WTI extends drop after 200 MA testAfter printing an inverted hammer off its 200-day average on Friday, we have seen a sharp slide in oil prices today.
Reports that the OPEC+ plans another increase to output in November is not helping the cause, with the market already fearful over excessive supply and weak demand growth.
Key support at 61.50 to 62.00 area was tested multiple times last week and it held. A break below that zone this week could be pivotal, if seen.
Resistance seen at 65.00 now, then the area between 66.50-67.00 - marking the 200 day MA.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Trade ideas
Overbought NO where in Sight I keep seeing people stating that Crude is overbought but on the 1day time frame it is just beginning.
If it were me I would be mindful of placing short orders for oil at this time and continue to look for long opportunities during the NY sessions.
Thats just me though ๐คท๐ฝโโ๏ธ
Supply and demand dynamics are dominating the oil marketSupply and demand dynamics are dominating the oil market
Technical Analysis
USOIL is consolidating within a horizontal channel between 61.50 and 66.00. The multi-period EMA is converging, indicating an accumulation phase before a breakout, in which the direction could determine the next trend.
Since the preceding trend was a downtrend and the price remains within a broader descending channel, the bias is more to the downside. Therefore, any rebound near the channel's upper bound is seen as a potential opportunity.
If USOIL fails to break above the horizontal channel's upper bound at 66.00, the price may reverse downwards to retest the lower bound around 61.50, with the potential to break lower towards the year's low of 55.00.
However, if USOIL breaks above the upper bound of the sideways range, it could test the upper bound of the broader descending channel around 70.50.
Fundamental Analysis
WTI crude oil prices are influenced by a mix of rising supply and price-supporting geopolitical events.
The resumption of crude exports from Iraqi Kurdistan, after a 2.5-year halt, is adding to the global supply, starting at 180,000โ190,000 barrels per day (bpd) and expected to rise to around 230,000 bpd. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is considering a production increase of at least 137,000 bpd, reinforcing concerns about a year-end supply surplus.
However, news of attacks on energy infrastructure in Eastern Europe and measures to restrict fuel exports spark a short-term bullish momentum and increasing volatility.
Despite this, the factors truly dominating oil prices are weak demand and excess supply. Geopolitics remains an event risk with short-term, one-time effects. Therefore, prices continue to face headwinds overall.
Additionally, prices may fluctuate based on upcoming weekly inventory reports and dynamic production news that could exert further pressure.
Analysis by: Krisada Yoonaisil, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
OIL Technical & Order Flow AnalysisOur analysis is based on a multi-timeframe top-down approach and fundamental analysis.
Based on our assessment, the price is expected to return to the monthly level.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis may change at any time without notice and is solely intended to assist traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no obligation to act on it, nor should you.
Please support our analysis with a boost or comment!
USOIL: Breaks $64.75 โ Is a retest of $66 and higher level?This is my previous analysis โ feel free to take a look for reference.
* Trend: assessed using at least three trend indicators, with market structure as the primary guide.
** Weak or Reversal Signals: Assessed based on one of our criteria for trend reversal signals.
*** Support/Resistance: Selected from multiple factors โ static (Swing High, Swing Low, etc.), dynamic (EMA, MA, etc.), psychological (Fibonacci, RSI, etc.) โ and determined based on the traderโs discretion.
**** Our advice takes into account all factors, including both fundamental and technical analysis. It is not intended as a profit target. We hope it can serve as a reference to help you trade more effectively. This advice is for informational purposes only and we assume no responsibility for any trading results based on it.
Please like and comment below to support our traders. Your reactions will motivate us to do more analysis in the future ๐โจ
USOIL: Range-bound setup with upside test before downside risk
* Trend: assessed using at least three trend indicators, with market structure as the primary guide.
** Weak or Reversal Signals: Assessed based on one of our criteria for trend reversal signals.
*** Support/Resistance: Selected from multiple factors โ static (Swing High, Swing Low, etc.), dynamic (EMA, MA, etc.), psychological (Fibonacci, RSI, etc.) โ and determined based on the traderโs discretion.
**** Our advice takes into account all factors, including both fundamental and technical analysis. It is not intended as a profit target. We hope it can serve as a reference to help you trade more effectively. This advice is for informational purposes only and we assume no responsibility for any trading results based on it.
