Trade ideas
US100 Trading Plan ¦ Layering Strategy + Macro Sentiment Drivers🚀 NASDAQ100 / US100 Index – Thief Money Heist Plan 🎭
📌 Plan: Bullish Swing / Scalping Setup
Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s), here’s the heist-style breakdown for US100 🔑:
🏴☠️ Entry Style (Thief Layering Strategy)
Using layered limit orders for flexibility & precision:
• 23200.0
• 23250.0
• 23300.0
• 23350.0
(You may increase limit layers based on your strategy & risk appetite)
📉 Moving Average Pullback Entry Plan
• Buy entries on pullbacks to the Fibo level 382 Triangular Moving average zone.
• Look for bullish candles confirming the bounce from these MAs.
• This offers better risk-to-reward by catching momentum on retracements instead of chasing highs.
❓ Why This Works?
• Moving averages often act as dynamic support/resistance in trending markets.
• Institutional traders & algos track them heavily, making them high-probability zones.
• Combining with layering entries = higher flexibility + reduced risk of mistimed single entry.
🛡️ Stop Loss (Protect the Vault)
• Thief SL: @23000.0
• Reminder: Adjust your SL based on your own strategy & risk tolerance.
🎯 Target (Escape Zone)
• Overbought + Trap Zone ahead!
• Escape target: @23750.0
• Note: Don’t rely only on my TP — secure profits at your own pace and risk.
📊 US100 Index CFD Real-Time Data Sep 03
📈 Daily Change: +133.47 (+0.57%)
📅 Monthly Performance: +0.76%
📆 Yearly Performance: +23.48%
😰😊 Fear & Greed Index
📊 Current Reading: 53/100 (Neutral)
🧐 Interpretation: Market sentiment is balanced, showing neither extreme fear nor greed. Investors are cautious but not panicked.
🧠 Retail vs. Institutional Sentiment
👥 Retail Traders: Moderately bullish (55% Long, 45% Short)
🏦 Institutional Traders: Slightly cautious (50% Long, 50% Short)
🔑 Key Drivers: Mixed signals from manufacturing data and upcoming labor market reports.
📉📈 Fundamental & Macro Score
📊 Macro Score: 6/10
Manufacturing PMI (48.7) still in contraction but improving.
Labor market data (JOLTS) awaited for clarity.
⚡ Volatility Score: 5/10 (Moderate)
VIX near average levels, indicating stable expectations.
💧 Liquidity Score: 7/10
Strong volume and breadth in large-cap tech stocks.
🐂🐻 Overall Market Outlook
✅ Bullish (Long): 60%
Supported by strong yearly gains and resilience in big tech.
⚠️ Bearish (Short): 40%
Concerns over manufacturing contraction and inflation pressures.
💡 Key Takeaways
📈 US100 is trending mildly positive today (+0.57%).
😐 Sentiment is neutral—no extreme fear or greed.
📊 Macro data hints at cautious optimism but watch for upcoming labor reports.
🐂 Overall bias leans slightly bullish for long-term holders.
📊 Related Pairs to Watch
FOREXCOM:SPX500
TVC:DJI
TVC:VIX
NASDAQ:NDX
FX:USDOLLAR
✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!”
#NASDAQ100 #US100 #NDX #SPX500 #DJI #TradingView #SwingTrade #ScalpTrading #LayeringStrategy #MarketAnalysis
Nas100 Trade Set Up Oct 6 2025Price is bullish making HH/HL on the 1h and has swept PDH so i am overall bullish. I would want to see price trade into the 1h FVG, respect it and form internal 1m bullish structure to look for buys or trade higher above recent swing highs, sweep internal SSL and go higher
www.tradingview.com
US100: Strong resistance sell setup on the 30-minute chart
📈 SKILLING:US100 — Technical Analysis: Sell Setup Near Strong Resistance
🔍 Technical Analysis:
• Currently, US100 price is approaching a significant resistance zone (highlighted in red). This area has acted as a strong ceiling in recent sessions, where sellers tend to emerge.
• The price has rallied back after a sharp decline but is showing signs of slowing momentum as it nears this resistance. This often leads to a rejection rather than a clean breakout, especially on a 30-minute timeframe.
• Below, the light blue zones represent key support levels, which could serve as realistic targets if sellers regain control. These zones are important areas where buyers previously stepped in, creating potential bounce points.
• The drawn dashed lines illustrate a possible price path: a test of the resistance level, failure to break higher, followed by a pullback and continuation of the downward trend.
• For confirmation of the sell setup, traders should look for reversal candlestick patterns such as rejection wicks (long upper shadows), bearish engulfing candles, or pin bars at the resistance zone. These signals help validate that sellers are gaining dominance.
• Volume and momentum indicators should also be monitored for divergence or weakening bullish pressure near resistance to strengthen the case for a sell.
📊 Trade Considerations:
• Entering a sell position should be done only after clear confirmation of price rejection at resistance.
• Setting a stop loss slightly above the resistance zone helps manage risk in case of a false breakout.
• Targets can be placed near the support zones (light blue areas), with partial profit-taking to lock gains while allowing some position to run if price reacts there.
