US100 Trend Watch – Critical LevelsUS100 Update
On the low time frame, US100 is consolidating around the 24,603 – 24,655 zone after rejecting higher levels.
Key levels:
24,655 – 24,603 → short-term resistance zone. A breakout and hold above would confirm bullish continuation.
24,158 → main trend support. As long as this level holds, the broader bullish structure remains intact.
Upside scenario: If price breaks and sustains above 24,655, momentum could extend further to test 25,000+.
Downside risk: If price falls below 24,603 and especially under 24,158, risk increases for a deeper pullback toward 23,800 – 23,400.
📌 Summary
Above 24,655 → bullish continuation toward new highs.
Hold above 24,158 → uptrend structure remains safe.
Below 24,158 → deeper correction risk, next support at 23,400.
USTECH100CFD trade ideas
NASDAQ (US100) - ShortNasdaq (US100) currently trading at 24662.
We reached a high at 24767 and from there got a rejection. Multiple reasons here now for a continuation to the down side.
Entry: In rising channel at current levels.
Stop Loss: 24702
T1: 24418
T2: 24072
I'm expecting to see a break of this rising channel soon, may get some retest of the upper line till then which are great entry points.
No trading advise, just my opinion. Have fun.
NASDAQ NAS100 Analysis: Three-Drive Pattern, VWAP & Trade Plan📊 The NASDAQ 100 has been riding a strong bullish trend, pushing higher with relentless momentum. On the daily timeframe, price now looks heavily overextended 📈.
🔎 Zooming into the 4-hour chart, the overextension is even more apparent. In trending markets, we often observe a three-drive pattern (sometimes a fourth) before an aggressive correction occurs.
⚡ I’m keeping an eye out for a sharp pullback. If price finds support and confirms with a bullish break of market structure, this could present a high-probability long entry setup 🚀.
📹 In the video, I also dive into how I use the VWAP and Fibonacci retracement tools. Both are powerful indicators that provide valuable insight and a trading edge 🔧.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always trade responsibly and manage your risk.
NASDAQ September's Channel Up targets 24900.Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a Channel Up since the September 02 Low and at the moment it is unfolding its 2nd Bullish Leg following the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) bounce on September 17.
Based on the previous 4H MA50 Bullish Leg, the sequence should peak below the 2.382 Fibonacci extension at a maximum +3.96% rise. Our Target is slightly below those at 24900.
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US100 Breaks All-Time High – Bullish Targets Ahead!This 4-hour chart of the US100 (Nasdaq) shows a strong bullish trend supported by multiple breakouts (BO) and break of structure (BOS) signals over the past few weeks. After retesting and bouncing from key buyer activation zones, the price has consistently broken through previous resistance levels.
Most notably, the index has just broken above its previous all-time high around 23,976, signaling strong momentum and potential for further upside. The price is currently hovering near 24,089, with key short-term targets marked at:
Target : $24,284
Target : $24,396
Target : $24,511
These targets align with the upper boundary of a rising parallel channel, suggesting the bulls are in control for now.
The chart projects a continuation of this bullish move, with a stair-step rally expected if the current breakout holds. As long as the price stays above the breakout zone and respects the structure, the upside targets remain in play.
In short: US100 is showing solid bullish strength, breaking above its previous highs with clear upside potential.
Educational Idea.
NAS100 - Stock Market on Federal Holiday!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour time frame and is in its long-term ascending channel. If the upward momentum decreases, we can expect a correction to the demand zones and buy Nasdaq in that range with an appropriate reward for the risk.
Traders in prediction markets now estimate that the U.S. federal government shutdown could last more than a week and potentially extend into mid-October. These projections suggest that Washington’s political environment has reached a deadlock, making a swift agreement in Congress increasingly unlikely.
The shutdown began early Wednesday morning after Democrats and Republicans—along with President Donald Trump—failed to reach a compromise on a temporary funding bill. As a result, hundreds of thousands of federal employees have been placed on unpaid leave, and numerous government programs and public services have been suspended.
According to data from Bank of America, since 1990, U.S. government shutdowns have lasted an average of 14 days. Although the S&P 500 has typically risen about 1% during such periods, an extended impasse could weigh heavily on an already fragile economy and markets near record highs.
The credit rating agency Fitch stated that the current shutdown will not have a direct impact on the United States’ credit rating, which remains at AA+ with a stable outlook. However, the agency noted that repeated reliance on short-term funding resolutions reflects persistent weaknesses in U.S. fiscal governance. Still, Fitch expects the U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency to remain intact in the near future.
