Nasdaq 100 – A Quiet Accumulation Before the Next PushThe Nasdaq 100 (US100) is showing early signs of a structural rebalancing after the recent correction. Price is currently hovering near 25,600, retracing modestly after a short-term rebound from the 25,280 demand zone — a level where Smart Money seems to have re-entered quietly.
💭 1️⃣ Market Structure – A Story of Displacement and Repricing
The current chart reveals a clear Break of Structure (BOS) followed by a corrective pullback.
After the previous sell-off, price found support at the 25,280 – 25,300 range — a discount zone aligning with both an order block and a trendline confluence.
This zone likely served as institutional demand, where Smart Money began accumulating long positions before the upward displacement.
The recent retracement, however, remains within a corrective structure, meaning we could still see one more liquidity sweep before the market decides its next major leg.
🩶 2️⃣ Supply & Demand Zones – The Footprints of Institutions
Karina is currently tracking three zones that matter most to the structure:
Demand Zone:
25,280 – 25,300: The base of institutional accumulation and current structural support.
Supply Zones:
25,970 – 26,160: A major bearish order block where Smart Money previously distributed positions — likely the next liquidity target.
The most probable scenario: a retest of the lower demand → a liquidity grab → bullish displacement toward 25,970 – 26,160 → reversal back to equilibrium.
🧭 3️⃣ Liquidity Flow – The Path of Least Resistance
Above the current range lies buy-side liquidity resting at 26,000+, while below, sell-side liquidity has already been swept near 25,280.
This suggests that the next move could be an engineered push upward — designed to collect liquidity above 25,970 – 26,160 before potential continuation back into the demand zone.
Such a move would mirror the classic SMC liquidity cycle:
Accumulate → Displace → Manipulate → Distribute.
🌙 4️⃣ Trading Outlook – Patience Before Precision
Karina’s bias for the day is moderately bullish, anticipating a short-term expansion toward the upper liquidity pool.
However, she remains cautious — waiting for confirmation near the demand zone before entering long.
Buy Idea:
Entry: 25,280 – 25,300
Stop Loss: below 25,200
Target 1: 25,970
Target 2: 26,160
If the liquidity sweep at 26,160 completes, Karina expects a controlled retracement — a potential short setup back into equilibrium around 25,400.
🌷 5️⃣ Reflection – When the Market Whispers, Smart Money Listens
The chart right now feels calm, methodical — like the quiet before a decisive wave.
Smart Money rarely rushes. It absorbs, manipulates, and moves when most traders stop paying attention.
For Karina, this is one of those moments where patience becomes the most powerful strategy.
The next move will not be random — it will be precise, intentional, and elegant, just like the rhythm of liquidity itself 🌙
This analysis reflects Karina’s personal perspective and is not financial advice.
How do you see the US100’s next move? Is Smart Money gearing up for another liquidity sweep above 26k? Let’s discuss below 💬
Trade ideas
NSDQ100 overbought pullback - dip buying opportunity? Equities saw a sharp reversal yesterday, led by weakness in tech and AI-related names. While it was only a single day’s selloff, sentiment has clearly shifted toward caution, with growing talk of a potential equity correction.
Market Dynamics
The Magnificent 7 stocks fell -2.28%, driving the Nasdaq 100 lower as investors reassessed stretched valuations.
Palantir (-7.9%) and Nvidia (-4.0%) were key drags, emblematic of overextended tech momentum — even positive earnings guidance wasn’t enough to support prices.
Broader weakness spread across the market: S&P 500 -1.17% (worst day since Oct 10), equal-weight S&P -0.63%, and Russell 2000 -1.78%.
The S&P ex-Mag-7 was down -0.75%, underscoring the narrowness of recent gains and rising concern over market concentration.
Macro & Other Drivers
The risk-off tone boosted Treasuries: 2yr yield fell to 3.58%, 10yr to 4.09%.
Broader sentiment was pressured by a prolonged U.S. government shutdown (now 36 days, the longest ever) with growing economic cost estimates ($10–30bn/week).
Bitcoin briefly recovered above $100k, but large holders sold ~400,000 coins (~$45bn), adding to the risk-aversion tone.
Political Context
Zohran Mamdani’s election as New York’s first democratic socialist mayor and new housing initiatives grabbed headlines but had limited market impact.
Takeaway for Nasdaq 100
The Nasdaq 100 faces renewed selling pressure as investors rotate out of AI-heavy leaders and take profits after a long rally.
