ZLH2018 trade ideas
Soybean Oil Weekly Roundup - Week ending: Aug 29, 2025🌱 Soybean Oil Weekly Roundup by Southwind 🌱
🗓️ Week ending: Aug 29, 2025
📊 Price & Chart
- Daily: Soft close, momentum weak, price under key moving averages.
- Weekly: Strong **rounded bottom** base building since 2024. Soybean’s bullish setup may help push soy oil higher.
🟢 Key Technicals
- Support: 51.13–49.79 (retracement zone, high volume area).
- Resistance: 57.17 level (major weekly barrier). Breakout above confirms uptrend.
- RSI: Neutral, still not overbought.
🌾 Soybean Factor
- Soybeans are in a bullish pattern, which usually lifts soybean oil due to their processing link (crush spread correlation).
🧭 Fundamentals
- USDA: Ample US stocks, balance sheet steady for now.
- Biofuels: Bigger 2025/26 demand projection supports medium-term outlook. ⛽
- Vegoil Market: Palm/sunflower still weighing on short-term prices, but watch for reversal.
💼 Flows & Traders
- Specs still cautious, but cross-commodity rally potential as soybeans lead. Prepare for possible upside if bull trend develops.
🚦Triggers
- 🟢 Bull signal: Break above 57.17 with volume and soybean strength.
- 🟡 Range/neutral: Bounce from support, chop likely unless soybean rally accelerates.
- 🔴 Bear risk: Loss of 49.79 support zone targets deeper base.
#Soybean Oil #ZL1! #ZL
high RR opportunity as sellers return to support in uptrend 1->4 : creates higher highs and lows, making numebr 1 a major market low when number 2 surpassed the previous pivot before this count, and number 3 a solid market low when number 4 surpassed number 2
4->5 : we return to solid major buyers in number 3 , I decided to make the pivot here becase this is the horizontal intersection of all 3 candles making this pivot without violating any of the candle bodies
what do I think will happen ?
* with a fractal higher high in the candles it shows a good sign that we might continue up from here and if the pattern and momentum/trend follows continue and surpass number 4 at some point
* we are on an uptrend and have returned to fill a gap with bullish candles at this point on the daily timeframe
* bullish divergence on both RSI and MFI
* oversold on both RSI and MFI
* zones have a 62% follow through rate on bullish follow throughs , over past 2,500 candles, you can reduce lookback to a few hundred and manually count using replay to ensure its only realtime counts, this helps in confirming our stop loss as well as a breakeven ( and potentially add position ) and take profit point.
ZL ON LAST POINT OF SUPPORTExpected to enter C phase and rebound to top TR for JAC before continuing markup.
Why Soybean Oil Outperforms Crude Oil?From their recent lows, soybean oil has quietly crept up by 50%, while crude oil has risen by 40%. The reason goes beyond the recent renewal of tensions in the Middle East — it runs deeper than that.
Mirco SoybeanOil Futures
Ticker: MZL
Minimum fluctuation:
0.02 per pound = $1.20
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
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Why the Sudden Surge in Soybean Oil Prices?Recent sharp increases in Chicago soybean oil prices reflect a confluence of dynamic global and domestic factors. Geopolitical tensions, particularly those impacting crude oil markets, have played a significant role, as evidenced by the recent surge in Brent crude futures following events in the Middle East. This volatility in the broader energy complex directly influences the cost and strategic value of alternative fuels, positioning soybean oil at the forefront of this market shift.
A primary driver of this ascent is the transformative policy initiatives from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The EPA's proposed Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volume requirements for 2026 and 2027 represent an aggressive push towards increased domestic biofuel production. These mandates, significantly exceeding previous targets, aim to bolster U.S. energy security and provide substantial support for American agriculture by boosting demand for soybeans and their derivatives. Key changes, such as the transition to RIN equivalents and reduced RIN costs for imports, are designed to further incentivize domestic consumption and reshape market dynamics.
This policy-driven demand fundamentally reorients the U.S. soybean oil market, causing Chicago Board of Trade futures to increasingly reflect internal American forces rather than global trends. This necessitates a shift in focus for traders towards physical market prices in other regions for international insights. The market has reacted swiftly, with notable increases in futures prices, a surge in open interest, and record trading volumes, indicating strong investor confidence in soybean oil's role within this evolving landscape. Concurrently, the new mandates exert pressure on imported biofuel feedstocks, further solidifying the emphasis on domestic supply.
Ultimately, the rise of soybean oil prices signifies more than just market speculation; it marks a pivotal transformation. It positions soybean oil as an essential commodity within the U.S.'s energy independence strategy, where robust domestic demand, shaped by forward-looking policy, becomes the prevailing force. This transition underscores how intertwined agricultural markets now are with national energy objectives and global geopolitical stability.
Soybean Oil LongZL1! is not net long on the regression break.
The roll long on this pair is (-0.40%). I am not taking this trade.
Soybean OilTo me the view is pretty clear. In 2026 we may see 75$
* The purpose of my graphic drawings is purely educational.
* What i write here is not an investment advice. Please do your own research before investing in any asset.
* Never take my personal opinions as investment advice, you may lose your money.
Soybean Oil Futures: Bearish Retest Signals Further Downside
The price is now failing to maintain above the short-term moving average, hinting at weak bullish follow-through.
ZLN2025 is showing signs of exhaustion after an uptrend, with bearish pressure increasing. If bulls fail to reclaim $49.00, the next leg could favor a continuation downward toward $46 and lower.
Price broke below the short-term moving average (20 EMA) and is now testing it as resistance.
This type of retest often precedes continuation of the down move.
Soybean Oil ShortSoybean Oil is now short on the regression break.
The roll short is +1.3% on the front month, but then flat on the following months.