📌 Summary:
The technical structure of US100 on the 30-minute chart suggests a high probability of price reversal from the strong resistance area. A cautious sell setup is favored, waiting for confirming price action signals to reduce risk. Proper risk management is essential to navigate potential volatility near this key level.
Please like and comment below to support our traders. Your reactions will motivate us to do more analysis in the future 🙏✨
Harry Andrew @ ZuperView
NAS100 - Stock Market on Federal Holiday!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour time frame and is in its long-term ascending channel. If the upward momentum decreases, we can expect a correction to the demand zones and buy Nasdaq in that range with an appropriate reward for the risk.
Traders in prediction markets now estimate that the U.S. federal government shutdown could last more than a week and potentially extend into mid-October. These projections suggest that Washington’s political environment has reached a deadlock, making a swift agreement in Congress increasingly unlikely.
The shutdown began early Wednesday morning after Democrats and Republicans—along with President Donald Trump—failed to reach a compromise on a temporary funding bill. As a result, hundreds of thousands of federal employees have been placed on unpaid leave, and numerous government programs and public services have been suspended.
According to data from Bank of America, since 1990, U.S. government shutdowns have lasted an average of 14 days. Although the S&P 500 has typically risen about 1% during such periods, an extended impasse could weigh heavily on an already fragile economy and markets near record highs.
The credit rating agency Fitch stated that the current shutdown will not have a direct impact on the United States’ credit rating, which remains at AA+ with a stable outlook. However, the agency noted that repeated reliance on short-term funding resolutions reflects persistent weaknesses in U.S. fiscal governance. Still, Fitch expects the U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency to remain intact in the near future.
Fitch also added that a short-lived shutdown is unlikely to affect most public-finance credits, though a prolonged one could pose negative risks for bond issuers—particularly those dependent on federal funding in areas such as healthcare, housing, and higher education.
Meanwhile, UBS argued that concerns over the U.S. government shutdown have been overstated, predicting that its economic impact will be limited and short-lived. The bank advised investors to look beyond political noise and instead focus on Federal Reserve rate cuts, corporate earnings, and opportunities in artificial intelligence.
Economists at Citi expect the Federal Reserve to implement two 25-basis-point rate cuts in October and December, in line with its Dot Plot projections. However, the shutdown could delay access to key labor and inflation data, forcing investors to rely more heavily on private sources such as ADP reports.
Similarly, Bank of America forecasts a rate cut in October but notes that markets have already priced in this outcome, assigning a 95% probability for October and 85% for December. In essence, this projection merely aligns with the consensus that has already formed among traders.
In actual market developments, expectations have shifted back toward easing policies. Over the past two weeks, the hawkish pressure that had supported the dollar has eased, and markets are once again pricing in a lower-rate trajectory. Currently, about 105 basis points of rate cuts are priced in for next year, compared with a previous low of 94 basis points—a shift that favors equities while weighing on the dollar.
According to Daniel Pavilonis, senior commodities broker at RJO Futures, the government shutdown will not significantly impair the Fed’s ability to assess labor market conditions. “The Fed relies more on its proprietary datasets than on official government statistics,” he explained. “Even amid a shutdown, policymakers maintain a fairly accurate picture of the economy.”
After a week dominated by employment data—some released and others delayed due to the shutdown—the upcoming week is expected to be relatively quiet for official U.S. economic releases unless a resolution is reached.Instead, market attention will pivot toward remarks from Federal Reserve officials.
On Wednesday, the minutes of the September FOMC meeting will be released, offering deeper insight into policymakers’ views on the rate path and inflation risks. Then, on Friday, the University of Michigan’s preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index for October will shed light on household perceptions of the economy and their financial conditions—a key gauge for domestic demand strength.
In addition, investors will closely monitor speeches from several Fed officials, including Bostic, Bowman, Miran, Kashkari, Barr, and Musalem. Their comments could directly influence market expectations for monetary policy and shape trading sentiment in the days ahead.
$NDX $SPX $BTC All Close at Weekly ATHPretty cool to see ₿itcoin, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all close the week at new ATH 🥳
And now we have $325B about to be dumped into the US economy in FY26Q1 along with more rate cuts on the way.
Next time you speak to a bear, reply with FU HIGHER 🚀
Potential Sell IdeaLooking for a potential sell once it hits the trend line and we get a third tap
Be patient to wait to confirm if it will break the trend line and double tap a fib before it sells
NASDAQ Hits Historic High – 3 Key Scenarios for the Trading Day🚀 NASDAQ Weekly & Daily Update 🚀
Nasdaq is currently in a strongly bullish trend, and this week marks a significant historic high. Most likely, we’ll see the index touch 25,500. Both the weekly and daily round levels are perfectly aligned, as it has just broken its previous high.
For the upcoming trading day, I’m considering 3 potential scenarios:
1️⃣ Scenario 1: Price may initially move downwards, gathering liquidity at the New York session low, then correct, and after touching the Pro Key level, rebound upwards.
2️⃣ Scenario 2: Price might move upwards first, hit the order block that aligns with the daily pivot, then retrace downwards to collect liquidity, and finally, after touching the Pro Key level, move upwards.
3️⃣ Scenario 3: Price might not reach the Pro Key level directly, react at the upper order block, break it, and continue strongly upwards.