Fitch also added that a short-lived shutdown is unlikely to affect most public-finance credits, though a prolonged one could pose negative risks for bond issuers—particularly those dependent on federal funding in areas such as healthcare, housing, and higher education.
Meanwhile, UBS argued that concerns over the U.S. government shutdown have been overstated, predicting that its economic impact will be limited and short-lived. The bank advised investors to look beyond political noise and instead focus on Federal Reserve rate cuts, corporate earnings, and opportunities in artificial intelligence.
Economists at Citi expect the Federal Reserve to implement two 25-basis-point rate cuts in October and December, in line with its Dot Plot projections. However, the shutdown could delay access to key labor and inflation data, forcing investors to rely more heavily on private sources such as ADP reports.
Similarly, Bank of America forecasts a rate cut in October but notes that markets have already priced in this outcome, assigning a 95% probability for October and 85% for December. In essence, this projection merely aligns with the consensus that has already formed among traders.
In actual market developments, expectations have shifted back toward easing policies. Over the past two weeks, the hawkish pressure that had supported the dollar has eased, and markets are once again pricing in a lower-rate trajectory. Currently, about 105 basis points of rate cuts are priced in for next year, compared with a previous low of 94 basis points—a shift that favors equities while weighing on the dollar.
According to Daniel Pavilonis, senior commodities broker at RJO Futures, the government shutdown will not significantly impair the Fed’s ability to assess labor market conditions. “The Fed relies more on its proprietary datasets than on official government statistics,” he explained. “Even amid a shutdown, policymakers maintain a fairly accurate picture of the economy.”
After a week dominated by employment data—some released and others delayed due to the shutdown—the upcoming week is expected to be relatively quiet for official U.S. economic releases unless a resolution is reached.Instead, market attention will pivot toward remarks from Federal Reserve officials.
On Wednesday, the minutes of the September FOMC meeting will be released, offering deeper insight into policymakers’ views on the rate path and inflation risks. Then, on Friday, the University of Michigan’s preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index for October will shed light on household perceptions of the economy and their financial conditions—a key gauge for domestic demand strength.
In addition, investors will closely monitor speeches from several Fed officials, including Bostic, Bowman, Miran, Kashkari, Barr, and Musalem. Their comments could directly influence market expectations for monetary policy and shape trading sentiment in the days ahead.
NASDAQ Hits Historic High – 3 Key Scenarios for the Trading Day🚀 NASDAQ Weekly & Daily Update 🚀
Nasdaq is currently in a strongly bullish trend, and this week marks a significant historic high. Most likely, we’ll see the index touch 25,500. Both the weekly and daily round levels are perfectly aligned, as it has just broken its previous high.
For the upcoming trading day, I’m considering 3 potential scenarios:
1️⃣ Scenario 1: Price may initially move downwards, gathering liquidity at the New York session low, then correct, and after touching the Pro Key level, rebound upwards.
2️⃣ Scenario 2: Price might move upwards first, hit the order block that aligns with the daily pivot, then retrace downwards to collect liquidity, and finally, after touching the Pro Key level, move upwards.
3️⃣ Scenario 3: Price might not reach the Pro Key level directly, react at the upper order block, break it, and continue strongly upwards.
💡 Key Points:
Each scenario’s price reaction depends heavily on the session.
Using the AMD concept, positions can be taken once confirmation is received.
This analysis is valid until the end of the trading day, so always wait for confirmation before entering trades and manage your capital.
⚠️ Disclaimer: All trading decisions are your responsibility.
I’d love to hear your thoughts and see your analysis! Let’s grow and learn together! 🙌
#NASDAQ #TradingView
Trend-Following + Donchian Breakout (Regime Visualizer)Most traders chase trends too late or exit too early.
Quant systems don’t predict — they measure and adapt.
This educational chart uses the public Quant Trend + Donchian indicator to visualize how trend-following and breakout logic can define market regimes in NASDAQ 100 & S&P 500.
⚙️ Core Logic
• Trend — EMA(64 vs 256): approximates EWMAC trend state.
• Breakout — Donchian (200): identifies volatility-based range breaks.
• Volatility awareness — internally normalized to adjust behavior across markets.
📊 How to read it
• EMA fast > EMA slow and price near Donchian high → bullish trend regime.
• EMA fast < EMA slow and price near Donchian low → bearish regime.
• Inside channel with EMAs tangled → range or noise.