Please like and comment below to support our traders. Your reactions will motivate us to do more analysis in the future ๐โจ
USOIL Trading Opportunity! SELL!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for USOIL is below:
The market is trading on 65.18 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 64.22
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
โโโโโโโโโโโ
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Crude oil review -DAILY- 29/09/2025Oil prices slipped at the start of the week as expectations of another OPEC+ production hike in November added to oversupply worries. West Texas Intermediate hovered near $65, with the alliance led by Saudi Arabia considering raising output beyond the already scheduled October increase of 137,000 barrels a day. Most members, aside from Saudi Arabia, are already at their production ceilings, meaning actual supply growth will likely fall short of official targets. Still, Chinaโs strong crude purchases have helped prices remain relatively supported. The International Energy Agency warned of a record surplus in 2026 as OPEC+ revives more supply while rival producers expand output. Goldman Sachs projects crude could slide into the mid-$50s next year despite ongoing Chinese stockpiling.
On the technical side, crude oil prices have been trading in a sideways channel formation with upper and lower boundaries around $66 and $62, respectively. Currently, the price is testing the resistance of the 100-day moving average, just below the upper boundary of the channel. The Stochastic oscillator is near extreme overbought levels, while the moving averages validate an overall bearish trend.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness
USOIL H1 โ Trading Plan I SEP/29/2025Crude Oil (USOIL) is currently consolidating between the POC zone (65.14) and the Support/Resistance area (64.70 โ 64.80). Market structure shows both bullish and bearish possibilities depending on whether these key levels hold or break
Here are 4 possible scenarios with entry signals to watch:
๐ Scenario 1 โ Rebound from Support/Resistance
Watch zone: 64.70 โ 64.80 (Support/Resistance).
Price action: Bullish reversal candlestick (Pin bar, Bullish engulfing) with volume confirmation.
Trading signal:
๐ Buy around 64.70 โ 64.80
๐ฏ TP1: 65.14 (POC zone)
๐ฏ TP2: 65.56 โ 65.79 (Supply zone)
โ SL: below 64.40 (Demand zone).
๐ Scenario 2 โ Breakout above Supply Zone
Watch zone: 65.56 โ 65.79 (Supply zone).
Price action: H1 candle closes above 65.80 with strong volume.
Trading signal:
๐ Buy breakout above 65.80
๐ฏ TP1: 66.20
๐ฏ TP2: 66.80
โ SL: below 65.40.
๐ Scenario 3 โ Breakdown of Support/Resistance
Watch zone: 64.70 โ 64.80.
Price action: H1 candle closes below 64.70 with strong bearish momentum.
Trading signal:
๐ Sell on pullback to 64.70
๐ฏ TP1: 64.40 (Demand zone)
๐ฏ TP2: 63.80
โ SL: above 65.10.
๐ Scenario 4 โ Breakdown of Demand Zone
Watch zone: 64.20 โ 64.40 (Demand zone).
Price action: H1 candle closes below 64.20 with increasing volume.
Trading signal:
๐ Sell breakout below 64.20
๐ฏ TP1: 63.60
๐ฏ TP2: 63.00
โ SL: above 64.60.
๐ Summary:
Holding above 64.70 favors Buy setups.
Breaking below 64.70 favors Sell setups.
Key short-term battle zone: 65.56 โ 65.79 Supply area.
โ ๏ธ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves significant risk, and you should only trade with capital you can afford to lose. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
Crude Oil (WTI) Technical OutlookCrude Oil (WTI) has recently tested a critical resistance zone around $65, showing strong upside momentum after weeks of consolidation. The chart structure suggests a potential bullish breakout, with price action forming higher lows and pressing against a key supply level.
If WTI holds above $65, the next upside targets lie at:
$67.80 โ intermediate resistance
$68.98 โ major technical level aligned with previous supply
$70.50 โ $71.00 โ key psychological resistance and prior swing high
A short-term retest of $65 may act as confirmation before continuation toward the $70+ region. Failure to hold above $64.50 could invalidate the bullish scenario and open a move back toward $62.
This analysis highlights institutional order flow dynamics and key liquidity levels, indicating that crude oil may be setting up for a significant directional move. Traders should watch for clean breaks and retests at major support/resistance zones before positioning.