💡 Key Points:
Each scenario’s price reaction depends heavily on the session.
Using the AMD concept, positions can be taken once confirmation is received.
This analysis is valid until the end of the trading day, so always wait for confirmation before entering trades and manage your capital.
⚠️ Disclaimer: All trading decisions are your responsibility.
I’d love to hear your thoughts and see your analysis! Let’s grow and learn together! 🙌
#NASDAQ #TradingView
Naz 100 updatedDirection a tad uncertain
Seems to be alot of swearing and fighting around 24600 area.Sellets would wamt that to break and become resistance
US100 BEST PLACE TO SELL FROM|SHORT
US100 SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 24,768.0
Target Level: 24,035.6
Stop Loss: 25,254.9
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1D
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Trend-Following + Donchian Breakout (Regime Visualizer)Most traders chase trends too late or exit too early.
Quant systems don’t predict — they measure and adapt.
This educational chart uses the public Quant Trend + Donchian indicator to visualize how trend-following and breakout logic can define market regimes in NASDAQ 100 & S&P 500.
⚙️ Core Logic
• Trend — EMA(64 vs 256): approximates EWMAC trend state.
• Breakout — Donchian (200): identifies volatility-based range breaks.
• Volatility awareness — internally normalized to adjust behavior across markets.
📊 How to read it
• EMA fast > EMA slow and price near Donchian high → bullish trend regime.
• EMA fast < EMA slow and price near Donchian low → bearish regime.
• Inside channel with EMAs tangled → range or noise.
💡 Key insight
Regime definition + volatility scaling > entry cleverness.
Systems survive not by prediction, but by risk-controlled persistence .
This public view illustrates the foundations used in my more advanced risk-scaled quant strategies for NASDAQ and S&P indices.
#Quant #TrendFollowing #Breakout #Donchian #EMA #NASDAQ #SP500 #SystematicTrading #AlgorithmicTrading #Volatility
NAS100 1H🔹 Overall Outlook and Potential Price Movements
In the charts above, we have outlined the overall outlook and possible price movement paths.
As shown, each analysis highlights a key support or resistance zone near the current market price. The market’s reaction to these zones — whether a breakout or rejection — will likely determine the next direction of the price toward the specified levels.
⚠️ Important Note:
The purpose of these trading perspectives is to identify key upcoming price levels and assess potential market reactions. The provided analyses are not trading signals in any way.
✅ Recommendation for Use:
To make effective use of these analyses, it is advised to manually draw the marked zones on your chart. Then, on the 15-minute time frame, monitor the candlestick behavior and look for valid entry triggers before making any trading decisions.
$nas updateGot taken out as of late!!!
No problem 😉
Here’s the get back on steroids!!!!
We shouldn’t see $24,535 at this point. This plays low end & MAX!!!!
Targets from the original post remains steady and I will be cloning that same profile for a second setup this week.
The current cycle of $25,335 is begging for candles & I’m looking to run this over with leverage!!!!!
$24,702 is crucial to p.a this week and will definitely make a jump on targets if sustained above on closures.
Therefore, first profile presented…
Three points for layering:
-$24,714, 659 & 610..
Again, $24,535 should be clear with that last low, BUT I am willing to allow a 4h closure if we price there.
$25,653.8 is the extension for full targets!!
Blessings to all!!!
Let’s put on another great week! 😎🫶🏽
US100: Long Signal with Entry/SL/TP
US100
- Classic bullish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Buy US100
Entry - 24770
Stop - 24724
Take - 24853
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
NAS LONG SETUP Nas broke into a new level again.Before market close last week,it manage to find some resistance around 25.016. A retrace to previously broken level is expected to also touch the trendline confirming the continuing uptrend
NASDAQ 100 Technical Analysis & ForecastNASDAQ 100 (NAS100) Technical Analysis & Forecast
Current Price: 24,781.00 | Date: October 4, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4
📊 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The NASDAQ 100 is currently trading at 24,781.00, showing resilience near all-time highs. This comprehensive analysis integrates multiple technical frameworks to provide actionable insights for both intraday and swing traders navigating the tech-heavy index.
Key Takeaway: NAS100 exhibits a cautious bullish bias with critical support at 24,650 and resistance at 25,100. Traders should monitor for potential consolidation before the next directional move.
