I've Cracked the Bullish Code on Dow 30 Using COTNot financial advice.
YM is setup for longs based on COT Commercial Positioning Extreme, Valuation, Sentiment & Seasonals.
MYM1! trade ideas
Updated Analysis Dow Jones 45,000 Resistance Bearish RangeLooking at the Daily chart, the entire range is from 42,000-46,000.
Price is bumping its head up against 45,000 multiple times and forming a bearish range.
Major support is down at the 2025 Open from 42,000-43,000.
It looks like one more pump up to around the 45,000 area before the dump.
8 Hour Chart
2 Hour Chart
15 Minute Chart and how selling at the top of the range around 45,000 has been occurring.
YM (March 2025) - Pay Close Attention To Dow JonesWhen comparing the three pairs; YM, NQ and ES, it is evident that the weekly lows has still not been made, indicating the weakness bears have to push price lower.
The mean threshold of the 6th Jan 2025 has been respected, indicating the potential for a short term retracement on the lower time frames back up into 43409 - 43024 weekly previous bullish order block.
The most important days to study is Sunday to Wednesday.
US30 FUTURES SELL SETUPI have a Monthly overall uptrend with a Weekly leg making a new higher high. However, at the top of that new higher high, The Daily TF failed to make a new higher high which may cause the start of the Weekly retest. So for now I have a Daily downtrend with a 15min retest to continue down towards $40,000. If I'm wrong, price will break and close above $42,946 and continue upwards towards the last high which is $44,000.
Dow Jones Volatility Daytrading AnalysisI am writing this post to organize my thoughts on ATR and Volatility.
I have noticed that there are three different phases of Volatility.
Low
Medium
High
Using the 1 period ATR on the Daily chart, the high to low movement indicates what kind of Volatility one can expect.
Low Volatility is when, on average, the daily high to low is around 300 ticks +/-
300 ticks is just a number. What I am looking for is the percentage. Low Volatility seems to be when the high/low movement of the day is around 0.50%-0.70% of the price of Dow Jones.
Example:
If Dow Jones is at 85,000, then 0.60% would be 510. Therefore, a low volatility day within this price range would be 510 ticks on average.
Because Dow Jones is at on average 44,000 then a low volatility day using 0.60% would be 265 ticks. This is in line with 300 ticks on average.
On the 15-minute time frame, using the 14 period ATR, I try to line up the peaks of the ATR values. In this case, it lines up to around 50 ticks.
This information is vital in knowing how big stop losses and targets should be. If a low volatility day is around 300 ticks, then does it make sense to go for 300 tick moves? Depending on your risk to reward preferences, you can use ATR in a myriad of ways.
I personally use 1.25 times the 15-minute peak ATR as this is my entry time frame. The peaks are on average 50 ticks. This would give me an ATR stop loss of 62.50. I would round it up to 65 ticks.
If I was to take this hypothetical trade, I would use the 65 ticks stop and using 2.5 risk to reward, I would use 165 tick targets.
If one would like to go for a 1 to 1, then they can use twice the peak ATR of 50 ( 100 ticks ) and go for 100 tick targets.
Medium Volatility is around 580-600 ticks on the daily chart, or 1.25% from high to low.
On the 15-minute chart, this would be 90 ticks using the peaks of the 14 period ATR.
Using 1.25 times the ATR, I would arrive at 115 ticks for stop loss and using 2.5 risk to reward, I would target 290 ticks. This would give the trade room to play out.
High Volatility is around 850 ticks and above. On the 15-minute chart, High volatility is 135 ticks. Using my same 1.25 time ATR, the stop loss would be 170 ticks and the target 425 ticks, using 2.5 risk to reward.
If I were to take this hypothetical trade, and even having a not-so-great entry, using a 170 tick stop loss would allow me to take some heat on the trade but still stay in. Going for 2.5R, I would target 425 ticks.
Taking this other hypothetical trade, one could still be in the trade and achieve the profit goal without getting pinged out by wicks.
