FOMC Support and Resistance Levels To Watch For 2025Below are my FOMC levels I have mapped out. Prices move SOLELY from FOMC releases.
This is a concept I first discovered last year and since then, have still been perfecting it.
I want to see the July FOMC hold as a short term support level before rallying into the September FOMC as resistance for the pullback dump.
Ultimately, I am looking for January 2024 FOMC to hold as the next major long term bottom before breaking out into the 48,000-50,000s
Below I will post screenshots of how FOMC levels are used as I am not good explaining. Take the time to study these charts and see for yourself that Dow Jones makes it's price action based on the releases of FOMC.
Protected Levels:
Levels that do not get touched and are defended.
Resistance Levels:
Support Levels:
And of course, the biggest support level used with the April dump right into May 2023 FOMC
Mean Reversion Levels:
These levels even work intra day. Take a look below to see how well these are respected.
MYMH2026 trade ideas
June FOMC Pullback to 43,000Using my FOMC levels, I am expecting a pullback back down to 43,000 to mitigate some orders and to find support. What am I basing this on? I am basing this on the huge gap between prices from June FOMC and July FOMC.
Below is the 8-hour chart showing my thought process
Here are examples of this price gap return
My long-term thesis is to use the top FOMC releases as resistance and when price does breakout into the 50k's, will turn them into major support
Daytrading Setup NY High of Day Dump Buy Low of Day TutorialOne of my favorite setups that I love to trade is the range day's New York High of Day dump buying Low of Day. This setup does not require ANY "top down" analysis and only requires the 15-minute chart. All you need is to wait a couple hours after NY opened and run its course.
By waiting, you accomplish a few things
1. Avoid getting faked out
2. Get to see the day's ATR
3. Ability to calculate the day's position size better
4. Buy near the low of day, targeting the full daily range
Below is the setup and the ideal entry point. One thing I have learned over the years is to never chase giant candles. The market will always give the best entry with the smallest possible candle.
Step One: 30 minutes before the open of New York
Mark the Daily Opening Price
Find and mark the initial low of day
Since you want to be buying the low of day, don't worry too much about the initial high of day. You are looking for the New York's high of day.
Initial HOD/LOD = Highs and Lows placed before NY
New York HOD/LOD = Highs and Lows made by NY
Step Two: Let NY open and do its thing. You are waiting for the NY HOD to be put in place.
How do you know when NY has put in it's High of Day? You wait for a swing point.
Step Three: Mark NY's High of Day
Step Four: Wait until price dumps down and takes out the initial Low of Day. You want to be buying as close to the lows as you can. Never get caught buying the highs of day.
Step Five: Mark the new NY Low of Day
Step Six: Wait for your entry
How will you know what the specific entry will be to enter? You won't 100% but what will help guide you is to not enter on giant bars.
Step Seven: Plan and Execute the trade
There are many variations of this setup and it is up to you to study and recognize the small differences. The market is not going to make it easy for you.
Two biggest tips is one, buy near the NY low of day and two, never chase giant candles. Wait for small bull candles near the low.
Another tip. If your high of day target has not been hit before NY closes, the best course of action is to set up a Good till Canceled bracket order and hold overnight until target hit. Taking small, partial profits will blow your account. You need full winners. The edge holding overnight is too good to close your trade at the NY close. Hold overnight.
Dow Jones - Looking To Sell Pullbacks In The Short TermH4 - Strong bearish move.
Uptrend line breakout.
No opposite signs.
Currently it looks like a pullback is happening.
Expecting bearish continuation after pullback until the strong resistance zone holds.
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YM 10/13I went a little overkill with the levels.
Black = last year and this year so far high, low, and median ranges
pink = monthly high, low, and median ranges
grey = weekly levels
red = daily
orange = 4hr
yellow = 1hr
blue = 15min levels
Inv. levels are resistance
BS / FS levels are support with different static expectations: BackSide levels should have a strong reaction to price while FrontSide levels should support price until accumulation candles can start engulfing to cause a reversal trend.
if, those expecations dont happen within 3-5 mins on a lower timeframe, they aren't happening on a higher timeframe without risk so exit and find a different range, untested level to target or wait until the correct candles begin forming after the level tests to re-enter.
These 4 candles (2 in the accumulation ranges, 2 in the distribution ranges) create 6 levels that paint a story. I don't mark the swingHigh or SwingLow's and favor the FS and inv.FS levels which reduce risk.