💡 Key insight
Regime definition + volatility scaling > entry cleverness.
Systems survive not by prediction, but by risk-controlled persistence .
This public view illustrates the foundations used in my more advanced risk-scaled quant strategies for NASDAQ and S&P indices.
#Quant #TrendFollowing #Breakout #Donchian #EMA #NASDAQ #SP500 #SystematicTrading #AlgorithmicTrading #Volatility
NAS100 1H🔹 Overall Outlook and Potential Price Movements
In the charts above, we have outlined the overall outlook and possible price movement paths.
As shown, each analysis highlights a key support or resistance zone near the current market price. The market’s reaction to these zones — whether a breakout or rejection — will likely determine the next direction of the price toward the specified levels.
⚠️ Important Note:
The purpose of these trading perspectives is to identify key upcoming price levels and assess potential market reactions. The provided analyses are not trading signals in any way.
✅ Recommendation for Use:
To make effective use of these analyses, it is advised to manually draw the marked zones on your chart. Then, on the 15-minute time frame, monitor the candlestick behavior and look for valid entry triggers before making any trading decisions.
US100: Long Signal with Entry/SL/TP
US100
- Classic bullish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Buy US100
Entry - 24770
Stop - 24724
Take - 24853
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
NASDAQ 100 Technical Analysis & ForecastNASDAQ 100 (NAS100) Technical Analysis & Forecast
Current Price: 24,781.00 | Date: October 4, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4
📊 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The NASDAQ 100 is currently trading at 24,781.00, showing resilience near all-time highs. This comprehensive analysis integrates multiple technical frameworks to provide actionable insights for both intraday and swing traders navigating the tech-heavy index.
Key Takeaway: NAS100 exhibits a cautious bullish bias with critical support at 24,650 and resistance at 25,100. Traders should monitor for potential consolidation before the next directional move.
🔍 MULTI-TIMEFRAME TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Monthly & Weekly Outlook (Swing Trading Perspective)
Long-term Trend Assessment:
Primary Trend: Bullish structure remains intact with higher highs and higher lows established since Q4 2024
Elliott Wave Count: The index appears to be in Wave 5 of a larger impulse structure from the 2022 lows, suggesting a mature bull cycle
Ichimoku Cloud (Weekly): Price trading above the cloud with Tenkan-sen (9-period) above Kijun-sen (26-period), confirming bullish momentum
Key Weekly Levels:
Major Resistance: 25,200 - 25,350 (psychological level and prior consolidation zone)
Major Support: 24,200 - 24,350 (former resistance turned support, 20-week EMA)
Critical Support: 23,500 (50-week EMA, must hold for bull trend continuation)
Gann Analysis:
Square of 9 calculation from recent lows suggests the next significant price target at 25,088 (45° angle)
Time cycle analysis indicates potential volatility window October 8-12, 2025
Price-time squaring suggests equilibrium at current levels, with break expected by mid-October
Daily Chart Analysis (Swing & Position Trading)
Trend & Momentum:
50-day SMA: 24,420 (acting as dynamic support)
200-day SMA: 23,680 (long-term trend anchor)
RSI (14): Currently at 64, showing bullish momentum without overbought conditions
MACD: Positive histogram with signal line above zero, indicating upward momentum
Chart Patterns Identified:
Ascending Triangle Formation: Consolidation between 24,650 support and 25,100 resistance suggests a bullish continuation pattern
Wyckoff Analysis: Signs of re-accumulation phase (Trading Range) after the spring rally, indicating smart money positioning
Harmonic Patterns:
Potential Bullish Bat pattern completing near 24,650, with PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone) offering strong support
Fibonacci retracement from recent swing shows 61.8% level at 24,580, aligning with multiple support factors
Volume Profile:
VWAP (Anchored from Sept 1): 24,695 - price maintaining above VWAP indicates institutional buying
Volume Analysis: Above-average volume on up days suggests strong bullish participation
High Volume Node (HVN): 24,750-24,800 represents fair value area