๐ Summary:
Bias: Bullish above $65
Targets: $67.80 โ $68.98 โ $70.50+
Risk: Breakdown below $64.50
USOIL: Bears Will Push
The analysis of the USOIL chart clearly shows us that the pair is finally about to tank due to the rising pressure from the sellers.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
โค๏ธ Please, support our work with like & comment! โค๏ธ
USOIL Is Bullish! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 65.184.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 68.737 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Crude Oil (WTI) Short Setup Bearish Reversal from Rising ChannelAsset: CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)
Timeframe: 1 Hour (1H)
Pattern: Rising channel (ascending parallel channel)
Trade Type: Short (Sell) Setup
Risk/Reward: The trade is planned based on a channel breakdown, targeting a move down to the base of the move.
๐ Key Trade Levels
Type Price Level
Entry 6,709.7 โ 6,711.0 (near upper channel resistance)
Stop Loss 6,762.0 โ 6,762.3 (above recent highs)
Target 6,353.6 โ 6,353.8 (near recent support)
๐ง Trade Rationale
Rising Channel Break: Price is currently within a rising channel, but recent candles show rejection at the upper boundary.
Fakeout Trap: There's a sketched projection suggesting a false breakout to the upside, followed by a sharp reversal into a short move.
Entry Zone: The trade is planned if price retests the upper zone (entry area), which aligns with the top of the channel.
Target Zone: The projected target is around the bottom of the channel or just below, implying a full retracement of the previous bullish leg.
Risk Management: Stop loss is placed slightly above the upper boundary to avoid getting stopped out by minor wicks.
๐ Technical Insights
Bearish Momentum Potential: If price fails to hold above the channel and re-enters with strong bearish volume, it supports a short entry.
Volume Analysis Needed: A confirmation with increasing volume on the breakdown would strengthen the setup.
Trend Reversal Signal: This setup may be hinting at a trend reversal or at least a significant pullback from the current upward trend.
โ
Conclusion
This is a high-probability short trade setup based on:
A break/retest of an ascending channel.
A potential false breakout trap.
Defined entry, stop loss, and take profit levels offering a solid risk/reward ratio.
USOIL: The Market Is Looking Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse USOIL togetherโบ๏ธ
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 65.189 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
โค๏ธSending you lots of Love and Hugsโค๏ธ
USOIL: 70$ BREAKOUT ROCKET FUELED! Black Gold Rally ๐ข๏ธ USOIL: 70$ BREAKOUT ROCKET FUELED! Black Gold Rally ๐
Current Price: $65.465 | Date: Sept 27, 2025 โฐ
๐ INTRADAY TRADING SETUPS (Next 5 Days)
๐ฏ BULLISH SCENARIO
Entry Zone: $65.20 - $65.60 ๐
Stop Loss: $64.80 ๐
Target 1: $66.50 ๐ฏ
Target 2: $67.30 ๐
๐ฏ BEARISH SCENARIO
Entry Zone: $65.80 - $66.20 ๐
Stop Loss: $66.60 ๐
Target 1: $64.70 ๐ฏ
Target 2: $64.00 ๐
๐ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BREAKDOWN
๐ KEY INDICATORS STATUS:
RSI (14): 59.4 โก Bullish Momentum Zone
Bollinger Bands: Mid-Band Breakout ๐ฅ
VWAP: $65.35 - Acting as Springboard ๐ช
EMA 50: $64.80 โ
Golden Cross Setup
Volume: Institutional Interest Rising ๐
๐ WAVE ANALYSIS:
Elliott Wave: Wave 3 Impulse Loading ๐
Fibonacci Target: $68.50 (161.8%) ๐ฏ
๐ HARMONIC PATTERNS:
Bullish Bat Completion at $64.90 โจ
ABCD Pattern targeting $67.20 ๐
โ๏ธ SWING TRADING OUTLOOK (1-4 Weeks)
๐ BULLISH TARGETS:
Psychological: $70.00 ๐
Weekly Resistance: $68.80 ๐
Gann Level: $69.25 โญ
๐ BEARISH INVALIDATION:
Weekly Support: $63.50 โ ๏ธ
Critical Break: $62.00 ๐จ
๐ญ MARKET STRUCTURE:
Trend: Ascending Triangle ๐ช
Momentum: Energy Building ๐ฅ
Wyckoff Phase: Accumulation End ๐
Ichimoku: Bullish Cloud Entry ๐ข
โฝ OIL MARKET DYNAMICS:
Supply Cuts: OPEC+ Extensions ๐ข๏ธ
Demand Growth: Winter Season ๐จ๏ธ
Inventory Draws: Bullish Data ๐
Geopolitical Premium: Risk-On โ๏ธ
โก RISK MANAGEMENT:
Max Risk per Trade: 2% ๐ก๏ธ
R:R Ratio: Minimum 1:2 โ๏ธ
Breakout Confirmation: $66.00 hold ๐
๐ FUNDAMENTAL CATALYSTS:
EIA Reports Supporting Bulls ๐
Middle East Tensions Premium ๐
China Demand Recovery Signs ๐ญ
US Dollar Weakness Helping ๐ต
๐ฅ CRITICAL LEVELS TO WATCH:
Breakout Zone: $66.00-$66.30 ๐ฅ
Support Cluster: $65.00 | $64.50 | $64.00 ๐ก๏ธ
Resistance: $66.50 | $67.50 | $68.00 ๐ง
๐ฏ FINAL VERDICT:
WTI primed for $70 EXPLOSIVE RALLY! ๐
Black Gold showing institutional love! ๐
Supply-demand imbalance = bullish fuel! โฝ
Trade Management: Buy dips above $65.00 ๐ฐ
Breakout Watch: $66.30 decisive level! ๐
---
โ ๏ธ Disclaimer: Commodity trading carries high risk. Use appropriate position sizing. Educational analysis only.