Focus today will be on whether dip-buyers step in or if the correction broadens.
Key near-term catalysts: U.S. ISM Services and ADP employment data, plus earnings from Qualcomm, ARM, and DoorDash later today — all potential volatility triggers for tech sentiment.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
US100: Long Signal Explained
US100
- Classic bullish formation
- Our team expects pullback
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Long US100
Entry - 25826
Sl - 25738
Tp - 25997
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
NAS100Bearish Divergence formed in 1hr
SL (Stop Loss): 26,315
This is just above the recent swing high — it protects your trade if the price keeps rising instead of dropping.
Entry: 25,895
This is the suggested sell (short) entry level — price is expected to move down after breaking below this level, confirming the reversal.
TP (Take Profit): 25,485
This is the target level, where you can close your trade for profit if the price falls as expected.
USNAS100 | Buyers Hold Control Above 25440USNAS100 | Overview
The price reached the resistance zone after stabilizing above 25440.
Currently, it appears to be retesting 25440 before attempting another push higher toward 25700 – 25820.
A 1H close above 25820 would confirm further bullish momentum toward the all-time high (ATH) at 26170.
However, a move below 25440 would indicate renewed bearish pressure toward 25220, with a confirmed break below 25220 activating a broader downward trend.
Pivot Line: 25700
Resistance: 25820 · 25960 · 26170
Support: 25440 · 25230 · 25010
Outlook:
Bullish while above 25440, targeting 25700–25820.
Bearish scenario activates only below 25220.
Position Sizing: The Math That Separates Winners from LosersMost traders blow up their accounts not because of bad entries, but because of terrible position sizing. You can have a 60% win rate and still go broke if you risk too much per trade.
The 1-2% Rule (And Why It Works)
Never risk more than 1-2% of your account on a single trade.
Here's why this matters:
Risk 2% per trade → You can survive 50 consecutive losses
Risk 10% per trade → 10 losses = -65% drawdown (you need +186% just to break even)
Risk 20% per trade → 5 losses = game over
The Position Sizing Formula
Position Size = (Account Size × Risk %) / (Entry Price - Stop Loss)
Real Example:
Account: $10,000
Risk per trade: 2% = $200
Entry: $50
Stop loss: $48
Risk per share: $2
Position Size = $200 / $2 = 100 shares
If stopped out → You lose exactly $200 (2%)
If price hits $54 → You make $400 (4% gain, 2:1 R/R)
Different Risk Frameworks
Conservative (1% risk)
Best for: Beginners, volatile markets, high-frequency trading
Survivability: Can take 100+ losses
Growth: Slower but steady
Moderate (2% risk)
Best for: Experienced traders, tested strategies
Survivability: 50 consecutive losses
Growth: Balanced risk/reward
Aggressive (3-5% risk)
Best for: High conviction setups, smaller accounts trying to grow
Survivability: 20-33 losses
Growth: Faster but dangerous
Warning: Never go above 5% unless you're gambling, not trading.
The Kelly Criterion (Advanced)
For traders with significant backtested data:
Kelly % = Win Rate -
Example:
Win rate: 55%
Avg win: $300
Avg loss: $200
Win/Loss ratio: 1.5
Kelly % = 0.55 - = 0.55 - 0.30 = 25%
But use 1/4 Kelly (6.25%) or 1/2 Kelly (12.5%) - Full Kelly is too aggressive for real markets.
Common Position Sizing Mistakes
❌ Revenge trading larger after a loss
✅ Keep position size constant based on current account value
❌ Risking the same dollar amount regardless of setup quality
✅ Risk 0.5% on B-setups, 2% on A+ setups
❌ Ignoring correlation risk
✅ If you have 5 tech stocks open, you're really risking 10% on one sector
❌ Not adjusting after drawdowns
✅ If account drops 20%, your 2% risk should recalculate from new balance
The Volatility Adjustment
In high volatility (VIX > 30):
Cut position sizes by 30-50%
Widen stops or risk less per trade
Market can gap past your stops
In low volatility (VIX < 15):
Can use normal position sizing
Tighter stops possible
More predictable price action
My Personal Framework
I use a tiered approach:
High conviction setups (A+): 2% risk
Good setups (A): 1.5% risk
Decent setups (B): 1% risk
Experimental/learning: 0.5% risk
Maximum combined risk: Never more than 6% across all open positions.
The Bottom Line
Position sizing is the only thing you have complete control over in trading. You can't control:
Where price goes
Market volatility
News events
But you CAN control how much you risk.
