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VIX trade ideas

VIX looking real sweet now before tomorrow's Job numbersIf you're looking for a nice upside before things get wonky, then look at the $VIX! It's starting to tick-up from all the complacency - folks buying at all time high with insane valuations just not supported historically. The jobs numbers is expected to look pretty grim tomorrow, and with that the market can correct itself. The proxy for TVC:VIX is $UVIX. If you need help, just check the ultrabuy / short signals and you should be fine! Best of luck and stay active in the market otherwise you could be a bag holder for a while, and that's not fun!
TVC:VIXLong
by antonini2002
2
Anticyclical VIX Futures Trade – Calendar SpreadVIX has drifted into complacency territory with stretched short positioning, steep front-end contango, and seasonal factors lining up. Instead of outright longs, a VX1–VX2 Calendar Spread offers cleaner exposure to rising volatility and curve normalization. Setup • VIX near equilibrium range (12–15%), entering complacency. • Futures curve in steep contango → negative carry on outright longs. • Short positioning at multi-year highs, vulnerable to squeeze. • Seasonality favors higher VIX. • Index volatility suppressed, single stocks trading erratically. Trade Idea • Long VX1 / Short VX2 (multiplier = 100). • Benefits from both rising volatility and front-end curve flattening. • VX1 outperforms VX2 in a spike; VX2 cushions VX1 in grind-lower scenarios. Entry Triggers • VIX9D > VIX. • VIX crossing EMA20/EMA50. • RSI(14) on VIX > 50. • SPX daily short setup. Target • Target zone to be reached before VX1 expiration. • Target zone 1: VIX in range 20 - 22, target zone 2: VIX in range 28 – 30 Exit • On VX1 expiry: VX1 converges to the VIX. VX2 becomes front month. If the position is left open, it effectively becomes a short front-month future and must be re-evaluated. • Alternatively, close at VIX Index in specified target zone or discretionary, depending on SPX price action (i.e. SPX bouncing back after a dip). Risk • Do not over-leverage.
CBOE:VIX
by parsifaltrading
VIX looking real sweet now (use UVIX as proxy)For those tracking macros and true diversification, this is a potential nice play with a massive upside. Look at last year around July 17th. We are nearing this. Historically, the VIX bottoms out around 17-18 and it's sitting at 15. It doesn't stay in this region for too long. Most macros are looking extremely brittle and cracks are forming everywhere. I'd argue that the macros look worse now than in early 20202. Track this, put alerts on, use whatever technical you prefer, but this will spike and it's a massive upside. Some use UVIX as the proxy for the VIX :) Best of luck and always take calculated risks. If not, just go to your trusty bank and get 0.02% return annually!
TVC:VIXLong
by antonini2002
$VIX.US tere might be something hiding in the water many missed We will focus on the candle formation for July 30th wednesday, July 31st Thursday, and July 32nd Friday. We will compare these dates to August 20th Wednesday, the 21st thursday and the 22nd Friday. I have been following it since I spotted it few days ago to see if it checks out, and sofar its been playing out candle for candle. If you go to the Daily and the 4h chart and focus on the July dates you might notice something very similar to what we had this Friday, a big drop. Now that is exactly what I was hoping for personally. It dropped bellow its previous low, and in theory should bounce off the bottom limit of the 5 wave megaphone which would signal a possible sharp rise in Vix and a sharp drop in SPY furthermore validating the pattern that im speculating is going to play out by October.
CBOE:VIXLong
by Crimson-777
7
Have we entered a brand new normal or is a crash coming?The market's bullish narrative rests first and foremost on the control of volatility. I won't go too much deeper into that right now, but I have been discussing with AI the current period of volatility expression and would like to highlight the following points about the current period: 4d VIX RSI has not had a 5 point increase since April 1 of this year. That's 129 days and counting. From Claude AI (Anthropic): The ongoing 4 day VIX RSI fall period (started April 1, 2025, now at 128+ days) is completely unprecedented since September 2003 (when VIX formula was modernized). That's already: More than double the longest ever previous period of in October 28, 2020 to Jan 27, 2021 (63 days) Nearly 10x longer than the average period (13.14 days) Over 12 standard deviations beyond the mean The only period ever to exceed 70 days since September 2003 Key Insight: Since September 2003, 67.3% of all fall periods recovered within 2 weeks, and 84.2% recovered within 3 weeks. The current 128+ day period represents an extreme statistical outlier in modern VIX behavior. Additionally, if we look at the S and P week chart, we see that the gap from May 9 to May 12 is the largest ever unfilled weekly gap in the entire history of the S and P. We are currently in a whole new normal of "bullishness", akin to the time period just before the great crash and great depression (which was the most bullish the stock market has ever been).