4-Hour Chart (Transitional Timeframe)
Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: Price trading in upper band (24,950), suggesting near-term overbought conditions but strong trend
RSI (14): 68 - approaching overbought but no bearish divergence yet
Stochastic Oscillator: %K at 82, %D at 76 - overbought territory, watch for crossover
Ichimoku System:
Price above cloud (bullish)
Lagging span above price (confirming bullish sentiment)
Cloud ahead is thin, suggesting potential resistance at 25,050-25,100
Support & Resistance:
Immediate Resistance: 24,950 → 25,100 (psychological and technical confluence)
Immediate Support: 24,650 → 24,500 (previous consolidation and EMA cluster)
1-Hour Chart (Intraday Swing Reference)
Short-term Momentum:
20 EMA: 24,745
50 EMA: 24,680
100 EMA: 24,620
Price trading above all key EMAs indicates short-term bullish control
Candlestick Patterns:
Recent formation of bullish engulfing patterns on hourly suggests buying pressure
No immediate reversal patterns detected
Warning Signs:
Potential Bear Trap: If price briefly breaks below 24,650 with low volume, expect quick recovery (trap for shorts)
Bull Trap Risk: Break above 25,100 without volume confirmation could reverse quickly
📈 INTRADAY TRADING STRATEGY (Week of October 4-11, 2025)
15-Minute & 30-Minute Chart Focus
Monday-Tuesday Bias: Consolidation expected between 24,650-24,950
Long Entry Strategies:
Setup 1: Support Bounce Play
Entry Zone: 24,650-24,700
Stop Loss: 24,580 (below harmonic PRZ)
Target 1: 24,850 (Risk:Reward 1:2)
Target 2: 24,950 (Risk:Reward 1:3.5)
Confirmation: RSI (15-min) oversold below 30, bullish candlestick reversal pattern
Setup 2: Breakout Play
Entry: Break and retest of 24,950 with volume
Stop Loss: 24,870
Target 1: 25,050
Target 2: 25,150 (ascending triangle measured move)
Confirmation: Volume 20% above average, 15-min candle close above 24,950
Setup 3: VWAP Reversion
Entry: Price touches VWAP (currently ~24,695) from above on 5-min chart
Stop Loss: 24,650
Target: 24,800-24,850
Confirmation: Volume spike on touch, bullish divergence on 5-min RSI
Short Entry Strategies:
Setup 1: Resistance Rejection
Entry Zone: 25,050-25,100
Stop Loss: 25,150
Target 1: 24,850
Target 2: 24,700
Confirmation: Bearish engulfing or shooting star on 15-min chart, RSI divergence
Setup 2: Failed Breakout (Bull Trap)
Entry: Price breaks 25,100 but closes back below within 2 candles (15-min)
Stop Loss: 25,130
Target: 24,800
Confirmation: High volume on breakout but no follow-through
🎯 SWING TRADING STRATEGY (October-November 2025)
Bullish Scenario (60% Probability)
Primary Strategy: Ascending Triangle Breakout
Entry Plan:
Aggressive Entry: Current levels (24,780) with tight risk management
Conservative Entry: Pullback to 24,500-24,650 support zone
Breakout Entry: Confirmed break above 25,100 with volume
Position Sizing:
Risk 1-2% of capital per trade
Scale in: 50% at first entry, 30% on confirmation, 20% on continuation
Price Targets:
Target 1: 25,350 (measured move from triangle)
Target 2: 25,800 (Fibonacci extension 1.618)
Target 3: 26,200 (psychological and Gann Square of 9 target)
Stop Loss Management:
Initial Stop: Below 24,500
Trail Stop: Move to breakeven once Target 1 is reached
Final Stop: Trail with 4-hour 20 EMA
Time Horizon: 3-6 weeks
Bearish Scenario (40% Probability)
Invalidation Triggers:
Break below 24,500 on daily close
Head and Shoulders pattern develops (left shoulder at 25,200, head forming now, right shoulder anticipated)
MACD bearish crossover on daily chart
Short Strategy (Swing):
Entry Conditions:
Daily close below 24,500
RSI breaks below 50 on daily
Death cross forming (50 SMA crossing below 200 SMA - currently not present)
Targets:
Target 1: 24,200 (weekly support)
Target 2: 23,850 (50-day SMA)
Target 3: 23,500 (major support and 50-week EMA)
Stop Loss: Above 24,800
📉 RISK FACTORS & MARKET CONTEXT
Technical Risk Factors:
Overextension: Weekly RSI approaching 70 suggests limited upside without consolidation
Volume Divergence: If breakout occurs with declining volume, suspect false move
Elliott Wave: If in Wave 5, expect exhaustion and correction before new highs
External Market Considerations:
Macroeconomic Factors to Monitor:
Federal Reserve policy statements (October FOMC meeting expectations)
Q3 2025 earnings season for mega-cap tech (starting mid-October)
Geopolitical tensions and their impact on risk sentiment