The traders who survive long enough to get good are the ones who master position sizing first.
What's your current risk per trade? Drop it in the comments. If it's above 5%, we need to talk.
NASDAQ to 26,000 before year end - September, 2025No doubt this idea will be controversial as a majority of ideas published on the platform call for a bearish outlook.
Earlier this year paper hands were flushed out of the market on tariff scares. They couldn’t exit the market fast enough, some didn’t actually know why they were selling as emotions were in full control.
Today those same traders and investors sit in cash as they wait for an opportunity to buy in. Others betting heavily against the trend for Armageddon. All the while the market grinds upwards and onwards.
Two very simple questions everyone must ask when entering or betting against the market:
1. What is the trend?
2. Support and resistance, which is it?
You cannot maintain a bearish bias should you answer both of those questions positively. That’s emotion. Do you find yourself scanning lower timeframes to look for bias confirmation? You'd be in majority then. Notice how many published ideas you see operating in the 15 and 30 minute charts with 2 to 3 month forecasts? Always makes me smile, but it will not change the facts of the chart.
The Trend
Higher lows are evident on the daily chart below, marked out in black. The trend is your friend until the end.
Support & resistance
Look left. On the daily chart we can see multiple support tests with confirmation on past resistance. If the levels do not at first appear, zoom out using a higher timeframe. A majority will zoom in instead to confirm bias, that’s a red flag.
The Put / Call ratio
Retail traders are aggressive in their attempts to “short” this market. Nowhere is that more evident than the Put/Call ratio. Anytime you see dumb money move the put call ratio to 90 and above, the market rips. Just recently short sellers moved the ratio beyond this level. The chart below provides a comparison with the NDX to show what happens next. The rally that follows will typically last up to 2 months on average after this signal.
Why 26000?
The market entered price discovery after the previous all time high breakout of 22k. The forecast area was previously published, see linked ideas. The same conditions that allowed those forecasts now repeat. In addition the Fibonacci extensions; the NDX repeatably rallies to the 1.618 extension after each and every emotional flush out. It’s a gift horse of an opportunity.
Previous years:
Conclusion
Markets climb walls of worry, and this moment is no different. The loudest voices today call for collapse, but the charts, price action, and sentiment data are telling another story entirely. Higher lows, confirmed support, extreme put/call ratios, and Fibonacci extensions all align with one clear outcome: continuation.
A move to 26,000 on the NASDAQ before year-end is not a wild stretch of imagination, but the logical conclusion of repeating market behaviour. Every emotional flush out has historically created the runway for price discovery to the 1.618 extension, and this time is no different.
If you’re betting against the trend, you’re not fighting the market, you’re fighting math, structure, and history. The bears may dominate headlines but that just News. The market is not listening to fear. It’s grinding higher, and the destination is 26,000.
Ww
NASDAQ 100 Analysis !
The current price of the NASDAQ is $26,127, and my projection points to $32,000 in the coming months, entering 2026. This analysis is based exclusively on price action, following Al Brooks' methodology, through the technical analysis developed by Josias Baltazar, one of his closest students.
Use this projection as a reference for your decisions, whether in stocks or wherever you deem it appropriate.
I'll leave this analysis here... and I'll return in the future to see how it played out.
USNAS100 Extends Rally to New All-Time Highs?USNAS100 | Bullish Continuation Toward New Highs
The index recorded a new all-time high (ATH) and has already stabilized above it, supporting further bullish momentum toward 25,400 → 25,550.
The main driver behind the move remains strong corporate earnings.
However, to confirm a bearish reversal, the price must close a 1H candle below 25,170, which would expose 25,100 → 25,010.
A sustained break below those levels could extend the decline toward 24,850.
Pivot Line: 25,230
Resistance: 25,400 – 25,550
Support: 25,100 – 25,010 – 24,860
NASDAQ Index Analysis (US100)The NASDAQ index continues its strong bullish trend, currently trading near a new all-time high around 26,140.
📉 A minor correction is expected toward the 26,000 support zone.
If the price breaks and holds below this level, a further decline toward 25,800 is likely.
📈 However, if the price bounces from 26,000, the index may retest the recent high or even create a new record high.
💡 Key Trading Levels:
✅ Buy: On confirmed bounce from 26,000 or 25,800.
🔻 Sell: Below 26,000 after confirmation.
NASDAQ Needs some sideways relief but remains bullish.Nasdaq (NDX) continues to extend the new Bullish Leg of its 5-month Channel Up, having turned the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as its short-term Support, in line with both previous Bullish Legs.