For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade)
I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors.
Sincerely,
Shunya.Trade
Website: shunya dot trade
๐ Follow Oil Market Updates | ๐ฌ Drop Your $70 Oil Timeline
WTI 4H๐น Overall Outlook and Potential Price Movements
In the charts above, we have outlined the overall outlook and possible price movement paths.
As shown, each analysis highlights a key support or resistance zone near the current market price. The marketโs reaction to these zones โ whether a breakout or rejection โ will likely determine the next direction of the price toward the specified levels.
โ ๏ธ Important Note:
The purpose of these trading perspectives is to identify key upcoming price levels and assess potential market reactions. The provided analyses are not trading signals in any way.
โ
Recommendation for Use:
To make effective use of these analyses, it is advised to manually draw the marked zones on your chart. Then, on the 15-minute time frame, monitor the candlestick behavior and look for valid entry triggers before making any trading decisions.
OIL (WTI) โ Trading Plan | Sep 26, 2025๐ Technical Analysis of OIL (WTI) โ Sep 26, 2025
1. Main Trend
- On the H1 timeframe, oil is in a medium-term uptrend, reflected by the ascending trendline extending from Sept 24 until now.
- Price has just had a strong breakout above the weekly VAH (65.45), confirming buying pressure dominance.
2. Key Zones
Resistance:
- 65.80 โ 66.00: short-term resistance recently rejected.
- 66.50 โ 67.00: stronger resistance zone, overlapping the previous swing high.
Support:
- 65.45 (VAH): nearest support; as long as price stays above this, the uptrend is reinforced.
- 65.10 โ 64.60 (POC): central support, balance area.
- 63.00 โ 62.90 (VAL): deeper support, previous volume low.
3. Price Action
-- Price had a strong breakout candle up to 66.00 but was rejected, now pulling back slightly toward VAH 65.45.
- The breakout was accompanied by large volume โ buyers are in control, but short-term profit-taking pressure is appearing.
- If price holds above VAH, the uptrend will likely continue. If it falls back below POC 64.60, selling pressure may return.
4. Candlestick Pattern
- A rejection candle appeared at 66.00 with a long upper wick โ short-term bearish signal.
- However, candles around VAH show small bodies โ market is waiting for pullback confirmation.
5. Trading Plan (in order of priority)
๐ Scenario 1 โ Buy with the trend (priority):
- Buy if price retests VAH 65.45 successfully or around POC 65.10 โ 64.60.
- TP: 66.00 โ 66.50 โ extended to 67.00.
- SL: below 64.40.
๐ Scenario 2 โ Buy breakout continuation:
- If price breaks above 66.00 with a strong H1 candle.
- Enter Buy on breakout.
- TP: 66.50 โ 67.00.
- SL: below 65.45.
๐ Scenario 3 โ Short-term Sell (only if clear signals appear):
- If price fails to hold VAH 65.45 and breaks POC 64.60.
- Enter Sell with momentum.
- TP: 63.00 โ 62.90 (VAL).
- SL: above 65.80.
๐ Summary:
- Priority remains on Buy as long as price holds above VAH 65.45.