🔍 MULTI-TIMEFRAME TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Monthly & Weekly Outlook (Swing Trading Perspective)
Long-term Trend Assessment:
Primary Trend: Bullish structure remains intact with higher highs and higher lows established since Q4 2024
Elliott Wave Count: The index appears to be in Wave 5 of a larger impulse structure from the 2022 lows, suggesting a mature bull cycle
Ichimoku Cloud (Weekly): Price trading above the cloud with Tenkan-sen (9-period) above Kijun-sen (26-period), confirming bullish momentum
Key Weekly Levels:
Major Resistance: 25,200 - 25,350 (psychological level and prior consolidation zone)
Major Support: 24,200 - 24,350 (former resistance turned support, 20-week EMA)
Critical Support: 23,500 (50-week EMA, must hold for bull trend continuation)
Gann Analysis:
Square of 9 calculation from recent lows suggests the next significant price target at 25,088 (45° angle)
Time cycle analysis indicates potential volatility window October 8-12, 2025
Price-time squaring suggests equilibrium at current levels, with break expected by mid-October
Daily Chart Analysis (Swing & Position Trading)
Trend & Momentum:
50-day SMA: 24,420 (acting as dynamic support)
200-day SMA: 23,680 (long-term trend anchor)
RSI (14): Currently at 64, showing bullish momentum without overbought conditions
MACD: Positive histogram with signal line above zero, indicating upward momentum
Chart Patterns Identified:
Ascending Triangle Formation: Consolidation between 24,650 support and 25,100 resistance suggests a bullish continuation pattern
Wyckoff Analysis: Signs of re-accumulation phase (Trading Range) after the spring rally, indicating smart money positioning
Harmonic Patterns:
Potential Bullish Bat pattern completing near 24,650, with PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone) offering strong support
Fibonacci retracement from recent swing shows 61.8% level at 24,580, aligning with multiple support factors
Volume Profile:
VWAP (Anchored from Sept 1): 24,695 - price maintaining above VWAP indicates institutional buying
Volume Analysis: Above-average volume on up days suggests strong bullish participation
High Volume Node (HVN): 24,750-24,800 represents fair value area
4-Hour Chart (Transitional Timeframe)
Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: Price trading in upper band (24,950), suggesting near-term overbought conditions but strong trend
RSI (14): 68 - approaching overbought but no bearish divergence yet
Stochastic Oscillator: %K at 82, %D at 76 - overbought territory, watch for crossover
Ichimoku System:
Price above cloud (bullish)
Lagging span above price (confirming bullish sentiment)
Cloud ahead is thin, suggesting potential resistance at 25,050-25,100
Support & Resistance:
Immediate Resistance: 24,950 → 25,100 (psychological and technical confluence)
Immediate Support: 24,650 → 24,500 (previous consolidation and EMA cluster)
1-Hour Chart (Intraday Swing Reference)
Short-term Momentum:
20 EMA: 24,745
50 EMA: 24,680
100 EMA: 24,620
Price trading above all key EMAs indicates short-term bullish control
Candlestick Patterns:
Recent formation of bullish engulfing patterns on hourly suggests buying pressure
No immediate reversal patterns detected
Warning Signs:
Potential Bear Trap: If price briefly breaks below 24,650 with low volume, expect quick recovery (trap for shorts)
Bull Trap Risk: Break above 25,100 without volume confirmation could reverse quickly
📈 INTRADAY TRADING STRATEGY (Week of October 4-11, 2025)
15-Minute & 30-Minute Chart Focus
Monday-Tuesday Bias: Consolidation expected between 24,650-24,950
Long Entry Strategies:
Setup 1: Support Bounce Play
Entry Zone: 24,650-24,700
Stop Loss: 24,580 (below harmonic PRZ)
Target 1: 24,850 (Risk:Reward 1:2)
Target 2: 24,950 (Risk:Reward 1:3.5)
Confirmation: RSI (15-min) oversold below 30, bullish candlestick reversal pattern
Setup 2: Breakout Play
Entry: Break and retest of 24,950 with volume
Stop Loss: 24,870
Target 1: 25,050
Target 2: 25,150 (ascending triangle measured move)
Confirmation: Volume 20% above average, 15-min candle close above 24,950
Setup 3: VWAP Reversion
Entry: Price touches VWAP (currently ~24,695) from above on 5-min chart
Stop Loss: 24,650
Target: 24,800-24,850
Confirmation: Volume spike on touch, bullish divergence on 5-min RSI
Short Entry Strategies:
Setup 1: Resistance Rejection
Entry Zone: 25,050-25,100
Stop Loss: 25,150
Target 1: 24,850
Target 2: 24,700
Confirmation: Bearish engulfing or shooting star on 15-min chart, RSI divergence
Setup 2: Failed Breakout (Bull Trap)
Entry: Price breaks 25,100 but closes back below within 2 candles (15-min)
Stop Loss: 25,130
Target: 24,800
Confirmation: High volume on breakout but no follow-through
🎯 SWING TRADING STRATEGY (October-November 2025)
Bullish Scenario (60% Probability)
Primary Strategy: Ascending Triangle Breakout
Entry Plan:
Aggressive Entry: Current levels (24,780) with tight risk management
Conservative Entry: Pullback to 24,500-24,650 support zone
Breakout Entry: Confirmed break above 25,100 with volume
Position Sizing:
Risk 1-2% of capital per trade
Scale in: 50% at first entry, 30% on confirmation, 20% on continuation
Price Targets:
Target 1: 25,350 (measured move from triangle)
Target 2: 25,800 (Fibonacci extension 1.618)
Target 3: 26,200 (psychological and Gann Square of 9 target)
Stop Loss Management:
Initial Stop: Below 24,500