US Dollar strength affecting multinational tech companies
Sector-Specific Catalysts:
AI technology developments and adoption rates
Semiconductor supply chain updates
Regulatory environment for big tech
Interest rate trajectory impacts on growth stocks
🛡️ RISK MANAGEMENT RULES
For All Trading Timeframes:
Position Sizing: Never risk more than 2% of capital on single trade
Stop Loss: Mandatory on every trade, no exceptions
Take Profits: Scale out at predetermined levels (50% at T1, 30% at T2, 20% at T3)
Maximum Daily Loss: Stop trading if down 4% in single day
Correlation Risk: NAS100 correlates with QQQ, SPX, and major tech stocks - monitor for divergences
Trading Journal Requirements:
Document all entries with screenshots
Record reasoning and technical setup
Track hit rate and average risk:reward
Weekly performance review and strategy adjustment
📅 WEEKLY INTRADAY ROADMAP
Monday, October 7:
Bias: Neutral to slightly bullish
Key Level: 24,750 (Friday's close area)
Strategy: Wait for direction after Asian/European session
Action: If holds above 24,700, look for longs on 15-min pullbacks
Tuesday, October 8:
Bias: Testing resistance at 24,950
Gann Time Cycle: Potential volatility day
Strategy: Breakout or rejection trades
Action: High-probability setups at extremes
Wednesday, October 9:
Bias: Continuation or reversal confirmation day
Strategy: Follow Tuesday's direction with momentum
Action: Trail stops on profitable positions
Thursday, October 10:
Bias: Mid-week profit-taking possible
Strategy: Mean reversion trades if overextended
Action: Watch for VWAP reversion setups
Friday, October 11:
Bias: Week-end positioning, reduced size
Strategy: Close most intraday positions before weekend
Action: Only high-conviction swing trades held over weekend
🎓 INDICATOR CONFLUENCE SUMMARY
Bullish Signals (Current):
✅ Price above 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs
✅ Ichimoku cloud bullish on daily and weekly
✅ MACD positive on multiple timeframes
✅ Volume profile shows accumulation
✅ Ascending triangle continuation pattern
✅ Gann angles supporting upward trajectory
Bearish Warnings:
⚠️ RSI approaching overbought on 4-hour
⚠️ Potential Elliott Wave 5 exhaustion
⚠️ Bollinger Bands showing overextension
⚠️ Stochastic overbought on shorter timeframes
Neutral/Watch:
🔍 Volume needs to increase on breakout attempts
🔍 Wyckoff accumulation phase requires confirmation
🔍 Head and Shoulders pattern could develop if resistance holds
🎯 FINAL TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS
For Intraday Traders:
Focus on the 24,650-25,100 range for the next week. Best opportunities exist at range extremes with clear risk management. Favor long setups given the broader bullish context, but remain nimble and respect stop losses.
Best Intraday Timeframes: 5-min for entries, 15-min for trend confirmation, 1-hour for bias
For Swing Traders:
The ascending triangle offers an excellent risk:reward setup. Consider building positions on pullbacks to 24,500-24,650 with stops below 24,450. Target the 25,350-25,800 zone over the next 4-6 weeks. Monitor daily candle closes for trend confirmation.
Best Swing Timeframes: Daily for entries, 4-hour for momentum, weekly for trend validation
⚡ KEY LEVELS SUMMARY CARD
Immediate Levels (Intraday):
🔴 Strong Resistance: 25,100-25,150
🟠 Resistance: 24,950-25,000
🔵 Current Price: 24,781
🟢 Support: 24,650-24,700
🟢 Strong Support: 24,500-24,550
Major Levels (Swing):
🔴 Major Resistance: 25,200-25,350
🔴 Psychological: 25,000
🟢 Major Support: 24,200-24,350
🟢 Critical Support: 23,500-23,680
📝 DISCLAIMER
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. Trading financial instruments carries substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with licensed financial advisors before making trading decisions. The author is not responsible for any trading losses incurred based on this analysis.
Next Update: October 11, 2025
Analysis Valid Through: October 18, 2025
Prepared using advanced technical analysis incorporating Wyckoff, Elliott Wave, Gann, Harmonic Patterns, Ichimoku, and modern momentum indicators.RetryClaude can make mistakes. Please double-check responses.
NSDQ100 Key Trading Levels Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 25090
Resistance Level 2: 25250
Resistance Level 3: 25400
Support Level 1: 24800
Support Level 2: 24700
Support Level 3: 24620
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.