushes price higher.
EUR/USD (EU): EUR benefits from a weaker USD, moving up.
GBP/USD (GU): GBP rises as USD falls.
NZD/USD (NU): NZD continues upward momentum against USD.
Hashtags:
#Forex #DXY #USDWeakness #CurrencyTrading #ForexSetup #USDJPY #USDCHF #USDCAD #AUDUSD #EURUSD #GBPUSD #NZDUSD
Bullish bounce off?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance resistance.
Pivot: 99.78
1st Support: 99.34
1st Resistance: 100.71
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USD Re-Tests Massive Resistance Level as Rate Cut Rally Goes OnSeptember 18th of last year - that's when the Fed cut rates for the first time in that cycle, and the US Dollar set a fresh low at 100.22, building a falling wedge in the currency at the time.
That was a 'jumbo' rate cut, by the way, with the Fed knocking rates back by 50 basis points and it was the first rate cut since they had to quickly tighten rates to try to soften inflation following the spike in 2021 and 2022.
But that seemed to matter little, even though markets held expectation for more softening in 2024 which the Fed delivered with another 50 bps of moderation. That 100.22 level stood as key support - bulls rallied out of the falling wedge, and as we went into Q4, buyers took over in a very big way.
That rally held through the New Year open and then another theme took over - fear - driven by the very unknown prospect of massive tariffs levied by the US on pretty much the rest of the world. Quickly forecasts began to turn dim and fears of recession took over which, of course, were expected to be met by rate cuts.
While Trump took a step back from tariff implementation in April, allowing for both equities and USD/JPY to recover, there's remained an expectation for FOMC softening, and we've already seen two rate cuts.
But, interestingly, ever since the first cut on September 17th of this year, DXY has been pushing both higher-highs and higher-lows - and right now - the same swing low from last year of 100.22 is in-play as resistance.
This retains a bullish appearance for the greenback as the test at this level two weeks ago marked a fresh four month high. The monthly chart showed a morning star that completed in October, and the weekly and daily chart clearly shows the falling wedge breakout - all factors that point to potential strength.
Perhaps the bigger item at the moment is in that large component of DXY of the Euro, which is a 57.6% clip of the Dollar basket. EUR/USD is bearing down for another test of the 1.1500 figure, which, historically speaking, is not a level that gives way easily in the pair. - js
This is a very tough market/ a look at gold and silver and dxyOctober 19th I'm sure most people listening to this are also listening to their favorite show that helps them make a decision about the markets and the more services you start to look at the more confused you will be. Personally I'm spending very little time looking at the market but I try to take a quick glance of it either at the middle or beginning of the current day and then I can determine whether the market looks interesting or not. However the pattern on Bitcoin which I do not trade is the setup I would be looking for the markets that I would be looking to trade. Bitcoin is taking a little bit of a drawdown and there's a lot of information out there saying that Bitcoin is in trouble.... Probably from people who trade gold and silver///so you have to be careful of other people's biases.... But it will probably be tradable tomorrow on Bitcoin defined a reversal pattern going higher.... And you should be able to take a trade with a very small stop but you want to let the market come to you if you don't see a 2 bar reversal indicating that Bitcoin is going to go higher you can't take the trade.
Dollar Index: Range-Bound But Bullish? 3 Scenarios to WatchThe Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY ) is in a global range, within which there is a bullish daily order flow. This flow is manifesting as a sequential mitigation of, and reversal from, imbalances and manipulation zones.
On November 5th, a deviation above the global range occurred, sweeping external liquidity. This was engineered by a manipulation in the form of a Daily Order Block . Following this, the index began a corrective decline and is now approaching a POI (Demand Zone) and potential Fibonacci reversal levels.
Long positions can be considered from one of these levels, targeting the upper boundary of the range (the mitigation of the Daily OB).
SCENARIO 1: Requires price to find acceptance above the 50% level upon reaching it and mitigating the Demand Zone.
SCENARIO 2: If this level is broken, the next 61.8% level (also inside the Demand Zone) may act as support.
SCENARIO 3: If this level is also broken, a liquidity sweep of the Oct 28 low is highly probable, which would be accompanied by a test of the 78.6% Fib level .
The entry condition for a long setup from each level is confirmed acceptance above it and the beginning of a bullish order flow on a lower timeframe .
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The principles and conditions for forming the manipulation zones I show in this trade idea are detailed in my educational publication, which was chosen by TradingView for the "Editor's Picks" category and received a huge amount of positive feedback from this insightful trading community. To better understand the logic I've used here and the general principles of price movement in most markets from the perspective of institutional capital, I highly recommend checking out this guide if you haven't already. 👇
P.S. This is not a prediction of the exact price direction. It is a description of high-probability setups that become valid only if specific conditions are met when the price reaches the marked POI. If the conditions are not met, the setups are invalid. No setup has a 100% success rate, so if you decide to use this trade idea, always apply a stop-loss and proper risk management. Trade smart.
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US Dollar Index Tests Key Resistance Near 100 as Momentum BuildsThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to hover near the psychological 100.00 level after recovering from its October lows. Price is currently consolidating just below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which aligns closely with horizontal resistance around 100.30 — a level that has capped rallies several times this year.
The 50-day SMA (near 98.65) has begun to slope upward, suggesting short-term momentum remains constructive, though the broader trend still leans cautious below the 200-day SMA.
Momentum indicators are showing gradual improvement. The MACD histogram is slightly positive, hinting at renewed bullish pressure, while the RSI holds above 60, reflecting strengthening momentum without yet entering overbought territory.
A decisive close above 100.30 could signal a potential shift in medium-term sentiment, whereas rejection from this zone would reinforce the prevailing range between 96.40 and 100.30.
Overall, the index shows cautious bullish momentum approaching a major technical test.
-MW
NFP news for tom analysis NFP – meaning Non-Farm Payrolls
It’s the monthly report of jobs created in the US.
When NFP is high, it means many new jobs were added — which signals a strong economy.
So when the economy is strong, the US dollar (DXY) also tends to strengthen.
When the dollar is strong, it usually correlates with other currencies like EURUSD and GBPUSD, and also Gold (though sometimes Gold doesn’t follow this correlation).
DXY FRGNT Daily Forecast -Q4 | W47| D19 | Y25 |📅 Q4 | W47| D19 | Y25 |
📊 DXY FRGNT Daily Forecast
🔍 Analysis Approach:
I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on:
Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️
Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐
Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎
Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅
This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price.
💡 My Motto:
"Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge."
A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐
⚠️ Losses?
They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲
They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️
🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast.
Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital
— FRNGT 🚀
TVC:DXY






