There maybe a short term trader for a couple %.
SOYBEAN Oil Futures LongZL1! is now net long the regression break.
The front month roll is current +1.2% in favour of a long position.
I am considering this trade.
Oil Bitcoin3.10.25 in this video I look at a number of markets but the most notable is that oils probably ready to go lower but it's a hard trade to Short for me. a Bitcoins setting up for a reversal higher I believe, and I will explain that in the video.
Soybean Oil Futures ShortZL1! is now net short on Regression break downwards
This commodity has (+1.4%) monthly roll short.
I am considering this trade
ZLH 15m Long 2025-01-20 10:50PM Maybe I should call this a 5m timeframe. I did my analysis on a 15m, but refined my zones on a 5m.
Also, I was doing my analysis late on the 20th, and was seeing my target as the upper curve. If I had taken that trade, I would have wanted to follow with my stop, but I was about to go to sleep, so if my entry was filled, I wouldn't have been able to manage the trade, so I went to sleep. Upon further analysis the following morning, I realized that, by looking for a target on the 5m, I would have found a good target for a limit order.
So if I had been able to stay awake, this would have been my setup:
- Upper curve found on 1h on Jan 15: *** 46.53-17.10 ***
- Lower curve found on 1h at 1am Jan 9: *** 41.27-41.05 ***
- Entry zone: 45.81-45.77
- Target zone: 46.12-46.33
My question is: Would that have been a good trade based on solid analysis, or am I just seeing in hindsight that it *would* have worked, and tailoring my analysis to fit what the market actually did but based on weak data? Like maybe my profit zone should have been drawn based on the high on 1/16 at 06:30 or so?
Review of the markets1.15. 25 I went through a few markets today and I wanted you to see the repetitive nature of certain trade signals and I will explain this in more detail in the video. I always look for trades with a small stop..... I always look for 2 bar reversals. if you can get into a trade with a small stop and it moves in the direction of that stop because it's a two-bar reversal you will find that many of your trades will be profitable and that most of your trades will not stop you out at least for a while. the entries are systemic and you should expect to look at markets that you calculate will go in a certain direction with a small stop... but sometimes you don't want to take the trade because you're just not certain of that.... and it's okay to walk away from a trade because you don't lose money if you don't take a trade. what happens when you make an effort not to be so impulsive that you must take a trade this gives you a chance to study the market without impulsive trade decisions when the Market's not clear enough. learn from a trade that looks like it might work but you didn't like it enough to take the trade. you'll get better at it but if you trade every trade that comes along regardless of your conviction you're learning to trade impulsively and that's going to lose your money and stop you from Trading the market because it doesn't take too many losing trades before you conclude that it's not worth it. when you enter a trade you should have a Target and a stop..... some trades if you look for the buyers and the sellers will automatically tell you when you don't have a good trade when you approach it when you look for where the buyers and the sellers are at the time your contemplating an entry.
Head & Shoulders trap on Soybean OilSoybean Oil has drawn a nice Head & Shoulders pattern. After breaking the neckline, the market should have fallen - but it did the opposite, it's rising. Now, short sellers are trapped, and the market is set to punish them. They have stop losses in obvious places - TARGET 1 is the minimum the market is going to hit. TARGET 2 is very probable in my opinion; long term, Soybean Oil is in an uptrend, and the H&S failure was the Bears' last breath.
SOYBEAN OIL Future (ZL!) Long on Regression BreakSoybean Futures are running a (-1%) monthly roll long and its within the consolidation of last couple of months.
I won't take this trade and although there maybe a couple of % in it. It's just a hard grinned.
Soybeans to be flipped in the weekly pan!We have entered into acceptance with a previous range's value and also got rejected into its POC. Up next is the VAL as the support
Presented are two setups. 7.17 short and 7.09 long.
Soybean Oil : A potential bull phasePrice retreated 0.786% of the entire bull run and confluence with wave C supporting at 0.618 of wave A presents a call for closer scrutiny. The upswing displayed a 5 wave overlapping sequence which can be interpreted as a leading diagonal wave 1. Implication is highly probable bullish.
A third attempt breakout above the trendline retreated back under the trendline was a wet blanket. However, market appears intact. A move above 49.16 will increase the probability further upside.
Soybean Oil - 50 years chart, what do you see?Let's look at Fibonacci levels. The attached chart, on a logarithmic scale, spans over 50 years - that's huge! The market just bounced from the 61.8% level, confirming that the bulls are still alive. Let's switch to a lower timeframe in the next post to see if anything interesting is happening there.
Soybean Oil - ultra big pictureSoybean Oil:
- 1970-1974: Prices rose from $8.6 to $48 = ~ 450% increase
- 1974-2000: Sideways movement between $15-$40
- 2000-2008: Bull market, prices surged from $15 to $70 = ~ 350% increase
- 2008-2020: Retracement to $25
- 2020-2022: Another bull market, prices went up from $25 to $87 = ~ 250% increase
- 2022-2024: Retracement to $38
But has the retracement ended? You never know, but at some point, it will, and current price levels are quite interesting. Check the next message for more
Soybean Oil // bearish expansion phaseAll 3 major timeframes (MN, W, D) are bearish, and the market is in a short expansion phase.
The idea is valid while the daily is waving south.
GoldMonday I talked about a number of markets here but I focused on the gold market because it took a $9000 reversal lower. this really is not a big deal but there are ways that you can spend your time efficiently make trade decisions that will be beneficial for you..... in this particular case if you'd use the 2 bar reversal Not only would you have gotten out of a long trade but you might even consider a long trade..... depending on whether or not you think like a buyer or a seller. I ran out of time on this video and it was a little sloppy at the end of the video.... I will try to make amends for that when I have time.