Trail Stop: Move to breakeven once Target 1 is reached
Final Stop: Trail with 4-hour 20 EMA
Time Horizon: 3-6 weeks
Bearish Scenario (40% Probability)
Invalidation Triggers:
Break below 24,500 on daily close
Head and Shoulders pattern develops (left shoulder at 25,200, head forming now, right shoulder anticipated)
MACD bearish crossover on daily chart
Short Strategy (Swing):
Entry Conditions:
Daily close below 24,500
RSI breaks below 50 on daily
Death cross forming (50 SMA crossing below 200 SMA - currently not present)
Targets:
Target 1: 24,200 (weekly support)
Target 2: 23,850 (50-day SMA)
Target 3: 23,500 (major support and 50-week EMA)
Stop Loss: Above 24,800
📉 RISK FACTORS & MARKET CONTEXT
Technical Risk Factors:
Overextension: Weekly RSI approaching 70 suggests limited upside without consolidation
Volume Divergence: If breakout occurs with declining volume, suspect false move
Elliott Wave: If in Wave 5, expect exhaustion and correction before new highs
External Market Considerations:
Macroeconomic Factors to Monitor:
Federal Reserve policy statements (October FOMC meeting expectations)
Q3 2025 earnings season for mega-cap tech (starting mid-October)
Geopolitical tensions and their impact on risk sentiment
US Dollar strength affecting multinational tech companies
Sector-Specific Catalysts:
AI technology developments and adoption rates
Semiconductor supply chain updates
Regulatory environment for big tech
Interest rate trajectory impacts on growth stocks
🛡️ RISK MANAGEMENT RULES
For All Trading Timeframes:
Position Sizing: Never risk more than 2% of capital on single trade
Stop Loss: Mandatory on every trade, no exceptions
Take Profits: Scale out at predetermined levels (50% at T1, 30% at T2, 20% at T3)
Maximum Daily Loss: Stop trading if down 4% in single day
Correlation Risk: NAS100 correlates with QQQ, SPX, and major tech stocks - monitor for divergences
Trading Journal Requirements:
Document all entries with screenshots
Record reasoning and technical setup
Track hit rate and average risk:reward
Weekly performance review and strategy adjustment
📅 WEEKLY INTRADAY ROADMAP
Monday, October 7:
Bias: Neutral to slightly bullish
Key Level: 24,750 (Friday's close area)
Strategy: Wait for direction after Asian/European session
Action: If holds above 24,700, look for longs on 15-min pullbacks
Tuesday, October 8:
Bias: Testing resistance at 24,950
Gann Time Cycle: Potential volatility day
Strategy: Breakout or rejection trades
Action: High-probability setups at extremes
Wednesday, October 9:
Bias: Continuation or reversal confirmation day
Strategy: Follow Tuesday's direction with momentum
Action: Trail stops on profitable positions
Thursday, October 10:
Bias: Mid-week profit-taking possible
Strategy: Mean reversion trades if overextended
Action: Watch for VWAP reversion setups
Friday, October 11:
Bias: Week-end positioning, reduced size
Strategy: Close most intraday positions before weekend
Action: Only high-conviction swing trades held over weekend
🎓 INDICATOR CONFLUENCE SUMMARY
Bullish Signals (Current):
✅ Price above 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs
✅ Ichimoku cloud bullish on daily and weekly
✅ MACD positive on multiple timeframes
✅ Volume profile shows accumulation
✅ Ascending triangle continuation pattern
✅ Gann angles supporting upward trajectory
Bearish Warnings:
⚠️ RSI approaching overbought on 4-hour
⚠️ Potential Elliott Wave 5 exhaustion
⚠️ Bollinger Bands showing overextension
⚠️ Stochastic overbought on shorter timeframes
Neutral/Watch:
🔍 Volume needs to increase on breakout attempts
🔍 Wyckoff accumulation phase requires confirmation
🔍 Head and Shoulders pattern could develop if resistance holds
🎯 FINAL TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS
For Intraday Traders:
Focus on the 24,650-25,100 range for the next week. Best opportunities exist at range extremes with clear risk management. Favor long setups given the broader bullish context, but remain nimble and respect stop losses.
Best Intraday Timeframes: 5-min for entries, 15-min for trend confirmation, 1-hour for bias
For Swing Traders:
The ascending triangle offers an excellent risk:reward setup. Consider building positions on pullbacks to 24,500-24,650 with stops below 24,450. Target the 25,350-25,800 zone over the next 4-6 weeks. Monitor daily candle closes for trend confirmation.
Best Swing Timeframes: Daily for entries, 4-hour for momentum, weekly for trend validation
⚡ KEY LEVELS SUMMARY CARD
Immediate Levels (Intraday):
🔴 Strong Resistance: 25,100-25,150
🟠 Resistance: 24,950-25,000
🔵 Current Price: 24,781
🟢 Support: 24,650-24,700
🟢 Strong Support: 24,500-24,550
Major Levels (Swing):
🔴 Major Resistance: 25,200-25,350
🔴 Psychological: 25,000
🟢 Major Support: 24,200-24,350
🟢 Critical Support: 23,500-23,680
📝 DISCLAIMER
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. Trading financial instruments carries substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with licensed financial advisors before making trading decisions. The author is not responsible for any trading losses incurred based on this analysis.
Next Update: October 11, 2025
Analysis Valid Through: October 18, 2025
Prepared using advanced technical analysis incorporating Wyckoff, Elliott Wave, Gann, Harmonic Patterns, Ichimoku, and modern momentum indicators.RetryClaude can make mistakes. Please double-check responses.