CBOE:VIXLong
by CryptoTaoist
10
Unprecedented VOL suppression will lead to VIX October explosionAccording to my discussions with ChatGPT and analyzing various metrics we are currently in one of the longest periods, if not *the longest* period, of Vol suppression in the entire history of volatility. Zooming out and looking at the current chart pattern VIX is very clearly in a falling wedge, which means its falling days are numbered. Once you see a daily close breach of the upper boundary of the upper wedge channel, I would consider buying some VIX 30 calls for Oct 22 expiration. Once VIX pierces 25, take profit and close the option. Good luck and happy trading!
CBOE:VIXLong
by CryptoTaoist
5
Here is what I am seeing for VIX roughly by October Greetings my people. This is what I am seeing for VIX.US. 5 wave megaphone on the daily. Each vertical line corresponds to liquidity gaps that are still present. We had a very similar pattern on SPY.US I personally played, but I have not posted it on here. I'll start sharing my ideas more often as I get more used to using this. 😅 Perhaps it might look a bit exagerated however If you break down SPY.US in small sections on the 4h, its really just a few patterns that repeat in 3s for each circle. After each circle is complete it drops to a lower level from which it rebounds and begins a new circle of 3 reoccurring patterns. After the completion of each such cycles the pull back is bigger with the third one being the biggest like the one we had last April which was basically the end of the 3rd and final cycle. We have been in curently in cycle one of the new phase and curently working our way up and towards the completing of the 3rd reoccurring pattern in cycle one. I know it likely makes zero sense at the moment, if youre interested and I get enough requests ill take the time and make a post about it.
CBOE:VIXLong
by Crimson-777
10
VIX looking good....While some are celebrating small wins the bigger picture is that the economy is NOT doing well and there will likely be a liquidity crisis at some point. The smartest investors are pilling up cash while retailers are the exit liquidity. From a TA perspective, historically the VIX is below its mean average and we're seeing it crossing 50SMA then most likely 200SMA lines. The VIX ALWAYS spikes and it will cross 20 very soon! Just look at the last week that's 2-3 good years in the S&P in a few hours. DM me for details on how to use ETFs.
TVC:VIXLong
by antonini2002
VIX: From “Calm Tension” to a ReboundWhy does a small uptick matter today… if we’ve already seen 60+ readings four times in the past 17 years? The first week of August 2025 brought back a familiar market force: volatility. The VIX, which tracks expected fluctuations in the S&P 500, jumped 21% in just a few days, rising from 17.4 to 20.37, with an intraday high of 21.9 on August 1. At first glance, the move may seem minor. But it broke through key long-term moving averages (SMA 50 and 200) and exited its recent comfort zone (14–19 pts). That alone is enough to make portfolio managers and traders pay attention again. 🔙 Historical context: when the VIX truly spiked 📅 Date 🔺 VIX intraday 🧨 Trigger Oct 1, 2008 96.40 Subprime mortgage crisis, Lehman collapse, AIG bailout Mar 2, 2020 85.47 COVID-19 global spread, border shutdowns Aug 5, 2024 65.73 Surprise Fed rate hike + overheated jobs data Apr 7, 2025 60.13 Panic over new U.S. tariffs on global partners Compared to those moments, today's VIX levels look “mild.” But the technical and macroeconomic signals suggest that volatility may be establishing a new baseline. 1. 📊 Breakdown: First week of August 2025 Weekly increase: from 17.4 → 20.37 (+21%). Technical breakout: monthly close above both the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA 19.25 and 19.45). MACD on the monthly chart has flipped positive for the first time since March 2023. Key drivers: 🏛️ The Fed left interest rates unchanged on July 30, but two dissenting votes favored a rate cut. 