- If breakout above 66.00 succeeds โ continue Buying with the trend.
- Only consider Selling if price drops below POC 64.60.
๐ If you find this analysis useful, donโt forget to hit like ๐ and drop a comment ๐ฌ to support us in delivering even better insights! Or join my channel to get free signal.
OIL (WTI) โ Trading Plan | Sep 25, 20251. Main Trend
- On the H1 timeframe, crude oil is still maintaining an uptrend with a higher high โ higher low structure.
- However, the short-term trend is showing signs of losing momentum, as price has broken below the H1 uptrend line and is now oscillating around the POC zone.
2. Key Zones
Resistance:
- 64.95 (CW VAH): Strong resistance, repeatedly tested but not yet broken.
- 65.20 โ 65.50: Extended zone if a breakout succeeds.
Support:
- 64.70 โ 64.65 (CW POC): Key price zone, where price is currently consolidating.
- 62.85 (CW VAL): Deeper support, overlapping with the previous volume base.
3. Price Action
- After breaking up to 64.95, price failed to sustain bullish momentum, forming multiple upper-wick candles โ selling pressure dominates.
- Currently, price has fallen below the H1 trendline and is retesting the POC zone (64.65 โ 64.70).
+If POC holds, price may rebound to retest 64.95.
+If POC breaks, price is likely to drop deeper towards 63.50 โ 62.85 (VAL).
4. Candlestick Pattern
- Several long lower-wick candles have appeared around the POC โ showing defensive buying pressure.
- However, recent bearish candles have relatively large bodies โ signals remain unclear, confirmation is needed.
5. Trading Plan
๐ Scenario 1 โ Buy with the main trend (priority):
-Buy around 64.65 โ 64.70 (POC) if there is a clear bullish reversal signal (pin bar / bullish engulfing).
- Target: 64.95 โ 65.20 โ further to 65.50.
๐ Scenario 2 โ Sell if POC breaks:
- Sell if price breaks decisively below 64.60 and fails on retest.
- Target: 63.50 โ 62.85 (VAL).
๐ Summary: Crude oil remains in a long-term uptrend, but short-term momentum is weakening. The decision point lies at POC 64.65 โ 64.70:
+If it holds โ Buy up.
+If it breaks โ Sell down.
๐ If you find this analysis useful, donโt forget to hit like ๐ and drop a comment ๐ฌ to support us in delivering even better insights! Or join my channel to get free signal.
Oil Bulls Beware: 65.5 Could Be the Turning Point๐ฒ NFX Oil Trade Alert โ Quick View
GBEBROKERS:USOIL โ Resistance Test in Play
๐ Current Level: 65.00
๐ Next Target: 65.45โ65.90 (38.2% Fib + Supply-Demand Zone)
โ ๏ธ RSI likely to hit overbought at this zone โ potential short setup
๐ Bias: Bearish rejection at 65.5 (preferred scenario) โ Target back to 62
๐ Catalyst: Bullish ECONOMICS:USGPRO EIA report, but effect already priced in from Mondayโs rally.
๐ Oil Trade Analysis โ Detailed Breakdown
FX:USOIL tested 65.00 after breaking out of the 64.1โ64.5 SR zone postโEIA report (23.6% Fib retracement). This marks the second bullish report in a row, but this one was weaker, and the reaction looks mostly priced in after the rally from Monday to today.
Currently, price is hovering around 65.00, which is acting as a minor support. While this level may hold temporarily, itโs unlikely to sustain against broader resistance at 65.5.
Iโm expecting price to push further towards the 38.2% Fib retracement (65.45โ65.90), which also aligns with a major supply-demand zone. At this level, RSI will likely flash overbought, making it my preferred area to look for shorts.
๐ Scenarios
Path A โ Bearish Rejection (Most Probable)
Resistance holds at 65.5 zone.
Expectation: Sharp rejection โ price retraces back to 62 (lower band of range).
Path B โ Extended Rally (Less Probable)
Price breaks and sustains above 65.9.
Would invalidate immediate short setup and open path towards higher Fib levels.
โ๏ธ Fundamentals
While the EIA report acted as a short-term catalyst, supply hike remains a heavy bearish overhang. Nothing has changed on the bigger picture.
๐ฌ Game Plan
Watching closely for clear rejection at 65.5. Thatโs where Iโll be pulling the trigger for shorts.