ALERT: VIX-NDX COVARIANCE HITS DANGER ZONEA few days ago, my custom VIX–Price Covariance Monitor started flashing red... and it hasn’t cooled off since.
Here’s what that means 👇
- The TVC:VIX (volatility index) and NASDAQ:NDX (Nasdaq 100) are now moving in the same direction.
That’s not normal.
Usually, when stocks rise, volatility falls.
But when both start climbing together — it means something under the surface is fracturing.
Half the times this correlation flips positive, the market corrects or worse, it crashes.
I’m not panic‑selling, but I’m definitely not buying either for now.
No new longs unless it’s a screaming opportunity.
In the meantime? Stacking cash and sitting tight.
This is time to play close attention to the market,
10 Year Q4 Performance Review - NAS100 & US30📊Q4 PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS: US30 & NAS100
═══════════════════════════════════════════════
Historical Review 2014-2024 | October 2025
KEY STATISTICS AT A GLANCE
──────────────────────────────────────
• Bullish Q4 Periods: 8 out of 10 years (80%)
• Bearish Q4 Periods: 2 out of 10 years (20%)
• Average NAS100 Q4 Return: +5.8%
• Average US30 Q4 Return: +4.2%
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
──────────────────────────────────────
Q4 is historically the strongest quarter for both US30 and NAS100, delivering positive returns in 8 out of 10 years (80% success rate).
Key Findings:
──────────────────────────────────────
• The NASDAQ-100 consistently outperforms the Dow Jones by an average of +1.6%
• Technology sector leadership drives superior Q4 momentum in NAS100
• Only two bearish Q4 periods: 2018 (Fed tightening) and 2015 (rate hike fears)
• Both bearish periods were driven by central bank policy concerns
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
↕️PERFORMANCE COMPARISON
US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average)
──────────────────────────────────────
• Bullish Q4s: 8 out of 10 years
• Average Q4 Return: +4.2%
• Best Q4: +15.4% (2022)
• Worst Q4: -11.3% (2018)
NAS100 (NASDAQ-100)
──────────────────────────────────────
• Bullish Q4s: 8 out of 10 years
• Average Q4 Return: +5.8%
• Best Q4: +15.5% (2020)
• Worst Q4: -15.1% (2018)
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YEAR-BY-YEAR BREAKDOWN
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Q4 2024 - BULLISH ✅
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• US30: +6.2%
• NAS100: +8.1%
• Key Driver: AI optimism & Fed rate cuts, post-election rally momentum
Q4 2023 - BULLISH ✅ (STRONGEST QUARTER)
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• US30: +12.5%
• NAS100: +14.2%
• Key Driver: Inflation cooling significantly, Fed pivot expectations, one of strongest Q4s in history
Q4 2022 - BULLISH ✅
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• US30: +15.4%
• NAS100: +2.2%
• Key Driver: Relief rally from oversold conditions, peak inflation fears subsiding
Q4 2021 - BULLISH ✅
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• US30: +5.4%
• NAS100: +8.3%
• Key Driver: Economic reopening momentum, strong corporate earnings
Q4 2020 - BULLISH ✅
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• US30: +10.2%
• NAS100: +15.5%
• Key Driver: COVID vaccine announcements, massive fiscal stimulus, tech sector leadership
Q4 2019 - BULLISH ✅
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• US30: +5.7%
• NAS100: +12.2%
• Key Driver: US-China trade deal optimism, accommodative Fed policy
Q4 2018 - BEARISH ❌ (WORST QUARTER)
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• US30: -11.3%
• NAS100: -15.1%
• Key Driver: Aggressive Fed tightening, trade war escalation, worst December since Great Depression
Q4 2017 - BULLISH ✅
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• US30: +10.3%
• NAS100: +9.8%
• Key Driver: Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, strong global growth
Q4 2016 - BULLISH ✅
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• US30: +8.7%
• NAS100: +1.3%
• Key Driver: Trump election rally, infrastructure spending expectations
Q4 2015 - BEARISH ❌
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• US30: -1.7%
• NAS100: -2.1%
• Key Driver: First Fed rate hike since 2006, China slowdown concerns
Q4 2014 - BULLISH ✅
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• US30: +4.8%
• NAS100: +8.2%
• Key Driver: Oil price decline benefiting consumers, ECB stimulus expectations
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WHY Q4 IS HISTORICALLY BULLISH
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📊Six Key Seasonal Factors:
1. Santa Claus Rally
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• Traditional year-end optimism and positive sentiment
• Portfolio positioning for new year creates buying pressure
2. Holiday Shopping Season
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• Positive retail sales impact consumer stocks
• Strong economic activity indicators boost market confidence
3. Tax-Loss Harvesting
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• Creates buying opportunities in early Q4
• Strategic positioning by investors leads to increased volume
4. Window Dressing
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• Fund managers position portfolios for year-end reports
• Institutional buying pressure supports prices
5. Bonus Season
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• Wall Street bonuses drive investment activity
• Increased capital deployment in December
6. New Year Capital Inflows
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• Fresh investment allocations from pension funds and institutions
• Renewed market optimism for upcoming year
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🚨CRITICAL RISK LESSONS➡️
The 2018 Exception: Fed Policy Override
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Q4 2018 demonstrated that central bank policy errors can completely override seasonal patterns.