This allows a trader to not have the pressures of being so pinpoint accurate on their entries and to allow a trade to play out without getting pinged off the trade. We are not brain surgeons and therefore, do not need to be highly accurate and precise. You can be an average trader with good technical skills and still achieve success.
Using the ATR indicator is an art form and is not rigid in its application. You have to use judgement calls when reading the numbers. It is not a fool proof indicator and sometimes you will under or overcompensate what number to use.
I hope this post was helpful for anybody and feel free to leave comments down below on your thoughts. Thank you.
Will Dow Jones Extend Its Selloff?I believe Dow Jones still has more downside ahead. I anticipate a break below 42,200 tomorrow morning, potentially taking out more of January’s lows.
If price rises overnight, I’ll be looking for a Short position at the 8:30 CST open. If it doesn’t, I’ll likely go Long toward the dump initiation zone around 43,160 .
Alternatively, we could potentially begin the sell from 2025 Open Price.
Only time will tell—let’s lock in⚡
YM (March 2025) - End of February Analysis- Closed out this month bearish, tickling all time highs but with more uncertainty than ever before. Februarys price range closed inside the previous monthly range
- 42605 bullish monthly order block in my scopes
- Playing the short term ranges going into March is the best solution as the monthly timeframe is indecisive
Bearish Entries 15 Minute Time Frame I am making this post for my own improvement of my entries. If this helps anyone else, then that is a plus as well.
Entry Type 1:
Bearish Engulfments
These types of entries are when NY opens and spikes right through the High of day and engulfs a high bull bar.
Entry Type 1:
Bearish Pullbacks
These types of entries are when NY opens after a move has happened and you are waiting for a better price
March 2025 Gameplan Another Resting Doji Bar Bearish BiasUsing the monthly chart, I am looking at another bearish month of consolidation. I expect a wick up to February's open in orange and a wick down to January's Low. I then expect a close around 2025's Open at 42,929.
I then expect May to be a monstrous month taking out all of this consolidation and continuing the bullish trend.
I am looking for price to slow down into the 2025 yearly open.
If you look at the monthly candles, February did not take out the high of January. Nor do I expect March to take out the high of February. I DO expect March to take out the Lows of February and January.
I am expecting price to go up first, create the wick but not take out February's high, sell down to take out January's low and rally back up to close at 43,000. A bearish Doji
Dow Jones Bullish Setup for a Friday Dump?We've swept today's lows while also establishing a new high. This sets the stage for a strong buyback toward the 44,000 level, where we previously dumped last Friday. I am eyeing the areas around 43,470 & 43,562 as potential opening structures.
With high-impact news closing out both the week and the month, we should see some solid volatility—presenting prime opportunities to capitalize on market moves. Let’s lock in⚡
Its too early to tell, but I am anticipating a crazy dump on Friday that will take us back to 2025 Open price.
DOW shorts, when ES NQ f. aroundTradingview doesn't show executions but most positions are already taken of and remaining will be adjsuted accordingly. Partial will be taken right on that wick/low and the remaining will be left as runner to see if we can take out the low in H4 tf. SMT with indices, rejection from H4 FVG and invalidation of 15m Bullish FVG.
Dow Jones Possibly Setting Up Double Bottom Low For MarchIf I see a double bottom low forming at the beginning of the new month of March, then this will confirm that there is no dump coming and the highs of February will get taken.
The support from January CPI is holding so far.
Because of this Giant range around 44,000, any dumps seem to be getting bought up.
2025 will be a very ranging year and probably challenging to trade.
Dow Jones Bullish Pullback 2/25I'm looking to take a Long position at the 8:30 AM open tomorrow. I've drawn out two key setups that would confirm my bullish outlook above.
Ideally, we open within the 43,505 - 43,575 range, setting up a strong buying opportunity.
The Daily formed a nice doji candle to close out Monday, so I am really confident that we will see some nice bullish action tomorrow morning.