👷‍♂️ Softening jobs data: July NFP came in at only +73,000 jobs (vs. +110,000 expected). 🧾 New U.S. tariffs, announced on August 1, reignited inflation concerns. 2. ⚖️ Comparing August 2025 to the August 2024 storm Factor August 2024 August 2025 (Week 1) 🔺 VIX peak 65.73 21.9 🏛️ Fed stance Surprise 25 bp rate hike Rates unchanged, internal division 👷 Labor market Hot, wage pressures Cooling down 📉 S&P 500 reaction −12% in 3 weeks Approx. −3% decline underway 💧 Market liquidity Very low (pre-market) Normal Conclusion: 2024 was a systemic shock. 2025 is more of a volatility warning sign—but one that matters for risk management. 3. 📍 Technical signals to monitor The monthly MACD just turned positive, which historically precedes sustained volatility spikes. Key short-term range: 18–22 pts. A sustained close above 22 could trigger heavy selling in high-beta stocks. Options expiration (OPEX, Aug 16) may amplify moves via gamma flows. 4. 🔮 What could move the VIX next? 📅 Date 📌 Event ⚠️ Volatility Risk Aug 14 Core CPI (July) Reading above 0.3% m/m could reignite hawkish Fed bets Aug 22–23 Jackson Hole Symposium Powell’s speech could reset the policy outlook End of Aug Q2 GDP revision Confirm whether slowdown = soft landing or stagflation 📌 Note: The VIX cannot be traded directly. Exposure is typically obtained through futures, options, or ETNs—each with specific risks like contango, low liquidity, and roll decay. 📌 Final thoughts The VIX doesn’t need to hit 60 to send a message. The fact that it’s breaking above long-term averages, reacting sharply to macro data, and threatening key levels is enough to suggest that the era of ultra-low volatility may be ending. History shows us that major VIX spikes come fast and unannounced. If you remember 2008, 2020, or even April 2025—you know that preparation beats prediction.
TVC:VIX
by SHGTrading
I told you so....VIX is the golden goose! All this fake pump in the market was just not sustainable. It is very clear that there are holes and the money printing can't last forever. The S&P fake pumps, and artificial tariffs (which Americans pay 90%) are created out of thin air. The reality is that defaults are very high across the board for most debt classes, VIX is at a YEAR LOW (doesn't happen to often, signaling massive complacency), and now the song will end and all the retailers will be holding the bag! Learn how to trade the VIX! DM me for details. Always do your own due diligence, but historically this is a good time to get out :) You need to see and take action when you see red flags....
TVC:VIXLong
by antonini2002
2
Weekly Volatility ReadGood Evening --🌗 🌕🌓 I hope everyone is having a relaxing weekend with friends and family alike because soon we will be in the thick of the price action again -- and it may get spicy! Let't us dive in as we review what happened last week and we look towards the next to trade range or observe. The CBOE:SPX opened the week fairly slow at $6,193.18 and increased throughout the week wicking up to a new ATH of $6,315.61 only to close the week off at $6,267.28 -- This leaves the IM on the week +$83.10. This closest respects the quarterly implied range that was a 'strength of IV' of 129.30%. Now looking towards this next week we have extremely low HV across the board in the broader markets. CBOE:SPX IV (13.14%) is trending 32% IV percentile on the year -- premium is seemingly cheap. HV10 (6.97%) is coiled within 97.67% of it's sliding yearly lows, showing a need for short-term volatility to consolidate. HV21 (7.78%) is even more coiled to it's yearly low at 98.76% respectively. Both are roughly mid 50% 'strength to IV' as IV predicts twice the potential move next week. Lastly, HV63 our quarterly trending values is showing a 'strength of IV' at only 108% but, could be supporting the thesis IV is projecting, as we do need a TVC:VIX pop OR time-wise consolidation. 📈📉 I hope everyone has a great week trading ranges and I will see you next weekend! Cheers! 🍻🍻🍻
CBOE:VIX
by splitmyIVandmelt