• The Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hiking into slowing growth triggered an 11-15% decline in both indices
• Trade war escalation compounded market concerns
• Critical reminder that macro policy is paramount and can overwhelm even the strongest seasonal tendencies
• Key Lesson: Always monitor Federal Reserve policy - aggressive tightening into economic weakness is the primary risk factor
🟧The 2015 Warning: Rate Hike Anxiety
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The first rate normalization in nearly a decade created mild bearish pressure in Q4 2015.
• Market anxiety about Fed policy transition combined with China economic slowdown fears
• Emerging market currency crises added pressure
• While less severe than 2018, shows that even minor negative Q4s are typically policy-driven
• Key Lesson: Major policy transitions create uncertainty that can disrupt seasonal patterns
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PROBABILITY METRICS
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• Positive Q4 Probability: 80%
• Q4 Return Greater Than 5% Probability: 60%
• Q4 Return Greater Than 10% Probability: 30%
• Negative Q4 Probability: 20%
• Median Q4 Return for US30: +5.6%
• Median Q4 Return for NAS100: +8.2%
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✅STRATEGIC TRADING IMPLICATIONS
For Long-Term Investors
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The 80%-win rate strongly favors staying invested through Q4. Historical data supports maintaining core positions despite volatility.
Action Items:
──────────────────────────────────────
• Maintain long positions through year-end
• Use October dips for adding exposure
• Avoid panic selling during temporary pullbacks
• Focus on 80% probability of positive returns
🎯For Active Traders
──────────────────────────────────────
Position for the Santa Claus rally into December.
NAS100 offers higher upside potential with +1.6% average outperformance over US30.
Action Items:
──────────────────────────────────────
• Build positions in late October/early November
• Favor NAS100 for higher growth potential
• Watch Fed commentary and rate decisions closely
• Take profits in late December during peak rally
🚨Risk Management Protocol
──────────────────────────────────────
Respect the 20% failure rate demonstrated in 2018 and 2015.
Implement stop-losses to protect against policy-driven reversals.
Action Items:
──────────────────────────────────────
• Set stop-losses at 5-7% below entry
• Monitor Fed policy statements weekly
• Don't over-leverage despite high win rate
• Be prepared to exit if policy turns aggressive
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💡KEY INSIGHTS & PATTERNS
NAS100 Outperformance Dominance
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• NASDAQ-100 outperformed US30 in 7 out of 10 Q4 periods (70% of the time)
• Technology leadership consistently drives momentum during year-end rallies
• Average outperformance of +1.6% makes NAS100 the superior choice for growth-oriented Q4 positioning
Volatility Evolution
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• Recent years show significantly increased Q4 volatility compared to 2014-2019
• Lower volatility periods: 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2021
• Higher volatility periods: 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023, 2024
• Macro uncertainty and policy shifts driving larger price swings
Monthly Breakdown Patterns
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• October:
Mixed performance, often volatile - historical "October effect" creates nervousness but also buying opportunities
• November:
Typically, the strongest month of Q4 - Thanksgiving week rally is common, lowest volatility of the quarter
• December:
Generally positive, especially second half - Santa Claus rally peaks in final two weeks, year-end window dressing drives gains
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🆗NAS100 VS US30: WHICH TO TRADE?
Choose NAS100 If:
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• Seeking maximum upside potential (+5.8% average vs +4.2%)
• Technology sector exposure aligns with market trends
• Comfortable with higher volatility
• Trading shorter-term for quick gains
• Focused on growth over value
Choose US30 If:
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• Seeking more stable, defensive positioning
• Prefer blue-chip industrial exposure
• Lower volatility tolerance
• Longer-term holding period
• Economic reopening themes more important
✅Optimal Strategy:
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• Split allocation 60% NAS100 / 40% US30 to capture NAS100 upside while maintaining US30 stability
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THE VERDICT
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📊🟢Q4 has been PREDOMINANTLY BULLISH with an 80% success rate over the past decade.
🏅The Five Critical Takeaways:
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• Historical Edge Exists: 80% win rate provides clear statistical advantage for bullish positioning
• NAS100 is Superior: Average return of +5.8% vs +4.2% for US30 makes NASDAQ-100 the better choice
• Seasonality Creates Support: Six structural factors (Santa Rally, bonuses, window dressing, etc.) provide fundamental buying pressure
• Fed Policy is the Wildcard: 2018 demonstrates central bank mistakes can override all seasonal patterns - this is the primary risk
• Risk Management is Essential: 20% failure rate means stops and position sizing remain critical despite favorable odds
Strategic Conclusion:
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Leverage the statistical edge while maintaining robust risk management protocols.
Q4 offers one of the most reliable bullish periods in the calendar year, but investors must remain vigilant for Federal Reserve policy mistakes that can completely override seasonal patterns.
The combination of year-end fund flows, holiday optimism, and institutional window dressing creates a structurally supportive environment that has delivered consistent results for the past decade.