We still expect at least a +9.59% rise, targeting 26300, to be completed before the pattern's new Higher High is priced but as the 4H RSI turned overbought (red circle), we expect the price to slow down a little, maybe seeking the 4H MA50 again as it happened in July.
In any event, the long-term trend remains bullish, until the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) breaks.
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US NAS 100Preferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.
Enjoy Trading ;)
NAS100 (1H) Market Outlook📈 NAS100 (1H) Market Outlook
NASDAQ is approaching a major resistance zone, with price currently extending within the upper boundary of a rising channel.
We may see a short-term bullish continuation into the top trendline, followed by a potential corrective drop back toward the 25,300–25,400 demand zone.
🧭 Key Levels:
🟥 Resistance Zone: 26,100 – 26,200
🟩 Support Zone: 25,300 – 25,400
⚙️ Potential setup: Wait for rejection confirmation before short entry.
📊 Market structure remains bullish overall, but extended exhaustion near the top trendline could trigger a pullback before continuation.
✨ Precision. Patience. Profit.
#NAS100 #US100 #IndexTrading #Forex #StressFreeTrading
US100 (NDQ): Trend in daily time frameThe color levels are very accurate levels of support and resistance in different time frames, and we have to wait for their reaction in these areas.
So, Please pay special attention to the very accurate trends, colored levels,
and you must know that SETUP is very sensitive.
Be careful
BEST
MT
Position Sizing: The Math That Separates Winners from LosersMost traders blow up their accounts not because of bad entries, but because of terrible position sizing. You can have a 60% win rate and still go broke if you risk too much per trade.
The 1-2% Rule (And Why It Works)
Never risk more than 1-2% of your account on a single trade.
Here's why this matters:
Risk 2% per trade → You can survive 50 consecutive losses
Risk 10% per trade → 10 losses = -65% drawdown (you need +186% just to break even)
Risk 20% per trade → 5 losses = game over
The Position Sizing Formula
Position Size = (Account Size × Risk %) / (Entry Price - Stop Loss)
Real Example:
Account: $10,000
Risk per trade: 2% = $200
Entry: $50
Stop loss: $48
Risk per share: $2
Position Size = $200 / $2 = 100 shares
If stopped out → You lose exactly $200 (2%)
If price hits $54 → You make $400 (4% gain, 2:1 R/R)
Different Risk Frameworks
Conservative (1% risk)
Best for: Beginners, volatile markets, high-frequency trading
Survivability: Can take 100+ losses
Growth: Slower but steady
Moderate (2% risk)
Best for: Experienced traders, tested strategies
Survivability: 50 consecutive losses
Growth: Balanced risk/reward
Aggressive (3-5% risk)
Best for: High conviction setups, smaller accounts trying to grow
Survivability: 20-33 losses
Growth: Faster but dangerous
Warning: Never go above 5% unless you're gambling, not trading.
The Kelly Criterion (Advanced)
For traders with significant backtested data:
Kelly % = Win Rate -
Example:
Win rate: 55%
Avg win: $300
Avg loss: $200
Win/Loss ratio: 1.5
Kelly % = 0.55 - = 0.55 - 0.30 = 25%
But use 1/4 Kelly (6.25%) or 1/2 Kelly (12.5%) - Full Kelly is too aggressive for real markets.
Common Position Sizing Mistakes
❌ Revenge trading larger after a loss
✅ Keep position size constant based on current account value
❌ Risking the same dollar amount regardless of setup quality
✅ Risk 0.5% on B-setups, 2% on A+ setups
❌ Ignoring correlation risk
✅ If you have 5 tech stocks open, you're really risking 10% on one sector
❌ Not adjusting after drawdowns
✅ If account drops 20%, your 2% risk should recalculate from new balance
The Volatility Adjustment
In high volatility (VIX > 30):
Cut position sizes by 30-50%
Widen stops or risk less per trade
Market can gap past your stops
In low volatility (VIX < 15):
Can use normal position sizing
Tighter stops possible
More predictable price action
My Personal Framework
I use a tiered approach:
High conviction setups (A+): 2% risk
Good setups (A): 1.5% risk
Decent setups (B): 1% risk
Experimental/learning: 0.5% risk
Maximum combined risk: Never more than 6% across all open positions.
The Bottom Line
Position sizing is the only thing you have complete control over in trading. You can't control:
Where price goes
Market volatility
News events
But you CAN control how much you risk.