YM 10/10The T.A paints the picture.
INV. levels. are resistance unless solid lines.
FS / BS levels are support unless solid lines
1x dotted are tested
2x dotted. are Origin levels where Trends originate from; a vertices in the fractals of time.
Each level is color coded to the timeframe the candle was found on.
Strength favors the higher timeframes
Pink = month
grey = week
red = day
orange - 4hr
yellow - 1 hr
15min - blue
5min - green
YM 10/7Highest timeframes are strongest
Weekly = grey
4hr = orange
1hr = yellow
15min = blue
5min = green
Inverse levels marked INV. FS or INV.BS are resistance levels unless solid lines
FS or BS levels are support unless solid lines
BS levels have an expectation to have a strong reaction to price while FS levels hold price stable until a reversal can occur. IF those expectations aren't being met in the first 5mins on a 1min timeframe, THEN price is likely targeting a different range/level and or liquidity is not there.
End of Year GameplanPrice is currently in a bullish spike and grind channel. Price is moving 1200 ticks up and 800 ticks down in a grindy up and down bullish trend. Friday, August 22nd was the breakout from the July range and since then, has now been grinding.
800 ticks down from the recent high would put Dow in the park around 46,300 or so. This would mean we are in a counter trend pullback phase with a couple of down days.
After the pullback, 1200 ticks higher would put Dow around 47,750 or so.
With the final quarter of 2025 upon us, I am curious where it will close at. So far it has been a choppy year.
Our current price action reminds me of late 2020, early 2021. Just a grinding march higher and a complete chop fest.
YM - 10/6Pink = Monthly timeframe levels
Grey = weekly
Red = Daily
Orange = 4hr
Yellow = 1hr
Inv. levels are resistance
BS or FS levels are support with different expectations. BS = strong reaction to price. FS = Slow reaction to price, creates an accumulation trend and candles.
If/ they statements guide my thinking. If The nearest 1hr BS level is tested, then is should have a strong reaction to price. If not, then the frontside candle will be targeted to create trend. If not, then a lower range, trend or level is being targeted.
If candles of support / resistance are not formed in 3-5mins then exit and find a better entry.
Dow Jones Index Faces Critical Resistance Amid Market Vol.
Current Price: $46758.28
Direction: SHORT
Targets:
- T1 = $45900
- T2 = $45100
Stop Levels:
- S1 = $46950
- S2 = $47200
**Wisdom of Professional Traders:**
This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, emphasizing the importance of identifying critical resistance levels and downside risk. Professional traders have recently highlighted bearish signals in Dow Jones, driven by waning momentum in broader equity indices and key macroeconomic factors. Collective intelligence from market specialists suggests increasing caution as the Dow approaches resistance levels, with signs of profit-taking keeping downward pressure on short-term price action.
**Key Insights:**
Dow Jones currently faces headwinds stemming from macroeconomic uncertainty, including higher-than-expected interest rate levels and tightening credit markets. The Federal Reserve has signaled a ‘higher for longer’ approach to interest rates, challenging equities broadly as borrowing costs surge. Traders are also focused on the elevated valuation of industrial and blue-chip stocks within the Dow, suggesting limited upside without significant earnings surprises in upcoming Q3 reports.
Technically, the index is battling resistance at the $47000 level, a key psychological barrier. Momentum indicators such as the RSI and MACD are showing bearish divergences, adding downward pressure. Fibonacci retracement levels also reflect potential downside to key price targets near $45900 and $45100—consistent with medium-term chart patterns suggesting further pullback before a possible consolidation phase.
**Recent Performance:**
In recent sessions, Dow Jones has shown mixed performance, fluctuating between $46500 and $47000 amid volatile trading conditions. While the index experienced a brief rally following improved manufacturing data in late September 2025, weak employment growth and persistent inflation concerns have brought renewed selling pressure. Notably, industrial stocks underperformed compared to tech-heavy indices such as the NASDAQ, indicating risk aversion among traders in the current climate.
**Expert Analysis:**
Technical analysts point to deteriorating momentum on daily and weekly charts. The MACD histogram has crossed into negative territory for the first time since mid-June, signaling bearish sentiment. Additionally, the Average True Range (ATR) has widened, implying increased volatility—often indicative of bearish moves in major indices. Sectoral weaknesses in key Dow components, including construction machinery and pharmaceuticals, are applying further downward drag. With liquidity tightening and earnings season likely producing mixed outcomes, market sentiment leans toward defensive positioning.
