AUDCHF BUY TRADE PLAN**PAIR & DATE:** AUDCHF – 29 Aug 2025
**PLAN OVERVIEW:**
* Category: Intra-Day / Potential Swing
* Trade Type: Breakout-Retest Continuation (Buy)
* Direction: Buy
* Confidence: 75%
* Min R\:R: 1:3
* Status: VALID
**MACRO ALIGNMENT NOTE:**
✅ WITH Trend & WITH Macro Bias – AUD supported by mild risk-on tone, stable commodities; CHF softer with SNB dovish lean and low inflation prints. D1 bias recovering from base; H4 showing a clean higher-low structure breaking mid-range resistance.
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**LEVELS CARD – PRIMARY SETUP (Higher Probability)**
* Entry: 0.5225–0.5230 (H1 demand / breakout retest)
* Stop Loss: 0.5190
* TP1: 0.5260
* TP2: 0.5285
* TP3: 0.5315 (stretch if momentum extends)
* Order: Market after confirmation (H1 engulf or strong bullish close from zone)
* Session Preference: London → NY overlap
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**ALTERNATE SETUP** *(High-probability counter only; independently ≥70% confluence)*
* Type: Tactical Short from resistance sweep
* Entry: 0.5310–0.5320 (D1 supply / liquidity above recent swing high)
* Stop Loss: 0.5345
* TP1: 0.5280
* TP2: 0.5255
* Rationale: Sweep into unmitigated HTF supply could trigger short-term pullback before continuation.
* Macro Alignment: Counter Trend, Counter Macro Bias → reduced size 0.5–1% risk.
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**EXECUTION CHECKLIST:**
1. News gate: Avoid 15m before / 30–60m after red AUD or CHF events.
2. Price taps zone in preferred session.
3. Confirmation: H1 engulf / BOS / pin rejection wick.
4. Execute defined order type.
5. TP1 partial (30–40%) → SL to BE.
6. Trail stops by structure after TP1.
7. Skip if no valid trigger.
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**FUNDAMENTALS & NEWS:**
* CB Bias: RBA neutral-hawkish; SNB dovish-leaning.
* Key Data (7d): China PMI (AUD impact), Swiss GDP.
* Cross-Asset Sentiment: Risk tone mildly supportive; commodities stable; CHF index easing.
* Positioning: COT neutral for CHF; slight net-long AUD.
* Macro Lean: Mild bullish AUDCHF bias unless CHF sees haven bid.
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**MARKET MAP:**
* D1/H4 Structure: Recovering from consolidation base; breakout of mid-range resistance.
* Liquidity Pools: Above 0.5260 and 0.5310; demand at 0.5225–0.5230.
* OB/FVG: H1 bullish OB at entry aligning with recent breakout candle.
* Play Type: Breakout-Retest (Primary) / Sweep-Reversal (Alternate).
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**RISK & MONEY MANAGEMENT:**
* Risk per idea: 1–2% (Primary), 0.5–1% (Alternate – counter nature).
* Min R\:R: 1:3.
* Spread Filter: ≤1.5× typical London/NY.
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**CONFIDENCE (ONE SENTENCE):**
75% — Primary long aligns with macro and HTF breakout structure; alternate short only valid if liquidity sweep into major supply triggers reversal signal.
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**FINAL EXECUTION STRATEGY / PERSONAL NOTE:**
* Primary: Zone is fresh, first touch pending; buy only on H1 engulf from 0.5225–0.5230.
* Alternate: Zone is fresh; short only if liquidity sweep + BOS at 0.5310–0.5320.
* No changes to original levels from previous plan.
* Stay flat if price chops mid-range or invalidates levels.