The traders who survive long enough to get good are the ones who master position sizing first.
What's your current risk per trade? Drop it in the comments. If it's above 5%, we need to talk.
Are Institutional Buyers Returning to NASDAQ100 Again?🎯 NASDAQ100 Blueprint: The Thief's Ultimate Heist Setup 💰
📊 Asset Overview
NASDAQ:NDX | US100 Index
Market Capital Flow Analysis - Swing Trade Setup
🔍 Technical Foundation
Bias: 🐂 BULLISH CONFIRMED
The LSMA (Least Squares Moving Average) breakout has painted the perfect picture. When institutional money flows align with technical breakouts, you know the smart money is positioning for the next leg up.
Current Market Structure:
We're witnessing a textbook bullish continuation pattern with strong momentum building above key moving averages. The index is showing resilience at support zones while eyeing psychological resistance levels ahead.
💎 The Thief's Layered Entry Strategy
Entry Philosophy: "Why catch one knife when you can catch four?" 😏
This is classic Thief-style layering - multiple limit orders spread across strategic price zones to build a position with optimal average entry:
Entry Layers (Limit Orders):
🎯 Layer 1: 24,800
🎯 Layer 2: 25,000 (Psychological level)
🎯 Layer 3: 25,200
🎯 Layer 4: 25,400
Pro tip: You can add more layers based on your risk appetite and capital allocation. Scale in gradually, not aggressively.
Alternative: If you prefer simplicity, you can enter at current market price - but layering gives you the edge when volatility strikes.
🛡️ Risk Management
Stop Loss Zone: 24,600
⚠️ Important Notice: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG's), this SL is MY reference point based on market structure. You are the captain of your own ship - set your stop loss according to YOUR risk tolerance and account size. Trade at your own risk!
🎯 Profit Target
Primary Target: 26,000
Why this level?
Strong historical resistance zone
Overbought territory on multiple timeframes
Potential bull trap formation area
Confluence with Fibonacci extension levels
⚠️ Exit Strategy Note: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG's), this TP is MY analysis. When YOU see green, YOU decide when to bank it. Take profits incrementally if you prefer safety over maximum gains. Remember: Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered! 🐷
🔗 Correlated Assets to Watch
These pairs move in tandem with NASDAQ100 - keep them on your radar:
📈 SP:SPX (S&P 500): The big brother index - when SPX moves, NQ100 often follows
📈 NASDAQ:QQQ (Nasdaq ETF): Direct tracking vehicle for tech-heavy momentum
📈 NASDAQ:AAPL (Apple Inc.): Largest NASDAQ component - heavy influence on index direction
📈 NASDAQ:MSFT (Microsoft): Tech titan with significant index weighting
📈 NASDAQ:NVDA (NVIDIA): Semiconductor leader driving AI narrative
📈 NASDAQ:TSLA (Tesla): High-beta play that amplifies NASDAQ moves
📈 TVC:DXY (US Dollar Index): Inverse correlation - strong dollar often pressures tech stocks
📈 TVC:TNX (10-Year Treasury Yield): Rising yields = tech pressure; falling yields = tech rally
Key Correlation Insight: Tech stocks (and thus NASDAQ) typically benefit from falling yields and weakening dollar conditions. Monitor these macro factors!
⚡ Key Technical Points
✅ LSMA breakout confirms bullish momentum shift
✅ Volume profile suggests accumulation at current levels
✅ Multiple timeframe alignment (swing trader's dream)
✅ Risk-reward ratio favors long positioning
✅ Institutional money flow indicators turning positive
⚠️ Watch for: Volatility spikes near resistance, macro news events, and Federal Reserve commentary that could impact tech valuations.
🎭 The Thief's Final Words
"In the market, you're either the heist mastermind or the one getting robbed. Choose wisely." 😎
This setup is designed for swing traders who understand that patience and proper position sizing beat FOMO every single time. Layer in, manage risk, and let the market come to you.
Remember: This isn't financial advice - it's a roadmap drawn by someone who respects the market's ability to humble even the best of us.
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#NASDAQ100 #US100 #NQ100 #SwingTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #LSMA #LayeredEntry #ThiefStyle #IndexTrading #BullishSetup #RiskManagement #TradingStrategy #MarketAnalysis #PriceAction #SupportAndResistance #TradingIdeas #StockMarket #ForexTrading #DayTrading #TradingCommunity






