**News Impact:**
Economic news continues to weigh heavily on the Dow. Last week’s hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted at additional rate hikes in late Q4 2025, unsettling investors. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in Asia and the Middle East have surged, adding risk premiums and dampening optimism for industrial growth. Corporate earnings forecasts have also been downgraded for blue-chip firms such as 3M and Caterpillar, compounding broader market hesitations.
**Trading Recommendation:**
Considering current market dynamics and technical factors, a short position is advisable for Dow Jones. The index's inability to breach its $47000 resistance level combined with bearish signal patterns offers a high-probability setup for downside movement. Traders should aim for targets at $45900 and $45100, with stop levels set at $46950 and $47200 to mitigate risk from sudden volatility. This trade aligns with prevailing market sentiment and offers potential profits from retracement over the next few weeks.
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#DJI Futures Outlook: Key Levels to Watch Around Pivot 44,736Date: 14-07-2025
📊 Current Price: 44,645
📍 Pivot Point: 44,736.00
🔼 Upside / Bullish Scenario
If the price sustains above the pivot point (44,736), it could target the following resistance and bullish targets:
Immediate Resistance: 45,305.40
Target 1: 45,708.70
Target 2: 46,112.00
Target 3: 46,628.00
Target 4: 47,144.00
Bullish Bias Trigger: A break and hold above 45,305.40 increases confidence in these targets.
🔽 Downside / Bearish Scenario
If the price moves and holds below the pivot, the focus shifts to support levels and bearish targets:
Immediate Support: 44,170.04
Target 1: 43,765.02
Target 2: 43,360.00
Target 3: 42,844.00
Target 4: 42,328.00
Bearish Bias Trigger: A break below 44,170.04 opens the door to these downside levels.
#DowJones #TradingView #StockMarket #Investing #Trading #DJIFutures
#PivotPoints #DowJones #MarketOutlook #FuturesTrading
Non Farm Payroll IdeaThis post is mostly for myself and is for s.. and giggles. I am just curious how price will play out. I do not trade News Days but analyzing the chart, I am seeing price mean reverting around 750 and is bullish. Wednesday was the low of week. I am thinking Friday pullsback and ends the week at the highs.
This week is clearly in a bullish range bound weekly template.
YM 10/215min timeframe view
Color Coded to timeframe; strength favors higher timeframes
Monthly timeframe = Pink
Week = Grey
Day = Red
4hr = Orange
1hr = Yellow
15min = blue
The hourly distribution trend needs an hourly level to break. Could the Hourly Inv.BS level be the one? The current candle if closes blue will be the ladder forming to break the trend. We'll see. Hourly levels, trends activate the blue and orange timeframes.
YM 9/30Levels are marked on the screen and color coded to the timeframe they were created on.
Weekly box is grey and shows the high, low and median range.
The red box is a daily high, low and median from yesterday.
Orange levels are 4hr timeframe
yellow is the hourly timeframe and blue is the 15min timeframe.
Dow Jones Futures October Rangebound GameplanGoing into October, Dow Jones is in a clear 1000 tick range from 46,000 to 47,000. Because of this, I will be setting my trend following strategy aside and pulling out my range bound toolbox.
Step one when in a range, stay away from the middle. Look for swing points in the middle to be swept.
In a range, you want to play it safe. Let the market entice others to take positions, see where their stops are and trade into them. Below, I have marked where the money is at.
Below I have drawn price mean reverting around 500 and the best buys and sells are at the extremes. Taking positions near the middle is riskier. They want to entice you into a position near the middle to then sweep you up.
So how can you use this in real life? Below is the last trade I have taken off the 1 hour.
Waiting on a move up before the next BIG move down!Looking for a move back up to 46,600 area to see how price and volume react and if it looks weak then I'll look for shorts We have multiple confluence up there were sellers are sitting. Its a %50 retracement as well as a 1H FVG. This morning we traded up into a 4H zone and sold off and have multiple HTF bearish bias. There is External liquidity up at 46,785 but the way broke to the downside makes me want to wait till internal liquidity is swept down at 46,347 before we make that move up.