Bottom Line:
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• Be bullish but not reckless
• The odds favor upside, but the 2018 exception proves nothing is guaranteed
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✅🎯CURRENT OUTLOOK FOR Q4 2025
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Bullish Catalysts
──────────────────────────────────────
• Historical 80% win rate provides statistical edge
• Potential Fed easing cycle continuation into year-end
• Year-end positioning and institutional fund flows
• Technology sector AI innovation momentum continuing
• Strong YTD performance creates positive momentum
Bearish Risks
──────────────────────────────────────
• Elevated valuations following strong year-to-date gains
• Geopolitical uncertainties remain elevated
• Potential Federal Reserve policy pivot or hawkish surprises
• Economic growth deceleration signals emerging
• October seasonal volatility could trigger profit-taking
Most Likely Scenario
──────────────────────────────────────
• Based on historical patterns and current conditions, Q4 2025 has approximately 70-80% probability of positive returns
• Key monitoring points: Fed policy statements, inflation data releases, and October volatility levels
• If October sees a pullback, it likely represents a buying opportunity for year-end rally
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Analysis Period:
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• Q4 2014 through Q4 2024 (10 complete years)
Calculation Method:
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• Quarterly returns calculated from September 30 closing price to December 31 closing price each year
• Total return basis including dividends where applicable
Data Sources:
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• Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
• Major financial data providers and exchanges
• Historical index data verified across multiple sources
• All percentages rounded to one decimal place for clarity
Quality Control:
──────────────────────────────────────
• All data cross-referenced with at least two independent sources to ensure accuracy
• Any discrepancies investigated and resolved before inclusion
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⚠️IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS
Past Performance Warning:
──────────────────────────────────────
• Past performance does not guarantee future results
• The 80% historical win rate does not ensure Q4 2025 will be positive
Not Financial Advice:
──────────────────────────────────────
• This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only
• It should not be construed as investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security
Risk Disclosure:
──────────────────────────────────────
• Trading and investing involve substantial risk of loss
• All investors should conduct their own research and consult with qualified financial advisors before making investment decisions
No Guarantees:
──────────────────────────────────────
• While historical patterns provide valuable context, markets can and do behave unpredictably
• The 2018 Q4 collapse demonstrates that even strong seasonal patterns can fail
Use At Your Own Risk:
──────────────────────────────────────
• Any trading or investment decisions made based on this analysis are solely the responsibility of the individual trader/investor
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FINAL THOUGHTS
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Q4 has proven to be one of the most reliable bullish periods in the market calendar. The combination of seasonal factors, institutional positioning, and year-end optimism creates a powerful tailwind that has delivered positive returns 80% of the time over the past decade.
However, the 2018 exception serves as a sobering reminder that Federal Reserve policy errors can override even the strongest seasonal patterns. Aggressive monetary tightening into slowing growth represents the primary risk factor that traders must monitor vigilantly.
For those willing to respect both the opportunity and the risk, Q4 offers one of the best risk-reward setups of the calendar year. Position accordingly, manage risk diligently, and let the probabilities work in your favor.
The market rewards preparation. This analysis provides the preparation. Execution is up to you.
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Report Prepared: October 2025
Analysis Coverage: 10 Years of Q4 Performance Data
Indices Analyzed: US30 (Dow Jones) & NAS100 (NASDAQ-100)
🎯Primary Finding: Q4 is 80% bullish with NAS100 outperforming
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End of Report
Nasdaq Bull run still has some steam left.Nasdaq Bull run still has some steam left. It appears that Tarrif war has almost no significant effect on US economy as per economist expectations.
NAS100- High Volume Control & Liquidity🚨My personal view:
➡️The Low Season/3rd Quarter is behind us.
➡️Liquidity is crucial for fresh acceleration in the High Season/Last quarter.
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🎯 KEY PIVOT
📍 Zone Type: SUPPLY - Psychological
📊 Price Range: 24,900-25,000
📏 Distance: 127 points above current price with ATH rejection history
📊 MAIN BIAS
🔴 Bias: BEARISH
📌 Context: Rejected from all-time high supply
💎 DIAMOND EDGE - Primary Setup
🎲 Direction: Short from 24,900-25,000 WHEN PRICE RALLIES TO IT
🔍 Confirmations:
⚠️ NOTE:
💡 Price Respects 24,900-25,000 supply rejection zone
✅Wait for price to rally 127 points to supply zone.
✅Bearish rejection wicks at 24,900-25,000 zone
✅Volume spike with failure to hold above 24,900
🎯 Targets:
T1: 24,600-24,700
T2: 24,420-24,350➡️➡️LIQUIDITY
T3: 24,000-24,100➡️➡️Liquidity + Highest Concentration of HVN and Session POC's
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🔄 BIAS FLIP SETUP- BULLISH🟢
⚡ Trigger:
➡️Break and close above 25,000
🎲 Direction: Long from 25,000 breakout
🔍 Confirmations:
✅Strong close above 25,000 on volume
✅Bullish momentum continuation above breakout after re-test of psychological level.
🎯 Target Extensions - DISCOVERY:
T1: 25,200
T2: 25,500
⚠️ SESSION RULES
❌Avoid chasing between levels.
✅Use your 50% markers as targets in-between key high-volume areas.
🕐 Trade only NYSE - US session (9:30am-4pm EST)
📰 Monitor Fed policy, economic data