Just throwing ideas out there, I won't really know anything for certain until around 7am.
Lets collect these ticks⚡
February Closing In Down Month End of Month ShortI will be watching this last bearish candle and how price pullsback into it. I am looking at the daily chart for a doji day and a rolling over of price action. I am expecting it to be near the end of the month. There is only 5 trading days left of February.
Thursday broke out and closed below the last 6 days.
I am letting the market set up and waiting.
Currently, I am up 5% in February. I feel that this is too little of return for the amount of effort I have put in. I believe I am doing too much. I need to hit one or two monster trades in a month with little stress. Hit the trades that are all day holds that the market has no intentions of coming back. Why would I do anything else in between?
Jim Rogers famous quote that really resonated with me,
" I wait until there is money lying in the corner and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime "
My trade management approach is using a 100 tick stop after entry, no profit target and hold to the close. I take only the one trade in that day. One loss Max per trading day.
To have the best trading results, paradoxically, one must not trade. Less is more. I am guilty in this. I struggle with an alpha mindset where upon if I am not taking action, then I am not advancing my goals. Although I am a profitable trader, my results could be ten times by doing less.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-21 : Top Pattern Counter TrendToday's Top pattern in Counter-Trend mode suggests the markets will attempt to move downward, seeking a new support level, then find a base and attempt to roll a bit higher.
I don't expect a big breakdown to take place today, but the YM is already struggling to maintain support - so we may see the ES/NQ break downward if the major markets continue to weaken throughout the day.
I do expect the markets to move into my Major Bottom pattern over the next 3-5+ trading days. So, overall, I expect the markets to reject these recent highs and attempt to move downward.
Gold and Silver should continue to rally with Gold trying to break above $3k and silver trying to break above $35.
Bitcoin is moving into an early stage Excess Phase Peak flagging formation. This should prompt a fairly solid rally phase for Bitcoin over the next few days/weeks.
If my longer-term research is correct, the recent new highs will be rejected and price will roll into a double-bottom type of setup between now and the end of March 2025.
I suspect traders are not prepared for this move and will continue to try to BUY any dip they see over the next 30+ days.
My only advice is to play the short-term trends and avoid position or swing trading too heavily.
The markets are going to become very volatile over the next 30+ days.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
Dow Jones Buy Trade Triggered Now Long 2 Hour ChartTriggered now, is a Long trade at 44,260-275. I currently am Long now at 44.260 using the 2-hour chart. I am using a fixed 125 tick stop and a fixed 500 tick target for a 4 to 1.
If you enter this trade as well, risk appropriately and realize that any trade can fail.
8 Hour Doji forming
2 Hour what I am thinking. A basing near the highs of this candle before a breakout higher
Anticipating a Down Doji Year 2025 Closing Near 42,000I am anticipating a down doji year of 2025 with the high being put in place now. I am expecting a deep pullback to 40,000, followed by a sharp rally back up to the 2025 open of 43,000 and a slow, retracement to close the year at 42,000.
This will give the year a -2.5% return this year.
2026 I am expecting a massive bullish year after this doji year. I am expecting price to open at 42,000 and rip to 48,000-50,000.
Price needs to consolidate, rest and build up strength for the next major rip. 2025, I believe, is not it. One of the biggest clues for me is the post-election exhaustion candle right into the highs and the fact is has little to no follow through. It is THE BIGGEST bar since 2023.
40,000 just happens to be 50% of this move higher
Using the Daily ATR Volatility, you can see volatility has been increasing in the current up channel. Yes, this is a lagging indicator but when it gets back up to the 780 mark, the low will be nearly in place. Let us see if this lines up with the start of 2026
Overall, this is my gameplan for the next two years and I am holding firm until it is invalidated on me.
In summary,
Selling off of 45,000 to dump down to 40,000 in a range consolidation year. Choppy and Whippy. 2025 a doji year.
2026 opens strong and rips to 48,000-50,000
